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High school girls coach here in a 'C' level league. Im coaching again for the first time in several years and analytics have me re-thinking some of my philosophy.
The league I'm in suffers from 'beehive' mentality - poor floor spacing, and thus constant live-ball TO's and jump ball change of possessions. My hypothesis (prior to us playing a game) is that teams of this caliber don't shoot enough 3's. The longer the possession goes on, the greater liklihood of a TO, coupled with athleticism limitations that make easy 2's incredibly rare, so I believe they should be taking open 3's regularly.

Does this math pass the smell test?

10 percent 3pt fg = 15 percent 2 pt fg

20 percent 3 pt fg = 30 percent 2 pt fg

30 percent 3pt fg = 45 percent 2 pt fg

40 percent 3 pt fg = 60 percent 2 pt fg

The previous year's team/coach made 30 percent of their 2 pt FGs. They made 21 percent of their 3's, shooting only a few per game. With similar returning personnel, I believe they should be shooting many more per game. I think there should always be at least two girls on the floor capable of consistently hitting 20-30 percent of their 3's, and they should be used as floor spacers with the green light. I think this will reduce the beehive clutter that happened for this same team last year.

Thoughts?

Coach, I think you are on the right track. Practice catching the ball and passing it immediately. Awareness of other players on the court is paramount. Try passing 10 times within the shot clock, then 12 times, etc. The players should just get used to constant ball movement.

Work specifically on overhead passes, chest passes, bounce passes. They should all be proficient at every kind. If one player can't pass effectively, you've got a flat tire. OK, you can have one who is 'soft', but not two on the floor at a time. No black holes.

Dribbling should only be done in special circumstances. Never to kill time, when 2 or more passes could be made. Opponents will lose track of who the best dribbler is, and then she can take off for the basket.

When you spread the floor with crisp passing, the defense is chasing your team, and they'll get more tired. That's when you get an open shot.
Because you're avoiding the defense, you'll have fewer turnovers. This generally makes the 3 even more attractive.

There's nothing like game situation to develop confidence. Require X number of passes every possession, perhaps for just the 1st quarter. As players anticipate that they're likely to be shooting a 3, they'll get better at it.
With the floor spread, you can also crash the boards better.

If the team's 2 point % is that close to their 3 %, it seems like shooting a few more threes would be good. One potential downside though, which depends on your view of the league, is that I imagine there are far fewer fouls called on three pointers. If there are lots of fouls called in the games, it might be worth continuing to go for 2s just to keep your girls going to the line and the other team in foul trouble. On the other hand, if the girls are a bit wild and likely to foul on 3s as well, I guess you should definitely go for more 3s.

Math above is correct. FT attempts is a potential downside. Potential upside is that some folks think offensive rebounds are easier to get off of missed 3Pt shots. Alternatively, if you don't want to crash the boards, the simple time it takes for a 3PT shot to get to the rim gives your team plenty of time to get back on defense. See if you can track how well opposing teams score in transition and if getting back on D is really important and weigh that against attempting to get offensive rebounds.

Also, a successful pump fake at the three point line followed by a drive is deadly as it leaves a defender way out of position and the driving offensive player has plenty of time to survey the floor as they drive to the hoop. If your entire team is shooting more threes this might become a move for your best dribbler.

JonCBK wrote:FT attempts is a potential downside. Potential upside is that some folks think offensive rebounds are easier to get off of missed 3Pt shots. Alternatively, if you don't want to crash the boards, the simple time it takes for a 3PT shot to get to the rim gives your team plenty of time to get back on defense. See if you can track how well opposing teams score in transition and if getting back on D is really important and weigh that against attempting to get offensive rebounds.

Yes, however one factor which people have not yet mentioned is that shooting 3-pointers gives a team more offensive rebounding opportunities. A team shooting 30% on 3-pointers will have the same EFG% as a team shooting 45% on 2-pointers. But the 3-point shooting team will have more offensive rebound opportunities, because of the larger number of missed FG attempts. Or to look at the same thing the opposite way, the disadvantage of shooting 2-pointers is every time you hit one, you have to give the ball to the opponent. The team that shoots 3-pointers has to give the ball away less often, while still getting the same points from the initial shot attempt.