2025 MVP Tracker

[Mike G]

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html
Teams have played 7-9 games, so the season is right at 10% complete.
Here are numbers for the 10 ranked mvp "possibles"; plus another 5 who rank in the top 5 in PER, WS/48, or BPM.

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Prob%   player   tm   W%     Pts   Reb   Ast  SB-T    PER  WS/48  BPM
.611   Jokic    Den  .625   28.8  13.5  11.0  -1.2   31.0  .281  13.5
.086   Sabonis  Sac  .625   20.3  13.1   7.3  -1.7   24.8  .279   6.6
.083   Tatum    Bos  .778   30.2   7.0   4.8  - .3   27.1  .263   9.0
.076   Shai     OKC  .875   26.0   6.0   6.8  - .3   24.8  .242   7.7
.064   J Allen  Cle 1.000   15.1  11.9   1.8   1.5   23.6  .263   3.7

.027   Garland  Cle 1.000   19.8   1.9   6.8  -1.0   22.1  .214   3.9
.016   Booker   Phx  .875   24.4   4.0   6.1  - .7   19.8  .165   1.8
.013  JWilliams OKC  .875   19.6   6.8   5.3    .7   19.4  .188   4.3
.012   A Davis  LAL  .500   32.6  11.6   3.0    .9   30.7  .230   8.1
.011   Hield    GSW  .875   21.1   4.5   2.3    .6   25.7  .284   9.9

Prob%   player   tm   W%     Pts   Reb   Ast  SB-T    PER  WS/48  BPM
----   Giannis  Mil  .250   31.0  12.9   5.7  -1.9   30.2  .212   6.8
----   Towns    NYK  .429   23.1  13.0   2.3    .0   27.9  .251   4.9
----  T J-Davis GSW  .875    9.3   4.5   2.4    .1   21.5  .271   4.7
----   Gafford  Dal  .625   11.0   5.9   1.1    .9   24.5  .269   3.3
----   Eason    Hou  .625   11.0   4.5   1.4   2.3   23.8  .263   9.0

SB-T is per-game Stl+Blk-TO
Guys from .500 or lower teams don't get much respect.

[Mike G]

Jokic is now up to .722 likely to win MVP.
But there's this stupid minimum requirement of 65 games. Most players are not 72% likely to even get that many games.
So if Joker gets hurt or gets tired or whatever, and we jack up the other 9 guys to fill the void, it looks like this:

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.28   Shai G-Alexander OKC
.26   Jayson Tatum     BOS
.12   Domantas Sabonis SAC
.07   Darius Garland   CLE
.06   Devin Booker     PHO
.06   Jarrett Allen    CLE
.05   Evan Mobley      CLE
.04   Anthony Davis    LAL
.04   Chet Holmgren    OKC

These sum to .97

[Mike G]

For about a week, Jokic wasn't in the ten most likely to win MVP. Now back, italicized, as his 3 games off put him below the 80% of games eligibility threshold.
In addition to the b-r.com top ten, I added a few who are top 10 in at least one of these categories, and with 400+ minutes.

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prob.  mvp! mvp! mvp   tm   W%   e484   PER   WS/48   BPM
.755   Nikola Jokić   Den  .59   3.02   33.1   .317  14.5
.071   Jayson Tatum   Bos  .83   2.36   23.8   .214   6.7
.067   Shai G-A       OKC  .78   2.69   27.6   .259   9.6
.026   Giannis        Mil  .50   2.96   31.8   .242   9.4
.021   Anthony Davis  LAL  .61   2.57   29.7   .238   6.8

.019   Jarrett Allen  Cle  .90   1.90   23.6   .257   3.9
.013   Karl-A Towns   NYK  .56   2.56   28.2   .251   6.0
.013  Jalen Williams  OKC  .78   2.31   24.0   .229   8.3
.008  Alperen Sengun  Hou  .70   2.31   23.4   .220   7.4
.008   Evan Mobley    Cle  .90   1.76   21.7   .184   2.2

prob.  mvp! mvp! mvp   tm   W%   e484   PER   WS/48   BPM
....   Stephen Curry  GSW  .67   2.27   23.6   .206   8.8
....   Franz Wagner   Orl  .65   2.24   22.8   .193   6.4
....    Wembanyama    SAS  .53   2.35   24.0   .126   5.9
....   James Harden   LAC  .60   1.89   20.0   .145   5.4
....   Kyrie Irving   Dal  .58   1.73   22.0   .199   5.6
.... Domantas Sabonis Sac  .47   1.97   22.9   .210   5.2

A few days ago, the Cavs held 4 of the 10 spots.

[Crow]

Nuggets really need to pick up 1-2 players in some fashion, good or even near neutral guys. They have an open roster spot and 2-3 guys they could cut without much regret.

[Mike G]

It's a 2 man contest, maybe.
Current top 10 plus others who are top 10 in one or more of the other summary stats, and with >550 minutes.

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Prob    MVP     tm    W%   Min    PER   TS%   WS   WS/48  BPM  VORP
.554   Jokic    Den  .57   744   32.5  .651   4.6  .297  13.3   2.9
.225   Shai     OKC  .80   861   28.8  .624   5.2  .287  10.5   2.7
.068   Tatum    Bos  .80   839   23.2  .599   3.5  .199   6.4   1.8
.064   Giannis  Mil  .56   810   31.8  .633   4.2  .250   9.2   2.3
.020   Towns    NYK  .60   781   26.3  .645   3.8  .235   5.0   1.4

.019   Luka     Dal  .64   701   23.0  .565   2.5  .174   5.8   1.4
.016   Sabonis  Sac  .50   859   24.6  .707   4.3  .241   6.3   1.8
.014  JWilliams OKC  .80   802   22.2  .588   3.4  .202   6.2   1.7
.011   J Allen  Cle  .85   778   21.3  .712   3.8  .235   3.1   1.0
.009   Mobley   Cle  .85   736   22.0  .633   2.9  .190   3.0    .9

Prob    MVP     tm    W%   Min    PER   TS%   WS   WS/48  BPM  VORP
....   Sengun   Hou  .65   808   22.5  .533   3.3  .199   6.8   1.8
....  F Wagner  Orl  .63   829   22.8  .573   3.3  .191   6.0   1.7
....   A Davis  LAL  .52   849   27.3  .605   3.5  .197   5.4   1.6
....   Irving   Dal  .64   813   21.3  .625   3.2  .190   5.4   1.5
....   Curry    GSW  .58   583   22.3  .621   2.3  .187   7.6   1.4

....   Wemby    SAS  .52   645   24.5  .599   1.8  .132   6.3   1.4
....   Butler   Mia  .57   575   23.3  .644   2.9  .242   5.0   1.0
....   Hart     NYK  .60   924   18.0  .699   3.6  .189   3.5   1.3
....   Brunson  NYK  .60   857   22.5  .619   3.5  .197   3.0   1.1
....  Pritchard Bos  .80   709   19.7  .674   3.1  .210   4.6   1.2

Those in the lower half could displace some in the top10, should their teams start to do better.
Sabonis at #7 despite the worst team Win% in the bunch. He's top 10 in every column, top 5 in a few.

[Mike G]

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Prob    MVP     tm    W%   Min    PER   TS%   WS   WS/48  BPM  VORP
.406   Jokic    Den  .57   929   31.5  .655   5.6  .288  12.4   3.4
.356   Shai     OKC  .83  1008   29.8  .630   6.2  .297  11.2   3.4
.066   Tatum    Bos  .73   988   24.0  .609   4.4  .212   7.2   2.3
.057   Giannis  Mil  .55   840   31.8  .632   4.3  .246   9.3   2.4
.041   Towns    NYK  .67   951   26.2  .656   4.8  .245   5.4   1.8

.026 * Doncic   Dal  .63   785   24.8  .584   3.2  .196   7.0   1.8
.016   Mobley   Cle  .87   850   22.8  .642   3.7  .210   3.9   1.3
.011   J Allen  Cle  .87   878   20.7  .707   4.3  .233   3.0   1.1
.011   Garland  Cle  .87   869   21.0  .634   3.5  .195   3.6   1.2
.010   J Dub    OKC  .83   938   20.7  .570   3.4  .174   4.6   1.6

other   MVP     tm    W%   Min    PER   TS%   WS   WS/48  BPM  VORP
....   Davis    LAL  .57  1001   26.6  .596   4.0  .192   5.1   1.8
....   Wemby    SAS  .50   822   25.9  .610   2.6  .151   7.8   2.0
....   Butler   Mia  .54   627   24.6  .646   3.4  .264   6.1   1.2
....   Sabonis  Sac  .42  1007   24.3  .673   4.8  .228   5.9   2.0
....   Brunson  NYK  .67  1035   21.7  .609   4.1  .191   2.8   1.3

....   Hart     NYK  .67  1068   17.5  .683   4.1  .183   3.5   1.5
....   Curry    GSW  .52   748   21.5  .615   2.6  .165   6.4   1.6
....   Sengun   Hou  .70   927   22.5  .539   3.9  .204   6.4   1.9
....   Ball     Cha  .23   742   22.1  .557   1.7  .112   5.6   1.4

Leaders;
PER: Giannis 31.8 - 31.5 Jokic
WS: Shai 6.2 - 5.6 Jokic
WS/48: Shai .297 - .288 Jokic
VORP: Shai 3.38 - 3.37 Jokic
BPM: Jokic 12.4 - 11.2 Shai

[Mike G]

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date   Jokic   Shai  other
11.08   .611   .076   .313
11.29   .755   .067   .178
12.15   .554   .225   .221
12.27   .406   .356   .238
12.31   .461   .347   .192
1.02    .465   .344   .191
1.08    .442   .399   .159
1.09    .534   .291   .175
1.11    .608   .257   .135
1.16    .567   .309   .124
1.18    .604   .285   .111
1.24    .742   .184   .074  
2.11    .713   .231   .056 
3.10    .608   .317   .075
3.17    .577   .341   .082
3.22    .538   .388   .074

For one (1) day, Shai G-A had the lead, but I failed to record it. Something like 41-38. Then Denver won a game, putting them over some threshold (.560?)?
In one week -- Dec. 23-29 -- he had 3 of his season's top 4 GameScores and top 2 (3/5) game BPM.
They were also 3 of the top 4 games by anyone in that interval.

[Mike G]

Ignoring for now the importance of team Win%, and with all-star selections upcoming, these guys should all be on an allstar team. Even as Wemby is only the #5 center in the West.
PER, WS/48 and BPM (*min) are all converted to 'wins' and averaged (weighted 2-3-4) for xyzWins.

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xyzW   Player        min   Pos   Tm   PER   WS/48   BPM       pW    WS   bW
8.1   Nikola Jokić  1256    C   Den   32.4   .310  13.4      8.0   7.9   8.2
8.1   Shai G-A      1340   PG   OKC   30.2   .308  11.6      7.8   8.3   8.0
6.0   Karl-A Towns  1318    C   NYK   26.6   .248   5.6      6.5   6.6   5.2
5.8   Dom. Sabonis  1334    C   Sac   24.0   .227   6.2      5.7   6.1   5.5
5.6   Giannis A     1149   PF   Mil   29.9   .216   8.3      6.6   5.0   5.6

5.5   Jayson Tatum  1346   PF   Bos   23.1   .195   6.2      5.5   5.3   5.6
5.2   Josh Hart     1549   SG   NYK   18.0   .186   3.8      4.3   5.8   5.2
5.2  Anthony Davis  1257    C   LAL   26.8   .194   5.3      6.3   4.9   4.8
5.1  Jalen Brunson  1442   PG   NYK   22.5   .196   3.0      5.7   5.7   4.4
4.8  Jarrett Allen  1133    C   Cle   22.9   .259   4.3      4.6   5.9   4.0

xyzW   Player        min   Pos   Tm   PER   WS/48   BPM       pW    WS   bW
4.7  Alperen Şengün 1222    C   Hou   22.4   .184   5.5      4.8   4.5   4.8
4.6  Ty. Haliburton 1382   PG   Ind   19.9   .165   4.0      4.5   4.6   4.7
4.5   V Wembanyama  1131    C   SAS   24.8   .143   7.5      5.1   3.3   5.2
4.4   Evan Mobley   1129   PF   Cle   22.9   .213   4.4      4.5   4.8   4.0
4.4   Tyler Herro   1380   SG   Mia   19.9   .147   3.6      4.5   4.1   4.5

4.2  Jalen Williams 1262   SG   OKC   19.8   .167   4.0      4.1   4.2   4.3
4.2  Nikola Vučević 1286    C   Chi   21.3   .166   2.8      4.7   4.3   3.9
4.2  Darius Garland 1151   PG   Cle   21.5   .198   3.7      4.2   4.6   3.8
4.1   LeBron James  1223   SF   LAL   22.3   .129   5.0      4.7   3.2   4.6
4.1   Ivica Zubac   1242    C   LAC   20.8   .189   2.2      4.4   4.7   3.5
4.1  Damian Lillard 1152   PG   Mil   21.6   .184   3.8      4.3   4.3   3.8

It really is a dead heat for the lead. Joker leads by 23 ppm with this weighted avg, and Shai leads by the same when unweighted.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html

Note: I've been updating the previous post randomly or whenever it might be an inflection point. But neither guy is wavering, it's almost all just team W/L.

[Mike G]

For several weeks, Jokic had more than a 3:1 lead over Shai in the Prob% at b-r.com
But Denver is 8-8 since the allstar break and without Jokic the last 3 games. His perceived advantage is now 54-39%.

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mvp?     min   eWins  e484    PER     WS  WS/48   BPM  VORP
Shai    2298   13.7   2.91   31.2   15.3  .319   11.7   8.0
Jokic   2263   12.9   2.76   31.9   14.5  .307   13.2   8.7
Giannis 1933   12.1   3.03   29.8    9.0  .224    8.7   5.2

Denver has played 1 more game than OKC, and they are within 25 minutes for the season.
Giannis is included here for being a near-consensus #3 across the board.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html

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mvp?    TS%   TRb%   Ast%   Stl%  Blk%   TO%   Usg%   ORtg  DRtg
Shai   .646    7.9   30.8   2.5   3.0    9.0   34.6    130   107
Jokic  .659   19.4   44.3   2.3   1.7   12.9   29.4    133   111

In ORtg-DRtg, Shai leads 23-22 and on higher Usage.
Win%: OKC .829 - .620 Den

Jokic shooting .013 higher than Shai -- same as the difference in their opponents' TS%

And on that last point, and making this an official pitch for SGA, I think a player's TS% is most significant when compared to that of his opponents. So this table is about Scoring.
Comparing Shai this year to an ancient similar player, in 5 MVP seasons, for the other best team of all time.

Columns are: year, minutes per team game; player and opponent TS% and their ratio; player/opponent total points, and that fraction * ts%r; player and opponent (individual) pts/48 min, and their ratio; that ratio * ts% ratio.

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MJ    mpg    TS%  oTS%   ts%r   %pts  %*r   Pt/48  oPt48  ratio  rat*r
88   40.4   .603  .525   1.15   .344  .396   41.6   20.1   2.06   2.37
91   37.0   .605  .533   1.14   .312  .354   40.8   20.1   2.03   2.31
92   37.8   .579  .520   1.11   .295  .328   37.2   19.7   1.88   2.10
96   37.7   .582  .522   1.12   .327  .365   38.7   18.5   2.09   2.33
98   38.8   .533  .500   1.07   .321  .342   35.6   17.8   2.00   2.13
Shai                              
25   32.9   .646  .550   1.17   .295  .345   46.1   21.4   2.15   2.52

And per-100 possession rates. Here the first column is Age (for the same seasons).

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MJ    FGA    FTA   Reb   Ast   Stl   Blk    Pts   ORt  DRt  O-D
24   30.3   13.1   6.8   7.4   3.9   2.0   43.6   123  101   22
27   30.4   11.1   8.1   7.5   3.7   1.4   42.7   125  102   23
28   29.8    9.7   8.4   8.0   3.0   1.2   39.4   121  102   19
32   31.5   11.2   9.3   6.0   3.1    .7   42.5   124  100   24
34   32.1   12.2   8.1   4.8   2.4    .8   40.0   114  100   14
Shai                              
26   30.3   12.5   7.1   8.8   2.5   1.4   46.2   130  107   23

Jordan might have averaged 46/100 if he only played 2/3 of games rather than 4/5.
Shai (or anyone) would certainly wear down at 39 mpg * 14 years.

[Mike G]

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Prob%   mvp     tm    W%    min    PER    WS   WS/48    BPM  VORP
.562   Jokic   Den   .60   2423   32.2   15.6   .309   13.2   9.2
.355   Shai    OKC   .83   2531   30.6   16.4   .311   11.4   8.6
.027  Giannis  Mil   .55   2145   30.3   10.5   .235    9.1   6.0
.017   Tatum   Bos   .74   2544   21.8    9.1   .171    5.2   4.6
.008   Towns   NYK   .63   2375   23.3    9.5   .191    3.5   3.3
...

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
For perspective, Steve Nash won MVP with 4.4 VORP, 10.9 WS