most improved players of 2011-12

[Mike G]

Everyone has their own idea of who qualifies and who doesn't qualify for this distinction.
This is just the number of (equivalent) wins, or eWins, additional in this year's minutes, above last year's rates.
eW+ = (2012e484 - 2011e484)*Min/484

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eW+    per36 rates    2012   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2011: Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.53   Chalmers,Mario  Mia   18.6   4.4   7.2   1.54      10.7   3.5   4.4    .49
.49   Hawes,Spencer   Phi   18.7  12.1   4.3   2.08      13.0  10.9   2.7   1.09
.49   Harden,James    Okl   22.4   5.6   4.3   1.69      16.4   4.2   2.8    .91
.46   James,LeBron    Mia   35.2   8.2   8.5   3.56      29.4   7.9   7.6   2.79
.45   Bargnani,Andrea Tor   26.4   7.0   2.0   1.90      21.5   5.9   1.7   1.23

.39   Mullens,Byron   Cha   18.3   7.7    .5   1.07  Okl  6.8   8.8    .0   -.06
.37   Monroe,Greg     Det   20.2  11.4   2.9   1.77      12.9  10.9   1.6   1.13
.37   Williams,Marvin Atl   18.4   9.9   2.1   1.65      14.5   6.8   1.7    .84
.35   Harrington,Al   Den   21.8   7.9   1.2   1.41      14.6   6.8   2.1    .73
.33  Gallinari,Danilo Den   19.3   6.0   3.0   1.48      17.6   5.5   1.9   1.01

eW+    per36 rates    2012   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2011: Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.32   Jack,Jarrett    NOH   16.8   4.4   7.0   1.31      14.3   3.7   4.5    .79
.31   Lawson,Ty       Den   19.7   3.6   7.1   1.68      16.2   3.7   6.8   1.23
.30   Lucas,John      Chi   23.6   4.5   5.1   1.80       4.0   0.0   3.1   -.44
.30  Radmanovic,Vladi Atl   15.2   5.6   3.4   1.14  GSW 10.1   5.8   2.0    .40
.30   Landry,Carl     NOH   21.2   8.7   1.0   1.34      16.1   6.6   1.0    .77

.29   Williams,Lou    Phi   26.4   2.7   5.6   1.91      19.9   2.9   4.5   1.23
.29   Green,Daniel    SAS   17.8   7.9   3.0   1.55      14.8   5.2    .7    .53
.28   Anderson,Ryan   Orl   23.2   9.5   1.2   1.90      18.8   9.3   1.3   1.41
.26   Teague,Jeff     Atl   14.5   2.2   6.5   1.05      12.3   3.6   4.4    .68
.26   Lowry,Kyle      Hou   17.8   7.5   9.1   1.93      14.7   4.7   7.6   1.29
.26   Blake,Steve     LAL   12.3   3.2   3.4    .51       6.6   3.3   3.6    .01

Chalmers has become, for the moment, a 4th Star for the Heat.
John Lucas played 10 minutes last year, and this year's rates are based on 66 min.
Byron Mullens played 84 min. last year. Danny Green's also played more this year than last, already.

Most Regressed is a touchier call. It's still (change in production)*(minutes), so these are players who are still getting minutes despite a sharp dropoff in numbers:

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eW+     per36 rates    2012   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2011: Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.28   Noah,Joakim     Chi   11.8  12.0   2.8   1.14      15.8  13.5   2.8   1.66
-.28   Garnett,Kevin   Bos   17.2   9.5   3.6   1.53      21.2  11.7   3.1   2.09
-.30   Nowitzki,Dirk   Dal   23.6   6.3   3.3   1.77      28.9   8.2   3.0   2.28
-.30   Kidd,Jason      Dal    6.6   5.0   5.8    .52       9.1   5.3   9.8   1.17
-.32   Wright,Dorell   GSW    6.9   5.7   2.2    .29      15.3   5.1   2.7    .95

-.33   Williams,Deron  NJN   18.1   4.1   7.4   1.33      20.7   4.3   9.6   1.84
-.34   Scola,Luis      Hou   18.7   6.3   1.6   1.04      20.8   9.9   3.1   1.69
-.36   Jackson,Stephen Mil   15.3   3.7   3.0    .50  Cha 19.9   5.3   3.5   1.19
-.38   Salmons,John    Sac    9.3   4.2   2.0    .22  Mil 16.1   4.1   3.6    .91
-.38   Odom,Lamar      Dal   11.3   8.4   1.7    .57  LAL 18.1  10.1   3.6   1.61

-.40   Prince,Tayshaun Det   10.5   4.1   1.9    .35      16.0   5.4   3.0   1.01
-.42  Westbrook,Russel Okl   20.4   5.5   6.8   1.58      23.9   5.4   9.3   2.22
-.45   Nelson,Jameer   Orl    9.2   2.7   7.6    .50      18.1   4.1   8.1   1.42
-.45   Martin,Kevin    Hou   18.9   3.0   2.6    .95      28.4   3.9   2.9   1.81

This is the bottom of the whole list -- biggest losers at the bottom.
Both Nowitzki and Garnett have their lowest PER and WS/48 since their 2nd seasons.
Kidd's numbers are his lowest ever; Odom's by far lowest.

Edit: Both Jackson and Wright had nice games and may now disappear from this end of the list.

[Mike G]

In just 2 days, enough guys have had good and bad games to really shuffle things.
The top 5, and 11 of the top 13, are in the East.

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eW+    per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.57   Mario Chalmers Mia   .679   18.2   4.0   6.2   1.36      .533   10.7   3.5   4.4    .49
.55   John Lucas     Chi   .493   22.1   5.3   5.8   1.78      .250    4.0   0.0   3.1   -.44
.51   Spencer Hawes  Phi   .617   18.1  11.7   4.4   2.07      .477   13.0  10.9   2.7   1.09
.48   Byron Mullens  Cha   .542   18.1   7.9    .5   1.15  Okl .357    6.8   8.8    .0   -.06
.48  Andrea Bargnani Tor   .568   25.8   7.2   1.9   1.83      .524   21.5   5.9   1.7   1.23

.45   James Harden   Okl   .623   21.1   5.0   4.1   1.51      .583   16.4   4.2   2.8    .91
.43 Danilo Gallinari Den   .582   19.9   5.9   3.3   1.57      .580   17.6   5.5   1.9   1.01
.41   Evan Turner    Phi   .502   15.6   7.6   4.0   1.24      .478   10.4   6.0   2.9    .51
.38   Greg Monroe    Det   .599   19.5  11.5   2.9   1.71      .563   12.9  10.9   1.6   1.13
.36   Roy Hibbert    Ind   .557   20.7  12.7   2.3   1.95      .499   16.9  10.5   2.9   1.35

.36  Marvin Williams Atl   .521   18.3   9.8   2.1   1.63      .542   14.5   6.8   1.7    .84
.34  Carmelo Anthony NYK   .537   30.2   7.0   5.4   2.48      .546   26.6   8.0   3.2   2.01
.34   LeBron James   Mia   .609   32.7   8.8   7.9   3.23      .581   29.4   7.9   7.6   2.79
.33   Jarrett Jack   NOH   .473   16.0   4.7   7.0   1.26      .494   14.3   3.7   4.5    .79
.33   Kobe Bryant    LAL   .530   35.3   6.3   5.2   2.79      .538   30.5   6.0   5.5   2.43

eW+    per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.32   Ryan Anderson  Orl   .593   23.1   9.8   1.2   1.92      .585   18.8   9.3   1.3   1.41
.32   Delonte West   Dal   .511   14.4   3.0   6.3   1.14  Bos .529   10.8   2.9   4.8    .52
.31   Al Harrington  Den   .618   20.5   7.6   1.2   1.27      .521   14.6   6.8   2.1    .73
.31   Ty Lawson      Den   .569   19.5   3.7   7.3   1.67      .583   16.2   3.7   6.8   1.23
.30   Jose Calderon  Tor   .593   14.6   4.4   9.2   1.48      .517   11.2   3.9   9.6   1.10

.30   Carl Landry    NOH   .539   20.9   7.9   1.2   1.27      .543   16.1   6.6   1.0    .77
.30   Jamal Crawford Por   .486   19.7   3.5   4.7   1.32  Atl .536   16.8   2.1   3.3    .73
.28   Marcin Gortat  Phx   .623   19.6   9.9    .9   1.72      .584   14.3  10.9   1.2   1.15
.28 Demarcus Cousins Sac   .507   20.2  14.5    .8   1.81      .474   16.7  12.1   3.0   1.31
.28   Danny Green    SAS   .573   15.8   7.5   2.9   1.37      .586   14.8   5.2    .7    .53

This is everyone with at least half as much improvement as the leader.
If I consider Lucas' e484 last year to be zero, his eW+ = .44

The bottom of the list also has changed. Here it is inverted:

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eW+     per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  2011 Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.64   Kevin Martin   Hou   .534   18.5   3.1   2.4    .90      .586   28.4   3.9   2.9   1.81
-.46   John Salmons   Sac   .421    8.7   4.3   2.2    .23  Mil .503   16.1   4.1   3.6    .91
-.46  Tayshaun Prince Det   .406    9.9   4.0   2.0    .30      .506   16.0   5.4   3.0   1.01
-.45   Luis Scola     Hou   .486   18.8   6.4   1.6   1.00      .531   20.8   9.9   3.1   1.69
-.44   Jameer Nelson  Orl   .490   10.6   3.0   7.5    .62      .542   18.1   4.1   8.1   1.42

-.41   Lamar Odom     Dal   .386   11.1   8.5   2.3    .68  LAL .581   18.1  10.1   3.6   1.61
-.39   Deron Williams NJN   .460   17.5   4.0   8.0   1.31      .555   20.7   4.3   9.6   1.84
-.38   Pau Gasol      LAL   .585   19.0  10.2   2.1   1.63      .577   21.5  10.8   3.6   2.04
-.36 Russel Westbrook Okl   .485   22.2   5.4   6.9   1.78      .526   23.9   5.4   9.3   2.22
-.36   Shane Battier  Mia   .423    5.4   2.7   1.0   -.08  Mem .562   10.0   6.0   3.0    .62

-.35   Joakim Noah    Chi   .472   11.8  11.7   2.8   1.10      .566   15.8  13.5   2.8   1.66
-.33   J.J. Hickson   Sac   .445    9.7  10.7   1.1    .66  Cle .494   16.9  11.8   1.4   1.26
-.33   Devin Harris   Uta   .483   13.2   2.2   5.9    .69      .532   18.5   3.1   7.7   1.30
-.32   Dirk Nowitzki  Dal   .547   23.7   7.0   3.3   1.84      .600   28.9   8.2   3.0   2.28
-.29   Kevin Garnett  Bos   .551   17.4   9.7   3.5   1.59      .567   21.2  11.7   3.1   2.09
-.29   Carlos Boozer  Chi   .518   20.4  11.2   1.5   1.69      .534   23.5  12.8   3.2   2.10

Hope this fits everyone's screen.

[kjb]

I sorta expected to see some Wizards on the most unimproved list, but then remembered that none of them were good enough last season for their drops in production to be large.

John Wall shot just under 30% last season on FGA from outside of 3 feet. This season: 20% so far. As a team, the Wizards are shooting 33.5% on jumpers 10+ feet. If the Wizards manage to maintain their .420 efg, it'll be the lowest mark in that stat in the 3pt era.

Yep...that's the reason I'm a Wizards fan.

Thanks, Mike. Good stuff, as usual.

[Mike G]

The Wizards, ranked by their improvement.

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eW+     per36 rates    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2011  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
+.22   Javale Mcgee   .502   15.4  11.7    .3   1.53      .555   13.8  11.3    .6   1.16
+.09   Trevor Booker  .574   11.0   7.8   1.0    .81      .569   10.9   8.0   1.0    .59
+.02   Kevin Seraphin .219    2.9   6.7    .4    .07      .474    6.6   7.4    .4   -.09
-.01   Roger Mason    .447    9.4   1.5   1.7   -.14  NYK .457    6.2   4.1   2.1   -.06
-.04   Ronny Turiaf  1.000    4.2   6.3   2.3    .13  NYK .630    8.5   6.3   2.9    .51

-.05   Nick Young     .478   18.4   2.6   1.4    .76      .531   19.5   3.2   1.2    .84
-.05  Jordan Crawford .406   15.3   2.9   2.7    .58      .452   15.2   3.7   3.7    .71
-.21   Andray Blatche .414   14.0   8.1   1.0    .91      .490   17.3   9.4   2.2   1.28
-.21   Rashard Lewis  .451   11.6   4.5    .8    .33      .530   14.2   6.3   1.8    .73
-.24   John Wall      .404   13.3   3.9   5.4    .83      .484   14.9   4.7   7.2   1.14

Seraphin has unearthly steals and blocks in his 63 minutes of play. He can't shoot, but he doesn't shoot; so it doesn't matter much.
Turiaf has 3 shots in 57 minutes, without a miss.
It looks as though Wall is the only distributor or semblance thereof. So he goes 38 mpg, with no real backup. Shelvin Mack?
Nick Young is less-dimensional than he was last year.

[kjb]

Thanks Mike.

Seraphin has very little game. He's bulky yet nimble. He looks strong and seems to play a physical bran of ball. But he's just not any good as an NBA player.

No surprise about Young's dimension-less game. This was the concern from the stat-based draft evaluators -- that Young could score, but he didn't rebound or assist (or defend) sufficiently. He had a lot of trouble learning the team's offense his first few seasons. Never got the Princeton stuff, and never really learned the Flip Saunders playbook either. Last season, Flip simplified stuff for Young and go him to do some scoring.

And yes, Wall is the only distributor. He's getting knocked pretty hard in DC for his shooting and for playing out of control. I can't imagine how difficult it must be for him to keep forcing himself to make passes to teammates who can't convert -- even layups. Wiz have the 4th most FGA at the rim this season (as a percentage of FGA), but they're 26th in FG% at the rim.

A question from a member of the Wizards message board at RealGM: How do the Wizards rookies compare to the guys they're ostensibly replacing? Basically, Mack, Singleton and Vesely vs. Arenas, Hinrich and Yi.

[Mike G]

... How do the Wizards rookies compare to the guys they're ostensibly replacing? Basically, Mack, Singleton and Vesely vs. Arenas, Hinrich and Yi.

Tough question, since it isn't really one group replacing another. Arenas, Hinrich, and Yi have totaled 5 minutes, 1 rebound, 1 foul.

But here they are as last seen. The current rookies are projected as though the minutes they've played in 10 games are going to be 6.6 times that, after 66 games (e66). The lower group is projected to 50 games at the mpg shown.

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e66    per36 rates   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb  Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk  e484
0.67  Singleton,Chris 23   .534   8.4   5.5   .4   4.6   1.9    .9   .5   .21
0.16   Mack,Shelvin    8   .386   8.2   1.8  3.5    .5   1.0   1.0   .0   .19
-.02   Vesely,Jan     13   .600   5.2   4.4   .6   6.2   3.9   2.3  1.4  -.03
                                 
1.39    Hinrich       29   .527  12.0   3.2  4.1   3.6   1.0   2.0   .4   .47
1.13    Arenas        22   .438  11.5   3.9  5.1   3.4   1.3   3.2   .3   .50
0.54      Yi          18   .452   9.2   7.5   .7   3.4    .8   1.5   .9   .29

Rookies should get better, especially Vesely, a higher pick.
The lower group might have been good for 3 wins?

[kjb]

Many thanks.

Just to be clear, is that the rookies this season vs. the vets last season?

[Mike G]

Many thanks.

Just to be clear, is that the rookies this season vs. the vets last season?

Yes -- none of those vets had appeared this year until Yi with the Mavs popped up.

[bchaikin]

javale mcgee has some of the best per minute shot blocking and rebounding numbers in the entire league, yet Synergy shows his man defense as pretty much the worst on the team...

[Mike G]

Another quick update with season at 18.2%
Does not include last night's games -- Uta-Den, GS-Det, Phx-SA

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eW+    per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2011: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.78   Mullens,Byron  Cha   .538   19.9   8.0    .6   1.26  Okl .357    6.8   8.8    .0   -.06
.71   Monroe,Greg    Det   .605   22.1  12.3   3.1   2.02      .563   12.9  10.9   1.6   1.13
.64   Hawes,Spencer  Phi   .600   18.4  12.3   4.9   2.15      .477   13.0  10.9   2.7   1.09
.62   Lucas,John     Chi   .482   21.6   4.6   5.3   1.58      .250    4.0   0.0   3.1   -.44
.57   Harden,James   Okl   .640   23.0   4.9   4.4   1.61      .583   16.4   4.2   2.8    .91

.53   Chalmers,Mario Mia   .675   18.3   3.9   5.9   1.23      .533   10.7   3.5   4.4    .49
.50  Bargnani,Andrea Tor   .568   26.5   7.2   1.7   1.85      .524   21.5   5.9   1.7   1.23
.45   Turner,Evan    Phi   .511   15.5   7.7   4.4   1.21      .478   10.4   6.0   2.9    .51
.42   Gortat,Marcin  Phx   .627   20.2  10.6   1.1   1.82      .584   14.3  10.9   1.2   1.15
.42  Williams,Marvin Atl   .525   18.8  10.7   2.2   1.69      .542   14.5   6.8   1.7    .84

eW+    per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2011: Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
.42   Williams,Lou   Phi   .571   27.1   3.2   5.1   1.91      .528   19.9   2.9   4.5   1.23
.41   Teague,Jeff    Atl   .514   15.1   2.7   7.0   1.12      .512   12.3   3.6   4.4    .68
.39 Gallinari,Danilo Den   .577   19.8   5.9   3.2   1.48      .580   17.6   5.5   1.9   1.01
.39   Hibbert,Roy    Ind   .539   21.0  12.8   2.6   1.89      .499   16.9  10.5   2.9   1.35
.39   Bryant,Kobe    LAL   .540   36.5   6.1   4.8   2.79      .538   30.5   6.0   5.5   2.43

.39   Lawson,Ty      Den   .593   21.0   3.7   7.8   1.74      .583   16.2   3.7   6.8   1.23
.39   Harrington,Al  Den   .632   22.0   7.5   1.3   1.36      .521   14.6   6.8   2.1    .73
.38   Green,Daniel   SAS   .583   17.0   7.8   2.9   1.50      .586   14.8   5.2    .7    .53
.37   Lowry,Kyle     Hou   .576   19.4   7.2   7.5   1.77      .541   14.7   4.7   7.6   1.29
.34   West,Delonte   Dal   .490   14.4   3.1   7.0   1.09  Bos .529   10.8   2.9   4.8    .52

If Mullens and Lucas are given .00 for last year's eW/484, their eWins+ are .75 and .49, respectively.
Atl has 6 players +.17 or greater, Den has 5 up .22 or more, LAL and NOH each with 4 who are up .20; and for most-improved Philly, 4 are up .30 or more.

[kjb]

javale mcgee has some of the best per minute shot blocking and rebounding numbers in the entire league, yet Synergy shows his man defense as pretty much the worst on the team...

Does Synergy do anything with help D? That's probably even worse.

McGee is an awful defender despite the blocks -- maybe because of them. He's so attuned to blocking shots that he kinda ignores just about everything else. He'll drift from his own man to chase blocks elsewhere. He'll wait on rotations so he can spring for the block instead of getting in position and forcing a miss or a tough shot.

[J.E.]

McGee is an awful defender despite the blocks -- maybe because of them. He's so attuned to blocking shots that he kinda ignores just about everything else. He'll drift from his own man to chase blocks elsewhere. He'll wait on rotations so he can spring for the block instead of getting in position and forcing a miss or a tough shot.

What about goaltending? I'd guess he does some of those, too. His teammates certainly do stuff like this

[kjb]

You had to mention goaltending, didn't you?!

Yeah, I'd be shocked if McGee doesn't lead the league in goaltending calls. It felt like he was cutting down on goaltends in the first few games, but that feeling is gone.

[EvanZ]

javale mcgee has some of the best per minute shot blocking and rebounding numbers in the entire league, yet Synergy shows his man defense as pretty much the worst on the team...

Does Synergy do anything with help D? That's probably even worse.

I tend to use Spot-Up d as a proxy for help defense, thinking that a big man who can get out and defend jump shots well is probably playing good team defense. What do you (or anyone) think about that?

[Mike G]

The most unimproved or regressed: those running an eWins deficit, compared to last year after this many minutes.

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eW+     per36 rates    tm    Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484 2011- Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484
-.84   Martin,Kevin   Hou   .527   18.8   3.2   2.7    .94      .586   28.4   3.9   2.9   1.81
-.60   Salmons,John   Sac   .409    8.8   4.6   2.2    .21  Mil .503   16.1   4.1   3.6    .91
-.54   Gasol,Pau      LAL   .555   18.1   9.7   2.2   1.57      .577   21.5  10.8   3.6   2.04
-.54   Nelson,Jameer  Orl   .481   10.5   3.3   8.3    .64      .542   18.1   4.1   8.1   1.42
-.53   Scola,Luis     Hou   .481   18.8   7.4   2.0   1.07      .531   20.8   9.9   3.1   1.69

-.52   Williams,Deron NJN   .484   18.6   3.5   8.1   1.29      .555   20.7   4.3   9.6   1.84
-.52   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   .503   17.2   9.7   3.1   1.42      .567   21.2  11.7   3.1   2.09
-.51  Prince,Tayshaun Det   .428   11.2   4.1   2.2    .42      .506   16.0   5.4   3.0   1.01
-.49   Odom,Lamar     Dal   .397   12.3   8.5   2.6    .77  LAL .581   18.1  10.1   3.6   1.61
-.49   Noah,Joakim    Chi   .455   11.1  12.0   2.3   1.07      .566   15.8  13.5   2.8   1.66

-.48   Felton,Raymond Por   .410   11.4   3.3   8.4    .76  Den .517   14.7   3.6   8.7   1.28
-.45   Battier,Shane  Mia   .427    5.3   2.8   1.1   -.18  Mem .562   10.0   6.0   3.0    .62
-.44   Hickson,J.J.   Sac   .420    9.5  10.5   1.1    .63  Cle .494   16.9  11.8   1.4   1.26
-.41   Harris,Devin   Uta   .485   12.9   2.0   6.4    .66      .532   18.5   3.1   7.7   1.30
-.38  Jackson,Stephen Mil   .494   17.0   4.5   3.2    .74  Cha .512   19.9   5.3   3.5   1.19

After a very good game by Kevin Martin -- 25 pts on 21 shots, 8 Ast -- I thought he might escape the cellar. But that game is still only about an average game for him, last year. So it did little or nothing to erase his .84 eW deficit. He'll just have to hope someone else passes him.

Salmons looks likely, as he continues to get lots of minutes, without yet having a good game.