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Celtics beat Mavs because Mavs offense wasn't good enough in the Finals. Not enough rim pressure or at least fouls called, not good enough shooting.

Who can / will do better next time?

Mavs offense was nothing special against Celtics in regular season. Meanwhile Celtics had their 6th best offensive split against Mavs in regular season. Mavs defense stepped up and / or Celtics offense fell back but Mavs offense did not step up.

The 3 best offensive performances against Celtics in regular season were Bucks, Timberwolves and Pacers. But the Pacers defense was a total failure, TWolves not good. Only the Bucks of these 3 did enough on defense. Bucks start the list of contenders against the defending champion Celtics.

Fwiw, not that much, Thunder and Lakers did fairly well on offense against Celtics in regular season. Lakers did alright on defense, Thunder tied for 5th worst defense against Celtics.

What did / does Thunder defense need against Celtics? Everything. Better 3pt defense and shot defense in general, better defensive rebounding, better disruption of passing, less fouls.

Sixers offense was not near good enough against Cs. Neither were Nuggets but they had the best defense against them. Put Nuggets on contender list, with one strength, one weakness.

Anybody else going on top contenders list? Not at the moment. Not yet.


Pacers are a possible. But the Coach both makes them one and not. I am not adding them at this moment but will further consider their case. Will they change in any meaningful way?

Early championship odds for every NBA team, per BetMGM:

Boston Celtics: +310
Denver Nuggets +750
Dallas Mavericks: +950
Oklahoma City Thunder: +950
Milwaukee Bucks: +1000
Minnesota Timberwolves: +1000
New York Knicks: +1600
Philadelphia 76ers: +1600
Los Angeles Clippers: +2000
Golden State Warriors: +2500
Los Angeles Lakers: +2500
Phoenix Suns: +2500
Miami Heat: +3500
Memphis Grizzlies: +4000
Cleveland Cavaliers: +5000
Indiana Pacers: +5000
Orlando Magic: +5000
New Orleans Pelicans: +5000
Sacramento Kings: +5000
Atlanta Hawks: +10000
Houston Rockets: +10000
San Antonio Spurs: +10000
Chicago Bulls: +15000
Toronto Raptors: +25000
Utah Jazz: +25000
Brooklyn Nets: +50000
Charlotte Hornets: +50000
Detroit Pistons: +50000
Washington Wizards: +50000
Portland Trail Blazers: +50000

Top 6 are pretty settled. I talked about all of those above. Maybe someone joins them (Pacers, Sixers, Lakers, possibly Knicks) but it would be somewhat of a surprise. Want to see the "24-25 Griz. Clippers, Cavs and Magic have to be watched but aren't there yet. What will they change?

That is 14 mentions. Could go another 5 with a non-zero chance.


Still to do, evaluate past Celtics playoffs. From 2023, the main issue was shot defense or opponent shooting "luck". In 2022 playoffs, the offense wasn't strong enough in any way. In 2021 playoffs the defense was garbage, worst of 16. Problems permanently fixed? What strengths are most likely to unravel? What weaknesses might get worse?

Can you play fast against them in playoffs? Destroy them on offensive board? Bait them into a super physical foul fest? Got to find some angle.

Play fast? Describes Pacers. Not Nuggets, Wolves, Magic.

Crush on offensive boards? Nuggets, Magic and Knicks, sorta. Not Mavs, Thunder, Lakers as currently constructed and run.

Bait into foul fest? Sixers, Lakers, Magic... TWolves, Bucks... Definitely not Nuggets or Cavs.

How to possibly prevent Celtics repeat? Somebody nabs D White or pushes his price higher than C's expected. Probably not something a contender can or will do directly. But could a friend do it, in exchange for something else?

What contender has useful friends and ways to pay off? I can think of at least one... but they won't hurt Boston.

Indirectly it appears Vegas has the Nuggets as the favorite to come out of the West.

At this moment, I think I'd say the Thunder are the favorite to win #1 seed. Not the same thing; but I'll step thru that and then say the playoffs will be decided by coaching and maturity. Thunder may go to Finals unless they prove lacking on one or both of these. I see Timberwolves as 2nd best prospect right now. A fair amount about to happen in off season, so will check back later.

Caruso is a huge upgrade for OKC. Health permitting I expect to see them back in the WCF next year.

I don't think Dallas are going away, the finals were tough but the Celtics wouldn't have lost to the other 28 teams either.

Mavs were #2 on 3pta rate to Celtics in regular season and 4th in playoffs.

Big picture, Mavs need better rebounding and defensive ball pressure.

Got to trade Hardaway... or just don't play him in playoffs. Easy coaching move supported by lineup analysis and more.

This playoffs and past title were both hot runs after pretty modest regular seasons. Should probably look for common characteristics in such runs.

Klay Thompson to Mavs.

Almost 10 straight years of decline on Darko projection, finally going into negative. 90th best rating on offensive estimate, bottom 7% on defense.

I'd guess he helps less than hoped / expected but we'll see.

Thunder, moved up a little by Vegas, but still in a fairly large, lightly differentiated 2nd tier.

Celtics have no peer among contenders for consistent effectiveness and return of 10 most used lineups, mostly with just 1 change from starting lineup.

They have their top 8 guys. Probably should change Kornet's most used lineup, to a 1 change from starters lineup instead of 2 changes. Could potentially replace as 9th guy overall with several guys.

Ideal roster set up.

Mazzulla increased use of 6 of 10 lineups in playoffs significantly, as you should. Also went with more 2 changes from starters lineups. Not sure I agree with that; but it didn't mess things up and it wasn't close.


Most contenders made notable roster changes and / or need notable rotation changes.

Best chance to beat Celtics probably belongs to a team who is elite on both team efg% and opponent fg%.

Mavs were closest to that in playoffs averages.

Sixers are pretty new but might achieve that.

Pacers have the offense but did they improve at all on defense in off-season?

Magic don't have the offense, though they think do or could. Cavs not have the offense either.

Suns are trying on defense but wait n see. Offense was nothing special in playoffs and probably won't be next time either.

Lakers actually looked decent on these 2 measures in playoffs but must have drawbacks.

Bucks without Giannis were meh. Next season? I am not expecting return to glory.

Thunder have their own thread. Should be strong but the pressure is now on. Anything less than #2 seed would be a disappointment. Lineup management will be critical.

Knicks had below average efg% in playoffs and were absolute last on opponent efg%. This not yet extended and not totally safe.

Nuggets flop in playoffs was unexpected and they do not start out as a top contender to me.

Heat probably do not belong in this group but I include to say that and ask what the heck are they thinking standing pat so far?


Early first win projections from Draft Kings are super staid. Who are the surprise risers and fallers? More to think about.

Major advantage in near-term window to those with superstars already locked up, the longer the better.

Preferably 2nd contract guys.

Probably better with 2 maxes instead of 3.


I think Giannis is the most expensive guy in 2025-26 at $68 mil, unless some new contract extension is going to exceed that. His deal groes by around $5 mil / yr. His next contract could be $85+ mil / yr. Should he get it from Bucks or whatever from somebody else?

Persistence of top players on contenders.

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1814452235969204550

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1814448461192015917

Nuggets flop in playoffs was unexpected and they do not start out as a top contender to me.

In the regular season they were about 3 wins better than their point differential, going 17-11 in games decided by 6 pts or less.
Their top 8 guys missed a total of 44 games (Murray with 23 of those), an avg of 4.5 DNP.
In playoffs, they were weary, gimpy and about at my preseason prediction for their season.

Heat probably do not belong in this group but I include to say that and ask what the heck are they thinking standing pat so far?

Well, if they are going to stand anywhere it will be Pat .