APBRmetrics

This thread can be used of miscellaneous trade commentary.

My first comment

If teams need another forward or center for their rotation, these names seem reasonable to consider as they have a decent chance of being available at a reasonable price:

Kris Humphries

Tolliver

McRoberts

Kaman

Raduljica

Mbah a Moute

Jeremy Evans

C Singleton


They are generally not that exciting but may well be better than what a lot of teams have for one of the later rotation spots.

There are many other better players that I think it is less likely that the buyer and seller would agree on the trade value.



The Cavs should be open to trading anybody including Irving. Unlikely to unload Clark, Gee or Jack but I'd try if they could fetch anything. Waiters much more likely to go than Irving but his RAPM -s about 2 pts better. They have other decent SGs though. I'd trade Deng now or sign n trade. Almost no way he sticks around or should be kept. Cavs 3+ years away from any contention.

At this point in the season I'd probably play Bennett 20-25 minutes per game for at least 20 games to try to get him to snap out of his weak start and maybe be salvageable as at least a rebounding big for them or someone else.

I don't think the Cats are looking to sell. All reports say they're trying to nail down a playoff berth.

Hump's issue is he's a very large contract. Kaman's issue is he's terrible. Miroslav is very young; LRMaM seems to be a buddy of Kevin Love/a positional need for them. (Plus, he may not be eligible for a trade, given he was involved in the D-Will trade earlier this year) Singleton is still in the league?... Evans is an unknown, largely.

Yeah the Bobcats are more likely to stand pat than trade. I didn't think that thru fully. But it might be possible to entice them with the right piece for McRoberts or Tolliver.

A Humphries trade would be fairly difficult but some contender might show interest and ability (perhaps with help of other teams in the trade) or some mediocre team might feel they can re-sign him at a better price going forward.

Miroslav Raduljica looks better in boxscore measures than RAPm estimate but he does done pretty well so far and might be worth a bit of hopefully thinking. Milwaukee hasn't used him in the last few games and only used him modestly previously. They probably will trade one of their centers.

Singleton has a not bad -1 RAPM estimate. I don't really know him much but for some reason I think he might be worth studying closer.

Evans is also about -1 on RAPM, which isn't bad for mid to deep sub. He might be better than he has had a chance to show so far.

I didn't know Mbah a Moute was close to Love. The raw +/- for the pair on the court together is nothing special (barely above 0). Minnesota probably needs something different. Trading Mbah a Moute is not as earth shaking as other things like trading Rubio and / or Pekovic but you usually have to trade something half-decent to get something half-decent. Mbah a Moute seems likely to continue to be lightly used if he stays.

The trade I'm rooting for from a league wide intrigue standpoint involves the Nets, who are the only team in the league that appears unfazed by the luxury tax.

The Knicks balked at matching Jeremy Lin's contract. The Bulls won't even sign a 13th player for a full season. The Heat amnestied Mike Miller and gave away a trade asset to unload Joel Anthony's contract, which ought to upset the Big 3 who left money on the table (the Heat should've amnestied Anthony and kept Miller, and it might cost them a title). Even wealthy teams and markets are tax averse, which is helping to prevent them from out muscling the league financially.

Back to the Nets: if they are indeed unfazed by the tax, doesn't that provide some opportunities that could shake up the league? They should try to avoid letting expensive contracts expire off their books, and instead be a perpetual 100M team.

If they traded Pierce to Houston for Lin and Asik*, the Rockets would still make the playoffs this year, and would clear enough salary for 2014-2015 to sign a third star. Alongside Beverly and Parsons, that's a championship starting five. This is the rare scenario that would seem attractive enough to actually lure Bosh or Carmelo away from the status quo. But it only happens with this Nets trade, because the Nets are the only franchise that MIGHT be unfazed by Asik and Lin's 15M balloon payments.

From Brooklyn's perspective, they add two league-average or slightly better players in their primes, they avoid losing Pierce for nothing this offseason with no way to improve in the offseason (as an above-the-tax-line team) and perhaps give themselves more cushion to trade away Brook Lopez, or D Will. They should try to use their wealth to become the league's best roster in terms of 1-13 depth in the short term. League average or better players top to bottom. Then in the next 1-2 years look for the right opportunity to consolidate that depth into a tighter concentration of talent.

*this trade could also involve Plumlee, the Nets' 2020 first rounder, or any number of Rockets' picks...