Foul Trouble (Ed Kupfer, 2005)
Posted: Thu May 26, 2011 9:42 pm
Recovered from the files of WiLQ
Ed Küpfer
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 687
Location: Toronto
PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 3:21 am Post subject: Foul Trouble Reply with quote
Foul trouble for players can refer to two different things. I think it's important to keep this in mind:
1. A player who commits fouls at a high rate.
2. A player who, by virtue of commiting many fouls, forces the coach to sit him on the bench.
Neither of these necessarily implies the other:
* It is possible to have a player who fouls often, yet is easily replaced (or at least his replacement doesn't represent a decrease in quality). This type of player will never cause a coach to think "I have to save him for the fourth quarter."
* Alternately, it's possible to have a player who commits two fouls in the opening minute of the game -- forcing the coach to sit him during the quarter -- but doesn't commit another foul. Two PFs/G for a starter is not a foul high rate, but the timing of the fouls is cause for concern.
The first type of foul trouble -- PF rate -- is easily analysed using traditional boxscore stats. I'd like to take a look at the second type: the fouls which cause a player to miss playing time.
To calculate missed playing time due to fouls, I had to make some assumptions about player usage and substitution patterns:
* A player commiting his first foul wouldn't have to sit.
* A player commiting his second foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the second quarter.
* A player commiting his third foul would have to sit until the third quarter.
* A player commiting his fourth foul would have to sit until the beginning of the the fourth quarter.
* A player commiting his fifth foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the fourth quarter.
I went through a bunch of PBPs to see when players had commited each PF, and then docked them minutes according to the rules above. Here were the Foul Trouble leaders for last season:
Code:
TEAM PLAYER MIN G FoulTrouble/G
ATL Przybilla 173 12 14.4
ORL DeClercq 648 66 9.8
ATL Collier 137 19 7.2
ATL Ratliff 345 52 6.6
MEM Tsakalidis 206 33 6.2
CHI Hinrich 468 75 6.2
DEN Nene 206 34 6.0
MIA Odom 466 78 6.0
MIA Grant 420 73 5.8
PHO Stoudemire 307 54 5.7
HOU Cato 383 69 5.6
LAL O'Neal 356 67 5.3
NJN Collins 399 75 5.3
SEA Lewis 389 77 5.1
BOS Blount 374 81 4.6
MIN Johnson 257 58 4.4
CHI Curry 289 70 4.1
IND O'Neal 290 73 4.0
CLE Williams 185 47 3.9
NYK Van Horn 168 46 3.7
MIL Thomas 139 41 3.4
HOU J. Jackson 234 69 3.4
MIA Jones 262 78 3.4
NJN Martin 212 64 3.3
CHI Davis 178 56 3.2
POR Wallace 139 44 3.2
MEM Miller 183 59 3.1
CHI Crawford 205 67 3.1
DET Hamilton 226 76 3.0
CLE Davis 54 19 2.9
SEA Allen 136 49 2.8
SAC Miller 194 71 2.7
NOR Brown 198 76 2.6
GSW Robinson 201 79 2.5
ATL Jackson 188 75 2.5
PHO Johnson 167 72 2.3
GSW Richardson 163 73 2.2
ORL Howard 177 80 2.2
PHI Robinson 85 39 2.2
WAS Brown 137 64 2.1
DET B. Wallace 76 76 1.0
GSW Van Exel 29 33 0.9
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Kevin Pelton
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 9:59 am Post subject: Re: Foul Trouble Reply with quote
Ed Küpfer wrote:
[*] A player commiting his second foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the second quarter.
This seems to be a bit harsh. The rule of thumb generally seems to be that you can't play with more fouls than the quarter going on (unless it's the fourth quarter, natch) and these guys usually return to start the second period unless they're resting anyways, which isn't really foul trouble.
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Ed Küpfer
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 687
Location: Toronto
PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: Foul Trouble Reply with quote
admin wrote:
Ed Küpfer wrote:
[*] A player commiting his second foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the second quarter.
This seems to be a bit harsh. The rule of thumb generally seems to be that you can't play with more fouls than the quarter going on (unless it's the fourth quarter, natch) and these guys usually return to start the second period unless they're resting anyways, which isn't really foul trouble.
An updated list, with your criteria:
Code:
TEAM PLAYER FT/G
ATL Przybilla 11.9
PHO McDyess 8.9
CLE Stewart 8.1
ORL DeClercq 7.0
PHO Barbosa 5.8
TOR Bateer 5.8
PHO Voskuhl 5.7
NYK Thomas 5.6
ATL Collier 5.5
DEN Elson 5.3
BOS Mihm 4.7
MEM Tsakalidis 4.5
ATL Ratliff 4.3
LAL Medvedenko 4.3
DEN Nene 4.3
CHI Hinrich 4.3
MIA Odom 4.2
SEA James 4.2
ATL Rebraca 4.0
CHI Dupree 4.0
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Kevin Pelton
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 1:47 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Ah, good to see Jerome James as the Sonics leader. That just feels right.
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jemagee
Joined: 05 Nov 2005
Posts: 123
PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 11:21 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Must just be my perception, but I find it highly unlikely that Sam Dalembert, who usually has 2 fouls within the first couple minutes of a game, doesn't make the top 10 of this list.
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Ed Küpfer
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 687
Location: Toronto
PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 8:25 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
jemagee wrote:
Must just be my perception, but I find it highly unlikely that Sam Dalembert, who usually has 2 fouls within the first couple minutes of a game, doesn't make the top 10 of this list.
Dalembert in 03-04 (my sample for that study) had 20 games in which he fouled twice in the 1st quarter, out of 79 total games. However, he only started 53 games, which raises his foul rate in the 1st quarter a little. If you look at the methodology of my study, you can see that it penalises starters more than bench players, which is perhaps why Dalembert does show up.
The main thing to take from the study, I believe, is how few minutes overall are actually accounted for by "foul trouble." Kurt Thomas, #8 on the list, only plays 6 minutes less than he would have had he not fouled once. 6 minutes!
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Ben F.
Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 387
Location: MD
PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 8:44 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
A couple things, Ed:
The list seems a little odd - it seems to be from two years ago. Odom wasn't on MIA last year, he was on LAL, yet you have him down as MIA. Neither was Brian Grant. Yet both have their game totals wrong - neither have ever played the number of games you have them down for in any season in their careers.
Another interesting observation - there are 3 ATL centers at the top of your list, 4 on the list you posted with Kevin's changes. That seems like it has to be systematic somehow, it can't just be that they all have axes for arms.
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Ed Küpfer
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 687
Location: Toronto
PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 8:52 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
FFSBasketball wrote:
The list seems a little odd - it seems to be from two years ago. Odom wasn't on MIA last year, he was on LAL, yet you have him down as MIA. Neither was Brian Grant. Yet both have their game totals wrong - neither have ever played the number of games you have them down for in any season in their careers.
The study used games from the 03-04 season—the "last season" mentioned in the original post (hey, it was April!). The were some game for which I couldn't find the PBPs, which accounts for the missing numbers. Odom, for example, played 80 games, but I only found 78 of his PBPs.
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Ben F.
Joined: 07 Mar 2005
Posts: 387
Location: MD
PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 8:58 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
OK, those were both my theories. So how do you explain the ATL C theory? Coaches arm them with clubs before checking them into the game?
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jemagee
Joined: 05 Nov 2005
Posts: 123
PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 10:03 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Ok, I missed the season, I thought it was for last season, not the season before, my bad, thanks for the clarification.
It's going to be such a joy to see that 10 mil a year wasted on the court this seson - oh boy Smile
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Jon Cohodas
Joined: 08 Jul 2005
Posts: 31
Location: Richmond, VA
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2005 10:03 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
The first type of foul trouble -- PF rate -- is easily analysed using traditional boxscore stats. I'd like to take a look at the second type: the fouls which cause a player to miss playing time.
To calculate missed playing time due to fouls, I had to make some assumptions about player usage and substitution patterns:
A player commiting his first foul wouldn't have to sit.
A player commiting his second foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the second quarter.
A player commiting his third foul would have to sit until the third quarter.
A player commiting his fourth foul would have to sit until the beginning of the the fourth quarter.
A player commiting his fifth foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the fourth quarter.
I went through a bunch of PBPs to see when players had commited each PF, and then docked them minutes according to the rules above. Here were the Foul Trouble leaders for last season:
Very interesting study!
Since you appear to have the PBP substitution times coded, have you considered just estimating a players minutes as a function of when his fouls occurred?
An observation I find interesting about the team that I am most familiar with, Cleveland, is that Ilgauskas does not appear on this list.
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Ed Küpfer
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 687
Location: Toronto
PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 3:21 am Post subject: Foul Trouble Reply with quote
Foul trouble for players can refer to two different things. I think it's important to keep this in mind:
1. A player who commits fouls at a high rate.
2. A player who, by virtue of commiting many fouls, forces the coach to sit him on the bench.
Neither of these necessarily implies the other:
* It is possible to have a player who fouls often, yet is easily replaced (or at least his replacement doesn't represent a decrease in quality). This type of player will never cause a coach to think "I have to save him for the fourth quarter."
* Alternately, it's possible to have a player who commits two fouls in the opening minute of the game -- forcing the coach to sit him during the quarter -- but doesn't commit another foul. Two PFs/G for a starter is not a foul high rate, but the timing of the fouls is cause for concern.
The first type of foul trouble -- PF rate -- is easily analysed using traditional boxscore stats. I'd like to take a look at the second type: the fouls which cause a player to miss playing time.
To calculate missed playing time due to fouls, I had to make some assumptions about player usage and substitution patterns:
* A player commiting his first foul wouldn't have to sit.
* A player commiting his second foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the second quarter.
* A player commiting his third foul would have to sit until the third quarter.
* A player commiting his fourth foul would have to sit until the beginning of the the fourth quarter.
* A player commiting his fifth foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the fourth quarter.
I went through a bunch of PBPs to see when players had commited each PF, and then docked them minutes according to the rules above. Here were the Foul Trouble leaders for last season:
Code:
TEAM PLAYER MIN G FoulTrouble/G
ATL Przybilla 173 12 14.4
ORL DeClercq 648 66 9.8
ATL Collier 137 19 7.2
ATL Ratliff 345 52 6.6
MEM Tsakalidis 206 33 6.2
CHI Hinrich 468 75 6.2
DEN Nene 206 34 6.0
MIA Odom 466 78 6.0
MIA Grant 420 73 5.8
PHO Stoudemire 307 54 5.7
HOU Cato 383 69 5.6
LAL O'Neal 356 67 5.3
NJN Collins 399 75 5.3
SEA Lewis 389 77 5.1
BOS Blount 374 81 4.6
MIN Johnson 257 58 4.4
CHI Curry 289 70 4.1
IND O'Neal 290 73 4.0
CLE Williams 185 47 3.9
NYK Van Horn 168 46 3.7
MIL Thomas 139 41 3.4
HOU J. Jackson 234 69 3.4
MIA Jones 262 78 3.4
NJN Martin 212 64 3.3
CHI Davis 178 56 3.2
POR Wallace 139 44 3.2
MEM Miller 183 59 3.1
CHI Crawford 205 67 3.1
DET Hamilton 226 76 3.0
CLE Davis 54 19 2.9
SEA Allen 136 49 2.8
SAC Miller 194 71 2.7
NOR Brown 198 76 2.6
GSW Robinson 201 79 2.5
ATL Jackson 188 75 2.5
PHO Johnson 167 72 2.3
GSW Richardson 163 73 2.2
ORL Howard 177 80 2.2
PHI Robinson 85 39 2.2
WAS Brown 137 64 2.1
DET B. Wallace 76 76 1.0
GSW Van Exel 29 33 0.9
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Kevin Pelton
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 9:59 am Post subject: Re: Foul Trouble Reply with quote
Ed Küpfer wrote:
[*] A player commiting his second foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the second quarter.
This seems to be a bit harsh. The rule of thumb generally seems to be that you can't play with more fouls than the quarter going on (unless it's the fourth quarter, natch) and these guys usually return to start the second period unless they're resting anyways, which isn't really foul trouble.
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Ed Küpfer
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 687
Location: Toronto
PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 1:35 pm Post subject: Re: Foul Trouble Reply with quote
admin wrote:
Ed Küpfer wrote:
[*] A player commiting his second foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the second quarter.
This seems to be a bit harsh. The rule of thumb generally seems to be that you can't play with more fouls than the quarter going on (unless it's the fourth quarter, natch) and these guys usually return to start the second period unless they're resting anyways, which isn't really foul trouble.
An updated list, with your criteria:
Code:
TEAM PLAYER FT/G
ATL Przybilla 11.9
PHO McDyess 8.9
CLE Stewart 8.1
ORL DeClercq 7.0
PHO Barbosa 5.8
TOR Bateer 5.8
PHO Voskuhl 5.7
NYK Thomas 5.6
ATL Collier 5.5
DEN Elson 5.3
BOS Mihm 4.7
MEM Tsakalidis 4.5
ATL Ratliff 4.3
LAL Medvedenko 4.3
DEN Nene 4.3
CHI Hinrich 4.3
MIA Odom 4.2
SEA James 4.2
ATL Rebraca 4.0
CHI Dupree 4.0
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Kevin Pelton
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 1:47 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Ah, good to see Jerome James as the Sonics leader. That just feels right.
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jemagee
Joined: 05 Nov 2005
Posts: 123
PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 11:21 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Must just be my perception, but I find it highly unlikely that Sam Dalembert, who usually has 2 fouls within the first couple minutes of a game, doesn't make the top 10 of this list.
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Ed Küpfer
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 687
Location: Toronto
PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 8:25 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
jemagee wrote:
Must just be my perception, but I find it highly unlikely that Sam Dalembert, who usually has 2 fouls within the first couple minutes of a game, doesn't make the top 10 of this list.
Dalembert in 03-04 (my sample for that study) had 20 games in which he fouled twice in the 1st quarter, out of 79 total games. However, he only started 53 games, which raises his foul rate in the 1st quarter a little. If you look at the methodology of my study, you can see that it penalises starters more than bench players, which is perhaps why Dalembert does show up.
The main thing to take from the study, I believe, is how few minutes overall are actually accounted for by "foul trouble." Kurt Thomas, #8 on the list, only plays 6 minutes less than he would have had he not fouled once. 6 minutes!
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Ben F.
Joined: 07 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 8:44 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
A couple things, Ed:
The list seems a little odd - it seems to be from two years ago. Odom wasn't on MIA last year, he was on LAL, yet you have him down as MIA. Neither was Brian Grant. Yet both have their game totals wrong - neither have ever played the number of games you have them down for in any season in their careers.
Another interesting observation - there are 3 ATL centers at the top of your list, 4 on the list you posted with Kevin's changes. That seems like it has to be systematic somehow, it can't just be that they all have axes for arms.
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Ed Küpfer
Joined: 30 Dec 2004
Posts: 687
Location: Toronto
PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 8:52 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
FFSBasketball wrote:
The list seems a little odd - it seems to be from two years ago. Odom wasn't on MIA last year, he was on LAL, yet you have him down as MIA. Neither was Brian Grant. Yet both have their game totals wrong - neither have ever played the number of games you have them down for in any season in their careers.
The study used games from the 03-04 season—the "last season" mentioned in the original post (hey, it was April!). The were some game for which I couldn't find the PBPs, which accounts for the missing numbers. Odom, for example, played 80 games, but I only found 78 of his PBPs.
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Ben F.
Joined: 07 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 8:58 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
OK, those were both my theories. So how do you explain the ATL C theory? Coaches arm them with clubs before checking them into the game?
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jemagee
Joined: 05 Nov 2005
Posts: 123
PostPosted: Tue Nov 08, 2005 10:03 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Ok, I missed the season, I thought it was for last season, not the season before, my bad, thanks for the clarification.
It's going to be such a joy to see that 10 mil a year wasted on the court this seson - oh boy Smile
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Jon Cohodas
Joined: 08 Jul 2005
Posts: 31
Location: Richmond, VA
PostPosted: Thu Nov 10, 2005 10:03 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
The first type of foul trouble -- PF rate -- is easily analysed using traditional boxscore stats. I'd like to take a look at the second type: the fouls which cause a player to miss playing time.
To calculate missed playing time due to fouls, I had to make some assumptions about player usage and substitution patterns:
A player commiting his first foul wouldn't have to sit.
A player commiting his second foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the second quarter.
A player commiting his third foul would have to sit until the third quarter.
A player commiting his fourth foul would have to sit until the beginning of the the fourth quarter.
A player commiting his fifth foul would have to sit until the 6:00 mark of the fourth quarter.
I went through a bunch of PBPs to see when players had commited each PF, and then docked them minutes according to the rules above. Here were the Foul Trouble leaders for last season:
Very interesting study!
Since you appear to have the PBP substitution times coded, have you considered just estimating a players minutes as a function of when his fouls occurred?
An observation I find interesting about the team that I am most familiar with, Cleveland, is that Ilgauskas does not appear on this list.
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