APBRmetrics

Jerry,

what is a +1 per 48 minutes on RAPM guy worth on salary?
+2 or +3?

I can probably figure it out but wanted to ask if you have the figures handy and I wanted to see if you value the second and third positive point the same or more than the first.


What level RAPM should an $8 mil a year guy post to give fair, average return?

It's hard to do exactly with RAPM, because replacement level players are skewed toward 0...

The current value I have is estimated is $3.8 million per 1 point over replacement level*%100 Playing Time. So if a player is a +0 and plays 50% of the time, and replacement level is -3.25, the player would be worth +3.25*0.5*3.8 million = $6.2 million.

So, for example, RAPM has Dirk as worth +8, and he played 65% of the Mavs minutes, so he'd be worth (8-(-3.25))*0.65*3.8 = $28 million a year.

This doesn't work so well for low minute players that are skewed toward 0, however, since they are considered above replacement level when they actually are about replacement level and therefore basically interchangeable for min contract.

So using your information, a 30 minute per game player would have to be just fractionally positive on RAPM to deliver a fair return on an $8 million salary. That does not seem too demanding to expect or find.

A 30 minute per game +1 player would be "worth" $10 million.
+2, almost $12.5 million
+3, almost $15 million.

So anyone playing 30+ minutes per game and consistently +2 or better and expected to stay that way is by RAPM estimate "worth" a near max or max contract.