APBRmetrics

Things I see:

Most metrics rate Kornet pretty highly.

Most all from defense.

3.5 yr RAPM though, claims it is all from offense.

Kornet has highest ts% on team.

Leading OR%

Leading ft rate among those with more than trivial minutes.

2nd highest block rate.

Essentially lowest usage rate. Might not work other places? But with Celtics is was not an issue or even desirable with other usage / usage capability?

Highest ws/48, fwiw as a clue.

2nd highest O-BPM and D-BPM and BPM.


Things I think:

I'd like having him on team.

I'd play him.

I'd want to retain, but I wonder if it will be possible.

I'm glad to know all this instead of just a subset or just a hazy eyetest.

I am not sure how it all adds up in an instant. Will have to weigh it carefully.

Not sure why so many teams let him go. Will have to check injury history and transaction log. He was just alright early but alright was alright.

Especially wonder about the Cavs & Bucks giving him a cup of coffee in 2021-22.

What did Celtics see / use to pick him up? Are they surprised or did they expect good things?

What did Mazzulla see / think / need in 2022-23 that Udoka really didn't in 2021-22?

Why did the shooting go from meh at best to awesome? Well, he went from modest frequency at rim to over 75% there. His idea, theirs or happenstance? Highest paint touch rate on team.

Was it a mistake for him to try to be a 3pt shooter? What went wrong with that?

Is he really going to play in this playoffs? Not much before. Should he? Mostly positive individual playoff stats, and +/- except for 2024 playoffs. What went wrong then? Looks like turnovers were a big issue along with teammates missing a lot of shots. How will that time be remembered / used in upcoming playoff minute decisions along with this season?

What would you add to this profile?

Looks like defense got worse since all-star break. How much was individual vs. team?

Modestly better against east.

On factor level RAPM, his main positive is shot defense.

Size and age are probably pluses. Pretty good speed rating for a big.

From on /off data the big impacts are rebounding on both ends of court. Should look at deeper data including boxouts. Highest contested rebound rate. Pretty high boxout rate on offensive side, nothing special on defensive board.


Will someone offer him $10 mil / yr? $15m?

Darko has him projected as 87th most impactful. Top 30 on D and modestly above average on offense.

Apart from a crash in fall 2021, his Darko chart is pretty steadily up overall. Offense drifted down until he got to Celtics. Defensive had some short downturns but the trend was up strongly.

Who is similar or could be similar if given a real chance? Who else should take his redirection on usage and shot location?

Did Horford help his transformation? Porzingis?

Kornet used in 111 lineups. Most of the 10 most used very positive but only a bit over half overall. Could consolidate, probably do better.

Seen a better presentation on Luke Kornet and his impact?

Where? Link?

Your thoughts?

As someone who watches the Celtics with some regularity.... I feel the numbers overstate his true talent. The Celtics work hard to put him in position to succeed and to cover his deficiencies. He is a traditional center in that he has poor mobility on the perimeter and isn't a shooter at all. Not much post offense either. Because the Celtics have so much shooting elsewhere he's covered for on offense by the rest of the team... Some screens, a few rolls to the basket, some offensive rebounding, that's it. On defense the Celtics also cover for him ... Doing their best to protect his lack of perimeter mobility. He does provide some rim protection. He's similar to Porzingis but less mobile on defense.

I would estimate him as a -1.0 on offense and a +1.0 on defense overall, but he may end up unplayable in the playoffs due to the clear weaknesses. The Cavs relentlessly attacked him when he was on the court with their guards and he did not hold up well on defense.

Thanks for the reply.

Your own metric BPM rates him at +3.3 overall, +1.2 on offense, +2.1 on defense.

You are of course entitled to have your own opinion, subjective or based on other factors.

Every other mainstream metric covered by NBARAPM has him over +1, most near or over +2. and eRAPTOR is very close to BPM. Darko is closest to you but +1.2 higher.

Except I now see Drip has him at -0.3. (Hadn't checked that for awhile.)

Can't argue any measure is perfect / "right" but the super majority of metric is higher than your mark, fwiw, if anything.

Appropriate role in proper lineups is key for any player's "success"... and usually generally good metric ratings.

Mazzulla has used him 1000 minutes and that means something. And 11 starts. With that along with metrics almost across the board it means more to me, however you weight or pick between the two approaches.

I actually don't have an immediate precise player rating for him. Being aware of as much relevant detail as possible is the first step. Assigning an exact impact value to "believe" would really depend on being asked whether to re-sign and for how much (and how much tax or other action ro achieve) or whether to play in playoffs or not. I might assign a player value if I want but would if asked by a team. Short of that it is optional.

And even if a impact value is assigned / guessed, it is understood as an estimate. An estimate whose reality is influenced by how he is used. Including in lineups. Positive in 9 of 10 most used lineups and 10 of 10 most used pairs.

Yes, I'm aware of the all-in-one metrics' affinity for Kornet. My point is that those metrics show that he's performing pretty well in his context--but I contend that the context is specifically being crafted to minimize his clear deficiencies. Those deficiencies will likely become more clear if he has significant playing time in the playoffs

If KP and Horford are healthy, Kornet will not play much, as he's the clear 3rd post in the rotation. And not that far ahead of Queta in minutes, either

I understand your commentary.

The Celtics are well off at center with many options.

He might not play in playoffs or much. But it will be important to watch what Horford and Porzingis do. Porzingis has a very poor -8.7 raw on / off so far this season. Will the Kornet vs. Porzingis issue become prominent? How will it be answered? How should it be answered? Time to develop issue and response.

Ultimately lineup performance results trump individual player ratings on any basis.

Porzingis, 6 of 10 most used lineups negative (including the by far most used) even though 8 of 10 most used pairs are positive. Porzingis could be the better player but if team doesn't know how to use him as well as an alternative, it is something to consider. And would pull toward analyzing the available lineup data and pull toward a call for better / more disciplined / more concentration testing. And probably generally more weight on analytics includind AIO metrics, imo.

Porzingis - Kornet together 3× as good as any other Porzingis pair in main rotation. 100 minutes of testing is something but will it grow? Will it play a role in playoffs?

Porzingis - Kornet totally untested against Cavs. Horford - Porzingis was very good then, but I'd still test the former as an option or a possible necessity.

Checking the data, talking from it, a good thing.

Is Mazzulla's lack of testing P-K much and at all against Cavs intentional or happenstance? Neither makes much sense to me. Do you support or defer to his choices here or not really? Better to have analysis and possible departures in views than lack of visibility and discussion imo.

Kornet, 2nd on raw team +/- on court and on/off. 1st on both if you ignore low minute Peterson.

Kornet performance / metrics vs reader interest:

https://x.com/owenlhjphillips/status/19 ... 8744815923

Full article

https://thef5.substack.com/p/the-f5s-mo ... -player-of

Reader interest? Driven by eye test and archetype preferences.

Kornet, 6 for 6 from field last night, 2nd best on team raw +/- on the court.



Impact of Porzingis? Choosing new path different from his? Was it all by Kornet, mainly him, Mazzulla or some part of front office?

Kornet, 4 yrs / $41 million to the Spurs.

Kornet, +3.6 BPM in playoffs. Positive every time, this was near average for him. 16 minutes per game. 77% ts% also near his playoff career average.

Got the $10+ mil / yr deal I speculated about in early March.