APBRmetrics

Hi everyone,

I'm new here. I've read a decent amount about APBRmetrics but wouldn't call myself an expert. I'm here because I'd like to learn more.

One topic I've been wondering about is what the value of shot creation is. Most fans give it a lot of value and hence care a lot about PPG. I know Berri gives it almost no value and it gets little weight in WP and WS. Is there really almost no value to shot creation? Do stats like WS and WP over-value or accurately value efficient, low volume scorers like Tyson Chandler?

I wouldn't say there is a definitive answer to the value of shot creation yet, but I will say that both Win Shares, and especially Wins Produced heavily overvalue mid-to-low usage players with high efficiency. Coaches and fans appear to overvalue scoring, and misunderstand the three, on the other hand.

A player who can't get a shot has little value as a scorer. Shooting 2/3 or 1/3 is not much different in the final score.

Mike G wrote:A player who can't get a shot has little value as a scorer. Shooting 2/3 or 1/3 is not much different in the final score.

Wouldn't that be a difference of almost 5 wins a season? Seems substantial.....

Yes, an extra 2 ppg is close to 5 wins in 82 games.
A 5 ppg player has more offense than a 3 ppg player in the same minutes. But if he's going 30+ minutes to get 5 pts, that's still a very weak offensive player; even if he is shooting .667.

In 2010, Fabricio Oberto averaged 1.9/3.1 per 36 minutes, for the Wiz. A .625 FG% who can only get 11 mpg on a bad team.
Just 2 players in this century have gotten 2000 minutes in a season, taking fewer than 5 FGA/36
Just 6 have 1000-minute seasons and fewer than 4 FGA/36.
Joel Anthony, Michael Ruffin, Desagana Diop, Ervin Johnson, and Jason Collins aren't 5 wins better than very many players. Reggie Evans' offense ballooned to 4.8 FGA/36 this year (and almost 2000 min.)

Here's a good post on the subject:
Usage versus efficiency.

In the statistical plus/minus models I see, usage^2 or similar forms are used, suggesting that high usage guys have a value that goes beyond simple points. They command defensive attention and make it easier for others to score. That should sound really obvious. We're basically trying to find the value of, say, double teaming.... Since there's a shot clock, you also need someone to eventually take a shot. There are lots of frontcourt players who can't score on their own, and feast on put-backs or switches that lead to them open under the rim. But you cannot rely on them for scoring. Someone has to lead the plays.