Nate Silver Article (BobboFitos, 2011)
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 7:20 pm
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BobboFitos
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:56 pm Post subject: Nate Silver Article Reply with quote
http://tinyurl.com/4swblez
Solid article. Had a question though - the main contention was Melo's effect of raising his teammates' TS% completely overpowers his own TS%. This is basically OAPM attributed to a marketable 4 factor (well, actually 2, both eFG and FT/FG, bc it uses TS) but I was wondering:
What the effect of raw usage is on average (for your teammates, not yourself)? It makes sense that ANY high volume shooter raises the TS of his teammates, since they're taking the marginal shots away from teammates that otherwise would take them; it's not that they're creating inherently easier looks. (If that was the case, it would be reflected in their apg tallys) Has anyone run a regression on usage vs teammates' TS? Is Carmelo especially special in this regard, or is he simply a 30%+ usage guy who is doing what most 30% usage guys do.
Basically, the old usage vs efficiency argument, but instead of looking at the individual's skill curve, rather the skill curve of the average teammate. (Seems like the sample is much larger other than individual players increasing or decreasing their shot load)
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Mike G
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:23 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
How would you know what is affecting what?
Does a player's raised Usg% cause his teammates' TS% to rise?
Or does a team's low TS% cause the player to raise his Usg%?
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jmcfaul13
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:32 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Didn't George Karl start coaching the team the same year Carmelo came into the league? Perhaps it is his system that raises a player's TS% and not Carmelo.
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Crow
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:03 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G's important question: "How would you know what is affecting what?"
Not sure of the specific split of what actions are affecting teammates but there is another estimate that can be a stepping stone in thinking about the "who" is having impact.
Joe Sill's multi-season (thru 08-09), factor level Adjusted +/= splits had Anthony at the 95th (100 being best) percentile for team level eFG% impact. It would seem the positive impact would "have to" come from helping teammate shooting as his own shooting is weak.
That is, if you find the method to be valid or reasonably useful despite estimated error. Note that this is measuring the impact of Anthony's field shooting, not scoring, as getting free throws is its own factor.
You still have to separate the direct impact of a player's own shooting from the other stuff he does that might affect his teammates (if that is your goal) but you could find the statistical +/- impact of his own shooting and deduct it from his total "eFG% impact" converted to point value.
In case it is of interest or helps the discussion at all, here was the top 5% on this (full) eFG% impact factor of Adjusted +/- metric from highest estimate on down:
Steve Nash
Rashard Lewis
Ray Allen
Kobe Bryant
LeBron James
Hedo Turkoglu
Dwight Howard
Dwyane Wade
Deron Williams
Tim Duncan
Pau Gasol
Dirk Nowitzki
Leandro Barbosa
Kevin Garnett
Shaquille O'Neal
Chris Paul
Vince Carter
Carmelo Anthony
Raja Bell
I haven't separated what I have in the past called the "local" impact of a player (in this case his own shooting) from his "global" impact on teammate shooting for these guys, but it could be done into at least those two piles.
Separating out what action exactly are having positive impact on teammates and adding positive to the second pile is beyond the intent or reach of this metric as implemented. Probably would have to count more uncounted things and for every game to go further with this approach. May instead have to rely on more limited counting and the eye and judgment.
The high player usage / teammate TS% or offensive efficiency check that Rob suggests would be worth looking at. With the Adjusted +/- factor level information you can estimate a player's overall impact found in his own shooting but also resulting from his spacing, moving. passing, usage and attention drawing and that holistic rating is valuable. I'd think it would be hard to isolate the impact of usage only separate from these other impacts but maybe seeing the data from both approaches would be helpful.
I agree with jmcfaul13 that coaching impact is indeed a variable that should be recognized and perhaps included in a more sophisticated model.
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greyberger
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:30 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
I'd think it would be hard to isolate the impact of usage only separate from these other impacts but maybe seeing the data from both approaches would be helpful.
Indeed and the raw 'team eFG with player on/off-court', available by season at 82games, is yet another look at the same thing. I sorta expected Silver to go that route - comparing the Nuggets with Anthony to lineups without him.
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Crow
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:44 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
It probably would be helpful to compare the eFG% Adjusted Factor for a player with the raw team eFG%s with player on/off-court (for the covered years) to perhaps try to spot outliers where the error in the Adjusted Factor may be high. But there are real reasons why the 2 values will vary and the Adjusted Factor is an attempt to boil it down and sort it out.
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Jeff Fogle
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:15 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I know article writers generally don't write the headlines for major publications like this. I do think it's odd to call Anthony "the ultimate team player" when:
"he’s accumulated 3.1 assists per 36 minutes played, considerably less than that of other high-volume scorers like Kobe Bryant (4.6 assists per 36 minutes) or LeBron James (6.2)."
and...
"One would also need to think about Anthony’s defense and rebounding, where he is no standout."
He prefers not to pass the ball to his teammates, and they have to cover for his weaknesses defensively and on the boards. One could argue that's the opposite of being the ultimate team player, or even a normal team player.
I get that his teammates end up shooting more efficiently. It's not like those shots are coming off assists from Carmelo though. He's not a big assist guy. Is he just missing shots they would have missed anyway?
"although he scores a lot of points, he does not do so especially efficiently."
Will be fun to see what everyone thinks about both sides of this Silver/Berri debate...
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bchaikin
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:24 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
is this really a "with or without carmelo anthony" analysis, or is it more of a "played on denver or did not play on denver " analysis?...
look at the large increases in shooting by nene hilario and j.r. smith, supposedly due to carmelo anthony. the "without anthony" minutes for nene came when he was 20 years old, the rest when he was 21-28. the "without anthony" minutes for j.r. smith came when he was the ages of 19/20, the rest the ages of 21-25. most players that come into the league that young almost always shoot better from the ages of about 22/23 to 27/28 than 22/23 and younger, regardless of who their teammates are...
also chris anderson was with denver in 03-04, and 08-09 to 10-11, both times when carmelo anthony was on denver. he shot poorly in 03-04 but excellent in 08-09 and 09-10...
lastly from 03-04 to 08-09 (6 years), lebron james played more minutes than any player in the league and averaged playing 3190 minutes a season for the cavaliers. he was on the floor for 19142 of 23811 possible minutes, i.e. he was on the floor 80% of the time the team played. during these 6 years, he threw for 3159 assists, more than all but 3 players (steve nash, jason kidd, and andre miller). he was a far better passer than carmelo anthony, and i'm guessing he also drew as many double teams as anthony did...
yet from 03-04 to 08-09, a full 6 years, and not including the shooting of lebron james, the rest of the cavaliers as a team shot an eFG% (2s and 3s) of just 47.5%, the 2nd lowest in the league those 6 years among all teams (only the clippers were worse)...
would that then mean he was less of a team player than carmelo anthony was during this same time?...
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BobboFitos
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:14 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
How would you know what is affecting what?
I don't know! I imagine there is some sort of trade off both ways though.
Quote:
Does a player's raised Usg% cause his teammates' TS% to rise?
Or does a team's low TS% cause the player to raise his Usg%?
Again, probably some sort of balancing act. It can't be a hard fast number, but it likely is within a reasonable range w/ low-ish error.
On a personal level, when I play basketball w/ someone who gobbles up most of the shots, I tend to shoot far less often, and my baskets tends to be garbage type putbacks and maybe a wide open 3. That said, they also are taking away some shots I would have created at the rim for myself anyway, or successful post ups/getting fouled/etc... And even with someone shooting all the time, it's not like I still never take a bad shot. Again, all trade offs.
jmcfaul13 wrote:
Didn't George Karl start coaching the team the same year Carmelo came into the league? Perhaps it is his system that raises a player's TS% and not Carmelo.
This certainly could be the case, but couldn't we look at other datapoints (ie. the Sonics) since Karl has coached a lot, in order to see his overall impact at the team level? This seems to be opening a larger can of problems/questions though, in terms of raw coaching impact.
Crow wrote:
Mike G's important question: "How would you know what is affecting what?"
Not sure of the specific split of what actions are affecting teammates but there is another
estimate that can be a stepping stone in thinking about the "who" is having impact.
Joe Sill's multi-season (thru 08-09), factor level Adjusted +/= splits had Anthony at the 95th
(100 being best) percentile for team level eFG% impact. It would seem the positive impact
would "have to" come from helping teammate shooting as his own shooting is weak.
That is, if you find the method to be valid or reasonably useful despite estimated error. Note
that this is measuring the impact of Anthony's field shooting, not scoring, as getting free
throws is its own factor.
I remember JSill's work and found it to be the best usage of APM (RAPM, specifically) I've seen. I wish it was still public.
Quote:
You still have to separate the direct impact of a player's own shooting from the other stuff he
does that might affect his teammates (if that is your goal) but you could find the statistical +/-
impact of his own shooting and deduct it from his total "eFG% impact" converted to point
value.
In case it is of interest or helps the discussion at all, here was the top 5% on this (full) eFG%
impact factor of Adjusted +/- metric from highest estimate on down:
[LOADS OF PLAYERS, TRUNCATED DUE TO SIZE]
I haven't separated what I have in the past called the "local" impact of a player (in this case
his own shooting) from his "global" impact on teammate shooting for these guys, but it could
be done into at least those two piles.
I like how you put that. Clearly when you're 1 of 5 on the court, you're responsible for your own shots - the local side. The other 4 of the 5 are the global. The result is the net production of the 5 man unit. We have fairly reliable stats about how productive the individual/local man is of the 5... but the other 4, and how responsible the 1 is for the 5, is far more error prone. I would imagine most people trust the numbers that place those with great local stats and yet think little of the ones relying fully on global data. From the list of players, that would be Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Barbosa, and Raja Bell. (Raja Bell, wtf???)
Quote:
The high player usage / teammate TS% or offensive efficiency check that Rob suggests
would be worth looking at. With the Adjusted +/- factor level information you can estimate a
player's overall impact found in his own shooting but also resulting from his spacing, moving.
passing, usage and attention drawing and that holistic rating is valuable. I'd think it would be
hard to isolate the impact of usage only separate from these other impacts but maybe seeing the
data from both approaches would be helpful.
I agree with jmcfaul13 that coaching impact is indeed a variable that should be recognized and
perhaps included in a more sophisticated model.
I think coaching impact is something that hasn't really been analyzed too well so far... Certainly it should be recognized.
Jeff Fogle wrote:
I know article writers generally don't write the headlines for major publications like this. I do think it's odd to call Anthony "the ultimate team player" when:
"he’s accumulated 3.1 assists per 36 minutes played, considerably less than that of other high-volume scorers like Kobe Bryant (4.6 assists per 36 minutes) or LeBron James (6.2)."
and...
"One would also need to think about Anthony’s defense and rebounding, where he is no standout."
He prefers not to pass the ball to his teammates, and they have to cover for his weaknesses defensively and on the boards. One could argue that's the opposite of being the ultimate team player, or even a normal team player.
Yeah, it's a strange article headline because the normal traits of "team player" (defense and passing, I imagine) aren't exactly strengths of Carmelo.
Quote:
I get that his teammates end up shooting more efficiently. It's not like those shots are coming off assists from Carmelo though. He's not a big assist guy. Is he just missing shots they would have missed anyway?
One small explanation is he creates offensive rebound opportunities which leads to a greater expected team ORtg (off the rebound) that they otherwise wouldn't have had... But this only explains a small % of overall points + Denver hasn't been a great offense because of their ORB%. They've done it largely through low turnovers and high foul rates.
Quote:
"although he scores a lot of points, he does not do so especially efficiently."
Will be fun to see what everyone thinks about both sides of this Silver/Berri debate...
I can't really wrap my head around Carmelo being worth a mere "6" wins, as WP would have us believe. Again, the number is probably somewhere in the middle, between that number and the 6+~15 (which is what Nate says is possible)... the thing is that's a huge difference, so it sorta matters which is more accurate!
bchaikin wrote:
is this really a "with or without carmelo anthony" analysis, or is it more of a "played on denver or did not play on denver " analysis?...
I'm not sure, the article didn't really reveal how he arranged his stats. If it is truly on/off Denver, all your criticisms are very well deserved and somewhat nullifies the conclusion.
Quote:
look at the large increases in shooting by nene hilario and j.r. smith, supposedly due to carmelo anthony. the "without anthony" minutes for nene came when he was 20 years old, the rest when he was 21-28. the "without anthony" minutes for j.r. smith came when he was the ages of 19/20, the rest the ages of 21-25. most players that come into the league that young almost always shoot better from the ages of about 22/23 to 27/28 than 22/23 and younger, regardless of who their teammates are...
also chris anderson was with denver in 03-04, and 08-09 to 10-11, both times when carmelo anthony was on denver. he shot poorly in 03-04 but excellent in 08-09 and 09-10...
Right, we could probably do the same thing about Nene (who played with Melo for that same block) and show "wow, he increases his teammates TS by X% too!" [all the while maintaining a stellar individual ORtg!] and thus give HIM more credit for the Nuggets offensive success. Etc etc. This probably needs more work/investigation.
Quote:
lastly from 03-04 to 08-09 (6 years), lebron james played more minutes than any player in the league and averaged playing 3190 minutes a season for the cavaliers. he was on the floor for 19142 of 23811 possible minutes, i.e. he was on the floor 80% of the time the team played. during these 6 years, he threw for 3159 assists, more than all but 3 players (steve nash, jason kidd, and andre miller). he was a far better passer than carmelo anthony, and i'm guessing he also drew as many double teams as anthony did...
yet from 03-04 to 08-09, a full 6 years, and not including the shooting of lebron james, the rest of the cavaliers as a team shot an eFG% (2s and 3s) of just 47.5%, the 2nd lowest in the league those 6 years among all teams (only the clippers were worse)...
would that then mean he was less of a team player than carmelo anthony was during this same time?...
well of course, LBJ is all about the $tat$, didn't you know?
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back2newbelf
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:23 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
If what was said in the article was true Anthony should show up pretty good in (multiyear, regularized) offense APM. While his offensive multiyear RAPM is positive it's worlds behind Billups', with J.R Smiths' coming in second for Denver. Lots of high volume shooters, even players that shoot really bad %s can look very good in this metric but he doesn't (at least not by much).
Meanwhile, Landry Fields is 5th in one-year-offensive RAPM
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greyberger
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:50 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
Meanwhile, Landry Fields is 5th in one-year-offensive RAPM
But that's only 1200 minutes or so... certainly less weight than anything you're doing with 4000+ minutes of recent Anthony performance.
Melo from '07-'09 looks very average in APM, from '08-'10 better but still third on his team. He doesn't have a consistent raw impact on team eFG, but you can find high-usage low-ast% players who do (Dirk, Durant).
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Crow
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:02 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Generally I think a with /without article should be based on player data with / without Anthony actually on the court when they are. You can argue the other side... sort of... but I think the main analysis should a truly with / without.
From the article:
"In fact, this is true of almost every Nugget who has played a sufficient number of minutes with Anthony. I identified 16 players who have accumulated least 2,000 minutes with the
Nuggets in years when Anthony was on the team, and have also played at least 2,000 minutes in the N.B.A. without Anthony (either because they were playing for a different team or because they were on the Nuggets before Anthony’s rookie season). All but 2 of the players – Marcus Camby and Voshon Lenard – posted a higher TS% playing with Anthony than without him, and on average, he improved his teammates’ TS% by 3.8 points (to 55.0 percent from 51.2 percent).
This appears to be simply seasonal data, team based and not with / without Anthony actually on the court when they are.
That makes this data less compelling but the eFG% Adjusted factor data for Anthony probably helps shore it up. It does for me at least.
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Kevin Pelton
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:18 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Crow wrote:
Joe Sill's multi-season (thru 08-09), factor level Adjusted +/= splits had Anthony at the 95th (100 being best) percentile for team level eFG% impact. It would seem the positive impact would "have to" come from helping teammate shooting as his own shooting is weak.
Did you save this from when it was posted? Curiosity about Sill's numbers was one of my first responses to Silver's numbers.
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EvanZ
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:50 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
This is really interesting stuff. It's motivated me to look further into a question that many Warriors fans have had lately, which is whether Curry and Ellis play better with each other, and whether the team does better with one or the other or both.
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Crow
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:57 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Kevin Pelton wrote:
Crow wrote:
Joe Sill's multi-season (thru 08-09), factor level Adjusted +/= splits had Anthony at the 95th (100 being best) percentile for team level eFG% impact. It would seem the positive impact would "have to" come from helping teammate shooting as his own shooting is weak.
Did you save this from when it was posted? Curiosity about Sill's numbers was one of my first responses to Silver's numbers.
Yes I saved many of the pages but not all of them. I still use them, will cite them. Not sure about sharing the files. I might. I'd listen to Joe if he wanted to speak about that. I don't see or recall seeing any copyright stamp on them.
BobboFitos
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 12:56 pm Post subject: Nate Silver Article Reply with quote
http://tinyurl.com/4swblez
Solid article. Had a question though - the main contention was Melo's effect of raising his teammates' TS% completely overpowers his own TS%. This is basically OAPM attributed to a marketable 4 factor (well, actually 2, both eFG and FT/FG, bc it uses TS) but I was wondering:
What the effect of raw usage is on average (for your teammates, not yourself)? It makes sense that ANY high volume shooter raises the TS of his teammates, since they're taking the marginal shots away from teammates that otherwise would take them; it's not that they're creating inherently easier looks. (If that was the case, it would be reflected in their apg tallys) Has anyone run a regression on usage vs teammates' TS? Is Carmelo especially special in this regard, or is he simply a 30%+ usage guy who is doing what most 30% usage guys do.
Basically, the old usage vs efficiency argument, but instead of looking at the individual's skill curve, rather the skill curve of the average teammate. (Seems like the sample is much larger other than individual players increasing or decreasing their shot load)
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Mike G
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:23 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
How would you know what is affecting what?
Does a player's raised Usg% cause his teammates' TS% to rise?
Or does a team's low TS% cause the player to raise his Usg%?
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jmcfaul13
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:32 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Didn't George Karl start coaching the team the same year Carmelo came into the league? Perhaps it is his system that raises a player's TS% and not Carmelo.
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Crow
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:03 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G's important question: "How would you know what is affecting what?"
Not sure of the specific split of what actions are affecting teammates but there is another estimate that can be a stepping stone in thinking about the "who" is having impact.
Joe Sill's multi-season (thru 08-09), factor level Adjusted +/= splits had Anthony at the 95th (100 being best) percentile for team level eFG% impact. It would seem the positive impact would "have to" come from helping teammate shooting as his own shooting is weak.
That is, if you find the method to be valid or reasonably useful despite estimated error. Note that this is measuring the impact of Anthony's field shooting, not scoring, as getting free throws is its own factor.
You still have to separate the direct impact of a player's own shooting from the other stuff he does that might affect his teammates (if that is your goal) but you could find the statistical +/- impact of his own shooting and deduct it from his total "eFG% impact" converted to point value.
In case it is of interest or helps the discussion at all, here was the top 5% on this (full) eFG% impact factor of Adjusted +/- metric from highest estimate on down:
Steve Nash
Rashard Lewis
Ray Allen
Kobe Bryant
LeBron James
Hedo Turkoglu
Dwight Howard
Dwyane Wade
Deron Williams
Tim Duncan
Pau Gasol
Dirk Nowitzki
Leandro Barbosa
Kevin Garnett
Shaquille O'Neal
Chris Paul
Vince Carter
Carmelo Anthony
Raja Bell
I haven't separated what I have in the past called the "local" impact of a player (in this case his own shooting) from his "global" impact on teammate shooting for these guys, but it could be done into at least those two piles.
Separating out what action exactly are having positive impact on teammates and adding positive to the second pile is beyond the intent or reach of this metric as implemented. Probably would have to count more uncounted things and for every game to go further with this approach. May instead have to rely on more limited counting and the eye and judgment.
The high player usage / teammate TS% or offensive efficiency check that Rob suggests would be worth looking at. With the Adjusted +/- factor level information you can estimate a player's overall impact found in his own shooting but also resulting from his spacing, moving. passing, usage and attention drawing and that holistic rating is valuable. I'd think it would be hard to isolate the impact of usage only separate from these other impacts but maybe seeing the data from both approaches would be helpful.
I agree with jmcfaul13 that coaching impact is indeed a variable that should be recognized and perhaps included in a more sophisticated model.
Last edited by Crow on Sat Jan 15, 2011 11:34 pm; edited 10 times in total
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greyberger
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:30 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
I'd think it would be hard to isolate the impact of usage only separate from these other impacts but maybe seeing the data from both approaches would be helpful.
Indeed and the raw 'team eFG with player on/off-court', available by season at 82games, is yet another look at the same thing. I sorta expected Silver to go that route - comparing the Nuggets with Anthony to lineups without him.
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Crow
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 2:44 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
It probably would be helpful to compare the eFG% Adjusted Factor for a player with the raw team eFG%s with player on/off-court (for the covered years) to perhaps try to spot outliers where the error in the Adjusted Factor may be high. But there are real reasons why the 2 values will vary and the Adjusted Factor is an attempt to boil it down and sort it out.
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Jeff Fogle
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:15 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I know article writers generally don't write the headlines for major publications like this. I do think it's odd to call Anthony "the ultimate team player" when:
"he’s accumulated 3.1 assists per 36 minutes played, considerably less than that of other high-volume scorers like Kobe Bryant (4.6 assists per 36 minutes) or LeBron James (6.2)."
and...
"One would also need to think about Anthony’s defense and rebounding, where he is no standout."
He prefers not to pass the ball to his teammates, and they have to cover for his weaknesses defensively and on the boards. One could argue that's the opposite of being the ultimate team player, or even a normal team player.
I get that his teammates end up shooting more efficiently. It's not like those shots are coming off assists from Carmelo though. He's not a big assist guy. Is he just missing shots they would have missed anyway?
"although he scores a lot of points, he does not do so especially efficiently."
Will be fun to see what everyone thinks about both sides of this Silver/Berri debate...
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bchaikin
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 3:24 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
is this really a "with or without carmelo anthony" analysis, or is it more of a "played on denver or did not play on denver " analysis?...
look at the large increases in shooting by nene hilario and j.r. smith, supposedly due to carmelo anthony. the "without anthony" minutes for nene came when he was 20 years old, the rest when he was 21-28. the "without anthony" minutes for j.r. smith came when he was the ages of 19/20, the rest the ages of 21-25. most players that come into the league that young almost always shoot better from the ages of about 22/23 to 27/28 than 22/23 and younger, regardless of who their teammates are...
also chris anderson was with denver in 03-04, and 08-09 to 10-11, both times when carmelo anthony was on denver. he shot poorly in 03-04 but excellent in 08-09 and 09-10...
lastly from 03-04 to 08-09 (6 years), lebron james played more minutes than any player in the league and averaged playing 3190 minutes a season for the cavaliers. he was on the floor for 19142 of 23811 possible minutes, i.e. he was on the floor 80% of the time the team played. during these 6 years, he threw for 3159 assists, more than all but 3 players (steve nash, jason kidd, and andre miller). he was a far better passer than carmelo anthony, and i'm guessing he also drew as many double teams as anthony did...
yet from 03-04 to 08-09, a full 6 years, and not including the shooting of lebron james, the rest of the cavaliers as a team shot an eFG% (2s and 3s) of just 47.5%, the 2nd lowest in the league those 6 years among all teams (only the clippers were worse)...
would that then mean he was less of a team player than carmelo anthony was during this same time?...
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BobboFitos
Joined: 21 Feb 2009
Posts: 200
Location: Cambridge, MA
PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:14 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
How would you know what is affecting what?
I don't know! I imagine there is some sort of trade off both ways though.
Quote:
Does a player's raised Usg% cause his teammates' TS% to rise?
Or does a team's low TS% cause the player to raise his Usg%?
Again, probably some sort of balancing act. It can't be a hard fast number, but it likely is within a reasonable range w/ low-ish error.
On a personal level, when I play basketball w/ someone who gobbles up most of the shots, I tend to shoot far less often, and my baskets tends to be garbage type putbacks and maybe a wide open 3. That said, they also are taking away some shots I would have created at the rim for myself anyway, or successful post ups/getting fouled/etc... And even with someone shooting all the time, it's not like I still never take a bad shot. Again, all trade offs.
jmcfaul13 wrote:
Didn't George Karl start coaching the team the same year Carmelo came into the league? Perhaps it is his system that raises a player's TS% and not Carmelo.
This certainly could be the case, but couldn't we look at other datapoints (ie. the Sonics) since Karl has coached a lot, in order to see his overall impact at the team level? This seems to be opening a larger can of problems/questions though, in terms of raw coaching impact.
Crow wrote:
Mike G's important question: "How would you know what is affecting what?"
Not sure of the specific split of what actions are affecting teammates but there is another
estimate that can be a stepping stone in thinking about the "who" is having impact.
Joe Sill's multi-season (thru 08-09), factor level Adjusted +/= splits had Anthony at the 95th
(100 being best) percentile for team level eFG% impact. It would seem the positive impact
would "have to" come from helping teammate shooting as his own shooting is weak.
That is, if you find the method to be valid or reasonably useful despite estimated error. Note
that this is measuring the impact of Anthony's field shooting, not scoring, as getting free
throws is its own factor.
I remember JSill's work and found it to be the best usage of APM (RAPM, specifically) I've seen. I wish it was still public.
Quote:
You still have to separate the direct impact of a player's own shooting from the other stuff he
does that might affect his teammates (if that is your goal) but you could find the statistical +/-
impact of his own shooting and deduct it from his total "eFG% impact" converted to point
value.
In case it is of interest or helps the discussion at all, here was the top 5% on this (full) eFG%
impact factor of Adjusted +/- metric from highest estimate on down:
[LOADS OF PLAYERS, TRUNCATED DUE TO SIZE]
I haven't separated what I have in the past called the "local" impact of a player (in this case
his own shooting) from his "global" impact on teammate shooting for these guys, but it could
be done into at least those two piles.
I like how you put that. Clearly when you're 1 of 5 on the court, you're responsible for your own shots - the local side. The other 4 of the 5 are the global. The result is the net production of the 5 man unit. We have fairly reliable stats about how productive the individual/local man is of the 5... but the other 4, and how responsible the 1 is for the 5, is far more error prone. I would imagine most people trust the numbers that place those with great local stats and yet think little of the ones relying fully on global data. From the list of players, that would be Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Barbosa, and Raja Bell. (Raja Bell, wtf???)
Quote:
The high player usage / teammate TS% or offensive efficiency check that Rob suggests
would be worth looking at. With the Adjusted +/- factor level information you can estimate a
player's overall impact found in his own shooting but also resulting from his spacing, moving.
passing, usage and attention drawing and that holistic rating is valuable. I'd think it would be
hard to isolate the impact of usage only separate from these other impacts but maybe seeing the
data from both approaches would be helpful.
I agree with jmcfaul13 that coaching impact is indeed a variable that should be recognized and
perhaps included in a more sophisticated model.
I think coaching impact is something that hasn't really been analyzed too well so far... Certainly it should be recognized.
Jeff Fogle wrote:
I know article writers generally don't write the headlines for major publications like this. I do think it's odd to call Anthony "the ultimate team player" when:
"he’s accumulated 3.1 assists per 36 minutes played, considerably less than that of other high-volume scorers like Kobe Bryant (4.6 assists per 36 minutes) or LeBron James (6.2)."
and...
"One would also need to think about Anthony’s defense and rebounding, where he is no standout."
He prefers not to pass the ball to his teammates, and they have to cover for his weaknesses defensively and on the boards. One could argue that's the opposite of being the ultimate team player, or even a normal team player.
Yeah, it's a strange article headline because the normal traits of "team player" (defense and passing, I imagine) aren't exactly strengths of Carmelo.
Quote:
I get that his teammates end up shooting more efficiently. It's not like those shots are coming off assists from Carmelo though. He's not a big assist guy. Is he just missing shots they would have missed anyway?
One small explanation is he creates offensive rebound opportunities which leads to a greater expected team ORtg (off the rebound) that they otherwise wouldn't have had... But this only explains a small % of overall points + Denver hasn't been a great offense because of their ORB%. They've done it largely through low turnovers and high foul rates.
Quote:
"although he scores a lot of points, he does not do so especially efficiently."
Will be fun to see what everyone thinks about both sides of this Silver/Berri debate...
I can't really wrap my head around Carmelo being worth a mere "6" wins, as WP would have us believe. Again, the number is probably somewhere in the middle, between that number and the 6+~15 (which is what Nate says is possible)... the thing is that's a huge difference, so it sorta matters which is more accurate!
bchaikin wrote:
is this really a "with or without carmelo anthony" analysis, or is it more of a "played on denver or did not play on denver " analysis?...
I'm not sure, the article didn't really reveal how he arranged his stats. If it is truly on/off Denver, all your criticisms are very well deserved and somewhat nullifies the conclusion.
Quote:
look at the large increases in shooting by nene hilario and j.r. smith, supposedly due to carmelo anthony. the "without anthony" minutes for nene came when he was 20 years old, the rest when he was 21-28. the "without anthony" minutes for j.r. smith came when he was the ages of 19/20, the rest the ages of 21-25. most players that come into the league that young almost always shoot better from the ages of about 22/23 to 27/28 than 22/23 and younger, regardless of who their teammates are...
also chris anderson was with denver in 03-04, and 08-09 to 10-11, both times when carmelo anthony was on denver. he shot poorly in 03-04 but excellent in 08-09 and 09-10...
Right, we could probably do the same thing about Nene (who played with Melo for that same block) and show "wow, he increases his teammates TS by X% too!" [all the while maintaining a stellar individual ORtg!] and thus give HIM more credit for the Nuggets offensive success. Etc etc. This probably needs more work/investigation.
Quote:
lastly from 03-04 to 08-09 (6 years), lebron james played more minutes than any player in the league and averaged playing 3190 minutes a season for the cavaliers. he was on the floor for 19142 of 23811 possible minutes, i.e. he was on the floor 80% of the time the team played. during these 6 years, he threw for 3159 assists, more than all but 3 players (steve nash, jason kidd, and andre miller). he was a far better passer than carmelo anthony, and i'm guessing he also drew as many double teams as anthony did...
yet from 03-04 to 08-09, a full 6 years, and not including the shooting of lebron james, the rest of the cavaliers as a team shot an eFG% (2s and 3s) of just 47.5%, the 2nd lowest in the league those 6 years among all teams (only the clippers were worse)...
would that then mean he was less of a team player than carmelo anthony was during this same time?...
well of course, LBJ is all about the $tat$, didn't you know?
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back2newbelf
Joined: 21 Jun 2005
Posts: 274
PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:23 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
If what was said in the article was true Anthony should show up pretty good in (multiyear, regularized) offense APM. While his offensive multiyear RAPM is positive it's worlds behind Billups', with J.R Smiths' coming in second for Denver. Lots of high volume shooters, even players that shoot really bad %s can look very good in this metric but he doesn't (at least not by much).
Meanwhile, Landry Fields is 5th in one-year-offensive RAPM
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greyberger
Joined: 27 Sep 2010
Posts: 51
PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:50 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
Meanwhile, Landry Fields is 5th in one-year-offensive RAPM
But that's only 1200 minutes or so... certainly less weight than anything you're doing with 4000+ minutes of recent Anthony performance.
Melo from '07-'09 looks very average in APM, from '08-'10 better but still third on his team. He doesn't have a consistent raw impact on team eFG, but you can find high-usage low-ast% players who do (Dirk, Durant).
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Crow
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 817
PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 5:02 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Generally I think a with /without article should be based on player data with / without Anthony actually on the court when they are. You can argue the other side... sort of... but I think the main analysis should a truly with / without.
From the article:
"In fact, this is true of almost every Nugget who has played a sufficient number of minutes with Anthony. I identified 16 players who have accumulated least 2,000 minutes with the
Nuggets in years when Anthony was on the team, and have also played at least 2,000 minutes in the N.B.A. without Anthony (either because they were playing for a different team or because they were on the Nuggets before Anthony’s rookie season). All but 2 of the players – Marcus Camby and Voshon Lenard – posted a higher TS% playing with Anthony than without him, and on average, he improved his teammates’ TS% by 3.8 points (to 55.0 percent from 51.2 percent).
This appears to be simply seasonal data, team based and not with / without Anthony actually on the court when they are.
That makes this data less compelling but the eFG% Adjusted factor data for Anthony probably helps shore it up. It does for me at least.
Last edited by Crow on Sat Jan 15, 2011 11:48 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Kevin Pelton
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Joined: 30 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:18 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Crow wrote:
Joe Sill's multi-season (thru 08-09), factor level Adjusted +/= splits had Anthony at the 95th (100 being best) percentile for team level eFG% impact. It would seem the positive impact would "have to" come from helping teammate shooting as his own shooting is weak.
Did you save this from when it was posted? Curiosity about Sill's numbers was one of my first responses to Silver's numbers.
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EvanZ
Joined: 22 Nov 2010
Posts: 292
PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:50 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
This is really interesting stuff. It's motivated me to look further into a question that many Warriors fans have had lately, which is whether Curry and Ellis play better with each other, and whether the team does better with one or the other or both.
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Crow
Joined: 20 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 6:57 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Kevin Pelton wrote:
Crow wrote:
Joe Sill's multi-season (thru 08-09), factor level Adjusted +/= splits had Anthony at the 95th (100 being best) percentile for team level eFG% impact. It would seem the positive impact would "have to" come from helping teammate shooting as his own shooting is weak.
Did you save this from when it was posted? Curiosity about Sill's numbers was one of my first responses to Silver's numbers.
Yes I saved many of the pages but not all of them. I still use them, will cite them. Not sure about sharing the files. I might. I'd listen to Joe if he wanted to speak about that. I don't see or recall seeing any copyright stamp on them.