Turnovers relative to contributions.
Posted: Thu Feb 29, 2024 8:20 pm
Passing and attempted scoring are associated with turnovers among players. Other boxscore stats are as well.
I came up with an 'expected TO' formula that minimizes differences with actual TO, based on all recorded stats.
Here are the league leaders in 'excess TO' according to error size (actual-minus-expected TO)Surprised to see Curry here, and it's not an especially bad TO% for him this year.
Smart has the highest TO/exp ratio, almost twice as many TO as should be. He does in fact have career high TO% and TO/100.
Players who don't turn it over so much:This group is 4.5 years older
I came up with an 'expected TO' formula that minimizes differences with actual TO, based on all recorded stats.
Here are the league leaders in 'excess TO' according to error size (actual-minus-expected TO)
Code: Select all
err excess turnover Pos Age Tm TO exp
71 Victor Wembanyama 5 20 SAS 162 91
56 Trae Young 1 25 ATL 210 154
47 Scoot Henderson 1 19 POR 122 75
45 Stephen Curry 1 35 GSW 143 98
38 Anthony Edwards 2 22 MIN 165 127
37 Karl-Anthony Towns 4 28 MIN 146 109
37 Jaden Ivey 2 21 DET 119 82
36 Jalen Suggs 2 22 ORL 92 56
35 Darius Garland 1 24 CLE 92 57
34 Julius Randle 4 29 NYK 159 125
33 Cade Cunningham 1 22 DET 152 119
31 Jordan Clarkson 2 31 UTA 118 87
30 Marcus Smart 1 29 MEM 62 32
28 Russell Westbrook 1 35 LAC 109 81
27 LaMelo Ball 1 22 CHO 83 56
27 Zach Collins 5 26 SAS 87 60
. avg 2.1 25.6
Smart has the highest TO/exp ratio, almost twice as many TO as should be. He does in fact have career high TO% and TO/100.
Players who don't turn it over so much:
Code: Select all
err low turnover Pos Age Tm TO exp
-60 DeMar DeRozan 3 34 CHI 79 139
-49 Shai G-Alexander 1 25 OKC 112 161
-48 Tyrese Maxey 1 23 PHI 75 123
-43 Tyus Jones 1 27 WAS 47 90
-32 Fred VanVleet 1 29 HOU 75 107
-29 Spencer Dinwiddie 1 30 BRK 62 91
-28 Anthony Davis 5 30 LAL 104 132
-25 Jalen Brunson 1 27 NYK 115 140
-24 Tobias Harris 4 31 PHI 70 94
-23 Nikola Vučević 5 33 CHI 71 94
-23 Mike Conley 1 36 MIN 50 73
-23 Tim Hardaway 3 31 DAL 46 69
-21 Kawhi Leonard 3 32 LAC 75 96
-21 Jimmy Butler 4 34 MIA 63 84
. avg 2.4 30.1