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2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 1:33 pm
by Mike G
Heat 1, Celtics 0
Score 93-79
Pyth wins: .90 - .10; eWins .70 - .30
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.25 James,Lebron Mia 44 .604 36.3 11.7 3.1 .8 2.5 2.5 2.70
.19 Wade,Dwyane Mia 38 .688 32.1 3.1 8.4 1.0 3.8 1.9 2.41
.16 Garnett,Kevin Bos 31 .605 33.5 12.8 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.44
.10 Battier,Shane Mia 36 .455 10.4 11.0 2.8 1.0 .0 2.0 1.28
.08 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 12 1.00 29.8 12.5 2.6 .0 .0 .0 3.07
.07 Rondo,Rajon Bos 44 .400 12.4 8.1 5.6 .8 3.3 .0 .72
.06 Chalmers,Mario Mia 40 .409 8.3 5.0 4.9 .0 .9 .9 .66
.05 Miller,Mike Mia 12 .800 37.0 9.4 .0 .0 2.9 .0 1.91
.03 Turiaf,Ronny Mia 18 .667 11.3 11.0 .0 .0 2.0 2.0 .89
.03 Anthony,Joel Mia 20 .375 5.0 11.5 .0 .0 1.7 3.5 .73
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.01 Allen,Ray Bos 39 .286 4.0 5.1 1.7 1.9 .9 .0 .12
.00 Jones,James Mia 10 .500 11.3 3.7 .0 .0 .0 .0 .18
.00 Pierce,Paul Bos 40 .333 8.7 2.0 2.7 .9 .9 .0 .01
.00 Dooling,Keyon Bos 12 .500 8.6 .0 2.6 .0 .0 .0 -.05
-.02 Haslem,Udonis Mia 15 .000 .0 5.0 3.1 .0 2.3 .0 -.57
-.02 Bass,Brandon Bos 34 .333 6.5 2.3 1.0 .0 .0 .0 -.26
-.02 Pietrus,Mickael Bos 17 .167 1.0 .0 .0 2.0 .0 .0 -.67
Shooting: Mia .557 - .432 Bos
Rebounds: Mia 48 - 33 Bos
Turnovers: Bos 7 - 12 Mia
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 12:36 pm
by Mike G
Heat 2, Celtics 0
Avg score: 104-95
Pyth wins: 1.54 - .46; eWins 1.27 - .73
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.44 James,Lebron Mia 46 .564 28.6 10.1 4.6 .8 1.6 1.6 2.28
.35 Rondo,Rajon Bos 49 .600 24.3 7.1 6.0 1.5 2.6 .0 1.73
.30 Wade,Dwyane Mia 41 .616 23.9 4.5 5.7 .9 2.7 1.8 1.74
.17 Garnett,Kevin Bos 38 .513 18.3 9.7 .9 .5 1.0 .5 1.08
.16 Chalmers,Mario Mia 43 .508 13.2 4.3 5.2 .9 1.7 .4 .89
.10 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 9 1.00 26.9 15.6 1.9 .0 .0 .0 2.92
.10 Haslem,Udonis Mia 23 .419 8.4 11.2 3.8 1.5 .8 .8 1.08
.08 Battier,Shane Mia 41 .475 7.5 6.5 1.6 .9 .4 .9 .49
.07 Turiaf,Ronny Mia 12 .750 13.4 12.8 .0 .0 1.6 3.3 1.44
.06 Bass,Brandon Bos 32 .444 7.5 7.8 1.1 .0 .0 .6 .44
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.06 Miller,Mike Mia 13 .625 23.4 7.4 1.6 .0 2.6 .0 1.05
.04 Allen,Ray Bos 41 .432 6.6 5.0 .9 1.8 .4 .0 .26
.04 Anthony,Joel Mia 20 .417 3.6 8.9 1.1 .0 .9 1.8 .51
.04 Pierce,Paul Bos 42 .413 11.1 3.9 2.7 .4 1.7 .4 .24
.00 Jones,James Mia 12 .600 9.8 3.3 .0 .0 .0 .0 .10
-.01 Dooling,Keyon Bos 14 .625 6.8 .0 2.5 .0 .0 .0 -.15
-.05 Pietrus,Mickael Bos 23 .333 1.9 1.7 .0 .8 .0 .0 -.56
Shooting: Mia .547 - .508 Bos
Rebounds: Mia 42.8 - 35.6 Bos
Turnovers: Bos 7.5 - 10.0 Mia
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2012 9:07 pm
by Mike G
Heat 2, Celtics 1
Avg score: Mia 99.7 - 99.0 Bos
Pyth wins: 1.77 - 1.23; eWins 1.63 - 1.37
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.61 James,Lebron Mia 45 .575 31.6 9.4 3.8 1.1 1.9 1.6 2.15
.51 Rondo,Rajon Bos 47 .591 25.1 6.7 6.3 1.3 2.3 .0 1.76
.32 Garnett,Kevin Bos 37 .551 23.9 11.0 .6 .3 2.0 .7 1.38
.32 Wade,Dwyane Mia 41 .558 21.0 4.3 4.2 .9 2.6 1.8 1.22
.19 Chalmers,Mario Mia 43 .506 12.6 3.2 4.3 .8 1.4 .3 .69
.14 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 7 .900 30.7 12.9 1.5 .0 .0 .0 3.15
.13 Miller,Mike Mia 16 .634 25.1 9.1 .7 .0 1.5 .0 1.35
.12 Turiaf,Ronny Mia 11 .750 18.6 14.0 .0 .0 2.5 2.5 1.86
.12 Haslem,Udonis Mia 20 .432 7.3 12.2 2.1 1.1 .6 1.1 .96
.10 Pierce,Paul Bos 41 .434 13.2 4.0 2.7 .6 2.1 .9 .40
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.09 Daniels,Marquis Bos 7 .688 27.6 9.7 1.6 1.7 .0 .0 2.10
.09 Bass,Brandon Bos 27 .455 8.0 8.5 1.3 .0 .5 .5 .52
.08 Allen,Ray Bos 40 .483 7.9 5.2 .6 1.2 .3 .0 .33
.07 Anthony,Joel Mia 17 .563 6.9 6.9 .6 .0 .7 1.3 .62
.06 Dooling,Keyon Bos 16 .750 14.3 3.3 1.3 .0 1.5 .7 .64
.03 Jones,James Mia 11 .625 13.4 3.5 .0 1.0 1.0 .0 .48
.02 Battier,Shane Mia 40 .365 3.7 5.5 2.0 .6 .6 .6 .09
-.03 Pietrus,Mickael Bos 22 .333 1.8 3.6 .0 1.1 .0 .0 -.22
shooting: Mia .540 - .527 Bos
Rebounds: Mia 39.3 - 38.3 Bos
Turnovers: Bos 9.3 - 10.0 Mia
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 12:58 pm
by Mike G
Heat 2, Celtics 2
Avg score: Mia 97.5 - 96.0 Bos
Pyth wins: 2.21 - 1.79; eWins 2.10 - 1.90
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.78 James,Lebron Mia 46 .556 30.0 8.6 3.5 1.0 2.8 1.4 2.06
.73 Rondo,Rajon Bos 47 .575 22.6 6.3 7.8 1.0 2.4 .0 1.88
.45 Garnett,Kevin Bos 38 .516 20.5 11.9 1.1 .7 2.6 1.7 1.42
.43 Wade,Dwyane Mia 44 .512 18.0 4.9 4.3 1.3 2.7 1.9 1.17
.29 Haslem,Udonis Mia 24 .528 10.4 14.4 2.0 1.0 1.0 .7 1.45
.24 Chalmers,Mario Mia 41 .487 12.3 3.4 4.4 .9 1.6 .2 .69
.21 Pierce,Paul Bos 41 .462 15.8 4.7 2.1 .9 2.2 .7 .61
.17 Bass,Brandon Bos 28 .477 9.3 8.6 1.8 .6 1.0 .3 .73
.13 Dooling,Keyon Bos 16 .786 20.1 2.3 1.0 .0 1.0 .5 .98
.12 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 6 .900 25.9 10.7 1.2 .0 .0 .0 2.70
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.11 Turiaf,Ronny Mia 8 .750 17.0 12.8 .0 .0 2.2 2.2 1.68
.11 Miller,Mike Mia 15 .571 18.0 7.6 1.1 .0 1.1 .0 .89
.09 Anthony,Joel Mia 17 .611 7.2 7.0 .5 .0 .5 1.5 .66
.09 Allen,Ray Bos 42 .489 9.4 4.3 .6 .9 .7 .0 .25
.05 Daniels,Marquis Bos 9 .600 13.0 5.0 .8 .9 .0 .0 .74
.04 Jones,James Mia 11 .591 11.1 4.1 .7 .7 .7 .0 .38
.02 Cole,Norris Mia 7 .455 5.0 1.3 4.4 1.1 .0 .0 .39
-.01 Battier,Shane Mia 41 .417 4.3 4.2 1.8 .5 .9 .7 -.04
-.05 Pietrus,Mickael Bos 22 .231 .8 4.7 .0 .7 .0 .7 -.29
shooting: Mia .528 - .518 Bos
rebounding: Mia 38.5 - 37.5 Bos
turnovers: Bos 10.8 - 11.8 Mia
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 2:15 pm
by browning
Looks like Lebron has been #1 in eWins in every playoff game he has been in so far. He is good.
Can you share the current ewins formula? I googled but couldnt find anything definitive.
Maybe it kind of undervalued Paul Pierce in game 4? He had a decent game
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2012 2:45 pm
by Mike G
There are 1.00 eWins per game, divided among players for both teams.
These tables show cumulative eWins (equivalent wins) after one game, after 2, etc.
Here I've just copied them from the previous 4 posts; then subtracted from the previous cumulative total to get each game's eW (2nd set of columns), for the top 4 players with each team.
Code: Select all
Team Cumulative eWins Single Game eWins
_Miami G1 G2 G3 G4 G1 G2 G3 G4
LeBron .25 .44 .61 .78 .25 .19 .17 .17
Wade .19 .30 .32 .43 .19 .11 .02 .11
Haslem -.02 .10 .12 .29 -.02 .12 .02 .17
Chalmers .06 .16 .19 .24 .06 .10 .03 .05
_Boston G1 G2 G3 G4 G1 G2 G3 G4
Rondo .07 .35 .51 .73 .07 .28 .16 .22
Garnett .16 .17 .32 .45 .16 .01 .15 .13
Pierce .00 .04 .10 .21 .00 .04 .06 .11
Bass -.02 .06 .09 .17 -.02 .08 .03 .08
LeBron led all players in eWins for games 1 and 3; Rondo in G2 and 4.
This method of "reconstituting" single game eWins does not give exactly the same results that you'd get by doing each game separately. See the thread "General Playoff Thoughts", for team results on that subject.
http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=7946
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2012 1:25 pm
by Mike G
Celtics 3, Heat 2
Avg score: Mia 96.0 - 95.6 Bos
Pyth wins: 2.57 - 2.43; eWins 2.53 - 2.47
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.95 James,Lebron Mia 46 .548 28.9 8.9 3.1 1.1 2.7 1.3 2.00
.74 Rondo,Rajon Bos 46 .518 17.1 6.0 8.3 1.4 2.7 .0 1.55
.65 Garnett,Kevin Bos 38 .527 22.8 11.8 1.3 .8 2.3 1.8 1.64
.54 Wade,Dwyane Mia 43 .514 19.8 5.0 4.0 1.0 2.7 1.7 1.21
.35 Haslem,Udonis Mia 26 .477 8.1 15.2 1.8 .8 1.3 .5 1.28
.27 Pierce,Paul Bos 41 .458 15.9 4.4 2.4 1.1 2.1 .5 .63
.27 Chalmers,Mario Mia 40 .493 12.1 3.5 4.1 .9 1.8 .2 .65
.24 Bass,Brandon Bos 29 .494 10.7 7.9 1.5 1.0 1.0 .5 .81
.20 Stiemsma,Greg Bos 6 .857 24.9 13.4 1.0 1.1 .0 .0 3.22
.16 Dooling,Keyon Bos 14 .833 21.0 2.1 .9 .0 .9 .5 1.09
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e480
.14 Allen,Ray Bos 41 .492 10.0 4.8 .5 .9 .7 .2 .34
.12 Miller,Mike Mia 14 .564 17.2 7.6 .9 .0 1.0 .0 .85
.12 Turiaf,Ronny Mia 6 .750 17.5 13.4 .0 .0 2.4 2.4 1.82
.10 Anthony,Joel Mia 13 .611 7.4 7.1 .5 .0 .5 1.6 .71
.06 Daniels,Marquis Bos 8 .600 12.8 4.8 .8 .9 .0 .0 .77
.04 Bosh,Chris Mia 3 .474 20.6 18.8 .0 .0 2.4 .0 1.53
.03 Jones,James Mia 12 .548 10.3 3.7 .5 1.1 1.1 .0 .26
.01 Cole,Norris Mia 8 .263 2.1 1.0 5.0 2.6 .9 .0 .13
-.01 Pietrus,Mickael Bos 23 .432 4.7 4.6 .0 1.2 .6 .6 -.03
-.02 Battier,Shane Mia 39 .441 4.9 3.8 1.8 .4 .9 .8 -.04
shooting: Mia .518 - .513 Bos
rebounds: Mia 40.5 - 37.8 Bos
turnovers: Bos 11.0 - 12.4 Mia
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2012 3:35 pm
by schtevie
I don't know why I am surprised, but I really would have thought that the post-game coverage of Game 5 would have had a slightly different aspect, given that the pre-game coverage (correctly) emphasized the potential impact of Chris Bosh's return.
For context, in the three games he played against the Celtics in the regular season (Miami being the home team in two) his +/- per minute was 0.151. By contrast, the Heat as a whole were -0.132, implying that the "not Chris Bosh" +/- per minute in those three games was -0.921. So, it could be inferred, and was, that a healthy Chris Bosh could be instrumental in securing a playoff victory. The question mark surrounded his health in returning from the abdominal strain.
Read this,
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamih ... -maelstrom, however, and you get no clue that Bosh's 14 minutes at -12 in total (a per minute -0.857) were a +/- disaster. Miami won the non-Bosh game! Quotations are offered from Wade and Spoelstra. It is obvious from the quoted remarks why the coach didn't choose to highlight the fact that his rather big gamble didn't pay off. And you can understand that Dwayne Wade might not have a clue. But the writer has no such excuse.
I am curious if anyone has a citation for a piece of journalism that actually follows up critically on what was the only new, relevant, and main storyline going into the game? Good journalism deserves to be praised.
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2012 5:13 pm
by browning
I don't think you should look at +/- for 1 game to rate Bosh.
plus minus doesn't mean a whole lot over 1 game.
If you look at Bosh's game in detail, he basically played 3 seperate short stints.
1st quarter he came in the game up 4 and left up 8. So that was good.
2nd quarter he came in up 8 and left up 2. Not as good.. but Wade was out for most of this time, also if Mike Miller or Battier connect on 1 of their 3s its a different story.
3rd quarter is where most of his negative plus minus comes from, they were -10 during this stretch, but Wade and Chalmers were out during most of the time he was in. It was a disaster of a rotation for Miami , but I don't think you can put this all on Bosh.
When he was on the court with Wade and Lebron they played quite well together.
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2012 6:15 pm
by schtevie
If all you've got is a game (and it is the responsibility of journalists to cover that game) you should look at everything you have to rate Bosh - especially given the fact that his prospective participation was really the story going in. And if you think you shouldn't look at +/1 for 1 game then you surely shouldn't look at 1 game rotations in +/- terms either.
Look, the fact of the matter is that his was the worst +/- of the team and that the big question, ex ante, was whether coming back early off an abdominal strain (which is a subtly nasty injury) would compromise his effectiveness. So, we are looking at a reasonable prior that his effectiveness would be compromised to some degree, combined with the most robust ex post single metric (+/-) suggesting that his play was indeed compromised. Given the before game commentary, this basic argument/analysis should have found its way into every summary article.
As for the rotation argument itself, the regular season "Bosh less Wade" evidence doesn't support this as an explanation. There is a suggestion in this post-season that this matters, but that too is small sample size theater.
And, by the way, I am not putting this on Bosh. I trust he played as well as he was able. This is clearly on the coaching staff, whose decision it was. Whether it was rational or irrational is a longer discussion. That it wasn't front and center in today's commentary, not so much.
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2012 8:01 pm
by xkonk
Maybe I'm giving the author too much credit, but that article schtevie linked to seemed to be more about Bosh's up-and-down season than about why the Heat won or lost game 5. The three paragraphs about his play in the game, starting at "Bosh's play in the first half..." follow that theme - Bosh was good (or at least things went well), then he was bad. As was mentioned, you can't expect Spoelstra or Wade to say anything bad, although I'd add in the fact that a player would have to be both atrocious and disliked to get bad-mouthed about a game where he returned from injury. Most of the other coverage I've seen on ESPN has been too busy talking about LeBron's lack of 4th quarter fortitude to talk much about Bosh.
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2012 9:37 pm
by schtevie
xkonk, I think you might be giving the author a bit too much credit, but it wasn't really my attention to single him out, just to provide an illustration of the general failure.
Regarding what I might expect Spoelstra or Wade to say, I'm not sure. Does anyone know if they were asked point blank questions on the specific issue of whether Bosh came back too soon?
In this (nice) article on the general subject written prior to the game -
http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2012/st ... on-celtics - Brian Windhorst offers this quote from Wade:
"We have other guys that he (Kevin Garnett) doesn't feel are much of an offensive threat," Wade said. "That's been the biggest difference in this whole series. I've played against Boston a lot of times and they haven't been able to play the way they're playing me now."
So, he's perfectly happy to throw teammates under the bus in this context.
But of more general interest, there are these last three paragraphs in the article:
"Garnett knows a little something about what Bosh is going through. During Boston's championship season in 2008, Garnett missed slightly over three weeks with an abdominal strain and returned in a February game to tally four points, four turnovers and eight rebounds in just 20 minutes. The Celtics lost that February game to Denver.
Garnett remembers what it felt like to test his core muscles in a actual game setting, but Garnett is keeping his secrets close to the vest, in case Bosh might be looking for tips. When asked whether he had any specific memories from that game, Garnett made a simple reply.
"I don't. No memories that I'd like to share."
Let me try to imagine KG's memories in +/- form from that game and the ones that followed and share them here. The Denver game was his first game back, in +/- he was -12. The next game was against Golden State (also an above average team at that point in that season) and KG's +/- was -1. Then the game after that Boston faced a then highly-above average Phoenix team and KG's +/- was -14. It is only in the 4th game after coming back that KG's +/- got into positive territory, though not playing against elite competition.
So, perhaps we might then infer that in Bosh's 4th game back his time on the court will see a net positive contribution on the scoreboard.
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2012 9:41 am
by browning
You really need to rewatch the last 3 minutes of the 3rd quarter.
That is where Bosh's negative plus minus comes from.
Look at each play. The breakdown is not Bosh's fault.
Sure you can look at all of the data , but in this case the plus minus for Bosh doesn't mean much of anything.
9 points 7 rebounds in 14 minutes is a really good outing. You shouldn't let the plus minus number tarnish that.
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2012 2:23 pm
by schtevie
Technically, I cannot rewatch the third quarter as I have not yet watched it. And your point (that I might be embellishing) could well be absolutely correct: that Bosh was absolutely fit and ready to go, in fact, had a great game, the +/- result was spurious, and his lack of fourth quarter playing time was a plain mistake. In which case, this would be extraordinarily damning of Erik Spoelstra.
But here's my wild guess as to what was going on on the sidelines. Before the game there was some target minutes they wanted CB to play, reflecting the nature of and time since the injury. Quarter one happens. By your record, his was a +4, a fact surely noted on the bench. Quarter two, -6. Not a good sign. Then quarter three, -10. At that point, the decision was made - surely (?) also based upon the actual game observations and not just the quarterly stat sheets - that it wouldn't be "fair" to put CB in for the fourth.
But now we hear that Bosh is slated for a more significant role in game six. Perhaps that reflects political weakness on the part of Spoelstra. Perhaps it reflects new medical information. Who knows?
The initial point I was trying to make however regarded the (lack of) follow-up reporting on fundamentals. An injury to a key player is a basic determinant of changes in the expected range of game outcomes. After taking into account such factors, the ball then bounces. I suppose talk of Paul Pierce's random reptilian transformation on the last shot is considered sexier by most journalists and the reading audience, hence that is what we tend to get, but the conspicuous dropping of the most interesting pre-game story line is what bugged me.
It may well be - despite the similar recuperation intervals - that Bosh's abdominal strain was much milder than one that adversely affected KG's play in 2008, but that one was very real, and it mattered competitively.
Here's a conditional prediction that's way, way out there. Should Boston clinch in game six in a competitive game, with Bosh having a non-factor, tepid kind of performance (reflecting "core" weakness) and LBJ not having absolutely the best individual performance of his career, there will be hardly a mention in the post-game reporting of the influence and relevance of Bosh's diminished capacity. All we will hear about is psychodrama, how the outcome proves James' ultimate lack of greatness, blah, blah, blah...
Blech.
Re: 2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia
Posted: Thu Jun 07, 2012 5:30 pm
by kjb
schtevie: I share your "blech" on the state of basketball punditry, especially as it focuses on Lebron and the Heat. This morning I listened to Tim Legler speaking as someone who "knows what he's talking about" (a phrase he used to refer to himself -- after talking about Jeff Van Gundy's critique of people who were knocking Spoelstra) and knocking Spoelstra for not helping the Heat against Boston. Then, with no trace of irony (or even apparent knowledge of the contradictory nature of his consecutive statements), he talked about how the absence of Bosh made Boston's defensive task easier.
Gee, Legs -- maybe Spoelstra hasn't been able to help his team against the Celtics very much because he's missing a key part of that team. A particularly damaging loss considering that the Heat's roster is constructed to be Lebron, Wade, Bosh and not much else.