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Random Offensive Rating Question
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 2:55 am
by winwin
I am a long-time observer of this board with a random question. Can anyone tell me the lowest number of points per 100 possessions that can reliably be expected to win a game?
Re: Random Offensive Rating Question
Posted: Sun Jul 17, 2011 4:29 am
by Crow
Hey. If you want to keep it simple you'd probably assume equal rest. To get a precise answer I'd think you'd have to address home court advantage in the efficiency ratings. Given the league average efficiency of 107.3 and average win margin I'd initially guess a 105-6 efficiency would win 50+% of games on a neutral court with home court teams needing less and visiting teams more. Maybe even lower efficiencies would win 50+%.
If by "reliably be expected to win" you mean 2-1 or anything more than 50% that would change things.
This question has been addressed with a formula on page 131 (paperback) of Basketball on Paper:
Win%= Norm function [ORtg-DRtg / sq rt of var ORtg + var DRtg - 2 covar (ORtg, D Rtg)]
If you use league average efficiencies for the opponent (save for HCA treatment) for those expected values and league average defensive efficiency for the home team I guess you could solve for the home team offensive efficiency needed for any particular win %.
Maybe somebody who has looked at the question more closely can provide additional comments or better advice, if not over the weekend, maybe early next week.
Re: Random Offensive Rating Question
Posted: Mon Jul 18, 2011 7:41 pm
by bbstats
Could you be more specific?
What do you mean by "reliably"?
I can win a game by scoring 1 point per 100 possessions as long as I hold my opponent to 0 points per 100 possessions.
Furthermore, even teams with awful average offensive ratings"will "reliably" win a certain proportion of their games.
Re: Random Offensive Rating Question
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2011 7:34 pm
by Mike G
Maybe the question is, what's the worst ORtg a team could have and still be expected to win a game out of 82 ?
Worst ORtg since 1990 was the '03 Nuggets at 92.2, who won 17 games.
Worst ORtg to win 30% of games, 96.7, was the Heat that same year.
The '04 Raptors won 40% with an ORtg of just 97.
Worst ORtg to win 50% or more was by the '99 Knicks -- 98.6 .
The '01 Suns and the '99 Magics hit 60% wins with ORtg of 100.3 .
Of the 100 worst ORtg since 1990, the median W% is .325 .
The '99 Spurs and the '04 Pacers both won 74% of games with ORtg of 104.