APBRmetrics

Phoenix Suns used 576 lineups in regular season. 3 for more than equivalent of 1 minute per game and 573 dinks less than that. The 2 most used were very good but used less than 10 minutes per game combined.

The 3rd and 4th most used had Eubanks and were awful. Vogel had alternatives of Eubanks with just 2 of big 3 that worked initially but did not test adequately. Instead he used 198 Eubanks lineups. In playoffs a couple Eubanks lineups worked. One was limited by G Allen's absence, another was not. The couple used most were not good.

6 lineups were used 10+ minutes in playoffs, none were positive. 3 had 50+ minute regular season tests, 3 did not. O'Neal came in late but was used in 99 lineups instead of highly specific priority concentrated lineups.

11 most used rs lineups all had Allen and no alternative was tested 50+ minutes.

This was not a strategically sound case of lineup management to handle contingencies. It was the normal NBA chaos.

The most used pair data looked like things were pretty good in regular season. All of 15 most used in playoffs were negative and all but one disasters. All involved 6 players. Nothing did or apoarently could save them in playoffs.

They swept the Wolves in regular season. The starters were amazing. But only 1 of next 5 lineups mostvused was positive. A small warning sign. Lineup concentration against a key contender did not happen and probably wasn't even considered. 40ish lineups used in regular season and 40ish in playoffs. What if it was 6-15? Don't know; but that option existed and wasn't tried. Should have? I say yes.

The 4 biggest minute with / without combinations of the 5 best players were all at least +3.5pts / 100p in regular season but the next were near neutral to horrible. 2/3rds of rest were positive but picking the right combos was obviously important and done with mixed results. In playoffs, nothing beyond negligible minutes worked.

Was it just random horrible playoff results, effort or did the plan suck? I dunno. But it was a complete failure.

That was my 40 minute take. 40+ hours could get into more detail.

Based on regular season,

Durant should always play with Nurkic and with Beal and Booker, one or none doesn't matter.

Two of Beal, Booker and Nurkic all work without Durant but all 3 together w/o doesnt.

That gives 7 bases

All 4 together
3 without Beal
2 without Beal and Booker
Beal / Booker
Nurkic / Beal
3 without Booker
Nurkic Booker

I could fiddle with order and who to fill with. Maybe in the fall.

I'll end noting that about 45% of Vogel's lineup choices did not conform to this advice and nearly all that non-conforming got negative results. So did the conforming but at least conforming had conforming to regular season positive results as a rationale. Non-conformance did not and the undifferentiated mix showed an apparent lack of attention to average regular season results.

Head to head lineup data would be worth checking but not here and now and they would be small sample.

There are at least 10 teams who would not trade straight up for Suns team / situation, probably more because of luxury tax concerns.

Owner can indicate patience and talk high continuity now but 3 months from now what does it look like? 9 or 12 months?

Suns: 4 most used in regular season positives, 2 were OK in playoffs but not increased in usage, 1 was bad in not increased usage and 1 was barely tried.

I would have increased usage greatly for 4 initially and react to the results. Bases on what happen, it probably would been increase the top 2 performers even more.