APBRmetrics

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back2newbelf



Joined: 21 Jun 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2011 5:10 pm Post subject: Adjusted Points Per Shot Reply with quote
Using the technique described here on shots only. No Free Throws. League average was 0.981 Points per Shot. 4 year analysis

http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/pps
http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/pps_no_to

Second version is without all shots which came directly after a turnover in the play by play

Optimal lambda for offense was 3000, 4000 for defense

Shaq and Dwight obviously look good without the Free Throws. Kyle Korver at #9? hm. A couple of shot blockers near the top on defense
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EvanZ



Joined: 22 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 29, 2011 5:57 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
9.1 mean 1.091, right? 9.1 per 100 shots?
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back2newbelf



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 4:35 am Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:
9.1 mean 1.091, right? 9.1 per 100 shots?

Assuming you're talking about Steve Nashs rating:
-the 9.1 is per 200 shots, not 100
-it's 9.1 above average(!). A player with an offensive rating of 3 (per 100) adds 3/100=0.03 to the average of 0.981, assuming we have an otherwise average lineup. Resulting predicted Points per Shot would be 0.98+0.03=1.01
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Last edited by back2newbelf on Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:06 am; edited 1 time in total
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 6:50 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Now I'm more confused than I was before. It's points per possession or per shot? And by 200 possessions, you mean it takes into account offense and defense?
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back2newbelf



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:12 am Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:
Now I'm more confused than I was before. It's points per possession or per shot? And by 200 possessions, you mean it takes into account offense and defense?

Ah &%$§, wanted to write "per shot". Everything is "per shot". The "per 200" column is just the sum of offensive and defensive impact, or the overall impact.
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 30, 2011 7:23 am Post subject: Reply with quote
back2newbelf wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
Now I'm more confused than I was before. It's points per possession or per shot? And by 200 possessions, you mean it takes into account offense and defense?

Ah &%$§, wanted to write "per shot". Everything is "per shot". The "per 200" column is just the sum of offensive and defensive impact, or the overall impact.


ok, got it!
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Shaq had the 5th highest positive impact on team offensive points per shot (for all shots) ... when he played.

James #2, Dirk #6.

Boozer was 7th, R Allen 9th in the time period covered.


A few names from the bottom 10% with the estimated worst impact (though of course there always could be some error, big or small): Taj Gibson, Brandon Jennings, Evan Turner, Tyreke Evans, Tyler Hansbrough and Shannon Brown.

Straight from the heart. I love it, it's just the way everyone who isn't a fan sees it.

Adjusted Points Per Shot are now on my site again. Click

3-year analysis with lower weight to older seasons. And1's are accounted for.

R^2 between adj. PPS and standard RAPM, for this timeframe, is 0.63. Players with largest positive difference between RAPM and adj.PPS are extremely good rebounders (Z. Randolph, R. Evans) or players that help with turnovers by avoiding own TO's and causing opponent TO's (Chris Paul, Mike Conley).

LeBron with a -1.6 on defense. Jeremy Lin is ranked #17 - he's probably not great at avoiding and causing turnovers (his RAPM is middle of the pack)

Will you be posting pair and 5 man lineup RAPM data again in near future? That would be great.

Crow wrote:Will you be posting pair and 5 man lineup RAPM data again in near future? That would be great.

Digging further into pair RAPM is on my to-do list. That being said, I'll check first whether pair RAPM actually outperforms standard RAPM in terms of OOS error. If it doesn't (which was the case last time I ran it*) this would essentially mean that one should just add up the ratings of the 2 players to get their pair rating - in that case I don't really see a point in posting adjusted pair/5-man-unit rating

*My approach will be slightly different this time, so I think it's possible that I see an effect this time