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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Fri Nov 19, 2010 4:53 am Post subject: 2010-11 eWins leaders Reply with quote
After 10-12 games per team, eWins projected to the full season, assuming everyone continues playing the same fraction of team minutes that they have been playing.

Per-36-minute rates are relative to 100 points and 44 rebounds per game (by opponents). e484 is eWins per 484 minutes, in which 1.00 represents average productivity.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
16.1 Paul,Chris NO 34 .603 23.4 6.2 10.9 3.1 2.5 .1 2.82
14.8 Howard,Dwight Orl 33 .561 28.3 13.8 1.7 1.2 3.7 3.2 2.66
14.7 James,Lebron Mia 38 .530 24.4 5.9 8.9 1.8 4.1 .8 2.30
14.4 Gasol,Pau LAL 39 .579 21.5 11.3 3.3 .7 1.7 1.5 2.16
13.7 Wade,Dwyane Mia 35 .573 30.3 6.9 3.5 1.4 3.6 1.1 2.32

13.2 Millsap,Paul Uta 37 .636 23.7 9.6 2.4 1.2 1.5 .6 2.10
13.0 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .532 25.5 3.9 7.9 1.2 4.0 .7 2.04
12.9 Scola,Luis Hou 35 .562 23.7 10.8 2.2 1.1 1.5 1.0 2.17
12.6 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .540 28.9 6.6 4.8 1.1 3.5 .2 2.24
12.6 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .556 22.7 6.0 6.7 2.1 3.6 .7 1.96

12.4 Horford,Al Atl 31 .662 23.6 11.8 3.5 .6 1.6 .9 2.35
12.3 Anthony,Carmelo Den 37 .551 24.1 9.4 2.5 1.4 3.0 .8 1.93
12.2 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 36 .597 27.5 9.2 1.6 .2 2.9 .7 2.00
11.7 Williams,Deron Uta 40 .569 21.8 4.7 8.2 .8 3.6 .2 1.74
11.7 Ellis,Monta GS 39 .576 25.6 3.9 3.7 2.4 3.1 .2 1.75

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
11.3 Smith,Josh Atl 35 .560 18.1 11.4 3.7 1.3 3.2 3.5 1.91
11.2 Hibbert,Roy Ind 31 .512 19.9 13.2 3.7 .5 3.3 3.4 2.12
11.0 Durant,Kevin Okl 41 .540 24.5 6.5 2.0 1.2 3.5 .9 1.57
10.9 Noah,Joakim Chi 38 .593 16.7 13.4 1.7 1.0 2.4 1.7 1.68
10.7 Garnett,Kevin Bos 35 .522 17.9 13.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 .7 1.83

10.6 Gay,Rudy Mem 42 .573 20.5 6.5 2.1 1.4 1.9 .7 1.48
10.6 Ginobili,Manu SA 33 .623 26.8 3.6 4.5 2.0 3.5 .6 1.90
10.6 Nash,Steve Phx 34 .587 22.4 4.5 8.8 1.1 4.2 .1 1.86
10.6 Parker,Tony SA 34 .554 21.0 4.0 7.6 2.4 3.1 .0 1.82
10.5 Love,Kevin Min 31 .506 20.6 17.2 1.5 .6 3.4 .6 2.02

10.3 Rondo,Rajon Bos 41 .474 10.1 5.4 12.1 2.4 3.4 .2 1.48
10.2 Pierce,Paul Bos 38 .616 23.9 6.2 2.5 .5 2.1 .4 1.61
10.1 Harris,Devin NJ 30 .599 25.2 3.9 7.6 1.3 3.5 .1 1.98
9.9 Wallace,Gerald Cha 40 .578 18.8 8.8 2.1 1.2 2.4 1.1 1.47
9.7 Jennings,Brandon Mil 35 .516 20.1 5.4 6.4 .9 2.7 .3 1.62


e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.4 Richardson,Jason Phx 33 .567 23.5 6.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 .1 1.68
9.3 Terry,Jason Dal 35 .604 23.8 2.3 4.2 1.4 2.1 .2 1.58
9.1 Duncan,Tim SA 29 .535 17.9 12.7 2.6 1.2 3.1 2.6 1.84
9.1 West,David NO 31 .543 22.4 8.1 2.2 1.4 2.3 1.1 1.74
9.0 Granger,Danny Ind 38 .584 22.7 5.2 2.2 1.0 2.7 1.0 1.41

9.0 Brand,Elton Phi 34 .579 18.2 9.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.56
8.8 Aldridge,Lamarcus Por 39 .500 17.0 8.4 1.8 1.3 1.8 1.3 1.34
8.7 Martin,Kevin Hou 34 .606 27.0 3.5 2.7 .7 3.2 .2 1.53
8.5 Bosh,Chris Mia 33 .543 18.4 7.5 2.4 .7 .8 1.2 1.54
8.5 Odom,Lamar LAL 34 .612 16.8 11.4 3.3 .6 2.6 .4 1.46
Last year, LeBron, Wade, and Bosh finished #1, 3, and 10 respectively, in eWins. This year, 3, 5, 39.
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... 4&start=42
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erivera7



Joined: 19 Jan 2009
Posts: 185
Location: Chicago, IL

PostPosted: Fri Nov 19, 2010 3:19 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
One of my biggest pet peeves is the continued insistence, by the mainstream media, that Deron Williams is the best point guard in the NBA. Dime Magazine even had the audacity to suggest that Williams was the MVP in the early portion of the regular season.

I'm rooting for Chris Paul to stay healthy, so we can put this silly debate to rest. Or it may not matter regardless.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Fri Nov 19, 2010 4:24 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Not saying 10-12 games tells us who is what, but to speculate based on these 3-400 minute samples, my top 5 per position (plus close 6ths, plus anyone else projecting to 10+ eWins) --
Code:
e82 center tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk T e484
14.8 Howard,Dwight Orl 33 .561 28.3 13.8 1.7 1.2 3.7 3.2 41.5 2.66
12.4 Horford,Al Atl 31 .662 23.6 11.8 3.5 .6 1.6 .9 38.1 2.35
11.2 Hibbert,Roy Ind 31 .512 19.9 13.2 3.7 .5 3.3 3.4 35.6 2.12
10.9 Noah,Joakim Chi 38 .593 16.7 13.4 1.7 1.0 2.4 1.7 30.7 1.68
9.1 Duncan,Tim SA 29 .535 17.9 12.7 2.6 1.2 3.1 2.6 32.4 1.84

e82 power forward tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk T e484
14.4 Gasol,Pau LAL 39 .579 21.5 11.3 3.3 .7 1.7 1.5 36.0 2.16
13.2 Millsap,Paul Uta 37 .636 23.7 9.6 2.4 1.2 1.5 .6 35.3 2.10
12.9 Scola,Luis Hou 35 .562 23.7 10.8 2.2 1.1 1.5 1.0 36.1 2.17
12.2 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 36 .597 27.5 9.2 1.6 .2 2.9 .7 34.2 2.00
11.3 Smith,Josh Atl 35 .560 18.1 11.4 3.7 1.3 3.2 3.5 33.2 1.91
10.7 Garnett,Kevin Bos 35 .522 17.9 13.0 1.8 2.0 2.1 .7 32.3 1.83
10.5 Love,Kevin Min 31 .506 20.6 17.2 1.5 .6 3.4 .6 34.4 2.02

e82 small forward tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk T e484
14.7 James,Lebron Mia 38 .530 24.4 5.9 8.9 1.8 4.1 .8 37.6 2.30
12.3 Anthony,Carmelo Den 37 .551 24.1 9.4 2.5 1.4 3.0 .8 33.5 1.93
11.0 Durant,Kevin Okl 41 .540 24.5 6.5 2.0 1.2 3.5 .9 29.4 1.57
10.6 Gay,Rudy Mem 42 .573 20.5 6.5 2.1 1.4 1.9 .7 28.5 1.48
10.2 Pierce,Paul Bos 38 .616 23.9 6.2 2.5 .5 2.1 .4 29.9 1.61

e82 shooting guard tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk T e484
13.7 Wade,Dwyane Mia 35 .573 30.3 6.9 3.5 1.4 3.6 1.1 37.7 2.32
12.6 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .540 28.9 6.6 4.8 1.1 3.5 .2 36.9 2.24
11.7 Ellis,Monta GS 39 .576 25.6 3.9 3.7 2.4 3.1 .2 31.5 1.75
10.6 Ginobili,Manu SA 33 .623 26.8 3.6 4.5 2.0 3.5 .6 33.1 1.90
9.4 Richardson,J Phx 33 .567 23.5 6.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 .1 30.6 1.68
9.3 Terry,Jason Dal 35 .604 23.8 2.3 4.2 1.4 2.1 .2 29.6 1.58

e82 point guard tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk T e484
16.1 Paul,Chris NO 34 .603 23.4 6.2 10.9 3.1 2.5 .1 43.3 2.82
13.0 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .532 25.5 3.9 7.9 1.2 4.0 .7 34.7 2.04
12.6 Westbrook,R Okl 38 .556 22.7 6.0 6.7 2.1 3.6 .7 33.8 1.96
11.7 Williams,Deron Uta 40 .569 21.8 4.7 8.2 .8 3.6 .2 31.4 1.74
10.6 Nash,Steve Phx 34 .587 22.4 4.5 8.8 1.1 4.2 .1 32.7 1.86
10.6 Parker,Tony SA 34 .554 21.0 4.0 7.6 2.4 3.1 .0 32.2 1.82
10.3 Rondo,Rajon Bos 41 .474 10.1 5.4 12.1 2.4 3.4 .2 28.5 1.48
10.1 Harris,Devin NJ 30 .599 25.2 3.9 7.6 1.3 3.5 .1 33.9 1.98

Point guard may be the deepest position for 'stars'. DWilliams goes 40 mpg, which is worth something. Any of these 8 is arguably top 3 or 4, depending on your argument.
Brandon Jennings is also distinctly not bad.
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Mogilny



Joined: 05 Aug 2010
Posts: 25


PostPosted: Fri Nov 19, 2010 7:37 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
erivera7 wrote:
One of my biggest pet peeves is the continued insistence, by the mainstream media, that Deron Williams is the best point guard in the NBA. Dime Magazine even had the audacity to suggest that Williams was the MVP in the early portion of the regular season.

I'm rooting for Chris Paul to stay healthy, so we can put this silly debate to rest. Or it may not matter regardless.

Claiming Williams to be the MVP after what Paul has done so far this season is probably the classical "expert" behaviour to not pick the obvious choice. It would indeed be nice to see Paul stay healthy and see for how long the Hornets can keep this up and how much they will regress. Another perk is that he's the most entertaining player to watch right now imo.

And nice breakdown Mike.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 5:07 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
There's considerable shifting in a few days.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
14.7 Howard,Dwight Orl 34 .577 27.4 14.5 1.4 1.2 3.3 2.8 2.56
14.4 Gasol,Pau LAL 38 .594 21.7 11.3 3.5 .7 1.7 1.8 2.21
14.0 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 37 .607 29.5 8.7 1.8 .4 2.5 .6 2.22
13.9 Paul,Chris NOH 34 .596 20.5 5.5 10.4 3.3 2.5 .1 2.39
13.8 James,Lebron Mia 38 .545 25.2 5.7 8.0 1.7 4.0 .5 2.17

12.8 Anthony,Carmelo Den 37 .545 25.0 9.3 2.9 1.5 2.8 .6 2.03
12.7 Rose,Derrick Chi 39 .529 25.6 4.3 6.7 .9 3.7 .6 1.92
12.5 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .534 29.0 6.8 4.9 1.1 3.4 .2 2.25
11.6 Horford,Al Atl 32 .646 21.1 12.3 3.4 .6 1.5 1.0 2.17
11.6 Millsap,Paul Uta 37 .608 21.4 9.5 2.4 1.3 1.5 .9 1.87

11.5 Westbrook,Russel Okl 37 .537 22.1 5.5 7.5 1.9 3.9 .5 1.83
11.4 Scola,Luis Hou 35 .549 22.5 10.6 2.0 .8 1.6 .8 1.94
11.3 Williams,Deron Uta 39 .546 21.3 4.3 8.4 1.2 3.4 .1 1.73
11.3 Parker,Tony SAS 35 .579 22.2 4.0 7.7 2.1 2.7 .0 1.93
10.8 Ginobili,Manu SAS 33 .618 25.3 4.2 5.1 2.1 3.1 .5 1.91

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.7 Love,Kevin Min 33 .535 19.7 16.3 1.7 .6 2.9 .5 1.93
10.4 Noah,Joakim Chi 39 .571 15.4 13.3 2.0 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.60
10.3 Garnett,Kevin Bos 33 .551 19.3 12.2 2.1 2.0 2.1 .7 1.85
10.1 Bosh,Chris Mia 34 .584 21.6 8.6 2.0 .7 1.3 1.0 1.77
10.1 Durant,Kevin Okl 40 .554 25.4 6.8 2.4 1.1 3.3 .9 1.71

10.0 West,David NOH 32 .546 23.8 8.1 2.1 1.2 2.2 1.2 1.81
9.9 Griffin,Blake LAC 35 .514 19.1 12.8 2.0 .8 2.5 .5 1.66
9.9 Hibbert,Roy Ind 29 .517 20.9 12.6 3.4 .5 3.4 3.1 1.98
9.8 Pierce,Paul Bos 36 .604 23.3 6.1 2.7 .5 1.8 .5 1.61
9.8 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .508 18.2 13.6 3.4 1.1 2.7 2.5 2.00

9.8 Granger,Danny Ind 37 .557 22.8 5.5 2.9 1.4 2.5 1.1 1.56
9.8 Smith,Josh Atl 34 .542 17.7 10.6 3.6 1.5 3.0 2.9 1.69
9.8 Wade,Dwyane Mia 35 .518 24.0 6.5 3.9 1.3 3.3 1.1 1.74
9.1 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 35 .555 22.6 9.0 2.0 .9 4.0 2.3 1.53
9.1 Ellis,Monta GSW 39 .546 22.4 3.6 3.3 2.1 2.8 .1 1.38
31-40 -- Rudy Gay, Devin Harris, Odom, Jennings, Al Jefferson, Aldridge, Rondo, Kevin Martin, Jason Terry, Nash
41-50 Felton, Brand, Andre Miller, Gerald Wallace, Zach Randolph, Stephen Jackson, Augustin, Brook Lopez, Eric Gordon
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Fri Dec 03, 2010 10:50 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Three of the top 6 are point guards.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
13.5 Howard,Dwight Orl 35 .571 26.8 14.8 1.2 1.3 3.5 2.6 2.29
12.9 Paul,Chris NOH 35 .600 20.7 5.5 10.7 3.3 2.7 .1 2.19
12.9 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 36 .603 30.3 8.6 2.1 .6 2.4 .7 2.11
12.5 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .542 24.4 6.0 7.6 2.2 3.9 .4 1.95
12.4 James,Lebron Mia 37 .541 25.7 6.1 7.5 1.6 4.2 .5 1.95

12.2 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .583 24.0 4.3 9.2 1.3 3.4 .1 1.91
12.1 Gasol,Pau LAL 39 .576 19.8 11.2 3.2 .6 1.7 1.8 1.81
12.0 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .530 30.4 6.6 4.6 1.3 3.4 .2 2.13
11.5 Ginobili,Manu SAS 33 .623 27.8 4.9 5.3 2.2 2.8 .4 2.05
11.5 Horford,Al Atl 32 .631 22.4 12.1 3.4 .8 1.5 1.2 2.10

11.0 Anthony,Carmelo Den 35 .538 24.9 9.2 3.3 1.4 2.8 .7 1.88
11.0 Griffin,Blake LAC 36 .541 21.6 13.8 2.3 .8 2.8 .5 1.82
10.7 Millsap,Paul Uta 36 .597 21.6 9.6 2.5 1.3 1.5 .9 1.77
10.7 Rose,Derrick Chi 39 .528 25.5 4.4 6.5 .9 3.5 .5 1.74
10.3 Love,Kevin Min 34 .531 19.4 16.9 1.7 .6 2.7 .5 1.81

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.3 Noah,Joakim Chi 38 .575 16.4 12.9 2.4 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.59
10.2 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 36 .570 24.2 9.3 2.2 .9 3.8 2.1 1.65
10.2 Smith,Josh Atl 33 .539 18.8 11.6 4.1 1.7 3.2 2.9 1.83
10.1 Garnett,Kevin Bos 33 .555 20.4 12.4 2.2 1.8 2.1 .6 1.81
10.0 Pierce,Paul Bos 36 .621 24.9 6.0 2.7 .6 1.8 .8 1.66

9.9 Wade,Dwyane Mia 35 .528 25.3 6.8 4.4 1.5 3.6 1.1 1.78
9.9 West,David NOH 33 .550 24.7 8.2 1.9 1.4 2.1 1.1 1.77
9.8 Bosh,Chris Mia 34 .563 22.4 8.7 2.1 .9 1.4 .8 1.69
9.8 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .532 22.0 10.6 2.1 .9 1.9 .8 1.73
9.7 Hibbert,Roy Ind 30 .535 21.5 12.0 3.5 .5 3.1 2.5 1.88

9.4 Duncan,Tim SAS 30 .506 18.4 13.6 3.9 1.0 2.9 2.3 1.87
9.3 Granger,Danny Ind 37 .563 23.8 5.5 2.6 1.4 2.8 1.0 1.47
9.0 Odom,Lamar LAL 36 .625 17.5 11.2 3.3 .7 2.2 .9 1.48
8.8 Durant,Kevin Okl 40 .533 24.8 6.8 2.3 1.1 3.2 .9 1.52
8.8 Jefferson,Al Uta 36 .527 18.7 9.9 1.5 .3 1.3 1.6 1.45

Odd to see Duncan, Wade, Durant so far down the list.
#31-40 Tony Parker, Jennings, Monta Ellis, Gay, Aldridge, Devin Harris, Nelson, J Richardson, B Lopez, Felton
41-50 Gordon, Curry, Kevin Martin, Gerald Wallace, Brand, Chandler, Nash, Rondo, Zach, Andre Miller
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Mon Dec 06, 2010 10:22 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Some serious shifting at the top.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
13.3 James,Lebron Mia 37 .551 27.2 6.2 7.4 1.6 3.9 .6 2.13
13.3 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 36 .614 31.0 8.3 2.2 .6 2.4 .7 2.19
12.6 Paul,Chris NOH 34 .599 20.8 5.6 10.5 3.2 2.8 .1 2.16
12.4 Gasol,Pau LAL 39 .581 20.4 11.1 3.4 .6 1.7 1.9 1.89
12.3 Howard,Dwight Orl 35 .571 26.9 14.8 1.2 1.3 3.5 2.6 2.32

12.1 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .528 30.6 6.5 4.6 1.3 3.3 .2 2.16
12.0 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .534 23.7 5.9 7.7 2.2 4.0 .4 1.89
12.0 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .577 23.4 4.3 9.0 1.4 3.4 .2 1.87
11.8 Horford,Al Atl 32 .628 23.0 12.0 3.4 .8 1.4 1.1 2.15
11.2 Ginobili,Manu SAS 33 .617 27.5 4.6 5.4 2.2 2.7 .5 2.02

11.0 Garnett,Kevin Bos 33 .566 21.2 13.2 2.6 1.8 2.0 .7 1.99
11.0 Love,Kevin Min 34 .542 20.2 17.2 1.8 .5 2.8 .5 1.91
11.0 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 37 .576 25.3 9.5 2.1 1.0 3.7 1.9 1.76
10.9 Millsap,Paul Uta 35 .598 22.1 9.5 2.5 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.81
10.8 Rose,Derrick Chi 39 .528 24.9 4.5 6.6 1.1 3.5 .5 1.73

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.7 Griffin,Blake LAC 36 .531 20.8 13.6 2.3 .8 2.8 .6 1.75
10.7 Wade,Dwyane Mia 35 .537 25.8 7.2 4.6 1.7 3.6 1.1 1.90
10.3 Anthony,Carmelo Den 34 .519 23.9 8.9 3.3 1.3 2.9 .6 1.77
10.0 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .519 19.1 13.6 4.1 1.1 2.7 2.5 2.01
9.9 Bosh,Chris Mia 34 .563 23.0 8.7 2.1 .8 1.5 .7 1.71

9.7 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .536 22.0 10.3 2.1 .8 1.7 .8 1.73
9.7 Noah,Joakim Chi 39 .575 15.8 12.6 2.3 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.48
9.7 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .609 25.0 5.7 2.7 .6 1.7 .8 1.64
9.5 Smith,Josh Atl 33 .521 18.0 11.2 3.9 1.7 3.1 2.7 1.72
9.5 Hibbert,Roy Ind 30 .538 21.3 11.7 3.5 .5 3.0 2.5 1.88

9.1 Odom,Lamar LAL 36 .621 17.9 11.0 3.2 .7 2.2 1.0 1.52
9.1 West,David NOH 33 .550 24.0 8.1 2.0 1.3 2.1 1.2 1.73
8.8 Jennings,Brandon Mil 35 .501 20.7 4.8 5.7 1.3 2.7 .4 1.46
8.7 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .554 20.8 4.2 7.4 1.8 3.0 .0 1.56
8.7 Jefferson,Al Uta 36 .520 18.4 9.7 1.6 .4 1.3 1.6 1.44

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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Tue Dec 07, 2010 10:33 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Update 'by position'.
At center, 4 of the top 5 in the East.
Five of top 7 PF and 4 of top 5 SG in the West.
Code:
e82 center tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
12.3 Howard,Dwight Orl 35 .571 26.9 14.8 1.2 1.3 3.5 2.6 2.32
11.8 Horford,Al Atl 32 .628 23.0 12.0 3.4 .8 1.4 1.1 2.15
10.0 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .519 19.1 13.6 4.1 1.1 2.7 2.5 2.01
9.7 Noah,Joakim Chi 39 .575 15.8 12.6 2.3 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.48
9.5 Hibbert,Roy Ind 30 .538 21.3 11.7 3.5 .5 3.0 2.5 1.88

e82 power forward tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
13.3 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 36 .614 31.0 8.3 2.2 .6 2.4 .7 2.19
12.4 Gasol,Pau LAL 39 .581 20.4 11.1 3.4 .6 1.7 1.9 1.89
11.0 Garnett,Kevin Bos 33 .566 21.2 13.2 2.6 1.8 2.0 .7 1.99
11.0 Love,Kevin Min 34 .542 20.2 17.2 1.8 .5 2.8 .5 1.91
11.0 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 37 .576 25.3 9.5 2.1 1.0 3.7 1.9 1.76
10.9 Millsap,Paul Uta 35 .598 22.1 9.5 2.5 1.3 1.5 1.0 1.81
10.7 Griffin,Blake LAC 36 .531 20.8 13.6 2.3 .8 2.8 .6 1.75

e82 small forward tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
13.3 James,Lebron Mia 37 .551 27.2 6.2 7.4 1.6 3.9 .6 2.13
10.3 Anthony,Carmelo Den 34 .519 23.9 8.9 3.3 1.3 2.9 .6 1.77
9.7 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .609 25.0 5.7 2.7 .6 1.7 .8 1.64
8.6 Granger,Danny Ind 37 .548 22.6 5.5 2.5 1.3 2.7 1.0 1.36
8.5 Durant,Kevin Okl 40 .538 24.8 6.7 2.3 1.0 3.1 .9 1.54
8.4 Gay,Rudy Mem 41 .566 19.9 6.1 2.0 1.3 2.2 1.1 1.22

e82 shooting guard tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
12.1 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .528 30.6 6.5 4.6 1.3 3.3 .2 2.16
11.2 Ginobili,Manu SAS 33 .617 27.5 4.6 5.4 2.2 2.7 .5 2.02
10.7 Wade,Dwyane Mia 35 .537 25.8 7.2 4.6 1.7 3.6 1.1 1.90
8.6 Ellis,Monta GSW 40 .547 22.2 3.5 3.4 2.2 2.6 .1 1.28
8.4 Richardson,Jason Phx 33 .602 24.3 5.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 .2 1.49

e82 point guard tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
12.6 Paul,Chris NOH 34 .599 20.8 5.6 10.5 3.2 2.8 .1 2.16
12.0 Westbrook,Russel Okl 38 .534 23.7 5.9 7.7 2.2 4.0 .4 1.89
12.0 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .577 23.4 4.3 9.0 1.4 3.4 .2 1.87
10.8 Rose,Derrick Chi 39 .528 24.9 4.5 6.6 1.1 3.5 .5 1.73
8.8 Jennings,Brandon Mil 35 .501 20.7 4.8 5.7 1.3 2.7 .4 1.46
8.7 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .554 20.8 4.2 7.4 1.8 3.0 .0 1.56

Is Rondo having a bad year?
He's 11th in both eW/82G and eW/484 min.
Also 11th among PG in PER; 6th in WS/48 -- with Kidd, among the top 15, with more than half of this being defensive.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=l0FjJ
His TO% -- 26.5 -- is about 20% more than Kidd's (2nd-highest).
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3608
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Mon Dec 13, 2010 11:03 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Season 29% over.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
14.0 James,Lebron Mia 37 .559 28.0 6.5 7.4 1.5 3.7 .5 2.25
13.3 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 36 .632 30.8 8.5 2.2 .7 2.5 .8 2.17
12.5 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .586 24.3 4.1 8.8 1.3 3.2 .2 1.94
12.3 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .535 30.9 6.1 4.6 1.6 3.4 .2 2.17
12.2 Paul,Chris NOH 34 .611 21.1 5.0 10.1 3.4 2.8 .0 2.11

12.1 Westbrook,Russel Okl 37 .537 24.1 5.7 8.0 2.1 4.2 .4 1.93
12.0 Howard,Dwight Orl 35 .569 26.3 14.5 1.0 1.2 3.7 2.5 2.21
12.0 Wade,Dwyane Mia 35 .555 27.8 7.5 4.7 1.5 3.7 1.0 2.08
11.9 Gasol,Pau LAL 39 .558 19.2 10.8 3.5 .5 1.7 2.1 1.77
11.9 Love,Kevin Min 35 .560 21.0 17.5 1.7 .5 2.6 .4 2.01

11.7 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 37 .584 26.0 9.4 2.2 .9 3.8 2.0 1.84
11.3 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .537 25.7 4.5 6.8 1.0 3.6 .5 1.83
11.3 Horford,Al Atl 33 .603 22.0 12.0 3.4 .9 1.6 1.0 2.01
11.0 Griffin,Blake LAC 36 .519 20.6 13.5 2.5 .8 2.8 .6 1.78
10.9 Garnett,Kevin Bos 32 .576 21.5 13.0 2.5 1.8 1.8 .9 2.01

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.5 Ginobili,Manu SAS 32 .610 26.9 4.5 5.4 2.2 3.0 .4 1.93
10.2 Smith,Josh Atl 33 .546 19.6 10.5 3.9 1.7 3.1 2.7 1.82
10.0 Millsap,Paul Uta 36 .584 20.8 9.0 2.4 1.5 1.4 .9 1.66
9.7 Scola,Luis Hou 34 .535 22.0 10.5 2.0 .8 2.0 .8 1.71
9.6 Bosh,Chris Mia 35 .549 21.7 9.3 2.2 .9 1.6 .7 1.64

9.4 Noah,Joakim Chi 37 .547 15.2 13.0 2.4 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.49
9.4 Durant,Kevin Okl 40 .546 25.9 6.8 2.4 1.0 3.2 1.0 1.67
9.4 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .516 18.6 13.2 4.1 1.0 2.6 2.3 1.93
9.3 West,David NOH 33 .556 24.1 8.4 2.0 1.4 2.1 1.0 1.75
9.3 Anthony,Carmelo Den 35 .512 23.4 9.2 3.1 1.1 3.0 .6 1.72

9.1 Odom,Lamar LAL 35 .624 18.5 10.5 3.1 .7 2.3 1.0 1.52
9.0 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .549 20.9 4.1 7.6 1.8 2.9 .0 1.61
8.9 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .590 23.1 5.7 2.7 .7 1.9 .8 1.51
8.8 Hibbert,Roy Ind 30 .530 19.7 11.1 3.7 .5 3.0 2.4 1.73
8.7 Martin,Kevin Hou 32 .613 28.5 3.6 2.5 .7 2.6 .2 1.60
8.7 Jennings,Brandon Mil 35 .496 20.7 4.7 5.5 1.3 2.6 .4 1.46

32-40 Eric Gordon, Granger, Al Jefferson, Nash, Felton, Ellis, Gay, Aldridge, Brand
41-50 Rondo, Brook Lopez, Zach Randolph, Gerald Wallace, Devin Harris, Bargnani, Ray Allen, Jason Richardson, Stephen Jackson, Nene
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Crow



Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 820


PostPosted: Mon Dec 13, 2010 2:34 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
"Is Rondo having a bad year?"


No. He has 2 problem areas but it is not a bad year overall to me looking at individual and team stats.


The good stuff:

Career best eFG% and 3pt FG%.

Ast% is one of the highest of all-time.

Close to career best on WinShares per 48.

Leads the very best lineup on net +/- per minute in the league (used over 23 minutes for the season) to a level of winning of +22 per 48 minutes.

The overall team offense is 3 points better on offense with him on the court compared to with him last season and 3 points better on defense per 100 possessions as well.

Team win% is up from 61% last season to 83% this season.

Overall I'd call it a very good or great season even with the FT frequency / FT% problems and heightened turnovers. But that's just my different take.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 13, 2010 5:23 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Crow wrote:
...
Leads the very best lineup on net +/- per minute in the league ...

Rondo's missed 4 games, in which the Celtics had:

- 1-pt loss to Raptors (12 TO)
- blowout win over Hawks (15 TO)
- 6-pt win over Nets (10 TO)
- blowout win over Nets (13 TO)

Averaging 12.5 turnovers in these games, vs 15 when Rondo plays.
Nate Robinson shoots .774 in his 4 starts, w. 22 Ast vs 5 TO.
Celtics are getting an extra 7% of their FG assisted at home -- more than twice the league average markup.
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Crow



Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 820


PostPosted: Mon Dec 13, 2010 6:55 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Starting PG for these Celtics is indeed a nice chair / context.

It is nice that the Celtics went 3-1 with Robinson... in 3 games against teams in the bottom 10 on SRS (including 2 games against the Nets, the 3rd worst team) and the best team of the middle 10 (Hawks 11th on SRS).

The team defensive was almost 8 points better in Rondo's absence though the team offense was also 4 points worse. And 2-1 on the road is good.

Having Robinson on the court instead of Rondo for the entire season to date has on average meant the team offense efficiency is 6 points worse and the defensive efficiency is 3 points worse too. This includes Nate 4 starts so the difference was more dramatic apart from that issue. But, yes this is unadjusted for player quality also on the court and that is a major issue in play.

So do you want to turn to Adjusted +/-? Checking three versions of multiple season ratings I find 1 win for Robinson, 1 close, 1 big win for Rondo.

What to think? Is Robinson better as the starter and should they give him the job based on 4 games as the starter and / or everything else? I wouldn't and I doubt that is going to happen. It is nice that Nate can fill-in successfully and was hot and the others really stepped up their assist-making in support but I'd take Rondo in that job over the long haul.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:30 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Update: special Point Guard edition.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
12.5 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .586 24.3 4.1 8.8 1.3 3.2 .2 1.94
12.2 Paul,Chris NOH 34 .611 21.1 5.0 10.1 3.4 2.8 .0 2.11
12.1 Westbrook,Russel Okl 37 .537 24.1 5.7 8.0 2.1 4.2 .4 1.93
11.3 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .537 25.7 4.5 6.8 1.0 3.6 .5 1.83
9.0 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .549 20.9 4.1 7.6 1.8 2.9 .0 1.61
8.7 Jennings,Brandon Mil 35 .496 20.7 4.7 5.5 1.3 2.6 .4 1.46

- Does not include last night's games.
DWill was great; CP was not.
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Crow



Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 820


PostPosted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 12:01 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
On team offensive efficiency with them on the court, Rondo leads those 6 just listed PGs, though the highest such number is associated with Nash followed by Nelson, Fisher, Arroyo and Bibby then Rondo.

Add defense and look at win% while of the court Rondo leads with the team winning 87.5% of games for the time he is on the court and at the point. Nash, Parker are also at or over 80% win and Nelson, Kidd and Paul are also at or over 70% win.


For the eWin PG leaders: D Williams at 62% win while on the court (team overall 69% win), Westbrook 55% (team overall 68%), Paul 70% (team overall 58%), Parker 80% (team overall 87%), Rose 59% (team overall 65%), Jennings 37% (team overall 43%). So for this leader group of 6, only Paul's on the court win% number is higher than the team as a whole.

Back to the leaders on team offensive efficiency with them on the court: Nash 83% win while on court (team overall 48%), Nelson 75% (team overall 67%), Bibby 75% (team overall 64%), Fisher 55% (team overall 71%), Arroyo 55% (team overall 69%) and Rondo 88% (team overall 83%). So of the 6 PGs associated with the highest team offensive efficiency while they were on the court, 4 had a win% higher than the team as a whole.

A contrast between the two groups.

Raising the team win% while a PG is on the court is a pretty good stat. Team win% being lower than overall or compared with you off the court seems like something worth being aware of.

Of course team win% while the starting PG is on and off the court is about more than them, it is also about the quality of the rest of the team especially the starters and their relative quality to the rest of league and their relative performance compared to the bench 's performance against who they face. And the relative leadership ability of their PG sub. But the on/off detail gives a different perspective on starting PG contribution, another factor to consider along with individual stats and other things.


So, highest team win % while on the court: Rondo, at about as high as you could hope for.

Biggest gains in team win % on / off among those discussed here: Nash in a runaway then Bibby and Paul.

Biggest losses in team win % on / off: Fisher, Arroyo and Westbrook.

5 of the 6 PGs with negative team win% on / off are on the individual stat leader list.

Lowest team win % while on the court in this group: Jennings by far. Everyone else discussed had a team win% while on the court at least 50% higher than his.

Team offensive efficiency with Jennings on the court- almost 5 points per 100 possessions below league average.

The negative net win% on / off is not all his and their "fault" but it probably isn't completely unrelated to them and their style of play either.

What else do the 5 PGs on the individual stat leader list and negative on net team win% on / off have in common? Well 4 of them are in the top 5 for usage% among big minute PGs at nearly 27% or higher with Westbrook's at 31.6%. Parker was the exception, having a milder usage of about 24% and that 80% win% on the court and the pretty tough to beat 87% overall win% for the team.

All five here with positive net team win% on / off had something in common too. Usage%s under 25%. That tends to "hurt" on player comparisons using metrics composed of individual stats but it seems to work out alright for those teams.

Teams vary and their PGs vary. You want to get a PG that fits your team. In the end it comes down to winning.

Including the playoffs. Among those negative on net team win% on / off and generally high on usage%, currently only Fisher and Williams have made conference final appearances. Only Fisher was gone further and when he did the gap in his team win % on/off was only 2%pts in each of the last 3 seasons and he had the lower usage% too. So remove Fisher or put him near the fence and there is very little deep playoff appearance or success for the others. Yet. The others are generally young. Maybe they will go there and it will be interesting to see where their win% on the court, win% on / off, usage and other things are then compared to now.

On the 6 highest on team offensive efficiency with them on the court right now the others beyond Fisher have 9 conference final appearances of their own and Fisher has had 8. Some older guys, but they did it. Among the five here with positive net team win% on / off I think they have 7 conference final appearances. These deep playoff appearances are more numerous than for the other group at the top of the individual performance metric. Coincidence or not. A longer history might or might not show something different. We'll slowly see how the next half-decade or decade plays out.

First up Playoffs 2011.

So far Fisher not looking as good as before using his current team win% numbers.

Rondo looking very good on these. Nelson and I'd say Parker too looking pretty good as well and you might add others.

Williams, Westbrook and Rose? Not quite so good or as encouraging at least by these numbers.

How many conference final appearances for these groups of 3? I'd give the edge to the group with the better PG win%s on the court, generally better win%s on / off, lower usages and generally better team offensive efficiencies while they are on the court and the teams built around them over the other 3 PGs and the teams built around them. Not the whole story of course but maybe a fairly important part of it.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 17, 2010 6:58 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Special edition, ranked by 'how good', per minute.
Does not include last night's games.
We may as well call 2.00 eW/484 a Superstar.
Code:
e484 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e82
2.22 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .546 31.3 6.0 4.7 1.5 3.2 .2 12.4
2.16 James,Lebron Mia 37 .551 26.9 6.6 7.3 1.4 3.7 .5 13.5
2.14 Howard,Dwight Orl 35 .570 25.5 14.4 .9 1.1 3.6 2.4 11.7
2.10 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 36 .629 29.8 8.1 2.2 .8 2.5 .9 13.0
2.07 Wade,Dwyane Mia 36 .566 28.0 7.2 4.5 1.5 3.4 .9 12.1

2.00 Paul,Chris NOH 34 .604 20.4 5.0 9.7 3.1 2.6 .0 11.7
1.96 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .591 24.5 4.1 8.8 1.3 3.2 .2 12.6
1.96 Garnett,Kevin Bos 32 .575 20.8 12.9 2.5 1.8 1.8 .9 10.7
1.92 Love,Kevin Min 35 .553 19.9 16.9 1.7 .5 2.4 .4 11.5
1.91 Ginobili,Manu SAS 32 .616 26.9 4.6 5.2 2.1 3.0 .4 10.4

1.91 Horford,Al Atl 33 .600 21.1 11.7 3.1 .9 1.6 1.0 10.8
1.87 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .519 18.2 12.9 3.9 1.0 2.6 2.4 9.1
1.86 Westbrook,Russel Okl 37 .539 23.7 5.6 7.7 2.0 4.1 .3 11.6
1.82 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 38 .589 26.0 9.3 2.1 .9 3.7 2.0 11.6
1.81 Gasol,Pau LAL 39 .561 19.5 10.7 3.6 .5 1.7 2.0 12.0

e484 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e82
1.77 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .529 24.5 4.5 7.1 1.0 3.6 .4 10.9
1.77 Griffin,Blake LAC 36 .517 20.1 13.6 2.5 .8 2.7 .6 10.9
1.75 Smith,Josh Atl 33 .547 19.5 10.0 3.7 1.7 3.0 2.5 9.9
1.72 Anthony,Carmelo Den 35 .519 23.7 9.2 2.9 1.1 3.1 .6 9.4
1.71 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .537 21.9 10.4 2.0 .8 1.9 .9 9.6

1.69 West,David NOH 33 .549 23.0 8.5 2.1 1.3 2.0 .9 9.2
1.68 Durant,Kevin Okl 40 .554 26.1 6.8 2.4 1.0 3.1 1.0 9.5
1.62 Millsap,Paul Uta 35 .581 20.4 8.8 2.3 1.5 1.4 .9 9.7
1.61 Bogut,Andrew Mil 36 .505 15.7 13.6 1.6 .5 1.7 3.0 7.3
1.61 Bosh,Chris Mia 35 .547 21.2 9.0 2.1 .9 1.5 .8 9.5

1.59 Hibbert,Roy Ind 29 .521 18.7 10.5 3.4 .5 2.9 2.4 8.0
1.56 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .547 20.3 4.0 7.4 1.7 2.8 .0 8.7
1.56 Nash,Steve Phx 34 .598 19.8 4.1 9.7 .8 4.0 .0 8.1
1.55 Randolph,Zach Mem 36 .521 18.4 13.0 1.4 .7 1.8 .4 8.0
1.54 Martin,Kevin Hou 32 .609 27.7 3.6 2.4 .7 2.6 .2 8.3
1.53 Odom,Lamar LAL 35 .627 18.3 10.7 3.0 .7 2.2 1.0 9.2
1.52 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .597 23.0 5.8 2.7 .8 1.8 .8 9.1

Minimum 500 minutes played.
30 players above 1.50 suggest a field of Allstar candidates.
EDIT: Actually 32, and only 12 are from the East.
33-40 Noah, Nene, DHarris, Nelson, Jennings, TChandler, Curry, EGordon
41-50 Brand, Rondo, VCarter, AJefferson, Humphries, Camby, JRichardson, Bass, Amir Johnson, Stuckey

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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3621
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Mon Dec 20, 2010 6:47 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Quick update, for a couple of reasons:
- Assist rates now factored by team Pts/FG.
- Kobe no longer at the top.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
13.5 James,Lebron Mia 37 .559 27.1 6.7 8.0 1.3 3.7 .5 2.15
11.9 Gasol,Pau LAL 39 .560 19.2 10.7 4.4 .5 1.8 1.9 1.81
11.9 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 36 .628 28.4 8.0 2.5 .7 2.4 .9 1.94
11.6 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .585 23.2 3.9 9.2 1.2 3.1 .2 1.82
11.6 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .544 29.8 5.8 5.4 1.4 3.1 .2 2.08

11.6 Wade,Dwyane Mia 36 .559 27.0 7.1 4.9 1.5 3.3 1.0 1.98
11.6 Westbrook,Russel Okl 37 .535 23.1 5.4 9.1 2.0 4.0 .3 1.87
11.3 Love,Kevin Min 36 .561 19.8 16.8 2.0 .5 2.3 .3 1.87
11.3 Paul,Chris NOH 34 .604 19.8 5.1 10.2 3.0 2.6 .0 1.94
11.3 Howard,Dwight Orl 35 .565 24.9 14.6 1.1 1.2 3.6 2.3 2.05

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
11.1 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .533 24.6 4.6 7.8 .9 3.6 .5 1.78
10.9 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .524 20.6 13.6 2.9 .8 2.7 .6 1.76
10.9 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 38 .577 24.5 9.3 2.6 .9 3.8 2.0 1.70
10.3 Garnett,Kevin Bos 32 .577 20.1 12.8 2.8 1.9 1.7 .8 1.88
10.2 Horford,Al Atl 34 .600 19.8 11.4 3.5 .8 1.5 1.1 1.79

9.7 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .526 18.4 12.9 4.7 1.0 2.4 2.5 1.96
9.6 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .555 20.9 3.8 9.0 1.6 2.7 .0 1.69
9.6 Ginobili,Manu SAS 32 .608 24.8 4.4 6.0 2.0 2.9 .4 1.76
9.4 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .535 21.6 10.2 2.6 .8 2.0 .9 1.67
9.4 Anthony,Carmelo Den 35 .521 23.5 9.0 3.7 1.0 2.9 .6 1.71

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.3 Millsap,Paul Uta 35 .583 19.8 8.8 2.6 1.6 1.4 .9 1.57
9.3 West,David NOH 34 .562 23.5 8.6 2.3 1.3 2.0 .9 1.69
9.3 Durant,Kevin Okl 40 .553 25.5 6.5 2.9 1.0 3.0 1.0 1.62
9.2 Smith,Josh Atl 33 .535 18.3 9.9 4.0 1.6 2.9 2.5 1.64
9.1 Bosh,Chris Mia 35 .553 21.4 8.9 2.3 .9 1.8 .7 1.54

8.9 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .596 22.0 5.9 3.5 .9 1.8 .8 1.49
8.7 Odom,Lamar LAL 36 .627 17.6 10.4 3.6 .7 2.3 .9 1.45
8.5 Noah,Joakim Chi 37 .556 15.0 12.7 2.6 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.42
8.5 Felton,Raymond NYK 39 .564 16.2 3.6 8.9 1.8 3.3 .3 1.28
8.4 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 38 .507 18.5 8.6 1.7 .9 1.9 1.2 1.29

31-40 Nash, Al Jefferson, Jennings, Hibbert, Zach, Ellis, Kevin Martin, Gay, Granger, Eric Gordon
41-50 Brand, Bogut, B Lopez, Rondo, Ray Allen, Devin Harris, Wilson Chandler, Deng, Andre Miller, Gerald Wallace
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
Posts: 3621
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Mon Dec 27, 2010 11:05 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Players 2-13 are bunched very tightly.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
14.0 James,Lebron Mia 37 .567 27.6 7.0 8.2 1.4 3.7 .4 2.22
11.7 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .526 25.1 5.0 8.1 1.2 3.7 .5 1.89
11.7 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .577 22.9 4.1 9.4 1.2 3.1 .2 1.82
11.7 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 36 .618 27.4 8.0 2.6 .7 2.3 .7 1.90
11.6 Gasol,Pau LAL 39 .557 19.1 10.7 4.3 .5 1.8 1.8 1.78

11.5 Howard,Dwight Orl 36 .567 24.3 15.0 1.1 1.3 3.7 2.4 2.06
11.4 Wade,Dwyane Mia 36 .555 26.8 6.9 5.1 1.5 3.2 1.0 1.99
11.4 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .533 21.2 13.7 3.0 .8 2.7 .5 1.83
11.4 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .543 29.1 5.8 5.4 1.4 3.2 .1 2.02
11.2 Westbrook,Russel Okl 36 .527 23.1 5.4 8.8 2.0 4.0 .3 1.83

11.1 Paul,Chris NOH 35 .604 19.5 5.1 10.2 2.8 2.6 .0 1.89
11.0 Love,Kevin Min 36 .560 19.5 16.5 2.0 .5 2.4 .3 1.82
10.9 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 38 .575 24.3 9.2 2.6 .9 4.0 2.2 1.70
10.3 Garnett,Kevin Bos 32 .579 20.2 12.5 2.7 2.0 1.7 .8 1.88
10.1 Horford,Al Atl 34 .598 19.8 11.3 3.6 .8 1.6 1.0 1.78

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.9 Durant,Kevin Okl 39 .571 26.4 6.7 3.0 1.0 3.0 .9 1.71
9.6 Bosh,Chris Mia 35 .557 21.8 9.1 2.3 .9 1.7 .7 1.61
9.6 Millsap,Paul Uta 35 .588 20.0 9.1 2.7 1.7 1.4 .9 1.63
9.5 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .520 18.1 13.2 4.8 1.0 2.5 2.3 1.95
9.5 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .530 21.6 10.1 2.8 .8 2.1 .9 1.68

9.3 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .553 20.6 3.8 9.2 1.5 2.7 .0 1.66
9.3 Smith,Josh Atl 34 .524 17.9 10.1 4.0 1.5 2.8 2.4 1.63
9.2 West,David NOH 34 .564 23.2 8.4 2.3 1.2 2.0 .8 1.67
9.2 Ginobili,Manu SAS 32 .606 23.9 4.3 5.9 2.0 2.7 .4 1.71
8.9 Aldridge,Lamarcus Por 39 .507 18.8 9.0 1.7 .9 1.8 1.2 1.36

8.8 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .586 21.4 6.0 3.6 1.0 2.0 .7 1.46
8.7 Ellis,Monta GSW 41 .548 21.9 3.1 4.2 2.2 2.9 .2 1.26
8.6 Felton,Raymond NYK 39 .559 16.2 3.6 9.1 1.9 3.3 .3 1.30
8.6 Anthony,Carmelo Den 35 .521 23.6 9.0 3.7 1.0 2.9 .6 1.73
8.5 Odom,Lamar LAL 36 .615 17.0 10.3 3.6 .6 2.3 .9 1.41
8.5 Jefferson,Al Uta 36 .509 17.4 9.5 1.9 .5 1.3 1.8 1.40

32-40 Nash, Zach, Kevin Martin, Gay, Eric Gordon, Granger, Hibbert, Brand, Noah
41-50 BLopez, Jennings, Bogut, Allen, WChandler, Rondo, Harris, AMiller, Deng, Beasley
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Mike G



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Posts: 3621
Location: Hendersonville, NC

PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 1:07 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
With season at 38.5%, the natural order is being realized.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
13.8 James,Lebron Mia 37 .565 26.8 7.0 8.3 1.4 3.7 .4 2.19
12.0 Wade,Dwyane Mia 36 .564 27.8 7.0 4.9 1.5 3.2 1.0 2.07
11.7 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .526 25.1 5.0 8.0 1.2 3.6 .4 1.88
11.7 Howard,Dwight Orl 35 .563 24.1 15.0 1.2 1.2 3.8 2.5 2.08
11.6 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .540 21.4 13.6 2.9 .7 2.7 .5 1.85

11.5 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .586 23.0 4.1 9.3 1.2 3.2 .1 1.79
11.4 Gasol,Pau LAL 38 .558 18.7 10.8 4.3 .5 1.8 1.8 1.76
11.1 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .537 29.1 5.8 5.2 1.4 3.4 .1 2.00
11.1 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 38 .572 24.5 8.9 2.6 .9 3.8 2.2 1.74
11.1 Love,Kevin Min 36 .560 19.3 16.2 2.0 .5 2.4 .3 1.81

10.9 Paul,Chris NOH 35 .606 19.6 5.1 9.8 2.9 2.6 .0 1.86
10.9 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 35 .621 27.7 8.0 2.7 .7 2.3 .7 1.95
10.9 Westbrook,Russel Okl 36 .525 22.9 5.3 8.4 2.1 4.0 .3 1.79
10.3 Horford,Al Atl 34 .602 19.8 11.4 3.5 .8 1.7 1.0 1.79
10.1 Durant,Kevin Okl 39 .574 26.7 6.5 2.8 1.1 3.1 .9 1.73

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.0 Garnett,Kevin Bos 32 .572 19.8 12.6 2.6 2.0 1.7 .8 1.87
9.5 Bosh,Chris Mia 35 .560 21.4 8.9 2.4 .8 1.8 .7 1.58
9.4 Aldridge,Lamarcus Por 39 .514 19.3 8.9 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.44
9.3 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .530 21.5 9.7 2.7 .7 2.1 .9 1.65
9.3 Smith,Josh Atl 34 .525 18.1 10.0 3.8 1.4 2.7 2.2 1.62

9.3 Pierce,Paul Bos 36 .600 22.0 6.0 3.8 1.0 2.0 .7 1.53
9.2 Millsap,Paul Uta 35 .577 19.5 9.0 2.6 1.6 1.5 .9 1.58
9.1 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .549 20.7 3.8 8.6 1.5 2.7 .0 1.61
9.1 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .518 17.8 12.9 4.5 .9 2.4 2.0 1.85
9.0 Ginobili,Manu SAS 32 .598 23.5 4.5 5.8 2.0 2.8 .4 1.67

9.0 West,David NOH 34 .562 22.7 8.2 2.2 1.1 2.0 .8 1.62
8.7 Randolph,Zach Mem 36 .516 19.0 13.4 1.7 .7 1.9 .3 1.63
8.7 Jefferson,Al Uta 36 .514 17.7 9.7 1.9 .5 1.4 1.8 1.44
8.6 Ellis,Monta GSW 41 .545 21.5 2.9 4.3 2.1 2.9 .2 1.24
8.5 Odom,Lamar LAL 36 .615 17.1 10.2 3.5 .6 2.2 .9 1.40

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Crow



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Posts: 825


PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 1:44 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
2 of top 10 over 28 years old (based on age at beginning of season), 5 of top 20.

I think 7 of the next 10 are over 28.

Don't know if that is typical or not but it is something I noticed.

Last edited by Crow on Sat Jan 01, 2011 1:12 am; edited 2 times in total
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BobboFitos



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 4:12 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Of the top 30, currently:
Heat have 3, 1/2/17. Bos just 2, Magic 1, Bulls 1.
Lakers have 3, Spurs 3 (all 3 in a row, too - weird!), Utah 3, Mavericks only 1.
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Crow



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PostPosted: Fri Dec 31, 2010 7:00 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
By WinShares 9 of top 20 (over 25 minutes per game) are 28 or older this season and 21 of top 50. Last season was close to the same.

The share 28+ years old in the top 20 and top 50 in EZPM last season looks close to WinShare's distribution. Similar with a few versions of Adjusted +/- and PER- about 40% are 28+.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 12:15 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Special All-Star anticipation edition.
Griffin not only leads all rookies in eWins, he leads all players in the West.
Code:

Western Conference
e82 pos per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.4 C Duncan,Tim SAS .523 18.3 12.8 4.4 .9 2.4 2.0 1.91
8.9 C Jefferson,Al Uta .509 17.6 9.7 2.0 .5 1.3 1.8 1.48

12.0 PF Griffin,Blake LAC .539 21.7 13.6 2.9 .7 2.7 .5 1.91
11.4 PF Love,Kevin Min .564 19.6 16.1 2.1 .6 2.4 .3 1.86
11.4 PF Gasol,Pau LAL .562 18.7 10.8 4.0 .5 1.9 1.8 1.77
10.5 PF Nowitzki,Dirk Dal .621 27.8 8.1 2.7 .7 2.3 .7 2.00
10.3 SF Durant,Kevin Okl .574 26.8 6.4 2.8 1.0 3.1 .9 1.76

9.9 PF Aldridge,Lamarcu Por .514 19.8 9.1 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.52
9.7 PF Millsap,Paul Uta .583 19.9 9.2 2.6 1.6 1.5 .9 1.65
9.3 PF Randolph,Zach Mem .521 19.6 13.6 1.7 .7 1.9 .3 1.71
9.2 PF Scola,Luis Hou .530 21.4 9.6 2.7 .7 2.3 .9 1.65
9.1 PF West,David NOH .556 22.4 8.0 2.4 1.1 2.0 .8 1.62

e82 pos per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
11.7 PG Williams,Deron Uta .587 23.1 4.1 9.4 1.1 3.2 .2 1.83
11.4 SG Bryant,Kobe LAL .539 29.6 5.6 5.0 1.5 3.5 .1 2.04
11.3 PG Paul,Chris NOH .602 19.8 5.1 9.9 3.1 2.6 .0 1.92
10.9 PG Westbrook,Russel Okl .520 22.8 5.5 8.1 2.1 4.0 .3 1.80

9.3 PG Parker,Tony SAS .552 20.9 3.8 8.7 1.5 2.7 .0 1.65
9.1 SG Ginobili,Manu SAS .592 23.5 4.4 5.9 2.0 2.8 .4 1.71
8.8 SG Ellis,Monta GSW .546 21.6 3.0 4.4 2.1 3.1 .2 1.27


Eastern Conference
e82 pos per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
12.1 C Howard,Dwight Orl .563 24.3 15.0 1.2 1.2 3.8 2.5 2.16
10.3 C Horford,Al Atl .599 19.4 11.4 3.4 .8 1.6 1.0 1.79
7.6 C Lopez,Brook NJN .518 20.6 7.0 1.2 .7 2.6 1.6 1.28

14.2 SF James,Lebron Mia .564 26.8 7.0 8.4 1.4 3.6 .4 2.23
11.6 PF Stoudemire,Amare NYK .566 24.8 9.0 2.6 1.0 3.8 2.2 1.82
9.8 PF Bosh,Chris Mia .563 21.4 9.1 2.4 .8 1.8 .7 1.62
9.6 SF Pierce,Paul Bos .606 22.5 6.1 3.9 1.0 2.1 .7 1.60

9.6 PF Garnett,Kevin Bos .572 20.0 12.6 2.6 2.0 1.7 .8 1.92
9.6 PF Smith,Josh Atl .533 18.4 10.1 3.7 1.5 2.8 2.2 1.66
8.2 SF Granger,Danny Ind .522 21.8 5.8 2.5 1.3 2.8 .9 1.36
7.7 PF Brand,Elton Phi .543 16.7 9.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.37

12.4 SG Wade,Dwyane Mia .561 27.8 7.0 5.1 1.6 3.1 1.0 2.14
12.1 PG Rose,Derrick Chi .525 25.4 4.8 8.3 1.1 3.5 .4 1.94
8.1 PG Felton,Raymond NYK .543 16.0 3.5 8.7 1.8 3.3 .2 1.23
7.2 SG Allen,Ray Bos .598 19.5 4.1 3.4 .9 1.7 .1 1.15


Ray Allen was a 'reach' to find 4 guards in the East. Devin Harris was next (6.9) .
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BobboFitos



Joined: 21 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 1:52 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:

[/code]
Ray Allen was a 'reach' to find 4 guards in the East. Devin Harris was next (6.9) .


Per minute, Rondo has to be up towards the top... No?

Rondo/Wade/Rose/Felton looks OK as far as filling out the guards? Seems pretty locked up, unless the coaches do something screwy and/or there's an injury preventing one of those 4 from making it.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 03, 2011 2:34 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Rondo (1.38 eW/484) is just behind Nelson (1.40) and even with Jennings.

Seen here -- http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... i?id=BIRrr

... by WS/48, East guards are ranked: Wade, Rose, Redick, Nelson, Allen, Rondo, Brewer, Augustin, Harris ... Felton at #36 in the league.

By PER, it's Wade, Rose, Harris, Rondo, Stuckey, Felton ... Redick and Brewer in the upper 50s.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 11:39 am Post subject: Reply with quote
On the occasion of the season being 42.4% complete, and to chronicle the meteoric rise of Blake Griffin, a Top 60.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
14.7 James,Lebron Mia 37 .568 27.5 7.1 8.4 1.3 3.6 .4 2.33
12.9 Wade,Dwyane Mia 36 .567 28.8 7.1 5.0 1.5 3.1 1.0 2.22
12.3 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .538 21.8 13.8 3.0 .7 2.7 .6 1.96
12.3 Howard,Dwight Orl 36 .568 24.5 14.8 1.3 1.3 3.8 2.4 2.15
12.0 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .532 25.5 4.7 8.0 1.0 3.5 .5 1.93

11.8 Love,Kevin Min 37 .568 19.7 16.1 2.1 .6 2.4 .3 1.91
11.8 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 38 .569 24.9 9.1 2.7 .9 3.7 2.3 1.85
11.7 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .586 23.1 4.0 9.3 1.1 3.3 .2 1.83
11.7 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .537 29.5 5.8 5.2 1.5 3.4 .1 2.09
11.6 Paul,Chris NOH 35 .601 20.0 5.1 9.8 3.0 2.5 .0 1.95

11.4 Gasol,Pau LAL 38 .562 18.7 10.8 4.1 .6 1.8 1.8 1.78
11.1 Westbrook,Russel Okl 36 .521 23.0 5.5 8.1 2.1 3.9 .3 1.83
10.5 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 35 .621 28.2 8.1 2.7 .7 2.3 .8 2.04
10.4 Durant,Kevin Okl 39 .573 26.9 6.5 2.8 1.1 3.2 1.0 1.78
10.3 Horford,Al Atl 34 .590 19.2 11.3 3.5 .8 1.6 1.1 1.77

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
10.1 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 39 .517 20.2 9.2 1.6 1.0 1.8 1.3 1.54
9.8 Bosh,Chris Mia 36 .561 21.3 9.1 2.4 .9 1.8 .7 1.63
9.7 Pierce,Paul Bos 36 .609 22.7 6.2 3.7 1.0 2.1 .6 1.61
9.6 Randolph,Zach Mem 36 .525 19.9 13.8 1.6 .8 1.8 .3 1.77
9.5 Smith,Josh Atl 34 .532 18.3 10.1 3.8 1.5 2.9 2.1 1.64

9.4 Millsap,Paul Uta 35 .584 19.8 9.3 2.6 1.6 1.5 .9 1.65
9.4 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .557 21.1 3.9 8.4 1.6 2.7 .0 1.67
9.2 West,David NOH 34 .554 22.3 8.1 2.5 1.1 2.1 .9 1.63
9.2 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .528 21.0 9.7 2.9 .7 2.3 1.0 1.65
9.2 Ginobili,Manu SAS 32 .596 23.4 4.6 5.7 2.1 2.9 .4 1.70

9.1 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .521 18.2 12.5 4.1 .9 2.4 2.1 1.86
9.1 Garnett,Kevin Bos 32 .572 20.0 12.6 2.6 2.0 1.7 .8 1.92
8.9 Ellis,Monta GSW 41 .544 21.6 3.1 4.2 2.0 3.0 .2 1.28
8.7 Odom,Lamar LAL 35 .605 17.4 10.4 3.5 .5 2.1 .9 1.48
8.7 Jefferson,Al Uta 36 .506 17.4 9.7 1.9 .5 1.4 1.9 1.44

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.7 Anthony,Carmelo Den 35 .513 24.3 9.2 3.6 1.0 3.2 .6 1.82
8.5 Felton,Raymond NYK 39 .548 16.4 3.5 8.8 1.8 3.2 .2 1.29
8.4 Martin,Kevin Hou 31 .606 27.3 3.9 2.7 .9 2.7 .2 1.58
8.4 Gay,Rudy Mem 40 .558 19.8 5.9 2.5 1.7 2.4 1.1 1.30
8.4 Nash,Steve Phx 32 .620 18.8 4.1 11.8 .7 3.9 .0 1.62

8.3 Gordon,Eric LAC 38 .558 23.3 3.5 3.9 1.1 2.7 .3 1.37
8.2 Granger,Danny Ind 37 .522 21.9 5.8 2.5 1.3 2.8 1.0 1.36
7.7 Brand,Elton Phi 34 .547 16.9 9.9 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.37
7.5 Allen,Ray Bos 37 .608 20.2 4.0 3.3 .9 1.6 .1 1.21
7.5 Lopez,Brook NJN 35 .516 20.5 6.9 1.2 .8 2.6 1.6 1.27

7.4 Chandler,Wilson NYK 35 .581 17.7 6.9 2.1 .7 1.4 1.6 1.25
7.4 Hibbert,Roy Ind 29 .489 17.8 10.3 3.4 .4 2.9 2.3 1.51
7.2 Deng,Luol Chi 39 .531 18.3 6.0 2.0 .7 1.8 .4 1.08
7.2 Beasley,Michael Min 35 .526 21.6 6.8 1.8 .9 2.9 .8 1.29
7.2 Bogut,Andrew Mil 35 .484 14.9 12.4 1.7 .6 1.9 2.9 1.46

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.1 Harris,Devin NJN 32 .545 20.8 3.3 7.4 1.2 3.4 .1 1.40
6.8 Miller,Andre Por 32 .515 15.5 4.6 8.0 2.0 2.9 .1 1.27
6.7 Holiday,Jrue Phi 35 .516 16.2 4.2 6.7 1.4 2.9 .3 1.14
6.7 Noah,Joakim Chi 37 .556 15.5 12.6 2.6 1.2 2.1 1.4 1.52
6.6 Hilario,Nene Den 32 .666 17.7 9.3 2.8 1.0 2.1 .9 1.40

6.6 Kidd,Jason Dal 33 .475 9.8 5.5 10.3 2.1 2.6 .3 1.16
6.5 Okafor,Emeka NOH 32 .575 14.1 12.6 .5 .4 1.8 1.9 1.22
6.5 Jackson,Stephen Cha 36 .527 19.8 5.0 3.9 1.5 3.7 .3 1.15
6.5 Johnson,Joe Atl 36 .502 19.9 4.5 5.3 .7 1.7 .1 1.39
6.4 Camby,Marcus Por 28 .467 8.7 16.6 2.7 1.1 1.5 2.4 1.45

6.4 Rondo,Rajon Bos 38 .529 11.5 5.0 14.1 2.3 4.0 .2 1.45
6.3 Conley,Mike Mem 36 .521 14.2 3.5 7.1 2.0 2.7 .1 1.03
6.3 Jennings,Brandon Mil 36 .491 20.1 4.4 5.5 1.2 2.5 .4 1.38
6.2 Boozer,Carlos Chi 32 .563 25.7 12.5 2.8 .9 3.2 .4 2.08
6.2 Nelson,Jameer Orl 30 .551 18.5 4.0 8.7 1.1 3.1 .0 1.42
6.2 Bargnani,Andrea Tor 35 .542 21.8 6.7 1.6 .6 2.9 .8 1.28
Boozer is one of 6 players over 2.0 eWins per 484 minutes. He's already played more minutes than Shaq.
e82 projections assume players continue to play the % of team minutes they've played to date.
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Mike G



Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 08, 2011 9:40 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Dynamic Duos in the NBA.
On the left, the top 10 ranked by combined eWins per 82 games (projected).
On the right, ranked by % of team eWins projected.
Code:
total tm duo mpg eW/82 %tm %tm tm duo mpg eW/82 total
14.7 Mia James,Lebron 37 14.7 .294 .294 Mia James,Lebron 37 14.7 14.7
27.6 Mia Wade,Dwyane 36 12.9 .551 .551 Mia Wade,Dwyane 36 12.9 27.6

11.7 LAL Bryant,Kobe 33 11.7 .248 .321 LAC Griffin,Blake 37 12.3 12.3
23.1 LAL Gasol,Pau 38 11.4 .491 .535 LAC Gordon,Eric 38 8.3 20.6

11.1 Okl Westbrook,Russel 36 11.1 .260 .333 Min Love,Kevin 37 11.8 11.8
21.5 Okl Durant,Kevin 39 10.4 .505 .535 Min Beasley,Michael 35 7.2 19.0

11.7 Uta Williams,Deron 38 11.7 .260 .260 Okl Westbrook,Russel 36 11.1 11.1
21.1 Uta Millsap,Paul 35 9.4 .469 .505 Okl Durant,Kevin 39 10.4 21.5

11.6 NOH Paul,Chris 35 11.6 .272 .248 LAL Bryant,Kobe 33 11.7 11.7
20.7 NOH West,David 34 9.2 .488 .491 LAL Gasol,Pau 38 11.4 23.1

total tm duo mpg eW/82 %tm %tm tm duo mpg eW/82 total
12.3 LAC Griffin,Blake 37 12.3 .321 .272 NOH Paul,Chris 35 11.6 11.6
20.6 LAC Gordon,Eric 38 8.3 .535 .488 NOH West,David 34 9.2 20.7

11.8 NYK Stoudemire,Amare 38 11.8 .273 .273 NYK Stoudemire,Amare 38 11.8 11.8
20.3 NYK Felton,Raymond 39 8.5 .471 .471 NYK Felton,Raymond 39 8.5 20.3

10.3 Atl Horford,Al 34 10.3 .238 .260 Uta Williams,Deron 38 11.7 11.7
19.8 Atl Smith,Josh 34 9.5 .458 .469 Uta Millsap,Paul 35 9.4 21.1

12.0 Chi Rose,Derrick 38 12.0 .260 .238 Atl Horford,Al 34 10.3 10.3
19.2 Chi Deng,Luol 39 7.2 .417 .458 Atl Smith,Josh 34 9.5 19.8

11.8 Min Love,Kevin 37 11.8 .333 .235 Mem Randolph,Zach 36 9.6 9.6
19.0 Min Beasley,Michael 35 7.2 .535 .439 Mem Gay,Rudy 40 8.4 18.0


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Mike G



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 08, 2011 3:29 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
In a similar vein, teams with prominent 1 thru 3 players.
Code:
total tm Big 3 mpg eW/82 %tm %tm tm Big 3 mpg eW/82 total
14.7 Mia James,Lebron 37 14.7 .294 .294 Mia James,Lebron 37 14.7 14.7
27.6 Mia Wade,Dwyane 36 12.9 .551 .551 Mia Wade,Dwyane 36 12.9 27.6
37.4 Mia Bosh,Chris 36 9.8 .746 .746 Mia Bosh,Chris 36 9.8 37.4

11.7 LAL Bryant,Kobe 33 11.7 .248 .248 LAL Bryant,Kobe 33 11.7 11.7
23.1 LAL Gasol,Pau 38 11.4 .491 .491 LAL Gasol,Pau 38 11.4 23.1
31.8 LAL Odom,Lamar 35 8.7 .677 .677 LAL Odom,Lamar 35 8.7 31.8

11.7 Uta Williams,Deron 38 11.7 .260 .260 Uta Williams,Deron 38 11.7 11.7
21.1 Uta Millsap,Paul 35 9.4 .469 .469 Uta Millsap,Paul 35 9.4 21.1
29.8 Uta Jefferson,Al 36 8.7 .662 .662 Uta Jefferson,Al 36 8.7 29.8

9.4 SAS Parker,Tony 33 9.4 .192 .272 NOH Paul,Chris 35 11.6 11.6
18.5 SAS Ginobili,Manu 32 9.2 .380 .488 NOH West,David 34 9.2 20.7
27.7 SAS Duncan,Tim 29 9.1 .567 .642 NOH Okafor,Emeka 32 6.5 27.3

11.8 NYK Stoudemire,Amare 38 11.8 .273 .273 NYK Stoudemire,Amare 38 11.8 11.8
20.3 NYK Felton,Raymond 39 8.5 .471 .471 NYK Felton,Raymond 39 8.5 20.3
27.6 NYK Chandler,Wilson 35 7.4 .642 .642 NYK Chandler,Wilson 35 7.4 27.6

total tm Big 3 mpg eW/82 %tm %tm tm Big 3 mpg eW/82 total
11.6 NOH Paul,Chris 35 11.6 .272 .333 Min Love,Kevin 37 11.8 11.8
20.7 NOH West,David 34 9.2 .488 .535 Min Beasley,Michael 35 7.2 19.0
27.3 NOH Okafor,Emeka 32 6.5 .642 .640 Min Milicic,Darko 24 3.7 22.7

11.1 Okl Westbrook,Russel 36 11.1 .260 .321 LAC Griffin,Blake 37 12.3 12.3
21.5 Okl Durant,Kevin 39 10.4 .505 .535 LAC Gordon,Eric 38 8.3 20.6
26.5 Okl Ibaka,Serge 26 5.0 .622 .634 LAC Jordan,Deandre 24 3.8 24.4

9.7 Bos Pierce,Paul 36 9.7 .198 .260 Okl Westbrook,Russel 36 11.1 11.1
18.8 Bos Garnett,Kevin 32 9.1 .382 .505 Okl Durant,Kevin 39 10.4 21.5
26.4 Bos Allen,Ray 37 7.5 .535 .622 Okl Ibaka,Serge 26 5.0 26.5

10.3 Atl Horford,Al 34 10.3 .238 .238 Atl Horford,Al 34 10.3 10.3
19.8 Atl Smith,Josh 34 9.5 .458 .458 Atl Smith,Josh 34 9.5 19.8
26.2 Atl Johnson,Joe 36 6.5 .608 .608 Atl Johnson,Joe 36 6.5 26.2

12.0 Chi Rose,Derrick 38 12.0 .260 .235 Mem Randolph,Zach 36 9.6 9.6
19.2 Chi Deng,Luol 39 7.2 .417 .439 Mem Gay,Rudy 40 8.4 18.0
25.8 Chi Noah,Joakim 37 6.7 .562 .593 Mem Conley,Mike 36 6.3 24.3


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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 6:16 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Season 48.2% over.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
13.5 James,Lebron Mia 36 .568 27.0 7.2 7.8 1.4 3.6 .4 2.21
12.3 Wade,Dwyane Mia 35 .562 27.7 6.9 4.8 1.4 2.9 1.1 2.10
12.2 Rose,Derrick Chi 37 .536 26.0 4.7 7.7 1.0 3.4 .6 1.94
12.0 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .540 21.6 13.3 3.0 .7 2.6 .6 1.89
11.9 Howard,Dwight Orl 34 .574 23.9 14.5 1.3 1.2 3.6 2.3 2.05

11.7 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .542 29.5 5.7 5.3 1.4 3.2 .1 2.08
11.6 Love,Kevin Min 37 .575 19.7 15.7 2.1 .6 2.3 .3 1.85
11.5 Gasol,Pau LAL 38 .566 19.1 10.9 4.2 .7 1.8 1.9 1.81
11.4 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 37 .556 24.5 9.1 2.9 .9 3.5 2.3 1.81
11.2 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .585 22.4 4.0 9.3 1.1 3.2 .2 1.75

11.2 Westbrook,Russel Okl 36 .518 22.3 5.6 8.5 1.9 3.7 .4 1.83
10.8 Paul,Chris NOH 35 .599 19.3 4.6 9.6 2.8 2.5 .1 1.80
10.4 Durant,Kevin Okl 35 .585 26.9 6.3 2.8 1.0 3.1 .9 1.73
10.1 Horford,Al Atl 35 .592 18.6 11.2 3.6 .8 1.5 1.1 1.73
10.1 Randolph,Zach Mem 33 .532 20.6 14.1 1.6 .7 1.9 .4 1.81

10.0 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 39 .524 20.7 9.1 1.9 1.0 2.0 1.1 1.53
9.5 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .613 22.8 6.2 3.6 1.1 1.9 .6 1.61
9.3 Bosh,Chris Mia 36 .554 20.8 9.0 2.2 .8 1.8 .7 1.55
9.3 Smith,Josh Atl 35 .526 18.0 10.1 3.8 1.4 2.8 2.0 1.59
9.2 West,David NOH 34 .549 22.1 8.2 2.5 .9 2.0 .9 1.60

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.1 Ginobili,Manu SAS 32 .593 23.5 4.8 5.6 2.1 2.8 .5 1.70
9.1 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .518 18.1 12.2 4.0 .9 2.2 2.5 1.84
9.1 Millsap,Paul Uta 34 .582 19.6 9.4 2.6 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.60
8.9 Ellis,Monta GSW 41 .548 21.7 3.0 4.4 2.0 2.9 .2 1.29
8.8 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .549 20.2 3.7 8.5 1.5 2.7 .0 1.58

8.8 Odom,Lamar LAL 34 .603 17.6 10.6 3.5 .6 2.0 .9 1.51
8.8 Jefferson,Al Uta 35 .515 17.4 10.0 1.9 .5 1.3 2.0 1.46
8.8 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 27 .617 27.3 8.2 2.6 .7 2.2 .8 1.94
8.8 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .528 20.5 9.6 2.7 .8 2.4 .9 1.56
8.5 Nash,Steve Phx 31 .617 18.6 4.3 11.9 .7 3.9 .0 1.62

8.4 Felton,Raymond NYK 39 .535 16.0 3.8 8.8 1.8 3.1 .2 1.28
8.4 Anthony,Carmelo Den 29 .515 23.6 9.0 3.4 .9 2.9 .7 1.73
8.2 Gordon,Eric LAC 36 .564 23.1 3.4 3.8 1.1 2.6 .4 1.35
8.1 Gay,Rudy Mem 38 .560 19.6 5.8 2.3 1.6 2.4 1.0 1.24
7.9 Granger,Danny Ind 36 .524 21.3 5.5 2.7 1.2 2.7 1.0 1.30

7.6 Garnett,Kevin Bos 24 .572 19.5 12.6 2.6 2.0 1.7 .8 1.85
7.6 Martin,Kevin Hou 30 .605 26.5 3.8 2.7 .9 2.6 .2 1.50
7.5 Brand,Elton Phi 34 .554 16.4 9.6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.30
7.4 Allen,Ray Bos 36 .625 20.1 4.3 3.2 .9 1.6 .1 1.21
7.3 Lopez,Brook NJN 34 .528 20.7 6.8 1.2 .7 2.6 1.6 1.25
'Minutes' are per game that the team has played.
e82 = eWins in 82 games at this mpg.

#41-50 - Bogut, Deng, Wilson Chandler, Boozer, Andre Miller, Hibbert, Rondo, Joe Johnson, Stephen Jackson, Okafor
51-60 - Nene, Holiday, Bargnani, Beasley, Augustin, Devin Harris, Camby, Conley, Kidd, Dorell Wright
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:35 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Of players with at least 320 minutes, nobody has a better 'Scoring' rate and a better effective shooting % than these players:
Code:
per36 rates tm Eff% Sco
Bryant,Kobe LAL .542 29.5
Wade,Dwyane Mia .562 27.7
Nowitzki,Dirk Dal .617 27.3
Allen,Ray Bos .625 20.1
O'Neal,Shaquille Bos .649 19.7
Hilario,Nene Den .673 18.0
Chandler,Tyson Dal .706 13.4
Paul Pierce just misses at .613 and 22.8
First in the list is the league's top Sco rate.
At bottom is the top Eff%
(Eff% = Pts/(FGA*2 + FTA)
Eff% is a component of Sco rate, so there's some blurrage here.

Nobody is a better Scorer and Rebounder than these players:
Code:
per36 rates tm Sco Reb
Bryant,Kobe LAL 29.5 5.7
Wade,Dwyane Mia 27.7 6.9
Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 27.3 8.2
Boozer,Carlos Chi 25.7 12.3
Howard,Dwight Orl 23.9 14.5
Love,Kevin Min 19.7 15.7
Camby,Marcus Por 7.9 16.0
Evans,Reggie Tor 4.9 17.9

Scoring and Assists:
Code:
per36 rates tm Sco Ast
Bryant,Kobe LAL 29.5 5.3
James,Lebron Mia 27.0 7.8
Williams,Deron Uta 22.4 9.3
Paul,Chris NOH 19.3 9.6
Nash,Steve Phx 18.6 11.9
Rondo,Rajon Bos 11.8 13.7
Derrick Rose just missing at 26.0 - 7.7

From best rebounder to best assister, nobody rebounds and assists like:
Code:
per36 rates tm Reb Ast
Evans,Reggie Tor 17.9 1.7
Camby,Marcus Por 16.0 2.9
Griffin,Blake LAC 13.3 3.0
Duncan,Tim SAS 12.2 4.0
Gasol,Pau LAL 10.9 4.2
Miller,Brad Hou 7.6 4.9
James,Lebron Mia 7.2 7.8
Westbrook,Russel Okl 5.6 8.5
Kidd,Jason Dal 5.5 9.4
Rondo,Rajon Bos 5.0 13.7
This list would be even longer, but Rondo's a pretty good rebounder.

A short list might be of rebounder/shotblockers:
Code:
per36 rates tm Reb Blk
Evans,Reggie Tor 17.9 .4
Camby,Marcus Por 16.0 2.4
Bogut,Andrew Mil 12.8 2.9
Dalembert,Samuel Sac 12.0 3.1
Mcgee,Javale Was 11.5 3.5
McGee by a whisker over Darko Milicic.

Another short list might be assists and steals:
Code:
per36 rates tm Ast Stl
Rondo,Rajon Bos 13.7 2.3
Paul,Chris NOH 9.6 2.8
Allen,Tony Mem 2.4 3.6


A longer list would be expected from disparate skills like Ast and Blk:
Code:
per36 rates tm Ast Blk
Rondo,Rajon Bos 13.7 .17
Kidd,Jason Dal 9.4 .34
Westbrook,Russel Okl 8.5 .43
Davis,Baron LAC 8.4 .67
Teague,Jeff Atl 5.2 .94
Wade,Dwyane Mia 4.8 1.10
Gasol,Pau LAL 4.2 1.87
Duncan,Tim SAS 4.0 2.51
Milicic,Darko Min 2.5 3.52
Mcgee,Javale Was .5 3.54


Or Reb and Stl:
Code:
per36 rates tm Reb Stl
Evans,Reggie Tor 17.9 1.71
Dorsey,Joey Tor 14.2 1.75
Blair,Dejuan SAS 12.7 2.11
Brewer,Ronnie Chi 5.5 2.19
Rondo,Rajon Bos 5.0 2.33
Allen,Tony Mem 4.9 3.63

Evans just sets a very high standard to start with.

Not the dreaded Ast/TO, but most Ast with fewest TO:
Code:
per36 rates tm Ast TO
Rondo,Rajon Bos 13.7 3.93
Nash,Steve Phx 11.9 3.86
Paul,Chris NOH 9.6 2.46
Calderon,Jose Tor 9.4 2.39
Jeter,Eugene Sac 6.9 2.01
Turkoglu,Hedo Orl 6.9 1.97
Augustin,D.J. Cha 6.1 1.73
Iguodala,Andre Phi 5.2 1.70
Dooling,Keyon Mil 5.0 1.69
Miller,Brad Hou 4.9 1.65
Arroyo,Carlos Mia 4.1 1.42
Fisher,Derek LAL 4.1 1.39
Artest,Ron LAL 3.0 1.26
House,Eddie Mia 2.9 .95
Moon,Jamario Cle 1.7 .89
Cardinal,Brian Dal 1.5 .64
Bonner,Matt SAS 1.4 .59
Jones,James Mia 1.2 .38
James Jones with 10 turnovers in 916 minutes.
Hedo's Phx numbers were 3.3 Ast and 1.78 TO
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Crow



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:01 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I think I've got the hang of how each table works.

If I counted right, the top seven teams on SRS have 35 of the 73 listings. Boston 7, Miami 8, Orlando 2, Chicago 2, Spurs 4, Lakers 7, Dallas 5. Not making any immediate or sweeping conclusion from that, just trying to spot a trend to think further about.

It also might help put the exceptional nature of each skill pair achievement in sharper perspective if you checked how many guys were within a fixed part of a standard deviation (say equal to 10% of the population?) from being equal to the named players on the second skill. You usually can't get the very top guys in anything but how many near facsimiles are there out there and are any of them much more attainable and / or affordable?


The reverse study, where no one is worse for both skills in the skill pair, would probably be interesting to see as well, especially for those over say 25 minutes per game.



Different question but if you could pick one skill pair for a "double top" performance (say top 10% on each) which would you pick? In general or by position or team role?

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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 10:03 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Season now 53% completed, jockeying continues for "Who, if Not LeBron?"

Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
13.9 James,Lebron Mia 36 .577 27.5 7.3 7.8 1.4 3.5 .4 2.26
12.5 Rose,Derrick Chi 37 .538 26.4 4.7 7.7 1.0 3.4 .7 1.98
12.3 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .559 22.3 13.4 3.2 .7 2.7 .6 1.94
12.2 Howard,Dwight Orl 34 .597 24.8 14.4 1.3 1.2 3.5 2.2 2.10
12.0 Wade,Dwyane Mia 34 .575 27.7 6.9 4.8 1.4 3.0 1.1 2.07

11.6 Bryant,Kobe LAL 33 .555 29.0 5.8 5.5 1.4 3.2 .1 2.05
11.5 Love,Kevin Min 37 .586 19.8 15.6 2.1 .6 2.3 .3 1.84
11.3 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 37 .562 24.4 9.0 2.7 1.0 3.5 2.2 1.80
11.3 Gasol,Pau LAL 37 .578 19.2 10.7 4.0 .6 1.8 1.9 1.77
11.3 Westbrook,Russel Okl 36 .536 22.8 5.5 8.4 1.9 3.8 .4 1.84

11.1 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .598 22.1 4.0 9.3 1.1 3.3 .2 1.74
10.9 Paul,Chris NOH 35 .603 19.4 4.6 9.7 2.7 2.3 .1 1.83
10.4 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 39 .537 21.3 9.1 1.9 1.0 2.0 1.1 1.57
10.3 Durant,Kevin Okl 36 .589 26.5 6.3 2.6 1.0 3.0 .9 1.70
10.1 Randolph,Zach Mem 33 .537 20.6 14.1 1.5 .7 1.9 .3 1.79

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.7 Horford,Al Atl 33 .597 18.7 11.1 3.6 .8 1.5 1.2 1.73
9.5 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .630 23.0 6.3 3.5 1.1 1.9 .6 1.62
9.4 West,David NOH 34 .565 22.5 8.4 2.5 1.0 2.2 1.0 1.64
9.1 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .522 17.7 12.4 4.2 .8 2.2 2.6 1.83
9.0 Smith,Josh Atl 35 .533 17.9 10.0 3.6 1.4 2.8 1.9 1.53

9.0 Ellis,Monta GSW 41 .549 21.7 3.1 4.5 2.0 3.0 .2 1.29
8.9 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 28 .615 27.0 7.9 2.7 .7 2.2 .7 1.91
8.9 Ginobili,Manu SAS 31 .592 23.2 4.6 5.8 2.0 2.8 .5 1.67
8.9 Bosh,Chris Mia 34 .565 20.9 9.0 2.2 .8 1.7 .7 1.54
8.8 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .567 20.6 3.8 8.3 1.5 2.8 .0 1.59

8.7 Odom,Lamar LAL 34 .619 17.9 10.6 3.4 .6 2.0 .9 1.52
8.7 Jefferson,Al Uta 35 .519 17.6 10.1 1.9 .5 1.4 2.0 1.46
8.7 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .533 20.2 9.5 2.7 .8 2.2 .8 1.54
8.6 Millsap,Paul Uta 33 .580 19.1 9.4 2.5 1.5 1.7 .9 1.54
8.6 Anthony,Carmelo Den 29 .525 23.8 8.8 3.2 1.0 2.7 .7 1.74

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.6 Nash,Steve Phx 31 .634 18.5 4.3 12.0 .7 3.9 .0 1.62
8.4 Gordon,Eric LAC 36 .587 23.5 3.2 3.9 1.2 2.5 .3 1.38
8.0 Granger,Danny Ind 36 .544 21.5 5.6 2.8 1.2 2.7 .9 1.32
7.9 Felton,Raymond NYK 39 .529 15.6 3.6 8.6 1.7 3.2 .2 1.21
7.9 Gay,Rudy Mem 39 .557 19.2 5.8 2.4 1.5 2.3 1.0 1.21

7.8 Martin,Kevin Hou 30 .615 27.1 3.6 2.7 .9 2.5 .2 1.54
7.7 Garnett,Kevin Bos 25 .580 19.9 12.0 2.6 2.0 1.8 .8 1.83
7.4 Lopez,Brook NJN 34 .544 21.2 6.8 1.3 .7 2.7 1.7 1.28
7.3 Allen,Ray Bos 36 .629 19.9 4.3 3.2 .9 1.6 .1 1.19
7.3 Brand,Elton Phi 34 .553 16.2 9.4 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.26

41-50 - Deng, Bogut, Joe Johnson, Andre Miller, Rondo, Okafor, Nene, Jrue, Boozer, Augustin

51-60 - Wilson Chandler, Harris, Hibbert, Beasley, Bargnani, Curry, St Jackson, Jamison, Prince, Tyreke
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 10:37 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Somehow, more than a month went by without any update here.
To make up for it, a top 60, in eWins projected to the whole season (now 72% completed).
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
14.1 James,Lebron Mia 38 .566 27.8 7.6 7.7 1.5 3.5 .6 2.25
12.9 Howard,Dwight Orl 37 .595 25.9 14.8 1.3 1.3 3.3 2.2 2.14
12.5 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .532 27.0 4.6 8.0 1.0 3.4 .6 1.98
11.9 Wade,Dwyane Mia 37 .564 27.9 7.2 4.9 1.4 3.1 .9 2.02
11.9 Griffin,Blake LAC 38 .535 22.1 13.3 3.2 .6 2.6 .5 1.84

11.6 Bryant,Kobe LAL 34 .545 29.3 6.1 5.5 1.3 3.3 .1 2.02
11.5 Love,Kevin Min 37 .585 20.1 16.0 2.2 .6 2.1 .3 1.85
11.0 Westbrook,Russel Okl 35 .522 23.1 5.5 8.8 1.8 3.9 .4 1.84
11.0 Gasol,Pau LAL 37 .578 19.9 10.9 3.7 .6 1.8 1.7 1.75
10.9 Durant,Kevin Okl 40 .574 27.0 7.2 2.6 1.0 2.8 .9 1.74

10.8 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 40 .542 22.0 9.3 2.0 1.1 1.9 1.2 1.61
10.8 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 37 .558 25.1 8.6 2.8 1.0 3.4 2.2 1.76
10.6 Paul,Chris NOH 36 .583 18.8 4.4 9.6 2.5 2.4 .0 1.74
10.1 Randolph,Zach Mem 37 .525 20.8 14.1 1.8 .7 1.9 .4 1.76
9.8 Williams,Deron NJN 38 .575 21.6 4.1 9.3 1.2 3.4 .2 1.67

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.2 West,David NOH 35 .554 22.2 8.9 2.5 1.0 2.1 .9 1.59
9.2 Smith,Josh Atl 35 .533 18.8 9.9 3.5 1.4 2.8 1.8 1.55
9.1 Horford,Al Atl 35 .592 18.3 11.1 3.7 .8 1.5 1.1 1.65
9.1 Anthony,Carmelo Den 35 .536 25.3 8.3 3.0 .9 2.9 .6 1.70
9.0 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .600 23.1 5.8 3.5 1.1 2.1 .6 1.53

9.0 Ginobili,Manu SAS 31 .567 23.3 4.8 6.2 1.9 2.7 .4 1.71
9.0 Nash,Steve Phx 33 .613 18.4 4.2 12.6 .7 4.0 .1 1.65
8.9 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 34 .607 26.8 7.6 2.8 .6 2.1 .8 1.82
8.9 Jefferson,Al Uta 35 .522 18.4 10.3 1.6 .6 1.2 2.0 1.49
8.8 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .516 18.2 12.4 3.9 .8 2.1 2.6 1.80

8.7 Ellis,Monta GSW 41 .528 21.3 3.1 4.4 2.0 3.0 .2 1.25
8.6 Parker,Tony SAS 32 .560 21.1 3.8 8.1 1.4 2.8 .0 1.58
8.5 Millsap,Paul Uta 34 .567 19.2 9.4 2.6 1.5 1.9 .9 1.49
8.4 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .525 20.3 9.6 2.9 .8 2.1 .7 1.51
8.2 Garnett,Kevin Bos 32 .559 20.0 11.9 3.1 1.8 1.8 .9 1.82

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.1 Bosh,Chris Mia 36 .545 20.2 8.8 2.1 .8 1.7 .7 1.42
8.0 Odom,Lamar LAL 33 .595 17.5 10.5 3.4 .7 1.9 .9 1.45
8.0 Martin,Kevin Hou 31 .596 27.4 3.9 2.8 1.2 2.6 .2 1.56
7.9 Granger,Danny Ind 36 .549 21.9 5.8 2.8 1.1 2.8 .8 1.32
7.7 Felton,Raymond Den 39 .518 15.5 3.4 8.9 1.7 3.1 .2 1.24

7.6 Brand,Elton Phi 35 .559 17.2 9.9 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.33
7.5 Deng,Luol Chi 39 .539 18.3 6.2 2.5 .8 1.8 .5 1.12
7.4 Lopez,Brook NJN 34 .528 21.2 6.8 1.4 .7 2.4 1.6 1.26
7.3 Gay,Rudy Mem 40 .540 19.0 6.2 2.6 1.5 2.3 1.0 1.23
7.3 Miller,Andre Por 33 .518 15.9 4.9 8.3 1.7 2.9 .2 1.33

7.2 Rondo,Rajon Bos 38 .520 11.8 4.9 12.6 2.2 3.7 .1 1.40
7.2 Allen,Ray Bos 36 .612 20.2 4.0 3.0 .9 1.5 .2 1.17
7.1 Jackson,Stephen Cha 37 .519 20.4 5.0 3.5 1.3 3.1 .4 1.18
7.1 Johnson,Joe Atl 36 .521 21.0 4.6 5.2 .7 2.1 .1 1.38
7.0 Boozer,Carlos Chi 32 .559 24.5 12.1 2.8 .8 2.9 .4 1.87

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.9 Bogut,Andrew Mil 36 .472 13.7 12.5 2.0 .6 1.8 2.9 1.35
6.5 Conley,Mike Mem 36 .522 14.9 3.5 6.7 1.7 2.4 .2 1.08
6.5 Holiday,Jrue Phi 35 .521 15.4 4.3 6.5 1.6 2.8 .4 1.10
6.4 Curry,Stephen GSW 34 .593 20.0 3.9 5.7 1.9 3.2 .3 1.30
6.4 Jamison,Antawn Cle 33 .509 18.5 7.6 1.6 1.0 1.5 .6 1.21

6.4 Hilario,Nene Den 31 .661 18.1 9.1 2.6 1.2 2.1 1.1 1.36
6.4 Hibbert,Roy Ind 28 .487 17.4 10.4 2.9 .4 2.9 2.4 1.37
6.3 Kidd,Jason Dal 33 .501 9.6 5.5 9.5 1.8 2.5 .4 1.12
6.3 Harris,Devin Uta 32 .530 18.1 3.0 8.0 1.2 3.4 .1 1.23
6.3 Bargnani,Andrea Tor 36 .528 21.4 6.1 1.6 .6 2.6 .8 1.17

6.3 Augustin,D.J. Cha 33 .555 16.8 3.3 6.3 .7 2.0 .1 1.11
6.2 Iguodala,Andre Phi 37 .522 14.8 6.1 5.9 1.5 1.8 .5 1.25
6.0 Gordon,Eric LAC 38 .574 23.8 3.3 4.0 1.2 2.5 .3 1.38
6.0 Lee,David GSW 36 .527 15.7 9.7 3.1 .9 2.5 .4 1.16
5.9 Cousins,Demarcus Sac 27 .470 17.9 11.8 2.4 1.2 4.0 1.0 1.30

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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 12:19 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
It's interesting how high you have Rose. I assume that's due to his usage?
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DSMok1



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:27 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
I have Rose 3rd as well, behind Lebron and CP3.
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:42 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
DSMok1 wrote:
I have Rose 3rd as well, behind Lebron and CP3.


I have played around a bit with implementing a usage credit in ezPM, but it's not completely worked out yet. The basic idea is that teammates "pay" players to make shots and assists.
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Statman



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:15 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
DSMok1 wrote:
I have Rose 3rd as well, behind Lebron and CP3.


At All Star break - I had LeBron, Howard, CP3, Rose, Wade, & Love - in order - as a solid top 6. I think my metric sides slightly more toward the efficiency & assists than Mike G's - slightly less on usage.
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 4:14 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Statman wrote:
DSMok1 wrote:
I have Rose 3rd as well, behind Lebron and CP3.


At All Star break - I had LeBron, Howard, CP3, Rose, Wade, & Love - in order - as a solid top 6. I think my metric sides slightly more toward the efficiency & assists than Mike G's - slightly less on usage.


My top 6 right now are James, Howard, Nash, Paul, Wade, and Love. Rose is #51.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 4:30 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Rose is currently 8th in b-r.com's Win Shares, 15th in WS/48, 12th in PER.
I have him 5th in eWins/Min.

It seems I regularly see his name in MVP discussions.
50 players better or more valuable? I'm not sure that passes the laugh test.
Now that both Boozer and Noah are in the lineup, it'll be interesting to see if his efficiency rises. He's been exerting almost a superhuman amount of energy so far, in carrying the Bulls, who are one of the top 6 teams in the league.

I don't think 'Usage' has any value in and of itself. Rose is a great 'finisher', he can score in many difficult situations, he can always get some kind of shot off. These may seem to be just cliche's, but they add up to a lot of points that others likely wouldn't be getting.

Or you might argue that his offensive virtuosity allows the Bulls to have good defensive players on the floor at all times. So he scores a high % of what the rest of the NBA scores vs his team.
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 5:18 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:

I don't think 'Usage' has any value in and of itself. Rose is a great 'finisher', he can score in many difficult situations, he can always get some kind of shot off. These may seem to be just cliche's, but they add up to a lot of points that others likely wouldn't be getting.



Maybe. But his team is only +2 net when he's on the floor versus off. This pales in comparison to Paul (+13.47), Nash (+19.50), and Rondo (+7.4). Those would get my vote before Rose.
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 5:30 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Apparently, this is a timely topic (and no, I didn't read this before making my last post):

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8946
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Mike G



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Posts: 3561
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 5:52 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
According to http://basketballvalue.com/index.php
... Rose is 8th in the league with 1-yr adjusted +/- of 12.39 .
His 2-yr is just 0.63.
And I've got him as the league's most improved.

Are unadjusted +/- rates more significant than adjusted? Don't they include garbage time, bench strength, and other irrelevancies?

Code:
APM Min/G perG
Nash 14.2 33.4 9.88
Paul 13.3 35.9 9.91
Rose 12.4 37.9 9.78

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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 6:08 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
According to http://basketballvalue.com/index.php
... Rose is 8th in the league with 1-yr adjusted +/- of 12.39 .
His 2-yr is just 0.63.
And I've got him as the league's most improved.


I'll see your 1-yr Adj. +/- and raise you his 1-yr RAPM of +2.5.

Let's meet back here in three years and look at his 3-yr numbers in 2014, and then we can settle this. Wink

As the saying goes, trust but wait 3 yrs to verify.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 01, 2011 7:05 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Also seen at that bbvalue link: Rose has the 2nd largest Std Error in the league, 10.15, so he may be a lot better, or worse.

I've really got little understanding of this stuff -- like why is Keyon Dooling the 3rd best player in the league? -- but the Bulls are like this in APM (1 yr) :
Code:
added Bulls APM Min.
549 Rose,Derrick 12.39 2125
86 Deng,Luol 1.85 2237
71 Asik,Omer 5.14 663
20 Watson,C.J. 1.28 746
15 Brewer,Ronnie 0.55 1319

- 13 Korver,Kyle -0.53 1177
- 57 Boozer,Carlos -2.16 1267
- 73 Noah,Joakim -3.63 967
- 78 Bogans,Keith -3.75 999
-108 Gibson,Taj -4.22 1231
-120 Thomas,Kurt -6.62 873

291 total 5.10
Rose is believed to have been the catalyst in outscoring opponents by 549 points. All other Bulls sum to -258 .

According to APM, without Rose the Bulls are a -4.5 PPG-differential team.
That's worse than the Pistons (-4.1, headed to ~29 wins).
And that's IF his minutes could be replaced by 0 APM guys -- Watson, Brewer, Korver.
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greyberger



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 01, 2011 1:29 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
1-year's APM might not be enough in some cases to be considered an improvement over unadjusted +/-. Case in point:

Deng has been on court with Rose 90% of the time that Rose is on the court. That might explain why the APM for these players has such a high standard error relative to minutes played. Frankly I think 1 year APM is struggling with the extreme co-linearity and is letting outside lineups inform the Deng/Rose combo too much.

Last year they were paired together 85% of Deng's total minutes, and APM came to the opposite conclusion - Rose pegged at -2.11 SE~5, Deng at 7.42 SE~5. Again, the standard error was high relative to the number of minutes logged, for what it's worth.
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Mogilny



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 01, 2011 2:19 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
greyberger wrote:
1-year's APM might not be enough in some cases to be considered an improvement over unadjusted +/-. Case in point:

Deng has been on court with Rose 90% of the time that Rose is on the court. That might explain why the APM for these players has such a high standard error relative to minutes played. Frankly I think 1 year APM is struggling with the extreme co-linearity and is letting outside lineups inform the Deng/Rose combo too much.

Last year they were paired together 85% of Deng's total minutes, and APM came to the opposite conclusion - Rose pegged at -2.11 SE~5, Deng at 7.42 SE~5. Again, the standard error was high relative to the number of minutes logged, for what it's worth.

Sounds like a reasonable explanation. I recall the Sedin brothers having the same problem in the APM for hockey - sky high standard error relative to minutes played since those two guys always play together.

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Qscience



Joined: 22 Jun 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2011 5:10 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike G wrote:
According to http://basketballvalue.com/index.php
... Rose is 8th in the league with 1-yr adjusted +/- of 12.39 .
His 2-yr is just 0.63.
And I've got him as the league's most improved.

Are unadjusted +/- rates more significant than adjusted? Don't they include garbage time, bench strength, and other irrelevancies?

Code:
APM Min/G perG
Nash 14.2 33.4 9.88
Paul 13.3 35.9 9.91
Rose 12.4 37.9 9.78


I still believe that Kevin Love is the most improved because you are talking about a player that has nowhere near the supporting cast and the offense is not built or predicated around him.
Derrick Rose is a special player and there is very little separating the two probably in improvement, but I just look at the pieces added and how/whom the offense is run through. Ill say Kevin by a nose =)
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2011 5:14 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Qscience wrote:
and the offense is not built or predicated around him.


Why? I mean that as a serious question.
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Crow



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:14 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Love's usage level is not super high but it did nudge upwards again this season.

The % of his shots coming in the first 10 seconds (featured opportunities?) went up from 43% last season to 47% this season. By comparison, Griffin is currently at 41%. Beasley at 35%. Jefferson was 27% with the Wolves last season so this time slice alone may not be the best way to look at being highlighted for everyone. But Love getting more shots earlier seems worth noting with regard to the question of whether the offense is to some mild degree being built around him.


Love is a very strong offensive rebounder. That can work very well with frequent (and good) 3 point shooting. Minny was about bottom 5 on 3 pt game last season but thru the various moves now sit at 8th best on 3 pt FG% and 10th on 3 point attempts. That part of the design looks good, with lots of progress, however that much is not necessarily enough for a good offense. It does look built with Love in mind in a significant though less immediate or glamorous way.


And this offensive combo would look better accompanied by good or at least adequate defense. Darko, Tolliver, Pekovic and Rambis (with Laimbeer) may be right thinking on wanting interior defense but not yet successful. On team defensive efficiency while on the court only 1 of those 3 players is strong right now and then Love is the 3rd worst on the team.

They need more decent or better defensive players (inside and probably outside too) or a better scheme / Coach or both. Tolliver was probably a good call. Darko might be an ok call for a role (3 versions of RAPM of different length and time periods split on him one positive, one neutral and 1 negative, so if I guess they got a reasonable return on current defensive Adjusted +/-, near the center of the estimates, if they looked at it or gave it any weight.), but a player with a mostly one side of the court role puts more pressure on the offense of others. On the flipside, Pekovic might look alright by boxscore offensive stats (if you choose to rely on them solely) but by traditional Adjusted +/- he looks mildly negative on defense and quite negative overall so far and that may be a concern to some as it seems likely to be contributing to the problem appearing on the scoreboard even if not in the boxscore. He could be the innocent early victim of a heavy rain of "random" "noise" in a small sample. They certainly can hope that but between leaning toward that argument (or believing it) and being worried I'd currently lean toward being at least somewhat worried.

To succeed to the level of making the playoffs the offense will also need to markedly improve at least one lagging Factor, probably 2. Love is not a large problem on any of these but maybe he can shoot even better in the future. Whether he can or should shoot more, I haven't reviewed and don't have a strong opinion on (probably not much higher) but they probably will need better shooting from others too in any scenario.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:21 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Qscience wrote:

I still believe that Kevin Love is the most improved ...

There is a Most Improved thread --
http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... c&start=26

By several measures, at least a dozen other players would seem to be more improved. Love has improved and gotten more minutes; he's been consistent and had some huge games of late. But he's got a long way to go.
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Qscience



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:35 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Mike wasnt trying to hijack the thread I got off on a tangent of sorts. Good to see the thread updating about once a month.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Sat Mar 05, 2011 6:54 am Post subject: Reply with quote
No problemo; I started it, using Rose's "improvement" from 2-yr to 1-yr APM, corroborating perhaps his heading my MIP list.
But it does startle me that anyone makes arguments based on unadjusted +/- still, with all its anomalies.
Analogous is an argument that uses a player's teammates to gauge his individual improvement. Such arguments go both ways: Rose leads a bunch of underachievers to a great record, while Love leads a bunch of losers in statistics.

Anyway, discussions in the MIP thread are highly encouraged.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 8:36 am Post subject: Reply with quote
This season is 82.5% complete.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
14.3 James,Lebron Mia 39 .569 27.5 7.6 7.5 1.4 3.3 .6 2.26
12.9 Howard,Dwight Orl 38 .594 25.2 14.9 1.4 1.2 3.5 2.3 2.12
12.9 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .526 27.4 4.6 7.9 1.1 3.4 .6 2.04
12.1 Wade,Dwyane Mia 37 .561 27.8 7.0 4.9 1.4 3.2 1.0 2.03
11.7 Bryant,Kobe LAL 34 .539 29.4 5.9 5.4 1.3 3.2 .1 2.05

11.7 Love,Kevin Min 36 .581 20.1 16.3 2.3 .6 2.2 .4 1.90
11.6 Griffin,Blake LAC 38 .533 21.8 12.9 3.2 .6 2.6 .5 1.82
11.4 Westbrook,Russel Okl 35 .526 23.8 5.2 9.1 1.9 4.1 .4 1.92
11.3 Durant,Kevin Okl 39 .579 27.2 7.2 2.7 1.0 2.7 .9 1.81
11.1 Gasol,Pau LAL 37 .575 20.1 10.6 3.7 .6 1.7 1.6 1.76

10.9 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 40 .541 22.1 9.1 2.0 1.0 1.9 1.1 1.62
10.9 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 37 .562 25.5 8.5 2.8 1.0 3.4 2.0 1.78
10.7 Paul,Chris NOH 36 .584 19.0 4.5 9.6 2.5 2.3 .1 1.81
10.2 Randolph,Zach Mem 37 .534 20.9 13.9 1.9 .8 2.0 .3 1.77
9.6 Anthony,Carmelo NYK 36 .550 25.7 6.6 3.4 .7 3.0 .2 1.61

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.6 Jefferson,Al Uta 36 .528 19.2 10.6 1.7 .6 1.3 2.0 1.57
9.5 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 34 .614 27.2 7.8 2.8 .5 2.0 .7 1.88
9.2 Williams,Deron NJN 39 .441 13.2 4.5 11.6 1.5 3.8 .3 1.33
9.2 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .605 23.1 6.0 3.6 1.1 2.2 .7 1.56
9.0 West,David NOH 35 .548 21.7 8.9 2.5 1.0 2.1 .9 1.57

9.0 Ellis,Monta GSW 41 .528 21.5 3.2 4.5 2.0 3.0 .3 1.31
9.0 Horford,Al Atl 35 .588 17.9 11.0 3.7 .8 1.5 1.1 1.62
8.9 Smith,Josh Atl 35 .529 18.8 10.1 3.5 1.4 2.9 1.8 1.56
8.9 Ginobili,Manu SAS 31 .566 22.8 4.8 6.2 1.9 2.7 .4 1.71
8.6 Duncan,Tim SAS 29 .516 17.8 12.3 3.8 .9 2.1 2.4 1.77

8.4 Parker,Tony SAS 32 .562 21.3 3.6 8.0 1.4 2.8 .0 1.59
8.4 Nash,Steve Phx 33 .603 17.4 4.0 12.5 .7 4.0 .1 1.57
8.3 Garnett,Kevin Bos 32 .559 19.9 11.7 3.1 1.6 1.8 .9 1.80
8.3 Bosh,Chris Mia 36 .548 20.1 8.9 2.0 .9 1.8 .7 1.42
8.0 Martin,Kevin Hou 31 .587 26.8 3.9 2.9 1.2 2.5 .2 1.55

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.9 Odom,Lamar LAL 32 .587 17.6 10.2 3.5 .6 1.8 .8 1.46
7.9 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .529 20.2 9.5 2.9 .7 2.1 .7 1.51
7.9 Lopez,Brook NJN 35 .535 21.7 6.8 1.5 .6 2.4 1.7 1.32
7.7 Deng,Luol Chi 39 .534 18.4 6.0 2.8 .9 1.8 .5 1.16
7.6 Millsap,Paul Uta 34 .564 18.7 9.3 2.6 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.45

7.6 Felton,Raymond Den 31 .493 11.5 4.7 7.9 1.4 2.1 .0 1.05
7.5 Granger,Danny Ind 36 .541 21.5 5.7 2.6 1.1 2.7 .8 1.29
7.4 Brand,Elton Phi 34 .547 16.8 9.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.29
7.3 Rondo,Rajon Bos 37 .502 11.4 4.7 12.3 2.3 3.6 .2 1.39
7.3 Allen,Ray Bos 36 .616 20.4 3.9 3.0 1.0 1.5 .2 1.19

7.3 Miller,Andre Por 33 .520 15.7 4.7 8.2 1.6 2.8 .2 1.32
7.1 Johnson,Joe Atl 36 .515 20.5 4.6 4.8 .7 2.1 .1 1.33
6.8 Conley,Mike Mem 35 .524 15.0 3.5 6.9 1.8 2.3 .2 1.14
6.8 Hilario,Nene Den 31 .656 18.6 9.5 2.5 1.2 2.1 1.1 1.43
6.8 Iguodala,Andre Phi 37 .526 15.0 6.2 6.2 1.5 1.9 .6 1.31

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.7 Curry,Stephen GSW 34 .592 20.2 4.1 5.7 1.8 3.3 .3 1.33
6.7 Boozer,Carlos Chi 32 .546 23.9 12.0 2.7 .8 2.9 .4 1.82
6.6 Bogut,Andrew Mil 35 .477 14.1 12.7 2.1 .7 2.0 2.7 1.38
6.6 Jackson,Stephen Cha 36 .511 20.0 5.1 3.5 1.2 3.2 .4 1.15
6.6 Harris,Devin Uta 31 .542 19.1 3.3 6.6 1.0 3.1 .1 1.23
6.6 Gay,Rudy Mem 40 .540 18.9 6.3 2.6 1.5 2.3 1.0 1.25
Rates, Min, Eff% shown are with players' current teams.
e82 -- eWins projected to the season -- are the sum of their e82 for all teams players have been with.
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Tue Apr 05, 2011 12:29 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
At the 93.3% point in the season, Rose and Dwight are still deadlocked at #2.
Code:
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
14.7 James,Lebron Mia 39 .581 28.1 7.7 7.5 1.4 3.4 .6 2.30
13.2 Rose,Derrick Chi 38 .535 28.2 4.5 8.1 1.1 3.4 .6 2.11
13.2 Howard,Dwight Orl 38 .595 25.6 14.9 1.4 1.3 3.5 2.3 2.14
12.5 Wade,Dwyane Mia 37 .566 28.1 6.9 5.1 1.4 3.1 1.1 2.08
12.0 Bryant,Kobe LAL 34 .537 29.9 5.9 5.5 1.3 3.1 .1 2.09

11.8 Griffin,Blake LAC 38 .534 22.0 12.9 3.3 .7 2.6 .5 1.84
11.3 Westbrook,Russel Okl 35 .524 23.7 5.2 9.0 1.9 4.1 .4 1.91
11.3 Durant,Kevin Okl 39 .575 27.0 6.9 2.7 1.1 2.5 .9 1.79
11.0 Gasol,Pau LAL 37 .577 20.4 10.6 3.5 .6 1.8 1.6 1.75
10.7 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 40 .542 21.9 9.0 2.0 .9 1.8 1.1 1.59

10.7 Love,Kevin Min 36 .579 19.9 16.1 2.3 .6 2.2 .4 1.86
10.6 Paul,Chris NOH 36 .574 18.4 4.6 9.7 2.4 2.2 .1 1.78
10.6 Stoudemire,Amare NYK 37 .556 24.7 8.4 2.7 .9 3.2 1.9 1.71
10.4 Randolph,Zach Mem 36 .542 21.4 13.8 2.2 .8 2.1 .3 1.81
9.9 Anthony,Carmelo NYK 37 .558 25.3 6.4 3.2 .9 2.5 .3 1.62

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.5 Jefferson,Al Uta 36 .525 19.0 10.8 1.8 .6 1.4 1.9 1.56
9.5 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 34 .602 26.8 7.9 2.8 .5 2.0 .7 1.84
9.2 Pierce,Paul Bos 35 .605 23.3 6.1 3.6 1.1 2.2 .7 1.57
9.0 Smith,Josh Atl 35 .530 19.0 10.0 3.4 1.4 2.7 1.7 1.57
9.0 Ellis,Monta GSW 40 .527 21.2 3.3 4.6 1.9 2.9 .3 1.31

8.8 Horford,Al Atl 36 .584 17.5 10.7 3.6 .8 1.6 1.1 1.55
8.6 Williams,Deron NJN 37 .451 14.4 4.9 10.7 1.2 3.6 .2 1.34
8.6 Ginobili,Manu SAS 31 .566 22.5 4.8 6.0 1.9 2.7 .4 1.67
8.5 Bosh,Chris Mia 36 .554 20.3 9.1 2.2 .8 1.8 .6 1.46
8.5 West,David NOH 35 .549 21.9 8.9 2.4 1.0 2.1 .9 1.57

8.3 Garnett,Kevin Bos 31 .565 20.0 11.7 3.0 1.6 1.9 .9 1.78
8.3 Parker,Tony SAS 33 .560 21.3 3.6 7.8 1.3 2.9 .0 1.56
8.2 Martin,Kevin Hou 32 .590 26.9 3.8 2.8 1.2 2.5 .2 1.54
8.1 Nash,Steve Phx 34 .596 17.0 4.0 12.4 .7 3.9 .0 1.54
8.0 Odom,Lamar LAL 32 .585 17.6 10.2 3.6 .7 1.8 .8 1.47

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.0 Duncan,Tim SAS 28 .524 18.1 12.4 3.6 .9 2.1 2.4 1.77
7.8 Millsap,Paul Uta 34 .570 19.0 9.1 2.6 1.4 2.0 1.0 1.46
7.8 Scola,Luis Hou 33 .528 20.1 9.6 3.0 .7 2.2 .7 1.50
7.6 Lopez,Brook NJN 35 .530 21.2 6.7 1.5 .6 2.2 1.6 1.29
7.6 Deng,Luol Chi 39 .539 18.2 5.9 2.7 .9 1.8 .5 1.14

7.6 Granger,Danny Ind 35 .541 21.7 5.7 2.7 1.2 2.8 .8 1.30
7.4 Brand,Elton Phi 35 .542 16.5 9.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.28
7.4 Williams,Deron Uta 38 .575 21.5 4.1 9.2 1.2 3.4 .2 1.67
7.3 Miller,Andre Por 33 .518 15.8 4.8 8.0 1.6 2.8 .2 1.33
7.3 Rondo,Rajon Bos 37 .490 11.6 4.8 11.9 2.1 3.4 .2 1.38

6.9 Boozer,Carlos Chi 32 .544 23.6 12.1 3.0 .8 2.8 .3 1.84
6.9 Allen,Ray Bos 36 .610 19.6 3.8 2.9 1.0 1.5 .2 1.13
6.9 Bogut,Andrew Mil 36 .490 14.6 12.4 2.1 .7 2.0 2.7 1.38
6.9 Hilario,Nene Den 31 .646 18.3 9.6 2.6 1.3 2.1 1.1 1.43
6.9 Conley,Mike Mem 36 .514 14.9 3.5 6.9 1.8 2.3 .2 1.14

e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
6.9 Johnson,Joe Atl 36 .515 20.1 4.6 4.7 .7 2.1 .1 1.29
6.8 Holiday,Jrue Phi 35 .521 15.4 4.4 6.6 1.5 2.7 .4 1.14
6.7 Iguodala,Andre Phi 37 .521 14.8 6.1 6.2 1.6 2.1 .6 1.29
6.7 Lowry,Kyle Hou 34 .546 14.5 4.7 7.4 1.5 2.3 .3 1.22
6.6 Lee,David GSW 36 .538 16.0 10.0 3.0 1.0 2.4 .4 1.23

6.6 Curry,Stephen GSW 34 .584 19.8 4.2 5.7 1.6 3.4 .3 1.29
6.5 Wallace,Gerald Por 35 .575 17.4 9.1 2.4 2.1 2.3 .8 1.36
6.3 Cousins,Demarcus Sac 29 .467 17.3 11.6 3.0 1.3 4.2 1.1 1.32
6.2 Kidd,Jason Dal 33 .495 9.2 5.2 9.5 1.8 2.5 .4 1.10
6.2 Gasol,Marc Mem 32 .567 14.2 8.8 3.0 1.0 2.1 1.9 1.16

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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 8:56 am Post subject: Reply with quote
After 1148 games, the distribution by position, of minutes and eWins.
Positions as designated by Dougstats.com
Code:
pos Min eWins mpg e484
PG 123908 262.3 53.5 1.025
SG 115433 210.2 49.9 .882
SF 114047 210.5 49.3 .893
PF 108254 261.2 46.8 1.168
C 94051 203.8 40.6 1.049

all 555693 1148.0 240.0 1.000


This looks like 103.4 mpg by guards, which is 7.4 minutes of 3-guard lineups. Mostly with dual point guards.
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Crow



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 2:27 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Is there any major published metric were the results come out near neutral by position without a position adjustment to achieve that?

If not, that might impact the 'position doesn't matter' argument and support position adjustments in general and further application of them to specific metrics and perhaps support a meta-metric that is closer to position neutral- if you want to compare players across positions.
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EvanZ



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 3:43 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Crow wrote:
Is there any major published metric were the results come out near neutral by position without a position adjustment to achieve that?

If not, that might impact the 'position doesn't matter' argument and support position adjustments in general and further application of them to specific metrics and perhaps support a meta-metric that is closer to position neutral- if you want to compare players across positions.


Here's ezPM100 by position (players >500 possessions):

PG -1.42
SG -0.1
SF -0.1
PF -0.26
C -0.62

Harder to find good point guards and centers?
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 4:33 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Probably best to weigh by minutes or possessions, to get an overall estimate per position.
Point guards get assists, bigs get rebounds, and everyone has a chance to score and play D. So it's not surprising when these positions get more credit.

Perhaps because they're important positions, there are more players being tried at them. This may bring down their averages.
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Crow



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 07, 2011 5:33 pm Post subject: Reply with quote
Top / bottom average position score ratio appears to be much wider in e484 than EZPM100.

An equal blend pulls the variance from neutral (1 in e484, 0 in EZPM100) down a bit lower than what EZPM100 has on its own.

A check I did of RAPM in 2010 put its positional variance closer to EZPM 100. A check done in 2009 by Schtevie on traditional APM put its variance closer to e484.

Position performance parity may not be reality.
Pulling them there is a choice that one might make for certain reasons or one might prefer not to.

Listed as PGs averaging 53.5 minutes suggest more being tried and some as SG. Listed as Cs getting 40.6 minutes suggests short supply and use of small ball with listed at PFs at Center.

Last edited by Crow on Fri Apr 08, 2011 11:57 am; edited 1 time in total
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Mike G



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PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2011 8:47 am Post subject: Reply with quote
Crow wrote:
Top / bottom average position score ratio appears to be much wider in e484 than EZPM100. An equal blend pulls the variance from neutral (1 in e484, 0 in EZPM100) down to close to what EZPM100 has on its own. ..
Eh? What kind of ratio do you get on a zero-average rate like ezPM?
What does that 2nd sentence mean? ("An equal blend ...")

I found 'average' e484 rates for players with at least 300 minutes this year. Roughly equivalent to those with 500+ possessions?
SS is sample size.

Code:
pos SS mpg e484 300Min ezPM
PG 84 54.0 1.025 .95 -1.42
SG 75 50.3 .882 .80 -.10
SF 83 49.7 .893 .79 -.10
PF 77 47.1 1.168 1.01 -.26
C 75 41.0 1.049 .91 -.62

all 394 242.0 1.000 .89 -.50

The obvious difference here is that what eWins discerns as 'weak' positions -- SF and SG -- ezPM ranks as the strongest. At least using 'average player above an arbitrary cutoff'.
With these 75-84 players from each position, we are looking at 2.4-2.6 per position, per team. On average, a backup player who occasionally starts.

Per-36-minute averages for players with 300+ minutes:
Code:
pos mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk 3s T
PG 26 .517 14.8 3.8 6.0 2.7 1.3 2.6 .2 50 24.8
SG 25 .527 15.1 4.4 2.8 2.6 1.2 1.8 .4 63 22.6
SF 25 .524 13.8 6.0 2.1 3.0 1.1 1.7 .6 49 22.4
PF 24 .529 14.7 9.0 1.7 3.8 .9 1.8 .9 18 25.6
C 21 .538 12.1 10.1 1.5 4.6 .8 1.9 1.6 2 24.2

3-point FG are averages for the seasons.
The T column is a weighted avg of Sco, Reb, Ast, PF, Stl, TO, Blk.
'Replacement level' T is around 11.
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Crow



Joined: 20 Jan 2009
Posts: 825


PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2011 10:53 am Post subject: Reply with quote
I converted EZPM100's scale to a scale where "0" becomes 1 to allow an easier comparison with e484. Equal blend means equal blend- a 50/50 combination. With such a metric blend no position's average value would vary from 1 by more than 7%. Which is pretty close to position neutral, much closer than e484 alone.

(But EZPM was a bit closer on its own, so if one wanted a metric with close to position neutrality one could just use that.)

I put together a blend just to see what it would look like. If you wanted even closer position neutrality, you could reduce the value given to the assist-maker (perhaps by sharing part of the assist credit with the player who got open and caught the ball and took advantage of that assist opportunity) and / or reduce the value of individual rebounding (especially the defensive rebounding weight in e484) and / or increase the net value given of scoring activity to help the wings. Those are the conclusions I reach from making the scales roughly similar and checking that simple equal blend of EZPM and e484.

Perhaps a different, maybe bigger blend with RAPM, ASPM, WinShares and maybe others would get even closer to position neutral without additional adjustment. Of course blending is essentially changing underlying stat weights similar to what targeted direct weight changes would do to achieve greater neutrality so maybe it would be simpler to just do the stat weight changes directly. But if a weighted blend of 2 to 4+ metrics were very close to position neutral without further or only very minor direct intervention stat level adjustment that would be somewhat interesting to me and maybe that could be pitched / seen as something of a unification theory / model.

A blend of 25% e484, 25% EZPM and 50% multi-season RAPM appears to reduce the position variance from 1 to less than 2% for all positions except PF which exceed 1 by a bit over 4%. That is pretty darn close for such a simple meta-metric. Further tinkering could probably get even closer, at least for this time-period.

(DSMok1, if you have computed ASPM "position averages", could you re-state them? I am looking for them but an assist would of course be welcome. Though perhaps, if I am now recalling your perspective correctly, they have not been that much to you so far? I might compute them later if need be.)

All this would be based on either belief in equal position value or at least willingness to assume it to some degree for player management tasks, to aid trade, draft and free agent considerations across positions.


Valuation of a specific player to a team given the other pieces you already have and probably will keep in the near-term might however depart significantly from the traditional position framework and an equal value of positions assumption. Different ways to look to look at things.
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