APBRmetrics

I have thought about this a bit over the last few days and this is the rough early estimate of title chances that I evolved to at this point. Of course it with change will more games / information.

Miami 30%


Indiana 12
San Antonio 12
Los Angeles Clippers 10
Oklahoma City 10
Houston 7.5
Golden State 7.5


Brooklyn Nets 4
Dallas 3
Portland 2
Minnesota 1
Other 1 (including Memphis)

I don't have the time right now to explain in detail. Maybe later as needed.

Anyone else with a full set of estimates or strong lower / higher reactions can add on as they wish.

b-r.com has this -- http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi Figured it might be nice to place this here for future reference: Remember when the Raptors had almost a 1% chance of winning it all?

Mike G wrote:b-r.com has this -- http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi

Code: Select all

.WEST         EAST
SAS  28.5    Mia  21.3
Por   7.2    Ind  17.6
LAC   7.1    Atl   1.3
GSW   3.7    Tor   0.7
Hou   3.1    other 1.3
Min   3.1
OKC   2.3
Den   1.2
other 1.6

Figured it might be nice to place this here for future reference: Remember when the Raptors had almost a 1% chance of winning it all?

All aboard the Raptor wagon!!!

I hadn't checked B-R or ESPN for their odds yet because I wasn't sure they were up and I wanted to try to be independent minded. I like my chance set better than that one. I really don't believe in the Spurs for the playoffs, in spite of the overall current regular season numbers, because of the weakness being shown by Duncan and Ginobili and the extent to which the Spurs strength lies with its deep bench. I should increase the chances of Portland but I just wasn't ready to fully believe the early stats yet. I lean toward reducing OKC's chances but I didn't want to overdo it as they will probably look better later.

Taking the decimal odds from Bovada and converting to probability:

That set is much closer to mine. I did look at a set of bettors odds but from a different source and that data was quite different and not very influential on me.

You could do with dividing those by the total Evan, as they don't sum to 1 (standard for book odds).

v-zero wrote:You could do with dividing those by the total Evan, as they don't sum to 1 (standard for book odds).

I actually did notice that it doesn't sum to 1, but...do I care?

...............Bovada Adjusted relative chance
1   MIA  34.48% 26.2%
2   IND  18.18% 13.8%
3   OKC  12.50% 9.5%
4   SAS  12.50% 9.5%
5   LAC  9.09% 6.9%
6   GSW  6.67% 5.1%
7   HOU  6.67% 5.1%
8   CHI  4.35% 3.3%
9   BKN  3.85% 2.9%
10   MEM 2.94% 2.2%
11   POR  2.94% 2.2%
12   NYK  2.44% 1.9%
13   LAL  1.96% 1.5%
14   MIN  1.96% 1.5%
15   DAL  1.49% 1.1%
16   DEN  1.32% 1.0%
17   ATL  0.99% 0.8%
18   CLE  0.99% 0.8%
19   DET  0.99% 0.8%
20   TOR  0.99% 0.8%
21   NOP  0.66% 0.5%
22   WAS 0.66% 0.5%
23   BOS  0.50% 0.4%
24   PHI  0.50% 0.4%
25   MIL  0.40% 0.3%
26   PHO  0.40% 0.3%
27   CHA  0.33% 0.3%
28   ORL  0.33% 0.3%
29   SAC  0.33% 0.3%
30   UTA  0.20% 0.2%
Total 131.61% 100%

Some details of the performance to date of the top 10 teams:

The average offensive rating is a bit under 109. Defense 102. Indiana plays the lowest pace, Minnesota the highest. Houston’s FT attempt rate is dramatically higher than anyone else’s (almost 30% higher than the 2nd highest) while San Antonio’s is the clear lowest, 20% lower than the average for the group. Minnesota with the worst team eFG%; Miami with a previously noted historic high. San Antonio and Miami with well lower OR% rates than the others, while Portland has the highest. Indiana with the best EFG% allowed, while Miami has the 2nd worst. San Antonio with the lowest foul given rate while the Clippers are the highest and nearly double that of the Spurs.

contenders TO Ratio (per nba.com): HOU (1st) - GSW (4th) - IND (9th) - OKC (11th)

dbabbitt wrote:contenders TO Ratio (per nba.com): HOU (1st) - GSW (4th) - IND (9th) - OKC (11th)

What are you calling "TO Ratio"? I'm going to assume you mean TOV% or TO/100 possessions, in which case, I think you meant to say "Worst TO Ratio", because HOU is 30th in TOV% according to basketball-reference.com.

EvanZ wrote:

dbabbitt wrote:contenders TO Ratio (per nba.com): HOU (1st) - GSW (4th) - IND (9th) - OKC (11th)

What are you calling "TO Ratio"? I'm going to assume you mean TOV% or TO/100 possessions, in which case, I think you meant to say "Worst TO Ratio", because HOU is 30th in TOV% according to basketball-reference.com.

Yes you are correct - TO/100 - (own, not opponents).

Those two figures for Miami and Indiana still look a little low to me. We could fast forward to game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals right now, with that series at 3-2. That's how good those two teams are, and bad the East's depth is relative to the West.

Those Bovada odds are still giving the ECF field about 10% collectively.

This is where I stand now about 10 days after my first marks:

Miami 30


Indiana 16
San Antonio 13
Los Angeles Clippers 9
Oklahoma City 9
Houston 8
Portland 6
Golden State 5

Other 4