APBRmetrics

Dear all,

Dick Mays has revamped his coaching system based on the Magic Metric philosophy. Remember that I posted some material regarding this metric some months ago. I think it is a very interesting way of thinking about rotations in basketball. Maybe some coaches would be interested in the May's proposal.

Here I link the new paper on Dick Mays about this theme:

http://www.upct.es/~beside/Textos/MagicMetric_NBA.pdf

Another stuff on Magic Metric is here:

http://www.upct.es/~beside/Textos/MagicMetric.pdf

http://www.upct.es/~beside/Textos/MMCoachingSystem.pdf

Please, be free to contact him (contact details are written in the paper), for any question or suggestion regarding this paper. Dick would be happy to obtain feedback from the APBR community.

Thanks to all and enjoy the paper!
Best
Jose

I agree that unconventional lineups are worth considering. Matching up by height is probably an overly rigid habit. But sometimes ignoring it (and / or reach & hops) can burn you bad in the NBA. Player rates are often reviewed used average rates of performance; but, if one is to properly consider and track unconventional uses, then player performance needs to be tracked at that level- i.e. traditional SG when playing at SF, etc. Rebounding should be viewed at elasticities and the elasticities are contingent on the specific lineup and matchups.

The Magic Metric selects to credit defensive rebounds the same as offensive rebounds. Whether one agrees with that or not, it is important to keep it mind when viewing the player ratings.

I like the idea of a rotation system and I think the idea works out a lot better at the amateur level. 1) because there isn't as much a pressure to succeed but sometimes there is pressure from players that think they deserve more playing time or that the system isn't fair. Creating a system like this allows a coach to defend his reasoning a lot better because the rotations become based on conduct and actual playing time. 2) because the game becomes a lot more about talent and chemistry than effort and hustle at the NBA level. I imagine if you look at a lot of these good teams, their best line ups (based on +/- numbers) usually get played a good chunk of the game. A lot of these teams will play the same 3-4 guys together a lot and in that way you can really build chemistry because everyone knows their role. It's also not really much of a motivator to play better if you are someone like Pau Gasol... to get knocked down a spot because you've been playing badly when you know that the media pressure against the coach would be just as great or even greater.

Also, I think in the NBA, it's much easier to punish a team that trots out a line-up with one guy who is a good dribbler or one guy that is a good rebounder or if you are playing a line-up with no one that can hit the 3. I think initially teams will be caught off guard and won't be able to take advantage of it by the time you switch... but teams scout in the NBA. If you routinely throw these line-ups out, people will take advantage of it.

But at the high school level? A system like this is perfect because effort can play a factor in how good a player is at that level. And at the high school level you aren't going to get completely burned by having only one that can handle the ball effectively or throwing out a small or big line-up.

Really good points. I don't think it is possible to use the system in the NBA, because if you are being made millions of dollars for your coaching judgment, how can you toss all of that out and use a predefined rotation? Someone will call for your head.

But we seemed to win a lot more games, so it is interesting to speculate whether it would work at higher levels.

I threw the paper out there for comments, and thanks for your interest.

DickMays wrote:Really good points. I don't think it is possible to use the system in the NBA, because if you are being made millions of dollars for your coaching judgment, how can you toss all of that out and use a predefined rotation? Someone will call for your head.

But we seemed to win a lot more games, so it is interesting to speculate whether it would work at higher levels.

I threw the paper out there for comments, and thanks for your interest.

I think you could make a good argument that the good coaches in the NBA do kind of use the same principles that the rotation system uses. But they don't just flatout go "okay I just plugged the numbers in and this is what the rotations are going to be like for this game"... although as the season goes on they might have kind of a basic rotation that they might tweak based on who is hot at the time.

Kirb,

I think you are right. Some coaches seem to be doing a very similar thing, not starting all their best players. The Spurs have Ginobili, the Mav's have Jason Terry, and the Thunder have Harden coming off the bench. These players are typically in in there at the finish, and rate in as the top 3 or 4 player on the team. Dirk averaged 40 minutes last season in the Finals, and while James was out there about 45 minutes. Using the rotation system, you can give these 5 minutes to some guy who will come in bang with the guys, push and shove and pick up a couple of fouls. Then the other team is tired at the end instead of James being exhausted. I think Miami is the team that would benefit the most from adopting a rotation. Bosh, James and Wade will get their minutes, and then you would find the guys who can contribute EFFECTIVELY while playing with the top talent. That is the team to put on the floor. Let those other guys earn their playing time by being aggressive on the court.

Dick