APBRmetrics

using value estimate >10% of cap tool here

https://nbavisuals.com/cap_board


Wins Above Contract (for last season, rounded)

SGA +6
Jokic +2
Curry -6
Durant -8
Booker -7 (will become far worse)
Giannis A. slightly below neutral
Beal -10
Tatum +3
J Brown -6
KAT -3
LeBron -4
Doncic -2
Embid -10
George -10
Leonard -8
Mitchell 0
E Mobley +5 before new deal
Markkanen -8
Young -4
Edwards-1
J Murray -3
Haliburton slightly negative
Siakam -4
Sabonis -2
Morant -5
Barnes less than +2 on rookie deal
Cunningham +3 on rookie deal
Wagner +4 on rookie deal
Banchero +1 on rookie deal
LaMelo Ball -5
Ingram -8 before injury and extension
Herro below neutral
Adebayo -2
Fox -3
Wembanyama +3, hurt by missed games
J Green +1 on rookie deal
Hartenstein -2
Barrett -4
A Simons -3
D White near +4
Andrew Wiggins -3
Collins -4
D Green -1
Mikal Bridges -2
DeRozan 0
LaVine -8
KCP -3
C Johnson -3
C Thomas slightly above neutra
N Powell slightly below neutral
Kuzma -5
Harden +3
Vucevic slightly above neutral
A Davis -3
D Brooks -3
VanVleet -5 on previous contract
Eason +2
J Allen +3
Avdija slightly positive
Ayton -6
Holmgren neutral ob rookie contract
J Williams +7
Jalen Johnson less than +2 on rookie contract
DiVincenzo near +1
JVal +1
Keegan Murray +1 on rookie contract
Derick Jones slightly positive
Sengun over +5
Amen Thompson near +4
C Wallace +2
Whitmore slightly positive
Jaylin Williams near +2
Aaron Wiggins +1
D Daniels +4 on rookie contract (how much will he gey paid?)
Josh Giddey pushing +3
M Williams +2 on rookie contract
Livrly not quite +1 in abbrevated season
Kessler +2 on rookie cobtrsct

Tons of stories about players and GMs in this.

Such as... how did Cavs blow it?

You want to make your title push with a 1st max guy or even more before, if possible.

If you can get a high value in late lottery or near lottery that would be great.

Smaller negatives may still be desirable.

Not many in league are notably "underpaid" / strong values over $15 million. Most of values are under that. Should look at every such case that are obtainable, enduring or not completely degrading in near term. Change design in doing so? A big question.

Digging for more 0 to +2s at lower salary would be a next main task.

16 are -5 or worse on WAC. May be 30+ overall, apparently all over $15 million / yr and with the associated / necessary playing time to produce such impact.

Jokic will go negative on this calculation on next extension. How soon to be determined.

Annual raises significantly affect the prodiction of negative Wins Above Contract, probably especially on 3rd contracts and 2nd maxes.

Allowed raises may be too high relative to the aging curve. Whether that can be changed in a future CBA is a question. Reduce or ban raises over some age (32-33? 29-30?) by rule or just more disciplined practice?

Suggs declines to under $27 million in 2029-30, Jalen Johnson stays at $30 mil til then, Sengun only goes to $39 mil...

Those are likely contracts their teams will keep but folks will ask...

Curry is the first to flirt with $60 million this coming season and pushes $63 mil the next. And... will get how far in the playoffs?


$30 mil / yr role players will eventually be passed by $40 mil role players...

Team Wins Above Average = Wins Above Contract= Wins Above Contracts up to Average Team Salary + Wins From Contracts Above Average Total Salary.

Change in Team Wins from year to year=
change in Team Wins Above Contract from player and / or coach / management up to Average Team Salary
+ change in Wins from Contracts Above Average Total Salary.

Wins Above Contract is too simple these days. It should ideally be Wins Above Contract and any negative consequences. Primarily taxes and aprons. But final assessment to keep / use or not could stretch to issues like blocking development or hurting tanking.

Curry -6 on WAC, Butler -5ish. -11 combined. Total edge matters directly. Inefficiency in places can be made up for in other areas or with more spending. But this makes for hard work. For a season. Wait n see what comes from it and comes after it.

Bucks found probable "value" on 3rd+ contacts with players with little bargaining power.

Who else?

Important strategy, especially for them after spurging on Turner.

How commonly are 2nd contracts bad values at the different levels? I see plenty of contracts good or reasonably close to neutral value by WAC for those under 10% of salary cap but over 10% of cap is a far diferent story. Roughly looks like 10 to 1 negative values to positive ones and probably 2-3 to 1 worse than -3 compared to lesser negatives.

The basis of WAC deserves further clarification and consideration. Asked but no response yet.