Page 1 of 1
2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder
Posted: Tue May 17, 2011 3:51 pm
by Mike G
Here's a preview ranking players by relative impact (eWins per game) based on the first 2 rounds
Code: Select all
eW/G rounds 1-2 tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.207 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 10 38 .601 31.8 9.2 3.1 2.1 .6 2.6 .5 2.61
.176 Durant,Kevin Okl 12 42 .579 26.7 6.9 2.3 2.6 .7 1.7 .9 2.09
.167 Westbrook,Russel Okl 12 37 .499 24.5 5.7 8.8 3.4 1.3 4.5 .4 2.25
.121 Terry,Jason Dal 10 32 .642 26.0 2.5 4.8 1.7 1.2 1.6 .2 1.80
.105 Kidd,Jason Dal 10 34 .551 12.9 5.3 9.7 2.4 1.8 2.7 .5 1.50
.092 Harden,James Okl 12 31 .602 16.1 6.0 4.9 3.1 1.4 1.9 1.1 1.47
.061 Marion,Shawn Dal 10 31 .471 11.6 8.7 3.4 2.6 1.0 2.0 .9 .94
.059 Ibaka,Serge Okl 12 29 .507 11.0 10.2 .4 5.0 .3 1.6 4.6 1.01
.046 Chandler,Tyson Dal 10 30 .629 9.7 12.4 .4 4.1 .2 .9 .9 .75
.042 Barea,JJ Dal 10 18 .461 17.0 2.7 9.0 2.3 .2 2.1 .0 1.13
eW/G rounds 1-2 tm G mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.034 Maynor,Eric Okl 12 13 .483 14.4 3.8 8.4 2.0 1.8 2.7 .0 1.32
.031 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 10 24 .611 16.2 3.4 .4 2.0 1.0 .3 .1 .61
.025 Collison,Nick Okl 12 23 .612 9.0 8.0 1.1 4.9 1.1 .8 1.0 .55
.013 Brewer,Corey Dal 3 4 .500 18.4 2.6 3.3 4.8 7.2 2.4 .0 1.34
.010 Haywood,Brendan Dal 10 17 .467 5.2 12.2 .8 5.5 .2 2.2 2.4 .27
.004 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 12 20 .489 7.4 5.9 1.7 2.2 1.4 2.0 .3 .09
.002 Cook,Daequan Okl 12 12 .507 9.7 6.2 .3 2.9 .7 1.7 .0 .07
.002 Mohammed,Nazr Okl 12 12 .407 6.5 7.4 .0 6.6 1.0 1.2 1.5 .08
-.001 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 10 13 .487 9.5 2.3 3.7 5.0 .9 2.1 .3 -.03
-.007 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 12 29 .454 5.1 8.7 .8 5.0 .3 2.0 .9 -.12
Dallas players' eW/G sum to .635 and Okl to .553; so something's seriously got to give. Dirk, Terry, and Barea?
Scaled to 1 eW total per game, its Dal .53 - .47 Okl . Mavs in 7.
Re: 2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder
Posted: Tue May 17, 2011 7:56 pm
by Crow
I noticed EZPM, WinShares, Wins Produced and traditional Adjusted +/- are all much more favorable to Nick Collison in the playoffs than eW/G.
Re: 2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder
Posted: Tue May 17, 2011 10:03 pm
by Mike G
I noticed EZPM Evan said it was Collison and Harden carrying the Thunder.
In the last series, I estimate just .31 of Collison's points unassisted. This may be low, as he seemed to get several putbacks.
Also estimate just 50% of his opponents being starters. If he'd started 7 games, played the same minutes with the same stats, his e480 jumps from .66 to .78 . This is well in the range of above-average backup player, which he is.
Some of those stats love guys with high TS% and low TO, even if they almost never touch the ball. Collison works well here because the Thunder always have 2-3 very creative players on the floor.
Thanks to the Memphis series, most stats seem to say his playoffs are better than his regular season, so far.
Code: Select all
Collison e480 PER ws48
Reg. Sea. .22 10.8 .113
Playoffs .55 13.5 .149
eWins says he's gone from marginal to decent. PER says replacement level to more than decent. WS from good to nearly great.
Re: 2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder
Posted: Wed May 18, 2011 12:58 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 1 , Thunder 0
score 121 - 112
Pythagorean win distribution : .74 - .26
eWins .62 - .38
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.35 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 41 .889 57.0 6.7 3.5 2.7 .0 1.8 3.6 4.15
.24 Durant,Kevin Okl 42 .727 37.7 9.4 4.0 2.6 .9 2.6 1.7 2.72
.10 Barea,Jose_Juan Dal 16 .778 52.6 7.6 2.6 .0 .0 4.1 .0 3.10
.07 Terry,Jason Dal 33 .667 23.8 1.3 2.8 4.2 .0 1.1 1.1 1.02
.07 Marion,Shawn Dal 27 .524 13.7 11.7 5.5 8.1 1.3 2.7 1.3 1.17
.06 Kidd,Jason Dal 35 .500 2.8 3.9 15.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 .0 .79
.05 Ibaka,Serge Okl 31 .680 14.8 9.4 .0 5.9 1.2 .0 .0 .74
.03 Harden,James Okl 36 .632 9.6 2.6 4.3 3.9 1.0 .0 1.0 .45
.03 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 28 .700 8.0 8.7 2.7 2.6 1.3 .0 .0 .54
.03 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 19 1.500 17.4 2.5 3.9 7.5 3.8 1.9 .0 .76
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.02 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .417 15.4 3.9 3.2 1.9 1.0 3.9 .0 .29
.02 Chandler,Tyson Dal 25 .500 3.2 14.4 .0 5.8 .0 1.4 2.9 .40
.00 Cook,Daequan Okl 9 .750 16.2 .0 .0 3.4 .0 .0 .0 .12
.00 Mohammed,Nazr Okl 5 .000 .0 23.6 .0 .0 .0 5.9 .0 .02
.00 Brewer,Corey Dal 5 .500 11.8 .0 .0 5.9 5.9 5.9 .0 -.44
-.01 Maynor,Eric Okl 10 .000 .0 8.3 6.7 6.2 .0 3.1 .0 -.25
-.01 Collison,Nick Okl 17 .500 6.9 12.9 2.1 7.7 .0 5.8 .0 -.24
-.01 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 21 .188 1.6 4.0 2.3 .0 1.6 .0 .0 -.20
-.01 Robinson,Nate Okl 6 .000 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 .0 -.96
-.02 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 14 .375 4.2 .0 .0 10.0 2.5 .0 .0 -.68
-.02 Haywood,Brendan Dal 24 .750 3.6 5.3 .0 4.2 .0 .0 .0 -.43
Effective shooting% Dal .665 - .599 Okl
Reb Dal 35 - 33 Okl
Re: 2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder
Posted: Fri May 20, 2011 7:05 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 1 , Thunder 1
avg score Dal 110.5 - 109 Okl
Pythagorean Dal 1.09 - .91 Okl
eWins 1.05 - .95
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.50 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 41 .786 42.4 6.0 3.9 2.3 .0 2.3 1.8 2.95
.33 Durant,Kevin Okl 43 .615 27.5 5.8 4.4 3.0 .8 2.5 1.3 1.85
.22 Harden,James Okl 34 .778 19.8 5.8 4.6 3.1 1.5 .0 .5 1.57
.19 Kidd,Jason Dal 36 .571 8.1 5.0 11.1 2.1 4.1 2.1 .0 1.30
.19 Barea,Jose_Juan Dal 16 .744 39.3 7.6 6.0 1.0 .0 2.1 .0 2.88
.11 Chandler,Tyson Dal 32 .563 9.3 14.7 .7 3.5 .0 1.2 1.2 .82
.10 Westbrook,Russel Okl 33 .463 19.0 4.2 4.8 1.7 .6 4.5 .0 .75
.10 Marion,Shawn Dal 26 .408 11.1 13.1 2.7 5.8 .7 2.2 .7 .91
.07 Ibaka,Serge Okl 30 .657 13.8 9.4 .0 5.7 .6 1.3 .0 .58
.07 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 19 .833 11.3 7.4 2.3 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 .89
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.05 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 26 .786 9.1 8.1 3.3 4.3 .7 2.2 .7 .47
.04 Collison,Nick Okl 22 .625 8.3 11.8 2.7 7.9 .8 3.9 1.6 .47
.04 Maynor,Eric Okl 15 .565 13.6 5.6 3.9 3.3 .0 1.1 .0 .65
.04 Cook,Daequan Okl 13 1.000 21.5 1.7 .0 2.6 .0 .0 .0 .70
.03 Terry,Jason Dal 31 .571 16.9 .7 2.0 4.5 .0 2.2 .6 .26
-.01 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 20 .393 6.5 3.1 1.0 .0 1.7 1.7 .8 -.07
-.01 Haywood,Brendan Dal 16 .833 5.5 5.1 .0 7.3 .0 .0 1.0 -.22
-.05 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 21 .364 4.5 1.1 .0 7.2 1.8 .9 .0 -.60
Eff% Okl .618 - .604 Dal
Reb/G Okl 36.5 - 35 Dal
TO Okl 13.5 - 12 Dal
Re: 2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder
Posted: Mon May 23, 2011 12:31 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 2 , Thunder 1
avg score 104.7 - 101.7
Pythagorean 1.79 - 1.21
eWins 1.64 - 1.36
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.58 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 39 .664 36.2 5.4 3.2 1.9 .0 3.7 1.2 2.37
.55 Durant,Kevin Okl 44 .553 23.8 7.5 4.3 2.7 1.1 1.9 1.4 2.01
.37 Kidd,Jason Dal 36 .558 10.4 5.5 10.3 2.4 4.1 2.0 .0 1.65
.27 Barea,Jose_Juan Dal 15 .679 33.6 6.9 7.7 4.5 .0 2.2 .0 2.85
.24 Harden,James Okl 35 .627 13.8 7.2 3.4 2.7 1.4 .7 .3 1.13
.22 Westbrook,Russel Okl 36 .500 24.1 3.2 4.2 2.7 1.0 5.1 .0 .99
.21 Chandler,Tyson Dal 33 .619 8.9 15.4 .4 3.7 .7 .7 1.1 1.01
.19 Marion,Shawn Dal 30 .507 13.8 9.1 2.0 5.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.02
.13 Collison,Nick Okl 22 .760 12.0 11.0 2.3 6.7 1.6 2.6 2.1 .95
.12 Terry,Jason Dal 31 .523 16.4 0.9 4.0 3.8 .8 1.5 .4 .62
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.11 Ibaka,Serge Okl 28 .542 11.4 10.1 .0 4.0 .4 .9 1.3 .66
.09 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 19 .778 10.1 7.9 1.5 3.3 2.7 1.3 .7 .73
.02 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 27 .682 7.4 7.5 2.0 3.2 .5 2.3 1.4 .12
.02 Maynor,Eric Okl 12 .520 11.8 4.5 3.2 2.9 .0 1.9 .0 .26
.01 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 19 .429 8.5 4.3 1.5 .6 1.2 1.8 .6 .06
-.02 Cook,Daequan Okl 13 .778 11.3 1.0 .0 4.4 .0 .0 .0 -.22
-.03 Haywood,Brendan Dal 14 .529 5.7 5.7 .0 6.5 .0 .8 1.6 -.34
-.07 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 21 .471 6.6 .7 .0 5.9 1.8 .6 .0 -.55
effective shooting% Dal .573 - .568 Okl
rebounds per game Okl 39.3 - 35.7 Dal
turnovers Okl 13.7 - 12.0 Dal
Re: 2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder
Posted: Tue May 24, 2011 12:49 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 3 , Thunder 1
avg score 106.5 - 102.5
Pythagorean 2.50 - 1.50
eWins 2.25 - 1.75
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.93 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 41 .682 38.6 5.3 3.1 1.8 .0 3.6 .9 2.75
.73 Durant,Kevin Okl 45 .549 23.7 8.9 3.7 2.5 .8 3.3 1.2 1.94
.59 Kidd,Jason Dal 37 .622 12.8 5.5 9.1 2.0 4.0 2.2 .0 1.89
.27 Harden,James Okl 32 .620 13.9 7.7 2.9 3.8 1.4 1.6 .3 1.02
.26 Chandler,Tyson Dal 34 .608 8.0 14.0 .3 3.8 1.1 .5 .8 .93
.25 Barea,Jose_Juan Dal 16 .581 22.9 5.8 5.6 3.0 .5 1.5 .0 1.95
.24 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .463 19.2 4.5 4.8 3.2 1.5 5.2 .0 .78
.23 Marion,Shawn Dal 32 .495 10.9 7.7 1.6 4.9 2.0 .9 1.1 .87
.21 Collison,Nick Okl 25 .756 13.3 9.6 2.3 6.4 1.3 2.0 1.7 1.04
.17 Ibaka,Serge Okl 33 .549 12.4 9.3 .0 3.9 .3 1.7 2.2 .64
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.17 Terry,Jason Dal 34 .508 15.4 2.1 2.9 3.6 1.5 1.8 .3 .61
.17 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 22 .684 11.3 6.6 1.2 3.3 2.9 .8 .8 .93
.01 Maynor,Eric Okl 12 .455 7.9 3.6 3.8 1.9 .6 1.3 .0 .10
.01 Haywood,Brendan Dal 15 .621 9.2 5.4 .6 5.1 .0 .5 1.5 .07
.01 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 27 .636 7.6 6.6 2.0 3.0 .3 2.0 1.3 .04
-.04 Cook,Daequan Okl 11 .778 9.8 0.7 .0 3.3 .0 .0 .0 -.41
-.05 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 18 .393 6.8 3.5 2.0 1.3 .9 2.2 .4 -.32
-.14 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 19 .432 5.8 .5 .0 6.0 1.4 .9 .0 -.85
Eff% - Dal .569 - .553 Okl
Reb/48 - Okl 42.2 - 34.1 Dal
TO - Okl 16.5 - 12.3 Dal
Re: 2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder
Posted: Tue May 24, 2011 2:39 pm
by Mike G
Game by game eWins estimates, after 4 games.
Code: Select all
eWins Dallas 1 2 3 4
.93 Nowitzki,Dirk .35 .15 .08 .35
.59 Kidd,Jason .06 .13 .18 .22
.26 Chandler,Tyson .02 .09 .10 .05
.25 Barea,Jose_Juan .10 .09 .08 -.02
.23 Marion,Shawn .07 .03 .09 .04
.17 Terry,Jason .07 -.04 .09 .05
eWins Oklahoma 1 2 3 4
.73 Durant,Kevin .24 .09 .22 .18
.27 Harden,James .03 .19 .02 .03
.24 Westbrook,Russell .02 .08 .12 .02
.21 Collison,Nick -.01 .05 .09 .08
.17 Ibaka,Serge .05 .02 .04 .06
.17 Sefolosha,Thabo .03 .04 .02 .08
Through 3 games, the only players picking up at least .08 eW in each game were Dirk, Durant, and Barea.
Two game balls for Dirk, one for Harden. Durant led game 3, but Kidd led the winners.
Kidd averaged 1.7 steals in the season, and he's getting 4 per game in this series. Career 2.0
Re: 2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder
Posted: Thu May 26, 2011 5:48 am
by Statman
I'll post my playoff ratings again after this Miami/Chicago series is done - we'll see how they compare.
Re: 2011 West Conf. Finals - Mavs vs Thunder
Posted: Thu May 26, 2011 11:14 pm
by Mike G
Mavs 4 , Thunder 1
avg score 105.2 - 101.2
Pythagorean wins 3.13 - 1.87
eWins 2.82 - 2.18
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
1.14 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 41 .679 38.3 5.8 2.4 1.6 .4 3.8 .7 2.69
.83 Durant,Kevin Okl 45 .541 22.9 8.5 3.2 2.6 1.0 3.1 1.1 1.77
.62 Kidd,Jason Dal 37 .545 9.9 5.8 9.6 1.6 3.4 2.0 .0 1.63
.46 Harden,James Okl 32 .649 17.5 7.1 3.5 3.2 1.3 1.7 .2 1.37
.45 Westbrook,Russel Okl 39 .466 20.6 5.0 4.5 2.8 1.5 4.6 .2 1.10
.43 Marion,Shawn Dal 34 .538 14.5 7.6 2.0 3.9 1.8 1.1 1.5 1.22
.39 Barea,Jose_Juan Dal 17 .570 23.6 5.9 6.3 2.3 .8 1.1 .0 2.25
.32 Collison,Nick Okl 27 .729 13.2 10.1 1.9 6.0 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.12
.28 Chandler,Tyson Dal 32 .588 8.6 13.6 .3 4.6 .9 .9 1.1 .85
.15 Terry,Jason Dal 33 .510 14.9 1.9 2.3 3.8 1.5 1.9 .2 .43
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.14 Sefolosha,Thabo Okl 20 .684 9.6 6.4 1.0 3.6 2.5 .7 1.1 .68
.13 Ibaka,Serge Okl 29 .505 10.5 9.0 .0 4.6 .3 1.5 2.3 .42
.04 Haywood,Brendan Dal 15 .676 11.2 5.5 .5 5.8 .0 .4 1.2 .24
-.03 Stojakovic,Peja Dal 16 .391 6.8 3.5 2.2 1.2 1.2 1.9 .4 -.19
-.03 Perkins,Kendrick Okl 27 .568 5.6 7.5 1.8 3.0 .3 2.2 1.4 -.12
-.03 Maynor,Eric Okl 14 .444 7.5 3.0 3.1 3.2 .5 1.8 .0 -.24
-.04 Cook,Daequan Okl 10 .778 9.0 1.4 .0 3.1 .0 .0 .0 -.39
-.19 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 20 .333 3.6 1.2 .0 5.0 1.4 .7 .0 -.90
Dallas shot .559 to .544 for Oklahoma.
Rebounds Okl 43.5 - 36.0 Dal
TO - Okl 15.8 - 12.2 Dal