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WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Thu Jun 05, 2025 10:39 pm
by Mike G
Scoring rate is relative to league-avg 81.3 pts/G, and rebounds relative to the current 52.4 avg.
Both are also scaled to opponent points and tm+opp rebounds.
Assists are relative to tm+opp points and also to home/away Ast/FG differential.
eWins are estimated wins added to the team and projected to the full 44-game schedule, assuming current minutes continue over the duration.
Code: Select all
e44 per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e404
9.8 A'ja Wilson LVa 6 34 .561 27.8 10.9 5.3 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.69
8.7 Napheesa Collier Min 7 35 .613 32.9 9.7 4.1 2.2 3.0 1.2 2.63
7.7 Breanna Stewart NYL 7 28 .635 31.3 5.5 6.2 1.8 2.0 1.7 2.51
7.4 Allisha Gray Atl 7 35 .649 26.5 5.3 5.4 .8 1.3 .6 1.93
6.8 Satou Sabally Phx 8 30 .503 27.7 9.7 3.1 2.4 3.2 .8 2.12
6.8 Sabrina Ionescu NYL 7 29 .581 28.6 5.2 7.3 1.4 2.7 .2 2.15
6.7 Aliyah Boston Ind 7 30 .677 23.9 9.6 4.7 .6 1.6 2.1 2.09
6.5 Jonquel Jones NYL 6 28 .591 26.4 14.2 4.9 .8 2.9 2.0 2.50
6.0 Natasha Cloud NYL 7 28 .603 18.5 5.2 11.1 2.2 2.3 .9 1.99
5.9 Dearica Hamby LAS 8 34 .549 19.9 8.9 4.2 1.8 2.6 .5 1.59
e44 per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e404
5.8 Rhyne Howard Atl 7 36 .477 18.2 5.6 5.8 2.1 2.2 .7 1.48
5.6 Nneka Ogwumike Sea 8 32 .543 21.2 10.3 2.7 1.3 2.3 .6 1.63
5.4 Brittney Sykes Was 7 34 .495 24.3 5.3 5.4 1.7 3.6 .6 1.67
5.3 Kelsey Plum LAS 8 37 .538 23.8 2.5 4.8 1.8 3.7 .1 1.33
5.3 Azura Stevens LAS 8 30 .588 18.3 11.9 1.5 1.6 .8 .9 1.64
5.3 Courtney Williams Min 8 29 .459 19.1 6.7 9.0 1.4 3.2 .2 1.69
5.1 Skylar Diggins Sea 8 32 .549 21.3 2.8 8.0 1.6 4.2 .7 1.47
4.9 Brionna Jones Atl 7 32 .524 17.1 10.7 3.6 1.3 2.3 .5 1.43
4.6 Jackie Young LVa 6 31 .562 24.1 3.8 3.9 1.4 3.0 .2 1.39
4.6 Kiki Iriafen Was 8 28 .568 21.0 13.0 1.3 .6 2.7 .2 1.49
e44 per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e404
4.5 Alanna Smith Min 7 25 .704 22.4 5.9 4.2 1.4 1.5 3.1 1.90
4.3 Alyssa Thomas Phx 5 33 .531 18.9 8.1 9.4 1.9 3.8 .9 1.89
4.3 Gabby Williams Sea 8 34 .589 18.1 3.9 4.3 2.2 3.1 .8 1.16
4.0 Caitlin Clark Ind 4 35 .528 21.6 6.2 10.4 1.4 5.3 1.1 1.85
4.0 Ariel Atkins Chi 6 28 .605 20.2 5.4 3.7 1.9 2.4 .4 1.33
4.0 Kelsey Mitchell Ind 7 32 .494 20.9 1.4 3.7 1.6 1.5 .2 1.14
3.8 Paige Bueckers Dal 6 34 .524 15.4 5.0 7.2 2.1 2.5 1.1 1.37
3.8 Veronica Burton GSV 6 27 .554 17.6 6.1 5.9 2.9 2.9 .4 1.48
3.7 Angel Reese Chi 6 29 .395 10.2 16.7 3.0 2.2 4.8 .4 1.16
3.6 Sonia Citron Was 8 31 .614 19.2 5.2 2.5 .7 2.2 .6 1.05
3.5 Arike Ogunbowale Dal 8 33 .461 16.5 3.4 4.2 1.9 2.1 .0 .97
Kinks are still being worked out in what is basically a conversion from NBA standards to WNBA.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2025 2:19 am
by Crow
Can't say I've been following.
Clark 24th and Bueckers 26th here.
Stewart with great overall scoring efficiency thanks in part to career high FT rate, almost double career average. Abysmal from 3. Rebounding rate barely half of career average. Career high assist rate. Adapting to teammates to some degree I guess.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2025 12:07 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Fri Jun 06, 2025 2:19 am
Clark 24th and Bueckers 26th here.
Both have missed games with injury. If they had played all games at current rates and minutes, they'd be #5 and 20 respectively.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Sat Jun 07, 2025 3:09 pm
by Crow
Yes.
For impact, playing time matters. For talent, per minute offers a fair comparison.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Fri Jul 04, 2025 12:48 am
by Crow
Clark had a 2nd injury.
Rated 20-40th on several other metrics. Could bolster the case of the low player vote on her. Currently below 30% from 3.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2025 2:55 am
by Mike G
Season 45.5% complete.
Code: Select all
e44 per36 rates tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
8.0 Napheesa Collier Min 18 33 .608 31.6 8.8 4.3 1.8 2.7 1.7 2.55
6.6 Aliyah Boston Ind 20 30 .614 22.6 10.2 4.8 1.0 1.9 1.4 2.01
6.6 Breanna Stewart NYL 19 33 .558 24.0 7.0 4.7 1.3 2.5 1.4 1.84
6.4 A'ja Wilson LVA 16 30 .543 26.0 10.5 4.5 2.1 3.0 3.0 2.41
5.9 Sabrina Ionescu NYL 18 32 .544 24.2 5.2 7.0 1.7 3.1 .5 1.82
5.8 Allisha Gray Atl 20 36 .596 21.3 5.6 4.6 .9 1.8 .5 1.49
5.8 Co. Williams Min 21 28 .502 20.6 6.6 9.3 2.2 3.3 .3 1.91
5.7 Alyssa Thomas Phx 15 31 .561 19.7 9.0 12.9 2.0 3.8 .5 2.28
5.7 Nneka Ogwumike Sea 21 31 .584 21.7 9.2 3.0 1.5 2.4 .8 1.67
5.6 Satou Sabally Phx 18 28 .515 25.5 10.0 3.8 1.9 3.1 .7 2.02
e44 11-20 tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
5.3 Skylar Diggins Sea 21 32 .554 22.0 2.6 7.0 1.3 2.8 .8 1.50
5.3 Azura Stevens LAS 20 29 .605 18.2 11.3 2.4 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.66
5.2 Dearica Hamby LAS 20 32 .565 18.4 9.0 4.1 2.0 3.3 .6 1.46
5.0 Angel Reese Chi 19 31 .500 14.3 14.9 4.2 1.7 4.3 .7 1.47
5.0 Rhyne Howard Atl 19 35 .488 17.3 5.3 5.4 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.37
4.9 Brionna Jones Atl 20 30 .560 18.3 9.9 3.3 1.4 1.9 .6 1.51
4.8 Gabby Williams Sea 21 34 .551 16.1 5.1 5.1 2.6 2.4 .6 1.29
4.7 Jackie Young LVA 20 30 .540 21.2 5.2 5.2 1.3 3.1 .5 1.43
4.6 Kelsey Mitchell Ind 20 31 .551 24.2 2.0 3.5 1.1 1.8 .3 1.35
4.3 Kayla Thornton GSV 19 30 .505 19.0 8.9 1.7 2.0 2.1 .2 1.38
e44 21-30 tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
4.3 Kelsey Plum LAS 19 36 .542 19.4 3.4 5.9 1.3 3.4 .2 1.16
4.2 Alanna Smith Min 20 27 .556 16.1 7.6 4.4 1.4 2.2 3.2 1.51
3.9 Paige Bueckers Dal 16 35 .535 18.2 4.3 5.7 1.8 2.3 .9 1.36
3.9 Kiki Iriafen Was 20 27 .514 17.2 11.8 2.1 1.1 2.6 .2 1.32
3.8 Natasha Cloud NYL 18 29 .540 13.8 4.6 8.9 1.6 2.5 .4 1.27
3.8 Brittney Sykes Was 17 32 .495 20.0 4.4 5.6 1.4 3.6 .3 1.25
3.7 Sonia Citron Was 20 33 .580 17.1 5.7 2.3 1.3 1.9 .3 1.02
3.7 Veronica Burton GSV 19 29 .509 14.4 5.3 7.2 1.7 2.4 .6 1.25
3.6 Chelsea Gray LVA 20 30 .572 16.3 5.1 5.8 1.6 4.1 .7 1.07
3.5 Natasha Howard Ind 20 24 .563 18.6 10.4 1.9 1.6 3.4 .7 1.33
e44 31-40 tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
3.4 Ariel Atkins Chi 19 30 .526 15.9 4.0 4.2 2.2 3.0 1.1 1.04
3.4 Shakira Austin Was 17 21 .506 21.1 11.1 2.9 1.8 3.8 1.6 1.71
3.3 Ezi Magbegor Sea 21 27 .514 10.9 8.6 3.4 .9 1.2 2.8 1.12
3.1 Erica Wheeler Sea 21 27 .535 15.7 4.2 5.2 1.5 2.3 .3 1.05
3.1 Kayla McBride Min 17 32 .581 19.2 2.6 4.4 1.3 1.9 .1 1.10
3.0 Caitlin Clark Ind 11 32 .489 19.6 5.8 10.7 1.7 6.2 .6 1.59
2.9 Tina Charles Con 20 28 .481 17.7 6.8 1.8 1.0 3.1 .5 .94
2.9 Arike Ogunbowale Dal 18 34 .486 16.4 2.9 4.2 1.6 2.5 .3 .89
2.8 Sami Whitcomb Phx 19 26 .569 16.3 4.9 3.9 1.3 2.0 .3 1.04
2.8 Kamilla Cardoso Chi 15 23 .581 19.6 10.1 2.8 .5 3.3 1.4 1.41
Still working out the bugs on conversion from NBA. The expansion Valkyries are about 14% under-valued relative to their SRS.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2025 10:20 pm
by Crow
Clark 36th here.
Now below 29% from 3 and with a 45% efg%. Worst yet in 2 games so far in July.
3.6% from 3 on the road, in 4 games.
Another weak shooting game yesterday but tons of assists and a win.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2025 10:11 pm
by Mike G
Categorical leaders, per 36 minutes, adjusted to team and opponent rates. Minimum 200 minutes.
Code: Select all
Reb per36 rate tm Blk per36 rate tm
14.9 Angel Reese Chi 3.2 Alanna Smith Min
14.7 Jonquel Jones NYL 3.0 A'ja Wilson LVA
11.9 Jessica Shepard Min 2.8 Ezi Magbegor Sea
11.8 Kiki Iriafen Was 2.2 Olivia Nelson-Ododa Con
11.3 Azura Stevens LAS 1.9 Brittney Griner Atl
11.1 Shakira Austin Was 1.8 Jonquel Jones NYL
10.7 Li Yueru Dal 1.7 Luisa Geiselsoder Dal
10.5 A'ja Wilson LVA 1.7 Napheesa Collier Min
10.5 Kiah Stokes LVA 1.7 Azura Stevens LAS
10.4 Natasha Howard Ind 1.7 NaLyssa Smith Dal
Ast per36 rate tm Stl per36 rate tm
12.9 Alyssa Thomas Phx 2.6 Gabby Williams Sea
10.7 Caitlin Clark Ind 2.5 Lexi Held Phx
9.3 Courtney Williams Min 2.5 Jordin Canada Atl
8.9 Natasha Cloud NYL 2.3 Saniya Rivers Con
8.0 Jordin Canada Atl 2.2 Ariel Atkins Chi
7.2 Veronica Burton GSV 2.2 Courtney Williams Min
7.0 Skylar Diggins Sea 2.1 A'ja Wilson LVA
7.0 Sabrina Ionescu NYL 2.0 Kayla Thornton GSV
6.5 Natisha Hiedeman Min 2.0 Kathryn Westbeld Phx
6.0 Aari McDonald Ind 2.0 Dearica Hamby LAS
. 2.0 Alyssa Thomas Phx
Sco per36 rate tm Eff% per36 rates tm
31.6 Napheesa Collier Min .667 Kalani Brown Phx
26.0 A'ja Wilson LVA .664 Leonie Fiebich NYL
25.5 Satou Sabally Phx .652 Kennedy Burke NYL
24.2 Kelsey Mitchell Ind .631 Jacy Sheldon Con
24.2 Sabrina Ionescu NYL .627 Te-Hina PaoPao Atl
24.0 Breanna Stewart NYL .614 Aliyah Boston Ind
22.6 Aliyah Boston Ind .608 Napheesa Collier Min
22.0 Skylar Diggins Sea .605 Azura Stevens LAS
21.7 Nneka Ogwumike Sea .599 Naz Hillmon Atl
21.5 Jonquel Jones NYL .596 Allisha Gray Atl
Sco per36 rate tm Eff% per36 rates tm
21.3 Allisha Gray Atl .593 Rebekah Gardner NYL
21.2 Jackie Young LVA .590 Jessica Shepard Min
21.1 Shakira Austin Was .590 Monique A-Makani Phx
20.6 Courtney Williams Min .584 Nneka Ogwumike Sea
20.0 Tiffany Hayes GSV .582 Sug Sutton Was
20.0 Brittney Sykes Was .581 Kamilla Cardoso Chi
19.7 Alyssa Thomas Phx .581 Kayla McBride Min
19.6 Kamilla Cardoso Chi .580 Sonia Citron Was
19.6 Caitlin Clark Ind .579 Julie Allemand LAS
19.4 Kelsey Plum LAS .577 Jonquel Jones NYL
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2025 12:55 pm
by Mike G
Season at 64%
Code: Select all
e44 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
8.2 Napheesa Collier Min 854 .627 33.7 8.5 4.4 2.0 2.5 1.8 2.55
6.9 A'ja Wilson LVA 750 .557 27.8 11.0 4.3 2.0 2.9 2.8 2.43
6.2 Sabrina Ionescu NYL 857 .547 25.8 5.5 6.9 1.6 3.4 .5 1.85
6.2 Aliyah Boston Ind 876 .590 21.4 10.5 4.7 1.2 2.2 1.2 1.86
5.9 Nneka Ogwumike Sea 892 .581 25.1 8.5 2.8 1.4 2.4 .7 1.76
5.9 Alyssa Thomas Phx 720 .553 20.4 9.8 11.1 1.8 4.0 .6 2.09
5.9 Allisha Gray Atl 1023 .591 22.7 5.9 4.5 1.2 2.0 .4 1.52
5.5 Dearica Hamby LAS 873 .575 20.5 9.6 3.6 1.9 3.2 .6 1.55
5.4 Courtney Williams Min 833 .501 19.7 6.5 9.5 1.9 2.8 .4 1.73
5.3 Azura Stevens LAS 787 .606 19.8 11.2 2.4 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.67
e44 11-20 tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
5.3 Breanna Stewart NYL 756 .552 23.4 7.3 4.8 1.5 2.5 1.6 1.80
5.0 Jackie Young LVA 854 .570 22.5 5.1 6.0 1.5 2.9 .4 1.56
4.9 Skylar Diggins Sea 897 .534 21.4 3.4 6.8 1.2 2.8 .9 1.44
4.9 Kelsey Mitchell Ind 893 .554 25.3 2.3 3.6 1.1 1.7 .2 1.44
4.8 Brionna Jones Atl 809 .575 19.8 10.0 3.5 1.4 2.2 .9 1.56
4.7 Kelsey Plum LAS 928 .566 21.1 3.5 5.8 1.4 3.4 .1 1.24
4.5 Gabby Williams Sea 950 .526 15.8 5.3 5.3 2.9 2.3 .5 1.26
4.3 Satou Sabally Phx 616 .498 24.2 9.1 3.5 1.9 2.9 .5 1.80
4.1 Natasha Howard Ind 709 .581 19.7 10.7 2.2 1.8 2.9 .8 1.53
4.0 Paige Bueckers Dal 792 .539 19.5 4.1 5.5 1.9 2.2 .7 1.34
e44 21-30 tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
4.0 Angel Reese Chi 728 .515 15.8 14.4 3.8 1.7 4.7 .8 1.41
4.0 Kiki Iriafen Was 743 .521 17.9 11.9 2.0 1.1 2.6 .1 1.37
3.9 Sonia Citron Was 917 .581 18.0 5.4 2.6 1.5 2.0 .5 1.09
3.7 Veronica Burton GSV 800 .531 14.9 5.6 6.9 1.4 2.6 .6 1.24
3.7 Alanna Smith Min 734 .553 15.9 7.6 4.6 1.6 2.1 2.9 1.34
3.7 Shakira Austin Was 571 .506 21.0 11.0 3.0 2.0 4.5 1.8 1.64
3.6 Kayla McBride Min 783 .600 21.6 2.9 4.5 1.4 1.9 .1 1.20
3.5 Brittney Sykes Was 774 .486 18.6 4.2 5.3 1.7 3.2 .4 1.17
3.5 Tina Charles Con 773 .494 19.2 7.4 2.1 1.1 2.9 .4 1.10
3.4 Ezi Magbegor Sea 793 .531 12.5 8.6 2.9 1.0 1.2 3.0 1.13
e44 31-40 tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
3.4 Natasha Cloud NYL 782 .532 13.4 4.4 7.9 1.6 2.3 .4 1.10
3.3 Rhyne Howard Atl 670 .488 17.9 5.4 5.2 1.7 2.0 1.0 1.32
3.2 Kayla Thornton GSV 662 .486 17.3 8.8 1.9 1.6 2.0 .3 1.27
3.0 Jonquel Jones NYL 409 .582 23.1 12.4 3.8 .7 2.9 1.6 1.90
3.0 Erica Wheeler Sea 795 .507 15.7 4.2 5.2 1.6 2.4 .4 1.01
3.0 Chelsea Gray LVA 866 .552 14.5 4.8 5.9 1.5 3.9 .8 .90
2.9 Kamilla Cardoso Chi 613 .547 17.9 11.6 2.1 .5 3.5 1.2 1.21
2.9 Jordin Canada Atl 603 .490 15.7 4.6 8.4 2.0 2.9 .3 1.27
2.7 Naz Hillmon Atl 656 .615 15.5 8.4 3.6 .6 1.7 .8 1.11
2.7 Arike Ogunbowale Dal 864 .489 16.2 2.6 4.4 1.5 2.3 .3 .83
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Tue Aug 05, 2025 7:18 pm
by Crow
Other things might be notable; but I'll note that Bueckers is tied for 20th here (with Reese) and Clark is not in top 40. Still out with injury.
Pretty clear 1, 2, then a fairly broad group with modest rating differences.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2025 12:31 am
by Mike G
With the season 91% completed:
Code: Select all
e44 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
8.1 A'ja Wilson LVA .573 30.8 11.7 3.8 1.8 2.7 2.6 2.65
6.9 Napheesa Collier Min .627 33.9 8.7 4.1 1.9 2.5 1.9 2.60
6.8 Alyssa Thomas Phx .566 20.7 10.0 11.4 1.9 3.9 .6 2.23
6.0 Aliyah Boston Ind .580 20.7 10.4 4.4 1.5 2.3 1.2 1.81
5.9 Allisha Gray Atl .578 23.2 5.8 4.2 1.2 1.9 .4 1.54
5.9 Nneka Ogwumike Sea .595 25.3 8.3 2.8 1.4 2.4 .5 1.75
5.8 Dearica Hamby LAS .597 22.3 9.6 3.5 1.9 3.2 .6 1.68
5.4 Jackie Young LVA .570 22.1 5.4 6.2 1.5 2.8 .5 1.61
5.3 Courtney Williams Min .505 19.9 6.3 9.1 1.6 2.9 .4 1.69
5.3 Sabrina Ionescu NYL .529 23.5 5.4 6.7 1.4 3.1 .5 1.69
e44 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
5.1 Veronica Burton GSV .567 18.0 5.5 8.7 1.4 2.6 .8 1.60
5.0 Brionna Jones Atl .573 20.8 10.1 3.5 1.5 2.1 1.1 1.69
5.0 Kelsey Mitchell Ind .558 25.5 2.2 3.9 1.0 2.0 .2 1.44
4.8 Azura Stevens LAS .610 18.4 10.4 2.6 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.53
4.7 Skylar Diggins Sea .531 20.1 2.9 7.1 1.4 2.5 1.0 1.41
4.7 Kelsey Plum LAS .573 21.2 3.4 5.7 1.3 3.3 .1 1.24
4.6 Satou Sabally Phx .515 24.2 8.2 3.7 1.8 3.0 .5 1.77
4.2 Kiki Iriafen Was .545 19.2 12.4 2.2 .9 2.9 .2 1.44
4.2 Breanna Stewart NYL .552 23.9 7.5 4.5 1.6 2.5 1.5 1.84
4.0 Sonia Citron Was .602 19.7 4.8 2.8 1.5 2.3 .4 1.15
e44 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
4.0 Paige Bueckers Dal .550 20.3 4.0 5.2 1.7 2.3 .5 1.37
3.9 Gabby Williams Sea .509 14.5 5.1 4.9 2.7 2.2 .6 1.13
3.9 Rhyne Howard Atl .499 19.1 4.8 5.4 1.6 1.7 .9 1.41
3.9 Angel Reese Chi .525 16.8 14.5 3.8 1.7 4.6 .8 1.50
3.9 Natasha Howard Ind .574 18.7 10.5 2.2 1.8 3.0 .9 1.44
3.8 Alanna Smith Min .565 15.8 7.3 4.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 1.34
3.8 Tina Charles Con .505 20.0 7.7 2.1 1.1 2.5 .6 1.23
3.7 Kayla McBride Min .603 21.7 2.7 4.5 1.4 1.9 .1 1.23
3.7 Jonquel Jones NYL .616 23.5 11.0 3.9 .6 3.0 1.5 1.82
3.6 Kamilla Cardoso Chi .552 18.4 11.4 2.9 .5 3.3 1.4 1.34
Alyssa Thomas averaging 16-9-9 in 32 mpg.
Lynx are 25-5 with Collier and 7-3 without her.
I don't find a list of rookies, but these were drafted this year (or randomly noticed):
Code: Select all
e44 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
4.2 Kiki Iriafen Was .545 19.2 12.4 2.2 .9 2.9 .2 1.44
4.0 Sonia Citron Was .602 19.7 4.8 2.8 1.5 2.3 .4 1.15
4.0 Paige Bueckers Dal .550 20.3 4.0 5.2 1.7 2.3 .5 1.37
2.2 Janelle Salaün GSV .515 16.7 6.7 2.0 .9 2.0 .1 .96
2.0 Dominique Malonga Sea .563 19.3 10.6 1.9 .8 2.6 1.5 1.40
2.0 Aneesah Morrow Con .460 12.7 12.5 .9 1.5 2.0 .9 1.08
1.9 Monique A Makani Phx .548 14.9 3.5 4.7 1.3 2.4 .1 .86
1.8 Saniya Rivers Con .491 10.8 3.8 3.4 2.1 2.0 1.3 .67
1.4 Te-Hina PaoPao Atl .566 14.2 3.4 5.4 .8 2.1 .4 .79
1.0 Aziaha James Dal .457 12.1 5.3 2.8 1.2 1.9 .4 .64
e44 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e402
1.0 JJ Quinerly Dal .523 13.3 3.9 4.5 1.8 3.3 .4 .71
.5 Makayla Timpson Ind .573 11.8 8.4 .1 1.9 1.2 1.0 .85
.5 Lucy Olsen Was .489 10.0 3.0 3.1 1.0 1.4 .3 .39
No others found with >.12 eWins or >.50 eW/402 min.
Mystics' rookies are their #1-2 in minutes, points, eWins and (by a lot) Win Shares
https://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Wed Sep 03, 2025 9:16 pm
by Crow
Wilson and Collier flip #1 and #2. Collier does a few things less or worse late but not scoring efficiency. Wilson improves shooting a bit but also shoots significantly more and rebounds more in August.
Iriafen and Citron were high draft picks with the desired +13 BPM college seasons to stamp them as legit / good picks to me.
But team offense and both faded to monthly worsts and they will miss playoffs. Teammates not good enough. 3rd lowest scoring. Their individual scoring went up in August but team scoring went down. Valiant effort or too selfish? Not apparent to me yet. 3 thru 6 on minutes were 8th, 9th, 12th and 14th on winshares / 40. I now have plenty questions about rookie coach... and whether they tanked out for better draft position. All 4 of those players shot horribly from 3 in August and were under 6 foot. 2 indicators that probably suggest changes.
Overall, first 4 picks of 2025 draft did well then 2 meh at best, 3 horrible (especially Van Lith) and 3 didn't play yet. The meh were over 6-0, the horrible were not. All the horrible shorts had way below league average ts%. Is short a general issue? I don't "know" / suspect but I'd want to know and act accordingly if it is. Did their shooting get better by August? Nope. Worse.
Just 5 decent to good after 1st round. 3 over 6 foot, 2 not. 2 for substantial minutes, 3 not. The best of these was the tallest. Only 1 had a good or better 3ball. Best 2 in this group? Yep, they were +13 or better on BPM in college. Draft or not on that basis more than any subjective traditional scouting, imo.
I don't know the WNBA deeply but have major questions about depth of talent, especially with the rapid planned expansion. Less than 1 drafted rookie per team was even meh, with meh set pretty low.
8 of 10 leading scorers per game are 6-0 or taller. The 2 who are not are over 30 and didn't get elite on ws/40 until mid 20s. 9 of 10 best on efg% are over 6 foot and the exception is 5-11 and 33 years old. Exactly the same with ts% leaders. 8 of top 10 by winshares were 6 footers.
The 3 meh rookies in 2025 draft class were all 6 footers, 2 over +13 BPM, one at +11.6. These criteria don't guarantee success but are pretty good minimum guides.
8 of the 10 weakest rookies were 6 footers but only 4 had +13 or better BPM college seasons. 7 of 10 missed on at least one of these 2 criteria.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2025 8:43 pm
by Crow
68 WNBA players rate at or above .100 winshares / 40. 32 over about .160. Those listed as Guards are represented in the top 32 at about half of a straight proportional share. Forwards and Centers (including F/Cs) are about equally and sognificantly over-represented in the very top. Guards are also mildly over-represented among those in the negative on ws/40.
Guards are moderately overrepresented in total players who have played in league this season. Forwards and centers moderately under-represented.
Players listed as guards must be getting a significant share of the time at “small forward”.
Last regular season, the title winning Liberty listed as guards played 50% of total minutes, almost 67% IF you add 2 G-Fs. The expected proportional guard amount would be 40%.
2024 champion Aces played guards for 50% of total time. 2023 Aces had the same 50% guards.
Dallas Wings went with about 67% guards this season. Chicago Sky 56% guards. Indiana Fever about 53%. Best team this season Lynx at 40% guards.
Position listings may not match reality. But Lynx have the lowest % guards. Wings highest checked. 2024 Liberty ambiguous, mid to high.
2024-25 regular season minutes to LISTED guards for Thunder: 71%.
2023-24 Celtics: 35%.
Just do your own thing, match like or go hard the other way? I wonder if going hard the other way is the right approach. More to research.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Thu Sep 04, 2025 11:04 pm
by Mike G
Crow wrote: ↑Wed Sep 03, 2025 9:16 pm
Wilson and Collier flip #1 and #2. Collier does a few things less or worse late but not scoring efficiency. Wilson improves shooting a bit but also shoots significantly more and rebounds more in August.
A'ja Wilson missed a few games, and Napheesa Collier was almost declared MVP.
Then Collier was out for an extended period, while Wilson got her team kicking ass.
Code: Select all
player min PER WS/40 WS eW82 e484
Napheesa Collier 971 31.2 .324 7.9 6.9 2.65
A'ja Wilson 1122 32.5 .281 7.9 8.1 2.60
Iriafen and Citron were high draft picks with the desired +13 BPM college seasons to stamp them as legit..
College players have BPM, yet WNBA do not??
...major questions about depth of talent, especially with the rapid planned expansion...
Along with expansion of both regular- and post-season, we may see more fatigue/injury and further dilution of talent.
Re: WNBA 2025 eWins etc.
Posted: Fri Sep 05, 2025 12:55 am
by Crow
"College players have BPM, yet WNBA do not??"
Yeah,, that seems odd. Is that a BRef decision or non-action?
Maybe Daniel has the story.
WNBA BPM has been produced elsewhere, by nbacouchside at least in past. Not immediately seeing any current.