Page 1 of 4
2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sat Apr 20, 2024 12:55 pm
by Mike G
John Hollinger picks, higher seed on the left:
Code: Select all
OKC 4-1 NOP OKC 4-3 Dal
Den 4-1 LAL Den 4-2 Phx
Min 2-4 Phx
LAC 3-4 Dal OKC 2-4 Den
Bos 4-0 Mia Bos 4-1 Cle
NYK 4-2 Phl NYK 4-2 Mil
Mil 4-3 Ind
Cle 4-2 Orl Bos 4-2 NYK
. Bos 4-3 Den
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 2:41 pm
by Mike G
Leaders thru 2 games, in eWins:
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.56 Nikola Jokić Den 41 .678 31.0 15.2 6.0 1.8 1.6 .0 3.32
.52 Luka Dončić Dal 44 .551 27.5 7.3 6.0 .8 3.2 .4 2.83
.48 Pascal Siakam Ind 39 .670 37.4 10.5 2.8 .5 .5 .9 2.98
.48 James Harden LAC 41 .649 25.7 3.7 6.8 .5 1.0 1.4 2.82
.44 Jarrett Allen Cle 37 .593 20.6 18.4 2.6 2.0 1.0 1.5 2.86
.43 Shai G-A OKC 37 .629 37.9 4.6 4.0 1.2 2.6 .0 2.77
.42 Anthony Davis LAL 42 .660 29.8 10.8 2.4 .4 2.7 2.2 2.38
.41 Kyrie Irving Dal 41 .635 26.5 5.5 3.1 2.2 2.0 .0 2.45
.40 Donovan Mitchell Cle 36 .552 35.8 5.0 3.7 2.0 3.7 .5 2.65
.37 Chet Holmgren OKC 31 .661 30.4 11.3 1.6 .7 2.5 4.2 2.93
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.36 Joel Embiid Phl 38 .500 27.7 8.1 4.8 .9 2.0 .5 2.29
.36 Tyrese Maxey Phl 44 .654 29.6 4.3 4.9 .0 3.0 .8 1.95
.35 LeBron James LAL 40 .646 26.7 6.4 7.2 1.4 4.3 1.4 2.14
.34 Anthony Edwards Min 37 .585 27.9 7.6 6.6 2.5 4.8 .5 2.22
.34 Damian Lillard Mil 39 .651 34.5 4.8 3.0 .5 2.2 .0 2.09
.30 Rudy Gobert Min 39 .762 20.5 13.1 1.8 1.4 1.0 .5 1.86
.29 Josh Hart NYK 45 .614 18.1 11.6 1.8 1.2 1.8 .8 1.56
.29 Jayson Tatum Bos 41 .554 23.0 9.0 5.1 .8 2.9 .4 1.68
.27 Ivica Zubac LAC 34 .516 17.7 15.0 .5 1.1 1.9 .6 1.96
.27 Jalen Williams OKC 38 .548 22.9 6.1 4.9 1.8 3.1 .0 1.73
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.27 Jaylen Brown Bos 36 .625 27.3 9.1 1.8 .5 2.2 1.0 1.79
.26 Paul George LAC 37 .579 23.7 4.0 3.3 1.0 2.3 .5 1.72
.26 Jo Valančiūnas NOP 26 .604 23.6 19.8 2.1 .5 3.6 .0 2.41
.26 Michael Porter Den 38 .732 20.7 8.6 .4 1.4 .0 1.0 1.63
.25 Evan Mobley Cle 34 .541 21.9 9.5 1.7 .5 2.2 2.1 1.76
All the usual suspects and no real upstarts.
#26-40: Myles Turner, Towns, Jamal Murray, Adebayo, Middleton, Durant, Hartenstein, Brunson, F Wagner, McDaniels, Herro, Garland, Alexander-Walker, B Lopez, Banchero
Some slow starters, must-do-betters:
Code: Select all
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
-.11 Norman Powell LAC 28 .344 4.7 3.0 .6 .6 1.4 .0 -.95
-.07 Amir Coffey LAC 19 .500 6.8 2.8 .9 .0 2.2 .0 -.93
-.07 Dante Exum Dal 11 .250 2.8 3.8 .0 .0 3.0 1.4 -1.48
-.07 Derrick Jones Dal 25 .417 5.8 5.5 .0 .0 1.6 2.2 -.65
-.07 Daniel Gafford Dal 12 .188 2.7 1.4 1.5 .0 1.7 1.5 -1.35
-.07 Rui Hachimura LAL 35 .385 3.7 4.2 .4 .0 .5 .0 -.46
-.06 Jose Alvarado NOP 18 .208 2.7 1.0 2.1 .7 1.9 .0 -.76
-.05 Buddy Hield Phl 13 .200 1.4 1.2 1.1 .0 1.4 .0 -1.01
-.05 Georges Niang Cle 19 .192 2.9 2.6 1.8 .9 .9 .9 -.62
-.04 Maxi Kleber Dal 27 .450 4.7 5.1 2.4 .0 1.4 1.2 -.39
eWin per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
-.04 Gabe Vincent LAL 12 .000 .0 2.7 2.1 1.4 2.9 .0 -.88
-.04 Nicolas Batum Phl 29 .500 4.6 4.0 1.0 .0 .6 .6 -.30
-.03 Cole Anthony Orl 14 .154 2.3 6.6 .0 1.2 1.2 .0 -.53
-.03 Reggie Jackson Den 9 .167 3.0 1.8 4.1 .0 4.0 .0 -.82
-.03 Markelle Fultz Orl 10 .100 .7 4.7 1.6 .0 .0 .0 -.64
-.02 Sp Dinwiddie LAL 12 .000 .0 2.7 2.1 2.8 1.4 .0 -.50
-.01 A.J. Green Mil 11 .333 5.8 4.9 1.3 .0 1.9 .0 -.27
-.01 Ha Highsmith Mia 26 .450 5.1 4.5 1.6 .7 .8 .0 -.09
-.01 Kentavious C-P Den 36 .474 8.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 .5 -.06
-.01 Wendell Carter Orl 17 .375 8.1 6.6 2.9 .0 2.1 .0 -.09
Gafford has had, by all measures, his 2 worst games of the season.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 5:45 pm
by Crow
Paul George, 22nd. Lower rebounding than all but 1 in front of him. Lower assists than 60% ahead of him. Not fully what that guy is supposed to be. Maybe you don't expect Siakam level results but it is in within realm of suggestion / possibility.
Holmgren 10th, J Williams 20th. Very good for very young. How much improvement to hope for or expect?
Banchero 40th? I.e. average 3rd best guy on team, here. So far.
Rockets didn't want J Allen. Uh huh.
Doncic, lowest efg% in top 10 and 4th lowest in top 20.
Edwards, 14th here.
Clippers and Mavs completely divide up the worst 5 performers. Mavs add another in bottom 10. Give the Coaches that note. Lakers with 3 in bottom 20. Ensure performance... or you didn't. All former NBA players, fwiw.
Nuggets with 2 lightly in bottom 20. A concern. Especially with KCP.
Brunson, 33rd.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 7:51 pm
by Mike G
KCP is a good example of why win-rates should be adjusted to the competition, as BPM does.
He's barely below zero in my 'proficiency' rating and plays lots of minutes. If he played those minutes at positive proficiency, he'd have >0 eWins.
In fact, I shouldn't even have this most-negative list.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 9:24 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote: ↑Thu Apr 25, 2024 7:51 pm
KCP is a good example of why win-rates should be adjusted to the competition, as BPM does.
He's barely below zero in my 'proficiency' rating and plays lots of minutes. If he played those minutes at positive proficiency, he'd have >0 eWins.
In fact, I shouldn't even have this most-negative list.
I have KCP at around replacement level so far via BPM. Far from the worst in the playoffs.
There's a handful of players with very poor BPM due to bad shooting. Gafford, Exum, AJ Green, Hield, Cole Anthony. None have played very many minutes--all less than 30.
Top in BPM is some guy called Jokić.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Thu Apr 25, 2024 11:04 pm
by Mike G
When a team is losing by more than about 16 ppg, they total negative Win Shares.
The Suns are currently one of those teams.
Code: Select all
. Phx Suns min e480 PER WS/48 BPM eWin WS
Kevin Durant 80 1.20 18.2 .051 2.1 .20 .09
Bradley Beal 80 .52 12.2 -.013 0.5 .09 -.02
Devin Booker 79 .65 12.0 -.012 -1.9 .11 -.02
Jusuf Nurkić 58 1.04 13.5 -.012 -.7 .13 -.01
Eric Gordon 44 .35 10.4 -.024 0.9 .03 -.02
Royce O'Neale 43 .31 9.2 .031 -1.6 .03 .03
Grayson Allen 43 -.05 4.6 -.042 -5.5 .00 -.04
Drew Eubanks 26 .15 6.1 -.131 -5.0 .01 -.07
. totals 453 .62 11.9 -.008 -0.8 .58 -.07
Zero-wins level in RS is around 6 for PER and -5 for BPM.
eWins and WinShares are exactly equal for Royce O'Neal. For all others, WS is lower.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 2:11 pm
by Mike G
While I realize It's Not a Thing, I am still surprised at the overall absence of Playoff Jamal Murray. He's had 3 sub-par games.
Code: Select all
G TS% ORb% TRb% Ast% Stl% TO% Usg% ORt DRt BPM
RS .586 2.7 7.2 31.2 1.5 10.5 27.9 119 114 4.1
1 .458 2.5 8.3 34.3 .0 .0 27.2 121 115 5.8
2 .402 .0 4.4 21.7 .0 7.4 31.3 85 107 -5.4
3 .465 2.7 6.6 30.8 .0 14.5 29.0 101 112 0.1
The best players, when their shot isn't dropping, tend to pick up their game in other areas.
I don't see that happening here. Top line is regular-season totals.
Here's how these 3 games rank among the 59 he played in the RS:
Code: Select all
G TS% ORb% TRb% Ast% Stl% TO% Usg% ORt DRt BPM
1 50 28 23 20 50 3 39 33 29 24
2 53 50 41 50 50 24 17 54 11 55
3 49 27 30 29 50 46 27 48 22 40
30 is a median rank; 50 is among the worst.
Lakers' series ORtg is 110
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:15 pm
by v-zero
Would probably see me ostracised from NBA twitter if I said it there, but outside of Jokic I really don't think Denver has any big stand out players. Instead what it has a is a core cast of above average but not amazing players whose games have become perfectly adapted to being around the big man. I have Murray and MPJ as the next most impactful players on that Nuggets team, but the drop off from Jokic is huge.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Fri Apr 26, 2024 10:10 pm
by DSMok1
v-zero wrote: ↑Fri Apr 26, 2024 4:15 pm
Would probably see me ostracised from NBA twitter if I said it there, but outside of Jokic I really don't think Denver has any big stand out players. Instead what it has a is a core cast of above average but not amazing players whose games have become perfectly adapted to being around the big man. I have Murray and MPJ as the next most impactful players on that Nuggets team, but the drop off from Jokic is huge.
Yes, their starting four appears to be just about perfectly matched to maximize synergy between the various players and particularly Jokic's unique skill set.
A true greater than the sum of the parts five man lineup.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:25 pm
by Mike G
Somewhere around here may be a post with a name like "The Jokic Effect" which details some 90% of his teammates have better shooting and are more productive while they are/were with Denver since 2018 or '19. Does not include Murray or Porter, since they miss the 'without Joker' column. But it's 90% likely they would not be as proficient elsewhere.
So it isn't necessarily "these guys" who are an unusually good fit. They are an upgrade over Morris, Harris, Barton et al.
Worst move now might be to bring in a co-superstar who isn't such a 'role player'.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 2:27 pm
by Mike G
If the Nuggets' worst shooter hadn't hit an amazing game winner, the series might be tied 2-2.
Here are game-by-game eWins thus far. Some are amazingly consistent, others in-.
Code: Select all
. Nuggets games: 1 2 3 4 T
Nikola Jokić C .26 .30 .23 .23 1.02
Michael Porter SF .11 .15 .10 .09 .45
Jamal Murray PG .14 .07 .10 .06 .37
Aaron Gordon PF .10 .06 .21 -.06 .31
Kentavious C-P SG .03 -.04 -.04 .06 .01
Christian Braun SG -.01 .04 .00 -.02 .01
Justin Holiday SG .00 .00 -.02 .01 -.01
Reggie Jackson PG -.01 -.02 .02 -.01 -.02
Peyton Watson SF -.01 .00 .00 -.02 -.03
. Den T .65 .55 .60 .34 2.14
Code: Select all
. Lakers games: 1 2 3 4 T
Anthony Davis C .19 .23 .20 .27 .89
LeBron James PF .11 .24 .16 .17 .68
Austin Reaves SG .04 .00 .12 .10 .26
D'Angelo Russell PG .00 .08 -.04 .10 .14
Taurean Prince PF .04 .01 .00 .00 .05
Spencer Dinwiddie PG -.01 -.01 .01 -.02 -.03
Rui Hachimura PF -.01 -.06 -.03 .04 -.06
Gabe Vincent PG -.02 -.02 -.01 -.02 -.07
. LAL T .35 .45 .40 .66 1.86
Rui was finally good in G4; Prince had a good G1 and no terrible ones.
Joker has had 40, 55, 38 and (gulp) 68% of team eWins. For the series it's 48%.
AD with 48% of Lakers' total eW. Davis + LeBron are 84% (from 67 in G4 to 104% in G2)
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 3:25 pm
by Crow
Denver bench is having awful shooting run. Peyton Watson for example is 5 of 16 overall and 2 for 9 from 3 so far.
If they fall short of tepeat title goal, this could be a main reason and Calvin Booth will catch some heat.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 4:22 pm
by Crow
Nuggets with biggest minute lineup by almost 60%. It has been good but not great.
Starting lineups that have sucked the most so far, from worst down, are: Magic, Pelicans, Knicks, Mavs... There are some really terrible performing second and third most used by team lineups as well.
3 teams have not used a lineup over 30 minutes total: Clippers, Mavs and Suns.
Celtics bench unit (Holiday, Pritchard, Hauser, Tatum, Horford, no Brown or Porzingis or White) is the by far best performing over 30 minutes. 3 times as strong as the full starting unit.
Knicks with fewest lineups used at a still pretty high 18.
Bucks, Mavs and Thunder highest, at around 40.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 7:13 pm
by Crow
9 of 10 players with most minutes per game have negative team +/- on the court. Desperation, over use, disappointment. Doncic is the only exception.
27 players scoring 20+pts / gm. Nuggets are only team with 3. 10 with 2. 4 with one. Pelicans with none.
Average of just under 4.5 per team (total) with 10+pt per game. 2 more per team over 5pts / gm. Rest of players (almost 5 more per team have played) may or may not contribute much overall, but their points are few.
Re: 2024 Playoffs overview
Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2024 10:38 pm
by Mike G
Team average age of players on the floor:
Code: Select all
age young age old
23.2 OKC 31.0 Mil
24.3 Orl 30.6 LAC
25.6 Ind 30.3 Phx
25.8 Mia 29.7 Phl
26.0 Cle 29.3 LAL
26.3 Dal 28.8 Bos
26.6 NYK
26.8 NOP
27.1 Min
27.2 Den
27.5 avg
NBA regular season avg age was 26.6
4 of the 5 oldest teams are losing or have lost in round 1; the Clipps are tied with a team 4 years younger.
So we may expect the avg age to get younger through round 2.
In only one series -- Bos/Mia -- is the older team likely to win. Because they are better.