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Random Fun Stats
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:55 pm
by siedemnastka
idea is to use this area to share some interesting stuff that doesn't really warrant creating a new topic.
it's also a shameless attempt to kickstart my twitter account with some english-speaking followers.
http://twitter.com/siedemnastkanba
sorry about that. hopefully you'll find some of the stats i'm going to share being good enough excuses.
following chart contains possession* efficiency** stats by month. from seasons 97/98 - 12/13.
obviously numbers from october and may aren't worth that much.
you could also keep in mind two lockout seasons. if you want to.
Month PPP
Oct 1.023
Nov 1.036
Dec 1.046
Jan 1.055
Feb 1.054
Mar 1.061
Apr 1.060
May 1.053
*offensive rebound does not create a new possession
**simple offensive efficiency rating. # of points/ # of offensive possessions. i generally use sth a little more sophisticated for my own purposes
Re: Random Fun Stats
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:56 pm
by siedemnastka
Possession efficiency by minute. Seasons 97/98 - 12/13
http://postimg.org/image/3ptckc13l/full/ - if you prefer an awful chart
1 0.966
2 1.014
3 1.039
4 1.057
5 1.068
6 1.074
7 1.075
8 1.066
9 1.080
10 1.070
11 1.072
12 0.961
13 0.994
14 1.014
15 1.029
16 1.033
17 1.049
18 1.066
19 1.073
20 1.082
21 1.098
22 1.097
23 1.114
24 1.003
25 0.978
26 1.035
27 1.042
28 1.061
29 1.060
30 1.072
31 1.064
32 1.074
33 1.087
34 1.072
35 1.074
36 0.965
37 0.985
38 1.018
39 1.037
40 1.038
41 1.044
42 1.061
43 1.071
44 1.077
45 1.080
46 1.080
47 1.080
48 1.127
49 0.985
50 1.050
51 1.061
52 1.040
53 1.117
last minutes of quarters are dirty for obvious reasons.
i could clean them up, but there's no point, really.
Re: Random Fun Stats
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:57 pm
by siedemnastka
Team-Seasons ordered by simple measure of offensive efficiency.
Seasons 97/98 - 12/13
first worst, then best.
team season PPP_off
DEN 2003 0.919
CHI 1999 0.920
CHI 2000 0.936
GSW 1998 0.947
CHA 2012 0.953
CLE 2003 0.959
CHI 2004 0.963
TOR 2004 0.964
MIA 2003 0.965
CHI 2001 0.968
LAC 2000 0.970
GSW 2001 0.970
GSW 1999 0.971
MEM 2002 0.977
VAN 1999 0.978
...
CLE 2010 1.123
ATL 2010 1.123
MIA 2011 1.124
CLE 2009 1.127
LAL 2009 1.128
DEN 2011 1.128
LAL 2008 1.129
MIA 2013 1.130
UTA 2008 1.134
POR 2009 1.135
PHX 2008 1.136
PHX 2009 1.138
PHX 2005 1.141
PHX 2007 1.143
PHX 2010 1.156
It's worth noting that Steve Nash's teams led the league in offensive efficiency *every single season* from 01/02 to 09/10. Nine seasons straight. This is just ridiculous.
Re: Random Fun Stats
Posted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:57 pm
by siedemnastka
Re: last post. There are naturally things you should be aware of before you make any attempts to compare stats coming from different seasons.
Following table is a nice illustration of some of those issues.
http://postimg.org/image/wg8fkxpcz/ - another awful chart, if you prefer one
Code: Select all
Season PPP (league-wide)
1998 1.045
1999 1.016
2000 1.035
2001 1.027
2002 1.042
2003 1.033
2004 1.025
2005 1.056
2006 1.060
2007 1.064
2008 1.073
2009 1.081
2010 1.077
2011 1.074
2012 1.046
2013 1.059
i'll probably share sth more tomorrow.
Re: Random Fun Stats
Posted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 9:46 am
by Mike G
Code: Select all
Possession efficiency by minute. Seasons 97/98 - 12/13
1 .966 13 .994 25 .978 37 .985 49 .985
2 1.014 14 1.014 26 1.035 38 1.018 50 1.050
3 1.039 15 1.029 27 1.042 39 1.037 51 1.061
4 1.057 16 1.033 28 1.061 40 1.038 52 1.040
5 1.068 17 1.049 29 1.060 41 1.044 53 1.117
6 1.074 18 1.066 30 1.072 42 1.061
7 1.075 19 1.073 31 1.064 43 1.071
8 1.066 20 1.082 32 1.074 44 1.077
9 1.080 21 1.098 33 1.087 45 1.080
10 1.070 22 1.097 34 1.072 46 1.080
11 1.072 23 1.114 35 1.074 47 1.080
12 .961 24 1.003 36 .965 48 1.127
1st 1.045 2nd 1.054 3rd 1.049 4th 1.058 OT 1.051
I notice the first and last minute of every quarter seem to be worst for PPP.
Except for minute 48 -- garbage time? Without that final minute, 4th Q PPP avg 1.052
How do you assign the 'minute' in which a possession has occurred? Is it the beginning of the possession?
If so, then are the weak PPP for minutes 1, 13, 25, and 37 just due to that minute's "expiring" before a possession is finished?
Code: Select all
Month PPP
Oct 1.023
Nov 1.036
Dec 1.046
Jan 1.055
Feb 1.054
Mar 1.061
Apr 1.060
May 1.053
This is great stuff. Maybe you'll do it for playoffs? In which case -- by round, rather than by month?
Re: Random Fun Stats
Posted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 2:52 pm
by Mike G
Rather on the trivial side, some rainy day fun with TReb%, Ast%, Stl%, Blk%
Player-seasons since 1980, at least 1500 minutes, taking each pair of these stats:
No player is higher than these named, in Both stats, for a season.
Code: Select all
Ast and Blk Ast% Blk% AxB Reb and Ast Reb% Ast% RxA
Stockton 1991 57.5 .3 1.7 Rodman 1995 29.7 8.5 25.2
Stockton 1990 57.4 .4 2.3 Rodman 1996 26.6 10.0 26.6
Stockton 1994 53.1 .5 2.7 Rodman 1997 25.6 11.4 29.2
Stockton 1995 52.6 .6 3.2 Camby 2011 24.1 11.7 28.2
A Miller 2002 49.8 .8 4.0 Love 2011 23.6 11.8 27.8
Wall 2013 43.9 1.8 7.9 Camby 2010 22.2 12.3 27.3
LeBron 2010 41.8 2.0 8.4 Love 2010 21.5 12.9 27.7
Wade 2007 40.5 2.5 10.1 Barkley 1998 20.9 16.6 34.7
Wade 2009 40.3 2.8 11.3 Barkley 1987 20.8 19.0 39.5
Wade 2012 27.3 3.1 8.5 Barkley 1997 20.7 20.6 42.6
Garnett 2004 24.4 4.0 9.8 Garnett 2005 20.3 27.1 55.0
Robinson 1994 21.6 5.4 11.7 Hill 1996 14.5 31.4 45.5
Kirilenko 2006 20.5 7.0 14.4 Hill 1997 14.2 36.0 51.1
Camby 2008 12.9 7.3 9.4 Kidd 2007 13.2 41.4 54.6
Camby 2005 12.0 7.4 8.9 Kidd 2008 12.0 44.0 52.8
Camby 2006 10.2 7.5 7.7 Magic 1989 11.7 48.6 56.9
Camby 1998 9.4 7.9 7.4 Magic 1991 10.9 49.3 53.7
Eaton 1983 9.2 9.2 8.5 Paul 2009 8.7 54.5 47.4
Bradley 1996 4.9 9.4 4.6 Stockton 1991 4.5 57.5 25.9
Ibaka 2012 2.5 9.8 2.5
Bol 1989 1.8 10.8 1.9
Blk and Stl Blk% Stl% BxS Stl and Reb Stl% Reb% SxR
Bol 1987 10.8 .6 .65 McMillan 1994 5.8 8.9 5.2
Ibaka 2012 9.8 1.0 .98 Robertson 1986 4.8 10.2 4.9
S Bradley 1996 9.4 1.1 1.03 Robertson 1991 4.7 10.5 4.9
S Bradley 1995 8.5 1.2 1.02 Pippen 1994 4.0 13.3 5.3
Camby 1998 7.9 1.8 1.42 Olajuwon 1989 3.3 19.8 6.5
Camby 2006 7.5 2.2 1.65 Olajuwon 1991 2.9 19.9 5.8
Robinson 1992 7.4 3.1 2.29 B Wallace 2002 2.5 21.0 5.3
Olajuwon 1989 5.5 3.3 1.82 Jer Williams '00 2.3 21.7 5.0
G Wallace 2006 4.7 3.7 1.74 Camby 2010 2.2 22.2 4.9
Jordan 1988 2.4 3.9 .94 Tarpley 1988 2.2 22.6 5.0
Pippen 1995 2.2 4.0 .88 Evans 2013 2.0 26.7 5.3
Artest 2002 1.7 4.5 .77 Rodman 1995 1.0 29.7 3.0
D Bradley 1980 1.3 4.8 .62
McMillan 1994 .8 5.8 .46
Reb and Blk Reb% Blk% R&B Ast and Stl Ast% Stl% AxS
Rodman 1995 29.7 1.0 3.0 Stockton 1991 57.5 3.8 21.9
Rodman 1992 26.2 1.3 3.4 Stockton 1988 54.8 4.0 21.9
Camby 2011 24.1 5.0 12.1 Stockton 1989 54.3 4.1 22.3
B Wallace 2003 23.2 5.9 13.7 Stockton 1987 47.6 4.4 20.9
D Howard 2010 22.0 6.0 13.2 McMillan 1994 27.3 5.8 15.8
Camby 2006 21.0 7.5 15.8
Mutombo 1995 19.9 7.5 14.9
Mutombo 1996 18.6 8.8 16.4
Ibaka 2012 15.9 9.8 15.6
Bol 1989 13.1 10.8 14.1
The 3rd columns don't have a unit, but are just multiples of the other 2 (ignore decimal) for comparison purposes.
Re: Random Fun Stats
Posted: Fri Dec 06, 2013 3:24 pm
by siedemnastka
Mike G wrote:
I notice the first and last minute of every quarter seem to be worst for PPP.
Except for minute 48 -- garbage time?
garbage time probably has some impact (nice subject for a later post), but in this case i'd blame it on teams purposely fouling great free-throw shooters in late-close-game situations.
Mike G wrote:
Without that final minute, 4th Q PPP avg 1.052
just keep in mind that averaging those numbers isn't a perfect strategy due to differences in #s of possessions between various minutes.
Mike G wrote:
How do you assign the 'minute' in which a possession has occurred? Is it the beginning of the possession?
If so, then are the weak PPP for minutes 1, 13, 25, and 37 just due to that minute's "expiring" before a possession is finished?
it's the end of possession. and there's no "minute expiring before a possession is finished" issue
.
way i would explain this 'phenomenon': minutes 1, 13, 25, 37 *always* contain at least one dead-ball possession. and those bring less points than, e.g. transition offense does. they also take more time. so combine it with my methodology, where i group possessions by when they end, and not when they begin, and you'll see that the structure of 'first minute' possessions is different.
also, obviously: teams are never in penalty this early in the period (but same goes for minutes 2 and 3)
Mike G wrote:
This is great stuff. Maybe you'll do it for playoffs? In which case -- by round, rather than by month?
thanks!
regarding the playoffs, i'm not sure how interesting realisation of this particular idea would be.
anyway, i still haven't even downloaded playoff data, even though the whole process would probably take less than 2h. so much undiscovered goods in regular season pbp, still.
Re: Random Fun Stats
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2013 7:50 pm
by siedemnastka
Average FT% on second attempts has been around 4.5 pctg points higher than on the first. Over the last 18 seasons.
(Based only on trips to the line for specifically 2 free throws)
Re: Random Fun Stats
Posted: Sat Dec 14, 2013 8:57 pm
by Crow
New coach in Boston but team shot distribution still doesn't seem driven by expected efficiencies by shot distance. Below average on inside shots, FTAs and three point attempts. Above average on attempts from most mid-range distances. Somewhat above average in hitting some of them but these are still the worst shots. Celtics had far better shot distribution in first season with big 3 that won a title and then continuously drifted away from that to a below average distribution. Analytics certainly wasn't and isn't successfully driving shot selection there and many other places too.
Re: Random Fun Stats
Posted: Tue Jan 21, 2014 1:20 pm
by siedemnastka
statistically, this season, no team in the league has been defending worse off of its misses than Miami Heat.