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2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Sep 09, 2025 5:04 pm
by Crow
Enter to be "officially in", if interested, fwiw.
Don't enter, you might still be tracked or can score yourself.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2025 2:30 am
by DQuinn1575
I plan to enter as well, so I will track it here if there is no "Official" contest
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2025 2:41 pm
by Mike G
A couple of entries by Kevin Pelton: his own plus
ESPN BET over/under total.
Code: Select all
west KPel EBET east KPel EBET
OKC 59.2 62.5 Cle 50.1 56.5
GSW 56.1 46.5 Orl 49.9 51.5
Den 52.2 53.5 NYK 47.2 53.5
LAC 49.7 47.5 Ind 45.9 38.5
Hou 46.9 53.5 Bos 45.6 40.5
LAL 45.8 48.5 Mil 44.5 42.5
Mem 44.6 40.5 Atl 44.3 46.5
Min 43.7 49.5 Det 42.6 45.5
Dal 43.6 40.5 Tor 40.7 38.5
Sac 43.5 34.5 Mia 40.3 38.5
SAS 40.1 44.5 Phl 38.4 42.5
Por 35.8 33.5 Chi 38.0 31.5
Phx 34.7 31.5 Cha 28.5 26.5
NOP 32.6 30.5 Brk 17.6 20.5
Uta 20.2 18.5 Was 14.2 20.5
avg 43.25 42.37 avg 39.19 39.57
Pelton league avg is 41.2, the other near 41.0
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/465 ... l-30-teams
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Oct 12, 2025 5:57 pm
by Crow
Average difference of almost 3.5.
50% more difference in west.
Pelton closer to 41 only about half the time.
But only higher than EBET twice when EBET was over 45.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2025 1:00 am
by Mike G
Every year I neglect or forget to put an age correction in my predictions. We all know that younger players tend to be better this year than they were last year, while older guys are likely to have declined. Right?
I gathered up 10 years of my own non-age-curved team win predictions and how they varied from actual Wins -- correcting for the Covid-shortened seasons (2020 and 2021) and attempted to find a formula that incorporates avg team age and reduces my errors.
After many attempts, it's clear there is a positive correlation with age: Older teams have tended to out-perform expectations, while younger teams have underachieved. Sorting by age and dividing 360 team-seasons into thirds (120 each) the averages are:
Code: Select all
age pred actW err
28.3 46.4 47.4 7.5
26.1 41.4 40.7 8.2
24.4 35.1 34.7 9.0
So I could not have expected lower errors by boosting younger teams' expectations.
Older players should not be getting better -- not even possible? -- but they may be improving their teams beyond what their stats would indicate.
Any other theories?
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2025 1:34 am
by DQuinn1575
Look at your ages - 24, 26, and 28. Most aging curves will have players improving during this whole time period. The teams full of 24 year olds have 3 year guys who may not last longer in the league. The 28 year old teams are (usually) ones with proven players, they aren't going to give too many minutes to older guys if they are a bad team. There are so many guys who never make it to age 28 (calling that peak age) that the league is full of guys who are young, and never hit their NBA peak.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 14, 2025 4:27 pm
by Crow
Brief survey of impact by age band.
viewtopic.php?t=10241#p44121
Young guys hurt on average, thru age 28. With exceptions of course.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2025 1:31 am
by Mike G
Distilling last season's
Improved spreadsheet (from 2024 to '25) by players' age, there are interesting trends.
To smooth out the results, I've averaged 3 years centered on a single age cohort: The 20-21 line is an avg of 19-20, 20-21, and 21-22. Showing total minutes (in thousands), eWins per 484 min. (1.00 is avg), and total eWins.
Code: Select all
. ages 1000 x min. eWin/484 eWins
20 21 24.3 25.5 .85 .90 42.6 47.4
21 22 35.0 37.6 .95 1.04 68.5 81.1
22 23 43.7 46.6 .97 1.03 87.9 99.5
23 24 48.3 52.0 .98 1.04 97.4 111.7
24 25 54.1 53.6 1.01 1.05 112.5 116.1
25 26 49.3 47.4 1.08 1.10 109.6 108.1
26 27 48.8 45.5 1.11 1.10 112.5 103.6
27 28 41.8 40.1 1.11 1.09 96.2 90.3
28 29 40.7 36.9 1.15 1.10 96.5 83.7
29 30 32.9 28.9 1.09 1.08 74.5 64.4
30 31 30.3 25.2 1.07 .98 66.8 51.1
31 32 22.5 17.9 .99 .90 46.0 33.3
32 33 20.3 15.5 1.06 .99 44.3 31.5
33 34 13.1 10.1 1.13 1.14 30.6 23.8
34 35 13.7 11.6 1.15 1.19 32.5 28.5
35 36 8.5 7.3 1.17 1.22 20.4 18.5
36 37 7.6 5.8 .98 1.01 15.3 12.2
Biggest improvement is from age 21 to 22 -- e484 columns -- starting to decline from 26 to 27.
Minutes peak even earlier at 24-25.
Beyond age 33, minutes drop sharply, but remaining proficiency perks back up. Still, total eWins drop steadily from age 25.
Maybe old guys just know how to win the close ones.
note: Only players who played both of the last 2 seasons are in this sample; no rookies of 2025, nor '24 players who did not continue to '25.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Oct 16, 2025 2:25 pm
by DQuinn1575
Kevin Pelton's minutes projection for the season. I did use them last year, saved time if nothing else.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... id=0#gid=0
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2025 1:35 am
by Mike G
Thanks man.
I came here to ask if anyone could get this, and end up doing the whole shebang.
Four entries again:
Code: Select all
tm perW WS bpmW eWin
Atl 43.8 42.2 43.5 43.1
Bos 38.7 47.7 41.8 37.4
Brk 27.1 33.4 28.1 26.8
Cha 31.0 27.5 31.0 32.0
Chi 33.6 38.2 34.8 32.0
Cle 49.7 54.0 52.7 49.6
Dal 53.7 43.6 45.0 50.8
Den 54.8 50.2 50.8 47.0
Det 42.1 43.8 42.8 44.7
GSW 42.1 47.5 48.8 46.1
Hou 45.8 47.4 50.3 46.0
Ind 40.8 42.7 36.5 35.9
LAC 48.8 47.2 48.8 49.7
LAL 47.3 44.2 46.0 46.8
Mem 40.7 46.7 42.7 42.0
Mia 40.0 40.8 39.5 41.3
Mil 38.5 37.9 38.4 42.0
Min 41.3 48.8 47.2 46.0
NOP 34.5 28.5 33.1 32.1
NYK 50.5 47.8 46.7 46.8
OKC 57.7 64.5 64.8 60.3
Orl 48.3 42.9 47.7 55.2
Phl 42.5 31.7 35.3 38.2
Phx 32.2 37.0 34.6 33.5
Por 29.9 37.7 37.5 31.5
Sac 42.4 39.7 39.4 40.3
SAS 49.7 38.5 41.6 45.0
Tor 38.3 32.2 37.9 40.8
Uta 23.0 24.5 23.8 25.4
Was 21.1 21.3 18.8 21.6
Subject to change.
All 4 were too high by 30 to 55 wins, so were scaled down to 1230.
Then they are regressed toward or away from 41 to have 7.0 avg deviation; it just feels about right.
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2025 1:06 pm
by dtkavana
I will get the CraftedNBA Projections in here later today. We should attempt to grab BBall Index and DARKO as I remember they wanted to be involved last year but were too late - maybe i'll message them on X. I assume we will use those Pelton ESPN Bet as a stand in for "Vegas"?
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2025 12:36 am
by Mike G
If no objections, I submit a "subjective" prediction slate. It's just eWins rounded up/down plus a few beyond just rounding. Biggest difference is Denver, where their projected 5 thru 8 players -- Cam Johnson, Hardaway, Bruce Brown, and Valanciunas -- are all incoming and likely to out-perform last season via the
Jokic Effect.
Code: Select all
west W east W
OKC 62 Orl 52
Den 50 Cle 52
LAC 50 NYK 48
Dal 48 Det 45
Hou 47 Mil 43
Min 47 Atl 42
SAS 46 Mia 40
GSW 46 Tor 40
LAL 45 Bos 39
Mem 42 Ind 38
Sac 41 Phl 37
Phx 33 Chi 34
Por 33 Cha 31
NOP 31 Brk 25
Uta 23 Was 20
Note: If you use these team abbreviations, not case-sensitive, they will be in the same alphabetical order as their full names. It's very nice to be able to order them consistently this way.
edited 10-21-25 8:15 PM
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2025 2:43 am
by DQuinn1575
okay, I use the B-Ref abbreviations, but I spelled out the whole team name and hope I remove the confusion we had last year on CHI/Charlotte.
I followed my math, making BOS, MEM, IND higher than the consensus, and low on DET, ORL, NYK.
Oklahoma City Thunder OKC 69
Houston Rockets HOU 58
Cleveland Cavaliers CLE 55
Denver Nuggets DEN 52
Golden State Warriors GSW 51
Boston Celtics BOS 50
Dallas Mavericks DAL 50
Los Angeles Clippers LAC 50
Minnesota Timberwolves MIN 49
Memphis Grizzlies MEM 48
Indiana Pacers IND 47
Atlanta Hawks ATL 46
New York Knicks NYK 43
Orlando Magic ORL 42
Los Angeles Lakers LAL 41
Milwaukee Bucks MIL 40
San Antonio Spurs SAS 40
Phoenix Suns PHO 39
Portland Trail Blazers POR 39
Miami Heat MIA 37
Chicago Bulls CHI 35
Detroit Pistons DET 35
Sacramento Kings SAC 35
New Orleans Pelicans NOP 33
Philadelphia 76ers PHI 33
Toronto Raptors TOR 28
Brooklyn Nets BRK 26
Charlotte Hornets CHO 23
Utah Jazz UTA 21
Washington Wizards WAS 17
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2025 2:51 am
by mediocre
OKC: 63.7
CLE: 57.7
DEN: 53.9
MIN: 51.8
HOU: 51.1
GSW: 50.3
ORL: 49.9
NYK: 49.4
PHI: 47.4
LAC: 46.3
MEM: 46.1
DET: 45.6
ATL: 45.4
POR: 43.4
DAL: 42.7
LAL: 42.5
BOS: 41.5
MIL: 41.5
IND: 39.9
SAS: 39.6
CHI: 36.1
SAC: 33.7
MIA: 33.2
NOP: 32.5
TOR: 31.5
PHX: 27.3
CHA: 26.1
UTA: 23.7
BRK: 18.5
WAS: 17.7
Re: 2025-26 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2025 7:46 am
by Mike G
Some players who got serious run last year and don't seem to appear on any roster yet this year?
With last year's minutes and most recent team:
Code: Select all
min player ? tm
2283 Malik Beasley Det
1925 Keon Johnson Brk
1349 Trey Lyles Sac
1250 Ricky Council Phl
1173 Cody Martin Phx
1120 Ben Simmons LAC
993 Brandon Boston NOP
912 KJ Martin Uta
863 Alec Burks Mia
837 Shake Milton LAL
785 Vasilije Micić Phx
724 Talen Horton-Tucker Chi