APBRmetrics

Posted: **Tue Oct 30, 2012 7:42 pm**

My predictions for this regular season (totals and team breakdown) are up at my new blog: http://thenbamodeller.wordpress.com/, anybody care to share their own thoughts? It's a bit quiet around here all things considered...

Posted: **Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:10 pm**

As you know, I replied at your site. Hope you get other feedback here or there.

I probably won't be making a full set of predictions this year.

Still interested in seeing others, if they want to post them. Maybe by Monday?

Posted: **Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:23 pm**

Here were my "dumb" projections: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=964

Any projection system worth its salt should beat those.

BP's final SCHOENE projections are here: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/art ... cleid=2433

Hollinger's updated, post-Harden trade projections are here: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... kets-trade

DSMok1 posted his ASPM-fueled projections here: http://t.co/d6RCbnhU

Anybody I'm forgetting?

Posted: **Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:35 pm**

Bobbofitos' picks: http://pointsperpossession.com/nba/34-n ... rt-eckstut

Mike G, mystic, EvanZ, J.E., have you posted your projections somewhere? Does anybody have final Vegas numbers?

Last season's thread: http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.p ... &start=195

Posted: **Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:06 pm**

Bovada.lv's over/unders are here: http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnatio ... by-bovada/

This post compared Bovada to the LV Hilton's win totals (although this was before the Harden trade): http://www.beyondthebets.com/nba-season ... pare-2012/

Posted: **Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:04 pm**

Here are all of those in a table (I scaled everybody to 1230 total wins):

Code: Select all

Team    Conf    SCHOENE JH      DSM_2   DSM_1   TmRkgs  "dumb"  v-zero  Bovada  TPR     WoW2    WoW1    Bobbo   LVH     ESPN S.F.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Date->  10/30   10/30   10/30   10/29   10/30   10/30   10/30   10/30   10/30   10/31   10/30   10/23   10/10   8/20
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATL     E       49.1    45.0    50.0    49.0    44.5    47.7    41.7    43.7    46.0    46.4    47.7    46.0    42.7    40.0
BOS     E       48.2    48.0    42.0    43.0    45.7    46.0    48.8    50.7    48.0    42.1    43.7    38.0    49.7    50.0
BRK     E       44.5    46.0    41.0    40.0    39.9    40.9    36.3    44.7    47.0    32.4    32.5    33.0    43.2    46.0
CHA     E       20.5    16.0    23.0    24.0    23.6    21.0    18.3    18.6    19.0    19.3    19.2    20.0    19.4    19.0
CHI     E       46.5    43.0    42.0    42.0    47.5    47.7    52.2    47.7    42.5    46.1    44.3    45.0    47.2    46.0
CLE     E       32.1    34.0    27.0    27.0    29.7    28.3    26.4    30.6    34.0    28.7    31.5    30.0    31.8    33.0
DAL     W       41.0    42.0    42.0    41.0    42.1    38.6    38.1    41.7    38.5    32.6    32.9    38.0    44.2    46.0
DEN     W       55.3    59.0    49.0    49.0    45.4    46.4    53.5    51.7    55.0    55.7    58.4    52.0    49.2    50.0
DET     E       30.9    27.0    29.0    29.0    31.8    31.7    26.6    31.6    28.0    24.5    26.8    27.0    32.3    30.0
GSW     W       29.2    40.0    31.0    31.0    36.1    35.0    33.7    36.6    39.0    37.5    37.4    42.0    34.8    38.0
HOU     W       29.6    37.0    35.0    34.0    35.2    39.6    45.0    33.6    29.5    40.9    42.7    38.0    30.3    33.0
IND     E       43.9    52.0    46.0    47.0    45.0    46.0    42.2    50.7    49.5    41.6    42.3    50.0    51.2    50.0
LAC     W       49.2    47.0    48.0    47.0    47.7    48.9    48.8    49.7    48.5    49.7    46.8    49.0    49.2    50.0
LAL     W       54.3    53.0    49.0    49.0    45.8    50.0    47.7    56.7    53.0    47.6    46.8    45.0    58.6    59.0
MEM     W       45.2    50.0    49.0    51.0    42.7    45.4    43.4    48.7    45.0    45.4    45.1    53.0    48.7    48.0
MIA     E       58.0    64.0    57.0    56.0    54.7    56.2    61.1    60.7    61.0    56.1    55.4    58.0    59.6    60.0
MIL     E       38.3    37.0    41.0    41.0    42.7    40.5    40.9    36.6    41.0    43.1    40.7    43.0    36.8    37.0
MIN     W       51.4    43.0    45.0    45.0    42.7    41.7    45.5    39.6    44.0    52.2    49.9    47.0    39.8    41.0
NOH     W       35.7    30.0    34.0    34.0    34.2    35.1    31.4    27.6    34.0    44.1    41.7    37.0    26.3    31.0
NYK     E       45.5    44.0    51.0    51.0    46.6    49.7    53.3    45.2    46.5    56.5    55.3    45.0    45.2    45.0
OKC     W       51.1    54.0    52.0    52.0    49.4    49.8    54.8    58.7    53.5    52.2    54.3    55.0    60.1    59.0
ORL     E       27.6    17.0    35.0    34.0    36.7    40.2    34.8    23.6    21.0    27.2    27.7    28.0    24.4    21.0
PHI     E       45.8    45.0    42.0    42.0    45.0    39.9    42.2    45.7    45.0    40.7    39.2    46.0    47.2    46.0
PHO     W       28.3    24.0    37.0    37.0    38.7    35.6    34.3    31.6    28.5    30.2    28.6    33.0    33.3    30.0
POR     W       31.3    27.0    33.0    34.0    31.3    36.6    27.5    33.6    29.0    39.0    40.8    31.0    34.8    35.0
SAC     W       31.9    31.0    33.0    33.0    33.0    30.6    28.0    30.6    31.5    26.3    28.2    30.0    29.3    29.0
SAS     W       53.2    60.0    54.0    54.0    53.4    54.1    63.3    56.7    56.0    57.0    53.7    48.0    55.2    54.0
TOR     E       40.9    33.0    35.0    36.0    39.9    37.1    29.1    31.6    35.5    37.7    39.1    36.0    32.8    32.0
UTA     W       44.7    44.0    41.0    39.0    42.6    38.9    41.1    43.7    46.0    42.9    43.1    54.0    42.2    41.0
WAS     E       26.8    38.0    38.0    38.0    36.5    31.0    40.0    27.6    34.0    34.3    34.4    33.0    30.3    31.0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I added Wages of Wins (WoW), TeamRankings, and ESPN's Summer Forecast. (And Bobbofitos.) (And Arturo's 2nd set of projections.)

Posted: **Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:08 pm**

Hey Neil, thanks for compiling that into one neat table. Here were my final rankings: (If you could add mine, would be great)

Team Wins
Atlanta Hawks 46
Boston Celtics 38
Brooklyn Nets 33
Charlotte Bobcats 20
Chicago Bulls 45
Cleveland Cavaliers 30
Dallas Mavericks 38
Denver Nuggets 52
Detroit Pistons 27
Golden State Warriors 42
Houston Rockets 38
Indiana Pacers 50
Los Angeles Clippers 49
Los Angeles Lakers 45
Memphis Grizzlies 53
Miami Heat 58
Milwaukee Bucks 43
Minnesota Timberwolves 47
New Orleans Hornets 37
New York Knicks 45
Oklahoma City Thunder 55
Orlando Magic 28
Philadelphia Sixers 46
Phoenix Suns 33
Portland Trailblazers 31
Sacramento Kings 30
San Antonio Spurs 48
Toronto Raptors 36
Utah Jazz 54
Washington Wizards 33

Thanks!

Posted: **Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:14 pm**

Thanks for your responses at my site Crow, I have responded explaining both my stance on what you mentioned and some information regarding what I do and do not use as I feel APBR has a need to know whether somebody buys into RAPM or not.

Neil, thanks for bringing that all together, I had seen the thread for last year but the rest is all news to me - admittedly I've been working on my own stuff more than looking for anybody else's for the last few weeks. Since you work over at Sports-Reference if feel this is an opportune time to say that I use basketball-reference almost exclusively to get my data, and so I was wondering whether you have any guidelines regarding page scraping. Not the best way to do it so much as whether I should be limiting my page requests to N per second for some N? The last thing I want to do is bite the hand that feeds me.

Posted: **Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:47 pm**

I would say please don't scrape data from the site using bots/spidering scripts/etc. We scan for things like excessive activity from a particular IP address, so it's best to respect the terms of use and use common sense when gathering data.

Posted: **Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:52 pm**

Great, when the season is running I generally run a script every few days or so that pulls down the box score pages for matches that aren't currently in my database, then I parse them from local storage, hopefully that doesn't fall under what you'd consider a 'spider'.

Obviously part 6 of the T&C implies I should've asked already about data use, sorry about that.

Posted: **Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:16 pm**

Another set: http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/30/the-f ... ba-season/

Posted: **Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:50 pm**

Arturo has posted a second set after some people made complaints about his minute allocation algorithm: http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/31/nba-w ... d-edition/

Posted: **Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:32 am**

Ok, I added Arturo's mulligan as well. God forbid he put it in a format I can copy-paste instead of a .png.

Posted: **Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:27 pm**

I've been lax, and if I enter a prediction, it won't be eligible to 'win'. It's a lot less work for me when the rosters are set.

Posted: **Thu Nov 01, 2012 4:44 pm**

Too busy looking for a job right now and learning things like SQL.

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