Dictating Tempo (Ben F., 2005)
Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2011 5:34 pm
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Ben F.
Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 391
PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2005 10:41 pm Post subject: Dictating Tempo Reply with quote
I've often heard coaches say they want to "dictate the tempo." Many times they cite this as a defensive tactic, to throw the other team off their game. Other times it's simply a philosophy - let's do what we want to do, not what they want us to do.
In any case, this seems to be a conventional wisdom that's not totally proven. It makes sense, but does it work? And regardless of the results, how does it work in general? If a really high pace team meets a really low pace team, does the game end up somewhere in the middle? If they were to play a series, would one side win half the time? Is it easier to force a high pace than a low pace, or vice versa (or neither)?
Just a bunch of questions I had that I thought would be fun to discuss.
A possible idea I thought of to answer whether dictating tempo even matters is to look at standard deviation of a team's possessions (in other words, how variable it is, how much they were dictated to), and compare it to win percentage. Just a possibility, I'm open to anything that makes sense.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3625
Location: Hendersonville, NC
PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2005 5:09 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Not analysis, but observations from some years of watching and playing:
A coach can 'dictate' to his own team, but not 100%. The players have their preferred speed of attack and will tend to drift toward that comfort level. At the pro level, of course, compliance may approach 100%; but it's the players who have to recognize opportunity as it arises. No successful team passes up its openings.
A team may run all they want on offense, and force the other team to keep up; but they can't generally force the other team to pick up their offensive pace. They may press defensively, but at the pro level it isn't usually successful. Generally, the defense gets worn out quicker than the offense.
A slow-down team has strategies at both ends that can indeed slow down the other team's offense. Whether this is successful (i.e., sustainable) depends on a lot of things, like matchups, roster depth and versatility, outside shooting or other halfcourt strengths.
In either case, the reacting team may choose or refuse to be 'dictated to'. The players or the coach may find advantages going either way.
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Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
Posts: 402
PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2005 10:13 am Post subject: Reply with quote
These are interesting questions, but one problem with trying to solve them is that the current stat of "possessions" is very imprecise in terms of measuring pace.
The problem is that if team A walks it up and team B runs all game, they will both end up with the same number of possessions for the game. If this number is higher than A's average possessions per game, one cannot say whether A played any faster than usual, because it could just be a result of A playing the same speed as ever and B playing their same faster speed as ever. Total possessions in a game is a function of team A's pace combined with team B's pace, but these individual parts cannot be easily separated out.
The solution is to look at average time per possession rather than just possessions per game. But this stat is less readily available because it requires recording how many seconds each possession takes.
This problem is exhibited in the Nets having an average number of possessions in 02-03 (and thus according to our assumptions, an average "pace"), yet leading the league in fast break points in 02-03. Possessions does not equal offensive pace because possessions also includes defensive pace (how quickly your opponents use their possessions).
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Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
Posts: 402
PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2005 10:41 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Thinking about this a little more, another reason possessions per game is not a good proxy for offensive pace is rebounding. If two teams run just as much as each other but team A is a great offensive rebounding team and team B is lousy, team A's average time per possession will be higher (because many possessions will be prolonged by offensive boards) and thus they will appear from looking at possessions to be a slower team.
What we really need is a measure of offensive pace of team X that was something like average time from end of opponent possession to first shot of team X's possession (maybe turnovers should be factored in as well). Defensive pace would be the average time from end of team X's possession to first shot of opponent's possession.
If we had these stats then you could do a reliable study on whether one team's average offensive pace impacted their opponent's offensive pace when they played each other.
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gkrndija
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 64
PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2005 1:15 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I agree that there should be a better way to measure poessessions. For example at the end of games, teams keep fouling to get the ball back(and pad their stats). That will inflate a teams amount of poessesions. They should only use possessions up to the 2:00 mark of the 4th quarter and then measure over a 48 minute game.
Ben F.
Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 391
PostPosted: Thu Nov 03, 2005 10:41 pm Post subject: Dictating Tempo Reply with quote
I've often heard coaches say they want to "dictate the tempo." Many times they cite this as a defensive tactic, to throw the other team off their game. Other times it's simply a philosophy - let's do what we want to do, not what they want us to do.
In any case, this seems to be a conventional wisdom that's not totally proven. It makes sense, but does it work? And regardless of the results, how does it work in general? If a really high pace team meets a really low pace team, does the game end up somewhere in the middle? If they were to play a series, would one side win half the time? Is it easier to force a high pace than a low pace, or vice versa (or neither)?
Just a bunch of questions I had that I thought would be fun to discuss.
A possible idea I thought of to answer whether dictating tempo even matters is to look at standard deviation of a team's possessions (in other words, how variable it is, how much they were dictated to), and compare it to win percentage. Just a possibility, I'm open to anything that makes sense.
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Mike G
Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3625
Location: Hendersonville, NC
PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2005 5:09 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Not analysis, but observations from some years of watching and playing:
A coach can 'dictate' to his own team, but not 100%. The players have their preferred speed of attack and will tend to drift toward that comfort level. At the pro level, of course, compliance may approach 100%; but it's the players who have to recognize opportunity as it arises. No successful team passes up its openings.
A team may run all they want on offense, and force the other team to keep up; but they can't generally force the other team to pick up their offensive pace. They may press defensively, but at the pro level it isn't usually successful. Generally, the defense gets worn out quicker than the offense.
A slow-down team has strategies at both ends that can indeed slow down the other team's offense. Whether this is successful (i.e., sustainable) depends on a lot of things, like matchups, roster depth and versatility, outside shooting or other halfcourt strengths.
In either case, the reacting team may choose or refuse to be 'dictated to'. The players or the coach may find advantages going either way.
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View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
Posts: 402
PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2005 10:13 am Post subject: Reply with quote
These are interesting questions, but one problem with trying to solve them is that the current stat of "possessions" is very imprecise in terms of measuring pace.
The problem is that if team A walks it up and team B runs all game, they will both end up with the same number of possessions for the game. If this number is higher than A's average possessions per game, one cannot say whether A played any faster than usual, because it could just be a result of A playing the same speed as ever and B playing their same faster speed as ever. Total possessions in a game is a function of team A's pace combined with team B's pace, but these individual parts cannot be easily separated out.
The solution is to look at average time per possession rather than just possessions per game. But this stat is less readily available because it requires recording how many seconds each possession takes.
This problem is exhibited in the Nets having an average number of possessions in 02-03 (and thus according to our assumptions, an average "pace"), yet leading the league in fast break points in 02-03. Possessions does not equal offensive pace because possessions also includes defensive pace (how quickly your opponents use their possessions).
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View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Eli W
Joined: 01 Feb 2005
Posts: 402
PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2005 10:41 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Thinking about this a little more, another reason possessions per game is not a good proxy for offensive pace is rebounding. If two teams run just as much as each other but team A is a great offensive rebounding team and team B is lousy, team A's average time per possession will be higher (because many possessions will be prolonged by offensive boards) and thus they will appear from looking at possessions to be a slower team.
What we really need is a measure of offensive pace of team X that was something like average time from end of opponent possession to first shot of team X's possession (maybe turnovers should be factored in as well). Defensive pace would be the average time from end of team X's possession to first shot of opponent's possession.
If we had these stats then you could do a reliable study on whether one team's average offensive pace impacted their opponent's offensive pace when they played each other.
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View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
gkrndija
Joined: 20 Feb 2005
Posts: 64
PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2005 1:15 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I agree that there should be a better way to measure poessessions. For example at the end of games, teams keep fouling to get the ball back(and pad their stats). That will inflate a teams amount of poessesions. They should only use possessions up to the 2:00 mark of the 4th quarter and then measure over a 48 minute game.