APBRmetrics

Posted: **Fri Jun 07, 2013 11:23 am**

Spurs 1, Heat 0
92-88
Pyth wins .64 - .36, eWins .57 - .43

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.24   Tim Duncan     SAS   37  .476   21.7  15.1   3.8   .0   2.0  3.0   3.09
.24   Lebron James   Mia   42  .500   17.3  17.1   8.1   .0   1.8   .0   2.78
.16   Tony Parker    SAS   40  .525   21.1    .0   5.4  1.9    .0   .0   1.97
.08   Chris Bosh     Mia   35  .382   12.1   5.5    .9  3.2   1.1  1.1   1.12
.07   Dwyane Wade    Mia   36  .500   17.7   2.2   1.8  1.0   1.0   .0    .95

.07   Danny Green    SAS   34  .667   13.1   5.8    .0  1.1    .0  1.1    .96
.07   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   36  .455    8.8  11.1   1.0  1.0    .0   .0    .88
.06   Manu Ginobili  SAS   29  .500   16.3    .0   3.3  2.3   1.1   .0    .93
.05   Ray Allen      Mia   24  1.00   20.5   4.2    .0   .0   1.3   .0    .91
.02   Norris Cole    Mia   17  .625   10.3   3.7   6.3   .0    .0   .0    .69

eWins  per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.01   Chris Andersen Mia   13  .583   16.9   6.8    .0   .0   2.2   .0    .35
.00   Joel Anthony   Mia    4  .000     .0  18.4    .0   .0    .0   .0    .31
.00   Shane Battier  Mia    6  .000     .0   4.3   3.7   .0    .0  4.1    .11
.00   Boris Diaw     SAS    9  1.00    8.1   3.2   2.8   .0    .0   .0    .03
-.00  Tiago Splitter SAS   25  .500   10.0   3.1    .0   .0   1.4  1.4   -.09

-.00  Gary Neal      SAS   21  .389    8.4   3.2   1.4   .0    .0   .0   -.10
-.01  Matt Bonner    SAS    7  .000     .0  11.7    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.38
-.01  Udonis Haslem  Mia   17  1.00    4.6   8.6    .0   .0    .0   .0   -.31
-.01  Mike Miller    Mia   19  .833    8.4   6.7    .0   .0   1.6   .0   -.28
-.02  Mario Chalmers Mia   28  .400    9.1   1.4   2.3   .0   1.3   .0   -.40

Shooting: Mia .509 - .495 SA
Rebounds: Mia 46 - 37 SA
Turnovers: SA 4 - Mia 8

Posted: **Fri Jun 07, 2013 10:57 pm**

Game 1: Spurs starting lineup -4; sum of rest of lineups +8.

Posted: **Sat Jun 08, 2013 12:33 pm**

Well, Ginobili is not a starter, and when he's in the game, Parker seems to have more room to operate.

Posted: **Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:09 pm**

Whereas the lineup of T. Duncan | D. Green | K. Leonard | T. Parker | T. Splitter is just not stellar compared to the best in the playoffs as previously noted,

T. Duncan | M. Ginobili | D. Green | K. Leonard | T. Parker
is performing outright horrendous in the playoffs (-31 pts per 100 possessions)
http://bkref.com/tiny/6ahdd

Very modest minutes but I question how much they should be counting on that lineup to lead them to a title. It was very good in 22 minutes of regular season "testing". That is of course not really adequate testing for your #2 playoff lineup. Not by a mile or 10. Pop instead used 568 lineups in the regular season. One over 4 minutes a game. 4 others over 1 minute a game. No way one can really analyze and choose / semi-rationally guess on any lineups based on data when a coach does that with an entire season of opportunity to test lineups. Some coaches adequately test 1-2 lineups. A few test a handful of others to the point were one can make some speculation on good bad or in the middle. Any team could do a better job of strategically testing key lineups if they valued that information. They don't appear to value it (in addition to in the game coaching for the win) given the way they handle the available minutes of a season so scattershot.

Posted: **Mon Jun 10, 2013 11:36 am**

Heat 1, Spurs 1
Avg score: Mia 95.5 - 88.0 SA
Pythagorean wins: 1.50 - .50 , eWins 1.25 - .75

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.43   Lebron James   Mia   41  .486   16.9  12.4   9.4  1.3   1.8  1.3   2.50
.23   Chris Bosh     Mia   33  .463   13.8   8.8   3.4  3.3    .5  1.1   1.66
.22   Tim Duncan     SAS   34  .403   13.7  14.7   2.7   .0   1.6  1.6   1.56
.20   Danny Green    SAS   32  .967   23.4   3.7    .5   .6    .6  1.1   1.47
.15   Ray Allen      Mia   25  .897   26.0   3.0    .0   .0    .7   .0   1.44

.14   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   35  .404    8.1  13.7   1.6  1.1    .5   .0   1.00
.13   Tony Parker    SAS   37  .472   16.9   1.6   5.4  1.0   2.5   .5    .83
.12   Mario Chalmers Mia   32  .551   16.9   3.1   2.7   .6    .6   .0    .88
.11   Dwyane Wade    Mia   33  .435   14.8   2.4   5.5   .5   1.6   .5    .77
.10   Mike Miller    Mia   18  1.17   22.6   4.0   1.1   .9    .9   .0   1.43

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.10   Chris Andersen Mia   14  .727   26.1   8.6    .0  1.1   2.3  1.1   1.79
.02   Norris Cole    Mia   15  .389    6.8   4.6   6.6   .0    .0   .0    .36
.02   Manu Ginobili  SAS   24  .474   13.1   1.6   2.8  2.2   2.9   .0    .17
.01   Matt Bonner    SAS    8  .500    9.1   8.8    .0   .0    .0   .0    .43
.01   Udonis Haslem  Mia   16  .636    8.6   7.0    .0   .0    .0   .0    .14

-.00  Gary Neal      SAS   22  .500   13.1   3.4    .8   .0   2.3   .0   -.02
-.01  Boris Diaw     SAS   10  1.00    5.1   1.7   4.4   .0    .0   .0   -.13
-.03  Tiago Splitter SAS   24  .458    7.4   2.4    .7   .0   1.5  1.5   -.27

Shooting: Mia .541 - .497 SA
Rebounds: Mia 41.0 - 40.5 SA
Turnovers: Mia 7.0 - 10.0 SA

In Game 2, Miami scored 55% of the points.
They gained 82% of the game's eWins and 113% of the Pyth-Wins. With the score tied and 15 minutes to go, both teams had about 34% of a win.

Posted: **Tue Jun 11, 2013 11:03 pm**

Thru game 2 the Spurs starting lineup is -2 in about 20 minutes, at least according to the gameflows. Will wait n see how it looks later in the series.

Substituting Ginobili for Splitter was terrible in game 1 and appears to have not been used in game 2. Reacting to "small sample size"- appropriate or not? The alternatives to that by and large didn't work in game 2.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2013 11:02 am**

Spurs 2, Heat 1
avg score 96.3 - 89.3
Pyth Wins: 2.20 - .80 , eWins: 1.85 - 1.15

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.56   Lebron James   Mia   41  .439   14.6  11.1   6.3   1.5   1.8   .9   2.20
.55   Danny Green    SAS   32  .903   28.7   4.4    .4   1.2    .4  1.5   2.77
.42   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   33  .493   13.0  15.1   1.9   2.2    .7   .0   2.06
.42   Tim Duncan     SAS   32  .418   15.8  16.8   2.4    .0   2.7  1.9   2.10
.37   Chris Bosh     Mia   33  .463   13.4   9.2   3.1   2.6    .8  1.9   1.82

.21   Gary Neal      SAS   23  .603   21.6   4.1   1.9    .0   1.4   .0   1.48
.20   Tony Parker    SAS   33  .471   15.7   2.1   7.2    .7   2.6   .4    .95
.19   Dwyane Wade    Mia   33  .457   15.6   1.5   4.5   1.9   1.9   .7    .92
.16   Mike Miller    Mia   19  1.32   21.6   2.0    .5    .5    .5   .0   1.29
.07   Ray Allen      Mia   23  .909   17.2   2.7    .8    .0   1.4   .0    .50

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.02   Tiago Splitter SAS   24  .475   10.0   4.6   1.0   1.0   1.0  1.0    .14
.01   Chris Andersen Mia   13  .750   15.5   5.0    .0    .7   2.2  1.4    .15
-.01  Cory Joseph    SAS   11  .500    9.3   4.7   4.3   1.7   3.3   .0   -.08
-.01  Matt Bonner    SAS    9  .389    6.2   6.5   1.0    .0    .0   .0   -.10
-.01  Manu Ginobili  SAS   24  .463   11.7   2.0   4.6   1.3   2.7   .0   -.09

-.03  Shane Battier  Mia    6  .188    2.5   6.3   1.2    .0    .0  1.3   -.63
-.03  Boris Diaw     SAS    7  1.00    3.8   1.5   4.1    .0    .0   .0   -.65
-.04  Udonis Haslem  Mia   14  .467    5.2   7.0    .0    .0    .0   .8   -.45
-.05  Norris Cole    Mia   19  .417    7.4   2.6   3.9   1.1   1.6   .5   -.38
-.05  Mario Chalmers Mia   28  .458   11.4   3.0   2.0    .4   2.2   .0   -.30

Shooting: SA .525 - .520 Mia
Rebounds: SA 44.3 - 39.3
Turnovers: Mia 10.0 - 10.7 SA

Lots of garbage time wreaks havoc with the stats.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2013 6:23 pm**

Starting lineup for Spurs had a big game.

The lineup with Ginobili for Splitter lost some ground in light use.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2013 9:15 pm**

Have to see more LBJ post-up game imo...

Posted: **Thu Jun 13, 2013 2:51 am**

Crow wrote:Reacting to "small sample size"- appropriate or not?

Let's go with "not".

Posted: **Thu Jun 13, 2013 1:42 pm**

If coaches don't test lineups to a much higher degree than they usually do then they are left to use these even smaller sample sizes or their "gut" / "experience". Larger sample sizes (hundreds of minutes in the regular season) may still be relatively small and relatively unreliable compared to what is desired but they may be better (when used with all other available information & judgment) than the alternatives. Hence my calls to use available minutes for more disciplined and targeted lineup research.

Posted: **Thu Jun 13, 2013 2:34 pm**

Coaches also react to what the opposing coach does. So yeah, if 2 opposing coaches set out to test their favorite lineups, come hell or high water, then we'll see larger sample sizes.
Since coach A considers himself a genius, and coach B calls himself an innovator, we'll continue to see small lineup samples -- particularly when opposing lineups are part of the considered combination.

When computer programs are allowed to do the coaching, then we'll see longer stretches of lineup Q vs lineup 21.

Posted: **Thu Jun 13, 2013 2:54 pm**

Miami still has 2nd best lineup used over 50 minutes in the playoffs but has not used it in the finals. So I dunno whether to "count it". Spurs' best such lineup has moved up to 9th best from 12th a few games ago. Heat starting lineup has fallen to 11th from top 3. The team whose main lineup finishes highest will get an edge from that. Perhaps decisive. Perhaps it will end up in the top 6 as usually occurs for title winners. Or maybe not.

Lineup matchups can be simulated to huge sample sizes, for what that might be worth. I imagine Bob C. is doing that for Miami. Dunno if the Spurs try anything like that or not.

Posted: **Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:58 am**

Spurs 2, Heat 2
Avg score: SA 95.5 - 94.3 Mia
Pyth wins: 2.17 - 1.83 , eWins 2.09 - 1.91

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.67   Lebron James   Mia   41  .494   18.9  10.8   5.0   1.6   1.6  1.1   1.96
.44   Chris Bosh     Mia   34  .509   15.8  10.4   2.3   2.1    .8  1.9   1.57
.42   Tim Duncan     SAS   32  .477   17.9  14.1   1.9    .0   2.8  1.7   1.58
.39   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   33  .506   13.0  13.4   1.3   1.9    .8   .6   1.43
.39   Dwyane Wade    Mia   35  .500   20.3   2.7   3.8   3.1   1.0   .8   1.36

.37   Danny Green    SAS   33  .825   21.7   4.4   1.3   1.1    .8  1.4   1.36
.29   Tony Parker    SAS   33  .458   15.6   2.8   7.4    .8   2.8   .3   1.05
.21   Gary Neal      SAS   25  .643   21.4   4.4   1.4    .0   1.8   .0   1.00
.14   Mike Miller    Mia   20  1.21   16.9   2.3   1.2    .5    .5   .5    .84
.13   Ray Allen      Mia   25  .786   17.8   2.5   1.2    .0   1.4   .0    .62

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   Chris Andersen Mia   10  .750   19.1   6.6    .0    .9   2.8  1.9    .74
.05   Boris Diaw     SAS    8  .688   13.8   5.0   4.2    .0   2.2   .0    .81
.05   Tiago Splitter SAS   21  .460   10.3   5.4   1.2   1.3   2.2   .9    .30
.05   Matt Bonner    SAS    9  .500   11.9   8.3   1.0    .0    .0   .0    .71
.05   Cory Joseph    SAS   10  .458    9.8   5.9   4.9   1.7   4.3   .0    .58

.03   Manu Ginobili  SAS   24  .441   11.1   2.5   4.2   1.1   2.6   .0    .17
.03   Mario Chalmers Mia   28  .493   11.1   3.7   2.8    .7   3.0   .0    .12
.01   Udonis Haslem  Mia   13  .529    6.6  10.1    .0    .0    .7   .7    .08
.01   Shane Battier  Mia    7  .250    5.5   6.5   2.2    .0    .0  2.5    .13
.01   Norris Cole    Mia   19  .341    6.6   2.4   4.9   1.9   1.9   .5    .04

Shooting: Mia .536 - .529 SA
Rebounds: SA 42.3 - 39.8 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 9.5 - 12.5 SA

Posted: **Mon Jun 17, 2013 11:30 am**

Spurs 3, Heat 2
Avg score 99.2 - 96.2
Pyth wins: 3.00 - 2.00, eWins 2.75 - 2.25

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.82   Lebron James   Mia   41  .489   18.7  10.2   4.8    .9  1.9   1.8   .9   1.89
.65   Tim Duncan     SAS   33  .513   17.7  14.2   1.6   2.2   .2   2.4  2.0   1.85
.55   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   33  .570   13.1  13.1   1.2   2.5  2.3   1.1   .5   1.60
.55   Dwyane Wade    Mia   36  .500   20.7   3.1   4.4   1.2  2.7   1.6  1.0   1.47
.54   Chris Bosh     Mia   35  .537   14.6  10.0   1.9   3.0  1.9    .9  1.7   1.50

.48   Danny Green    SAS   34  .804   19.6   5.0   1.0   3.7   .9   1.1  1.7   1.37
.45   Tony Parker    SAS   34  .519   19.6   2.5   6.4   1.1   .4   2.9   .2   1.28
.23   Ray Allen      Mia   26  .823   17.8   3.1   1.0   2.9   .0   1.0   .0    .84
.21   Manu Ginobili  SAS   26  .519   16.0   2.5   5.2   4.0  1.1   2.7   .0    .78
.11   Gary Neal      SAS   24  .609   15.5   3.9   1.2   1.7   .0   1.7   .0    .44

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.11   Mike Miller    Mia   21  1.12   10.2   3.7   1.1   3.5   .7    .7   .3    .51
.08   Chris Andersen Mia    8  .750   18.6   6.6    .0   8.8   .9   2.6  1.7   1.01
.05   Tiago Splitter SAS   19  .466   10.5   5.9   1.0   2.8  1.2   3.2  1.2    .28
.05   Cory Joseph    SAS    9  .458    9.3   5.3   4.0    .0  1.5   3.8   .0    .57
.05   Boris Diaw     SAS   12  .600    7.9   5.2   3.5   2.3   .0   2.8   .6    .39

.02   Matt Bonner    SAS    7  .500    7.2   7.3    .8   1.8   .9    .0   .0    .23
-.01  Shane Battier  Mia    9  .364    6.0   4.6   2.9   4.3   .0    .0  1.4   -.10
-.01  Mario Chalmers Mia   28  .449   10.0   4.4   2.4   3.5   .8   3.0   .0   -.04
-.02  Udonis Haslem  Mia   12  .474    3.6  10.9    .0   7.8   .0    .6   .6   -.16
-.07  Norris Cole    Mia   16  .326    5.1   2.2   3.9   3.7  1.6   2.0   .4   -.38

Shooting: SA .559 - .535 Mia
Rebounds: SA 41.0 - 38.6
Turnovers: Mia 10.2 - 13.6 SA

Mike Miller has missed just 2 shots in the last 2 games. He's also scoreless in 46 minutes.

APBRmetrics

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