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Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 3:39 pm
by ilardi
Hi All,
Has anyone ever determined the true expected value (either as PPP or TS%) of each shot attempt as a fuction of: (a) location on the floor; (b) shot type (floater, pull-up j, dunk, etc); (c) play type (postup, p&r, cut, etc); and (d) proximity of defender?
It would be nice, for any given shot attempt, to be able to identify a precise expected value (both on a leaguewide basis, and also tailored for each specific player), but I've never seen anything quite like that in the public domain. The closest thing I've seen might be this article (
http://www.82games.com/locations.htm), which tells us, for example, that a shot attempt from the deep post has roughly the same average PPP (1.17) as a corner 3 (1.18), but the former category presumably conflates post-ups with transition dunks, alley-oops, etc.
Thanks in advance for any leads.
Steve Ilardi
P.S. For those of you who don't know, I left the Suns in May to return to a full-time focus on my "day job" as a professor, clinical psychologist, researcher, and writer.
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 4:38 pm
by AcrossTheCourt
So you want a shot that's a function of all those things at once and not separately? Just to clarify.
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 4:49 pm
by ilardi
Yes, I'm interested in finding the expected value - as close as can possibly be estimated - for any given shot attempt. Presumably, the most salient variables are: shot distance, shot type, play type, and proximity of defender(s).
What, for example, is the expected value of a closely contested 3-pointer from the right corner (defender within 2 feet), and how does it compare with the value of, say, a 6-foot floater in traffic from the the lane?
And then how do the aforementioned shot attempts vary in expected value on a player-by-player basis across any given NBA roster?
How does the expected value of a wide-open LeBron 18-footer compare with that of Chalmers 3 from the wing with a close-out defender in his grill? etc., etc.
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 5:12 pm
by AcrossTheCourt
I'd also love that as well, and I'd give a shot at it myself if I had the necessary data. The hard part is finding contested shot information. I can't think of anyone public who has it, unless I'm forgetting someone.
Another pertinent variable is whether or not you're assisted.
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 8:10 pm
by xkonk
I think the only times I've seen data on defender proximity, it's been from people with access to SportsVu data.
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 9:27 pm
by Jacob Frankel
This EvanZ post discusses defensive pressure and play type:
http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2012/10/ ... t-defense/
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Thu Jul 18, 2013 8:13 pm
by ilardi
Thanks, Jacob: that's an interesting step in the right direction.
I suspect the only way to truly get at what I'm interested in is to do intensive coding with SportsVu-type data, which means such expected-value information will only be available - at least in the near term - on a proprietary, in-house basis to motivated NBA teams. It wouldn't surprise me, though, to see some good published data out in the public domain within the next 2-3 years . . .
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 6:30 am
by kpascual
Uh, I don't know how you get the last two data points from public data. The first two you can. Here's what's in my dev database, which has like 2 years of data or something. Shotzones are defined in the 82games style (1-5 = 3pointers, 6-10 long twos, 11-14 paint), all via NBA.com.
Code: Select all
| shot_type | shotzone | made | total | fg | pps |
+---------------------------+----------+-------+-------+--------+--------+
| Alley Oop Dunk | 13 | 1461 | 1606 | 0.9097 | 1.8194 |
| Alley Oop Dunk | 14 | 1733 | 1880 | 0.9218 | 1.8436 |
| Alley Oop Layup | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Alley Oop Layup | 13 | 602 | 885 | 0.6802 | 1.3605 |
| Alley Oop Layup | 14 | 723 | 1053 | 0.6866 | 1.3732 |
| Driving Bank Hook | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Driving Bank Hook | 10 | 3 | 4 | 0.7500 | 1.5000 |
| Driving Bank Hook | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Driving Bank Hook | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0.5000 | 1.0000 |
| Driving Bank Hook | 13 | 4 | 6 | 0.6667 | 1.3333 |
| Driving Bank Hook | 14 | 9 | 17 | 0.5294 | 1.0588 |
| Driving Bank Shot | 6 | 13 | 18 | 0.7222 | 1.4444 |
| Driving Bank Shot | 7 | 5 | 7 | 0.7143 | 1.4286 |
| Driving Bank Shot | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Driving Bank Shot | 10 | 28 | 38 | 0.7368 | 1.4737 |
| Driving Bank Shot | 11 | 14 | 17 | 0.8235 | 1.6471 |
| Driving Bank Shot | 12 | 11 | 19 | 0.5789 | 1.1579 |
| Driving Bank Shot | 13 | 93 | 123 | 0.7561 | 1.5122 |
| Driving Bank Shot | 14 | 174 | 216 | 0.8056 | 1.6111 |
| Driving Dunk | 13 | 1034 | 1180 | 0.8763 | 1.7525 |
| Driving Dunk | 14 | 1286 | 1416 | 0.9082 | 1.8164 |
| Driving Finger Roll Layup | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Driving Finger Roll Layup | 13 | 938 | 1237 | 0.7583 | 1.5166 |
| Driving Finger Roll Layup | 14 | 1237 | 1539 | 0.8038 | 1.6075 |
| Driving Hook Shot | 6 | 9 | 15 | 0.6000 | 1.2000 |
| Driving Hook Shot | 7 | 0 | 4 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Driving Hook Shot | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0.5000 | 1.0000 |
| Driving Hook Shot | 9 | 1 | 7 | 0.1429 | 0.2857 |
| Driving Hook Shot | 10 | 16 | 27 | 0.5926 | 1.1852 |
| Driving Hook Shot | 11 | 53 | 113 | 0.4690 | 0.9381 |
| Driving Hook Shot | 12 | 66 | 140 | 0.4714 | 0.9429 |
| Driving Hook Shot | 13 | 132 | 209 | 0.6316 | 1.2632 |
| Driving Hook Shot | 14 | 169 | 329 | 0.5137 | 1.0274 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 6 | 33 | 91 | 0.3626 | 0.7253 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 7 | 14 | 32 | 0.4375 | 0.8750 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 8 | 4 | 7 | 0.5714 | 1.1429 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 9 | 17 | 53 | 0.3208 | 0.6415 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 10 | 46 | 120 | 0.3833 | 0.7667 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 11 | 168 | 356 | 0.4719 | 0.9438 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 12 | 222 | 465 | 0.4774 | 0.9548 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 13 | 375 | 969 | 0.3870 | 0.7740 |
| Driving Jump Shot | 14 | 479 | 1236 | 0.3875 | 0.7751 |
| Driving Layup | 13 | 9319 | 13646 | 0.6829 | 1.3658 |
| Driving Layup | 14 | 11653 | 16705 | 0.6976 | 1.3952 |
| Driving Reverse Layup | 13 | 881 | 1291 | 0.6824 | 1.3648 |
| Driving Reverse Layup | 14 | 861 | 1310 | 0.6573 | 1.3145 |
| Driving Slam Dunk | 13 | 483 | 500 | 0.9660 | 1.9320 |
| Driving Slam Dunk | 14 | 738 | 749 | 0.9853 | 1.9706 |
| Dunk | 13 | 41 | 85 | 0.4824 | 0.9647 |
| Dunk | 14 | 64 | 92 | 0.6957 | 1.3913 |
| Dunk Shot | 13 | 4290 | 4985 | 0.8606 | 1.7212 |
| Dunk Shot | 14 | 5712 | 6416 | 0.8903 | 1.7805 |
| Fade Away | 1 | 12 | 23 | 0.5217 | 1.5652 |
| Fade Away | 2 | 11 | 36 | 0.3056 | 0.9167 |
| Fade Away | 3 | 7 | 17 | 0.4118 | 1.2353 |
| Fade Away | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0.2424 | 0.7273 |
| Fade Away | 5 | 11 | 29 | 0.3793 | 1.1379 |
| Fade Away | 6 | 794 | 1628 | 0.4877 | 0.9754 |
| Fade Away | 7 | 596 | 1220 | 0.4885 | 0.9770 |
| Fade Away | 8 | 275 | 542 | 0.5074 | 1.0148 |
| Fade Away | 9 | 657 | 1356 | 0.4845 | 0.9690 |
| Fade Away | 10 | 709 | 1426 | 0.4972 | 0.9944 |
| Fade Away | 11 | 451 | 850 | 0.5306 | 1.0612 |
| Fade Away | 12 | 449 | 888 | 0.5056 | 1.0113 |
| Fade Away | 13 | 126 | 246 | 0.5122 | 1.0244 |
| Fade Away | 14 | 95 | 190 | 0.5000 | 1.0000 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1.0000 | 3.0000 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1.0000 | 3.0000 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 6 | 36 | 45 | 0.8000 | 1.6000 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 7 | 22 | 29 | 0.7586 | 1.5172 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 9 | 16 | 19 | 0.8421 | 1.6842 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 10 | 34 | 45 | 0.7556 | 1.5111 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 11 | 5 | 7 | 0.7143 | 1.4286 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 12 | 10 | 11 | 0.9091 | 1.8182 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 13 | 27 | 35 | 0.7714 | 1.5429 |
| Fade Away Bank Shot | 14 | 20 | 24 | 0.8333 | 1.6667 |
| Finger Roll Layup | 11 | 1 | 3 | 0.3333 | 0.6667 |
| Finger Roll Layup | 13 | 522 | 693 | 0.7532 | 1.5065 |
| Finger Roll Layup | 14 | 633 | 836 | 0.7572 | 1.5144 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0.3636 | 1.0909 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0.5000 | 1.5000 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.4000 | 1.2000 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 6 | 230 | 423 | 0.5437 | 1.0875 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 7 | 109 | 202 | 0.5396 | 1.0792 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 8 | 34 | 72 | 0.4722 | 0.9444 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 9 | 147 | 267 | 0.5506 | 1.1011 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 10 | 276 | 506 | 0.5455 | 1.0909 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 11 | 778 | 1408 | 0.5526 | 1.1051 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 12 | 893 | 1598 | 0.5588 | 1.1176 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 13 | 528 | 850 | 0.6212 | 1.2424 |
| Floating Jump Shot | 14 | 688 | 1143 | 0.6019 | 1.2038 |
| Hook Bank | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Hook Bank | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0.8000 | 1.6000 |
| Hook Bank | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Hook Bank | 10 | 23 | 34 | 0.6765 | 1.3529 |
| Hook Bank | 11 | 6 | 8 | 0.7500 | 1.5000 |
| Hook Bank | 12 | 13 | 15 | 0.8667 | 1.7333 |
| Hook Bank | 13 | 42 | 50 | 0.8400 | 1.6800 |
| Hook Bank | 14 | 89 | 116 | 0.7672 | 1.5345 |
| Hook Shot | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 |
| Hook Shot | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Hook Shot | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Hook Shot | 6 | 187 | 458 | 0.4083 | 0.8166 |
| Hook Shot | 7 | 15 | 51 | 0.2941 | 0.5882 |
| Hook Shot | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Hook Shot | 9 | 12 | 34 | 0.3529 | 0.7059 |
| Hook Shot | 10 | 214 | 586 | 0.3652 | 0.7304 |
| Hook Shot | 11 | 444 | 1022 | 0.4344 | 0.8689 |
| Hook Shot | 12 | 400 | 1054 | 0.3795 | 0.7590 |
| Hook Shot | 13 | 1331 | 2732 | 0.4872 | 0.9744 |
| Hook Shot | 14 | 1057 | 2336 | 0.4525 | 0.9050 |
| Jump Bank | 1 | 7 | 16 | 0.4375 | 1.3125 |
| Jump Bank | 2 | 71 | 105 | 0.6762 | 2.0286 |
| Jump Bank | 3 | 38 | 61 | 0.6230 | 1.8689 |
| Jump Bank | 4 | 45 | 98 | 0.4592 | 1.3776 |
| Jump Bank | 5 | 5 | 8 | 0.6250 | 1.8750 |
| Jump Bank | 6 | 365 | 654 | 0.5581 | 1.1162 |
| Jump Bank | 7 | 315 | 578 | 0.5450 | 1.0900 |
| Jump Bank | 8 | 64 | 84 | 0.7619 | 1.5238 |
| Jump Bank | 9 | 239 | 388 | 0.6160 | 1.2320 |
| Jump Bank | 10 | 408 | 715 | 0.5706 | 1.1413 |
| Jump Bank | 11 | 109 | 162 | 0.6728 | 1.3457 |
| Jump Bank | 12 | 106 | 185 | 0.5730 | 1.1459 |
| Jump Bank | 13 | 542 | 829 | 0.6538 | 1.3076 |
| Jump Bank | 14 | 708 | 1073 | 0.6598 | 1.3197 |
| Jump Bank Hook | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Jump Bank Hook | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Jump Bank Hook | 10 | 13 | 15 | 0.8667 | 1.7333 |
| Jump Bank Hook | 11 | 4 | 5 | 0.8000 | 1.6000 |
| Jump Bank Hook | 12 | 7 | 9 | 0.7778 | 1.5556 |
| Jump Bank Hook | 13 | 10 | 11 | 0.9091 | 1.8182 |
| Jump Bank Hook | 14 | 35 | 41 | 0.8537 | 1.7073 |
| Jump Hook | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.0000 | 3.0000 |
| Jump Hook | 6 | 143 | 261 | 0.5479 | 1.0958 |
| Jump Hook | 7 | 27 | 47 | 0.5745 | 1.1489 |
| Jump Hook | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Jump Hook | 9 | 12 | 27 | 0.4444 | 0.8889 |
| Jump Hook | 10 | 186 | 381 | 0.4882 | 0.9764 |
| Jump Hook | 11 | 393 | 692 | 0.5679 | 1.1358 |
| Jump Hook | 12 | 307 | 565 | 0.5434 | 1.0867 |
| Jump Hook | 13 | 550 | 892 | 0.6166 | 1.2332 |
| Jump Hook | 14 | 512 | 860 | 0.5953 | 1.1907 |
| Jump Shot | 1 | 6773 | 17810 | 0.3803 | 1.1409 |
| Jump Shot | 2 | 11600 | 34924 | 0.3321 | 0.9964 |
| Jump Shot | 3 | 5146 | 16318 | 0.3154 | 0.9461 |
| Jump Shot | 4 | 12020 | 35484 | 0.3387 | 1.0162 |
| Jump Shot | 5 | 6412 | 16586 | 0.3866 | 1.1598 |
| Jump Shot | 6 | 6750 | 20034 | 0.3369 | 0.6739 |
| Jump Shot | 7 | 12076 | 33988 | 0.3553 | 0.7106 |
| Jump Shot | 8 | 9839 | 26656 | 0.3691 | 0.7382 |
| Jump Shot | 9 | 12683 | 35392 | 0.3584 | 0.7167 |
| Jump Shot | 10 | 6617 | 19653 | 0.3367 | 0.6734 |
| Jump Shot | 11 | 2691 | 9717 | 0.2769 | 0.5539 |
| Jump Shot | 12 | 2787 | 9913 | 0.2811 | 0.5623 |
| Jump Shot | 13 | 2412 | 12132 | 0.1988 | 0.3976 |
| Jump Shot | 14 | 2576 | 13273 | 0.1941 | 0.3882 |
| Layup | 13 | 107 | 390 | 0.2744 | 0.5487 |
| Layup | 14 | 127 | 410 | 0.3098 | 0.6195 |
| Layup Shot | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Layup Shot | 13 | 15724 | 32430 | 0.4849 | 0.9697 |
| Layup Shot | 14 | 19921 | 37911 | 0.5255 | 1.0509 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0.5000 | 1.5000 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1.0000 | 3.0000 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 6 | 33 | 42 | 0.7857 | 1.5714 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 7 | 30 | 47 | 0.6383 | 1.2766 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 8 | 8 | 9 | 0.8889 | 1.7778 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 9 | 16 | 27 | 0.5926 | 1.1852 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 10 | 26 | 33 | 0.7879 | 1.5758 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 11 | 6 | 11 | 0.5455 | 1.0909 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 12 | 6 | 12 | 0.5000 | 1.0000 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 13 | 10 | 14 | 0.7143 | 1.4286 |
| Pullup Bank Shot | 14 | 12 | 16 | 0.7500 | 1.5000 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 1 | 120 | 160 | 0.7500 | 2.2500 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 2 | 444 | 691 | 0.6425 | 1.9276 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 3 | 310 | 500 | 0.6200 | 1.8600 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 4 | 483 | 741 | 0.6518 | 1.9555 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 5 | 94 | 118 | 0.7966 | 2.3898 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 6 | 529 | 818 | 0.6467 | 1.2934 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 7 | 1686 | 2734 | 0.6167 | 1.2334 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 8 | 1690 | 2628 | 0.6431 | 1.2861 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 9 | 1889 | 3072 | 0.6149 | 1.2298 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 10 | 542 | 844 | 0.6422 | 1.2844 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 11 | 444 | 707 | 0.6280 | 1.2560 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 12 | 450 | 716 | 0.6285 | 1.2570 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 13 | 47 | 77 | 0.6104 | 1.2208 |
| Pullup Jump Shot | 14 | 57 | 87 | 0.6552 | 1.3103 |
| Putback Dunk | 13 | 780 | 872 | 0.8945 | 1.7890 |
| Putback Dunk | 14 | 869 | 964 | 0.9015 | 1.8029 |
| Putback Layup | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Putback Layup | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Putback Layup | 12 | 1 | 1 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Putback Layup | 13 | 1446 | 1798 | 0.8042 | 1.6085 |
| Putback Layup | 14 | 1602 | 1988 | 0.8058 | 1.6117 |
| Putback Reverse Dunk | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0.6667 | 1.3333 |
| Putback Slam Dunk | 13 | 182 | 195 | 0.9333 | 1.8667 |
| Putback Slam Dunk | 14 | 204 | 218 | 0.9358 | 1.8716 |
| Reverse Dunk | 13 | 184 | 209 | 0.8804 | 1.7608 |
| Reverse Dunk | 14 | 151 | 164 | 0.9207 | 1.8415 |
| Reverse Layup | 13 | 2009 | 3069 | 0.6546 | 1.3092 |
| Reverse Layup | 14 | 2309 | 3439 | 0.6714 | 1.3428 |
| Reverse Slam Dunk | 13 | 71 | 74 | 0.9595 | 1.9189 |
| Reverse Slam Dunk | 14 | 61 | 63 | 0.9683 | 1.9365 |
| Running Bank Hook | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Running Bank Hook | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Running Bank Hook | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0.5000 | 1.0000 |
| Running Bank Hook | 12 | 6 | 7 | 0.8571 | 1.7143 |
| Running Bank Hook | 13 | 20 | 23 | 0.8696 | 1.7391 |
| Running Bank Hook | 14 | 23 | 27 | 0.8519 | 1.7037 |
| Running Bank Shot | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0.2727 | 0.8182 |
| Running Bank Shot | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0.3846 | 1.1538 |
| Running Bank Shot | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0.2857 | 0.8571 |
| Running Bank Shot | 6 | 140 | 210 | 0.6667 | 1.3333 |
| Running Bank Shot | 7 | 61 | 80 | 0.7625 | 1.5250 |
| Running Bank Shot | 8 | 8 | 12 | 0.6667 | 1.3333 |
| Running Bank Shot | 9 | 52 | 81 | 0.6420 | 1.2840 |
| Running Bank Shot | 10 | 222 | 306 | 0.7255 | 1.4510 |
| Running Bank Shot | 11 | 71 | 92 | 0.7717 | 1.5435 |
| Running Bank Shot | 12 | 76 | 107 | 0.7103 | 1.4206 |
| Running Bank Shot | 13 | 291 | 393 | 0.7405 | 1.4809 |
| Running Bank Shot | 14 | 452 | 627 | 0.7209 | 1.4418 |
| Running Dunk | 13 | 206 | 222 | 0.9279 | 1.8559 |
| Running Dunk | 14 | 374 | 393 | 0.9517 | 1.9033 |
| Running Finger Roll Layup | 13 | 66 | 80 | 0.8250 | 1.6500 |
| Running Finger Roll Layup | 14 | 101 | 122 | 0.8279 | 1.6557 |
| Running Hook Shot | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Hook Shot | 6 | 21 | 34 | 0.6176 | 1.2353 |
| Running Hook Shot | 7 | 8 | 12 | 0.6667 | 1.3333 |
| Running Hook Shot | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0.6667 | 1.3333 |
| Running Hook Shot | 9 | 5 | 13 | 0.3846 | 0.7692 |
| Running Hook Shot | 10 | 45 | 89 | 0.5056 | 1.0112 |
| Running Hook Shot | 11 | 160 | 299 | 0.5351 | 1.0702 |
| Running Hook Shot | 12 | 244 | 474 | 0.5148 | 1.0295 |
| Running Hook Shot | 13 | 231 | 397 | 0.5819 | 1.1637 |
| Running Hook Shot | 14 | 360 | 640 | 0.5625 | 1.1250 |
| Running Jump | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Jump | 2 | 16 | 104 | 0.1538 | 0.4615 |
| Running Jump | 3 | 7 | 87 | 0.0805 | 0.2414 |
| Running Jump | 4 | 14 | 107 | 0.1308 | 0.3925 |
| Running Jump | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Jump | 6 | 275 | 615 | 0.4472 | 0.8943 |
| Running Jump | 7 | 160 | 342 | 0.4678 | 0.9357 |
| Running Jump | 8 | 69 | 146 | 0.4726 | 0.9452 |
| Running Jump | 9 | 192 | 401 | 0.4788 | 0.9576 |
| Running Jump | 10 | 326 | 759 | 0.4295 | 0.8590 |
| Running Jump | 11 | 841 | 1605 | 0.5240 | 1.0480 |
| Running Jump | 12 | 878 | 1805 | 0.4864 | 0.9729 |
| Running Jump | 13 | 693 | 1549 | 0.4474 | 0.8948 |
| Running Jump | 14 | 822 | 1982 | 0.4147 | 0.8295 |
| Running Jump Shot | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Jump Shot | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Jump Shot | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Jump Shot | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Jump Shot | 11 | 0 | 5 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Jump Shot | 12 | 0 | 6 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Jump Shot | 13 | 0 | 16 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Jump Shot | 14 | 0 | 5 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Layup | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Running Layup | 13 | 849 | 1240 | 0.6847 | 1.3694 |
| Running Layup | 14 | 1204 | 1728 | 0.6968 | 1.3935 |
| Running Reverse Layup | 13 | 86 | 122 | 0.7049 | 1.4098 |
| Running Reverse Layup | 14 | 110 | 151 | 0.7285 | 1.4570 |
| Running Slam Dunk | 13 | 154 | 160 | 0.9625 | 1.9250 |
| Running Slam Dunk | 14 | 237 | 240 | 0.9875 | 1.9750 |
| Running Tip-In | 13 | 21 | 32 | 0.6563 | 1.3125 |
| Running Tip-In | 14 | 32 | 46 | 0.6957 | 1.3913 |
| Slam Dunk Shot | 13 | 2199 | 2252 | 0.9765 | 1.9529 |
| Slam Dunk Shot | 14 | 2572 | 2644 | 0.9728 | 1.9455 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 1 | 64 | 104 | 0.6154 | 1.8462 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 2 | 164 | 253 | 0.6482 | 1.9447 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 3 | 66 | 134 | 0.4925 | 1.4776 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 4 | 145 | 240 | 0.6042 | 1.8125 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 5 | 38 | 60 | 0.6333 | 1.9000 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 6 | 348 | 648 | 0.5370 | 1.0741 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 7 | 514 | 934 | 0.5503 | 1.1006 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 8 | 329 | 602 | 0.5465 | 1.0930 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 9 | 512 | 964 | 0.5311 | 1.0622 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 10 | 313 | 527 | 0.5939 | 1.1879 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 11 | 123 | 203 | 0.6059 | 1.2118 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 12 | 104 | 173 | 0.6012 | 1.2023 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 13 | 13 | 25 | 0.5200 | 1.0400 |
| Step Back Jump Shot | 14 | 13 | 20 | 0.6500 | 1.3000 |
| Tip Shot | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Tip Shot | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Tip Shot | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Tip Shot | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Tip Shot | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Tip Shot | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0.6667 | 1.3333 |
| Tip Shot | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Tip Shot | 13 | 2474 | 4914 | 0.5035 | 1.0069 |
| Tip Shot | 14 | 2789 | 5436 | 0.5131 | 1.0261 |
| Tip-In | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Tip-In | 13 | 61 | 591 | 0.1032 | 0.2064 |
| Tip-In | 14 | 54 | 473 | 0.1142 | 0.2283 |
| Turnaround Bank Hook | 6 | 8 | 9 | 0.8889 | 1.7778 |
| Turnaround Bank Hook | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Turnaround Bank Hook | 10 | 30 | 48 | 0.6250 | 1.2500 |
| Turnaround Bank Hook | 11 | 3 | 5 | 0.6000 | 1.2000 |
| Turnaround Bank Hook | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1.0000 | 2.0000 |
| Turnaround Bank Hook | 13 | 21 | 29 | 0.7241 | 1.4483 |
| Turnaround Bank Hook | 14 | 49 | 59 | 0.8305 | 1.6610 |
| Turnaround Bank Shot | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.0000 | 3.0000 |
| Turnaround Bank Shot | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Turnaround Bank Shot | 6 | 99 | 142 | 0.6972 | 1.3944 |
| Turnaround Bank Shot | 7 | 34 | 45 | 0.7556 | 1.5111 |
| Turnaround Bank Shot | 9 | 13 | 25 | 0.5200 | 1.0400 |
| Turnaround Bank Shot | 10 | 93 | 132 | 0.7045 | 1.4091 |
| Turnaround Bank Shot | 11 | 16 | 23 | 0.6957 | 1.3913 |
| Turnaround Bank Shot | 12 | 18 | 24 | 0.7500 | 1.5000 |
| Turnaround Bank Shot | 13 | 88 | 128 | 0.6875 | 1.3750 |
| Turnaround Bank Shot | 14 | 102 | 133 | 0.7669 | 1.5338 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0.5000 | 1.5000 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.3333 | 1.0000 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 6 | 498 | 1035 | 0.4812 | 0.9623 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 7 | 192 | 393 | 0.4885 | 0.9771 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 8 | 30 | 61 | 0.4918 | 0.9836 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 9 | 142 | 276 | 0.5145 | 1.0290 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 10 | 255 | 511 | 0.4990 | 0.9980 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 11 | 143 | 269 | 0.5316 | 1.0632 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 12 | 174 | 362 | 0.4807 | 0.9613 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 13 | 54 | 105 | 0.5143 | 1.0286 |
| Turnaround Fade Away Shot | 14 | 29 | 55 | 0.5273 | 1.0545 |
| Turnaround Hook Shot | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Turnaround Hook Shot | 6 | 132 | 273 | 0.4835 | 0.9670 |
| Turnaround Hook Shot | 7 | 9 | 33 | 0.2727 | 0.5455 |
| Turnaround Hook Shot | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Turnaround Hook Shot | 9 | 9 | 24 | 0.3750 | 0.7500 |
| Turnaround Hook Shot | 10 | 167 | 365 | 0.4575 | 0.9151 |
| Turnaround Hook Shot | 11 | 176 | 336 | 0.5238 | 1.0476 |
| Turnaround Hook Shot | 12 | 128 | 242 | 0.5289 | 1.0579 |
| Turnaround Hook Shot | 13 | 335 | 567 | 0.5908 | 1.1817 |
| Turnaround Hook Shot | 14 | 274 | 466 | 0.5880 | 1.1760 |
| Turnaround Jump | 1 | 6 | 15 | 0.4000 | 1.2000 |
| Turnaround Jump | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0.2632 | 0.7895 |
| Turnaround Jump | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.2857 | 0.8571 |
| Turnaround Jump | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0.2381 | 0.7143 |
| Turnaround Jump | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 |
| Turnaround Jump | 6 | 894 | 1976 | 0.4524 | 0.9049 |
| Turnaround Jump | 7 | 387 | 889 | 0.4353 | 0.8706 |
| Turnaround Jump | 8 | 81 | 174 | 0.4655 | 0.9310 |
| Turnaround Jump | 9 | 327 | 701 | 0.4665 | 0.9330 |
| Turnaround Jump | 10 | 600 | 1395 | 0.4301 | 0.8602 |
| Turnaround Jump | 11 | 567 | 1126 | 0.5036 | 1.0071 |
| Turnaround Jump | 12 | 542 | 1088 | 0.4982 | 0.9963 |
| Turnaround Jump | 13 | 510 | 1067 | 0.4780 | 0.9560 |
| Turnaround Jump | 14 | 369 | 788 | 0.4683 | 0.9365 |
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2013 4:10 pm
by Crow
Just over 550,000 shots in this database.
352 types of shots. 20 with 5000+ shots, 65 with 1000+ shots. 109 with 500+ shots, 138 with 250+ shots, 180 with 100+ shots, 204 with 50+ shots. 148 with less than 50 shots.
20 with 5000+ shots
Avg raw FG% 40%
Avg PPS .90
65 with 1000+ shots
Avg raw FG% 44%
Avg PPS .96
109 with 500+ shots
Avg raw FG% 43%
Avg PPS .98
138 with 250+ shots
Avg raw FG% 42%
Avg PPS .98
180 with 100+ shots
Avg raw FG% 42%
Avg PPS .98
204 with 50+ shots
Avg raw FG% 42%
Avg PPS .99
148 with less than 50 shots
Avg raw FG% 42%
Avg PPS .99
On average the 20 most common shot types, which make up 75% of all shots taken, yield about .35 points less per shot compared to rest of shots. The shot types players are most accustomed to getting / taking are far less effective than the rarer type shots on average. On average the rare shot type groups all average over 1.20 PPS.
The only shot types in the top 20 on frequency taken that have a PPS of 1.2 or higher are 2 types of driving layups and 1 type of dunk. The majority (12) of types in the top 20 yield less than 1.0 PPS, 9 yield less than .8, 4 less than .6, 2 less than .4 PPS. There are some crappy and really crappy yielding common shot types.
The shot types with 500-5000 shots raise the overall yield of shot types with 500+ shots by about 9% on PPS. The 243 shot types with less than 500 shots barely raise the overall yield by 1% more on PPS. I’d definitely emphasize learning about the 500-5000 shot group of 89 shot types and try to take more of the good ones in that group. About one third of the shot types with 1000-5000 shots have a PPS of 1.2 or higher. They would be good targets to emphasize. Almost 40% of the shot types with 500-1000 shots also have a PPS of 1.2 or higher. They would be decent shot targets too though perhaps harder to get shots.
There are very very few shot types between 100-5000 that get less than .8 PPS. Crappy shots are far more common in the shot type group with over 5000 shots. This is obviously affected by defensive attention to these common shots types but clearly the offense is hurting its cause by not being able to hit these better and / or taking too many of these bad performing shot types. 6 of the 9 most common shots yield less than .75 PPS. They are all long two point shots, in fact every single zone of long 2 point shot. Coaches, players and management have a ton of reason to at least try to change this. A few, a very few teams have moved to substantially reduce long 2 point shots and mid-rangers in general. As of right now almost 25% of all shots taken in the league are crappy yielding long 2 pt shots.
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Sun Jul 28, 2013 7:26 pm
by ilardi
kpascual,
Thanks for this fascinating breakdown.
Do the posted expected values (points per shot) incorporate the free throws that ensue (probabilistically) as a consequence of shot attempts and shot types from these various locations? If not, do you have the capability of computing and posting a similar table of points per shot (by location and shot type) that would reflect the true expected value of such attempts, i.e., one incorporating the value of free throws? Such an adjusted table would, in essence, provide the "True Shooting Percentage" of shots from each location, and would, I believe, be considerably more informative . . .
Best,
Steve
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Mon Jul 29, 2013 11:43 pm
by freeze00up
kpascual,
Fascinating data. How did you assemble this database and do you have it sorted by player?
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2013 2:00 am
by AcrossTheCourt
Here's ElGee's
research on guarded versus unguarded shots (playoffs only.)
It's the entirety of 2010 with a few games from 2011. Maybe you could contact him for more data. Although it's only playoffs (he tracks this manually, I think, so he wouldn't have time for the regular season), perhaps there are enough shots for some significant results.
Re: Expected Value by Shot Location
Posted: Thu Aug 08, 2013 2:52 pm
by kpascual
ilardi wrote:kpascual,
Thanks for this fascinating breakdown.
Do the posted expected values (points per shot) incorporate the free throws that ensue (probabilistically) as a consequence of shot attempts and shot types from these various locations? If not, do you have the capability of computing and posting a similar table of points per shot (by location and shot type) that would reflect the true expected value of such attempts, i.e., one incorporating the value of free throws? Such an adjusted table would, in essence, provide the "True Shooting Percentage" of shots from each location, and would, I believe, be considerably more informative . . .
Best,
Steve
Well, currently the problem is that fouled shot attempts aren't actually counted as shot attempts, so no data is logged (EDIT: *unless the basket is made). In order to do what you say, you have to log the location of each shooting foul, and publicly that's not being done (EDIT: *not being done comprehensively). Your point is well taken though, and the holes in publicly available data have been something I've been thinking about a lot over the last few months.
freeze00up wrote:kpascual,
Fascinating data. How did you assemble this database and do you have it sorted by player?
Scrape data into a database, and yes, they're resolved into player names:
https://github.com/kpascual/nbascrape