APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri Apr 15, 2011 7:59 pm**

Previews and Predictions.

For each series, players are ranked by their predicted equivalent wins (eWins) contributed in 7 games. Minutes are guesses.

Magic vs Hawks
Showing team total eWins, players' regular season rates having been adjusted to total 7 wins.
Dwight is truly a one man gang this year.
In 7 games, Orl should have 4.19 wins. After 6 games, they'd have 3.6 wins: Magic in 6.
.

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3.85       4.19       Orl  240                           
3.15       2.81       Atl  240                           
eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.28  Howard,Dwight   Orl  38   .594   26.7  15.4   1.5   3.3  1.4   3.5  2.3   2.57
.87   Horford,Al      Atl  38   .580   18.4  10.8   3.6   2.7   .8   1.7  1.1   1.77
.81   Smith,Josh      Atl  36   .531   19.3  10.1   3.5   3.1  1.4   2.8  1.7   1.74
.66   Johnson,Joe     Atl  38   .512   20.1   4.6   4.8   1.9   .7   2.1   .1   1.37
.65   Nelson,Jameer   Orl  36   .542   18.1   4.1   8.1   3.4  1.2   3.2   .0   1.42

.50   Turkoglu,Hedo   Orl  36   .543   14.1   5.5   6.1   3.4  1.1   2.0   .4   1.12
.43   Anderson,Ryan   Orl  24   .585   18.8   9.3   1.3   3.2   .7   1.2   .9   1.41
.41   Bass,Brandon    Orl  28   .561   17.9   8.6   1.1   2.9   .5   1.8   .9   1.17
.33  Richardson,Jason Orl  28   .540   16.6   4.7   2.4   2.3  1.3   1.3   .2    .96
.27   Williams,Marvin Atl  26   .542   14.5   6.8   1.7   2.1   .7   1.2   .5    .84

.26   Crawford,Jamal  Atl  30   .536   16.8   2.1   3.3   1.4   .8   2.1   .2    .73
.14   Redick,J.J.     Orl  20   .580   15.1   2.7   2.4   1.8   .6   1.2   .1    .60
.14   Hinrich,Kirk    Atl  26   .527   12.0   3.2   4.1   3.6  1.0   2.0   .4    .47
.08   Teague,Jeff     Atl  10   .512   12.3   3.6   4.4   2.7  1.5   2.1   .8    .68
.08   Arenas,Gilbert  Orl  14   .438   11.5   3.9   5.1   3.4  1.3   3.2   .3    .50

eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
.07   Pachulia,Zaza   Atl  14   .543    9.6   9.2   1.4   4.7   .9   1.8   .6    .47
.02  Richardson,Quent Orl   8   .449    8.7   7.0   1.5   2.6   .9   1.2   .2    .30
.01   Thomas,Etan     Atl   2   .561   12.3   8.7    .7   3.8   .3   1.7  1.4    .62
.01   Clark,Earl      Orl   4   .460   10.3   7.1    .5   3.0   .5   2.0  1.1    .27
.01   Wilkins,Damien  Atl   6   .545    8.7   4.4   1.8   3.2  1.2    .9   .4    .17

.00   Powell,Josh     Atl   4   .486   10.4   6.8   1.0   3.6   .2   2.4   .2    .12
.00  Armstrong,Hilton Atl   2   .441    5.2   6.7   1.4   3.3  1.1   1.1  1.8    .11
-.01   Duhon,Chris    Orl   4   .442    5.0   2.3   5.3   1.2   .7   2.5   .1   -.15
-.02   Collins,Jason  Atl   8   .525    6.1   6.7   1.3   5.8   .5   1.6   .5   -.13

Boston vs New York
Shaq may play, and he may not. Other old guys may not be themselves.
Celts in 7 (maybe in 6).

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3.74        3.98      Bos  240                           
3.26        3.01      NYK  240                           
eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.94  Stoudemire,Amare NYK  40   .553   25.3   8.4   2.8   3.6    .9   3.3  2.0  1.93
.93   Anthony,Carmelo NYK  38   .564   27.1   7.0   3.2   3.4   1.0   2.4   .6  2.01
.82   Garnett,Kevin   Bos  32   .567   21.2  11.7   3.1   2.5   1.6   2.0   .9  2.09
.81   Pierce,Paul     Bos  36   .607   25.1   6.3   3.6   3.1   1.1   2.3   .7  1.86
.67   Rondo,Rajon     Bos  38   .490   11.5   4.8  12.0   1.8   2.2   3.5   .2  1.49

.62  Billups,Chauncey NYK  34   .568   20.9   3.7   6.7   3.0   1.1   2.7   .1  1.53
.55   Allen,Ray       Bos  36   .607   21.0   3.9   3.0   1.9   1.0   1.5   .2  1.30
.30   Fields,Landry   NYK  34   .590   12.1   7.8   2.4   1.7   1.2   1.6   .3   .81
.26   Davis,Glen      Bos  28   .490   14.6   6.9   1.4   3.4   1.2   1.3   .5   .84
.25   Krstic,Nenad    Bos  20   .583   17.7   9.5    .6   5.2    .6   1.6   .5  1.10

.24   Douglas,Toney   NYK  26   .529   13.8   4.2   4.3   3.0   1.5   1.5   .1   .85
.15  O'Neal,Shaquille Bos   8   .640   22.1   9.9   1.4   6.1    .8   2.9  2.1  1.59
.13   Green,Jeff      Bos  18   .544   15.6   5.0   1.1   3.7    .7   1.2   .8   .70
.08   Williams,Shawne NYK  18   .554   11.2   6.1   1.2   4.1   1.0   1.2  1.3   .48
.08   Turiaf,Ronny    NYK  16   .630    8.5   6.3   2.9   4.8   1.0   1.2  2.2   .51

eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.06  Williams,Shelden NYK   8   .617   11.5   8.4   2.1   5.7    .8   1.0   .7   .72
.05   O'Neal,Jermaine Bos  12   .494   11.2   7.7   1.0   5.2    .2   2.2  2.4   .44
.04   West,Delonte    Bos   8   .529   10.8   2.9   4.8   2.1   1.4   2.1   .7   .52
.02   Carter,Anthony  NYK   8   .532    8.1   3.9   4.6   3.0   1.8   2.5   .5   .31
.01   Walker,Bill     NYK   4   .578   11.7   4.8   1.4   3.1    .8   1.4   .2   .31

.01   Brown,Derrick   NYK   2   .694   12.9   5.1   1.4   3.7   1.3   2.3   .7   .42
.00   Wafer,Von       Bos   2   .517   11.0   2.9   2.0   2.1   1.0   1.1   .3   .25
.00   Murphy,Troy     Bos   2   .494    7.9   6.9   1.0   3.1   1.3   1.2   .2   .21
.00   Mason,Roger     NYK   2   .457    6.2   4.1   2.1   2.4    .6    .6   .2  -.06
-.03  Jeffries,Jared  NYK  10   .395    2.8   6.1   1.9   4.0   1.8   1.3  1.1  -.12

Bulls vs Pacers
Both teams run pretty deep, but Chicago has the best players.
Bulls (4.65 of 7) should have 3.99 wins after 6 games, 3.32 after 5.

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4.08      4.65        Chi  240                          
2.92      2.35        Ind  240 
eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.19  Rose,Derrick    Chi  38   .540   28.6   4.6   8.2   1.7   1.0   3.4   .6  2.45
.91   Boozer,Carlos   Chi  34   .534   23.5  12.8   3.2   3.7    .9   3.0   .3  2.10
.69   Granger,Danny   Ind  38   .544   22.6   5.9   2.7   2.9   1.2   2.8   .8  1.47
.66   Noah,Joakim     Chi  32   .566   15.8  13.5   2.8   3.7   1.1   2.2  1.6  1.66
.60   Deng,Luol       Chi  38   .540   18.9   6.2   2.9   1.9    .9   1.8   .5  1.28

.53   Hibbert,Roy     Ind  32   .499   16.9  10.5   2.9   4.3    .6   3.1  2.3  1.35
.46   Collison,Darren Ind  32   .527   16.8   3.7   6.5   1.8   1.4   3.1   .2  1.18
.33  Hansbrough,Tyler Ind  26   .519   17.4   8.5    .9   3.6    .8   1.7   .3  1.06
.29   Mcroberts,Josh  Ind  22   .597   13.3   9.0   3.5   3.8   1.1   2.1  1.3  1.09
.26   Dunleavy,Mike   Ind  22   .585   16.0   6.1   2.3   2.3    .9   1.5   .6   .98

.21   Gibson,Taj      Chi  20   .494   11.9  10.0   1.2   3.9    .8   1.4  1.9   .89
.18   George,Paul     Ind  24   .534   13.1   6.2   1.8   3.4   1.7   1.9   .7   .68
.14   Korver,Kyle     Chi  18   .567   15.4   3.3   2.6   3.0    .7   1.2   .3   .68
.12   Brewer,Ronnie   Chi  18   .510   10.0   5.3   2.7   1.5   1.9   1.0   .4   .62
.08   Watson,C.J.     Chi  10   .460   11.7   3.0   5.6   2.3   1.5   2.0   .3   .69

eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm  Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.07   Foster,Jeff     Ind  12   .490    6.0  11.9   1.6   4.3    .8    .9  1.0   .57
.07   Bogans,Keith    Chi  14   .556   11.0   4.4   2.9   3.0   1.0   1.1   .2   .47
.06   Thomas,Kurt     Chi  10   .522    7.4  10.6   2.0   5.1   1.0   1.3  1.2   .58
.05   Rush,Brandon    Ind  14   .534   12.1   4.3   1.2   2.1    .8   1.4   .7   .37
.03   Asik,Omer       Chi   8   .536    7.9  10.4   1.0   4.6    .6   1.9  1.6   .42

.02   Jones,Dahntay   Ind   4   .546   15.2   3.4   1.7   3.6   1.0   1.6   .4   .54
.02   Price,A.J.      Ind   4   .448   11.3   2.8   4.3   2.4   1.1   2.0   .0   .42
.01   Ford,T.J.       Ind   4   .429    8.2   3.4   5.9   2.9   1.5   2.6   .3   .36
.00   Posey,James     Ind   2   .483    8.5   5.5   1.3   3.8    .9    .9   .2   .13
.00   Jones,Solomon   Ind   4   .457    7.4   6.6   1.7   5.4    .7   2.0  1.2   .06

Heat vs Sixers
A very top heavy team vs a very deep and starless team.
After the Big3 for Miami, only Z even remotely resembles an average player.
Still, 4.14/7 = 3.55 in 6.

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3.82      4.14        Mia  240   
3.18      2.86        Phi  240   

eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
1.42  James,Lebron    Mia   40   .581   29.4   7.9   7.6   2.0  1.5   3.5   .6  2.79
1.18  Wade,Dwyane     Mia   38   .568   29.0   7.1   5.2   2.6  1.5   3.1  1.1  2.46
.76   Bosh,Chris      Mia   36   .557   21.4   9.4   2.2   2.3   .8   1.8   .6  1.69
.64   Iguodala,Andre  Phi   38   .520   14.9   6.1   6.3   1.7  1.5   2.1   .5  1.38
.63   Brand,Elton     Phi   36   .545   17.5   9.5   1.6   3.3  1.2   1.4  1.4  1.43

.52   Holiday,Jrue    Phi   36   .519   15.4   4.5   6.8   2.6  1.5   2.8   .4  1.20
.37   Young,Thaddeus  Phi   28   .559   17.5   7.0   1.3   2.6  1.4   1.5   .4  1.10
.36   Williams,Lou    Phi   24   .528   19.9   2.9   4.5   2.4   .9   1.9   .3  1.23
.29   Hawes,Spencer   Phi   22   .477   13.0  10.9   2.7   4.5   .7   2.2  1.5  1.09
.15  Ilgauskas,Zydrun Mia   16   .526   12.5  10.1   1.0   5.9   .7   1.7  1.8   .81

.15   Meeks,Jodie     Phi   20   .591   15.9   3.3   1.4   1.8  1.1   1.1   .1   .66
.12  Speights,Marrees Phi   12   .525   14.8   9.0   1.3   4.9   .3   1.6   .7   .86
.10   Chalmers,Mario  Mia   20   .533   10.7   3.5   4.4   3.5  1.7   2.0   .1   .49
.08   Bibby,Mike      Mia   24   .597   11.5   3.3   3.8   2.9   .7   2.0   .2   .37
.08   Turner,Evan     Phi   14   .478   10.4   6.0   2.9   2.6   .9   1.5   .2   .51

eW/7   Reg Sea per36   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
.07   Miller,Mike     Mia   16   .521    9.4   7.7   2.2   3.4   .8   1.6   .1   .42
.06   House,Eddie     Mia   12   .529   12.5   3.2   2.2   2.2  1.0    .9   .1   .46
.04   Jones,James     Mia   16   .622   11.8   3.7   1.0   2.7   .6    .4   .4   .31
.03   Nocioni,Andres  Phi    6   .532   12.5   6.4   1.6   3.6   .5   1.7   .5   .50
.01   Battie,Tony     Phi    4   .485    7.9   8.2    .9   4.7   .4    .9  1.1   .27

.01   Dampier,Eric    Mia    6   .577    6.2   8.3   1.1   3.5   .6   1.4  1.9   .21
.00   Howard,Juwan    Mia    4   .488    7.2   6.7   1.3   3.1   .5   1.3   .2   .05
-.05   Anthony,Joel   Mia   12   .565    3.9   6.6    .6   4.4   .2    .8  2.0  -.19

Posted: **Fri Apr 15, 2011 10:17 pm**

eW/7 is a handy scale.

Posted: **Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:31 am**

Posted: **Wed Apr 20, 2011 6:42 pm**

Posted: **Fri Apr 22, 2011 12:24 pm**

Celtics 2, Knicks 0
Avg score 91.5-89.0
Pythagorean wins 1.18 - .82
eWins 1.09 - .91

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.44   Anthony,Carmelo NY   39   .514   29.6  10.6   4.4   4.7    .9   2.8   .9   2.69
.31   Allen,Ray      Bos   41   .824   28.0   4.6   1.1   1.4   1.4   1.4   .0   1.84
.30   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   43   .482   18.4   5.6   7.3    .0    .9   2.1   .0   1.68
.24   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   35   .409   13.8  12.3   5.3   1.6   2.1   3.2   .5   1.68
.22  Stoudemire,Amare NY   29   .516   23.6  11.3   1.8   2.0    .7   3.9  1.3   1.83

.16   Pierce,Paul    Bos   42   .500   18.0   4.0   2.7   3.0    .9   2.6   .9    .91
.14   Turiaf,Ronny    NY   26   .682   14.4   6.3   2.7    .0    .7    .7  2.9   1.33
.11   Jeffries,Jared  NY   23   .542   10.8  12.2    .7   2.3   1.5   1.5  2.3   1.18
.11  O'Neal,Jermaine Bos   22   .778   17.3   6.2    .8   7.9    .0   1.8  5.3   1.21
.08   Douglas,Toney   NY   30   .440   12.2   4.5   2.4   3.6   1.2    .6   .0    .62

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.02   Williams,Shawne NY   16   .643   12.2   4.7   1.0   4.3   1.1   2.2  1.1    .34
.01   Carter,Anthony  NY   11   .286    4.3   4.9   3.0    .0   1.5   1.5  1.5    .18
.00   West,Delonte   Bos   14   .429    7.2   3.7   3.8   3.7    .0   1.2   .0    .02
.00   Krstic,Nenad   Bos    4   .000     .0   8.2   4.1    .0    .0    .0   .0    .06
.00  Billups,Chauncey NY   18   .417   10.0   2.3   4.2   2.1    .0   3.2   .0   -.04

-.01   Green,Jeff    Bos   15   .385    9.5   3.5    .0   6.9    .0   1.1  1.1   -.18
-.02   Mason,Roger    NY    9   .375    4.4   2.0    .0   3.7   1.9    .0   .0   -.42
-.02   Davis,Glen    Bos   26   .250    2.6   7.4   1.4   4.0   1.3   1.3   .0   -.19
-.03   Walker,Bill    NY   25   .265    4.1   6.7    .7   2.7   1.4   2.1   .0   -.26
-.06   Fields,Landry  NY   17   .250    2.7   1.2    .0    .0    .0   1.1  1.1   -.84

Bos shooting .508 Eff%, NY .470

Posted: **Fri Apr 22, 2011 8:42 pm**

Hawks 1, Magic 1
Avg score : Atl 92.5, Orl 90.5
Pythag 1.14 - .86
eWins 1.07 - .93

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eWins   per36 rates     tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.66   Howard,Dwight    Orl   47   .712   38.3  15.8    .3   3.8    .8   5.7   .8   3.38
.33   Crawford,Jamal   Atl   31   .640   33.2   1.3   4.3   3.4    .6   1.7   .6   2.54
.25   Smith,Josh       Atl   35   .542   19.2   8.2   3.1   4.3   1.6   2.1   .5   1.73
.25   Nelson,Jameer    Orl   37   .526   21.0   7.6   1.6   3.5   1.0   1.5   .0   1.60
.24   Johnson,Joe      Atl   44   .542   18.0   5.4   4.7   1.6   1.2   2.9   .0   1.33

.20   Horford,Al       Atl   36   .464   14.0   9.1   3.1   2.1    .5   1.5  1.0   1.35
.11   Hinrich,Kirk     Atl   29   .500   15.2   4.2   3.1   5.1    .6   1.9  1.3    .91
.09   Turkoglu,Hedo    Orl   39   .296    6.3   4.2   5.8   1.9   1.4    .9   .5    .59
.05   Williams,Marvin  Atl   18   .455   10.5   4.5   2.4    .0   2.0   1.0   .0    .65
.03   Arenas,Gilbert   Orl    9   .444   17.2   2.2   9.1   6.0   2.0   8.0   .0    .69

eWins   per36 rates     tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.02   Bass,Brandon     Orl   19   .333    7.4  10.3   2.4   4.2    .0   2.1   .0    .32
.01   Pachulia,Zaza    Atl   14   .400    4.9  12.6   1.5   8.9    .0   1.3   .0    .21
-.01  Anderson,Ryan    Orl   26   .444    5.1   6.7    .8   2.7    .0    .0   .0   -.11
-.01  Thomas,Etan      Atl    4   .000     .0   5.7    .0   5.2    .0    .0   .0   -.89
-.01  Redick,J.J.      Orl   19   .345    8.8   4.2   2.2   4.8   1.0   2.9   .0   -.17

-.03  Armstrong,Hilton Atl    4   .000     .0   5.7    .0  15.6    .0   5.2   .0  -1.99
-.04  Powell,Josh      Atl    8   .500     .0   5.0    .0  11.3    .0    .0   .0  -1.10
-.04  Collins,Jason    Atl   19   .250    1.7   1.1    .0   9.4   4.2   1.0  1.0   -.58
-.05  Richardson,Jason Orl   35   .300    5.1   4.0    .6   3.7   1.6   1.6   .5   -.33
-.05  Richardson,Quent Orl   10   .000     .0   4.0    .0   1.8    .0   3.6  1.8  -1.29

Atl shooting .520, Orl .487

Posted: **Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:08 pm**

Bulls 3, Pacers 0
Avg score 96 - 91
Pythagorean wins 2.01 - .99
eWins 1.76 - 1.24

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eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.63   Rose,Derrick    Chi   41   .541   33.9   5.5   4.3   2.4   2.1   4.2   .9   2.46
.36   Granger,Danny   Ind   37   .552   22.8   3.9   2.9   3.0   2.0   1.0   .3   1.57
.28   Noah,Joakim     Chi   32   .391    8.9  13.1   2.8   4.7   1.6   1.6  3.5   1.39
.26   Deng,Luol       Chi   42   .500   16.3   6.9   2.7   2.0    .9   2.0   .3   1.00
.21   Korver,Kyle     Chi   21   .857   25.3   4.2   4.3   5.0    .0   2.2  1.1   1.61

.20   Collison,Darren Ind   28   .523   16.4   3.5   5.7   1.4   1.8   2.7   .5   1.13
.15   Boozer,Carlos   Chi   33   .413   11.7  13.2   1.3   4.4    .7   3.7   .4    .73
.12   Mcroberts,Josh  Ind   15   .463   13.8   9.4   2.9   7.5   1.5    .7   .7   1.22
.11   Hibbert,Roy     Ind   25   .417   11.3   9.1   1.0   7.4   1.0   3.0  3.0    .71
.10  Hansbrough,Tyler Ind   36   .400   11.4   5.0   1.8   2.7   1.4   1.4   .0    .43

.09   George,Paul     Ind   29   .333    4.6   7.4   1.7   3.0   2.1   2.1  3.4    .49
.07   Thomas,Kurt     Chi   13   .556    9.8   9.5   2.0   4.4    .9    .9  1.8    .89
.07   Dunleavy,Mike   Ind   14   .538   12.2   0.8   5.6   1.6   1.6    .0   .0    .81
.06   Price,A.J.      Ind   17   .481   17.2   3.9   2.0   2.7   2.0   4.1   .0    .60
.06   Gibson,Taj      Chi   15   .625    9.4   9.9    .9   2.3    .0   3.1  3.8    .68

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.05   Foster,Jeff     Ind   20   .625   10.5   7.4   1.7   4.7   1.2   2.9  1.2    .44
.05   Brewer,Ronnie   Chi   14   .400    6.2   8.0   4.7    .8   1.6   1.6   .0    .61
.03   Ford,T.J.       Ind    3   1.25   35.8    .0   3.6    .0    .0   3.8   .0   1.82
.03   Jones,Dahntay   Ind    5   .579   22.7   2.1    .0   6.5    .0    .0   .0    .86
.02   Watson,C.J.     Chi    8   .391   11.9   1.5   8.0   5.5   2.8   5.5   .0    .47

.02   Rush,Brandon    Ind   11   .643   10.8   2.9   2.9   3.0   1.0   1.0   .0    .34
.02   Bogans,Keith    Chi   18   .500    7.6   3.8   1.6   2.1   1.4    .0   .0    .19

Rose has been as good as any 2 players other players from both teams.

Posted: **Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:44 pm**

Heat 3 , Sixers 0
Avg score 97 - 85.3
Pythag 2.54 - .46
eWins 2.02 - .98

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.74   James,Lebron    Mia   42   .569   26.0  10.9   6.0   1.4   .6    .9   .9   2.82
.56   Wade,Dwyane     Mia   36   .558   27.3   8.3   6.4   2.4  1.0   3.4  1.4   2.51
.49   Bosh,Chris      Mia   39   .551   24.0   9.6   1.2   1.6  1.3   1.6  1.3   2.02
.30   Holiday,Jrue    Phi   38   .593   18.0   3.1   4.2   1.6  1.9   1.3   .3   1.27
.24  Ilgauskas,Zydrun Mia   17   .694   23.3  15.4    .9   3.7   .0   1.5  1.5   2.26

.16   Williams,Lou    Phi   26   .446   13.8   1.7   5.6   1.8  1.8    .4   .0    .97
.14   Brand,Elton     Phi   37   .547   12.2   8.0    .0   4.0   .3    .7  1.0    .60
.14   Young,Thaddeus  Phi   26   .400   15.7   8.3    .4   4.3  1.3   2.2   .4    .84
.11   Iguodala,Andre  Phi   38   .339    5.1   6.2   7.9   2.6  1.0   3.2   .6    .48
.07   Jones,James     Mia   25   .667   11.9   6.2    .6   1.4   .5    .9   .5    .46

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07   Turner,Evan     Phi   14   .633   14.6   5.3   1.4   3.9   .8    .0   .0    .76
.05   Hawes,Spencer   Phi   16   .474   12.8   5.3   1.4   6.2   .0   1.6  1.6    .45
.02   Meeks,Jodie     Phi   27   .500    8.8   3.1   1.3   1.9  1.4    .5   .0    .11
.01   Battie,Tony     Phi    7   .875   11.5   7.4    .0   7.7   .0    .0   .0    .33
.01   peights,Marrees Phi    7   .167    3.0   9.4   1.6   6.5   .0    .0  1.6    .18

-.01  Anthony,Joel    Mia   27   .344    3.8   6.1    .5   3.3   .4    .8  2.1   -.08
-.02  Chalmers,Mario  Mia   20   .308    3.8   2.4   5.2   4.5  1.1   1.7   .0   -.19
-.04  Bibby,Mike      Mia   27   .381    6.7   3.4   2.5   1.4   .0   2.3   .5   -.26

Posted: **Fri Apr 22, 2011 10:10 pm**

Rose well ahead of predicted contribution rate. Boozer lagging. Bosh ahead of expected pace of contribution.

Posted: **Sat Apr 23, 2011 2:04 pm**

Celtics 3 , Knicks 0
Avg score 98.7 - 91.3
Pythag wins 2.21 - .79
eWins 1.85 - 1.15

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.53   Rondo,Rajon     Bos   42   .478   16.7   7.4  11.6   1.2   1.2   2.6   .0   2.02
.49   Allen,Ray       Bos   39   .831   31.3   4.3   1.2   1.5   1.5   1.5   .0   1.99
.49   Anthony,Carmelo  NY   38   .477   22.9  11.3   5.0   3.9   1.3   3.6  1.0   2.07
.44   Pierce,Paul     Bos   39   .644   29.3   4.0   2.3   3.1   1.6   2.8   .6   1.80
.32   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   34   .424   12.8  13.4   5.3   1.8   2.5   3.9   .4   1.51

.15   Stoudemire,Amare NY   30   .476   15.5   8.5   1.6   2.1    .4   2.9   .8    .83
.15   Jeffries,Jared   NY   26   .521   10.4   9.6    .4   2.6   1.3    .9  2.6    .90
.14   Williams,Shawne  NY   21   .684   16.5   5.9   1.5   2.2   1.6   1.6  1.6   1.08
.13   Douglas,Toney    NY   30   .561   15.4   4.4   2.7   3.6    .8   1.6   .0    .69
.12   Turiaf,Ronny     NY   20   .741   15.2   5.4   2.3   1.2    .6   1.8  2.5    .96

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.10   O'Neal,Jermaine Bos   23   .625   12.5   5.7   1.7   7.5    .0   2.1  4.8    .71
.02   Green,Jeff      Bos   17   .413   11.5   5.1    .0   7.5    .7   1.4  1.4    .20
.02   Mason,Roger      NY   11   .542   11.9   1.1   1.9   3.0   1.0    .0   .0    .27
.02   Carter,Anthony   NY    9   .444    9.6   4.2   2.5    .0   1.3   2.6  1.3    .31
.00   Davis,Glen      Bos   24   .294    3.6   7.7   2.2   3.4   1.0   1.0   .0    .02

-.01  Billups,Chauncey NY   12   .417    9.3   2.3   4.2   2.1    .0   3.1   .0   -.10
-.02  Walker,Bill      NY   25   .340    6.5   5.1    .9   3.3   1.9   2.3   .0   -.15
-.03  West,Delonte    Bos   14   .333    4.1   2.6   3.6   3.3    .8   1.6   .0   -.29
-.03  Krstic,Nenad    Bos    5   .000     .0   6.6   2.3   2.1    .0   4.1   .0   -.85
-.05  Fields,Landry    NY   19   .214    2.4   3.6   2.0    .0   1.3   2.7  1.3   -.39

With the wide ranges of shooting%, it's hard to see whether teams are shooting well.
Bos .545, NY .490 . Celts' better shooters have taken more shots, not so for NY.

Posted: **Sat Apr 23, 2011 2:46 pm**

Hawks 2 , Magic 1
Avg score 91 - 88.3 , Atl
Pythag wins 1.79 to 1.21
eWins 1.65 - 1.35

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.73   Howard,Dwight   Orl   46   .676   30.1  14.7    .2   3.8    .5   4.5  1.3   2.51
.53   Crawford,Jamal  Atl   30   .587   33.9   2.2   4.4   3.6    .8   1.6   .8   2.78
.37   Nelson,Jameer   Orl   38   .473   17.7   6.5   4.7   2.8   1.2   1.6   .0   1.55
.36   Johnson,Joe     Atl   44   .492   18.0   5.0   4.7   1.1    .8   1.9   .0   1.32
.33   Smith,Josh      Atl   36   .534   18.2   8.9   2.7   3.4   1.3   2.7   .7   1.46

.25   Horford,Al      Atl   38   .453   13.4   8.0   2.2   2.2    .6   1.3   .9   1.04
.14   Hinrich,Kirk    Atl   28   .517   14.8   3.9   3.6   4.8    .4   1.3   .9    .82
.12   Turkoglu,Hedo   Orl   37   .313    7.8   3.6   5.6   2.6   1.0    .7   .3    .53
.09  Richardson,Jason Orl   35   .406    9.2   6.1   2.0   3.5   1.0   1.0   .7    .42
.08   Williams,Marvin Atl   16   .500   11.2   5.5   3.8   2.5   2.5   1.7   .0    .85

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.07   Pachulia,Zaza   Atl   18   .500    6.5  11.2   3.3   9.4    .0    .7   .7    .58
.05   Bass,Brandon    Orl   23   .450   10.3   8.4   1.2   3.3    .5   2.2   .5    .32
.04  Richardson,Quent Orl   12   1.125  14.1   6.5   1.3   3.5    .0   2.4  1.2    .49
.03   Arenas,Gilbert  Orl    6   .444   20.5   2.6  10.7   7.1   2.4   9.4   .0    .71

-.01  Powell,Josh     Atl    6   .500    5.5   8.2    .0  12.4    .0    .0   .0   -.35
-.02  Redick,J.J.     Orl   19   .383   12.3   3.0   1.5   4.0    .7   2.7   .0   -.20
-.04 Armstrong,Hilton Atl    2   .000     .0   6.9    .0  18.8    .0   6.3   .0  -2.54
-.04  Anderson,Ryan   Orl   23   .364    4.2   6.6   1.2   4.9    .5    .5   .0   -.31
-.06  Collins,Jason   Atl   18   .400    3.0   3.2    .0   8.7   2.9    .7   .7   -.55

Atl shooting .508 to Orl's .492
Not-Dwight Magics are shooting .422
Orlando averaging 9 more rebounds (Dwight 17.7) and 4 more turnovers.

Posted: **Sat Apr 23, 2011 3:03 pm**

Crow wrote:Rose well ahead of predicted contribution rate. Boozer lagging. Bosh ahead of expected pace of contribution.

In the opening post, Previews and Predictions, eWins per 484 minutes are from the regular season, and the projected (round 1) eWins are forced to add to 7.0 for both teams.
This was done in 3 stages:

- Players' season e484 rates were multiplied by factors, between .80 and .87, depending on the series, to add to 7.
- From their e484, I subtracted a fraction, from .15 to .25, depending on the series.
It doesn't seem right to expect everyone to contribute, say, 84% of their e484 in the playoffs (1st round); nor perhaps that they'd all lose .20 from their rates. So:
- I averaged these first 2 adjustments.

Pure subtraction means that marginal players (e484 below .25) become non-contributors or worse.
Superstars (over 2.00) are less affected, and their share of the eWins may even increase.

Pure multiplication would suppose that marginal players are hardly affected: .20 vs .25, for example.
I assume it's really somewhere in between.

Since the average regular season opponent is a .500 team (approx.), and the avg playoff opponent is a bit over .600, it stands to reason that everyone's aggregate win rate should be about 82% of their regular season rates.

So, anyone getting 90% of their RS e484 rate is really doing OK. Over 100% is superb.

Posted: **Sat Apr 23, 2011 4:11 pm**

The eWins build but comparison with the eW/7 prediction during a series is not completely obvious as is and prompts me to either convert accumulated eWins in x game to an eW/7 basis or convert both to a per game basis. Having either method done in the writeup for all players as series progress would make it more likely for me to check more numbers and to make sense out of them quicker.

Posted: **Sat Apr 23, 2011 8:49 pm**

You can see what order players rank in their playoff series. Rose is 1st, Bosh is 3rd, both as predicted; but as you say, they're both above expectation.

Since I was just trying to put players in an order, seeing how they fall into tiers, expected and actual, is quite a bit better than anything else I've seen. Yeah, eWins per game could be another column, but ...

eWins per 7 games (or WS or WARP per 7 G) might be a useful way to look at overall playoff contributions. The most WS in a postseason, 5.9 by Tim Duncan in 2003, came via 24 playoff games. Jordan in '91 got 4.7 and finished the job in 17 games. Which is greater?

Probably, eW/G thru X rounds is a practical comparison, without conjuring up 'equivalent wins'. That's what I've done in prior years, after each round.

Meanwhile, you can suppose Jamal Crawford is a surprise at #2 in the Atl/Orl series; scrolling up, he should be #10 or 11.

Posted: **Sun Apr 24, 2011 2:45 pm**

Bulls 3 , Pacers 1
Avg score 93 - 90.5
Pythag 2.36 - 1.64
eWins 2.18 - 1.82

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.68   Rose,Derrick    Chi   41   .493   26.9   4.7   5.5   1.7   2.4   3.7   .9   1.99
.52   Granger,Danny   Ind   37   .547   24.0   5.3   3.2   2.2   1.5   1.0   .2   1.70
.41   Noah,Joakim     Chi   32   .474   14.0  13.6   1.9   5.0   1.2   1.7  2.6   1.55
.29   Deng,Luol       Chi   43   .493   15.5   5.5   2.5   2.1    .8   1.7   .2    .82
.27   Boozer,Carlos   Chi   34   .425   12.9  13.0   2.1   4.1    .8   3.8   .8    .95

.24   Hibbert,Roy     Ind   27   .461   14.6  10.1   1.1   6.4    .7   3.2  3.2   1.05
.23   Korver,Kyle     Chi   21   .736   22.9   3.6   3.2   5.2    .4   1.7   .9   1.29
.19  Collison,Darren  Ind   29   .449   13.0   3.2   5.0   2.0   1.6   2.3   .7    .80
.17   George,Paul     Ind   28   .411    7.4   7.8   1.8   2.8   2.4   2.1  2.8    .75
.14   McRoberts,Josh  Ind   17   .439   13.0   8.3   3.2   7.4   1.6   1.6   .5    .98

eWins   per36 rates    tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14   Price,A.J.      Ind   17   .530   21.6   3.8   2.2   2.2   1.7   3.3   .0   1.01
.13   Dunleavy,Mike   Ind   13   .553   16.5   2.1   4.9   1.4   1.4    .0   .0   1.14
.10   Foster,Jeff     Ind   19   .567    9.4  10.5   1.5   5.3   1.0   2.4  1.5    .66
.09   Thomas,Kurt     Chi   12   .636   13.8   8.3   1.7   5.6    .8   1.6  1.6    .95
.09  Hansbrough,Tyler Ind   33   .378   10.4   4.4   1.5   2.8   1.4   1.4   .0    .31

.07   Brewer,Ronnie   Chi   13   .455    7.5   8.3   4.0   1.5   1.5   1.5   .0    .67
.05   Gibson,Taj      Chi   15   .385    5.5  10.0   1.3   3.6    .0   2.4  3.0    .40
.04   Rush,Brandon    Ind    9   .500    9.7   5.1   3.1   4.1   1.0   1.0   .0    .46
.03   Watson,C.J.     Chi    8   .407   14.2   2.7   8.6   9.0   2.6   7.8   .0    .49
.03   Bogans,Keith    Chi   19   .462    6.3   3.9   1.2   1.6   1.1    .0  1.1    .19
.02   Jones,Dahntay   Ind   10   .516   16.4   0.9   1.0   5.7   1.0   1.9   .0    .29

Bulls shooting "better", .493 to .483, and winning on the boards 48.6 to 38.5 rpg.
Pacers staying close with avg +2.5 turnovers forced. Rose and Watson combine for 5.8 TO in 49 min.

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