APBRmetrics

I read somewhere that LeBron James has the worst on/off numbers of his career. By far. Astronomically bad. I ask how can this be?
I see the Lakers are 7-4 in games decided by 5 points or less; 13-5 in single digit decisions. And they've been blown out of several games.

LeBron's numbers in 3 tiers: Games LA won by more than 5; games of 5 or less difference; losses by 6 or more. https://www.basketball-reference.com/pl ... melog/2025
In those 8 major losses, he hasn't shot worse, only less often. His assists are way down, suggesting it's other Lakers not hitting their shots.

It’s been better as of late I think, there was a period pre Atlanta he genuinely struggled a ton on offense but his defense got much better recently

It is better in December than November.

9 pts worse on road than home. Horrible Mon. - Wed. Horrendous in losses. Only positive, from rest perspective, on the rare 3 days rest. Only positive against Atlantic division.

Last season also much worse on road, in losses. Also weak in December. And Monday.

Negative with 9 of 10 main rotation pairs. Hachimura the exception. Worse with the bench.

Starters with Christie over Russell are doing great in 75 minutes. Do that 20+ minutes per game unless it stops working.

Last game, just 6 minutes, -1. 4 games before that, amazing...and nothing before. Go back to it hard. What have they got better? Nothing better proven. 6 minutes of James with all bench worked in last game but appears brand new and could be random success. Need far better, more concentrated, disciplined testing but this is the best they have.

Russell gone. The original starting lineup is gone.

Starters with Christie? We'll see what role it plays along with new combinations.


Would be interesting to look at LeBron
+/- and everything by apparent position. Would take work.

LeBron still slightly negative team results on court, 16th best among all Lakers. Almost 19th best on / off. Only Knecht in rotation is worse.

+14pts / 100p with Doncic so far. Even better with DFS. Meh with Reaves and Hachimura. Bad with Knecht. If this season doesn't "work" satisfactorily in playoffs, they would next pieces to re-assess. To bench or elsewhere? Very good in limited run with Vanderbilt this season. Pretty good last season.

Starters with Finney Smith 3 times as strong as with Hayes but Hayes with the early 2-1 minutes preference. Use both a lot more. Use most other things way less. What else to use? Concentrate the testing progressively over the next month and decide.

Team performance down without him last night.

Will want to see how raw +/- on and on / off end the regular season and behave in playoffs.

Team +/- with him on the court is +0.1, Raw on / off is almost -7.

Main on /off negatives appear to be shot defense and opponent defensive rebounding.

6 of 10 rotation pairs are negative.

With Donic is down to +5.2.

The other bigger positives are also new guys- Hayes and DFS.

The old crew with the worse season results with him.

Since trade deadline, James' worst pairs are Vincent, Knecht and Vanderbilt.

LeBron on court tonight, -17, 70% worse than anybody else.

James - Donics down to +3.1 pts / 100p before tonight and probably slips a little more.

Doncic - James, -24pts / 100p last night in 28 minutes.

Season average down to +0.6. Results peaked in late Feb. after 5 games and the trend has been down since.

Any good commentary out there on the pair or Lakers in general? Links to best?

Donic and James with and without:

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nb ... 44,1629029

Doncic, no James is great. The other alternatives are meh. Doncic, no James improves notably on both sides of court.


Playoff results will be interesting. And off-season. And future.

Some options may or may not be "on table" but they are options.

Doncic Reeves James is -20pts / 100p since March 1st. Just 4 games at 21 minutes per game. A bit worse in last week.


Continue with it, change something or stop using it? Leave it up to him?


So far Redick is continuing with it and continuing to get horrible results. Horrible trios with Finney Smith as well. 85% of his trios in March are negative, most horrendous. Everything 9 minutes and over for month are negative.

Some things are messed up bad.


What worked before March?

Reeves James Hachimura and / or DFS Hayes.

With DFS lightly used and not working. With Hachimura impossible while out but barely used since back. I'd go to some versions
of the previously successful Hachimura combos. Get one or two to work. Do concentration since "chaos" is not working.


Fwiw, Bronny - LeBron is -67pts / 100p in 10 minutes.

Lakers lose tonight. James ties for team worst +/- at -10. Not an obvious big issue in boxscore. Lot of standing around in final minutes.

James tied for 2nd lowest +/- on team but only -1. Mildly positive with Doncic but quite negative with Reaves, Hachimura and Vincent.

L. James - L. Dončić - A. Reaves was -13pts / 100p in 23 (most) minutes.

Of 6 most used lineups, James in 5 and negative in 4. Must have made up for it in some of the dinks.

Using the Lakers big 3:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1906917004562616381

Pair results with LeBron for 6 main guys in rotations:

They are bad and getting worse.

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/1910061162173247954

LeBron with Luka and Luka without:

https://x.com/databallr/status/1912249608958554158