APBRmetrics

Championship criteria (from other thread):

C1: 2 +5s (or near)?
C2: 3 or more +3s (or near)?
C3: 4-5 over +2?
C4: 6-8 over +1?

Ideally a team would want to try to achieve all 4 criteria, but even near 3 is rare and 2 is good.

How are the rebuilding teams beginning to looklaundry room. on long-term talent prospects?

Raptors surely think Scottie Barnes is the or one of their future +5s. He is close by BPM (because of large role?) but just +1 on Darko. Is Quickley the second? I doubt it, but could be a +3. I am not seeing anybody else as likely +2s in a couple years. A couple or more +1s is a reasonable expectation but they are not flush with upside imo.

Hornets have LaMelo Ball, for now, sometimes. +3.3 on BPM but only +1.4 on Darko. I see him as more likely a future +3 than a +5. Will his 3rd contract be with Hornets? I dunno about will or should. I am not that optimistic about B Miller but haven't studied closely. I could see M Williams becoming a +2, maybe +3. Potential for some +1s but not there yet.

Many Wizards fans are quite optimistic. I am not from what I see so far. I consider Sarr as more role player than star. Let me know when he gets above 0 or eventually over +2. Coulibaly was a disappointment last season in my opinion and shows no obvious readiness for a greatly expanded role. I'd want Poole and Kuzma gone ASAP. Carrington might work out... if he develops greater rim pressure and efficiency and mostly changes his shot distribution.

Pistons should move up but not immediately projecting how far, how fast and to what ultimate end other than being fairly skeptical. Cunningham is nowhere close to a +3 yet. No one else is a future +2 candidate yet. Harris could be next season with potentially bigger usage (depending coaching and front office intentions and control) but unlikely in 3 years. A couple of possible +1s. Either they need consolidation trades to try for some +2s or higher or go big for lots of +1s and see what can be achieved that way.


I'll do the western rebuilds at another time.

My focus is on long-run talent projection rather than stepping stone win targets. The latter will follow the former eventually.

Jazz. Markkanen, +3.6 BPM, +1.9 Darko at 27. Is he the long-term #1? Tread water from prior season. Probably a better case to trade than not imo.

How does Lofton figure into next season rotation and long-term design, if he does? Zero minutes played with Markkanen and both separately were just around neutral. Not bad but I'd assume you'd want more and test the pair? If you think nit, say something.

Sexton, +1.9 on BPM but just +0.7 on Darko. Not much else showing signs of going to +1 or beyond yet imo.


Are these metrics generally different in degree of regression for one or more reason?

Spurs are Wemby and not that much else yet imo.

Blazers, I'd lean toward changing out about 2/3rd of team within 2 years unless they show improving numbers / impact pretty soon.

Bulls, Hawks and Jazz are the borderline teams with respect to how hard to lean into "development".

Youngest teams and 3 years later:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1820507954107597206

Quite difficult to do, hopefully there will be more cohesion between each member of the team.

Anything more to say on any of these cases or steps they "should" take?

Step or two forward or step or two back? Options. Intentions fulfilled or not.

For Raptors, Quickley - Barnes. - Barrett was +3 in modest time but the underlying bigger minute pairs were 1 neutral and 2 modest negatives. Not alarming but not that promising. Will want to see what happens this season. Seems to have 3pt issues with that unit and generally. Own and opponent.

A dangerous time. Prove the core, prove the coach or tank or get blown up.

Which way do Hawks go?

I doubt they want or are willing to blow it up but I don't see standings advancement right away.

Daniels Risacher Johnson Barlow (and Krejci and others)? What combinations will work? Go big on the 6-8 / 6-9 theme playing
3 or more at a time?

Settle for development and a 9th to 11th rank? Or trade Young and / or other vets?

Spurs fighting or not really fighting for 12th / 13th place? Anybody expect more?

Ownership know / content with the plan and timeline? Really?

9 guards, 7 modest sized forwards and 4 bigs right now. Who plays, who doesn't or barely? Play 15 or quickly or semi-quickly focus on 8-10?

What's the design?

20th or worse on 6 factors last season. What improves? How much? What are the immediate or long-range priorities?

Stay fast paced or slow it down?

Draft Spurs rotation
https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1852031585513623787

and related initial talk in link attached to this link.

Jazz appear to be tanking. So far away, I won't try to fix at this time.

Hawks could think different things. Will be interesting to see what they do.

Giannis rumors coming on. Wait n see if he says anything directly.

Heat imo should blow it up but probably won't til next summer or later.

By W-L, SRS and BRef projections, the Lakers are 11th, 12th and 13th. That's where they are. What are they going to do about it?

Barely above average offense, 28th defensive efficiency. 4 elite factors (if you stretch to 11), 3 lower middle, 1 awful (shot defense) has not gotten them much.

3pt game is one of the weakest in the league on fg% and especially frequency. Coaching emphasis not getting results.

If not for FTrate quality and / or bias they'd be further down.

Starters at 12 minutes per game and positive with 2 more positives over 3 minutes is relatively good. But 2 biggest minute pairs negative followed by 2 barely above neutral indicates some issues. AD - LeBron at -5. 60% of 20 most used pairs are negative and only 2 are really strong (Hachimura with James and with Russell). Top Reeves pairs are meh, while top Davis pairs are all over place, mainly meh to bad. Knecht is mainly bad, Vincent mainly horrible. Main Christie pairs all horrendous.

There is a core trio but not much working beyond it besides the starting 5 and a version of the bench with James, Hayes and Knecht. Tremendous amount of change needed in details.

67 lineups isn't beyond the norm but it is beyond wise.

Spurs up to 3 top third factors, 4 middle, just 1 bottom.