APBRmetrics

In another thread, we've voted players into the top 150 or so.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8350&start=135
Here we can concurrently select players to the alltime top 50, 100 (and so on), from those we've previously selected into a 'preliminary' ranking.

We've now voted for a top 56, looking to fill out the top 85 or so.
Please vote for up to 25 players.

Since 1978, the median Win Shares for an All-Star player has been 9.6
Here are most player-seasons of 9.6 or more WS:
16 - Kareem, Karl Malone
13 - Wilt, Stockton
12 - Duncan
11 - Kobe, Magic, Jordan, Reggie, Dirk, Oscar, Robinson, Russell, West
10 - Barkley, Hakeem, Shaq, Pettit
9 - Bird, Garnett, LeBron
8 - Dantley, Schayes, Pierce, Howell, Chet Walker
Nobody else with half as many as the Big 2.
http://bkref.com/tiny/b4EDw

Maybe that was cherry-picking by pure chance.
How about number of seasons with 2500 minutes and PER >24 ?

11 - Jordan, Karl Malone
10 - Kareem
9 - Wilt
8 - LeBron, Oscar, Robinson
7 - Barkley, Duncan, Pettit
6 - Bird, Kobe, Dirk, Olajuwon
No one else with half as many as this Big 2.
http://bkref.com/tiny/9WOxR

That one was deliberately cherry-picked. From the hip: # of seasons with PER >20 and WS/48 > .200, 2500+ minutes:
12 - Kareem
11 - Jordan, Karl Malone
9 - Wilt, Stockton
8 - LeBron, Dirk, Magic, Oscar, West
7 - Bird, Duncan, Robinson
6 - Barkley, Pettit, Schayes
Nobody else with half as many as this top 3.

Hokey smoke, Bullwinkle!
Sometimes these searches put an amazing amount of perspective into things.
NBA seasons with 15 Win Shares:
11 - Wilt
10 - Jordan
9 - Karl Malone
8 -
7 -
6 - Oscar, Kareem, LeBron
5 - Robinson
4 - Bird, Magic, Dirk
3 - Mikan, Johnston, Russell, West, Barkley, Garnett
2 - Groza, McAdoo, Moses, Shaq, Duncan, Paul, Durant
1 - Fulks, Feerick, Macauley, Arizin, Bellamy, Frazier, Stockton, Olajuwon, McGrady, Billups, Kobe

0 - Schayes, Pettit, Baylor, Howell, Reed, Walker, Archibald, Lanier, Dantley, McHale, Horace Grant, Penny, Grant Hill, Amar'e, Wade, Marion, Brand, Dwight, Gasol ...
[These players reached 14 WS in a season, but never 15.]

Win Shares favors certain statistical profiles and winning team records. But still, along with Wilt and his 47 mpg, we see all types of player here. They all do at least a couple of things very well. And a very few have been especially transcendent in defining their position.

My list would be Bill Russell, LeBron James, Michael Jordan, KAJ, and then a bit of a dropoff. Could go a lot of ways but went with Timmy.

My votes:
Jordan, Jabbar, Chamberlain, Robertson, James

Haha. Five voters in about as many hours.
Are you guys voting for LeBron because of how great he is at present? How great a career you think he'll end up with? Or by what he's already done?

He's currently 20th in alltime Win Shares, RS. In playoffs, he's 7th.
Where do you get that he's Top 5 already?

I went with Jordan, Russell, KAJ, Magic, and LeBron- not necessarily in that order. I put LeBron in the top 5 because he's reached heights only Jordan ever really did, so even though he's not at the same level of accumulation in stats, his peak is probably top 2 already.

Yes, but LeBron is several MVP's and titles short of Jordan, also.
If Jordan hadn't come out of retirement in '95, they might be in the same stratum, career-wise. But after that, MJ had 3 more alltime-great seasons.

Wasn't Shaq also just about as good, for a time? He then faded kind of quickly.
We aren't trying to guess how much a player might do. Somebody wrote a book ranking the greats, and he had Shaq #1 alltime, because he was surely going to win at least 5 more titles...
Blah.

Also, you don't have to be picking a "team" of players, i.e. C-F-F-G-G
Just pick "players".

Mike G wrote:Haha. Five voters in about as many hours.
Are you guys voting for LeBron because of how great he is at present? How great a career you think he'll end up with? Or by what he's already done?

He's currently 20th in alltime Win Shares, RS. In playoffs, he's 7th.
Where do you get that he's Top 5 already?

Peak value. He's probably the greatest to ever play the game. Hard to keep someone like him off a top 5!

Top 3 was obvious to me: Jordan, Jabbar, Russell. LeBron seemed obvious 4th. The 5th I wasn't sure of. Ended up going with Wilt, but thought about others.

I guess it just took me by surprise. A player in his prime is almost by definition nowhere near the end of his career accomplishments.

Babe Ruth tore up the record books early in his career. Wilt was about the same in basketball. But LeBron is nowhere near doing all that.

If LeBron suddenly cops an attitude, nobody will play with him, he gets fat or can't motivate, and doesn't do anything spectacular again -- would he lose his Top 5 status?
It's a fairly safe bet that none of this happens. But as of 2013, our guesses as to his ultimate career are just guesses. Other great careers have had a swift demise -- Groza, Stokes, Reed, Walton, Bird and Magic ...

If it turns out he has the greatest career ever, then you wouldn't have been wrong (way back in 2013) to say he was headed there. But if he doesn't, then you were wrong.

It's kind of like saying a team that is 50-10 at the end of Feb. is among the greatest teams ever. But then they lose their superstar, stumble to 58-28, and you have to amend your claim.

We have 8 voters, everyone has seen fit to cast the full 5 votes, and there is some clear separation of favorites:
8 Jordan
7 Kareem
6 LeBron
4 Wilt
4 Magic
4 Russell
3 Duncan
2 Shaq
1 Malone
1 Oscar

Surprising to me that Magic leads Bird 4-0 . When they were rivals, I don't recall any coherent argument to suggest Magic was better. They were roughly equal, IMO.

The other player in my top 10 and without any vote is Olajuwon.

Wilt and Russ each have 4 of 8 votes. Most have perhaps voted for one or the other.
Do some of us lean toward 'peak value' for some players and 'team success' for others?

Do we favor Magic over Bird because he was a 'guard', and Bird is a 'big'? Because Magic more resembles a 'modern' player?
They were about the same size, did mostly the same things, and played their positions like no one before or since.

I'm also surprised by the vast Kareem love. Most of y'all probably have to look in the record book to know how good he was, way back in the '70s.

I've got a clear top 4: Lebron, Russell, Jordan, Kareem.

I'll go with Duncan over {Magic, Wilt, Oscar}, due to a small but intentional recency/evolution bias.

Re LeBron: I've had him on track to be, at least in the conversation with, my top 3 (Jordan, Jabbar, Chamberlain). I wasn't sure if I could justify top 5 right now (I considered Shaq, maybe Duncan) but then looked at your charts at the top and he seemed near enough the top 5 in most of those and those above him included some unconventional top 5 picks (Malone, Stockton). The being active helps at the margin especially in conjunction with a spectacular peak. Even if he has one more year at this level and then gets worse year after year you'd have to project him as pretty good, even if he just had one more year and then quit or quit right now this preseason, he's got 4 years of 30+ PER and .298 WS/48 seasons, only Jordan matches that in PER, nobody matches the WS/48 though Jabbar and Jordan each have three (all above the .300 threshold wheras two of LeBron's seasons are just under it). That apex is just about enough to convince me he's top five. I was semi-surprised by how much a consensus pick he was, but that's probably from reading less informed opinions on boards elsewhere.

So "on track" is the same as "there"? Because there's just no way he stops playing suddenly?
People suddenly stop playing all the time.