APBRmetrics

Posted: **Sun Apr 27, 2014 6:45 pm**

After 4 games between Indiana and Atlanta, the Hawks have scored 2 more points (372-370).
But at b-r.com, the Pacers have 2.15 WS, and the Hawks have 1.85

Code: Select all

. Hawks  Min    PER   WS/48   WS     . Pacers  Min    PER   WS/48   WS
Carroll  149   11.9   .155   .48      George   159   25.3   .249   .82
Millsap  142   20.6   .159   .47      Hill     139   13.0   .125   .36
Teague   135   19.5   .114   .32    Stephenson 128   12.3   .035   .09
Korver   133   13.6   .129   .36      West     126   16.8   .128   .34
Antic    101     .5  -.059  -.12      Hibbert   97    2.4  -.085  -.17
Williams  77   11.5   .036   .06      Watson    83   15.4   .155   .27
Scott     75    8.3  -.002   .00      Scola     80   18.8   .136   .23
Brand     61   10.6   .121   .15      Mahinmi   72    7.0   .075   .11
Mack      60   13.7   .074   .09      Turner    59   17.0   .148   .18
Martin    15   15.1   .150   .05      Copeland   5   11.9  -.117  -.01
Schrer    7   34.7   .319   .05      Sloan      4  -10.2  -.309  -.03
Muscala    5  -16.3  -.447  -.05      Butler     4  -10.2  -.258  -.02
.                                     Allen      4  -10.2  -.258  -.02

total    960   13.1   .093  1.85       total   960   14.6   .108  2.15

This anomaly was brought to my attention while compiling eWins for the series. I had to really wrangle with the parameters to force the stats to add up 'right'.

shooting: Ind .531 - .522 Atl
rebounds: Ind 44.5 - 38.8 Atl
turnovers: Atl 13.3 - 15.0 Ind

Pacers are giving up another 1.7 TO per game, but they're getting 5.7 more rebounds; and they're shooting better.

My only guess is that Atlanta has an advantage of something like 4 'team rebounds' per game. Not those silly missed 1st FT, but real extra/extended possessions.
Are the Pacers shooting a lot of air balls?

Where does one find total team rebounds that include those non-rebounded caroms awarded to one team or the other?

Posted: **Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:02 pm**

Yahoo box scores have team rebounds. So does this for regular season totals: http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/te ... s-per-game

Posted: **Sun Apr 27, 2014 8:23 pm**

Thanks, Crow.
In the first 2 games, the Pacers had 6 more team rebounds than Atl had.
In the latest 2, the Hawks had 12 more.
That's just 1.5 per game in favor of Atl.

Win Shares differential suggests the Pacers should be winning by about 1 ppg; but they're losing by 0.5
Unassigned team rebounds, not counted by b-r.com, seems to be the biggest part of the difference.

Posted: **Sat May 03, 2014 11:21 am**

In last night's series-ending loss, the Rockets had 10 more individual rebounds (44-34) than the Blazers.
They also had a whopping 8 more "team rebounds" (14-6), according to Yahoo sports.

Were some of these really phantom rebounds -- an "offensive team reb" after someone misses the first of 2 FT, for example?
If there were really 8 more possessions going to Houston, doesn't that make a huge difference in the box score-based stats?

B-R.com says Hou won the TS% (.553 to .540) battle, took 10 more boards, and had 3 more TO. How did they lose the game?
And especially, how did they lose with +8 in team reb?

Por missed 2 FTA, Hou 8, fwiw.

Posted: **Sat May 03, 2014 12:07 pm**

Mike G wrote:In last night's series-ending loss, the Rockets had 10 more individual rebounds (44-34) than the Blazers.
They also had a whopping 8 more "team rebounds" (14-6), according to Yahoo sports.

Were some of these really phantom rebounds -- an "offensive team reb" after someone misses the first of 2 FT, for example?
If there were really 8 more possessions going to Houston, doesn't that make a huge difference in the box score-based stats?

B-R.com says Hou won the TS% (.553 to .540) battle, took 10 more boards, and had 3 more TO. How did they lose the game?
And especially, how did they lose with +8 in team reb?

Por missed 2 FTA, Hou 8, fwiw.

Probably doesn't explain the discrepancy but remember that TS% is just 'guessing' the number of And1s on each side. Team turnovers are another thing that needs to be accounted for

Posted: **Sat May 03, 2014 3:10 pm**

J.E. wrote:Probably doesn't explain the discrepancy but remember that TS% is just 'guessing' the number of And1s on each side. Team turnovers are another thing that needs to be accounted for

Actually, I think it almost completely explains the discrepancy; if you remove the And1 and technical foul attempts, the teams have almost exactly the same TS% (Por: .5539, Hou: .5444) when readjusting to formula to accept that all sets of free-throws are a possession.

Mike G wrote: And especially, how did they lose with +8 in team reb?

As far as this, I 'd note that (with the caveat that I'm not exactly sure what Yahoo is counting as a team rebound) the Rockets had about five team offensive rebounds that were either subsequently followed by the end of a quarter or a 24-second violation.

Posted: **Sat May 03, 2014 9:11 pm**

So the TS% were nearly even, and the 8 "team rebounds" advantage might not be anything. How does a 3-TO advantage more than offset a 10-rebound advantage?

Posted: **Sat May 03, 2014 9:47 pm**

Mike G wrote:How does a 3-TO advantage more than offset a 10-rebound advantage?

Going back to what J.E. mentioned about team turnovers, ESPN has the Rockets with 2 to Portland's 0. Whatever else remains, I think we can chalk up to the 10-FT disparity in favor of the Rockets artificially limiting defensive rebound opportunities for the Blazers.

APBRmetrics

team (not individual) rebounds

team (not individual) rebounds

Re: team (not individual) rebounds

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