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2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 4:24 pm
by Mike G
After 3 or 4 games per team, here is the first look at how players have done. Ranked by eWins projected to 66 games.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
16.6 James,Lebron Mia 37 .644 32.9 8.0 7.4 2.7 3.0 1.3 3.30
14.0 Bryant,Kobe LAL 35 .563 35.1 6.7 6.7 1.6 4.8 .5 2.97
13.1 Durant,Kevin Okl 39 .665 30.8 7.0 4.2 .9 3.3 .9 2.48
12.4 Howard,Dwight Orl 38 .486 19.1 17.5 2.7 1.2 2.7 2.6 2.40
11.8 Love,Kevin Min 38 .542 24.6 13.8 3.1 1.0 3.8 .0 2.27
10.8 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .560 26.2 10.3 1.8 1.0 2.0 .0 2.13
10.7 Lowry,Kyle Hou 29 .630 21.3 8.6 11.4 3.3 3.3 .4 2.72
9.5 Granger,Danny Ind 34 .457 26.0 6.7 3.1 2.1 3.2 1.3 2.02
9.3 Williams,Marvin Atl 26 .592 24.0 12.1 4.2 2.4 .5 .4 2.65
9.2 Gasol,Pau LAL 36 .558 20.2 9.7 3.1 .8 1.8 2.3 1.87
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.2 Ginobili,Manu SAS 26 .691 28.6 6.6 5.6 2.3 2.3 .8 2.59
9.1 Jennings,Brandon Mil 36 .567 25.7 2.6 6.0 .0 2.0 .3 1.86
9.0 Rose,Derrick Chi 37 .606 21.4 4.0 9.5 .2 4.4 .2 1.79
8.9 Anthony,Carmelo NYK 35 .631 27.2 6.8 2.6 .7 3.8 .6 1.85
8.8 Lawson,Ty Den 32 .698 24.9 4.0 3.7 4.5 1.9 .0 1.99
8.7 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 38 .517 21.1 6.6 3.2 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.68
8.4 Hibbert,Roy Ind 32 .592 21.1 13.8 1.2 .8 3.4 2.0 1.91
8.4 Anderson,Ryan Orl 33 .624 25.2 7.5 1.3 .6 .6 .8 1.90
8.4 Ellis,Monta GSW 38 .474 22.3 2.4 7.3 .6 3.2 .3 1.62
8.2 Diaw,Boris Cha 33 .515 13.3 12.3 7.6 .7 3.3 1.0 1.79
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.1 Hawes,Spencer Phi 34 .654 12.4 13.4 5.1 1.8 2.8 1.9 1.72
8.0 Bargnani,Andrea Tor 35 .587 23.8 6.5 2.7 .4 2.5 1.0 1.70
8.0 Rondo,Rajon Bos 37 .591 18.5 5.4 8.3 1.5 4.5 .0 1.60
8.0 Bogut,Andrew Mil 35 .450 17.6 11.0 2.7 1.4 1.8 1.3 1.69
7.9 Randolph,Zach Mem 34 .533 21.4 10.6 1.5 1.4 2.5 .3 1.71
7.9 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 31 .568 25.0 7.3 2.9 1.2 2.6 .3 1.86
7.9 Iguodala,Andre Phi 35 .697 18.8 6.1 4.7 1.7 2.1 1.2 1.63
7.8 Wallace,Gerald Por 36 .747 21.5 8.0 2.7 .7 2.7 .9 1.61
7.7 Landry,Carl NOH 31 .520 23.5 9.6 1.2 .8 1.5 .4 1.80
7.6 Wade,Dwyane Mia 35 .500 20.6 3.7 6.3 1.0 4.1 2.3 1.58
Already no slouches in the upper echelons.
NBA average is 1.00 eW per 484 minutes.
Right now some of the values are flaky: steals, turnovers, blocks, and shooting% aren't as important as normal.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:06 pm
by Crow
Just 3 games for Marvin Williams against the 6th easiest strength of schedule but 3PTs, FTs and rebs are way above his career averages. Has it clicked him at age 25 or is it a short term trend?
Hawes and Diaw starting well, including on rebounding, in advance of next summer's free agency.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:04 pm
by Mike G
Right -- these stats are not adjusted for strength of schedule. Tilted toward point differential. By midseason, schedules will be pretty close to even, excepting east-west imbalance.
I must have blinked at Lowry and missed Marvin W. He's always seemed like the weak link in Atlanta. Now he's the best player on a team with the pt-diff of a 63-3 mark.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Mon Jan 02, 2012 2:52 pm
by Mike G
The season is 6.6% -- that is 1/15 -- completed.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
16.8 James,Lebron Mia 35 .641 33.2 8.7 7.3 2.5 2.9 1.2 3.49
13.4 Love,Kevin Min 38 .579 26.3 14.3 2.6 1.0 3.1 .2 2.58
12.9 Durant,Kevin Okl 36 .646 30.2 7.4 4.8 1.2 3.8 .9 2.61
12.5 Howard,Dwight Orl 39 .509 18.6 17.2 2.3 1.1 2.8 2.6 2.36
11.2 Bryant,Kobe LAL 35 .482 28.8 6.6 6.0 1.4 4.9 .3 2.37
11.1 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .571 26.1 10.4 2.4 1.0 2.7 .0 2.19
10.6 Anthony,Carmelo NYK 35 .606 28.3 7.0 3.8 .8 2.9 .5 2.23
10.4 Rondo,Rajon Bos 36 .604 20.0 7.0 9.7 1.4 4.2 .0 2.11
10.3 Rose,Derrick Chi 35 .600 24.2 3.9 9.5 .6 4.2 .6 2.18
10.1 Ginobili,Manu SAS 26 .782 33.6 6.3 4.7 1.8 2.8 .7 2.90
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.5 Lowry,Kyle Hou 32 .558 15.9 7.5 11.4 2.8 3.9 .5 2.15
9.3 Jennings,Brandon Mil 36 .567 26.2 2.6 5.4 .0 2.0 .3 1.90
9.2 Iguodala,Andre Phi 34 .657 20.2 6.7 5.5 1.3 1.9 1.2 1.97
9.2 Bargnani,Andrea Tor 36 .582 24.6 7.0 2.4 .5 2.3 .7 1.85
9.0 Anderson,Ryan Orl 32 .646 26.4 7.6 1.4 .5 .5 .6 2.06
9.0 Hawes,Spencer Phi 33 .667 15.0 13.3 4.9 1.4 2.5 1.8 1.98
8.9 Lawson,Ty Den 33 .637 22.1 3.7 6.7 3.1 2.4 .0 1.98
8.8 Wade,Dwyane Mia 34 .521 22.5 3.7 6.9 1.3 4.1 2.2 1.90
8.7 Gasol,Pau LAL 36 .584 20.6 9.1 2.3 .7 2.2 1.9 1.77
8.4 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 39 .494 20.0 6.9 2.9 1.2 1.6 .9 1.58
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
8.1 Williams,Lou Phi 27 .618 29.1 3.4 4.8 .6 1.6 .0 2.19
8.1 Bosh,Chris Mia 33 .595 21.2 10.2 2.2 .9 2.6 1.0 1.79
8.0 Bogut,Andrew Mil 35 .450 17.0 11.1 2.6 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.69
8.0 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 31 .556 25.0 6.7 2.5 1.2 2.1 .2 1.86
7.7 Williams,Marvin Atl 25 .586 22.2 10.6 3.0 1.8 .4 .7 2.30
7.6 Deng,Luol Chi 39 .535 18.1 7.5 2.7 .8 1.7 .9 1.44
7.5 Calderon,Jose Tor 32 .662 15.8 4.9 9.1 1.1 2.0 .3 1.71
7.5 Blair,Dejuan SAS 24 .596 27.9 11.6 1.6 .8 2.3 .0 2.31
7.5 Harden,James Okl 31 .611 19.7 7.2 4.9 .7 1.1 .2 1.79
7.4 Paul,Chris LAC 39 .549 14.8 2.6 9.0 2.4 2.4 .0 1.41
Marvin, Granger, Gasol, and Lowry are displaced in the top 10 by Carmelo, Rondo, Rose, and Ginobili.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 6:59 am
by erivera7
What a surprise. LeBron is first yet again.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2012 3:06 pm
by Mike G
With the season 12% completed.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
15.7 James,Lebron Mia 36 .643 35.5 8.3 8.6 2.0 3.6 1.0 3.56
13.4 Howard,Dwight Orl 39 .553 22.0 16.1 2.3 1.5 3.1 2.6 2.52
12.6 Love,Kevin Min 39 .592 26.6 14.6 1.6 .9 3.5 .4 2.36
12.3 Bryant,Kobe LAL 36 .511 32.0 6.9 5.4 .9 4.3 .3 2.52
12.2 Anthony,Carmelo NYK 35 .556 30.5 7.2 5.1 1.2 3.0 .6 2.53
11.5 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .574 26.8 11.3 2.5 1.2 3.0 .6 2.29
10.6 Durant,Kevin Okl 36 .571 28.6 6.5 3.4 1.0 3.5 1.0 2.14
10.0 Rose,Derrick Chi 36 .545 23.3 4.1 9.0 .9 3.8 .5 2.03
9.4 Hawes,Spencer Phi 30 .638 19.1 12.6 4.7 1.1 1.9 2.1 2.26
9.3 Bargnani,Andrea Tor 36 .599 26.3 7.0 2.2 .4 2.1 .7 1.91
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.0 Bosh,Chris Mia 35 .578 23.3 9.2 2.4 1.2 2.7 1.1 1.86
9.0 Rondo,Rajon Bos 36 .544 16.9 5.9 10.9 1.8 4.2 .0 1.81
8.9 Smith,Josh Atl 33 .471 18.7 10.9 3.8 1.5 2.3 2.1 1.99
8.6 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 37 .522 22.7 8.0 2.2 .8 1.8 .6 1.68
8.3 Gasol,Pau LAL 36 .599 20.1 9.7 2.1 .8 2.3 1.8 1.71
8.1 Paul,Chris LAC 37 .580 16.5 2.4 10.1 2.9 2.7 .0 1.61
8.0 Lawson,Ty Den 33 .562 20.2 3.6 7.7 2.3 2.4 .1 1.79
8.0 Ellis,Monta GSW 39 .497 23.6 2.7 6.5 1.3 3.2 .2 1.70
7.7 Anderson,Ryan Orl 31 .601 23.7 9.1 1.2 .3 .3 .5 1.85
7.6 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 31 .525 23.9 6.4 3.3 1.3 2.1 .3 1.78
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.5 Iguodala,Andre Phi 33 .548 17.9 6.7 5.0 2.1 2.4 1.2 1.66
7.5 Hibbert,Roy Ind 30 .556 20.1 13.0 2.0 .5 2.5 1.5 1.85
7.4 Jennings,Brandon Mil 39 .490 20.3 3.3 4.9 1.6 2.5 .1 1.38
7.4 Monroe,Greg Det 31 .592 20.7 11.4 2.7 .8 2.9 .7 1.75
7.3 Jefferson,Al Uta 33 .494 21.6 10.0 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.88
7.2 Gallinari,Danilo Den 33 .561 20.0 6.3 3.1 2.1 1.7 .6 1.58
7.1 Parker,Tony SAS 30 .472 19.3 3.2 9.0 1.1 2.0 .0 1.75
7.1 Gasol,Marc Mem 36 .598 15.8 11.0 1.6 1.5 2.5 2.4 1.46
7.1 Irving,Kyrie Cle 27 .508 22.3 5.9 7.9 .8 4.1 1.2 1.95
7.0 Calderon,Jose Tor 35 .619 14.9 4.2 9.1 .8 1.6 .1 1.48
#31-40 : Westbrook, Jamison, Lou Williams, Horford, Boozer, Harden, Millsap, Garnett, Lowry, Bynum
#41-50 : Holiday, McGee, Nash, Wade, Augustin, Ray Allen, Amare', Deng, Varejao, Gay
It's fairly shocking to see Hawes at #9 (#7 per minute); he's also #8 in PER, 11th in Win Shares, #2 in per minute WS.
Bargnani just 20th in WS, 13th in PER.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2012 4:49 pm
by Crow
Hawes and Bargnani at their career bests in many major stat categories. Showing strong APM too, though it is very early with very large average errors.
Mullens actually playing and doing well too at least on shooting and PER. Above average on WS/48.
Westbrook 31st overall in the league on e66? Must be benefiting from high minutes, high usage.
He is only 30th amongst just PGs over 20 minutes per game on PER and 40th in that group for Win Shares per 48.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2012 5:35 pm
by Mike G
Westbrook may be one of the bigger decliners this year. I expected him to go 33 mpg @ 2.17 eW/484, for 9.9 eWins; at 1.57*33 mpg (*66/484), he's headed for 7.0 eW.
Of 48 PG's with >150 minutes, he ranks 11th in e484; after Rose, Lou Williams, Irving, Lowry, Rondo, Lawson, Parker, Sessions, Paul, and Nash; ahead of Chalmers, Calderon, Curry, DWilliams, 'Dre, Jennings, Holiday, Augustin ...
Of the 48, I rank only Lou W, Rose, and Irving as better scorers.
Better rebounders are just Lowry, Rondo, Sessions, and Irving.
He's 20th in assists and 10th in steals rates.
First in turnovers, edging DWill and Nash.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2012 6:49 pm
by Crow
On e66 top 15, there is only one PG and one SG. With an equal distribution across positions one might expect 6.
There are voices out there saying it is a guard dominated league.
These 2 things do not agree.
But 8 of the next 15 on e66 are guards so I guess they agree more when taken that broader level of leaders. But guards are still underrepresented in the top 30, not overrepresented. With an equal distribution one might expect 12 in the top 30 but there were only 10 guards.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2012 9:50 pm
by Mike G
But you can see 5 of the next 10 are guards -- 15 of 40; and 6 of the next 10, making 21 of 50 : over-representation.
I was meaning to do this anyway: % of minutes by position, eWins and eW/484 min.
Code: Select all
pos Min %Min eWins e484
C 8999 .157 20.5 1.10
PF 13805 .241 31.8 1.11
SF 9706 .169 17.0 .85
SG 11665 .203 20.5 .85
PG 13223 .230 29.2 1.07
C 8999 .157 20.5 1.10
F 23511 .410 48.8 1.00
G 24888 .434 49.7 .97
tot 57398 1.00 119.0 1.00
I haven't scrupulously double checked the position designations given by dougstats.com
Apparently only 'true' centers are called that, and some PF are playing more C; PF+C minutes are right at 40%.
Then, many intervals have 2 PG on the floor for a team, 3 guards, etc.
If an inordinate amount of talent resides in natural Guards, even if it's just by sheer numbers -- and this seems quite plausible -- then just by the trend of small lineups, we see G creating more than their share of wins.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Sun Jan 08, 2012 10:35 pm
by Crow
I forgot to look at the top 50. 21 of 50 is the slightest of overrepresentation. Thanks for that and the by position summary.
Centers come out best on this metric, perhaps influenced largely by the full possession credit for defensive rebounds?
PGs also do well. Remind me what weight you give an assist? It is large right?
Position comparisons will be significantly affected by which boxscore metric is used and what weights they use.
RAPM has positional neutrality and completeness. No simple boxscore metric is complete (EZPM is a complete play by play metric). It is arguable how neutral each of them are.
But each metric flavor can yield insight. Especially when their results and weights are compared.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 1:44 am
by xkonk
Mike G wrote:But you can see 5 of the next 10 are guards -- 15 of 40; and 6 of the next 10, making 21 of 50 : over-representation.
50 players would represent 10 starting 5's, so we would expect 20 guards, right? Or are we talking about a different kind of over-representation?
Crow, what do you mean by 'complete'?
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:58 am
by Crow
RAPM is aware of / considers all court action including team shot defense when present on the court. Its coverage is complete.
Simple boxscore metrics are incomplete in that they lack awareness & consideration of shot defense and either give all the credit to the defensive rebounder or ignore that aspect of defense.
Win Shares and Wins Produced attempt to add to the boxscore by tacking on team defensive adjustments but they are not specific to when a player is even on the court because the adjustments are not based on play by play.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Mon Jan 09, 2012 10:55 am
by Mike G
xkonk wrote:
50 players would represent 10 starting 5's, so we would expect 20 guards, right? Or are we talking about a different kind of over-representation?
I'd replied to what Crow had written :
On e66 top 15, there is only one PG and one SG. ..
...guards are still underrepresented in the top 30 ... one might expect 12 in the top 30 but there were only 10 guards.
Also noting Westbrook listed at #31 -- and now that I look, there are Rose and Rondo (2 PG) in the top 15; Paul, Lawson, Ellis at #16-18 ...
So I was being a bit facetious.
Should PGs seem to be just as effective as SGs, and SF just as good as PF?
Using the 150 minute cutoff still (not updated yet today), I get these production averages (per36) by position
Code: Select all
pos Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
PG 28.9 .521 15.7 3.8 6.3 1.4 2.8 .3 1.13
SG 26.8 .515 15.7 4.2 3.1 1.2 2.1 .4 .86
SF 28.8 .501 15.6 6.1 2.7 1.2 2.0 .7 1.01
PF 28.3 .509 15.8 9.3 1.8 1.1 2.0 .9 1.19
C 27.5 .547 14.7 10.6 1.5 1.0 2.1 1.5 1.22
type Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
point 28.9 .521 15.7 3.8 6.3 1.4 2.8 .3 1.13
wings 27.8 .508 15.7 5.2 2.9 1.2 2.0 .5 .94
bigs 27.9 .528 15.3 9.9 1.6 1.0 2.1 1.2 1.21
Qualifying were 30 C and SF, and 43-48 at the other positions.
Point guards score just as well as SG, and they assist twice as much.
PF's score same as SF and rebound 50% more.
Shown as
wings are the average of SG and SF.
Bigs are PF and C, also weighed equally.
Re: 2011-12 eWins
Posted: Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:39 pm
by Mike G
With 88 points in 2 games, Kobe is back solidly at #2
Season is 15.5% over.
Code: Select all
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
15.0 James,Lebron Mia 38 .609 32.7 8.8 7.9 2.0 3.8 .8 3.23
14.0 Bryant,Kobe LAL 37 .530 35.3 6.3 5.2 1.0 3.8 .4 2.79
12.1 Anthony,Carmelo NYK 36 .537 30.2 7.0 5.4 1.4 3.5 .5 2.48
11.8 Love,Kevin Min 39 .545 23.8 14.3 1.8 .9 2.7 .5 2.20
11.5 Howard,Dwight Orl 37 .542 20.1 15.5 2.5 1.3 3.1 2.2 2.28
11.3 Durant,Kevin Okl 36 .582 28.4 7.6 4.0 .9 3.6 1.1 2.30
10.8 Griffin,Blake LAC 37 .541 24.6 11.6 2.4 1.1 2.8 .5 2.12
10.3 Rose,Derrick Chi 36 .562 25.8 3.7 9.2 .8 3.6 .6 2.26
9.5 Aldridge,Lamarcu Por 37 .527 23.5 8.1 2.6 1.2 1.6 .6 1.89
9.2 Rondo,Rajon Bos 36 .544 18.0 5.6 10.6 1.9 4.2 .0 1.86
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.0 Smith,Josh Atl 33 .496 19.8 10.3 3.8 1.6 2.4 1.8 2.01
8.8 Bargnani,Andrea Tor 35 .568 25.8 7.2 1.9 .3 2.1 .6 1.83
8.6 Paul,Chris LAC 37 .576 17.6 3.1 9.2 2.7 2.4 .0 1.70
8.3 Gasol,Pau LAL 37 .585 19.0 10.2 2.1 .7 2.4 1.4 1.63
8.1 Bosh,Chris Mia 36 .552 21.6 8.7 2.0 1.0 2.8 1.1 1.62
8.0 Jefferson,Al Uta 34 .505 21.2 10.2 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.92
8.0 Anderson,Ryan Orl 31 .593 23.1 9.8 1.2 .8 .5 .4 1.92
7.9 Westbrook,Russel Okl 33 .485 22.2 5.4 6.9 1.8 4.1 .2 1.78
7.9 Nowitzki,Dirk Dal 32 .547 23.7 7.0 3.3 1.2 2.2 .5 1.84
7.8 Hibbert,Roy Ind 29 .557 20.7 12.7 2.3 .5 2.7 1.5 1.95
e66 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
7.6 Ellis,Monta GSW 40 .485 23.0 2.7 6.2 1.5 3.8 .3 1.57
7.4 Gasol,Marc Mem 37 .536 14.0 10.7 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.4 1.44
7.3 Millsap,Paul Uta 29 .563 19.9 10.5 2.2 2.2 1.3 .8 1.89
7.2 Monroe,Greg Det 31 .599 19.5 11.5 2.9 .8 2.6 .6 1.71
7.2 Gallinari,Danilo Den 34 .582 19.9 5.9 3.3 2.0 1.9 .6 1.57
7.1 Iguodala,Andre Phi 33 .556 18.4 6.5 4.4 2.0 2.5 .8 1.59
7.1 Hawes,Spencer Phi 28 .617 18.1 11.7 4.4 .9 1.9 2.1 2.07
7.1 Wade,Dwyane Mia 36 .485 22.7 4.3 6.0 2.0 3.3 2.1 1.99
7.0 Parker,Tony SAS 31 .483 19.1 3.4 8.5 1.0 2.3 .0 1.64
7.0 Calderon,Jose Tor 35 .593 14.6 4.4 9.2 .9 1.7 .1 1.48
31-40 -- Lawson, Garnett, Irving, Amare', Jennings, Bynum, Jamison, Lowry, Boozer, Horford
41-50 -- Deng, Duncan, Nash, Gortat, Harden, Holiday, Cousins, G Wallace, McGee, David West
51-60 -- Evans, T Chandler, Lou Williams, Jack, Varejao, Joe Johnson, Deron Williams, Brand, Allen, Turkoglu