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2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2025 1:13 am
by Mike G
Projected to the full season, now at 5.5% complete, rookie eWins are projecting to a total of 57.
With no change in their current minutes per game :
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.1 VJ Edgecombe Phl 161 .578 17.3 5.2 4.2 1.7 1.8 .5 1.19
6.5 Dylan Harper SAS 104 .557 20.3 7.4 5.9 1.2 2.6 .0 1.48
6.4 Cedric Coward Mem 122 .800 23.6 5.4 2.3 1.6 1.1 .8 1.54
4.6 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha 106 .905 14.5 10.2 .8 1.4 2.1 1.4 1.03
3.8 Kon Knueppel Cha 118 .696 18.1 5.3 1.9 .6 2.5 .0 .76
3.7 Cooper Flagg Dal 161 .496 12.8 6.8 2.7 1.0 2.3 .7 .68
2.9 Sion James Cha 79 .868 15.5 3.9 2.0 1.3 .4 .9 .86
2.5 Tre Johnson Was 107 .578 15.1 4.0 1.9 .3 1.6 1.0 .56
2.4 Jeremiah Fears NOP 104 .546 15.1 2.4 3.1 1.6 3.1 .0 .55
2.0 Derik Queen NOP 85 .500 10.2 8.7 .3 1.1 2.0 1.2 .56
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 Will Richard GSW 71 .711 13.2 5.0 2.9 2.4 1.9 .0 .79
1.8 Walter Clayton Uta 78 .536 10.8 6.3 4.4 1.2 3.0 .0 .55
1.2 Collin M-Boyles Tor 62 .593 14.3 3.6 1.2 1.9 1.7 .6 .58
1.1 Egor Demin Brk 82 .625 9.9 7.2 3.1 .9 3.3 .0 .38
0.9 Javon Small Mem 89 .516 9.4 2.7 6.4 .0 2.6 .4 .28
0.3 Hugo González Bos 45 .375 3.3 4.0 .7 3.0 .0 .8 .17
-.1 Ace Bailey Uta 63 .320 4.8 5.1 2.7 .0 1.1 .5 -.04
-.3 Ben Saraf Brk 91 .308 3.3 5.0 4.9 .9 3.3 .0 -.09
-.5 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 41 .429 3.9 4.9 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.34
-.6 Tyrese Proctor Cle 47 .313 4.0 3.0 1.8 1.3 2.8 .0 -.38
These are all the rookies with >40 minutes total.
30 eWins among West rookies to 27 in the East.
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2025 2:00 pm
by Crow
Kalkbrenner and S James are my biggest good draft calls so far.
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Fri Oct 31, 2025 5:12 pm
by Mike G
I see we both put Charlotte down with 31 wins in the contest. I used Pelton minutes and applied them to 4 different stats.
Hornets are using 4 rookies, all drafted in the top 34. Last night 3 of them started, and they got shellacked.
Here I'm comparing their projected Wins with their predicted wins contributed:
Code: Select all
. Hornets predicted based on draft number current, projected to 82 G
. rookies dr# mpg perW WS bpmW eW mpg perW WS bpmW eW*
K Knueppel 4 26 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.7 29 2.5 1.0 1.1 3.7
L McNeeley 29 7 .8 .8 .7 .7 6 1.2 2.0 1.4 .3
Sion James 33 3 .3 .3 .3 .3 21 4.0 5.3 5.0 3.1
Kalkbrenner 34 17 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 27 6.6 6.5 4.5 4.8
. totals 53 7.7 8.1 7.5 7.2 84 14.3 14.8 12.0 12.0
. rookies min PER WS/48 BPM e484 min PER WS/48 BPM e484
K Knueppel 2128 16.1 .123 0.6 1.08 2378 10.5 .021 -4.1 .76
L McNeeley 608 11.5 .065 -2.2 .56 525 15.8 .190 1.6 .31
Sion James 228 11.3 .063 -2.3 .54 1755 15.9 .149 2.0 .86
Kalkbrenner 1368 11.3 .063 -2.3 .53 2247 18.8 .143 -0.2 1.03
. totals 4332 13.7 .093 -0.9 .81 6904 15.0 .106 -0.8 .84
Minute totals on the left are KPel; on the right, current*82/5
* - eWins rate does not include last night's game: McNeely was great, Kalk good, James meh, Kneup terrible.
Kneuppel largely cancels overachievement by the other 3.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/bo ... 00CHO.html
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Sat Nov 08, 2025 7:23 pm
by Mike G
At .107 of the season, rookies project to total 53 eWins.
With at least 90 minutes:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.1 Cedric Coward Mem 265 .688 18.9 7.3 3.0 1.4 1.4 .4 1.36
5.9 VJ Edgecombe Phl 309 .544 14.3 5.6 3.8 1.4 1.8 .2 .90
5.0 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha 246 .806 13.0 9.6 .6 1.6 2.4 3.5 1.09
4.4 Cooper Flagg Dal 291 .500 13.6 7.3 2.5 1.3 2.4 .8 .80
4.3 Kon Knueppel Cha 284 .597 16.4 7.1 2.2 .7 2.5 .1 .81
3.8 Dylan Harper SAS 140 .575 19.6 6.1 4.9 .9 2.6 .0 1.30
3.2 Jeremiah Fears NOP 202 .510 15.0 4.2 3.8 1.9 3.1 .0 .75
3.0 Will Richard GSW 136 .745 19.9 5.0 2.7 2.1 1.2 .0 1.29
2.8 Derik Queen NOP 149 .532 11.8 9.6 1.8 2.1 2.6 .9 .88
2.1 Sion James Cha 227 .784 13.2 4.3 1.6 .8 1.2 .5 .49
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.5 Collin M-Boyles Tor 146 .532 11.7 5.7 1.7 1.6 2.2 .7 .55
1.5 Walter Clayton Uta 148 .568 10.2 4.8 5.5 1.2 2.6 .2 .52
1.2 Tre Johnson Was 233 .561 12.4 3.7 1.4 .3 2.0 .9 .26
1.1 Egor Demin Brk 155 .489 6.9 5.5 4.2 1.9 2.6 .4 .36
.3 Nique Clifford Sac 108 .423 4.5 5.9 2.5 .9 .6 1.0 .17
.3 Hugo González Bos 110 .472 5.7 5.6 1.5 1.8 .9 .3 .18
.3 Javon Small Mem 99 .515 8.7 2.5 5.8 .0 2.5 .3 .18
.3 Tyrese Proctor Cle 92 .507 9.7 2.9 2.9 1.3 2.0 .0 .17
-.1 Ace Bailey Uta 166 .414 7.0 5.7 2.3 .6 2.3 .2 -.03
-.1 Ben Saraf Brk 94 .350 4.6 5.0 4.9 .8 3.5 .0 -.08
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2025 3:45 pm
by Mike G
1/6 of the season done, and rookies total 52 projected eWins.
Here they are listed by draft pick:
Code: Select all
# e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1 5.3 Cooper Flagg Dal 478 .519 14.4 7.3 2.9 1.4 2.5 .9 .91
2 2.2 Dylan Harper SAS 140 .575 18.8 5.8 4.6 .9 2.6 .0 1.20
3 4.8 VJ Edgecombe Phl 448 .507 12.5 5.8 3.4 1.5 2.0 .4 .75
4 4.8 Kon Knueppel Cha 424 .603 16.6 7.2 2.6 .9 2.8 .3 .87
5 1.1 Ace Bailey Uta 261 .507 10.6 6.0 2.2 1.1 2.4 .3 .31
6 1.0 Tre Johnson Was 327 .536 11.5 4.0 1.4 .5 2.1 .6 .23
7 3.6 Jeremiah Fears NOP 344 .515 15.6 4.3 3.2 2.5 3.5 .1 .81
8 1.6 Egor Demin Brk 246 .528 9.0 5.5 4.6 1.6 2.5 .3 .50
9 1.9 Collin M-Boyles Tor 204 .597 13.5 6.1 1.6 1.4 1.8 .8 .72
10 .0 Khaman Maluach Phx 35 .591 9.8 5.2 .7 .0 4.1 3.3 .06
# e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
11 5.3 Cedric Coward Mem 374 .616 15.9 7.4 3.2 1.2 1.5 .5 1.16
13 3.5 Derik Queen NOP 290 .538 12.4 9.2 3.1 1.3 3.0 1.0 .92
14 -.2 Carter Bryant SAS 54 .378 5.9 4.5 .0 1.1 2.2 .5 -.30
16 -.2 Yang Hansen Por 29 .375 5.4 4.1 .0 .0 3.0 2.0 -.43
17 .2 Joan Beringer Min 30 .800 12.1 7.6 .0 1.0 1.9 .9 .48
18 1.1 Walter Clayton Uta 178 .557 10.2 4.5 5.2 .9 2.7 .5 .45
19 -.2 Nolan Traoré Brk 33 .350 3.6 1.0 3.0 2.1 1.9 .0 -.38
21 .2 Will Riley Was 64 .476 6.4 5.8 2.3 1.0 .9 .0 .23
22 .5 Drake Powell Brk 124 .614 9.6 4.4 2.9 1.7 2.3 .3 .33
23 .9 Asa Newell Atl 80 .644 16.8 6.3 .3 1.4 1.5 1.1 .89
# e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
24 .1 Nique Clifford Sac 192 .420 5.0 5.3 2.9 .7 1.2 .7 .04
25 -.2 Jase Richardson Orl 30 .250 1.5 1.0 5.0 .0 2.9 .0 -.68
26 -.1 Ben Saraf Brk 97 .371 5.0 5.1 5.1 .8 3.3 .0 -.05
27 .1 Danny Wolf Brk 6 .500 7.3 10.1 7.6 .0 .0 .0 1.17
28 .3 Hugo González Bos 136 .524 6.4 5.3 1.4 2.2 1.4 .5 .20
29 .1 Liam McNeeley Cha 112 .507 7.7 5.0 2.5 .6 1.4 .3 .08
30 .6 YK Niederhauser LAC 22 .792 29.1 8.1 2.2 .0 1.3 1.3 2.12
31 .0 Rasheer Fleming Phx 36 .400 6.0 5.0 1.4 .7 .8 .8 .07
32 .5 Noah Penda Orl 47 .654 10.9 8.3 3.3 .7 1.9 1.3 .81
33 1.1 Sion James Cha 349 .650 9.9 4.3 1.6 1.1 1.2 .4 .23
# e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
34 5.0 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha 318 .819 14.9 10.3 .5 1.5 2.3 3.2 1.22
35 .1 Johni Broome Phl 6 .400 12.5 9.7 3.9 .0 .0 .0 1.16
36 .1 Adou Thiero LAL 5 1.00 34.0 6.2 .0 .0 .0 .0 2.21
37 .2 Chaz Lanier Det 98 .492 7.7 3.0 2.4 .6 .3 .0 .12
40 -.3 Micah Peavy NOP 94 .292 2.0 6.3 1.5 .3 .6 .3 -.25
41 .1 Koby Brea Phx 4 .667 30.9 0.0 6.0 .0 .0 .0 2.15
42 .3 Maxime Raynaud Sac 74 .473 7.4 9.3 1.2 .8 2.5 .8 .28
43 .0 Jamir Watkins Was 21 .750 7.6 7.6 .0 .0 1.4 1.4 .13
44 -.1 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 96 .467 3.5 7.9 .9 .6 .3 .6 -.05
46 .1 Amari Williams Bos 7 .500 6.9 8.4 3.4 4.2 .0 .0 1.11
# e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
48 .2 Javon Small Mem 99 .515 8.6 2.4 5.7 .0 2.5 .3 .13
49 .1 Tyrese Proctor Cle 142 .458 9.2 2.7 2.5 .9 1.3 .0 .08
50 .1 Kobe Sanders LAC 69 .510 8.9 4.2 2.6 1.2 2.3 .0 .08
51 .0 Mohamed Diawara NYK 15 .700 13.1 1.8 1.5 .0 1.9 .0 .12
54 -.2 Taelon Peter Ind 87 .392 4.2 4.7 3.4 .9 2.8 .7 -.16
56 2.9 Will Richard GSW 237 .697 18.0 4.6 2.2 1.9 1.4 .1 1.08
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Thu Nov 27, 2025 9:30 pm
by Mike G
22% of the season done, still adding to 52 expected eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
5.5 Kon Knueppel Cha 600 .626 17.9 6.8 2.5 .9 2.7 .2 .98
5.3 Cooper Flagg Dal 604 .520 15.2 6.8 3.0 1.5 2.4 .7 .98
4.9 Cedric Coward Mem 510 .595 15.7 7.6 3.1 1.0 1.7 .5 1.09
4.8 Derik Queen NOP 451 .542 14.2 9.4 4.0 1.5 3.4 1.2 1.18
4.3 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha 410 .797 13.7 10.7 .4 1.3 2.1 2.6 1.13
3.9 VJ Edgecombe Phl 560 .498 12.0 6.1 3.4 1.3 1.9 .5 .70
3.7 Jeremiah Fears NOP 508 .530 16.1 4.6 2.9 2.0 3.2 .2 .81
2.7 Will Richard GSW 330 .674 16.4 5.1 1.9 1.8 1.3 .1 .96
1.8 Dylan Harper SAS 157 .555 17.6 5.7 4.3 1.2 2.3 .0 1.15
1.7 Egor Dёmin Brk 355 .504 9.0 5.7 4.5 1.4 2.6 .3 .49
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.7 Ace Bailey Uta 366 .544 12.2 5.6 2.2 1.3 2.2 .3 .46
1.2 Collin M-Boyles Tor 256 .586 12.0 5.6 1.6 1.1 1.7 .7 .51
1.0 Tre Johnson Was 364 .562 12.4 3.9 1.4 .6 2.3 .7 .27
.8 Moussa Cisse Dal 157 .563 8.0 10.2 .5 .8 2.6 3.5 .57
.7 Drake Powell Brk 208 .618 10.4 3.6 2.8 1.7 2.0 .2 .32
.6 Caleb Love Por 197 .410 8.7 5.6 3.2 .7 1.6 .0 .35
.5 Walter Clayton Uta 207 .515 8.1 4.1 5.0 .9 2.7 .6 .23
.3 Tyrese Proctor Cle 191 .458 9.5 3.3 2.8 .8 1.1 .0 .20
.3 Maxime Raynaud Sac 145 .495 7.8 7.7 1.0 .8 1.3 .6 .26
.3 Sion James Cha 477 .573 7.4 4.5 1.7 1.2 1.3 .5 .06
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.2 Micah Peavy NOP 217 .447 6.3 5.5 1.8 1.0 .7 .3 .13
.2 Hugo González Bos 157 .493 5.4 5.0 1.6 2.2 1.2 .4 .14
.0 Nique Clifford Sac 250 .448 5.1 5.4 2.7 .8 1.3 .5 .02
-.1 Liam McNeeley Cha 161 .495 6.6 5.4 1.8 .4 1.3 .2 -.07
-.2 Kobe Sanders LAC 200 .556 9.8 2.7 1.6 .9 2.4 .3 -.08
These are all with >140 minutes.
Noticing quite a few rookies have been steadily getting stronger or weaker in these updates. Some have just missed time, but I think it's time for the overall projection to get growing.
Dividing their 16-to-19-game 'careers' in half (give or take a game), here are some steady climbers:
Code: Select all
Kon Knueppel Cha
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
9 282 .602 10.5 11.6 13.4 20.4 112 120 -2.3 .81
9 316 .658 9.1 15.5 14.5 22.2 120 124 1.9 1.13
Cooper Flagg Dal
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
9 292 .506 10.5 13.0 13.2 21.0 96 110 -3.2 .80
9 314 .544 9.3 17.1 12.0 21.8 108 111 -0.3 1.15
Derik Queen NOP
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
10 200 .528 15.1 14.5 17.9 22.7 104 114 -3.0 .88
9 252 .569 14.4 29.5 16.8 24.2 114 120 1.9 1.42
Jeremiah Fears NOP
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
10 263 .511 5.8 21.7 15.0 25.7 98 123 -4.5 .75
9 243 .563 7.5 13.8 13.2 25.5 108 121 -2.2 .87
Egor Dёmin Brk
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
8 154 .492 9.0 23.5 20.8 15.4 96 122 -3.1 .36
8 199 .516 8.6 25.0 15.8 19.8 101 122 -3.1 .59
Ace Bailey Uta
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
8 141 .383 9.1 12.1 14.4 18.2 88 121 -10.0 -.03
9 225 .636 8.3 12.7 12.3 20.2 119 124 0.4 .77
The eWins/484 min 1st-half numbers are from the Nov. 7 update.
Another handful have struggled of late:
Code: Select all
Cedric Coward Mem
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
10 264 .701 11.9 17.3 9.3 18.5 136 115 5.0 1.36
9 247 .509 11.9 15.5 11.5 20.6 105 118 -2.3 .80
VJ Edgecombe Phl
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
7 272 .591 8.4 18.2 11.0 19.5 122 117 0.9 .90
8 289 .419 9.6 14.3 11.2 19.6 97 118 -5.7 .51
Tre Johnson Was
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
7 180 .537 6.7 9.0 10.1 20.2 102 122 -3.7 .26
8 182 .596 5.9 7.4 17.1 20.2 97 133 -5.9 .28
Walter Clayton Uta
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
7 121 .555 9.1 27.8 15.0 15.8 122 118 -0.9 .52
6 86 .472 4.3 32.7 28.6 18.0 93 127 -6.4 -.18
Sion James Cha
G min TS% TRb% Ast% TO% Usg ORt DRt BPM e484
9 227 .796 6.8 7.6 13.7 10.5 140 121 0.3 .49
9 250 .382 6.9 7.8 14.3 10.7 85 123 -7.2 -.33
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Thu Dec 11, 2025 8:37 am
by Mike G
Season at 29% and rookies total 58 projected eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.1 Cooper Flagg Dal 808 .543 16.6 6.8 2.9 1.4 2.4 .7 1.11
5.5 Kon Knueppel Cha 803 .607 17.4 6.5 3.0 .9 2.6 .2 .97
5.1 Derik Queen NOP 622 .552 14.6 9.5 4.2 1.4 3.3 1.2 1.21
4.6 Cedric Coward Mem 651 .557 14.9 8.0 2.9 .8 2.0 .4 1.01
4.5 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha 562 .791 13.3 10.5 .5 1.1 1.7 2.8 1.14
4.0 VJ Edgecombe Phl 692 .508 12.6 6.1 3.6 1.4 1.9 .5 .79
3.6 Jeremiah Fears NOP 692 .519 15.4 4.6 3.1 1.9 3.0 .2 .77
2.5 Dylan Harper SAS 283 .540 17.5 4.7 4.8 1.3 2.3 .0 1.18
2.4 Will Richard GSW 440 .665 14.7 4.8 1.8 1.7 1.2 .1 .80
2.1 Egor Dёmin Brk 482 .515 10.1 5.5 4.8 1.4 2.7 .5 .60
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
1.7 Ryan Nembhard Dal 222 .656 17.2 2.9 7.4 .5 2.2 .0 1.13
1.6 Ace Bailey Uta 534 .544 11.9 5.1 2.1 1.3 2.1 .5 .42
1.5 Maxime Raynaud Sac 269 .578 12.8 8.4 1.5 .6 1.5 1.0 .80
1.4 Collin M-Boyles Tor 370 .613 12.2 6.4 2.0 1.2 2.3 .6 .57
1.0 Walter Clayton Uta 327 .560 10.1 4.1 5.4 .9 2.7 .4 .42
.8 Danny Wolf Brk 141 .602 13.9 8.5 3.0 .3 2.9 .5 .78
.8 Tre Johnson Was 364 .562 12.3 3.9 1.4 .6 2.3 .7 .27
.7 Caleb Love Por 288 .424 9.4 4.9 2.9 .8 1.5 .0 .33
.7 Moussa Cisse Dal 181 .558 7.6 10.0 .4 .7 2.2 3.3 .53
.5 Tyrese Proctor Cle 223 .488 11.0 3.3 2.9 .9 1.0 .0 .35
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.5 Drake Powell Brk 307 .601 9.4 3.2 2.9 1.5 1.9 .2 .21
.5 Hugo González Bos 215 .596 8.5 5.7 1.2 1.9 1.6 .4 .30
.4 Sion James Cha 626 .575 7.5 4.6 1.7 1.1 1.3 .6 .08
.3 Liam McNeeley Cha 254 .574 9.1 5.9 1.6 .5 1.2 .2 .18
.2 Ben Saraf Brk 203 .468 8.2 3.5 4.9 1.5 3.9 .5 .13
.2 Will Riley Was 160 .534 9.0 5.0 1.8 .8 1.9 .0 .13
.1 Nique Clifford Sac 323 .494 6.5 5.2 2.3 .8 1.5 .6 .04
.1 Micah Peavy NOP 343 .440 6.2 5.0 1.7 1.2 .8 .2 .03
.0 Kobe Sanders LAC 319 .556 9.7 3.5 1.8 1.0 2.2 .2 .00
.0 Carter Bryant SAS 142 .425 6.4 6.5 .2 .8 1.3 .4 .00
totals -- West 33.5 - 24.2 East
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Thu Dec 11, 2025 4:37 pm
by Crow
Will it be a spread out vote for rookie of the year or end up as expected for Flagg by far?
All for 1, race between 2-3 or notable spread of support for 4-7? Will points per game decide? Will any media look at / mention overall metrics? Do they ever?
How far have the biggest media voices advanced in analytic reading, understanding and presentation? Compared to the possible or reasonable to expect?
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Thu Dec 11, 2025 11:43 pm
by Mike G
Flagg is 24 games into his career. Here are some subtotals in 6-game quarter-careers:
Code: Select all
min TS% eFG% TRb% Ast% Stl% Blk% TO% Usg% ORt DRt BPM
196 .493 .413 10.4 14.5 1.2 1.2 11.5 20.6 98 112 -3.5
199 .531 .512 10.8 17.3 2.9 2.5 15.5 22.9 99 108 -0.2
211 .553 .529 8.5 13.6 1.6 1.1 10.4 20.8 110 112 -0.8
203 .614 .555 10.6 15.0 2.0 1.6 11.0 25.5 119 119 1.2
Shooting% and ORt-DRt increase in each quarter. BPM hits a small bump in the 3rd, likely due to drops in Reb and Ast.
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Wed Dec 17, 2025 2:04 pm
by Mike G
Alternative rookie race incorporating advanced stats at b-r.com
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced.html
Including eWins as calculated a few days ago but with current minutes.
Code: Select all
xyzW rookies Tm Min pW WS bW eW PER WS/48 BPM e484
1.84 Cooper Flagg Dal 884 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.0 15.7 .083 -0.2 1.11
1.82 Kon Knueppel Cha 883 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.8 15.2 .091 0.3 .97
1.58 R Kalkbrenner Cha 614 1.6 1.9 1.4 1.4 17.6 .155 0.6 1.14
1.44 Derik Queen NOP 681 1.7 1.0 1.3 1.7 17.1 .073 -0.6 1.21
1.40 Cedric Coward Mem 704 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 14.3 .094 -0.3 1.01
1.24 VJ Edgecombe Phl 770 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 12.6 .078 -1.2 .79
.95 Will Richard GSW 440 .8 1.3 1.0 .7 14.1 .145 0.6 .80
.82 Jeremiah Fears NOP 746 1.3 .1 .6 1.2 13.8 .005 -3.2 .77
.65 Dylan Harper SAS 329 .7 .5 .5 .8 15.6 .076 -1.2 1.18
.61 Collin M-Boyles Tor 385 .6 .8 .6 .5 13.1 .102 -1.3 .57
xyzW rookies Tm Min pW WS bW eW PER WS/48 BPM e484
.57 Ryan Nembhard Dal 281 .6 .6 .5 .7 14.5 .110 -1.1 1.13
.55 Egor Dёmin Brk 526 .6 .2 .6 .7 10.5 .022 -2.2 .60
.45 Maxime Raynaud Sac 333 .6 .4 .3 .5 14.0 .058 -3.2 .80
.41 Asa Newell Atl 158 .5 .6 .4 .3 19.1 .172 1.3 .78
.33 Walter Clayton Uta 348 .4 .2 .3 .3 11.1 .034 -2.8 .42
.32 Ace Bailey Uta 590 .5 .0 .2 .5 9.9 .002 -4.5 .42
.30 Noah Penda Orl 114 .3 .4 .3 .2 18.0 .171 0.9 1.04
.29 Danny Wolf Brk 192 .4 .2 .3 .3 14.1 .055 -1.9 .78
.15 Tre Johnson Was 396 .4 -.2 .2 .2 10.3 -.025 -4.3 .27
.05 Caleb Love Por 322 .2 -.1 -.1 .2 8.4 -.020 -6.0 .33
15.8 totals 17.7 13.7 14.9 16.7
These 'wins' are not corrected for number of games played by teams.
(Dal now with one game more than Cha)
Metrics weighted (in above order) 2-2-3-3
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Wed Dec 17, 2025 2:21 pm
by Crow
Any interest in subbing out PER and WS/48 for more modern metrics?
EPM, Darko, LeBron, CraftedPM blended metric, any if the RAPM variations...
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Wed Dec 17, 2025 6:35 pm
by Mike G
What this forum could use is a clearinghouse -- sticky thread -- of ongoing metrics: links, updates, a few tips on how to use the sites.
I've seen some that are hard or impossible to copy the stats without a subscription. Or you can grab 20 lines (of 600) at a time.
My own rule of thumb is I won't do 10 times as much work to make something 10% better, unless I am paid to.
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Wed Dec 17, 2025 10:19 pm
by Crow
Sure, use what you want. Some spots are tricky, some aren't.
By Darko
Charlotte Hornets Ryan Kalkbrenner -0.4
New Orleans Pelicans Jeremiah Fears -0.6
New Orleans Pelicans Derik Queen -0.7
Utah Jazz Ace Bailey -0.8
Golden State Warriors Will Richard -0.8
Charlotte Hornets Sion James -0.8
Charlotte Hornets Kon Knueppel -0.9
San Antonio Spurs Dylan Harper -1
Dallas Mavericks Cooper Flagg -1.1
Portland Trail Blazers Yang Hansen -1.4
By CraftedPM
Name CPM
Kon KnueppelCHA | SF -0.6
Ryan KalkbrennerCHA | C -0.7
Cedric CowardMEM | SG -0.7
Derik QueenNOP | C -0.9
VJ EdgecombePHI | SG -1
Will RichardGSW | SG -1.1
Walter Clayton Jr.UTA | PG -1.2
Flagg would be 8th after remove all small minute guys
James 9th
Harper 10th
So 7 or 8 are in top 10s similar to yours.
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2025 10:54 pm
by Mike G
Season at 38.4% and rookies total 63 projected eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.3 Cooper Flagg Dal 1105 .563 18.8 6.6 3.3 1.2 2.3 .9 1.29
6.3 Kon Knueppel Cha 1027 .632 20.0 6.2 3.2 .8 2.7 .3 1.13
5.5 Derik Queen NOP 850 .563 15.6 9.8 4.3 1.4 3.3 1.1 1.27
4.8 Cedric Coward Mem 835 .571 16.1 8.1 3.2 .8 2.1 .4 1.08
4.3 VJ Edgecombe Phl 910 .514 13.8 5.7 3.6 1.3 1.8 .4 .83
4.0 Ry. Kalkbrenner Cha 665 .777 13.6 10.1 .7 1.1 1.7 2.7 1.09
3.5 Jeremiah Fears NOP 890 .512 15.7 5.0 3.3 1.7 3.2 .2 .76
2.7 Dylan Harper SAS 455 .519 15.5 5.1 5.4 1.6 2.4 .1 1.09
2.5 Maxime Raynaud Sac 521 .579 14.3 9.7 1.3 .7 1.8 .9 .90
2.5 Egor Dёmin Brk 645 .527 12.1 5.1 4.6 1.5 2.9 .5 .66
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.2 Will Richard GSW 520 .667 15.2 5.1 1.7 1.8 1.3 .1 .82
1.6 Collin M-Boyles Tor 468 .609 12.4 7.1 2.1 1.3 2.2 .7 .65
1.4 Ace Bailey Uta 715 .525 11.8 5.0 1.8 1.1 1.9 .6 .37
1.3 Tre Johnson Was 533 .564 13.9 4.0 1.8 .7 2.1 .6 .45
1.3 Ryan Nembhard Dal 420 .553 12.6 3.0 7.3 .5 2.9 .0 .62
1.0 Noah Penda Orl 209 .545 10.0 11.4 2.9 .8 2.0 .9 .91
1.0 Walter Clayton Uta 433 .561 10.2 4.0 5.0 1.0 2.3 .4 .41
.9 Asa Newell Atl 243 .706 16.0 5.6 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.0 .74
.9 Hugo González Bos 384 .590 9.1 7.2 1.1 1.8 1.5 .6 .44
.9 Danny Wolf Brk 269 .513 11.8 7.6 2.7 .8 2.8 .4 .56
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.9 Caleb Love Por 446 .459 10.8 4.0 3.0 .9 1.7 .2 .36
.7 Jase Richardson Orl 216 .589 14.0 4.3 3.0 .9 1.7 .1 .63
.6 Drake Powell Brk 355 .614 10.4 3.5 3.1 1.5 2.0 .3 .31
.6 Sion James Cha 797 .564 8.0 4.8 1.8 1.0 1.2 .6 .13
.6 Moussa Cisse Dal 200 .551 8.1 10.5 .4 .8 2.2 3.2 .54
.5 Tyrese Proctor Cle 281 .479 10.9 3.7 3.1 .9 1.3 .0 .37
.4 Dylan Cardwell Sac 161 .530 5.6 9.0 1.3 1.8 1.5 3.3 .52
.4 Liam McNeeley Cha 261 .589 10.2 5.9 1.7 .5 1.2 .2 .25
.3 Will Riley Was 288 .505 8.7 4.2 2.2 .9 1.4 .3 .17
.2 Ben Saraf Brk 203 .468 8.7 3.5 5.1 1.5 4.0 .5 .16
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.1 Micah Peavy NOP 399 .462 6.8 4.9 1.6 1.2 .7 .2 .06
.1 Ethan Thompson Ind 249 .508 7.4 3.7 2.5 1.1 1.3 .6 .06
.0 Carter Bryant SAS 176 .452 7.4 6.8 .6 .7 1.6 .4 .04
.0 Nique Clifford Sac 515 .484 7.1 5.5 1.9 1.0 1.9 .5 .01
.0 Kobe Sanders LAC 433 .592 10.0 3.6 2.0 .9 2.4 .2 -.01
These are all with 160+ minutes.
Re: 2025-26 Rookies
Posted: Fri Jan 09, 2026 7:31 pm
by Mike G
Season at 45%, and rookies project to total 65 eWins.
Those with 180+ minutes:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.4 Cooper Flagg Dal 1285 .551 17.9 6.7 3.6 1.4 2.4 .8 1.29
6.4 Kon Knueppel Cha 1216 .627 20.0 6.4 3.3 .8 2.7 .2 1.18
5.3 Derik Queen NOP 984 .545 14.3 10.1 4.4 1.5 3.4 1.3 1.23
5.2 VJ Edgecombe Phl 1108 .531 14.3 5.6 3.6 1.6 1.7 .6 .96
4.9 Cedric Coward Mem 908 .576 16.4 8.7 3.3 .8 2.2 .4 1.17
3.2 Ryan Kalkbrenner Cha 665 .777 13.6 10.2 .7 1.1 1.7 2.6 1.09
3.1 Jeremiah Fears NOP 1036 .509 15.0 5.0 3.3 1.6 3.4 .3 .70
2.8 Egor Dёmin Brk 764 .544 12.9 5.3 4.5 1.4 2.8 .5 .75
2.7 Maxime Raynaud Sac 675 .586 13.4 9.8 1.2 .7 1.5 .8 .87
2.5 Dylan Harper SAS 578 .494 13.9 5.0 4.7 1.6 2.3 .3 .95
e82 11-20 tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.0 Collin M-Boyles Tor 608 .581 11.4 8.2 2.4 1.4 2.0 1.0 .75
1.9 Will Richard GSW 628 .646 13.9 4.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 .1 .69
1.8 Tre Johnson Was 692 .584 15.0 4.1 2.0 .9 2.3 .5 .55
1.4 Caleb Love Por 622 .496 12.3 4.3 3.0 .7 1.7 .2 .50
1.2 Ryan Nembhard Dal 506 .543 11.4 3.1 7.1 .4 2.9 .0 .53
1.2 Ace Bailey Uta 725 .523 11.5 5.0 1.8 1.2 1.9 .6 .35
1.1 Noah Penda Orl 282 .530 10.0 10.3 2.5 1.3 1.8 1.0 .88
1.1 Walter Clayton Uta 562 .562 10.4 3.8 4.6 .9 2.0 .5 .41
1.0 Danny Wolf Brk 388 .493 10.0 7.2 2.9 .9 2.2 .3 .49
.9 Jase Richardson Orl 304 .608 14.8 3.8 3.2 .9 1.8 .1 .66
e82 21-30 tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.8 Hugo González Bos 463 .568 8.2 7.6 1.1 1.5 1.4 .6 .39
.7 Asa Newell Atl 306 .656 13.9 5.6 1.3 1.0 1.7 .8 .55
.6 Sion James Cha 979 .568 7.6 4.9 2.1 .9 1.2 .6 .13
.5 Moussa Cisse Dal 200 .551 8.1 10.5 .4 .8 2.2 3.2 .53
.4 Tyrese Proctor Cle 289 .472 10.5 3.7 3.1 .9 1.2 .0 .34
.4 Drake Powell Brk 455 .587 9.9 3.1 2.6 1.2 1.9 .3 .17
.4 Liam McNeeley Cha 336 .567 9.3 6.1 1.8 .5 1.1 .3 .23
.3 Will Riley Was 365 .504 9.0 4.5 2.3 1.0 1.8 .4 .19
.2 Micah Peavy NOP 504 .453 6.7 4.7 1.8 1.2 .7 .3 .08
.1 Ben Saraf Brk 203 .468 8.6 3.5 5.1 1.4 4.0 .5 .14
e82 31-35 tm min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
.1 Kobe Sanders LAC 552 .574 9.7 4.0 2.2 1.0 2.5 .2 .04
.0 Ethan Thompson Ind 271 .517 7.3 3.4 2.4 1.1 1.3 .5 .02
-.1 Nique Clifford Sac 613 .499 7.3 5.0 1.8 1.1 2.0 .5 -.02
-.1 Nolan Traoré Brk 214 .444 6.5 2.6 3.8 1.1 2.4 .8 -.08
-.1 Carter Bryant SAS 221 .408 6.1 6.4 .6 .6 1.4 .3 -.11