APBRmetrics

Posted: **Tue Sep 24, 2013 1:47 pm**

This is the 2nd thread in the series. See also:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8341

UPDATE: Round 6 has been completed, and we've voted for a preliminary Top 134 players. We're now looking for the next 25 or so.

..This round continues 31 earlier nominees plus 19 new ones.
Write-in candidates from the previous round are contained in this one. To ward off possible abuse of this feature, any write-in candidate who does not "make the cut" in 2 consecutive polls will be removed until such time as his name comes up in the originating list (my statistically generated rankings).

You may vote for up to 25 names. If you feel a player not showing on the list should be in the top 160 alltime players/careers, please use the term "write in", followed by the player name(s).

Posted: **Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:19 pm**

Did some guys sneak in from the 250-300 range? Boozer, Marion and Baron Davis...
I know you are down on Willis Reed, but where are the guards like Bing, Greer, Jones, Sharman, Wilkens, Monroe, Maravich, Moncrief, Dumars, Tiny, Thompson, DJ, and at least twenty others over those guys?
Forwards are a little better, but DeBusschere should have been mentioned by now with probably Haywood and Hawkins, as well as Gus. Gallatin too.
I know this is hard, but you don't want to settle with votes, then this becomes politics. The great ones jump off the page. I voted for nineteen from this group. From the selections the nineteenth guy I chose was McGinnis, but I'd select every guy I mentioned and probably a couple dozen more ahead of him.

Posted: **Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:13 pm**

NtA, bear with us here. You like guys from the old days. You don't have to explain that or justify it, it's just clear from your preferences. The players on this list have careers of roughly equal size, either great for a good while or decent for a long while.

The old-timers tended not to play as long, and this has been construed as 'bias' by some. Then how would you give credit for the longevity of Schayes or Hayes, who played (and were good) for longer than their contemporaries?

Players with shorter careers, from any era -- Johnston, Walton, Thompson, McGrady, Penny -- just don't have as great a career as they'd have had with better health. I think those guys would agree.

Sam Jones, DJ, Mark Jackson, and DeBusschere all missed being included this time due to write-in candidates. The poll will only hold 50 at a time.
See the first poll thread for discussion of Carlos Boozer. Yeah, it's basically numbers. Points and rebounds do tend to win games, though.

With the "consensus" 47 we've voted in the first 2 rounds, plus these 50, players by decade of first year in the pros are distributed like this:
'50s - 9 -- Mikan plus 8 others who came around in the '50s.
'60s - 12
'70s - 18
'80s - 19
'90s - 24
'00s - 15
What we see is roughly the number of NBA teams in each decade. In other words, players of every era are just about equally represented in the top 100 candidates.
It's more like the House of Representatives than it is like the Senate, where Wyoming and California get equal representation.

Posted: **Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:22 pm**

I'd like to write in Dennis Rodman.

Obviously his stats don't look great (except rebounds of course), but I just think his intangibles are off the charts. His defense was among the best in the league, esp in his early years - remember he won defensive player of the year. I saw him defend everyone from Jordan to Kareem in his Detroit days, and he could frustrate anyone. Also, I have never seen anyone hustle as much as him at any level of basketball. He just did so many little things to help his teams win and indeed, in his prime his teams were pretty much always super successful.

Posted: **Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:35 pm**

All true, and some of the intangibles and frustrations were not to the benefit of his teams.
He made 2 all-star teams. Only 5 players in this current poll had fewer. Avg is 4.65, about 5 with ABA.
He tended to not play as well in postseasons, nor for as many minutes. Great players generally go longer in the playoffs.
I have a playoff/regular-season performance ratio, and in that metric, he's below 43 of these 50, with a dropoff about twice the norm.
I also see you have him ranked #111 -- but you vote for him to be in the top 75 ?

The Spurs traded Rodman for career benchwarmer Will Perdue.
The Bulls eventually got him to be functional and effective in their system. After they broke up, he was again unemployable.
I loved watching Rodman play. One of my favorite freaks.

Posted: **Wed Sep 25, 2013 10:58 am**

For no reason I can imagine, this group of 50 (players approximately in the 50 to 100 range) consists of:
13 centers
25 forwards
12 guards.

The next-up group of 25 is about equally divided -- thus still heavy on centers.
The first group we elected (top 25) were 8 C (incl. Duncan), 10 F, and 7 G
The 2nd group (#26-47) were 6 C, 7 F, and 9 G

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2013 12:48 am**

Lamar Odom has been in and out of the league and the news of late. I was surprised to see him in the top 100. How does his career size and shape compare with others?

Code: Select all

diff   career per36      Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   Lamar Odom        15.2   9.6   3.9   3.3    .9   2.5   1.0

.06   Brad Miller       14.8   9.3   3.4   3.5    .9   2.0    .9
.10   Jack Sikma        16.1  10.7   3.2   3.9   1.1   2.5   1.0
.12   Sidney Wicks      16.7   8.7   3.3   3.6   1.1   3.0    .8
.13  Christian Laettner 16.2   8.6   3.1   3.8   1.3   2.7    .9
.16   Vlade Divac       14.3   9.9   3.6   3.8   1.3   2.6   1.7

.16   Dave DeBusschere  14.9   9.4   2.8   3.3   1.3   2.3   1.5
.17   Dave Cowens       16.1  11.9   3.5   3.8   1.1   2.2    .9
.18   Billy Owens       13.5   8.3   3.4   3.5   1.1   2.6    .6
.18   Tom Gugliotta     14.5   9.0   3.3   2.9   1.7   2.7    .8
.19   Lionel Simmons    14.2   7.7   3.9   2.9   1.4   2.6   1.0


diff   career equiv.   ePts     eReb   eAst    PF     Stl    TO     Blk
.00   Lamar Odom      15,073    9557   3839   3315    929   2506   1000

.38   Dave Cowens     13,589   10462   3105   3318    997   1965    802
.42   Maurice Lucas   14,885   10081   2643   3905    900   2786    736
.49   Alvan Adams     14,115    7599   4085   3464   1380   2888    887
.49   Vlade Divac     15,189   10471   3830   4043   1407   2742   1803
.51   Antoine Walker  16,088    7715   3484   2751   1182   2708    499

.53   Jerry Lucas     14,305   10858   2843   2607   1238   2406   1693
.57  Dave DeBusschere 13,173    8919   2688   3151   1209   2199   1385
.58   Chris Webber    18,471    8931   3798   2994   1296   2557   1300
.59   Horace Grant    15,122   11287   2865   3255   1291   1460   1292
.61  Billy Cunningham 15,015    6937   3247   3064   1283   3036   1086

Cowens and DeBush are in both lists, for shape and for size.
Medium scorers, strong rebounders who also pass.
Steals, turnovers, and blocks are estimated before 1974

Another multi-purpose forward with no votes:

Code: Select all

diff   career equiv.   ePts    eReb   eAst    PF     Stl    TO    Blk
.00   Bob Dandridge   16,763   5840   3067   3322   1182   2717   552

.26   Cliff Hagan     16,732   4895   3143   3341   1183   2025   607
.42  Billy Cunningham 15,015   6937   3247   3064   1283   3036  1086
.44   Antoine Walker  16,088   7715   3484   2751   1182   2708   499
.45   Mark Aguirre    19,227   5232   2935   2886    763   2530   321
.46   James Worthy    18,795   5655   3018   2328   1223   2159   721

.47   Bernard King    19,438   5174   2745   2983    895   2867   238
.50   Eddie Johnson   18,885   5335   2455   3178    794   2202   197
.51   Jack Twyman     16,957   4899   2128   3345    885   1810   591
.53 Sharif AbdurRahim 15,740   6661   2203   2391    826   2122   613
.55   Juwan Howard    16,790   8233   2838   3638    855   2566   328



diff   career per36    Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Bob Dandridge   18.8   6.5   3.4   3.7   1.3   3.0   .6

.10   Cliff Hagan     20.2   5.7   3.7   3.9   1.5   2.6   .8
.10   Bonzi Wells     17.3   6.9   3.0   3.5   1.7   2.8   .4
.11   Danny Manning   17.9   6.7   3.0   4.2   1.4   2.7  1.1
.14   Campy Russell   17.9   5.6   3.4   3.3   1.3   3.2   .3
.15   Willie Wise     16.4   7.1   2.9   3.5   1.4   2.6   .4

.17   Glenn Robinson  21.1   6.6   2.8   2.7   1.2   3.1   .6
.17   Ed Macauley     20.4   6.4   3.4   2.6   1.4   2.6   .9
.18   Xavier McDaniel 18.0   7.7   2.4   3.6   1.1   2.6   .6
.18   Jack Twyman     20.3   5.7   2.5   3.9   1.2   2.4   .8
.18   Marques Johnson 20.4   7.5   3.6   2.7   1.4   2.5   .8

Several Hall of Famers, Hagan at the top of both lists.
Dandridge's real claim to fame was being an instrumental player on 2 champs of the '70s -- Mil '71 and Was '78. He was also a consistent playoff stepper-upper.

The Enforcer:

Code: Select all

diff   career per36      Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Maurice Lucas     15.8   10.7   2.8   4.1   1.0   3.0   .8

.06   Jack Sikma        16.1   10.7   3.2   3.9   1.1   2.5  1.0
.07   Neal Walk         15.9    9.6   2.8   4.4    .9   2.4   .7
.14   Otis Thorpe       16.1    9.6   2.4   3.7    .8   2.5   .4
.15   Dave Cowens       16.1   11.9   3.5   3.8   1.1   2.2   .9
.15   Tom Owens         15.2    9.0   2.4   4.6    .7   2.5   .8

.16   Sidney Wicks      16.7    8.7   3.3   3.6   1.1   3.0   .8
.16   Truck Robinson    16.0   10.3   1.9   3.3    .8   3.0   .7
.17  Christian Laettner 16.2    8.6   3.1   3.8   1.3   2.7   .9
.18   Cliff Robinson    18.2    9.9   2.2   3.5   1.2   2.9   .8
.19   Lamar Odom        15.2    9.6   3.9   3.3    .9   2.5  1.0


diff   career equiv.  ePts    eReb   eAst    PF    Stl    TO    Blk
.00   Maurice Lucas  14,885  10081   2643   3905   900   2786   736

.35   Dave Cowens    13,589  10462   3105   3318   997   1965   802
.42   Lamar Odom     15,073   9557   3839   3315   929   2506  1000
.42   Bill Laimbeer  14,550  11524   2239   4040   796   1742  1052
.49   Juwan Howard   16,790   8233   2838   3638   855   2566   328
.56 Dave DeBusschere 13,173   8919   2688   3151  1209   2199  1385

.57   Sam Perkins    17,310   9058   2165   3618  1236   1822  1077
.58   Larry Foust    15,105   8422   1866   3672   723   1742  1038
.61   Johnny Kerr    13,112   9359   2284   2834   975   1928  1279
.62   Antoine Walker 16,088   7715   3484   2751  1182   2708   499
.64   Zelmo Beaty    16,249   8636   1502   3736   808   2143  1343

Luke was more of a rebounder, less of a passer than Odom.

Brand was not that long ago an elite player --

Code: Select all

diff   career equiv.   ePts    eReb   eAst    PF    Stl    TO    Blk
.00   Elton Brand     18,388   9592   2223   3023   929   2084   1833

.32   Bob McAdoo      19,283   8480   1982   3044   912   2845   1445
.39   Larry Nance     16,651   8213   2411   2925   934   1819   2184
.41   Sam Perkins     17,310   9058   2165   3618  1236   1822   1077
.42   Rasheed Wallace 20,471   9373   2426   3931  1250   1955   1712
.45   Bob Lanier      19,702   9882   3124   3276  1103   2853   1596

.47   Pau Gasol       19,458   9287   3159   2299   527   2221   1601
.49   Kevin McHale    20,824   8629   1811   3327   410   2234   1969
.53   Shawn Kemp      17,963  10603   1925   4189  1301   3092   1440
.54   Shawn Marion    19,184  10746   2210   2688  1822   1810   1333
.54   Bailey Howell   18,452   7894   1937   4038   947   2264   1170


diff   career per36    Sco    Reb   Ast    PF   Stl    TO   Blk
.00   Elton Brand     19.6   10.2   2.4   3.2   1.0   2.2   1.9

.09   Larry Nance     18.3    9.0   2.7   3.2   1.0   2.0   2.4
.09   Elvin Hayes     18.5   10.9   1.7   3.2   1.0   2.6   2.1
.11   Harry Gallatin  17.7   11.3   2.1   3.4   1.1   2.6   1.8
.11   Willis Reed     18.4   10.8   1.9   3.9   1.0   2.6   1.7
.14   Derrick Coleman 17.9   10.3   2.8   2.9    .8   2.8   1.5

.14   Arvydas Sabonis 18.3   10.8   3.0   3.9   1.1   2.4   1.4
.14   Larry Foust     18.5    9.8   2.2   4.3   1.1   2.6   1.5
.15   Jermaine O'Neal 18.5   10.1   1.8   3.8    .6   2.5   2.4
.16   Al Jefferson    19.5   11.4   1.6   3.2    .9   1.7   1.6
.18   Bob Lanier      20.9   10.5   3.3   3.5   1.2   3.0   1.7

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:43 pm**

Just 4 people have voted. And all in the first 24 hours, I believe. It's really not difficult to do.
Votes total 78 of 100 possible (25 X 4). One WRITE-IN makes 79.
The distribution has flipped to more of a bell curve. In the first round, it was top and bottom heavy.
Right now 23 players have 2 or more votes:

4 - Lanier and 'Nique
3 - Issel, Unseld, Thurmond, McAdoo, Cunningham, Worthy, Jerry Lucas, Vince, Reggie, Parker, and Ray Allen
2 - Gasol, Mourning, Bellamy, McGinnis, Rasheed, English, Dantley, Ginobili, Billups, Gervin
1 - Sikma, Johnston, Mutombo, Ben Wallace, Webber, Kemp, Cummings, Boozer, Nance, Marion, Hagan, Horace Grant, Grant Hill, Heinsohn, RODMAN, Durant, KJ, Gus Williams
0 - Divac, Adams, Carmelo, Odom, Amar'e, Brand, Dandridge, M Lucas, Baron Davis, Cassell

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2013 2:01 pm**

I want to write-in Bill Walton as one of my votes

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2013 3:58 pm**

Okie dokie. Bill is in with 1. He'd have been in the next bunch of 25 in any case, and he will still be. Unless a surge of voters sweeps him in now.
The way it's gone so far with write-ins is: They don't get elected when first nominated, but they're assured of a spot in the next round.

Bill Walton played 517 games, seasons plus playoffs, at 28 mpg. Kevin Durant has 515 games at almost 39 mpg.
Six players in the neighborhood (#75-125-ish) with less than 600-game careers, for comparison:
(Daugherty, Durant, Johnston, Paul, Rondo, Walton)
http://bkref.com/tiny/rRqFN

Posted: **Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:16 am**

How does Vlade Divac not have a single vote yet?
His career equivalent totals are like these:

Code: Select all

diff   career equiv.  ePts     eReb   eAst    PF     Stl    TO    Blk
.00   Vlade Divac    15,189   10471   3830   4043   1407   2742   1803

.49   Lamar Odom     15,073    9557   3839   3315    929   2506   1000
.54   Jerry Lucas    14,305   10858   2843   2607   1238   2406   1693
.56   Jack Sikma     17,901   11880   3546   4310   1260   2819   1131
.60   Chris Webber   18,471    8931   3798   2994   1296   2557   1300
.61   Horace Grant   15,122   11287   2865   3255   1291   1460   1292

.69   Bob Lanier     19,702    9882   3124   3276   1103   2853   1596
.70   Shawn Kemp     17,963   10603   1925   4189   1301   3092   1440
.75   Maurice Lucas  14,885   10081   2643   3905    900   2786    736
.76   Elton Brand    18,388    9592   2223   3023    929   2084   1833
.77   Dave Cowens    13,589   10462   3105   3318    997   1965    802

Note that Vlade's at the top in Ast, Stl, and Blk (nearly); meanwhile, right at the median in Pts and Reb.

In 'standardized' per minute rates:

Code: Select all

diff   career per36      Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO    Blk
.00   Vlade Divac       14.3   9.9   3.6   3.8   1.3   2.6   1.7

.09   Dave DeBusschere  14.9   9.4   2.8   3.3   1.3   2.3   1.5
.11   Gus Johnson       15.1  10.2   2.6   3.7   1.2   2.4   1.6
.13   Jack Coleman      13.1   8.6   3.3   3.4   1.4   2.2   1.3
.15  Sweetwater Clifton 12.9   8.5   3.2   3.9   1.4   2.2   1.3
.16   Lamar Odom        15.2   9.6   3.9   3.3    .9   2.5   1.0

.16   Ray Scott         14.4   9.0   2.5   3.5   1.2   2.2   1.4
.16   Marc Gasol        16.1   9.6   2.9   3.6   1.0   2.0   1.7
.18   Jack Sikma        16.1  10.7   3.2   3.9   1.1   2.5   1.0
.20   Johnny Kerr       14.5   9.7   2.4   2.9   1.2   2.3   1.5
.20   Mychal Thompson   15.0   9.1   2.5   3.5    .9   2.7   1.4

Only Barkley, Divac, and Garnett have career TReb% > 15 AND Ast% > 16, among players with 20,000 minutes; Vlade played 33 k.
Only Kareem, Garnett, and Duncan have more career rebounds, assists, AND blocks.

Posted: **Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:15 pm**

For me, it's an issue of peak. Not sure how others are weighing peak impact and all that, but I prioritize it over longevity. Divac was amazingly healthy; started his career at a young age and played through age 36; and also popped in a lot of minutes/g. All that has considerable value. It also distorts his career bulk numbers, though.

Some could say, wow, he's 49th in total rebounds, 28th in blocks, 65th in steals,.. Surely he deserves some top-75 mention?

But I don't really think that's the case. The best teams he was on were the early 2000 Kings. (Side note: The only year he made the all star team was 2000-01, when individually his numbers were down slightly from his peak) He was at best the 3rd most important player (well behind Webber, and behind Peja... Maybe even Christie etc. deserve mentions above him). Peja is a guy who should draw some top-100 votes in the next round.

Divac was a good player for the pretty good LA teams of the mid 90s. I'd argue Eddie Jones was more important to them, though. (Another guy who is top 100...)

Posted: **Sun Sep 29, 2013 2:02 pm**

A 15 X 15 square is bigger than a 10 X 20 rectangle, and it doesn't require any 'distortion' to believe that. You may like the shape of the rectangle, or it may fit your preference better, but that's just you.

Divac played for 3 teams, 2 of them for several years. Here are the top 3-4 players in minutes during his time there.

Code: Select all

Lakers  1990-96
.player    G     WS   WS/48   PER
Divac     405   43.7   .136   18.1
Worthy    279   25.7   .102   17.1
Threatt   194   26.4   .112   15.7

Hornets 1997-98
.player    G     WS   WS/48   PER
Rice      161   20.1   .145   18.6
Mason     154   20.6   .157   17.6
Divac     145   13.2   .137   18.5

Kings   1999-2004
.player    G     WS   WS/48   PER
Peja      311   50.2   .172   18.9
Divac     454   39.4   .138   17.1
Webber    331   42.0   .155   22.4
Christie  324   31.9   .136   14.7

Others may have been 'more important' for a season or two. Having a reliable offensive/defensive center every year is considered a luxury by most teams.

Here's the same exercise for playoffs, again in order of minutes:

Code: Select all

Lakers  1990-96
.player    G     WS   WS/48   PER
Divac     51    3.5   .107   16.5
Magic     32    5.5   .199   23.0
Scott     36    3.1   .112   13.1
Worthy    32    1.4   .053   15.1

Hornets 1997-98
.player    G     WS   WS/48   PER
Rice      12    1.4   .129   19.7
Mason     12     .7   .065   15.3
Divac     12     .9   .091   17.0

Kings   1999-2004
.player    G     WS   WS/48   PER
Webber    53    4.1   .093   19.6
Peja      52    4.5   .114   15.7
Christie  48    3.5   .094   13.3
Divac     58    4.2   .119   16.6

The Hornets made the playoffs in both years Vlade was there, missing them before and after.
He had the good fortune of playing with some stars at their peak. Rice had his 2 all-NBA years with Vlade, Peja had his 3 allstar seasons, Webber and his 5 all-NBA years ...
Having "better" teammates doesn't make you a lesser player. Some would argue the opposite.

Posted: **Sun Sep 29, 2013 11:08 pm**

Well distort might be a tad strong. But I think if you’re going to create an amount of wins (or total an amount of stats) many will tend to prefer it is done in a shorter time frame. The best rationale would be 10 seasons x 20 added wins adds more to your title probability (minutes being a limited resource) than 20 seasons x 10 added wins.

Divac at his peak (stats wise at least, this is ’95) was no better than the 6th best center (definitely behind Robinson, Shaq, Olajuwon, Ewing and Mourning). My guess is most would have had him behind Mutombo. Daugherty had played his last games by this point but healthy he would have been better. Sabonis put up way better per minute stats the next year.
So Divac was good but it’s hardly surprising that he’s not registering top 75 votes.

I’m more surprised that a guy clearly the best in his decade at the position, a member of the NBA 50, a recognised top defender, Bill Sharman has no votes and only a peripheral mention.

Posted: **Mon Sep 30, 2013 12:40 am**

Well, Bill Sharman ranks way out there at 180 in my list, so unless he's a write-in, he won't be on the ballot for a while.
In Win Shares, regular season, he's 46th among guards, 123rd among all players. In playoffs, 85th.
He ranks 81 in Offensive WS (RS) and 36th in WS/48.

In my version of 'equivalent points', season + playoff, he's #108; amongst Theus, DJ, Jeff Malone, and Byron Scott.
In eAssists, he's 248th -- behind Dantley, Paul Silas, Bill Bradley. There are 75 players with more of both.

His stats indeed suggest that he was the best SG of his era; but that he'd be lucky to crack the top 10 today.
Unless there's something the stats aren't conveying, of course.

EDIT: Originally I wrote Sharman is in the 190 spot, but that would be Guerin. They were about equal in regular seasons, but Sharman had the playoff resume`.

APBRmetrics

Vote players into our alltime top 160, etc.

Vote players into our alltime top 160, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.

Re: Vote players into our alltime top 75, etc.