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2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:32 pm
by Mike G
After 2 to 4 games per team, about 4% of the season. Assuming current % of minutes and games played, projected to the whole season.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
7.9 Lillard,Damian Por 37 .524 18.8 3.7 7.1 1.2 .7 2.9 .0 1.26
6.1 Davis,Anthony NOH 22 .644 29.7 11.5 .0 .0 1.7 .9 2.6 2.49
4.9 Waiters,Dion Cle 29 .586 21.2 3.1 2.4 1.3 1.6 2.9 .3 1.01
4.4 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 24 .385 10.1 9.5 2.0 1.6 3.9 3.1 2.4 1.11
3.6 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 19 .333 10.9 11.9 2.8 6.4 .0 1.3 2.6 1.10
3.4 Crowder,Jae Dal 20 .574 16.9 5.2 2.0 4.7 1.4 .5 .5 1.02
3.2 Zeller,Tyler Cle 19 .476 14.3 9.5 1.4 4.9 2.0 2.0 .5 1.02
3.1 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 19 .591 10.5 1.3 11.3 3.9 2.6 4.6 .0 .97
3.0 Drummond,Andre Det 18 .480 7.8 12.2 .6 4.1 1.4 2.0 3.4 .97
2.3 Ezeli,Festus GSW 18 .409 9.0 9.9 .0 4.7 2.6 2.1 2.1 .77
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
2.2 Singler,Kyle Det 22 .765 15.3 5.2 .9 2.8 .0 1.7 .6 .60
2.1 Sullinger,Jared Bos 19 .545 7.8 10.9 .0 5.9 1.3 .7 1.3 .66
1.8 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 9 .500 15.9 6.0 4.7 8.3 .0 2.1 2.1 1.16
1.5 Barnes,Harrison GSW 22 .536 13.1 2.7 3.1 5.5 .4 1.3 .0 .40
1.4 Robinson,Thomas Sac 15 .455 13.7 6.9 .0 7.0 3.8 3.2 .0 .58
1.3 Leonard,Meyers Por 20 .538 6.6 8.5 .9 3.7 .0 .9 1.4 .40
1.1 English,Kim Det 17 .533 11.6 1.6 3.0 2.9 2.2 2.2 .7 .41
0.8 James,Bernard Dal 9 .500 11.6 8.7 1.5 5.8 1.4 1.4 .0 .75
0.6 Rivers,Austin NOH 29 .300 7.5 2.6 4.1 3.4 2.1 2.9 .4 .12
0.5 Miller,Darius NOH 14 .300 2.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.4 1.7 .0 .19
Anthony Davis has played 2 of 3 games, and 44 minutes; so his e82 (eWins in 82 team games) assumes he averages 44 minutes per 3 games.
The Hornets have given 26% of minutes to 4 rookies.
East rookies project to 29 eW, West rookies to 28 eW.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:30 pm
by Crow
What is the deal with Barnes and rebounding? Now and in college?
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:40 pm
by kjb
Mike: What's average for the league? Just as a benchmark for rookie performances.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:56 am
by Mike G
This year, in a total of 1588 minutes, rookies have 2.35 eWins. That's .71 eW/484 min.
Last year, rookies totaled 69.7 eW in 48,092 min., or .70 eW/484
In 2010-11, it was 66.8 eW in 48,919 min, or .66 eW/484.
The raw median e484 last year for rookies was .50, and for veterans it was .75
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 8:16 pm
by Mike G
At 7.6% of the season, rookies total 59 projected eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
7.5 Lillard,Damian Por 38 .538 18.1 3.4 6.2 1.6 1.3 3.0 .0 1.17
6.7 Davis,Anthony NOH 27 .578 27.1 11.0 .9 .9 1.8 .9 3.6 2.49
6.6 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 30 .540 14.1 9.3 1.3 2.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 1.30
4.4 Beal,Bradley Was 30 .533 17.1 4.6 2.2 1.9 1.2 2.4 .5 .87
4.4 Waiters,Dion Cle 28 .590 19.7 2.8 2.6 1.8 1.1 2.2 .4 .92
4.0 Drummond,Andre Det 16 .686 14.8 10.9 .8 2.9 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.48
3.4 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 20 .490 13.9 10.5 1.8 5.3 .0 2.1 1.5 1.02
2.1 Roberts,Brian NOH 15 .519 17.3 2.3 6.5 2.2 .0 1.7 .0 1.02
2.0 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 17 .500 7.8 1.5 9.2 3.5 2.0 3.5 .0 .72
1.7 Sullinger,Jared Bos 18 .524 7.0 9.8 .7 4.5 .6 1.0 1.3 .58
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.7 Crowder,Jae Dal 22 .568 12.5 4.3 1.7 4.1 .9 1.4 .2 .47
1.6 Leonard,Meyers Por 19 .571 6.8 8.4 .8 3.8 .3 .9 1.2 .51
1.6 Singler,Kyle Det 21 .600 11.9 4.6 .4 2.8 .2 1.1 1.8 .45
1.6 Zeller,Tyler Cle 19 .476 12.9 8.9 1.3 4.5 1.8 1.8 .5 .90
1.5 Barnes,Harrison GSW 24 .532 13.0 3.6 1.9 5.0 .6 1.9 .2 .38
1.5 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 12 .588 15.4 6.4 .8 6.5 .0 1.9 1.4 .74
1.2 Teletovic,Mirza Brk 9 .433 15.2 7.3 3.6 1.1 2.3 .0 .0 1.25
1.0 Ezeli,Festus GSW 16 .393 6.2 8.6 .0 4.2 1.5 1.8 1.5 .36
0.8 Robinson,Thomas Sac 14 .449 10.7 8.5 .0 6.6 3.3 3.8 .5 .49
0.8 James,Bernard Dal 9 .538 10.0 10.5 .7 5.6 .7 1.4 .0 .72
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 3:58 pm
by Mike G
At 10.5% of the season, rookies headed for 61 total eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
7.8 Lillard,Damian Por 38 .558 19.5 3.5 6.1 1.8 1.3 3.3 .1 1.22
6.0 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 28 .534 15.6 9.1 1.9 3.9 1.6 2.5 2.3 1.28
5.8 Davis,Anthony NOH 28 .500 19.3 11.3 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.4 3.5 1.75
4.3 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 20 .532 16.9 10.8 2.2 5.8 .7 2.2 1.2 1.29
3.9 Drummond,Andre Det 15 .667 16.3 10.3 1.0 3.6 1.7 1.9 2.3 1.50
3.8 Waiters,Dion Cle 29 .535 18.0 3.2 2.6 1.9 1.3 2.3 .3 .78
3.5 Barnes,Harrison GSW 27 .556 16.0 6.3 1.7 4.2 .6 2.0 .2 .78
3.0 Beal,Bradley Was 29 .458 15.1 4.3 2.0 2.4 1.3 2.1 .4 .62
2.1 Singler,Kyle Det 23 .596 14.2 4.3 .5 3.7 .3 .9 1.3 .53
2.1 Crowder,Jae Dal 20 .584 14.0 4.3 2.1 4.0 1.1 1.4 .4 .63
2.0 Roberts,Brian NOH 16 .500 16.2 2.1 6.1 1.7 .7 2.0 .0 .85
1.9 Leonard,Meyers Por 18 .576 7.6 8.2 .6 3.7 .6 .8 1.4 .61
1.8 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 12 .579 9.5 1.5 7.6 3.7 2.6 2.6 .0 .87
1.5 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 12 .553 16.8 6.2 .6 4.7 .7 2.0 1.3 .73
1.3 Sullinger,Jared Bos 16 .540 6.7 7.9 1.5 5.1 .5 .7 1.2 .49
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.2 Harkless,Maurice Orl 17 .432 6.9 8.1 .7 3.5 1.6 .8 3.1 .70
1.2 Zeller,Tyler Cle 19 .476 12.0 8.8 1.2 4.4 1.8 1.8 .4 .78
1.2 James,Bernard Dal 11 .589 12.9 10.7 .4 4.0 .4 2.2 .7 .83
1.2 Ezeli,Festus GSW 16 .438 6.4 9.0 .2 4.1 1.2 1.9 1.5 .42
1.1 Robinson,Thomas Sac 17 .521 10.9 6.9 .7 5.6 2.5 2.5 .3 .51
0.8 Teletovic,Mirza Brk 9 .433 14.5 7.2 3.7 1.1 2.2 .0 .0 1.13
0.6 Henson,John Mil 13 .433 15.9 5.4 1.3 5.1 1.3 1.3 5.1 .98
0.5 Miller,Darius NOH 15 .545 6.2 2.6 2.4 3.1 2.2 1.2 .3 .20
0.4 Rivers,Austin NOH 30 .380 8.0 2.9 3.4 2.7 1.5 2.5 .2 .10
0.3 English,Kim Det 11 .545 9.9 2.1 2.6 3.2 1.2 1.6 .8 .22
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 2:52 pm
by Mike G
At 1/8 of the season, rookies are suddenly looking at a combined 67 eWins.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
7.6 Lillard,Damian Por 38 .559 19.5 3.4 5.9 1.9 1.5 3.2 .1 1.19
6.6 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 27 .530 16.5 9.7 2.2 3.8 1.5 2.6 2.1 1.43
6.5 Davis,Anthony NOH 28 .555 22.4 11.7 1.1 2.4 1.3 2.0 2.8 1.82
4.2 Drummond,Andre Det 15 .667 16.1 10.9 .9 3.9 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.59
3.9 Barnes,Harrison GSW 28 .555 16.1 6.4 1.6 3.4 .8 2.0 .1 .82
3.4 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 20 .503 14.4 10.4 1.7 6.2 .7 2.4 1.1 .99
2.9 Beal,Bradley Was 27 .473 16.2 3.8 1.8 2.1 1.2 2.3 .6 .63
2.9 Waiters,Dion Cle 29 .484 16.4 3.0 2.3 1.8 1.4 2.3 .3 .58
2.6 Singler,Kyle Det 23 .608 15.7 4.4 .8 4.1 .3 1.1 1.2 .66
2.4 Sullinger,Jared Bos 18 .585 10.5 9.2 1.1 4.8 .5 .9 .9 .80
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
2.0 Roberts,Brian NOH 16 .520 16.8 1.9 6.7 2.1 .6 2.4 .0 .87
2.0 Ezeli,Festus GSW 17 .494 8.1 9.8 .2 4.1 1.0 2.0 1.6 .71
1.9 Leonard,Meyers Por 18 .576 7.5 8.1 .6 4.4 .6 1.0 1.3 .63
1.8 Harkless,Maurice Orl 16 .458 7.9 9.7 1.0 3.0 1.2 .6 2.4 .96
1.7 Crowder,Jae Dal 18 .575 13.6 4.2 2.0 4.0 1.0 1.4 .3 .60
1.7 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 13 .458 7.6 1.7 8.1 3.2 2.6 2.6 .0 .78
1.6 James,Bernard Dal 12 .562 11.7 10.8 .3 3.6 .3 1.9 2.2 .93
1.6 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 12 .518 16.4 6.7 .7 4.2 .5 1.9 1.3 .74
1.3 Robinson,Thomas Sac 17 .519 10.5 7.2 1.1 5.6 2.2 2.5 .2 .55
1.2 Zeller,Tyler Cle 21 .470 9.5 7.7 1.2 4.2 1.3 1.8 .8 .56
A bunch of these guys have gotten more minutes in the last few games.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:50 pm
by Crow
Drummond 4th best here on e82. 3rd best on e484. Might be best on e82 if / when they turn him loose for big minutes. He is validating some of the positive feeling I had for him from pre-season. Terrible defense though. Biggest minute Monroe-Drummond lineup has a ridiculously low 4 minutes for the season. Probably should try it 5-10 minutes per game for awhile and see how it does.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 7:51 pm
by Mike G
Aren't Monroe and Drummond both centers?
They total 49.5 mpg, and nobody else is listed as a C.
At PF, Maxiell and Jerebko total 44 min. Prince may have had to play some PF.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 9:13 pm
by Crow
It is speculated that Monroe might be able to play NBA PF ok or well. Only been tried about 20 minutes this season. it was bad but this is a team that needs to experiment and find things that work better than the current setup. Detroit PFs overall are getting beat on PER, Pts, Rebs according to 82games.
http://www.82games.com/1213/1213DET5.HTM If Drummond moved up to 25 minutes it would mean Monroe would play 23 minutes at C and 12 at PF. You might be able to find the right 12 minutes for that. try it 10-20 games. This season means nothing unless they find something better than what they have right now.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 1:48 pm
by Mike G
The season's games are 15.4% played, and rookies are projecting to 70 eWins -- almost 40 in the East.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
8.2 Lillard,Damian Por 37 .586 21.6 3.3 5.8 1.6 1.3 3.2 .2 1.30
6.8 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 28 .532 16.2 9.5 2.0 4.2 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.43
4.7 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 22 .541 15.0 10.8 1.9 5.5 .5 2.2 1.5 1.24
4.4 Davis,Anthony NOH 28 .555 21.7 11.7 1.0 2.4 1.3 2.0 2.8 1.67
4.2 Drummond,Andre Det 16 .618 15.4 11.2 .9 3.6 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.53
3.9 Shved, Alexey Min 12 .487 15.8 4.3 6.1 2.0 .6 2.5 .9 1.02
3.8 Barnes,Harrison GSW 28 .543 14.9 6.8 1.6 3.4 .8 2.0 .1 .79
3.3 Beal,Bradley Was 28 .466 15.1 4.9 2.6 2.5 1.1 2.5 .8 .69
3.1 Waiters,Dion Cle 31 .478 16.6 3.0 2.8 1.9 1.3 1.9 .2 .59
2.5 Sullinger,Jared Bos 18 .580 10.0 9.6 1.0 5.0 .6 .9 .9 .82
2.4 Crowder,Jae Dal 19 .595 15.1 4.7 2.0 3.6 1.6 1.3 .3 .82
2.3 Ezeli,Festus GSW 17 .459 7.3 10.8 .3 4.4 .8 1.9 2.0 .83
2.2 Harkless,Maurice Orl 17 .482 9.2 9.4 1.3 3.5 1.2 .7 2.1 1.04
2.1 Leonard,Meyers Por 18 .578 7.9 7.5 .6 4.5 .8 .9 1.5 .68
1.9 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 13 .565 18.0 6.6 1.0 4.8 .4 2.3 1.3 .85
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.9 Singler,Kyle Det 24 .575 13.2 4.1 .9 4.0 .2 1.1 1.0 .46
1.8 James,Bernard Dal 12 .571 11.6 10.8 .2 3.4 .5 1.7 2.9 1.12
1.5 Robinson,Thomas Sac 16 .551 11.9 7.8 1.1 5.5 1.9 2.9 .4 .67
1.5 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 13 .435 6.8 2.8 7.4 3.0 2.7 3.2 .0 .72
1.3 Roberts,Brian NOH 16 .507 16.1 1.8 4.7 2.1 .4 2.3 .0 .54
1.3 Taylor,Jeffery Cha 24 .494 10.9 3.9 1.0 2.9 1.4 1.5 .7 .34
1.3 Henson,John Mil 13 .500 16.1 11.8 .4 5.7 .9 1.8 2.2 1.09
1.2 Zeller,Tyler Cle 22 .431 8.7 8.1 1.1 4.6 1.0 1.7 .5 .45
0.8 Rivers,Austin NOH 28 .409 8.3 2.8 3.3 2.2 1.0 2.1 .3 .19
0.6 Green,Draymond GSW 12 .436 6.4 7.8 1.2 5.7 1.4 1.6 .2 .32
0.6 Miller,Darius NOH 13 .568 5.6 3.3 2.2 3.5 1.8 1.0 .3 .29
EDIT: Alexey Shved (Min) had been overlooked until now. Rookies are now projecting to 74 eWins for the full season.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 8:28 pm
by EvanZ
Crow wrote:What is the deal with Barnes and rebounding? Now and in college?
Well, maybe Barnes read this and it lit a fire under his ass. Because he's rebounding like a mad man now.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 4:20 pm
by Crow
I see that he is having a big rebounding game every 2-3 outings. But he has 3 or less rebounds in half the games over the young season and still in 2 of the last 5.
Team rebounding rates not much different with or without him (plus and minus 1% of the 2 sides of the court). Not his primary responsibility but I thought it was worth mentioning as a cue to watch it over time.
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 4:18 pm
by Mike G
With 19% of the season completed.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
6.9 Lillard,Damian Por 37 .542 19.5 3.4 5.6 2.0 1.4 3.2 .2 1.11
5.7 Kidd-Gilchrist,M Cha 27 .511 14.9 9.1 1.9 3.5 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.24
4.8 Valanciunas,Jona Tor 24 .547 14.8 9.6 2.0 4.6 .4 2.2 1.8 1.18
3.8 Shved,Alexey Min 24 .520 16.1 3.6 5.1 2.0 .8 2.6 .6 .93
3.6 Drummond,Andre Det 17 .542 11.8 12.0 .6 3.8 1.6 1.8 2.3 1.25
3.5 Barnes,Harrison GSW 27 .524 14.1 6.7 1.8 3.3 .8 1.9 .1 .76
3.5 Davis,Anthony NOH 28 .555 21.6 11.9 1.0 2.4 1.3 2.0 2.9 1.68
3.4 Singler,Kyle Det 27 .609 14.2 4.8 1.3 4.1 .6 1.0 .8 .76
3.3 Waiters,Dion Cle 32 .468 17.0 2.7 3.4 2.0 1.5 2.2 .2 .62
2.6 Sullinger,Jared Bos 18 .558 10.7 9.4 1.1 5.0 .8 1.0 .7 .83
2.6 Ezeli,Festus GSW 17 .468 7.1 10.4 .3 4.3 1.0 1.9 2.1 .91
2.5 Beal,Bradley Was 28 .461 14.5 4.5 2.1 2.0 1.0 2.4 .7 .54
2.4 Leonard,Meyers Por 19 .582 9.2 7.5 .4 4.3 .8 1.0 1.6 .75
2.4 Prigioni,Pablo NYK 15 .563 8.9 2.8 7.2 2.8 2.1 2.9 .0 1.02
2.3 Harkless,Maurice Orl 18 .504 9.1 9.0 .9 3.1 1.3 1.0 1.8 .96
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
2.0 Crowder,Jae Dal 20 .542 12.3 4.7 2.0 3.8 1.7 1.2 .4 .63
1.8 Taylor,Jeffery Cha 25 .538 12.0 3.5 1.1 3.3 1.8 1.5 .5 .47
1.7 James,Bernard Dal 12 .570 10.6 10.2 .2 3.3 .7 1.5 2.6 1.10
1.6 Roberts,Brian NOH 16 .542 18.1 1.8 4.7 2.1 .5 2.3 .0 .64
1.6 Nicholson,Andrew Orl 14 .584 17.7 5.6 .7 3.9 .3 2.0 .9 .69
1.6 Henson,John Mil 13 .504 16.3 10.7 1.1 5.6 .6 1.7 2.0 1.08
1.5 Robinson,Thomas Sac 16 .511 10.5 8.2 1.3 4.8 1.5 2.7 .8 .63
1.2 Miller,Darius NOH 15 .623 6.2 4.3 2.2 4.1 1.4 .8 .3 .53
1.1 Rivers,Austin NOH 28 .412 8.3 3.1 3.7 2.7 1.0 2.1 .3 .25
1.0 Zeller,Tyler Cle 22 .441 8.1 7.4 1.1 4.9 .8 1.7 .6 .36
Re: 2012-13 Rookies
Posted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:28 pm
by Crow
It appears that no rookie has yet managed to get a positive rating on prior-informed new XRAPM. Waiters the best currently at -1.3? Crowder -1.7, then MKG at -1.9. Anthony Davis at -3.6 (in fewer games). With more time, they have a better chance to do so.