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Most Improved 2010-11 (MikeG, 2010)

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Most Improved 2010-11 (MikeG, 2010)

Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:05 am
by Crow
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3627
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 4:46 am Post subject: Most Improved 2010-11 Reply with quote
Ranked by most equivalent wins added above and beyond last year's rates, in this year's minutes.
Code:
current season 2010-11 last year 2009-10
eW+ per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Eff% Sco Reb Ast
.73 Al Horford Atl 32 .675 22.8 12.7 3.5 .585 16.2 11.0 1.8
.66 Chris Paul NOH 34 .617 22.2 5.6 10.6 .574 18.8 4.3 7.2
.61 Tony Parker SAS 34 .578 22.4 4.2 7.7 .533 20.5 3.1 5.2
.56 Roy Hibbert Ind 31 .526 21.0 12.7 3.5 .529 16.6 8.2 2.2
.55 Paul Millsap Uta 37 .610 21.6 9.4 2.4 .563 15.8 9.5 1.6

.55 Monta Ellis GSW 40 .581 24.9 3.7 3.5 .510 19.7 3.4 3.0
.54 D.J. Augustin Cha 35 .541 13.5 4.2 6.9 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9
.54 Daniel Gibson Cle 29 .558 17.3 4.2 4.2 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8
.52 Eric Gordon LAC 37 .538 22.6 3.5 3.7 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2
.51 Russell Westbrook Okl 37 .544 23.2 5.7 7.0 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8

.47 Luis Scola Hou 35 .558 23.1 10.3 2.0 .543 18.3 10.2 1.8
.46 Devin Harris NJN 31 .573 22.4 3.7 7.4 .501 17.4 3.5 5.2
.45 Derrick Rose Chi 38 .538 25.4 3.7 7.1 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4
.41 Deshawn Stevenson Dal 11 .763 23.1 4.5 1.6 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7
.39 Richard Jefferson SAS 32 .661 21.0 4.7 1.8 .541 15.1 5.6 1.8

All these are with the same team as last year.
Paul, Harris, and Parker are bouncing back from bad (injury) seasons.
Ellis returning to trajectory after 2 off years.

Millsap was also this good year before last, when he started. --
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2009/

And he was among the most improved that year --
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... php?t=1964

DeShawn has played just 99 minutes. His WS/48 is about 10 times his career rate:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ede01.html

RJefferson in 420 minutes is enjoying career best TS%, WS/48, Blk%, TO%, and ORtg.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3627
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:42 am Post subject: Reply with quote
By request, here's the bottom of the list (inverted). Players who are contributing much less than last year, still in big minutes.
From data now a few days old.
Code:
Improved 2010-11 2009-10
eW+ per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Eff% Sco Reb Ast
-.75 Kevin Durant Okl 40 .541 25.2 6.3 2.2 .592 31.5 7.4 2.1
-.72 Lebron James Mia 37 .540 25.7 5.7 8.7 Cle .590 32.3 7.5 6.4
-.69 Chauncey Billups Den 32 .526 15.7 2.3 4.8 .586 22.3 3.5 4.6
-.57 Raja Bell Uta 29 .490 10.4 3.7 1.6 GS .596 15.5 5.1 2.1
-.50 Andrew Bogut Mil 34 .478 13.8 12.4 1.3 .532 19.3 12.1 1.7

-.49 Dwyane Wade Mia 35 .560 27.3 6.7 3.7 .549 30.6 5.2 5.4
-.45 Jamal Crawford Atl 30 .542 16.3 2.2 3.4 .564 22.3 3.1 2.6
-.44 Brandon Roy Por 35 .517 19.7 3.8 2.3 .556 23.6 4.9 3.8
-.44 Channing Frye Phx 29 .546 10.0 7.2 1.0 .592 14.8 7.2 1.4
-.41 J.J. Redick Orl 19 .374 8.2 2.1 1.5 .593 17.5 3.2 2.7

-.40 Andrei Kirilenko Uta 34 .550 14.2 5.5 3.2 .574 16.1 6.2 2.6
-.39 Brendan Haywood Dal 20 .505 7.3 9.6 .1 .574 11.3 11.6 .5
-.39 David Lee GSW 35 .502 14.4 12.2 2.3 NY .576 20.2 11.7 2.6
-.39 Marc Gasol Mem 34 .627 14.1 9.0 2.3 .601 15.9 10.3 1.8
-.37 Ryan Gomes LAC 32 .461 8.0 4.4 1.8 Min .523 12.4 5.9 1.4

-.36 Amare Stoudemire NYK 35 .554 22.7 9.2 2.1 Phx .600 25.5 9.7 .8
-.35 Kyle Lowry Hou 30 .383 7.1 5.8 5.9 .522 13.3 5.5 4.9
-.33 James Harden Okl 26 .545 12.1 4.9 2.1 .539 16.0 5.2 2.2
-.32 Brook Lopez NJN 35 .476 18.8 7.2 1.2 .558 19.2 8.9 1.7
-.31 Chris Bosh Mia 33 .581 21.5 8.5 2.2 Tor .577 24.7 11.8 1.7

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Crow



Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 826


PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 5:07 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Each of the Miami big 3 on the most slippage list. Looks to me like diminishing returns from 3 #1s moving into the trio are in play to some degree beyond the personal year to year stories. Whatever the gains by other Heat players combined, none of those individually made the top 15 of the improvement list due to minutes and size of role.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3627
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:32 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
The one area where it was almost a given where they'd all improve was effective shooting%. LeBron's down .050, Wade and Bosh are unimproved, and all 3 are doing less shooting.

Last year, their combined 36-minute averages were something like 88 pts and 25 reb; this year, 75 and 21.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3627
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 11:48 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Sorted by team, players whose 'extra' ewins are at least .20 more or less than what last seasons rates would have produced; or who are at least .10 in extra (or fewer) eWins and at least .20 changed in eWins per 484 minutes (1.00 = avg, zero = replacement level).

In the nearly-blank lines are the team totals, representing the summary improvements of only those players who played last year.
Code:
eW+ e484+ Atl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.71 .62 Horford, Al .635 21.4 12.5 3.3 2.14 .585 16. 11.0 1.8 1.52
.24 .24 Bibby,Mike .636 15.6 3.1 4.4 .90 .534 12.8 3.3 3.9 .66
.13 .68 Collins,Jason .667 14.1 4.2 1.5 .25 .333 3.6 4.5 .9 -.42
.10 .22 Powell,Josh .532 12.3 7.9 .9 .43 LAL .403 8.6 7.0 1.6 .21
-.13 -.24 Pachulia,Zaza .583 12.1 8.9 1.0 .56 .524 10.8 9.9 1.0 .80
-.17 -.48 Evans,Maurice .462 8.3 3.3 .5 -.02 .535 11.8 4.4 1.0 .47
-.31 -.25 Johnson,Joe .483 18.0 4.8 4.8 1.24 .532 21.4 4.8 3.5 1.49
-.55 -.57 Crawford,Jamal .554 16.9 2.4 3.3 .70 .564 22.3 3.1 2.6 1.27
1.19
eW+ e484+ Bos Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.30 .57 O'Neal,Shaquille .662 26.5 14.8 1.2 2.39 Cle .552 20.9 11.6 1.9 1.82
-.18 -.71 O'Neal,Jermaine .481 13.9 9.6 .9 .86 Mia .554 19.6 9.7 1.4 1.57
.37
eW+ e484+ Cha Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.86 .69 Augustin,D.J. .547 14.9 4.6 7.0 1.24 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9 .55
.17 .23 Thomas,Tyrus .577 20.6 10.3 .9 1.59 .501 15.0 10.2 1.3 1.36
.14 1.13 Mcguire,Dominic .500 8.9 13.7 1.5 .96 Sac .344 3.0 9.1 .9 -.17
-.46 -.34 Wallace,Gerald .545 17.2 8.9 2.3 1.20 .570 18.4 9.8 1.6 1.55
.57
eW+ e484+ Chi Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.67 .58 Rose,Derrick .531 26.3 4.5 6.8 1.94 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4 1.36
.17 .25 Bogans,Keith .465 8.6 5.2 2.6 .38 SAS .537 8.3 4.5 1.7 .13
-.19 -.26 Korver,Kyle .583 14.1 3.9 2.0 .60 Uta .614 15.4 4.4 2.5 .86
.80
eW+ e484+ Cle Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.50 .54 Gibson,Daniel .536 15.8 4.5 3.6 .94 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8 .40
.40 .51 Sessions,Ramon .472 16.0 5.0 5.6 1.00 Min .502 12.5 4.4 3.5 .49
.28 .44 Williams,Mo .506 23.1 4.3 6.5 1.64 .572 19.1 3.6 4.6 1.20
.21 .42 Hollins,Ryan .662 15.9 6.8 .6 .85 Min .585 13.0 6.2 1.0 .44
-.19 -.28 Jamison,Antawn .489 15.6 8.9 1.6 1.11 .521 18.4 9.0 1.0 1.38
1.25
eW+ e484+ Dal Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.66 .72 Chandler,Tyson .733 16.2 13.7 .3 1.53 Cha .620 12.4 11.0 .4 .81
.55 1.74 Stevenson,Deshaw .671 19.0 4.9 2.4 1.38 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7 -.36
-.49 -.84 Haywood,Brendan .520 6.6 8.9 .1 .23 .574 11.3 11.6 .5 1.07
1.00
eW+ e484+ Den Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.27 .25 Afflalo,Arron .625 13.8 5.0 2.5 .69 .571 11.9 4.4 1.7 .44
-.13 -.24 Smith,J.R. .470 13.0 5.7 2.9 .83 .510 18.7 4.2 2.4 1.07
-.17 -.23 Lawson,Ty .511 13.4 3.0 4.9 .64 .589 15.5 3.5 4.1 .86
-.31 -.36 Harrington,Al .523 15.9 6.8 2.0 .89 NYK .537 19.9 6.7 1.3 1.25
-.65 -.76 Billups,Chauncey .526 16.4 2.4 5.1 .74 .586 22.3 3.5 4.6 1.50
-1.06
eW+ e484+ Det Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.33 .33 Stuckey,Rodney .527 20.4 4.2 5.6 1.40 .471 16.9 4.6 3.8 1.07
.20 .37 Daye,Austin .542 18.3 8.5 1.3 1.14 .540 13.4 7.4 1.0 .77
-.16 -.31 Mcgrady,Tracy .432 7.7 5.1 3.2 .36 NYK .460 11.9 5.2 4.0 .67
-.19 -.42 Bynum,Will .456 11.6 2.6 3.4 .26 .504 13.5 3.4 4.5 .68
-.22 -.40 Maxiell,Jason .503 10.5 7.2 .5 .46 .521 11.7 10.4 .7 .86
-.15
eW+ e484+ GSW Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.59 .57 Curry,Stephen .563 22.3 4.3 5.2 1.55 .563 16.5 4.4 3.9 .98
.44 .31 Ellis,Monta .546 22.3 3.6 3.7 1.38 .510 19.7 3.4 3.0 1.06
.14 .30 Radmanovic,Vladi .442 10.0 6.6 2.8 .55 .447 8.3 7.2 1.2 .25
-.10 -.26 Gadzuric,Dan .409 8.2 11.0 1.1 .52 Mil .438 9.2 10.8 1.1 .78
-.19 -.39 Carney,Rodney .497 11.9 4.1 1.0 .25 Phl .509 11.9 5.9 1.1 .64
-.37 -.48 Williams,Reggie .553 13.9 3.5 1.7 .40 .581 15.6 4.9 2.0 .88
-.54 -.81 Lee,David .482 13.5 11.6 2.4 1.08 NYK .576 20.2 11.7 2.6 1.89
.03
eW+ e484+ Hou Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.50 .46 Scola,Luis .539 22.5 10.7 2.0 1.89 .543 18.3 10.2 1.8 1.43
.23 .22 Martin,Kevin .613 26.5 3.7 2.5 1.38 .550 21.3 3.9 1.8 1.16
.17 .32 Miller,Brad .592 16.0 7.7 3.4 1.15 Chi .520 13.4 7.5 2.1 .83
-.12 -.23 Budinger,Chase .460 12.0 6.0 2.2 .58 .540 15.0 5.4 1.6 .81
-.17 -.39 Hill,Jordan .614 12.9 8.7 .1 .59 .525 12.9 10.1 .8 .98
-.33 -.46 Lowry,Kyle .437 8.3 5.3 6.2 .46 .522 13.3 5.5 4.9 .92
.48
eW+ e484+ Ind Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.63 .72 Hibbert,Roy .508 21.2 12.6 3.3 1.98 .529 16.6 8.2 2.2 1.27
.30 .46 Collison,Darren .526 20.3 3.7 5.5 1.38 NOH .540 16.6 3.5 5.2 .92
.28 .33 Dunleavy,Mike .572 17.8 7.0 2.3 1.14 .523 15.2 5.5 1.9 .81
.24 .45 Rush,Brandon .584 14.9 5.3 1.7 .80 .518 10.4 4.9 1.2 .35
-.11 -.36 Jones,Solomon .568 10.2 5.8 1.0 .11 .489 9.8 7.2 1.2 .48
-.19 -.29 Ford,T.J. .423 9.6 4.3 5.2 .50 .498 14.1 4.4 4.2 .79
1.18
eW+ e484+ LAC Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.84 .73 Gordon,Eric .549 24.4 3.6 3.9 1.45 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2 .72
.16 .59 Cook,Brian .542 14.5 9.1 .8 .80 Hou .396 13.1 7.1 .6 .20
-.14 -.67 Foye,Randy .464 9.9 1.5 3.3 .01 Was .509 15.0 3.0 3.6 .68
-.16 -.34 Smith,Craig .653 14.4 7.7 2.0 .88 .584 17.5 8.7 1.7 1.22
-.18 -.79 Davis,Baron .407 11.2 3.9 5.6 .44 .493 15.9 4.1 6.2 1.23
-.18 -.37 Kaman,Chris .387 13.1 11.2 1.9 1.06 .519 19.2 10.5 1.2 1.42
-.29 -.28 Gomes,Ryan .485 8.9 4.9 1.8 .27 Min .523 12.4 5.9 1.4 .55
-.12
eW+ e484+ LAL Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.32 .50 Brown,Shannon .639 20.9 3.7 1.7 1.12 .511 13.8 3.9 1.7 .63
.31 .27 Odom,Lamar .621 17.4 11.3 3.7 1.55 .525 12.8 11.5 2.9 1.28
.29 .26 Bryant,Kobe .539 30.2 6.7 4.8 2.22 .535 27.1 5.2 3.6 1.96
.25 .27 Fisher,Derek .552 11.8 2.6 3.5 .55 .493 10.0 2.9 2.6 .27
.24 .18 Gasol,Pau .597 21.7 11.3 3.5 2.14 .580 20.1 11.5 2.6 1.96
.21 .23 Artest,Ron .477 12.5 4.9 2.4 .82 .507 11.9 4.8 2.5 .59
.16 .21 Barnes,Matt .596 14.8 8.5 3.2 1.17 Orl .568 13.8 8.3 2.0 .95
-.07 -.68 Vujacic,Sasha .391 12.4 1.5 2.0 -.21 .512 11.0 4.8 1.9 .48
-.09 -.65 Ratliff,Theo .167 .7 6.6 1.4 -.20 Cha .506 8.2 7.8 .9 .45
-.09 -.75 Walton,Luke .115 1.1 2.8 5.0 -.39 .401 7.7 5.0 3.9 .36
-.21 -.35 Blake,Steve .562 9.6 2.6 3.2 .14 Por .523 10.7 3.5 4.3 .49
1.32

I listed the entire Lakers' roster, because everyone is either significantly better or worse than last year.

eW+ e484+ Mem Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.37 .26 Gay,Rudy .559 19.8 6.5 2.1 1.29 .527 17.3 5.9 1.3 1.03
.36 .28 Conley,Mike .502 14.7 3.7 5.9 .95 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4 .67
.33 .41 Arthur,Darrell .563 15.2 8.5 .7 .98 .444 9.3 9.1 .8 .57
-.13 -.37 Allen,Tony .477 13.8 5.2 3.0 .56 Bos .528 14.1 6.3 2.3 .93
-.24 -.97 Thabeet,Hasheem .395 3.9 6.2 .2 -.19 .586 8.4 10.5 .3 .78
-.24 -1.25 Law,Acie .250 3.5 4.1 4.2 -.38 Chi .589 18.1 2.6 2.8 .86
-.47 -.43 Gasol,Marc .622 13.8 8.7 2.4 .99 .601 15.9 10.3 1.8 1.42
-.24
eW+ e484+ Mia Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.29 .38 Arroyo,Carlos .611 16.1 4.2 3.5 .90 .523 10.9 3.2 4.3 .53
.22 .33 Ilgauskas,Zydrun .575 14.5 11.7 .7 1.22 Cle .485 12.2 10.0 1.0 .89
-.10 -.58 Howard,Juwan .545 5.4 6.8 2.0 -.11 Por .533 10.1 8.4 1.1 .47
-.18 -.26 Haslem,Udonis .542 10.8 11.1 .6 .74 .529 13.1 10.9 .7 1.00
-.51 -.43 Bosh,Chris .571 21.8 8.8 2.0 1.75 Tor .577 24.7 11.8 1.7 2.18
-1.06 -.90 Wade,Dwyane .518 24.2 6.8 4.2 1.72 .549 30.6 5.2 5.4 2.62
-1.35 -1.03 James,Lebron .534 25.0 6.0 7.7 2.04 Cle .590 32.3 7.5 6.4 3.07
-2.66
eW+ e484+ Mil Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.41 .34 Jennings,Brandon .495 20.8 4.7 6.0 1.55 .469 17.6 4.1 5.2 1.20
.17 .21 Gooden,Drew .465 18.4 12.3 1.2 1.52 LAC .539 15.8 11.7 .7 1.31
-.19 -.35 Dooling,Keyon .408 9.3 1.7 3.3 .08 NJN .513 13.0 2.0 3.7 .44
-.21 -.19 Salmons,John .476 15.1 4.0 3.4 .71 .547 17.0 3.6 2.2 .90
-.29 -.45 Maggette,Corey .511 21.2 6.6 1.3 1.02 GSW .597 23.6 6.3 2.0 1.46
-.30 -.45 Ilyasova,Ersan .458 13.1 9.4 1.6 .91 .520 16.4 10.2 1.3 1.36
-.46 -.55 Bogut,Andrew .478 14.0 13.0 1.4 1.43 .532 19.3 12.1 1.7 1.98
-.99
eW+ e484+ Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.36 .30 Love,Kevin .534 20.0 17.0 1.7 1.95 .537 16.6 14.1 1.9 1.65
-.15 -.22 Tolliver,Anthony .602 11.1 7.1 1.6 .58 GSW .523 11.7 7.9 1.4 .79
-.42 -.64 Ridnour,Luke .553 14.1 3.9 4.5 .66 Mil .563 19.3 3.0 5.2 1.30
-.57
eW+ e484+ NJN Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.60 .56 Harris,Devin .583 23.5 3.6 7.3 1.65 .501 17.4 3.5 5.2 1.09
.29 .36 Humphries,Kris .603 13.5 14.6 1.1 1.46 .484 12.9 11.2 .7 1.10
-.11 -.35 Williams,Terrenc .435 11.4 6.8 4.5 .36 .453 12.0 7.3 3.4 .72
-.20 -.95 Murphy,Troy .349 8.1 11.2 1.8 .57 Ind .577 16.5 11.2 1.8 1.52
-.23 -.21 Outlaw,Travis .515 13.1 6.1 1.0 .58 LAC .498 14.1 6.4 1.2 .79
-.23 -.20 Lopez,Brook .497 20.5 7.3 1.3 1.30 .558 19.2 8.9 1.7 1.50
-.21
eW+ e484+ NOH Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.71 .65 Paul,Chris .606 21.2 5.7 10.9 2.37 .574 18.8 4.3 7.2 1.72
.38 .37 West,David .553 24.1 8.3 2.2 1.80 .552 19.3 8.0 2.1 1.43
.37 .41 Belinelli,Marco .611 19.7 3.4 1.6 .89 Tor .534 13.9 3.2 2.0 .49
-.15 -.74 Mbenga,D.J. .435 3.7 8.0 .3 -.07 LAL .467 9.4 8.6 .6 .67
-.18 -.59 Bayless,Jerryd .435 12.0 3.7 6.2 .42 Por .522 18.5 3.7 3.8 1.01
1.16
eW+ e484+ NYK Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.33 .31 Chandler,Wilson .522 16.7 6.7 1.5 1.08 .528 14.7 5.6 1.6 .77
.23 .20 Gallinari,Danilo .581 17.9 5.7 1.4 1.09 .565 15.8 5.4 1.3 .89
-.18 -.95 Randolph,Anthony .318 6.1 11.3 2.2 .50 GSW .509 15.8 9.9 1.3 1.44
-.32 -.74 Walker,Bill .578 10.1 3.9 1.2 .07 .643 16.5 4.1 1.3 .81
-.41 -.33 Stoudemire,Amare .556 23.3 9.3 2.0 1.59 Phx .600 25.5 9.7 .8 1.92
-.34
eW+ e484+ Okl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.65 .52 Westbrook,Russel .547 23.8 5.6 7.6 1.94 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8 1.42
.22 .22 Sefolosha,Thabo .542 8.3 7.2 2.0 .56 .503 7.5 6.4 1.8 .35
.10 .20 Maynor,Eric .562 12.9 4.4 4.4 .81 .474 10.4 3.8 5.8 .60
-.20 -.26 Krstic,Nenad .476 11.8 8.5 .6 .67 .521 13.4 8.6 .9 .93
-.23 -.71 Collison,Nick .500 6.5 7.1 .8 .01 .606 10.8 9.1 .7 .72
-.25 -1.35 White,D.J. .483 10.1 8.6 .7 .67 .641 23.3 8.3 1.1 2.02
-.45 -.55 Harden,James .529 10.9 4.9 2.0 .38 .539 16.0 5.2 2.2 .93
-.96 -.83 Durant,Kevin .544 25.2 6.8 2.4 1.62 .592 31.5 7.4 2.1 2.45
-1.10
eW+ e484+ Orl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.40 .46 Nelson,Jameer .565 21.7 4.0 8.8 1.71 .535 17.8 4.1 6.1 1.24
-.20 -.33 Duhon,Chris .451 5.7 2.6 6.2 -.07 NYK .495 8.1 3.2 4.9 .26
-.21 -.33 Pietrus,Mickael .588 12.1 4.3 .7 .34 .548 14.4 4.9 .9 .66
-.36 -.56 Redick,J.J. .483 11.5 2.6 2.7 .34 .593 17.5 3.2 2.7 .90
-.20
eW+ e484+ Phi Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.64 .51 Holiday,Jrue .504 14.9 4.5 6.7 1.07 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2 .56
.38 .34 Brand,Elton .553 18.4 9.5 1.6 1.41 .511 15.2 7.9 1.3 1.07
.23 .27 Young,Thaddeus .618 17.3 6.3 1.2 1.06 .517 15.2 6.4 1.2 .79
.20 .67 Battie,Tony .539 9.7 9.5 1.0 .83 NJN .409 7.4 6.2 .6 .16
-.25 -.33 Williams,Lou .504 18.0 2.4 4.1 .82 .566 17.9 3.8 3.7 1.15
-.29 -.66 Speights,Marrees .477 12.8 10.7 .8 .70 .515 17.5 9.3 .9 1.36
.91
eW+ e484+ Phx Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.31 .31 Hill,Grant .575 17.6 7.2 2.6 1.17 .550 13.5 6.9 2.2 .86
.20 .18 Richardson,Jason .562 21.9 5.5 1.3 1.33 .568 17.8 6.1 1.6 1.15
-.10 -.32 Lopez,Robin .457 11.5 11.2 .2 .89 .606 16.0 9.4 .2 1.21
-.11 -.20 Dragic,Goran .500 15.6 4.0 5.3 .64 .557 15.6 4.2 4.3 .84
-.17 -.29 Dudley,Jared .475 9.8 5.3 1.0 .28 .603 12.1 5.1 1.5 .57
-.48 -.47 Frye,Channing .574 11.1 6.8 1.0 .60 .592 14.8 7.2 1.4 1.07
-.49
eW+ e484+ Por Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.28 -.24 Aldridge,Lamarcu .497 17.6 8.7 1.9 1.24 .527 18.3 9.0 1.6 1.48
-.39 -.45 Roy,Brandon .527 21.1 3.9 2.5 1.28 .556 23.6 4.9 3.8 1.73
-.79
eW+ e484+ Sac Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.20 .68 Jackson,Darnell .475 10.8 6.7 .4 .26 Cle .375 5.2 6.4 .9 -.42
.19 .31 Garcia,Francisco .561 15.1 3.6 1.6 .86 .547 12.2 4.3 2.0 .55
.18 .43 Greene,Donte .474 13.6 8.7 1.6 1.05 .520 13.7 5.5 1.2 .62
-.32 -.49 Dalembert,Samuel .419 7.6 13.9 1.5 .92 Phl .566 11.8 14.6 .8 1.41
-.36 -.34 Evans,Tyreke .459 17.0 5.2 4.6 1.01 .519 19.4 5.4 4.1 1.35
-.15
eW+ e484+ SAS Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.53 .49 Parker,Tony .568 21.5 4.1 7.3 1.71 .533 20.5 3.1 5.2 1.22
.32 .32 Jefferson,Richar .622 19.5 4.9 1.6 1.15 .541 15.1 5.6 1.8 .82
-.14 -.32 Bonner,Matt .579 12.3 5.7 1.1 .68 .577 14.8 7.0 1.6 1.00
-.22 -.35 Blair,Dejuan .418 11.4 15.5 1.7 1.20 .554 16.5 13.6 1.2 1.55
-.23 -.31 Hill,George .570 13.1 3.9 2.6 .62 .563 16.7 3.5 2.8 .93
-.38 -.42 Duncan,Tim .511 18.5 13.7 3.6 1.99 .550 22.8 12.9 2.9 2.41
-.23
eW+ e484+ Tor Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.37 .43 Evans,Reggie .414 5.4 19.7 1.8 1.19 .480 9.5 12.6 .6 .76
.19 .17 Bargnani,Andrea .536 22.9 6.0 1.3 1.21 .546 16.9 6.9 .9 1.05
.89
eW+ e484+ Uta Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.65 .50 Millsap,Paul .604 21.7 9.8 2.4 1.85 .563 15.8 9.5 1.6 1.35
.17 .47 Elson,Francisco .554 8.2 8.9 1.9 .49 Phl .347 4.9 7.8 .9 .03
-.50 -.43 Kirilenko,Andrei .541 14.2 5.9 3.1 .89 .574 16.1 6.2 2.6 1.32
-.61 -.64 Bell,Raja .512 11.1 3.9 1.5 .28 GSW .596 15.5 5.1 2.1 .92
-.37
eW+ e484+ Was Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.30 .45 Young,Nick .588 18.6 3.2 .5 .87 .513 15.1 2.7 .9 .42
.18 .20 Mcgee,Javale .577 13.6 13.1 .7 1.43 .529 13.9 9.4 .4 1.23
-.16 -.44 Jianlian,Yi .477 11.1 5.2 .9 .35 NJN .472 12.4 8.5 .8 .79
-.30 -.28 Blatche,Andray .470 16.7 9.8 1.8 1.07 .512 18.1 8.6 2.0 1.35
-.38 -.47 Arenas,Gilbert .515 18.9 4.7 4.6 1.06 .502 22.3 4.4 5.3 1.53
-.30

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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 3:42 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Code:
improved players 2010-11 2009-10
eW+ per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Eff% Sco Reb Ast
.92 Gordon,Eric LAC 38 .549 23.6 3.5 3.8 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2
.91 Chandler,Tyson Dal 27 .711 17.4 14.5 .6 Cha .620 12.4 11.0 .4
.89 Horford,Al Atl 32 .628 23.0 12.0 3.4 .585 16.2 11.0 1.8
.78 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .534 23.7 5.9 7.7 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8
.77 Augustin,D.J. Cha 35 .547 15.1 4.3 6.4 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9

.72 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 13 .672 20.0 4.3 2.4 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7
.72 Millsap,Paul Uta 35 .598 22.1 9.5 2.5 .563 15.8 9.5 1.6
.69 Hibbert,Roy Ind 30 .538 21.3 11.7 3.5 .529 16.6 8.2 2.2
.64 Paul,Chris NOH 34 .599 20.8 5.6 10.5 .574 18.8 4.3 7.2
.63 Curry,Stephen GSW 35 .587 23.1 3.7 4.9 .563 16.5 4.4 3.9

eW+ per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Eff% Sco Reb Ast
.62 Holiday,Jrue Phi 35 .510 14.5 4.3 6.5 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2
.60 Gibson,Daniel Cle 27 .543 16.5 4.3 3.2 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8
.57 Harris,Devin NJN 31 .582 23.5 3.4 7.1 .501 17.4 3.5 5.2
.57 Chandler,Wilson NYK 32 .548 18.1 6.8 1.4 .528 14.7 5.6 1.6
.57 Brown,Shannon LAL 19 .609 22.1 4.4 2.1 .511 13.8 3.9 1.7

.56 Conley,Mike Mem 36 .545 16.0 3.6 5.7 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4
.54 Jefferson,Richar SAS 32 .613 20.2 5.4 1.6 .541 15.1 5.6 1.8
.52 Nelson,Jameer Orl 30 .575 22.4 4.5 8.8 .535 17.8 4.1 6.1
.52 Rose,Derrick Chi 39 .528 24.9 4.5 6.6 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4
.51 Miller,Brad Hou 19 .653 20.0 7.6 3.8 Chi .520 13.4 7.5 2.1

Anyone have a candidate not seen here?
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:23 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
It's funny that Ellis dropped off and now Curry is up there. Not surprising to me. Ellis has considerably regressed since his hot start and Curry is starting to come on.

What about Raymond Felton?

Oh, and would you mind if post about these in my Warriors blog?
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:32 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Here's what I've got with Advanced SPM this year:

I'm listing the regressed ASPM values for this year as the best estimate for what the player has done so far, along with the projections before the year and the difference between them.

Landry Fields has been the biggest surprise--but of course, he's a rookie.

Code:
Tm Player %Min RegrSPM Proj. SPM Difference
NYK Landry Fields 64% 1.08 -5.28 6.36
OKC Russell Westbrook 76% 7.74 2.27 5.47
TOR Reggie Evans 43% 1.79 -3.22 5.02
DAL Tyson Chandler 56% 3.19 -1.56 4.75
NJN Kris Humphries 48% 2.02 -2.45 4.46

ORL Brandon Bass 45% 2.59 -1.23 3.82
PHI Elton Brand 67% 2.93 -0.89 3.82
LAL Shannon Brown 40% 2.58 -1.23 3.80
ORL Jameer Nelson 50% 5.44 1.69 3.75
HOU Brad Miller 38% 2.12 -1.24 3.36

CHI Derrick Rose 75% 5.00 1.78 3.21
IND Roy Hibbert 62% 3.17 0.02 3.15
ATL Al Horford 67% 6.50 3.39 3.12
MIA James Jones 50% -0.38 -3.39 3.00
WAS JaVale McGee 57% 1.34 -1.66 3.00

BOS Glen Davis 60% 1.06 -1.84 2.89
UTA Paul Millsap 73% 5.00 2.16 2.83
BOS Marquis Daniels 40% 0.10 -2.68 2.78
NJN Devin Harris 57% 3.79 1.04 2.76
NOH David West 65% 3.59 0.88 2.71


Now I'm not taking into account playing time here (this isn't VORP expected vs. VORP actual, though I could do that). I'm simply looking at the biggest improvement among players playing over 35% of the team's minutes.

Also: AGING was already built into the projections. So a player that was projected to age down hill but hasn't would show up here; also, a young player would not get credit for EXPECTED improvement. This is simply comparing performance to expected true talent level for this season.
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:48 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Here it is from a VORP perspective, using -3.5 as the replacement level:

Code:
Tm Player %Min PrVORP ReVORP VORP Delta
OKC Russell Westbrook 76.3% 3.76 8.57 4.82
PHI Elton Brand 66.9% 1.23 4.30 3.07
DAL Tyson Chandler 55.5% 0.65 3.71 3.06
LAL Pau Gasol 80.6% 4.56 7.56 2.99
NYK Landry Fields 63.5% -0.01 2.91 2.92

CHI Derrick Rose 74.7% 3.75 6.34 2.60
DAL Jason Terry 67.7% 1.72 4.20 2.48
NJN Kris Humphries 48.3% 0.21 2.66 2.45
LAL Lamar Odom 74.0% 3.02 5.35 2.33
SAS Manu Ginobili 67.2% 4.47 6.78 2.30

GSW Monta Ellis 82.3% 2.55 4.83 2.28
UTA Paul Millsap 72.9% 3.94 6.19 2.26
BOS Glen Davis 59.6% 0.47 2.71 2.25
ORL Brandon Bass 45.0% 0.51 2.74 2.23
TOR Reggie Evans 42.6% 0.06 2.26 2.20

MEM Rudy Gay 83.3% 2.96 5.15 2.19
CHI Joakim Noah 78.8% 3.35 5.53 2.18
BOS Kevin Garnett 67.0% 3.83 5.99 2.16
IND Roy Hibbert 61.7% 1.96 4.11 2.15
DEN Arron Afflalo 73.4% 1.19 3.33 2.14


Again, this is difference from expected, not difference from last year.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:05 am Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:

What about Raymond Felton?

Oh, and would you mind if post about these in my Warriors blog?

By all means, share and share alike.

Felton is about .28 eWins ahead of last year's production, ranking him 53rd in the league, 2nd on the Knicks. He's getting an extra 3 Pts, 1.7 Ast, and 1.1 TO.

Here are the non-rookie Warriors:
Code:
Golden State Warriors 2010-11 2009-10
eWins+ improved G Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Eff% Sco Reb Ast
.66 Curry,Stephen 18 35 .587 23.1 3.7 4.9 .563 16.5 4.4 3.9
.40 Ellis,Monta 20 40 .547 22.2 3.5 3.4 .510 19.7 3.4 3.0
.15 Radmanovic,Vladi 16 15 .441 9.4 6.7 2.7 .447 8.3 7.2 1.2
.14 Biedrins,Andris 20 28 .545 9.5 14.3 1.6 .555 7.2 12.1 1.8
-.08 Bell,Charlie 12 9 .300 4.0 3.8 2.6 Mil .482 10.1 3.1 1.9
-.12 Gadzuric,Dan 16 13 .412 7.5 10.7 1.2 Mil .438 9.2 10.8 1.1
-.20 Carney,Rodney 19 14 .492 11.6 4.6 .9 Phl .509 11.9 5.9 1.1
-.24 Wright,Dorell 20 39 .503 12.6 5.3 2.3 Mia .562 13.2 5.9 1.8
-.33 Williams,Reggie 20 22 .559 14.5 3.8 1.8 .581 15.6 4.9 2.0
-.78 Lee,David 12 36 .497 13.6 10.6 2.7 NYK .576 20.2 11.7 2.6
These numbers sum to -.41
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:31 am Post subject: Reply with quote
DSMok1 wrote:
Here it is from a VORP perspective, using -3.5 as the replacement level:

Code:
Tm Player %Min PrVORP ReVORP VORP Delta
OKC Russell Westbrook 76.3% 3.76 8.57 4.82
PHI Elton Brand 66.9% 1.23 4.30 3.07
...
BOS Glen Davis 59.6% 0.47 2.71 2.25


Again, this is difference from expected, not difference from last year.

This is great. And not something I can quite imagine doing, creating 'expected' values.
Westbrook improved a lot last year; does that increase or diminish his expected improvement from year 2 to year 3 ?
Brand and Davis are coming off of down years. Is the expectation that they bounce back, or that they continue to decline?
What can you say about players with phenomenal improvement in limited minutes (Deshawn Stevenson) ?
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 9:10 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:

This is great. And not something I can quite imagine doing, creating 'expected' values.
Westbrook improved a lot last year; does that increase or diminish his expected improvement from year 2 to year 3 ?
Brand and Davis are coming off of down years. Is the expectation that they bounce back, or that they continue to decline?
What can you say about players with phenomenal improvement in limited minutes (Deshawn Stevenson) ?


Basically, the projection just weights the previous years' data using this weighting:

1.000
0.439
0.193
0.085
0.037
0.016
0.007
0.003
0.001

where the 1 is for data from last year.

Then, the data is regressed towards a predicted value for a player with a given MPG profile on a given quality of team (again, this includes data from previous years, but last year is weighted even more heavily.)

Then, a small overall regression to a single value is applied for all players (this downgrades players with very small sample sizes for both of the previous segments).

Finally, an aging curve is applied to update forward to this year.

It's a basic method of projection, used often by baseball projection systems.

I then use the projection as a Bayesian Prior for this year; I'm running a continuously-updated estimation of each player's current true talent level.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 10:54 am Post subject: Reply with quote
It's turning into a runaway.
Standardized, Gordon's scoring is up 38%, rebounding 27%, Ast 67%, Blk 80%; TO up 26%, Stl down 11%.
Last year's .72 eW/484 min implies he was at 72% of average NBA effectiveness; he's almost doubled that, to 137%.
Last year, he was at 42 percentile; this year at 86.
Code:
improved players current season 2010-11 last year 2009-10
eW+ per36 rates tm MPG Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.25 Gordon,Eric LAC 38 .554 23.9 3.6 3.6 1.37 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2 .72
.92 Holiday,Jrue Phi 35 .515 15.2 4.3 6.2 1.06 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2 .56
.91 Westbrook,Russel Okl 37 .539 23.7 5.6 7.7 1.86 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8 1.42
.89 Gibson,Daniel Cle 28 .553 17.1 4.3 3.1 1.00 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8 .40
.85 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 14 .659 18.2 3.3 3.0 1.02 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7 -.36

.84 Chandler,Wilson NYK 34 .570 18.0 6.9 1.5 1.22 .528 14.7 5.6 1.6 .77
.78 Chandler,Tyson Dal 27 .704 15.2 13.3 .5 1.38 Cha .620 12.4 11.0 .4 .81
.77 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .529 24.5 4.5 7.1 1.77 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4 1.36
.75 Matthews,Wesley Por 29 .577 20.8 4.0 1.5 1.09 Uta .581 14.9 3.7 1.7 .62
.75 Augustin,D.J. Cha 35 .535 13.9 4.1 5.9 .96 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9 .55

.73 Horford,Al Atl 33 .600 21.1 11.7 3.1 1.91 .585 16.2 11.0 1.8 1.52
.72 Conley,Mike Mem 36 .528 15.2 3.3 6.1 1.03 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4 .67
.71 Brown,Shannon LAL 19 .594 21.4 4.6 2.1 1.31 .511 13.8 3.9 1.7 .63
.65 Martin,Kevin Hou 32 .609 27.7 3.6 2.4 1.54 .550 21.3 3.9 1.8 1.16
.64 Jones,James Mia 23 .673 13.9 4.2 1.1 .66 .549 10.5 3.4 1.0 .18

Figuring most readers have wider screens, I've slipped a few more columns in here. If anyone requests, I will issue a slimmer version.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 11:23 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Looking at VORP, Actual vs. Expected:

Code:
Tm Player PrVORP ReVORP VORP Delta
OKC Russell Westbrook 3.8 8.2 4.5
PHI Elton Brand 1.2 4.6 3.4
NYK Landry Fields 0.0 2.8 2.8
DAL Tyson Chandler 0.7 3.4 2.8
CHI Derrick Rose 3.7 6.4 2.6
LAL Pau Gasol 4.6 7.2 2.6
BOS Kevin Garnett 3.8 6.3 2.5
NJN Kris Humphries 0.2 2.6 2.4
LAL Lamar Odom 3.0 5.3 2.3
NYK Amare Stoudemire 3.1 5.4 2.3

BOS Ray Allen 2.0 4.3 2.3
UTA Deron Williams 6.0 8.2 2.2
BOS Glen Davis 0.5 2.6 2.2
MEM Rudy Gay 3.0 5.1 2.2
PHI Jrue Holiday 1.4 3.5 2.1
DAL Dirk Nowitzki 5.3 7.4 2.0
MIA James Jones 0.0 2.0 2.0
NYK Raymond Felton 2.8 4.8 2.0
NOH David West 3.0 4.9 1.9
SAS Tony Parker 3.4 5.3 1.9

CHI Joakim Noah 3.4 5.3 1.9
UTA Paul Millsap 3.9 5.8 1.9
DAL Jason Terry 1.7 3.6 1.9
HOU Luis Scola 2.3 4.2 1.9
SAS Manu Ginobili 4.5 6.3 1.9
BOS Paul Pierce 3.1 4.9 1.8
DEN Arron Afflalo 1.2 3.0 1.8
MEM Mike Conley 2.2 4.0 1.8
LAC Eric Gordon 2.1 3.8 1.7
IND Mike Dunleavy 1.0 2.7 1.7


My ASPM disagrees strongly with your evaluation of Eric Gordon. I don't even have him as good as Mike Conley this year!
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 11:46 am Post subject: Reply with quote
DSMok1 wrote:


My ASPM disagrees strongly with your evaluation of Eric Gordon. I don't even have him as good as Mike Conley this year!


Fight! Seriously, though, I think it's great when models disagree. That's when you actually learn something new. What's the cause here?
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Re: Most Improved 2010-11

Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:22 am
by Mike G
Nice job, Crow.

Code: Select all

eW+     per36 rates     tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2010: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
4.59   Rose,Derrick    Chi   .535   28.2   4.5   8.1   2.11       .525   21.3   3.8   4.4   1.36
3.41   Holiday,Jrue    Phi   .521   15.4   4.4   6.6   1.14       .522   12.2   4.2   4.2    .56
2.91  Westbrook,Russel Okl   .524   23.7   5.2   9.0   1.91       .482   17.2   5.5   6.8   1.42
2.84   Augustin,D.J.   Cha   .538   16.7   3.4   6.0   1.07       .507   12.9   2.5   3.9    .55
2.78   Conley,Mike     Mem   .514   14.9   3.5   6.9   1.14       .519   13.4   3.0   4.4    .67

2.75   Sessions,Ramon  Cle   .535   17.1   4.4   6.1   1.14  Min  .502   12.5   4.4   3.5    .49
2.37   Gordon,Eric     LAC   .564   22.7   3.1   3.8   1.29       .560   17.4   2.8   2.2    .72
2.09  Stevenson,Deshaw Dal   .540   12.3   3.6   2.6    .54       .377    4.2   3.8   1.7   -.36
2.06   Martin,Kevin    Hou   .590   26.9   3.8   2.8   1.54       .550   21.3   3.9   1.8   1.16
1.97   Matthews,Wesley Por   .567   18.4   3.8   2.2    .97  Uta  .581   14.9   3.7   1.7    .62

eW+     per36 rates     tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2010: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
1.87   Chandler,Tyson  Dal   .670   14.6  13.1    .6   1.25  Cha  .620   12.4  11.0    .4    .81
1.85   Parker,Tony     SAS   .560   21.3   3.6   7.8   1.56       .533   20.5   3.1   5.2   1.22
1.85   Young,Nick      Was   .531   18.9   3.2   1.2    .84       .513   15.1   2.7    .9    .42
1.76   Hayes,Chuck     Hou   .551   10.2  10.9   3.7   1.11       .494    7.0  10.2   2.2    .69
1.72   Ellis,Monta     GSW   .527   21.2   3.3   4.6   1.31       .510   19.7   3.4   3.0   1.06

1.66   Lowry,Kyle      Hou   .546   14.5   4.7   7.4   1.22       .522   13.3   5.5   4.9    .92
1.61   Curry,Stephen   GSW   .584   19.8   4.2   5.7   1.29       .563   16.5   4.4   3.9    .98
1.51   Arthur,Darrell  Mem   .537   16.1   7.9   1.0   1.03       .444    9.3   9.1    .8    .57
1.50   Young,Thaddeus  Phi   .562   17.5   7.4   1.4   1.13       .517   15.2   6.4   1.2    .79
1.49   Derozan,Demar   Tor   .523   17.0   4.3   1.7    .85       .544   13.8   5.3    .8    .59

Re: Most Improved 2010-11

Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:26 am
by Crow
I'll do what I can for awhile, unless or until there is a more comprehensive solution.

Re: Most Improved 2010-11

Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:17 am
by Crow
page 2

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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 12:03 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
DSMok1 wrote:
Looking at VORP, Actual vs. Expected:

Code:
Tm Player PrVORP ReVORP VORP Delta
...
MEM Mike Conley 2.2 4.0 1.8
LAC Eric Gordon 2.1 3.8 1.7
...


My ASPM disagrees strongly with your evaluation of Eric Gordon. I don't even have him as good as Mike Conley this year!

If you expected Gordon to have 2.1 VORP, and he has 3.8 (whatever these units are), that's about 33% more/better than expected.

I have him about 39% improved in his total productivity (T rate, a weighted sum of other productions.)
This compares to a 46% increase in PER over last year.

His WS/48 is .135, or 196% of last year's .069 ; just a shade bigger step than what eWins suggests.
Those measures seem to concur, Gordon is having a better year than Mike Conley --
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=wlvdy
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 12:20 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:
DSMok1 wrote:


My ASPM disagrees strongly with your evaluation of Eric Gordon. I don't even have him as good as Mike Conley this year!


Fight! Seriously, though, I think it's great when models disagree. That's when you actually learn something new. What's the cause here?


Actually, I've got 'em just about equal. Their numbers:

Code:
Rk 1 2
Player Mike Conley Eric Gordon
Season 2010-11 2010-11
Age 23 22
G 26 24
MP 943 905
PER 17.0 20.6
TS% 0.536 0.568
eFG% 0.492 0.488
ORB% 1.1 3.2
DRB% 8.9 7.1
TRB% 5 5.1
AST% 30.1 23.2
STL% 3.1 1.4
BLK% 0.3 1
TOV% 16.6 12.5
USG% 20 29
ORtg 107 113
DRtg 106 113
OWS 1.10 2.30
DWS 1 0.3
WS 2.2 2.6
WS/48 0.11 0.135


I like the steals (particularly) and assists enough to balance out the usage and TS%. I guess it's not that strong a disagreement.

Seriously, though, Eric Gordon's VORP added only about 1.7, while Westbrook has added 4.5 and Elton Brand 3.4.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3452
Location: Delphi, Indiana

PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 1:59 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Code:
eW+ per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2010: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.48 Gordon,Eric LAC 37 .560 23.4 3.4 4.0 1.32 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2 .72
1.33 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .526 25.1 5.0 8.1 1.89 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4 1.36
1.13 Westbrook,Russel Okl 36 .527 23.1 5.4 8.8 1.83 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8 1.42
1.12 Holiday,Jrue Phi 34 .500 15.3 4.3 6.5 1.05 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2 .56
1.04 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .553 20.6 3.8 9.2 1.66 .533 20.5 3.1 5.2 1.22

1.04 Chandler,Wilson NYK 34 .567 17.4 6.9 2.0 1.22 .528 14.7 5.6 1.6 .77
1.00 Gibson,Daniel Cle 29 .538 16.3 4.3 3.2 .93 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8 .40
1.00 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 14 .673 17.6 3.5 3.5 .99 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7 -.36
.87 Conley,Mike Mem 36 .522 14.5 3.3 6.9 1.02 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4 .67
.84 Matthews,Wesley Por 30 .577 20.2 4.2 1.7 1.03 Uta .581 14.9 3.7 1.7 .62

eW+ per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2010: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.81 Augustin,D.J. Cha 34 .533 14.0 4.0 5.8 .92 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9 .55
.77 Martin,Kevin Hou 32 .616 27.2 3.8 2.8 1.50 .550 21.3 3.9 1.8 1.16
.77 Miles,C.J. Uta 24 .503 18.7 5.1 2.8 1.19 .510 14.8 4.4 2.0 .72
.74 Millsap,Paul Uta 35 .588 20.0 9.1 2.7 1.63 .563 15.8 9.5 1.6 1.35
.74 Brown,Shannon LAL 19 .588 20.1 4.5 2.4 1.21 .511 13.8 3.9 1.7 .63

.73 Horford,Al Atl 34 .598 19.8 11.3 3.6 1.78 .585 16.2 11.0 1.8 1.52
.70 Chandler,Tyson Dal 27 .702 13.6 12.8 .5 1.22 .620 12.4 11.0 .4 .81
.69 Young,Nick Was 26 .558 19.8 3.2 .8 .86 .513 15.1 2.7 .9 .42
.68 Battier,Shane Hou 31 .552 10.3 6.1 3.7 .78 .534 8.7 5.5 2.1 .44
.67 Brand,Elton Phi 34 .545 17.1 9.8 1.5 1.35 .511 15.2 7.9 1.3 1.07
.67 Felton,Raymond NYK 39 .559 16.2 3.6 9.1 1.30 Cha .519 14.6 4.4 5.3 1.08
Tony Parker has come out of nowhere, and Derrick Rose has surged toward the top.
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Mike G



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Location: Delphi, Indiana

PostPosted: Sat Jan 08, 2011 1:03 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
And what's up with these guys?
Code:
DJ white
yr tm Min TS% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO PF PER WS/48
09 Okl 130 .556 17.2 8.9 1.7 .8 1.4 .8 2.8 19.8 .157
10 Okl 102 .650 20.8 8.1 1.4 1.8 1.1 1.1 4.2 25.9 .276
11 Okl 208 .459 10.6 8.3 1.1 .9 1.4 1.0 4.8 10.1 .048

Hasheem Thabeet
yr tm Min TS% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO PF PER WS/48
10 Mem 883 .605 8.5 9.9 .4 .6 3.6 1.8 6.6 12.9 .109
11 Mem 242 .439 4.9 6.0 .3 .6 1.8 1.5 7.0 3.7 .019

Bill Walker
yr tm Min TS% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO PF PER WS/483
09 Bos 216 .646 14.7 4.8 2.2 1.0 .3 3.0 8.5 10.9 .117
10 NYK 768 .625 15.4 4.1 1.9 1.1 .1 1.3 3.9 14.6 .121
11 NYK 310 .532 10.6 4.9 2.0 .3 .0 2.1 2.9 7.1 .005

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EvanZ



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Posts: 175


PostPosted: Sat Jan 08, 2011 1:08 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
You don't have Thaddeus Young on there somewhere?
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 08, 2011 3:35 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Everybody's 'on there somewhere'; I ran out of time.
These are some guys who have had nice numbers and have not gotten minutes.
Then, their numbers plummet just when they're expected to step into more usage?
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 9:12 am Post subject: Reply with quote
A new leader: Rose has risen.
Code:
2010-11 2009-10
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.84 Rose,Derrick Chi .536 26.0 4.7 7.7 1.94 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4 1.36
1.81 Gordon,Eric LAC .564 23.1 3.4 3.8 1.35 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2 .72
1.57 Holiday,Jrue Phi .527 15.9 4.2 6.6 1.10 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2 .56
1.55 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal .627 15.9 3.1 2.7 .80 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7 -.36
1.44 Augustin,D.J. Cha .566 16.1 3.4 6.1 1.08 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9 .55

1.29 Westbrook,Russel Okl .518 22.3 5.6 8.5 1.83 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8 1.42
1.17 Young,Nick Was .559 19.8 3.3 1.1 .93 .513 15.1 2.7 .9 .42
1.13 Chandler,Wilson NYK .566 17.2 6.7 1.9 1.16 .528 14.7 5.6 1.6 .77
1.02 Parker,Tony SAS .549 20.2 3.7 8.5 1.58 .533 20.5 3.1 5.2 1.22
1.00 Gibson,Daniel Cle .538 15.9 4.3 3.1 .90 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8 .40

.99 Conley,Mike Mem .512 13.9 3.4 7.0 1.00 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4 .67
.99 Matthews,Wesley Por .552 19.0 4.0 1.8 .98 Uta .581 14.9 3.7 1.7 .62
.95 Miles,C.J. Uta .518 19.0 5.5 2.7 1.25 .510 14.8 4.4 2.0 .72
.94 Sessions,Ramon Cle .521 15.5 4.5 5.6 .99 Min .502 12.5 4.4 3.5 .49
.88 Martin,Kevin Hou .605 26.5 3.8 2.7 1.50 .550 21.3 3.9 1.8 1.16

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=kBUuF
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Last edited by Mike G on Tue Jan 18, 2011 11:03 am; edited 1 time in total
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 9:44 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Of players with at least 250 minutes this year and last, those delivering less than last year, in eWins per 484 minutes. (avg = 1)
Code:
2010-11 2009-10
e484 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.96 Murphy,Troy NJN .385 7.6 9.7 1.9 .56 Ind .577 16.5 11.2 1.8 1.52
-.86 James,Lebron Mia .568 27.0 7.2 7.8 2.21 Cle .590 32.3 7.5 6.4 3.07
-.86 O'Neal,Jermaine Bos .497 11.2 8.5 1.1 .71 Mia .554 19.6 9.7 1.4 1.57
-.79 Lee,David GSW .514 14.1 9.8 3.3 1.10 NYK .576 20.2 11.7 2.6 1.89
-.79 Thabeet,Hasheem Mem .415 4.3 6.2 .4 .00 .586 8.4 10.5 .3 .78

-.72 Durant,Kevin Okl .585 26.9 6.3 2.8 1.73 .592 31.5 7.4 2.1 2.45
-.71 Roy,Brandon Por .494 17.9 3.4 3.3 1.02 .556 23.6 4.9 3.8 1.73
-.70 Dampier,Eric Mia .425 3.9 8.9 .8 .29 Dal .622 10.5 11.9 .7 .99
-.63 Bosh,Chris Mia .554 20.8 9.0 2.2 1.55 Tor .577 24.7 11.8 1.7 2.18
-.60 Dalembert,Samuel Sac .460 8.3 12.0 1.3 .82 Phl .566 11.8 14.6 .8 1.41

e484 per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.57 Duncan,Tim SAS .518 18.1 12.2 4.0 1.84 .550 22.8 12.9 2.9 2.41
-.56 Maxiell,Jason Det .468 8.3 6.2 .5 .30 .521 11.7 10.4 .7 .86
-.55 Graham,Stephen NJN .445 7.5 4.9 1.0 .10 Cha .543 13.8 6.5 .8 .66
-.53 Wade,Dwyane Mia .562 27.7 6.9 4.8 2.10 .549 30.6 5.2 5.4 2.62
-.52 Bogut,Andrew Mil .474 14.4 12.8 1.9 1.46 .532 19.3 12.1 1.7 1.98

-.50 Flynn,Jonny Min .408 8.0 2.6 4.6 .09 .503 15.8 3.1 3.7 .59
-.50 Wallace,Gerald Cha .512 15.9 8.1 1.8 1.05 .570 18.4 9.8 1.6 1.55
-.49 Lopez,Robin Phx .572 13.6 8.0 .2 .72 .606 16.0 9.4 .2 1.21
-.49 Haywood,Brendan Dal .516 8.0 10.0 .5 .58 .574 11.3 11.6 .5 1.07
-.47 Arenas,Gilbert Orl .447 15.3 4.5 7.0 1.06 Was .502 22.3 4.4 5.3 1.53

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Mike G



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Location: Delphi, Indiana

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 10:52 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Team by team, players who have delivered (or failed to) an extra .40 wins or more to their teams, relative to last year's rates.
Code:
2010-11 per 36 rates 2009-10 per 36 rates
eW+ Atl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.70 Horford,Al .592 18.6 11.2 3.6 1.73 .585 16.2 11.0 1.8 1.52
.44 Collins,Jason .517 6.7 7.1 1.3 .20 .333 3.6 4.5 .9 -.42
-.44 Crawford,Jamal .564 20.0 2.3 3.9 1.05 .564 22.3 3.1 2.6 1.27

Bos Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.81 Davis,Glen .498 15.7 7.1 1.6 1.02 .489 12.7 8.5 1.1 .72
.57 Allen,Ray .625 20.1 4.3 3.2 1.21 .593 19.1 3.6 2.2 1.04
.50 Daniels,Marquis .525 11.2 4.8 2.4 .62 .520 11.1 3.9 2.0 .32
-.41 Robinson,Nate .535 15.8 3.6 4.2 .83 .539 18.0 3.6 3.8 1.11
-.52 O'Neal,Shaquille .649 19.7 9.8 1.4 1.40 Cle .552 20.9 11.6 1.9 1.82
-.53 O'Neal,Jermaine .497 11.2 8.5 1.1 .71 Mia .554 19.6 9.7 1.4 1.57

Cha Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.47 Augustin,D.J. .566 16.1 3.4 6.1 1.08 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9 .55
.68 Mcguire,Dominic .427 8.1 10.9 1.4 .71 Sac .344 3.0 9.1 .9 -.17
.48 Brown,Kwame .537 11.6 10.9 .5 .82 Det .454 7.5 10.4 .9 .36
-1.13 Wallace,Gerald .512 15.9 8.1 1.8 1.05 .570 18.4 9.8 1.6 1.55

Chi Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.90 Rose,Derrick .536 26.0 4.7 7.7 1.94 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4 1.36

Cle Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.02 Gibson,Daniel .538 15.9 4.3 3.1 .90 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8 .40
.96 Sessions,Ramon .521 15.5 4.5 5.6 .99 Min .502 12.5 4.4 3.5 .49
-.40 Jamison,Antawn .509 18.0 7.6 1.5 1.19 .521 18.4 9.0 1.0 1.38
-.44 Hickson,J.J. .476 15.7 9.3 1.0 .90 .571 16.4 9.6 .7 1.16

Dal Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.57 Stevenson,Deshaw .627 15.9 3.1 2.7 .80 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7 -.36
.82 Chandler,Tyson .706 13.4 12.6 .5 1.17 Cha .620 12.4 11.0 .4 .81
.48 Butler,Caron .517 19.6 5.2 2.0 1.11 .499 15.3 6.3 1.5 .87
-.67 Haywood,Brendan .516 8.0 10.0 .5 .58 .574 11.3 11.6 .5 1.07

Den Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.69 Afflalo,Arron .633 13.2 4.2 2.5 .67 .571 11.9 4.4 1.7 .44
-.53 Harrington,Al .535 15.7 7.2 2.4 .95 NYK .537 19.9 6.7 1.3 1.25
-.99 Billups,Chauncey .602 18.0 2.4 6.1 1.04 .586 22.3 3.5 4.6 1.50

Det Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.44 Wallace,Ben .456 4.9 11.3 2.2 .69 .512 6.9 12.5 1.5 .95
-.63 Maxiell,Jason .468 8.3 6.2 .5 .30 .521 11.7 10.4 .7 .86

GSW Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.82 Ellis,Monta .548 21.7 3.0 4.4 1.29 .510 19.7 3.4 3.0 1.06
.74 Curry,Stephen .568 19.4 3.9 5.9 1.31 .563 16.5 4.4 3.9 .98
.68 Radmanovic,Vladi .582 12.0 6.8 2.5 .79 .447 8.3 7.2 1.2 .25
-1.75 Lee,David .514 14.1 9.8 3.3 1.10 NYK .576 20.2 11.7 2.6 1.89

Hou Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.92 Martin,Kevin .605 26.5 3.8 2.7 1.50 .550 21.3 3.9 1.8 1.16
.65 Battier,Shane .555 9.8 5.8 3.2 .68 .534 8.7 5.5 2.1 .44
.52 Miller,Brad .576 13.5 7.6 4.9 1.17 Chi .520 13.4 7.5 2.1 .83
.44 Scola,Luis .528 20.5 9.6 2.7 1.56 .543 18.3 10.2 1.8 1.43

Ind Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.60 Rush,Brandon .541 14.4 4.5 1.3 .64 .518 10.4 4.9 1.2 .35
.43 Collison,Darren .523 17.3 3.8 5.7 1.11 NOH .540 16.6 3.5 5.2 .92
-.88 Granger,Danny .524 21.3 5.5 2.7 1.30 .553 24.1 5.3 2.1 1.65

LAC Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.85 Gordon,Eric .564 23.1 3.4 3.8 1.35 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2 .72
.42 Cook,Brian .542 15.1 8.4 1.2 .98 Hou .396 13.1 7.1 .6 .20

eW+ LAL Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.87 Brown,Shannon .567 19.6 4.4 2.4 1.15 .511 13.8 3.9 1.7 .63
.77 Odom,Lamar .603 17.6 10.6 3.5 1.51 .525 12.8 11.5 2.9 1.28
.42 Fisher,Derek .472 9.1 2.7 4.1 .45 .493 10.0 2.9 2.6 .27

Mem Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.02 Conley,Mike .512 13.9 3.4 7.0 1.00 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4 .67
.74 Gay,Rudy .560 19.6 5.8 2.3 1.24 .527 17.3 5.9 1.3 1.03
.55 Arthur,Darrell .528 14.4 7.8 .9 .90 .444 9.3 9.1 .8 .57
-.43 Thabeet,Hasheem .415 4.3 6.2 .4 .00 .586 8.4 10.5 .3 .78
-.98 Gasol,Marc .560 12.9 8.6 2.9 1.03 .601 15.9 10.3 1.8 1.42

Mia Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.64 Jones,James .629 11.7 3.9 1.2 .51 .549 10.5 3.4 1.0 .18
-.41 Dampier,Eric .425 3.9 8.9 .8 .29 Dal .622 10.5 11.9 .7 .99
-1.46 Wade,Dwyane .562 27.7 6.9 4.8 2.10 .549 30.6 5.2 5.4 2.62
-1.86 Bosh,Chris .554 20.8 9.0 2.2 1.55 Tor .577 24.7 11.8 1.7 2.18
-2.56 James,Lebron .568 27.0 7.2 7.8 2.21 Cle .590 32.3 7.5 6.4 3.07

eW+ Mil Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.45 Boykins,Earl .517 17.7 2.6 5.1 .97 .492 13.3 2.5 3.9 .48
-.45 Maggette,Corey .529 21.2 6.7 1.6 1.10 .597 23.6 6.3 2.0 1.46
-.64 Ilyasova,Ersan .493 14.0 9.3 1.4 1.00 .520 16.4 10.2 1.3 1.36
-1.10 Bogut,Andrew .474 14.4 12.8 1.9 1.46 .532 19.3 12.1 1.7 1.98

Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.74 Love,Kevin .575 19.7 15.7 2.1 1.85 .537 16.6 14.1 1.9 1.65
.46 Milicic,Darko .473 12.6 8.3 2.5 .95 .493 10.1 8.2 1.7 .73
-.89 Ridnour,Luke .578 13.4 3.2 6.4 .88 Mil .563 19.3 3.0 5.2 1.30

NJN Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.56 Humphries,Kris .557 12.6 14.3 1.5 1.34 .484 12.9 11.2 .7 1.10
.43 Farmar,Jordan .493 14.2 3.6 5.5 .81 LAL .530 14.4 3.2 2.3 .61
-.57 Murphy,Troy .385 7.6 9.7 1.9 .56 Ind .577 16.5 11.2 1.8 1.52
-.58 Graham,Stephen .445 7.5 4.9 1.0 .10 Cha .543 13.8 6.5 .8 .66
-.63 Lopez,Brook .528 20.7 6.8 1.2 1.25 .558 19.2 8.9 1.7 1.50
-.70 Outlaw,Travis .464 11.5 5.6 1.1 .51 LAC .498 14.1 6.4 1.2 .79

eW+ NOH Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.57 West,David .549 22.1 8.2 2.5 1.60 .552 19.3 8.0 2.1 1.43
.44 Belinelli,Marco .542 16.0 3.0 1.7 .67 Tor .534 13.9 3.2 2.0 .49

NYK Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.16 Chandler,Wilson .566 17.2 6.7 1.9 1.16 .528 14.7 5.6 1.6 .77
.71 Felton,Raymond .535 16.0 3.8 8.8 1.28 Cha .519 14.6 4.4 5.3 1.08

Okl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.34 Westbrook,Russel .518 22.3 5.6 8.5 1.83 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8 1.42
.43 Sefolosha,Thabo .537 7.0 7.2 2.1 .51 .503 7.5 6.4 1.8 .35
-.59 White,D.J. .455 9.4 8.5 .7 .63 .641 23.3 8.3 1.1 2.02
-1.99 Durant,Kevin .585 26.9 6.3 2.8 1.73 .592 31.5 7.4 2.1 2.45

Orl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.93 Howard,Dwight .574 23.9 14.5 1.3 2.05 .605 23.0 14.8 1.6 2.42

Phi Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.60 Holiday,Jrue .527 15.9 4.2 6.6 1.10 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2 .56
.70 Brand,Elton .554 16.4 9.6 1.7 1.30 .511 15.2 7.9 1.3 1.07
.56 Young,Thaddeus .572 16.7 7.2 1.4 1.05 .517 15.2 6.4 1.2 .79

Phx Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.50 Hill,Grant .570 16.5 6.3 2.9 1.06 .550 13.5 6.9 2.2 .86
-.44 Lopez,Robin .572 13.6 8.0 .2 .72 .606 16.0 9.4 .2 1.21
-.71 Frye,Channing .534 11.5 7.5 1.3 .77 .592 14.8 7.2 1.4 1.07

eW+ Por Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.01 Matthews,Wesley .552 19.0 4.0 1.8 .98 Uta .581 14.9 3.7 1.7 .62
-.73 Batum,Nicolas .537 14.8 6.1 1.6 .90 .639 17.3 6.4 1.4 1.22
-1.16 Roy,Brandon .494 17.9 3.4 3.3 1.02 .556 23.6 4.9 3.8 1.73

Sac Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.53 Jackson,Darnell .520 11.8 7.3 .7 .56 Cle .375 5.2 6.4 .9 -.42
-.71 Evans,Tyreke .453 16.1 4.9 5.0 1.05 .519 19.4 5.4 4.1 1.35
-.85 Dalembert,Samuel .460 8.3 12.0 1.3 .82 Phl .566 11.8 14.6 .8 1.41

SAS Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.06 Parker,Tony .549 20.2 3.7 8.5 1.58 .533 20.5 3.1 5.2 1.22
-.43 Bonner,Matt .647 12.5 5.9 1.4 .71 .577 14.8 7.0 1.6 1.00
-1.29 Duncan,Tim .518 18.1 12.2 4.0 1.84 .550 22.8 12.9 2.9 2.41

Tor Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.62 Bargnani,Andrea .546 21.8 6.6 1.7 1.27 .546 16.9 6.9 .9 1.05
.54 Calderon,Jose .555 12.8 3.7 9.4 1.15 .563 14.1 3.1 5.8 .90

eW+ Uta Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.97 Miles,C.J. .518 19.0 5.5 2.7 1.25 .510 14.8 4.4 2.0 .72
.79 Millsap,Paul .582 19.6 9.4 2.6 1.60 .563 15.8 9.5 1.6 1.35
-.88 Kirilenko,Andrei .544 13.2 6.4 3.4 .95 .574 16.1 6.2 2.6 1.32
-1.08 Bell,Raja .560 10.9 3.5 2.0 .42 .596 15.5 5.1 2.1 .92

Was Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.19 Young,Nick .559 19.8 3.3 1.1 .93 .513 15.1 2.7 .9 .42
-.65 Blatche,Andray .464 16.0 9.1 1.6 1.05 .512 18.1 8.6 2.0 1.35

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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3452
Location: Delphi, Indiana

PostPosted: Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:54 am Post subject: Reply with quote
The other day, I caught a bit on ESPN in which Greg Anthony and another guy were asked to name the 2 biggest improvers and disappointers in the league.

One of the 2 most improved according to one expert was Amare' Stoudemire, and the other guy picked Raymond Felton. Both are Knicks.
But is either the MIP even on their own team?

Code:
Min./G e484 PER WS/48
Knicks 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011

Wilson Chandler 35.7 34.8 .77 1.09 13.7 16.1 .057 .104
Raymond Felton 33.1 38.7 1.08 1.20 15.2 17.3 .118 .098
Amare Stoudemire 34.6 37.1 1.92 1.81 22.6 23.5 .181 .140

Min/G perhaps reflects what the coaches think.
Of listed 3 systems, all concur that Wilson Chandler is the most improved player in NY.
PER is the only one that even thinks they've all 3 improved.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:55 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Here's my latest top 30 improvers, and for fun and comparison, their current (and last year's) PER and Win Shares per 48.
Code:
eWins/484 min PER B-R WS/48
improvers 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011

Rose,Derrick 1.36 1.98 18.6 22.8 .100 .189
Gordon,Eric .72 1.37 14.1 21.1 .069 .164
Augustin,D.J. .55 1.13 11.2 17.7 .092 .156
Holiday,Jrue .56 1.07 12.3 15.3 .032 .084
Stevenson,Deshawn -.36 .71 3.2 12.6 -.015 .110

Westbrook,Russell 1.42 1.83 17.8 24.0 .105 .155
Young,Nick .42 .93 10.7 15.5 .046 .087
Parker,Tony 1.22 1.59 16.4 21.0 .101 .179
Conley,Mike .67 1.01 13.9 15.4 .074 .103
Matthews,Wesley .62 .98 12.3 15.3 .108 .119

Chandler,Tyson .81 1.27 12.5 18.8 .120 .233
Sessions,Ramon .49 .98 12.9 17.1 .031 .071
Martin,Kevin 1.16 1.51 17.1 22.2 .129 .181
Chandler,Wilson .77 1.09 13.7 16.1 .057 .105
Curry,Stephen .98 1.34 16.3 20.6 .077 .145

Miles,C.J. .72 1.18 10.8 15.7 .061 .079
Love,Kevin 1.65 1.89 20.7 24.9 .138 .216
Gibson,Daniel .40 .81 11.3 13.9 .117 .060
Afflalo,Arron .44 .71 10.8 14.2 .091 .130
Davis,Glen .72 1.02 11.5 13.1 .084 .108

Odom,Lamar 1.28 1.52 15.9 20.6 .143 .200
Battier,Shane .44 .72 11.1 13.1 .095 .097
Brown,Kwame .36 .94 7.9 13.9 -.009 .120
Ellis,Monta 1.06 1.25 16.7 19.1 .023 .092
Young,Thaddeus .79 1.10 14.0 18.2 .047 .144

West,David 1.43 1.63 18.9 20.8 .122 .176
Arthur,Darrell .57 .97 10.5 15.4 .031 .117
Brand,Elton 1.07 1.28 15.7 18.6 .073 .158
Jones,James .18 .54 8.8 11.8 .099 .161
Brown,Shannon .63 1.02 12.4 16.0 .096 .128
I find it interesting that even though this list is generated from top eWins improvements, the other stats show even greater improvement in the great majority of cases.

Looking at last year's players with at least 2200 minutes, I get this breakdown:
Code:
2200 min. rank e484 PER WS/48
All-NBA 15 1.75 21 .175
All-Star? 30 1.50 19 .150
mere star 45 1.25 17 .125
solid 70 1.00 15 .100
starter

And does anyone else yet systematically generate a most-improved list based on extra wins created?
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Re: Most Improved 2010-11

Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:17 am
by Crow
page 1 of 4

uthor Message
Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3627
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Tue Nov 23, 2010 4:46 am Post subject: Most Improved 2010-11 Reply with quote
Ranked by most equivalent wins added above and beyond last year's rates, in this year's minutes.
Code:
current season 2010-11 last year 2009-10
eW+ per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Eff% Sco Reb Ast
.73 Al Horford Atl 32 .675 22.8 12.7 3.5 .585 16.2 11.0 1.8
.66 Chris Paul NOH 34 .617 22.2 5.6 10.6 .574 18.8 4.3 7.2
.61 Tony Parker SAS 34 .578 22.4 4.2 7.7 .533 20.5 3.1 5.2
.56 Roy Hibbert Ind 31 .526 21.0 12.7 3.5 .529 16.6 8.2 2.2
.55 Paul Millsap Uta 37 .610 21.6 9.4 2.4 .563 15.8 9.5 1.6

.55 Monta Ellis GSW 40 .581 24.9 3.7 3.5 .510 19.7 3.4 3.0
.54 D.J. Augustin Cha 35 .541 13.5 4.2 6.9 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9
.54 Daniel Gibson Cle 29 .558 17.3 4.2 4.2 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8
.52 Eric Gordon LAC 37 .538 22.6 3.5 3.7 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2
.51 Russell Westbrook Okl 37 .544 23.2 5.7 7.0 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8

.47 Luis Scola Hou 35 .558 23.1 10.3 2.0 .543 18.3 10.2 1.8
.46 Devin Harris NJN 31 .573 22.4 3.7 7.4 .501 17.4 3.5 5.2
.45 Derrick Rose Chi 38 .538 25.4 3.7 7.1 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4
.41 Deshawn Stevenson Dal 11 .763 23.1 4.5 1.6 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7
.39 Richard Jefferson SAS 32 .661 21.0 4.7 1.8 .541 15.1 5.6 1.8

All these are with the same team as last year.
Paul, Harris, and Parker are bouncing back from bad (injury) seasons.
Ellis returning to trajectory after 2 off years.

Millsap was also this good year before last, when he started. --
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2009/

And he was among the most improved that year --
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... php?t=1964

DeShawn has played just 99 minutes. His WS/48 is about 10 times his career rate:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ede01.html

RJefferson in 420 minutes is enjoying career best TS%, WS/48, Blk%, TO%, and ORtg.
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Mike G



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Posts: 3627
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:42 am Post subject: Reply with quote
By request, here's the bottom of the list (inverted). Players who are contributing much less than last year, still in big minutes.
From data now a few days old.
Code:
Improved 2010-11 2009-10
eW+ per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Eff% Sco Reb Ast
-.75 Kevin Durant Okl 40 .541 25.2 6.3 2.2 .592 31.5 7.4 2.1
-.72 Lebron James Mia 37 .540 25.7 5.7 8.7 Cle .590 32.3 7.5 6.4
-.69 Chauncey Billups Den 32 .526 15.7 2.3 4.8 .586 22.3 3.5 4.6
-.57 Raja Bell Uta 29 .490 10.4 3.7 1.6 GS .596 15.5 5.1 2.1
-.50 Andrew Bogut Mil 34 .478 13.8 12.4 1.3 .532 19.3 12.1 1.7

-.49 Dwyane Wade Mia 35 .560 27.3 6.7 3.7 .549 30.6 5.2 5.4
-.45 Jamal Crawford Atl 30 .542 16.3 2.2 3.4 .564 22.3 3.1 2.6
-.44 Brandon Roy Por 35 .517 19.7 3.8 2.3 .556 23.6 4.9 3.8
-.44 Channing Frye Phx 29 .546 10.0 7.2 1.0 .592 14.8 7.2 1.4
-.41 J.J. Redick Orl 19 .374 8.2 2.1 1.5 .593 17.5 3.2 2.7

-.40 Andrei Kirilenko Uta 34 .550 14.2 5.5 3.2 .574 16.1 6.2 2.6
-.39 Brendan Haywood Dal 20 .505 7.3 9.6 .1 .574 11.3 11.6 .5
-.39 David Lee GSW 35 .502 14.4 12.2 2.3 NY .576 20.2 11.7 2.6
-.39 Marc Gasol Mem 34 .627 14.1 9.0 2.3 .601 15.9 10.3 1.8
-.37 Ryan Gomes LAC 32 .461 8.0 4.4 1.8 Min .523 12.4 5.9 1.4

-.36 Amare Stoudemire NYK 35 .554 22.7 9.2 2.1 Phx .600 25.5 9.7 .8
-.35 Kyle Lowry Hou 30 .383 7.1 5.8 5.9 .522 13.3 5.5 4.9
-.33 James Harden Okl 26 .545 12.1 4.9 2.1 .539 16.0 5.2 2.2
-.32 Brook Lopez NJN 35 .476 18.8 7.2 1.2 .558 19.2 8.9 1.7
-.31 Chris Bosh Mia 33 .581 21.5 8.5 2.2 Tor .577 24.7 11.8 1.7

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Crow



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Posts: 826


PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 5:07 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Each of the Miami big 3 on the most slippage list. Looks to me like diminishing returns from 3 #1s moving into the trio are in play to some degree beyond the personal year to year stories. Whatever the gains by other Heat players combined, none of those individually made the top 15 of the improvement list due to minutes and size of role.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:32 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
The one area where it was almost a given where they'd all improve was effective shooting%. LeBron's down .050, Wade and Bosh are unimproved, and all 3 are doing less shooting.

Last year, their combined 36-minute averages were something like 88 pts and 25 reb; this year, 75 and 21.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 11:48 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Sorted by team, players whose 'extra' ewins are at least .20 more or less than what last seasons rates would have produced; or who are at least .10 in extra (or fewer) eWins and at least .20 changed in eWins per 484 minutes (1.00 = avg, zero = replacement level).

In the nearly-blank lines are the team totals, representing the summary improvements of only those players who played last year.
Code:
eW+ e484+ Atl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.71 .62 Horford, Al .635 21.4 12.5 3.3 2.14 .585 16. 11.0 1.8 1.52
.24 .24 Bibby,Mike .636 15.6 3.1 4.4 .90 .534 12.8 3.3 3.9 .66
.13 .68 Collins,Jason .667 14.1 4.2 1.5 .25 .333 3.6 4.5 .9 -.42
.10 .22 Powell,Josh .532 12.3 7.9 .9 .43 LAL .403 8.6 7.0 1.6 .21
-.13 -.24 Pachulia,Zaza .583 12.1 8.9 1.0 .56 .524 10.8 9.9 1.0 .80
-.17 -.48 Evans,Maurice .462 8.3 3.3 .5 -.02 .535 11.8 4.4 1.0 .47
-.31 -.25 Johnson,Joe .483 18.0 4.8 4.8 1.24 .532 21.4 4.8 3.5 1.49
-.55 -.57 Crawford,Jamal .554 16.9 2.4 3.3 .70 .564 22.3 3.1 2.6 1.27
1.19
eW+ e484+ Bos Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.30 .57 O'Neal,Shaquille .662 26.5 14.8 1.2 2.39 Cle .552 20.9 11.6 1.9 1.82
-.18 -.71 O'Neal,Jermaine .481 13.9 9.6 .9 .86 Mia .554 19.6 9.7 1.4 1.57
.37
eW+ e484+ Cha Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.86 .69 Augustin,D.J. .547 14.9 4.6 7.0 1.24 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9 .55
.17 .23 Thomas,Tyrus .577 20.6 10.3 .9 1.59 .501 15.0 10.2 1.3 1.36
.14 1.13 Mcguire,Dominic .500 8.9 13.7 1.5 .96 Sac .344 3.0 9.1 .9 -.17
-.46 -.34 Wallace,Gerald .545 17.2 8.9 2.3 1.20 .570 18.4 9.8 1.6 1.55
.57
eW+ e484+ Chi Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.67 .58 Rose,Derrick .531 26.3 4.5 6.8 1.94 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4 1.36
.17 .25 Bogans,Keith .465 8.6 5.2 2.6 .38 SAS .537 8.3 4.5 1.7 .13
-.19 -.26 Korver,Kyle .583 14.1 3.9 2.0 .60 Uta .614 15.4 4.4 2.5 .86
.80
eW+ e484+ Cle Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.50 .54 Gibson,Daniel .536 15.8 4.5 3.6 .94 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8 .40
.40 .51 Sessions,Ramon .472 16.0 5.0 5.6 1.00 Min .502 12.5 4.4 3.5 .49
.28 .44 Williams,Mo .506 23.1 4.3 6.5 1.64 .572 19.1 3.6 4.6 1.20
.21 .42 Hollins,Ryan .662 15.9 6.8 .6 .85 Min .585 13.0 6.2 1.0 .44
-.19 -.28 Jamison,Antawn .489 15.6 8.9 1.6 1.11 .521 18.4 9.0 1.0 1.38
1.25
eW+ e484+ Dal Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.66 .72 Chandler,Tyson .733 16.2 13.7 .3 1.53 Cha .620 12.4 11.0 .4 .81
.55 1.74 Stevenson,Deshaw .671 19.0 4.9 2.4 1.38 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7 -.36
-.49 -.84 Haywood,Brendan .520 6.6 8.9 .1 .23 .574 11.3 11.6 .5 1.07
1.00
eW+ e484+ Den Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.27 .25 Afflalo,Arron .625 13.8 5.0 2.5 .69 .571 11.9 4.4 1.7 .44
-.13 -.24 Smith,J.R. .470 13.0 5.7 2.9 .83 .510 18.7 4.2 2.4 1.07
-.17 -.23 Lawson,Ty .511 13.4 3.0 4.9 .64 .589 15.5 3.5 4.1 .86
-.31 -.36 Harrington,Al .523 15.9 6.8 2.0 .89 NYK .537 19.9 6.7 1.3 1.25
-.65 -.76 Billups,Chauncey .526 16.4 2.4 5.1 .74 .586 22.3 3.5 4.6 1.50
-1.06
eW+ e484+ Det Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.33 .33 Stuckey,Rodney .527 20.4 4.2 5.6 1.40 .471 16.9 4.6 3.8 1.07
.20 .37 Daye,Austin .542 18.3 8.5 1.3 1.14 .540 13.4 7.4 1.0 .77
-.16 -.31 Mcgrady,Tracy .432 7.7 5.1 3.2 .36 NYK .460 11.9 5.2 4.0 .67
-.19 -.42 Bynum,Will .456 11.6 2.6 3.4 .26 .504 13.5 3.4 4.5 .68
-.22 -.40 Maxiell,Jason .503 10.5 7.2 .5 .46 .521 11.7 10.4 .7 .86
-.15
eW+ e484+ GSW Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.59 .57 Curry,Stephen .563 22.3 4.3 5.2 1.55 .563 16.5 4.4 3.9 .98
.44 .31 Ellis,Monta .546 22.3 3.6 3.7 1.38 .510 19.7 3.4 3.0 1.06
.14 .30 Radmanovic,Vladi .442 10.0 6.6 2.8 .55 .447 8.3 7.2 1.2 .25
-.10 -.26 Gadzuric,Dan .409 8.2 11.0 1.1 .52 Mil .438 9.2 10.8 1.1 .78
-.19 -.39 Carney,Rodney .497 11.9 4.1 1.0 .25 Phl .509 11.9 5.9 1.1 .64
-.37 -.48 Williams,Reggie .553 13.9 3.5 1.7 .40 .581 15.6 4.9 2.0 .88
-.54 -.81 Lee,David .482 13.5 11.6 2.4 1.08 NYK .576 20.2 11.7 2.6 1.89
.03
eW+ e484+ Hou Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.50 .46 Scola,Luis .539 22.5 10.7 2.0 1.89 .543 18.3 10.2 1.8 1.43
.23 .22 Martin,Kevin .613 26.5 3.7 2.5 1.38 .550 21.3 3.9 1.8 1.16
.17 .32 Miller,Brad .592 16.0 7.7 3.4 1.15 Chi .520 13.4 7.5 2.1 .83
-.12 -.23 Budinger,Chase .460 12.0 6.0 2.2 .58 .540 15.0 5.4 1.6 .81
-.17 -.39 Hill,Jordan .614 12.9 8.7 .1 .59 .525 12.9 10.1 .8 .98
-.33 -.46 Lowry,Kyle .437 8.3 5.3 6.2 .46 .522 13.3 5.5 4.9 .92
.48
eW+ e484+ Ind Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.63 .72 Hibbert,Roy .508 21.2 12.6 3.3 1.98 .529 16.6 8.2 2.2 1.27
.30 .46 Collison,Darren .526 20.3 3.7 5.5 1.38 NOH .540 16.6 3.5 5.2 .92
.28 .33 Dunleavy,Mike .572 17.8 7.0 2.3 1.14 .523 15.2 5.5 1.9 .81
.24 .45 Rush,Brandon .584 14.9 5.3 1.7 .80 .518 10.4 4.9 1.2 .35
-.11 -.36 Jones,Solomon .568 10.2 5.8 1.0 .11 .489 9.8 7.2 1.2 .48
-.19 -.29 Ford,T.J. .423 9.6 4.3 5.2 .50 .498 14.1 4.4 4.2 .79
1.18
eW+ e484+ LAC Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.84 .73 Gordon,Eric .549 24.4 3.6 3.9 1.45 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2 .72
.16 .59 Cook,Brian .542 14.5 9.1 .8 .80 Hou .396 13.1 7.1 .6 .20
-.14 -.67 Foye,Randy .464 9.9 1.5 3.3 .01 Was .509 15.0 3.0 3.6 .68
-.16 -.34 Smith,Craig .653 14.4 7.7 2.0 .88 .584 17.5 8.7 1.7 1.22
-.18 -.79 Davis,Baron .407 11.2 3.9 5.6 .44 .493 15.9 4.1 6.2 1.23
-.18 -.37 Kaman,Chris .387 13.1 11.2 1.9 1.06 .519 19.2 10.5 1.2 1.42
-.29 -.28 Gomes,Ryan .485 8.9 4.9 1.8 .27 Min .523 12.4 5.9 1.4 .55
-.12
eW+ e484+ LAL Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.32 .50 Brown,Shannon .639 20.9 3.7 1.7 1.12 .511 13.8 3.9 1.7 .63
.31 .27 Odom,Lamar .621 17.4 11.3 3.7 1.55 .525 12.8 11.5 2.9 1.28
.29 .26 Bryant,Kobe .539 30.2 6.7 4.8 2.22 .535 27.1 5.2 3.6 1.96
.25 .27 Fisher,Derek .552 11.8 2.6 3.5 .55 .493 10.0 2.9 2.6 .27
.24 .18 Gasol,Pau .597 21.7 11.3 3.5 2.14 .580 20.1 11.5 2.6 1.96
.21 .23 Artest,Ron .477 12.5 4.9 2.4 .82 .507 11.9 4.8 2.5 .59
.16 .21 Barnes,Matt .596 14.8 8.5 3.2 1.17 Orl .568 13.8 8.3 2.0 .95
-.07 -.68 Vujacic,Sasha .391 12.4 1.5 2.0 -.21 .512 11.0 4.8 1.9 .48
-.09 -.65 Ratliff,Theo .167 .7 6.6 1.4 -.20 Cha .506 8.2 7.8 .9 .45
-.09 -.75 Walton,Luke .115 1.1 2.8 5.0 -.39 .401 7.7 5.0 3.9 .36
-.21 -.35 Blake,Steve .562 9.6 2.6 3.2 .14 Por .523 10.7 3.5 4.3 .49
1.32

I listed the entire Lakers' roster, because everyone is either significantly better or worse than last year.

eW+ e484+ Mem Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.37 .26 Gay,Rudy .559 19.8 6.5 2.1 1.29 .527 17.3 5.9 1.3 1.03
.36 .28 Conley,Mike .502 14.7 3.7 5.9 .95 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4 .67
.33 .41 Arthur,Darrell .563 15.2 8.5 .7 .98 .444 9.3 9.1 .8 .57
-.13 -.37 Allen,Tony .477 13.8 5.2 3.0 .56 Bos .528 14.1 6.3 2.3 .93
-.24 -.97 Thabeet,Hasheem .395 3.9 6.2 .2 -.19 .586 8.4 10.5 .3 .78
-.24 -1.25 Law,Acie .250 3.5 4.1 4.2 -.38 Chi .589 18.1 2.6 2.8 .86
-.47 -.43 Gasol,Marc .622 13.8 8.7 2.4 .99 .601 15.9 10.3 1.8 1.42
-.24
eW+ e484+ Mia Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.29 .38 Arroyo,Carlos .611 16.1 4.2 3.5 .90 .523 10.9 3.2 4.3 .53
.22 .33 Ilgauskas,Zydrun .575 14.5 11.7 .7 1.22 Cle .485 12.2 10.0 1.0 .89
-.10 -.58 Howard,Juwan .545 5.4 6.8 2.0 -.11 Por .533 10.1 8.4 1.1 .47
-.18 -.26 Haslem,Udonis .542 10.8 11.1 .6 .74 .529 13.1 10.9 .7 1.00
-.51 -.43 Bosh,Chris .571 21.8 8.8 2.0 1.75 Tor .577 24.7 11.8 1.7 2.18
-1.06 -.90 Wade,Dwyane .518 24.2 6.8 4.2 1.72 .549 30.6 5.2 5.4 2.62
-1.35 -1.03 James,Lebron .534 25.0 6.0 7.7 2.04 Cle .590 32.3 7.5 6.4 3.07
-2.66
eW+ e484+ Mil Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.41 .34 Jennings,Brandon .495 20.8 4.7 6.0 1.55 .469 17.6 4.1 5.2 1.20
.17 .21 Gooden,Drew .465 18.4 12.3 1.2 1.52 LAC .539 15.8 11.7 .7 1.31
-.19 -.35 Dooling,Keyon .408 9.3 1.7 3.3 .08 NJN .513 13.0 2.0 3.7 .44
-.21 -.19 Salmons,John .476 15.1 4.0 3.4 .71 .547 17.0 3.6 2.2 .90
-.29 -.45 Maggette,Corey .511 21.2 6.6 1.3 1.02 GSW .597 23.6 6.3 2.0 1.46
-.30 -.45 Ilyasova,Ersan .458 13.1 9.4 1.6 .91 .520 16.4 10.2 1.3 1.36
-.46 -.55 Bogut,Andrew .478 14.0 13.0 1.4 1.43 .532 19.3 12.1 1.7 1.98
-.99
eW+ e484+ Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.36 .30 Love,Kevin .534 20.0 17.0 1.7 1.95 .537 16.6 14.1 1.9 1.65
-.15 -.22 Tolliver,Anthony .602 11.1 7.1 1.6 .58 GSW .523 11.7 7.9 1.4 .79
-.42 -.64 Ridnour,Luke .553 14.1 3.9 4.5 .66 Mil .563 19.3 3.0 5.2 1.30
-.57
eW+ e484+ NJN Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.60 .56 Harris,Devin .583 23.5 3.6 7.3 1.65 .501 17.4 3.5 5.2 1.09
.29 .36 Humphries,Kris .603 13.5 14.6 1.1 1.46 .484 12.9 11.2 .7 1.10
-.11 -.35 Williams,Terrenc .435 11.4 6.8 4.5 .36 .453 12.0 7.3 3.4 .72
-.20 -.95 Murphy,Troy .349 8.1 11.2 1.8 .57 Ind .577 16.5 11.2 1.8 1.52
-.23 -.21 Outlaw,Travis .515 13.1 6.1 1.0 .58 LAC .498 14.1 6.4 1.2 .79
-.23 -.20 Lopez,Brook .497 20.5 7.3 1.3 1.30 .558 19.2 8.9 1.7 1.50
-.21
eW+ e484+ NOH Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.71 .65 Paul,Chris .606 21.2 5.7 10.9 2.37 .574 18.8 4.3 7.2 1.72
.38 .37 West,David .553 24.1 8.3 2.2 1.80 .552 19.3 8.0 2.1 1.43
.37 .41 Belinelli,Marco .611 19.7 3.4 1.6 .89 Tor .534 13.9 3.2 2.0 .49
-.15 -.74 Mbenga,D.J. .435 3.7 8.0 .3 -.07 LAL .467 9.4 8.6 .6 .67
-.18 -.59 Bayless,Jerryd .435 12.0 3.7 6.2 .42 Por .522 18.5 3.7 3.8 1.01
1.16
eW+ e484+ NYK Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.33 .31 Chandler,Wilson .522 16.7 6.7 1.5 1.08 .528 14.7 5.6 1.6 .77
.23 .20 Gallinari,Danilo .581 17.9 5.7 1.4 1.09 .565 15.8 5.4 1.3 .89
-.18 -.95 Randolph,Anthony .318 6.1 11.3 2.2 .50 GSW .509 15.8 9.9 1.3 1.44
-.32 -.74 Walker,Bill .578 10.1 3.9 1.2 .07 .643 16.5 4.1 1.3 .81
-.41 -.33 Stoudemire,Amare .556 23.3 9.3 2.0 1.59 Phx .600 25.5 9.7 .8 1.92
-.34
eW+ e484+ Okl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.65 .52 Westbrook,Russel .547 23.8 5.6 7.6 1.94 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8 1.42
.22 .22 Sefolosha,Thabo .542 8.3 7.2 2.0 .56 .503 7.5 6.4 1.8 .35
.10 .20 Maynor,Eric .562 12.9 4.4 4.4 .81 .474 10.4 3.8 5.8 .60
-.20 -.26 Krstic,Nenad .476 11.8 8.5 .6 .67 .521 13.4 8.6 .9 .93
-.23 -.71 Collison,Nick .500 6.5 7.1 .8 .01 .606 10.8 9.1 .7 .72
-.25 -1.35 White,D.J. .483 10.1 8.6 .7 .67 .641 23.3 8.3 1.1 2.02
-.45 -.55 Harden,James .529 10.9 4.9 2.0 .38 .539 16.0 5.2 2.2 .93
-.96 -.83 Durant,Kevin .544 25.2 6.8 2.4 1.62 .592 31.5 7.4 2.1 2.45
-1.10
eW+ e484+ Orl Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.40 .46 Nelson,Jameer .565 21.7 4.0 8.8 1.71 .535 17.8 4.1 6.1 1.24
-.20 -.33 Duhon,Chris .451 5.7 2.6 6.2 -.07 NYK .495 8.1 3.2 4.9 .26
-.21 -.33 Pietrus,Mickael .588 12.1 4.3 .7 .34 .548 14.4 4.9 .9 .66
-.36 -.56 Redick,J.J. .483 11.5 2.6 2.7 .34 .593 17.5 3.2 2.7 .90
-.20
eW+ e484+ Phi Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.64 .51 Holiday,Jrue .504 14.9 4.5 6.7 1.07 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2 .56
.38 .34 Brand,Elton .553 18.4 9.5 1.6 1.41 .511 15.2 7.9 1.3 1.07
.23 .27 Young,Thaddeus .618 17.3 6.3 1.2 1.06 .517 15.2 6.4 1.2 .79
.20 .67 Battie,Tony .539 9.7 9.5 1.0 .83 NJN .409 7.4 6.2 .6 .16
-.25 -.33 Williams,Lou .504 18.0 2.4 4.1 .82 .566 17.9 3.8 3.7 1.15
-.29 -.66 Speights,Marrees .477 12.8 10.7 .8 .70 .515 17.5 9.3 .9 1.36
.91
eW+ e484+ Phx Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.31 .31 Hill,Grant .575 17.6 7.2 2.6 1.17 .550 13.5 6.9 2.2 .86
.20 .18 Richardson,Jason .562 21.9 5.5 1.3 1.33 .568 17.8 6.1 1.6 1.15
-.10 -.32 Lopez,Robin .457 11.5 11.2 .2 .89 .606 16.0 9.4 .2 1.21
-.11 -.20 Dragic,Goran .500 15.6 4.0 5.3 .64 .557 15.6 4.2 4.3 .84
-.17 -.29 Dudley,Jared .475 9.8 5.3 1.0 .28 .603 12.1 5.1 1.5 .57
-.48 -.47 Frye,Channing .574 11.1 6.8 1.0 .60 .592 14.8 7.2 1.4 1.07
-.49
eW+ e484+ Por Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.28 -.24 Aldridge,Lamarcu .497 17.6 8.7 1.9 1.24 .527 18.3 9.0 1.6 1.48
-.39 -.45 Roy,Brandon .527 21.1 3.9 2.5 1.28 .556 23.6 4.9 3.8 1.73
-.79
eW+ e484+ Sac Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.20 .68 Jackson,Darnell .475 10.8 6.7 .4 .26 Cle .375 5.2 6.4 .9 -.42
.19 .31 Garcia,Francisco .561 15.1 3.6 1.6 .86 .547 12.2 4.3 2.0 .55
.18 .43 Greene,Donte .474 13.6 8.7 1.6 1.05 .520 13.7 5.5 1.2 .62
-.32 -.49 Dalembert,Samuel .419 7.6 13.9 1.5 .92 Phl .566 11.8 14.6 .8 1.41
-.36 -.34 Evans,Tyreke .459 17.0 5.2 4.6 1.01 .519 19.4 5.4 4.1 1.35
-.15
eW+ e484+ SAS Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.53 .49 Parker,Tony .568 21.5 4.1 7.3 1.71 .533 20.5 3.1 5.2 1.22
.32 .32 Jefferson,Richar .622 19.5 4.9 1.6 1.15 .541 15.1 5.6 1.8 .82
-.14 -.32 Bonner,Matt .579 12.3 5.7 1.1 .68 .577 14.8 7.0 1.6 1.00
-.22 -.35 Blair,Dejuan .418 11.4 15.5 1.7 1.20 .554 16.5 13.6 1.2 1.55
-.23 -.31 Hill,George .570 13.1 3.9 2.6 .62 .563 16.7 3.5 2.8 .93
-.38 -.42 Duncan,Tim .511 18.5 13.7 3.6 1.99 .550 22.8 12.9 2.9 2.41
-.23
eW+ e484+ Tor Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.37 .43 Evans,Reggie .414 5.4 19.7 1.8 1.19 .480 9.5 12.6 .6 .76
.19 .17 Bargnani,Andrea .536 22.9 6.0 1.3 1.21 .546 16.9 6.9 .9 1.05
.89
eW+ e484+ Uta Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.65 .50 Millsap,Paul .604 21.7 9.8 2.4 1.85 .563 15.8 9.5 1.6 1.35
.17 .47 Elson,Francisco .554 8.2 8.9 1.9 .49 Phl .347 4.9 7.8 .9 .03
-.50 -.43 Kirilenko,Andrei .541 14.2 5.9 3.1 .89 .574 16.1 6.2 2.6 1.32
-.61 -.64 Bell,Raja .512 11.1 3.9 1.5 .28 GSW .596 15.5 5.1 2.1 .92
-.37
eW+ e484+ Was Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.30 .45 Young,Nick .588 18.6 3.2 .5 .87 .513 15.1 2.7 .9 .42
.18 .20 Mcgee,Javale .577 13.6 13.1 .7 1.43 .529 13.9 9.4 .4 1.23
-.16 -.44 Jianlian,Yi .477 11.1 5.2 .9 .35 NJN .472 12.4 8.5 .8 .79
-.30 -.28 Blatche,Andray .470 16.7 9.8 1.8 1.07 .512 18.1 8.6 2.0 1.35
-.38 -.47 Arenas,Gilbert .515 18.9 4.7 4.6 1.06 .502 22.3 4.4 5.3 1.53
-.30

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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 3:42 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Code:
improved players 2010-11 2009-10
eW+ per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Eff% Sco Reb Ast
.92 Gordon,Eric LAC 38 .549 23.6 3.5 3.8 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2
.91 Chandler,Tyson Dal 27 .711 17.4 14.5 .6 Cha .620 12.4 11.0 .4
.89 Horford,Al Atl 32 .628 23.0 12.0 3.4 .585 16.2 11.0 1.8
.78 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .534 23.7 5.9 7.7 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8
.77 Augustin,D.J. Cha 35 .547 15.1 4.3 6.4 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9

.72 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 13 .672 20.0 4.3 2.4 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7
.72 Millsap,Paul Uta 35 .598 22.1 9.5 2.5 .563 15.8 9.5 1.6
.69 Hibbert,Roy Ind 30 .538 21.3 11.7 3.5 .529 16.6 8.2 2.2
.64 Paul,Chris NOH 34 .599 20.8 5.6 10.5 .574 18.8 4.3 7.2
.63 Curry,Stephen GSW 35 .587 23.1 3.7 4.9 .563 16.5 4.4 3.9

eW+ per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Eff% Sco Reb Ast
.62 Holiday,Jrue Phi 35 .510 14.5 4.3 6.5 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2
.60 Gibson,Daniel Cle 27 .543 16.5 4.3 3.2 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8
.57 Harris,Devin NJN 31 .582 23.5 3.4 7.1 .501 17.4 3.5 5.2
.57 Chandler,Wilson NYK 32 .548 18.1 6.8 1.4 .528 14.7 5.6 1.6
.57 Brown,Shannon LAL 19 .609 22.1 4.4 2.1 .511 13.8 3.9 1.7

.56 Conley,Mike Mem 36 .545 16.0 3.6 5.7 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4
.54 Jefferson,Richar SAS 32 .613 20.2 5.4 1.6 .541 15.1 5.6 1.8
.52 Nelson,Jameer Orl 30 .575 22.4 4.5 8.8 .535 17.8 4.1 6.1
.52 Rose,Derrick Chi 39 .528 24.9 4.5 6.6 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4
.51 Miller,Brad Hou 19 .653 20.0 7.6 3.8 Chi .520 13.4 7.5 2.1

Anyone have a candidate not seen here?
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:23 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
It's funny that Ellis dropped off and now Curry is up there. Not surprising to me. Ellis has considerably regressed since his hot start and Curry is starting to come on.

What about Raymond Felton?

Oh, and would you mind if post about these in my Warriors blog?
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:32 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Here's what I've got with Advanced SPM this year:

I'm listing the regressed ASPM values for this year as the best estimate for what the player has done so far, along with the projections before the year and the difference between them.

Landry Fields has been the biggest surprise--but of course, he's a rookie.

Code:
Tm Player %Min RegrSPM Proj. SPM Difference
NYK Landry Fields 64% 1.08 -5.28 6.36
OKC Russell Westbrook 76% 7.74 2.27 5.47
TOR Reggie Evans 43% 1.79 -3.22 5.02
DAL Tyson Chandler 56% 3.19 -1.56 4.75
NJN Kris Humphries 48% 2.02 -2.45 4.46

ORL Brandon Bass 45% 2.59 -1.23 3.82
PHI Elton Brand 67% 2.93 -0.89 3.82
LAL Shannon Brown 40% 2.58 -1.23 3.80
ORL Jameer Nelson 50% 5.44 1.69 3.75
HOU Brad Miller 38% 2.12 -1.24 3.36

CHI Derrick Rose 75% 5.00 1.78 3.21
IND Roy Hibbert 62% 3.17 0.02 3.15
ATL Al Horford 67% 6.50 3.39 3.12
MIA James Jones 50% -0.38 -3.39 3.00
WAS JaVale McGee 57% 1.34 -1.66 3.00

BOS Glen Davis 60% 1.06 -1.84 2.89
UTA Paul Millsap 73% 5.00 2.16 2.83
BOS Marquis Daniels 40% 0.10 -2.68 2.78
NJN Devin Harris 57% 3.79 1.04 2.76
NOH David West 65% 3.59 0.88 2.71


Now I'm not taking into account playing time here (this isn't VORP expected vs. VORP actual, though I could do that). I'm simply looking at the biggest improvement among players playing over 35% of the team's minutes.

Also: AGING was already built into the projections. So a player that was projected to age down hill but hasn't would show up here; also, a young player would not get credit for EXPECTED improvement. This is simply comparing performance to expected true talent level for this season.
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:48 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Here it is from a VORP perspective, using -3.5 as the replacement level:

Code:
Tm Player %Min PrVORP ReVORP VORP Delta
OKC Russell Westbrook 76.3% 3.76 8.57 4.82
PHI Elton Brand 66.9% 1.23 4.30 3.07
DAL Tyson Chandler 55.5% 0.65 3.71 3.06
LAL Pau Gasol 80.6% 4.56 7.56 2.99
NYK Landry Fields 63.5% -0.01 2.91 2.92

CHI Derrick Rose 74.7% 3.75 6.34 2.60
DAL Jason Terry 67.7% 1.72 4.20 2.48
NJN Kris Humphries 48.3% 0.21 2.66 2.45
LAL Lamar Odom 74.0% 3.02 5.35 2.33
SAS Manu Ginobili 67.2% 4.47 6.78 2.30

GSW Monta Ellis 82.3% 2.55 4.83 2.28
UTA Paul Millsap 72.9% 3.94 6.19 2.26
BOS Glen Davis 59.6% 0.47 2.71 2.25
ORL Brandon Bass 45.0% 0.51 2.74 2.23
TOR Reggie Evans 42.6% 0.06 2.26 2.20

MEM Rudy Gay 83.3% 2.96 5.15 2.19
CHI Joakim Noah 78.8% 3.35 5.53 2.18
BOS Kevin Garnett 67.0% 3.83 5.99 2.16
IND Roy Hibbert 61.7% 1.96 4.11 2.15
DEN Arron Afflalo 73.4% 1.19 3.33 2.14


Again, this is difference from expected, not difference from last year.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:05 am Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:

What about Raymond Felton?

Oh, and would you mind if post about these in my Warriors blog?

By all means, share and share alike.

Felton is about .28 eWins ahead of last year's production, ranking him 53rd in the league, 2nd on the Knicks. He's getting an extra 3 Pts, 1.7 Ast, and 1.1 TO.

Here are the non-rookie Warriors:
Code:
Golden State Warriors 2010-11 2009-10
eWins+ improved G Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Eff% Sco Reb Ast
.66 Curry,Stephen 18 35 .587 23.1 3.7 4.9 .563 16.5 4.4 3.9
.40 Ellis,Monta 20 40 .547 22.2 3.5 3.4 .510 19.7 3.4 3.0
.15 Radmanovic,Vladi 16 15 .441 9.4 6.7 2.7 .447 8.3 7.2 1.2
.14 Biedrins,Andris 20 28 .545 9.5 14.3 1.6 .555 7.2 12.1 1.8
-.08 Bell,Charlie 12 9 .300 4.0 3.8 2.6 Mil .482 10.1 3.1 1.9
-.12 Gadzuric,Dan 16 13 .412 7.5 10.7 1.2 Mil .438 9.2 10.8 1.1
-.20 Carney,Rodney 19 14 .492 11.6 4.6 .9 Phl .509 11.9 5.9 1.1
-.24 Wright,Dorell 20 39 .503 12.6 5.3 2.3 Mia .562 13.2 5.9 1.8
-.33 Williams,Reggie 20 22 .559 14.5 3.8 1.8 .581 15.6 4.9 2.0
-.78 Lee,David 12 36 .497 13.6 10.6 2.7 NYK .576 20.2 11.7 2.6
These numbers sum to -.41
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:31 am Post subject: Reply with quote
DSMok1 wrote:
Here it is from a VORP perspective, using -3.5 as the replacement level:

Code:
Tm Player %Min PrVORP ReVORP VORP Delta
OKC Russell Westbrook 76.3% 3.76 8.57 4.82
PHI Elton Brand 66.9% 1.23 4.30 3.07
...
BOS Glen Davis 59.6% 0.47 2.71 2.25


Again, this is difference from expected, not difference from last year.

This is great. And not something I can quite imagine doing, creating 'expected' values.
Westbrook improved a lot last year; does that increase or diminish his expected improvement from year 2 to year 3 ?
Brand and Davis are coming off of down years. Is the expectation that they bounce back, or that they continue to decline?
What can you say about players with phenomenal improvement in limited minutes (Deshawn Stevenson) ?
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 9:10 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:

This is great. And not something I can quite imagine doing, creating 'expected' values.
Westbrook improved a lot last year; does that increase or diminish his expected improvement from year 2 to year 3 ?
Brand and Davis are coming off of down years. Is the expectation that they bounce back, or that they continue to decline?
What can you say about players with phenomenal improvement in limited minutes (Deshawn Stevenson) ?


Basically, the projection just weights the previous years' data using this weighting:

1.000
0.439
0.193
0.085
0.037
0.016
0.007
0.003
0.001

where the 1 is for data from last year.

Then, the data is regressed towards a predicted value for a player with a given MPG profile on a given quality of team (again, this includes data from previous years, but last year is weighted even more heavily.)

Then, a small overall regression to a single value is applied for all players (this downgrades players with very small sample sizes for both of the previous segments).

Finally, an aging curve is applied to update forward to this year.

It's a basic method of projection, used often by baseball projection systems.

I then use the projection as a Bayesian Prior for this year; I'm running a continuously-updated estimation of each player's current true talent level.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 10:54 am Post subject: Reply with quote
It's turning into a runaway.
Standardized, Gordon's scoring is up 38%, rebounding 27%, Ast 67%, Blk 80%; TO up 26%, Stl down 11%.
Last year's .72 eW/484 min implies he was at 72% of average NBA effectiveness; he's almost doubled that, to 137%.
Last year, he was at 42 percentile; this year at 86.
Code:
improved players current season 2010-11 last year 2009-10
eW+ per36 rates tm MPG Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.25 Gordon,Eric LAC 38 .554 23.9 3.6 3.6 1.37 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2 .72
.92 Holiday,Jrue Phi 35 .515 15.2 4.3 6.2 1.06 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2 .56
.91 Westbrook,Russel Okl 37 .539 23.7 5.6 7.7 1.86 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8 1.42
.89 Gibson,Daniel Cle 28 .553 17.1 4.3 3.1 1.00 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8 .40
.85 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal 14 .659 18.2 3.3 3.0 1.02 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7 -.36

.84 Chandler,Wilson NYK 34 .570 18.0 6.9 1.5 1.22 .528 14.7 5.6 1.6 .77
.78 Chandler,Tyson Dal 27 .704 15.2 13.3 .5 1.38 Cha .620 12.4 11.0 .4 .81
.77 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .529 24.5 4.5 7.1 1.77 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4 1.36
.75 Matthews,Wesley Por 29 .577 20.8 4.0 1.5 1.09 Uta .581 14.9 3.7 1.7 .62
.75 Augustin,D.J. Cha 35 .535 13.9 4.1 5.9 .96 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9 .55

.73 Horford,Al Atl 33 .600 21.1 11.7 3.1 1.91 .585 16.2 11.0 1.8 1.52
.72 Conley,Mike Mem 36 .528 15.2 3.3 6.1 1.03 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4 .67
.71 Brown,Shannon LAL 19 .594 21.4 4.6 2.1 1.31 .511 13.8 3.9 1.7 .63
.65 Martin,Kevin Hou 32 .609 27.7 3.6 2.4 1.54 .550 21.3 3.9 1.8 1.16
.64 Jones,James Mia 23 .673 13.9 4.2 1.1 .66 .549 10.5 3.4 1.0 .18

Figuring most readers have wider screens, I've slipped a few more columns in here. If anyone requests, I will issue a slimmer version.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 11:23 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Looking at VORP, Actual vs. Expected:

Code:
Tm Player PrVORP ReVORP VORP Delta
OKC Russell Westbrook 3.8 8.2 4.5
PHI Elton Brand 1.2 4.6 3.4
NYK Landry Fields 0.0 2.8 2.8
DAL Tyson Chandler 0.7 3.4 2.8
CHI Derrick Rose 3.7 6.4 2.6
LAL Pau Gasol 4.6 7.2 2.6
BOS Kevin Garnett 3.8 6.3 2.5
NJN Kris Humphries 0.2 2.6 2.4
LAL Lamar Odom 3.0 5.3 2.3
NYK Amare Stoudemire 3.1 5.4 2.3

BOS Ray Allen 2.0 4.3 2.3
UTA Deron Williams 6.0 8.2 2.2
BOS Glen Davis 0.5 2.6 2.2
MEM Rudy Gay 3.0 5.1 2.2
PHI Jrue Holiday 1.4 3.5 2.1
DAL Dirk Nowitzki 5.3 7.4 2.0
MIA James Jones 0.0 2.0 2.0
NYK Raymond Felton 2.8 4.8 2.0
NOH David West 3.0 4.9 1.9
SAS Tony Parker 3.4 5.3 1.9

CHI Joakim Noah 3.4 5.3 1.9
UTA Paul Millsap 3.9 5.8 1.9
DAL Jason Terry 1.7 3.6 1.9
HOU Luis Scola 2.3 4.2 1.9
SAS Manu Ginobili 4.5 6.3 1.9
BOS Paul Pierce 3.1 4.9 1.8
DEN Arron Afflalo 1.2 3.0 1.8
MEM Mike Conley 2.2 4.0 1.8
LAC Eric Gordon 2.1 3.8 1.7
IND Mike Dunleavy 1.0 2.7 1.7


My ASPM disagrees strongly with your evaluation of Eric Gordon. I don't even have him as good as Mike Conley this year!
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 11:46 am Post subject: Reply with quote
DSMok1 wrote:


My ASPM disagrees strongly with your evaluation of Eric Gordon. I don't even have him as good as Mike Conley this year!


Fight! Seriously, though, I think it's great when models disagree. That's when you actually learn something new. What's the cause here?
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Re: Most Improved 2010-11

Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:38 am
by Crow
page 2 of 4

Author Message
Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Feb 15, 2011 3:57 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
With the season 65% over.
Code:
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.67 Rose,Derrick Chi .532 26.7 4.6 8.0 1.95 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4 1.36
2.23 Gordon,Eric LAC .574 23.7 3.3 3.9 1.36 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2 .72
2.18 Holiday,Jrue Phi .513 15.2 4.4 6.4 1.08 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2 .56
2.17 Augustin,D.J. Cha .548 16.7 3.4 6.2 1.08 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9 .55
2.06 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal .577 13.8 3.5 2.8 .66 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7 -.36

1.94 Westbrook,Russel Okl .525 23.1 5.6 8.7 1.84 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8 1.42
1.74 Conley,Mike Mem .514 14.4 3.5 6.9 1.05 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4 .67
1.73 Sessions,Ramon Cle .536 16.0 4.3 6.2 1.06 Min .502 12.5 4.4 3.5 .49
1.67 Young,Nick Was .536 19.4 3.3 1.2 .89 .513 15.1 2.7 .9 .42
1.54 Chandler,Tyson Dal .693 15.3 13.0 .5 1.27 Cha .620 12.4 11.0 .4 .81

1.49 Parker,Tony SAS .568 21.2 3.6 8.1 1.56 .533 20.5 3.1 5.2 1.22
1.46 Martin,Kevin Hou .595 27.4 3.7 2.7 1.52 .550 21.3 3.9 1.8 1.16
1.27 Matthews,Wesley Por .552 18.6 3.7 2.1 .93 Uta .581 14.9 3.7 1.7 .62
1.14 Miles,C.J. Uta .504 18.0 5.1 2.5 1.13 .510 14.8 4.4 2.0 .72
1.12 Curry,Stephen GSW .586 19.9 3.9 5.7 1.29 .563 16.5 4.4 3.9 .98

eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.12 Brown,Kwame Cha .537 11.9 11.9 .7 .93 Det .454 7.5 10.4 .9 .36
1.10 Gibson,Daniel Cle .538 15.0 3.6 3.3 .78 .607 13.1 2.6 1.8 .40
1.10 Afflalo,Arron Den .630 13.3 4.2 2.7 .70 .571 11.9 4.4 1.7 .44
1.09 Brand,Elton Phi .557 17.1 9.6 1.5 1.31 .511 15.2 7.9 1.3 1.07
1.05 Battier,Shane Hou .560 9.9 6.0 3.1 .71 .534 8.7 5.5 2.1 .44

1.04 Chandler,Wilson NYK .541 16.2 6.3 1.9 1.02 .528 14.7 5.6 1.6 .77
1.03 Ellis,Monta GSW .531 21.3 3.1 4.4 1.25 .510 19.7 3.4 3.0 1.06
1.00 Odom,Lamar LAL .596 17.9 10.8 3.4 1.49 .525 12.8 11.5 2.9 1.28

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bchaikin



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 2:44 am Post subject: Reply with quote
The other day, I caught a bit on ESPN in which Greg Anthony and another guy were asked to name the 2 biggest improvers and disappointers in the league. One of the 2 most improved according to one expert was Amare' Stoudemire, and the other guy picked Raymond Felton.

felton he is getting more touches in new york, and his pts/g and ast/g are way up...

but he's shooting overall the same, is rebounding worse, blocking fewer shots, and - went from being the starting PG on the league's best defensive team to the starting PG on the league's currently 9th worst team defensively...

how much of that drop in defense is due to him?...
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:39 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Last year's Knicks were 27th; this year they've risen to 21st. The Bobcats have dropped from 1st to 14th this year.
If this were all due to one moving player, he'd be an elite defensive player.

In Charlotte, Felton cut down his 3FGA every year for 4 years. By last year, his FG% had risen to .456. His 3fg% was up to .385.
This year, career high 3FGA rates, but down to .331 accuracy. Total FG% down to .424.

Last year, he averaged 17.6 Pts/48 while the rest of the NBA managed 93.8 (vs Cha) . That's .188 of what opponents scored.
This year, the ratio is 21.5 to 106.1, or .203 .

From somewhat below average to barely average as a scorer, an increase of 8%.
As the Knicks' designated passer, his Ast% is up 25%, from .295 to .368.
TO% is up only 9%.
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:59 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Felton looked great early but has regressed since the first couple of months. That someone would say he's one of the most improved shows two things: 1) people are too quick to make judgements and 2) slower to change them once new data are available.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:28 am Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:
Felton looked great early but has regressed since the first couple of months. ...

That's about right. On Dec. 27, he appeared at the bottom of the top 21, and his eW/484 was at 1.30 .
I've now got him at 1.22 . Compared to last year's 1.08, his improvement is only 64% as great as it was after 2 months.

His numbers (PER, WS/48, e484) are steady since a Jan. 29 report, above (p.2).
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:43 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I've been noticing an unusual number of point guards in the most improved lists, and I worry that it's just that eWins has an improved value for assists this year.
But the magnitude of the improvement seems too large still. Looking for corroboration or rebuttal, here are last year's top 15 Ast% among point guards, and other relevant numbers last year and this year.
Code:
PER Ast% Usg% WS/48 e484
2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011

Nash 21.6 23.6 50.9 54.7 22.9 23.0 .178 .195 1.56 1.64
Paul 23.7 25.0 45.4 46.6 22.2 21.2 .204 .263 1.72 1.78
DWilliams 20.6 22.2 44.5 43.9 23.8 26.4 .177 .167 1.74 1.69
Rondo 19.1 18.3 43.7 49.8 20.2 18.1 .156 .149 1.42 1.39
BDavis 17.4 17.4 39.6 40.9 24.3 23.7 .086 .092 1.23 1.27

Westbrook 17.8 23.9 38.6 43.7 25.7 31.1 .105 .160 1.42 1.84
Kidd 17.2 14.8 36.4 36.0 14.5 15.2 .148 .108 1.17 1.08
Harris 16.2 18.0 34.6 42.7 25.5 24.6 .057 .103 1.09 1.23
Calderon 16.5 16.5 33.8 42.6 17.9 16.9 .111 .091 .90 1.03
Collison 16.5 15.7 32.9 28.0 23.1 22.7 .067 .086 .92 1.11

Parker 16.4 20.7 30.9 35.9 25.8 24.6 .101 .177 1.22 1.56
AMiller 18.1 18.8 30.3 38.1 23.8 21.2 .134 .132 1.32 1.33
Rose 18.6 22.8 30.3 40.5 27.2 31.6 .100 .187 1.36 1.95
Jennings 14.5 15.4 29.6 28.3 26.1 26.3 .075 .075 1.20 1.24
Felton 15.2 17.4 29.5 36.8 19.2 22.5 .118 .099 1.08 1.22

avg 18.0 19.4 36.7 40.6 22.8 23.3 .121 .139 1.29 1.42
2011/10 PER 1.08 Ast% 1.10 Usg% 1.02 WS/48 1.15 e484 1.11
Normally, one year's leaders in any statistic will regress to the mean in the following year. Yet last year's Ast% leaders are up by an average of 10% in that stat, and other stats are similarly improved.

Was there a rule change that allows PGs to have some kind of advantage over previous seasons?
Are they just better distributed this year? Collison, Felton, Calderon, Rose, are now the sole PGs on their teams?
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Crow



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:55 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Interesting find and question.

I'd like to see EZPM, ASPM and Adjusted +/- too
and ideally adjusted by an aging curve.

Doesn't offense tend to get a bit better at the end of the season too?

Any positions that declined? I'll throw out a guess out there that center would be the best one to check for possible decline.
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:01 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
point guard cabal?
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Crow



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:14 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I think the list has 9 younger guys and 6 older ones so some y-t-y improvement might be expected.


Paul maybe got more healthy.
BDavis maybe got more healthy and got Griffin.
Westbrook and Rose went with big usage increases.
Felton got to run with D'Antoni and Amare S.


If the top 30 showed a similar increase it would strengthen the case for some change in the way the game is being played.
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 8:38 am Post subject: Reply with quote
OK, using this search page -- http://bkref.com/tiny/HEypT
Players (guards) with at least 20 Ast% and at least 182 assists both last year and this year.
100 such player seasons from 2010 and 2011, and 38 guards who appear for both years.
Here they are, youngest to oldest, using b-r.com age for this season:
Code:
Age '10 '11 PER AST% USG% WS/48
Holiday 20 PHI PHI 12.3 15.2 24.4 28.6 18.4 21.0 .032 .089
Evans 21 SAC SAC 18.2 14.8 26.1 24.7 26.2 25.7 .097 .042
Rose 22 CHI CHI 18.6 22.8 30.3 40.5 27.2 31.6 .100 .187
Curry 22 GSW GSW 16.3 20.1 24.6 29.1 21.8 24.2 .077 .139
Westbrook 22 OKC OKC 17.8 23.9 38.6 43.7 25.7 31.1 .105 .160

Augustin 23 CHA CHA 11.2 16.3 21.7 31.8 17.9 20.1 .092 .131
Lawson 23 DEN DEN 16.5 16.5 24.2 24.8 18.0 19.5 .136 .116
Conley 23 MEM MEM 13.9 15.9 24.8 28.6 18.4 19.2 .074 .112
Collison 23 NOH IND 16.5 15.4 32.9 28.2 23.1 22.6 .067 .082

Age '10 '11 PER AST% USG% WS/48
Rondo 24 BOS BOS 19.1 18.3 43.7 49.5 20.2 17.9 .156 .150
Stuckey 24 DET DET 15.6 17.6 24.7 25.7 26.4 25.2 .052 .100
Lowry 24 HOU HOU 15.5 15.6 27.7 29.0 18.6 17.8 .126 .108
Sessions 24 MIN CLE 12.9 19.0 23.3 35.9 19.9 22.5 .031 .104
L Williams 24 PHI PHI 18.2 18.8 22.9 24.1 21.1 27.6 .130 .140

Ellis 25 GSW GSW 16.7 19.1 21.2 22.7 29.4 28.7 .023 .094
Paul 25 NOH NOH 23.7 24.6 45.4 45.9 22.2 21.1 .204 .255

Felton 26 CHA NYK 15.2 17.3 29.5 37.0 19.2 22.5 .118 .098
Barea 26 DAL DAL 12.8 14.3 26.1 28.5 19.9 23.4 .069 .086
D Williams 26 UTA UTA 20.6 22.1 44.5 43.9 23.8 26.3 .177 .166

Age '10 '11 PER AST% USG% WS/48
Harris 27 NJN NJN 16.2 18.0 34.6 42.6 25.5 24.6 .057 .104
Iguodala 27 PHI PHI 17.8 17.8 23.7 25.8 21.8 19.0 .101 .142

MoWilliams 28 CLE CLE 16.1 13.8 25.0 43.0 22.0 26.0 .136 -.015
Nelson 28 ORL ORL 15.5 15.1 32.1 34.9 22.3 21.2 .130 .142
Udrih 28 SAC SAC 15.7 15.3 24.1 20.0 18.6 17.0 .107 .123
Parker 28 SAS SAS 16.4 20.7 30.9 35.9 25.8 24.6 .101 .177

J Johnson 29 ATL ATL 19.3 18.3 22.0 27.3 26.3 26.8 .140 .117
Wade 29 MIA MIA 28.0 25.0 36.4 22.7 34.9 31.7 .224 .212
Ridnour 29 MIL MIN 17.7 15.6 31.9 29.2 22.0 17.4 .168 .105
Calderon 29 TOR TOR 16.5 16.4 33.8 42.9 17.9 16.8 .111 .089
Arenas 29 WAS TOT 18.7 11.7 36.3 28.7 31.9 25.6 .072 .016

Age '10 '11 PER AST% USG% WS/48
Hinrich 30 CHI WAS 11.6 13.6 20.5 22.9 16.6 17.3 .077 .077
B Davis 31 LAC LAC 17.4 17.1 39.6 40.4 24.3 23.6 .086 .088
Kobe 32 LAL LAL 21.9 24.0 23.8 26.6 32.3 34.3 .160 .181
Ginobili 33 SAS SAS 22.5 21.9 28.2 25.8 25.8 26.0 .216 .209

Billups 34 DEN DEN 20.2 18.8 26.1 25.5 24.3 21.5 .182 .157
A Miller 34 POR POR 18.1 18.8 30.3 37.9 23.8 21.2 .134 .132
Nash 36 PHO PHO 21.6 23.6 50.9 54.7 22.9 23.0 .178 .195
Kidd 37 DAL DAL 17.2 15.1 36.4 35.7 14.5 15.2 .148 .114

averages 17.4 18.1 30.1 32.8 22.9 23.2 .116 .124
2011/2010 PER 1.043 Ast% 1.089 Usg% 1.011 WS/48 1.075
The average change is not far off that of the leaders. Jennings misses the cut here, with fewer than 182 assists this year.
Dividing roughly into fourths (where the column headers appear above), averages by age grouping:
Code:
Age ss PER AST% USG% WS/48
20-23 9 15.7 17.9 27.5 31.1 21.9 23.9 .087 .118
24-26 10 17.0 18.7 30.9 34.2 22.1 23.3 .109 .130
27-29 11 18.0 17.1 30.1 32.1 24.5 22.8 .122 .110
30-37 8 18.8 19.1 32.0 33.7 23.1 22.8 .148 .144
What led me to investigate whether this PG upsurge is just a wave of good young PG (that's part of it) was the impression that some older PG's are still improving.
And according to PER and WS, the older the better!
The middle-aged group is the only one in decline (but not by Ast%). Note that no one age 29 has improved.

Any theories?
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:46 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Indeed, breaking the 38 into thirds -- shifting 29 YO to the oldest group, 24's to the youngest -- an age progression is seen.
Code:
Age ss PER AST% USG% WS/48
20-24 14 15.9 17.9 27.9 31.7 21.6 23.3 .091 .119
25-28 11 17.0 18.0 30.6 34.6 22.8 23.1 .111 .125
29-37 13 19.3 18.5 32.0 32.3 24.4 23.1 .146 .130
ss is sample size.
Note the shift in Usg%, last year to this year.
The 29+ players have dropped about as much as the 25-28s have improved.
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Crow



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 12:40 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
You've captured a lot of the detail about performance vs age. The Adjusted +/- averages by age block would be another element.

The 29 years olds... will any of them get another big contract? Unlikely. But that would be true of most older too. Only 2 between 27-29 improved on PER. Maybe the impact of contract status hits around 27-29 and then maybe end of career competitive fire often overrides it later? Some of these guys get stuck on teams after a good era at least for awhile. I don't know if it is more than normal, but it might be.
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iamawesomer



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:16 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Are the nba scorers more friendlier in general in handing out assists this year compared to last?
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:35 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
iamawesomer wrote:
Are the nba scorers more friendlier in general in handing out assists this year compared to last?


More assists per FGM this year than the last two, but less than the two years before that ( http://www.hoopdata.com/teamoffstats.as ... 07&type=pg )
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:52 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
This year, home Ast/FG is .590, and away it's .565. Total .578
This is up a notch from last year : .578 at home, .548 away, and .563 overall.

Last year, however, was the lowest Ast/FG ratio since 1977.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

This year's ratio is 2.9% higher than last year's.
This is not quite 1/3 of the +8.9% observed in top-38 playmakers' Ast%.
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Re: Most Improved 2010-11

Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:39 am
by Crow
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:28 am Post subject: Reply with quote
EvanZ wrote:
Felton looked great early but has regressed since the first couple of months. ...

That's about right. On Dec. 27, he appeared at the bottom of the top 21, and his eW/484 was at 1.30 .
I've now got him at 1.22 . Compared to last year's 1.08, his improvement is only 64% as great as it was after 2 months.

His numbers (PER, WS/48, e484) are steady since a Jan. 29 report, above (p.2).
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:43 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I've been noticing an unusual number of point guards in the most improved lists, and I worry that it's just that eWins has an improved value for assists this year.
But the magnitude of the improvement seems too large still. Looking for corroboration or rebuttal, here are last year's top 15 Ast% among point guards, and other relevant numbers last year and this year.
Code:
PER Ast% Usg% WS/48 e484
2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011

Nash 21.6 23.6 50.9 54.7 22.9 23.0 .178 .195 1.56 1.64
Paul 23.7 25.0 45.4 46.6 22.2 21.2 .204 .263 1.72 1.78
DWilliams 20.6 22.2 44.5 43.9 23.8 26.4 .177 .167 1.74 1.69
Rondo 19.1 18.3 43.7 49.8 20.2 18.1 .156 .149 1.42 1.39
BDavis 17.4 17.4 39.6 40.9 24.3 23.7 .086 .092 1.23 1.27

Westbrook 17.8 23.9 38.6 43.7 25.7 31.1 .105 .160 1.42 1.84
Kidd 17.2 14.8 36.4 36.0 14.5 15.2 .148 .108 1.17 1.08
Harris 16.2 18.0 34.6 42.7 25.5 24.6 .057 .103 1.09 1.23
Calderon 16.5 16.5 33.8 42.6 17.9 16.9 .111 .091 .90 1.03
Collison 16.5 15.7 32.9 28.0 23.1 22.7 .067 .086 .92 1.11

Parker 16.4 20.7 30.9 35.9 25.8 24.6 .101 .177 1.22 1.56
AMiller 18.1 18.8 30.3 38.1 23.8 21.2 .134 .132 1.32 1.33
Rose 18.6 22.8 30.3 40.5 27.2 31.6 .100 .187 1.36 1.95
Jennings 14.5 15.4 29.6 28.3 26.1 26.3 .075 .075 1.20 1.24
Felton 15.2 17.4 29.5 36.8 19.2 22.5 .118 .099 1.08 1.22

avg 18.0 19.4 36.7 40.6 22.8 23.3 .121 .139 1.29 1.42
2011/10 PER 1.08 Ast% 1.10 Usg% 1.02 WS/48 1.15 e484 1.11
Normally, one year's leaders in any statistic will regress to the mean in the following year. Yet last year's Ast% leaders are up by an average of 10% in that stat, and other stats are similarly improved.

Was there a rule change that allows PGs to have some kind of advantage over previous seasons?
Are they just better distributed this year? Collison, Felton, Calderon, Rose, are now the sole PGs on their teams?
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Crow



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 7:55 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Interesting find and question.

I'd like to see EZPM, ASPM and Adjusted +/- too
and ideally adjusted by an aging curve.

Doesn't offense tend to get a bit better at the end of the season too?

Any positions that declined? I'll throw out a guess out there that center would be the best one to check for possible decline.
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:01 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
point guard cabal?
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Crow



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 16, 2011 9:14 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I think the list has 9 younger guys and 6 older ones so some y-t-y improvement might be expected.


Paul maybe got more healthy.
BDavis maybe got more healthy and got Griffin.
Westbrook and Rose went with big usage increases.
Felton got to run with D'Antoni and Amare S.


If the top 30 showed a similar increase it would strengthen the case for some change in the way the game is being played.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 8:38 am Post subject: Reply with quote
OK, using this search page -- http://bkref.com/tiny/HEypT
Players (guards) with at least 20 Ast% and at least 182 assists both last year and this year.
100 such player seasons from 2010 and 2011, and 38 guards who appear for both years.
Here they are, youngest to oldest, using b-r.com age for this season:
Code:
Age '10 '11 PER AST% USG% WS/48
Holiday 20 PHI PHI 12.3 15.2 24.4 28.6 18.4 21.0 .032 .089
Evans 21 SAC SAC 18.2 14.8 26.1 24.7 26.2 25.7 .097 .042
Rose 22 CHI CHI 18.6 22.8 30.3 40.5 27.2 31.6 .100 .187
Curry 22 GSW GSW 16.3 20.1 24.6 29.1 21.8 24.2 .077 .139
Westbrook 22 OKC OKC 17.8 23.9 38.6 43.7 25.7 31.1 .105 .160

Augustin 23 CHA CHA 11.2 16.3 21.7 31.8 17.9 20.1 .092 .131
Lawson 23 DEN DEN 16.5 16.5 24.2 24.8 18.0 19.5 .136 .116
Conley 23 MEM MEM 13.9 15.9 24.8 28.6 18.4 19.2 .074 .112
Collison 23 NOH IND 16.5 15.4 32.9 28.2 23.1 22.6 .067 .082

Age '10 '11 PER AST% USG% WS/48
Rondo 24 BOS BOS 19.1 18.3 43.7 49.5 20.2 17.9 .156 .150
Stuckey 24 DET DET 15.6 17.6 24.7 25.7 26.4 25.2 .052 .100
Lowry 24 HOU HOU 15.5 15.6 27.7 29.0 18.6 17.8 .126 .108
Sessions 24 MIN CLE 12.9 19.0 23.3 35.9 19.9 22.5 .031 .104
L Williams 24 PHI PHI 18.2 18.8 22.9 24.1 21.1 27.6 .130 .140

Ellis 25 GSW GSW 16.7 19.1 21.2 22.7 29.4 28.7 .023 .094
Paul 25 NOH NOH 23.7 24.6 45.4 45.9 22.2 21.1 .204 .255

Felton 26 CHA NYK 15.2 17.3 29.5 37.0 19.2 22.5 .118 .098
Barea 26 DAL DAL 12.8 14.3 26.1 28.5 19.9 23.4 .069 .086
D Williams 26 UTA UTA 20.6 22.1 44.5 43.9 23.8 26.3 .177 .166

Age '10 '11 PER AST% USG% WS/48
Harris 27 NJN NJN 16.2 18.0 34.6 42.6 25.5 24.6 .057 .104
Iguodala 27 PHI PHI 17.8 17.8 23.7 25.8 21.8 19.0 .101 .142

MoWilliams 28 CLE CLE 16.1 13.8 25.0 43.0 22.0 26.0 .136 -.015
Nelson 28 ORL ORL 15.5 15.1 32.1 34.9 22.3 21.2 .130 .142
Udrih 28 SAC SAC 15.7 15.3 24.1 20.0 18.6 17.0 .107 .123
Parker 28 SAS SAS 16.4 20.7 30.9 35.9 25.8 24.6 .101 .177

J Johnson 29 ATL ATL 19.3 18.3 22.0 27.3 26.3 26.8 .140 .117
Wade 29 MIA MIA 28.0 25.0 36.4 22.7 34.9 31.7 .224 .212
Ridnour 29 MIL MIN 17.7 15.6 31.9 29.2 22.0 17.4 .168 .105
Calderon 29 TOR TOR 16.5 16.4 33.8 42.9 17.9 16.8 .111 .089
Arenas 29 WAS TOT 18.7 11.7 36.3 28.7 31.9 25.6 .072 .016

Age '10 '11 PER AST% USG% WS/48
Hinrich 30 CHI WAS 11.6 13.6 20.5 22.9 16.6 17.3 .077 .077
B Davis 31 LAC LAC 17.4 17.1 39.6 40.4 24.3 23.6 .086 .088
Kobe 32 LAL LAL 21.9 24.0 23.8 26.6 32.3 34.3 .160 .181
Ginobili 33 SAS SAS 22.5 21.9 28.2 25.8 25.8 26.0 .216 .209

Billups 34 DEN DEN 20.2 18.8 26.1 25.5 24.3 21.5 .182 .157
A Miller 34 POR POR 18.1 18.8 30.3 37.9 23.8 21.2 .134 .132
Nash 36 PHO PHO 21.6 23.6 50.9 54.7 22.9 23.0 .178 .195
Kidd 37 DAL DAL 17.2 15.1 36.4 35.7 14.5 15.2 .148 .114

averages 17.4 18.1 30.1 32.8 22.9 23.2 .116 .124
2011/2010 PER 1.043 Ast% 1.089 Usg% 1.011 WS/48 1.075
The average change is not far off that of the leaders. Jennings misses the cut here, with fewer than 182 assists this year.
Dividing roughly into fourths (where the column headers appear above), averages by age grouping:
Code:
Age ss PER AST% USG% WS/48
20-23 9 15.7 17.9 27.5 31.1 21.9 23.9 .087 .118
24-26 10 17.0 18.7 30.9 34.2 22.1 23.3 .109 .130
27-29 11 18.0 17.1 30.1 32.1 24.5 22.8 .122 .110
30-37 8 18.8 19.1 32.0 33.7 23.1 22.8 .148 .144
What led me to investigate whether this PG upsurge is just a wave of good young PG (that's part of it) was the impression that some older PG's are still improving.
And according to PER and WS, the older the better!
The middle-aged group is the only one in decline (but not by Ast%). Note that no one age 29 has improved.

Any theories?
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:46 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Indeed, breaking the 38 into thirds -- shifting 29 YO to the oldest group, 24's to the youngest -- an age progression is seen.
Code:
Age ss PER AST% USG% WS/48
20-24 14 15.9 17.9 27.9 31.7 21.6 23.3 .091 .119
25-28 11 17.0 18.0 30.6 34.6 22.8 23.1 .111 .125
29-37 13 19.3 18.5 32.0 32.3 24.4 23.1 .146 .130
ss is sample size.
Note the shift in Usg%, last year to this year.
The 29+ players have dropped about as much as the 25-28s have improved.
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Crow



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 12:40 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
You've captured a lot of the detail about performance vs age. The Adjusted +/- averages by age block would be another element.

The 29 years olds... will any of them get another big contract? Unlikely. But that would be true of most older too. Only 2 between 27-29 improved on PER. Maybe the impact of contract status hits around 27-29 and then maybe end of career competitive fire often overrides it later? Some of these guys get stuck on teams after a good era at least for awhile. I don't know if it is more than normal, but it might be.
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iamawesomer



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:16 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Are the nba scorers more friendlier in general in handing out assists this year compared to last?
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:35 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
iamawesomer wrote:
Are the nba scorers more friendlier in general in handing out assists this year compared to last?


More assists per FGM this year than the last two, but less than the two years before that ( http://www.hoopdata.com/teamoffstats.as ... 07&type=pg )
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 17, 2011 1:52 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
This year, home Ast/FG is .590, and away it's .565. Total .578
This is up a notch from last year : .578 at home, .548 away, and .563 overall.

Last year, however, was the lowest Ast/FG ratio since 1977.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

This year's ratio is 2.9% higher than last year's.
This is not quite 1/3 of the +8.9% observed in top-38 playmakers' Ast%.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Sat Feb 19, 2011 10:32 am Post subject: Reply with quote
If guards are universally getting more assists this year, someone must be getting less.
Applying to forwards the standards of >40 Ast and >10 Ast% this year and last year, there are 98 player-seasons. 37 forwards qualify both last year and this year.
Of the 37, 22 (60%) have higher ast% this season.

23 of 37 with >10 Ast% and >1.1 Ast/G have higher Ast% this year.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 09, 2011 8:03 am Post subject: Reply with quote
These updates are a lot more work with all the players being traded.
Early front runner Eric Gordon has run into injuries.
Code:
eW+ 2010-11 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 09-10 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
3.32 Rose,Derrick Chi .526 27.0 4.6 8.1 2.01 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4 1.36
2.64 Holiday,Jrue Phi .516 15.2 4.4 6.4 1.12 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2 .56
2.43 Augustin,D.J. Cha .546 16.9 3.4 6.1 1.08 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9 .55
2.39 Conley,Mike Mem .526 15.1 3.5 6.9 1.14 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4 .67
2.36 Gordon,Eric LAC .572 23.8 3.3 3.9 1.40 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2 .72

2.32 Westbrook,Russel Okl .527 23.5 5.3 8.8 1.88 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8 1.42
2.17 Sessions,Ramon Cle .535 16.4 4.1 6.3 1.11 Min .502 12.5 4.4 3.5 .49
2.00 Young,Nick Was .542 19.6 3.3 1.2 .91 .513 15.1 2.7 .9 .42
1.99 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal .561 13.0 3.4 2.6 .58 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7 -.36
1.73 Martin,Kevin Hou .591 26.9 3.9 2.8 1.55 .550 21.3 3.9 1.8 1.16

eW+ 2010-11 tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 09-10 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.65 Parker,Tony SAS .560 21.1 3.7 8.1 1.59 .533 20.5 3.1 5.2 1.22
1.63 Matthews,Wesley Por .560 18.4 3.8 2.2 .96 Uta .581 14.9 3.7 1.7 .62
1.60 Chandler,Tyson Dal .679 15.1 13.2 .5 1.26 Cha .620 12.4 11.0 .4 .81
1.37 Curry,Stephen GSW .592 20.0 4.0 5.7 1.31 .563 16.5 4.4 3.9 .98
1.32 Love,Kevin Min .583 20.1 16.3 2.2 1.87 .537 16.6 14.1 1.9 1.65

1.29 Afflalo,Arron Den .619 13.5 4.2 2.7 .71 .571 11.9 4.4 1.7 .44
1.25 Ellis,Monta GSW .527 21.4 3.1 4.3 1.27 .510 19.7 3.4 3.0 1.06
1.24 Brand,Elton Phi .555 17.1 9.7 1.5 1.32 .511 15.2 7.9 1.3 1.07
1.22 Hayes,Chuck Hou .569 10.0 10.6 3.4 1.06 .494 7.0 10.2 2.2 .69
1.19 Brown,Kwame Cha .515 11.2 11.4 .7 .85 Det .454 7.5 10.4 .9 .36
1.18 Young,Thaddeus Phi .574 17.5 7.2 1.4 1.12 .517 15.2 6.4 1.2 .79
1.18 Arthur,Darrell Mem .538 15.8 7.8 .9 1.00 .444 9.3 9.1 .8 .57
Battier was near the bottom of the list, just based on his Houston minutes. He's not done as well in Memphis (6 G), but he'd be somewhere in the 18-20 ranking.
Players with split seasons last year (Stevenson Was/Dal, Martin Sac/Hou) show full season rates from 2009-10.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2011 7:33 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Seeing this list still dominated by guards -- PG's especially -- may as well break them out by position, and do totals by position.
Code:
eW+ point G eW+ shooting G
3.32 Rose,Derrick 2.36 Gordon,Eric
2.64 Holiday,Jrue 2.00 Young,Nick
2.43 Augustin,D.J. 1.99 Stevenson,Deshaw
2.39 Conley,Mike 1.73 Martin,Kevin
2.32 Westbrook,Russel 1.63 Matthews,Wesley
2.17 Sessions,Ramon 1.29 Afflalo,Arron
1.65 Parker,Tony 1.25 Ellis,Monta
1.37 Curry,Stephen 1.11 Derozan,Demar
1.08 Lowry,Kyle . . .
. . . -1.10 Arenas,Gilbert
-.67 Robinson,Nate -1.28 Roy,Brandon
-.75 Evans,Tyreke -1.32 Crawford,Jamal
-.91 Billups,Chauncey -2.01 Bell,Raja
-1.29 Ridnour,Luke -2.61 Wade,Dwyane

27.75 total PG 12.78 total SG

Showing just players with more than 1 win added (or lost) relative to last year's win-producing rates (in this season's minutes played).
A few extras to optimize space.

In a strange progression from smallest players to largest, the positions which have a net negative loss of contributions:
Code:
eW+ small F eW+ power F eW+ Center
1.20 Battier,Shane 1.32 Love,Kevin 1.60 Chandler,Tyson
1.18 Young,Thaddeus 1.24 Brand,Elton 1.22 Hayes,Chuck
1.13 Miles,C.J. 1.18 Arthur,Darrell 1.19 Brown,Kwame
1.10 Gay,Rudy .95 Odom,Lamar .75 Horford,Al
1.07 Chandler,Wilson .90 Davis,Glen . . .
. . . . . . -1.02 Haywood,Brendan
-1.36 Granger,Danny -.89 Nowitzki,Dirk -1.09 Howard,Dwight
-1.44 Batum,Nicolas -1.08 Boozer,Carlos -1.19 Dalembert,Samuel
-1.68 Wallace,Gerald -1.15 Harrington,Al -1.33 Gasol,Marc
-3.11 Durant,Kevin -2.63 Lee,David -2.14 Bogut,Andrew
-3.65 James,Lebron -3.20 Bosh,Chris -2.24 Duncan,Tim

-4.55 total SF -6.59 total PF -10.23 total C

Is there a sea change in the NBA? Are bigs becoming obsolete?
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Philosopher



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2011 11:10 am Post subject: Reply with quote
It's my understanding that eW is not a rate stat -- it doesn't adjust at all for the # of minutes/games played.

Accordingly, some of the players who lost eW are due to injury, such as Boozer and Nowitzki. If you adjusted for the # of minutes played, you would get very different result
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2011 1:54 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Philosopher wrote:
It's my understanding that eW is not a rate stat -- it doesn't adjust at all for the # of minutes/games played.

Accordingly, some of the players who lost eW are due to injury, such as Boozer and Nowitzki. If you adjusted for the # of minutes played, you would get very different results.

Not so -- eWins is productivity (per minute) * minutes.
As stated above --
Quote:
... players with more than 1 win added (or lost) relative to last year's win-producing rates (in this season's minutes played).


Boozer's eWins per 484 minutes are down from 2.23 last year to 1.86 this year. His eW+ is therefore :
(1.86-2.23)*Min/484 = (-.37)*1422/484 = -1.08

If he were as good this year as he was last year, after 1422 minutes from him, the Bulls could expect to have 1.08 more wins.

If he'd played more minutes at 1.86 eW/484, his eW would be even more reduced from last year.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 7:25 am Post subject: Reply with quote
With the season 93.3% completed, no one can challenge Rose.
The top 6 improvers, and 9 of the top 17, are point guards.
Code:
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2010: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
4.59 Rose,Derrick Chi .535 28.2 4.5 8.1 2.11 .525 21.3 3.8 4.4 1.36
3.41 Holiday,Jrue Phi .521 15.4 4.4 6.6 1.14 .522 12.2 4.2 4.2 .56
2.91 Westbrook,Russel Okl .524 23.7 5.2 9.0 1.91 .482 17.2 5.5 6.8 1.42
2.84 Augustin,D.J. Cha .538 16.7 3.4 6.0 1.07 .507 12.9 2.5 3.9 .55
2.78 Conley,Mike Mem .514 14.9 3.5 6.9 1.14 .519 13.4 3.0 4.4 .67

2.75 Sessions,Ramon Cle .535 17.1 4.4 6.1 1.14 Min .502 12.5 4.4 3.5 .49
2.37 Gordon,Eric LAC .564 22.7 3.1 3.8 1.29 .560 17.4 2.8 2.2 .72
2.09 Stevenson,Deshaw Dal .540 12.3 3.6 2.6 .54 .377 4.2 3.8 1.7 -.36
2.06 Martin,Kevin Hou .590 26.9 3.8 2.8 1.54 .550 21.3 3.9 1.8 1.16
1.97 Matthews,Wesley Por .567 18.4 3.8 2.2 .97 Uta .581 14.9 3.7 1.7 .62

eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2010: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.87 Chandler,Tyson Dal .670 14.6 13.1 .6 1.25 Cha .620 12.4 11.0 .4 .81
1.85 Parker,Tony SAS .560 21.3 3.6 7.8 1.56 .533 20.5 3.1 5.2 1.22
1.85 Young,Nick Was .531 18.9 3.2 1.2 .84 .513 15.1 2.7 .9 .42
1.76 Hayes,Chuck Hou .551 10.2 10.9 3.7 1.11 .494 7.0 10.2 2.2 .69
1.72 Ellis,Monta GSW .527 21.2 3.3 4.6 1.31 .510 19.7 3.4 3.0 1.06

1.66 Lowry,Kyle Hou .546 14.5 4.7 7.4 1.22 .522 13.3 5.5 4.9 .92
1.61 Curry,Stephen GSW .584 19.8 4.2 5.7 1.29 .563 16.5 4.4 3.9 .98
1.51 Arthur,Darrell Mem .537 16.1 7.9 1.0 1.03 .444 9.3 9.1 .8 .57
1.50 Young,Thaddeus Phi .562 17.5 7.4 1.4 1.13 .517 15.2 6.4 1.2 .79
1.49 Derozan,Demar Tor .523 17.0 4.3 1.7 .85 .544 13.8 5.3 .8 .59
Surprisingly, the league's returning players total -9.2 eWins relative to last year.
LeBron, Bosh and Wade total -11.6 .
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2011 5:25 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Over at http://www.basketballprospectus.com/art ... cleid=1635
there may be a discussion of Most Improved, but you have to pay $20 to read past this (or to leave a comment) --

Quote:
The NBA's Most Improved Player award often goes to someone whose points per game increased significantly from the previous year. It seems all other factors are secondary.

To name just a few examples, players like Marcin Gortat (3.6 points per game last season to 9.8 points per game this season), Jodie Meeks (4.7 to 10.6) and Dorell Wright (7.1 to 16.2) have garnered MIP consideration this year. But a closer examination indicates their actual improvement may be overrated.

Gortat's points per game have increased 172 percent, but his scoring attempts* per game have increased 221 percent.

Meeks' points per game have increased 126 percent, but his scoring attempts* per game have increased 375 percent.

These opening lines are apparently teasers, to make us want to read more. Those asterisks must be powerful.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2011 1:34 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
So, does anyone know how to get hold of these Prospectus folks?
If a player's TS% has gone up, it's not possible for his attempts to increase by a greater % than his points have increased.

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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2011 1:54 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Philosopher wrote:
It's my understanding that eW is not a rate stat -- it doesn't adjust at all for the # of minutes/games played.

Accordingly, some of the players who lost eW are due to injury, such as Boozer and Nowitzki. If you adjusted for the # of minutes played, you would get very different results.

Not so -- eWins is productivity (per minute) * minutes.
As stated above --
Quote:
... players with more than 1 win added (or lost) relative to last year's win-producing rates (in this season's minutes played).


Boozer's eWins per 484 minutes are down from 2.23 last year to 1.86 this year. His eW+ is therefore :
(1.86-2.23)*Min/484 = (-.37)*1422/484 = -1.08

If he were as good this year as he was last year, after 1422 minutes from him, the Bulls could expect to have 1.08 more wins.

If he'd played more minutes at 1.86 eW/484, his eW would be even more reduced from last year.
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