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2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 11:23 am
by Mike G
Spurs 1, Heat 0
110 - 95
Pythagorean wins .88 - .12, eWins .69 - .31
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.16 Manu Ginobili SAS 32 .696 21.9 7.1 10.5 3.3 3.3 2.3 1.1 2.43
.16 Tim Duncan SAS 33 .875 34.9 14.4 2.9 2.2 .0 5.8 .0 2.32
.13 LeBron James Mia 33 .625 29.2 8.7 2.6 1.1 3.3 5.0 .0 1.90
.11 Chris Bosh Mia 34 .783 23.8 12.6 .9 2.2 .0 2.4 .0 1.52
.10 Ray Allen Mia 32 .615 17.9 4.2 2.6 4.4 5.5 .0 .0 1.48
.08 Tiago Splitter SAS 23 .824 32.3 8.4 .0 1.6 .0 6.8 3.2 1.68
.07 Danny Green SAS 28 .650 20.1 5.1 1.2 2.6 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.28
.07 Tony Parker SAS 37 .594 20.9 .0 6.9 1.0 1.0 4.1 .0 .90
.05 Patrick Mills SAS 12 .700 23.9 10.9 .0 .0 2.8 .0 .0 1.91
.05 Marco Belinelli SAS 18 .900 25.5 4.9 1.7 1.9 .0 2.0 .0 1.23
eWins per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.05 Dwyane Wade Mia 33 .500 18.6 4.3 1.8 4.5 1.1 2.5 .0 .67
.04 Boris Diaw SAS 33 .200 1.0 13.8 5.6 1.1 .0 1.1 .0 .55
.01 Kawhi Leonard SAS 23 .750 19.3 4.2 .0 4.9 1.6 6.8 .0 .16
-.01 Chris Andersen Mia 18 .500 3.3 7.3 .0 .0 .0 2.1 1.9 -.19
-.01 Norris Cole Mia 29 .250 1.3 4.7 4.7 3.6 2.4 2.7 .0 -.13
-.02 Rashard Lewis Mia 31 .500 10.3 .0 .0 1.2 .0 .0 .0 -.24
-.02 Shane Battier Mia 14 .000 .0 3.1 1.9 2.4 .0 .0 .0 -.59
-.02 Mario Chalmers Mia 17 .500 5.9 2.9 1.7 11.0 6.6 12.4 2.2 -.63
shooting: SA .696 - .569 Mia
rebounds: SA 39 - 29 Mia
turnovers: Mia 18 - 23 SA
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Mon Jun 09, 2014 11:35 am
by Mike G
Spurs 1, Heat 1
avg score: SA 103 - 96.5 Mia
Pyth wins 1.41 - .59, eWins 1.20 - .80
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.37 LeBron James Mia 36 .674 37.0 10.1 3.3 2.1 2.6 4.7 .0 2.52
.27 Tim Duncan SAS 36 .650 24.7 16.1 2.3 2.1 .0 4.3 .5 1.84
.26 Manu Ginobili SAS 30 .625 24.4 5.1 9.9 3.5 2.3 3.0 .6 2.12
.21 Tony Parker SAS 36 .588 23.1 .0 8.8 1.0 1.0 2.6 .0 1.40
.20 Chris Bosh Mia 35 .706 22.0 7.7 1.7 2.1 .5 1.2 .5 1.36
.14 Ray Allen Mia 33 .625 14.0 3.9 2.5 2.7 3.8 .0 .5 1.05
.13 Tiago Splitter SAS 21 .696 18.7 11.1 5.0 3.6 .9 4.6 1.8 1.51
.13 Boris Diaw SAS 33 .321 3.3 13.4 7.2 .5 .5 1.1 .0 .93
.12 Danny Green SAS 23 .710 22.0 4.1 .9 4.1 2.5 .9 .8 1.28
.12 Dwyane Wade Mia 34 .550 18.2 6.7 3.8 2.7 1.1 4.4 .0 .83
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.05 Patrick Mills SAS 14 .625 20.0 4.6 .0 1.2 1.2 .0 .0 .95
.04 Rashard Lewis Mia 29 .600 15.2 .8 .7 2.6 .0 .0 .7 .31
.02 Kawhi Leonard SAS 28 .563 12.9 3.4 2.3 6.1 1.3 2.8 .0 .22
.01 Marco Belinelli SAS 21 .600 11.1 3.1 1.9 .8 .8 2.6 .0 .07
-.01 Norris Cole Mia 20 .167 .7 5.2 6.0 4.3 1.7 2.9 .0 -.13
-.01 Chris Andersen Mia 21 .357 2.8 11.9 .0 2.4 .0 2.8 .8 -.13
-.01 Mario Chalmers Mia 24 .500 5.8 3.8 4.5 6.2 2.3 5.3 .8 -.15
shooting: SA .602 - .588 Mia
rebounds: SA 38.0 - 33.5 Mia
turnovers: Mia 16.5 - 17.0 SA
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 11:35 am
by Mike G
Spurs 2, Heat 1
avg score 105.7 - 95.0
Pyth wins 2.41 - .59, eWins 1.96 - 1.04
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.49 LeBron James Mia 37 .683 32.0 9.2 4.8 3.0 3.3 5.5 .0 2.15
.34 Tim Duncan SAS 34 .646 23.7 15.3 2.7 2.2 .0 4.6 .4 1.63
.31 Manu Ginobili SAS 29 .622 22.0 5.4 8.1 4.0 2.0 2.5 .4 1.71
.29 Tony Parker SAS 35 .585 21.8 .5 8.5 2.1 1.4 2.2 .0 1.33
.27 Danny Green SAS 22 .771 27.8 3.8 2.7 5.0 4.4 1.7 1.1 1.92
.25 Kawhi Leonard SAS 31 .723 23.7 4.2 2.4 5.1 1.6 2.0 .8 1.25
.20 Chris Bosh Mia 35 .763 18.2 6.9 1.2 2.8 .4 .8 .4 .93
.20 Dwyane Wade Mia 34 .598 20.6 6.5 3.3 2.5 1.4 4.7 .0 .91
.18 Boris Diaw SAS 34 .409 5.3 11.7 6.3 1.4 .7 1.5 .3 .85
.17 Tiago Splitter SAS 19 .710 18.3 11.9 4.7 4.4 .6 3.9 1.2 1.42
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.15 Ray Allen Mia 31 .610 13.6 3.9 3.0 3.0 2.6 1.2 .4 .75
.11 Patrick Mills SAS 14 .588 17.1 5.5 4.1 .8 1.6 .0 .0 1.21
.09 Rashard Lewis Mia 30 .704 16.4 2.7 .5 2.9 .0 .0 .4 .47
.02 Chris Andersen Mia 21 .400 3.2 12.4 .0 2.2 .6 1.8 1.1 .16
.02 Marco Belinelli SAS 16 .577 11.6 3.9 1.8 1.4 .7 2.3 .0 .16
-.02 Norris Cole Mia 19 .313 3.8 3.9 5.0 3.5 1.2 3.3 .0 -.20
-.04 Mario Chalmers Mia 23 .357 3.8 4.2 5.7 6.4 1.6 5.3 .5 -.25
shooting: SA .631 - Mia .599
rebounds: SA 35.0 - 31.0 Mia
turnovers: SA 15.7 - 18.0 Mia
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Wed Jun 11, 2014 8:13 pm
by Crow
Top 3s about even. Spurs bench gives the current lead.
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2014 11:37 am
by Mike G
Spurs 3, Heat 1
avg score 106.0 - 92.8
Pyth wins 3.42 - .58, eWins 2.71 - 1.29
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.67 LeBron James Mia 37 .688 33.0 9.4 3.6 2.2 2.5 4.9 .0 2.16
.50 Kawhi Leonard SAS 33 .705 24.9 8.0 2.4 4.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.80
.45 Tim Duncan SAS 33 .606 21.0 15.3 2.4 2.5 .6 3.5 .6 1.63
.34 Danny Green SAS 22 .793 29.8 4.5 1.9 6.1 3.5 2.3 .9 1.89
.31 Tony Parker SAS 35 .578 22.3 .3 6.1 1.8 1.0 2.8 .0 1.07
.29 Manu Ginobili SAS 29 .624 19.8 4.4 6.0 3.9 1.5 3.2 .3 1.19
.26 Boris Diaw SAS 35 .433 6.0 11.6 6.7 1.0 .8 1.6 .3 .91
.23 Chris Bosh Mia 36 .687 16.7 6.4 .8 2.6 .8 1.1 .3 .77
.22 Tiago Splitter SAS 18 .718 19.3 9.7 4.3 3.5 1.0 3.1 1.0 1.43
.20 Dwyane Wade Mia 34 .516 16.5 5.7 3.3 3.0 2.2 4.4 .0 .71
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.19 Patrick Mills SAS 15 .680 25.4 4.6 3.8 1.7 1.2 .6 .0 1.60
.14 Ray Allen Mia 31 .620 13.2 3.7 2.0 3.4 2.0 1.2 .3 .56
.08 Rashard Lewis Mia 27 .645 14.8 2.8 .4 2.8 .0 .4 .7 .36
.05 Matt Bonner SAS 5 .833 13.1 6.5 5.4 3.3 1.7 .0 .0 1.21
.05 Chris Andersen Mia 18 .406 4.5 13.6 .0 4.2 .5 1.6 .9 .33
.03 Marco Belinelli SAS 13 .594 14.3 3.4 1.4 1.3 .7 2.1 .0 .32
-.03 Shane Battier Mia 6 .000 .0 2.0 1.5 4.5 .0 .0 .0 -.70
-.04 Norris Cole Mia 19 .389 4.6 3.0 3.7 3.2 .9 3.0 .0 -.28
-.05 Mario Chalmers Mia 25 .350 3.4 2.9 5.2 5.5 1.5 4.0 .4 -.25
shooting: SA .636 - .582 Mia
rebounds: SA 37.3 - 30.0 Mia
turnovers: SA 15.5 - 17.0 Mia
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2014 3:19 pm
by Bobbofitos
Mike, is it fair to say you have Kawhi as the frontrunner for finals MVP?
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Fri Jun 13, 2014 3:53 pm
by Mike G
You know, I saw that in some commentary and sort of dismissed it -- until I ran the numbers.
The numbers say LeBron is actually contributing the most, and by a good bit. And when is the last time a member of the losing team (presuming the Spurs go on to win) would have been the best player?
In 2004, Det vs LAL, I did not think it possible that anyone but Shaq could be the biggest factor. The Pistons might win by greater depth ... but at the end, Shaq did not have the best numbers; Billups did.
I can see a loser taking mvp, if it goes 7 games. In this one, it's possible Miami goes out in 5, and LeBron is still the star of stars. Then we'd have an almost unprecedented situation.
There are several occasions when arguably the
wrong winner got Finals mvp. As far as deserving losers, I guess Kareem in '74. That one went 7, and he was still snubbed, so I guess that's out.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... inals.html
Kawhi for mvp could certainly be argued given that he's the primary defender on LeBron. Nobody else seems to do much good on that end.
His first 2 games were kind of wasted. But sometimes the award is stolen by whoever had the best last game -- Magic in 1980, Worthy in '88. They didn't have the greatest series, just great closing games.
Even when the title is taken by an ensemble cast like these Spurs, the Finals mvp has played at least 37 mpg (Dumars'89). Since those Bad Boys, just 3 winners have gone under 40 mpg -- Billups, Parker, Pierce. Kawhi is averaging 33 mpg, behind Parker (35) and Diaw (34.5)
It's all new territory.
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Sat Jun 14, 2014 12:33 pm
by Mike G
On 2nd thought:
Game 1 was close most of the way, game 2 was close to the end. In these games, Kawhi Leonard had .01 eWins.
After 2 games, his eW rate was .22 of average.
In the next 2 games, he was dominant, and both were 20-point wins.
Chances are, the Spurs win both games with or without Leonard playing especially well.
Tim Duncan, meanwhile, has been a model of consistency. His game eWins are .16, .11, .07, .11 -- more proficient in the close games.
While Kawhi has been excellent on defense, Duncan is really the anchor for it. Having Tim back there makes it less risky to press your man on the perimeter.
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Sun Jun 15, 2014 2:08 pm
by Mike G
This year's Finalist personnel are about 90% the same as last year's. After 4 games this year, vs last year:
Code: Select all
San Antonio Spurs: 2013 and 2014 Finals
Kawhi Leonard
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
13 36 .576 15.4 12.7 .9 2.3 2.0 1.1 .4 1.63 .123
14 33 .705 24.9 8.0 2.4 4.4 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.80 .100
Tim Duncan
13 36 .543 20.5 13.8 1.4 2.3 .9 2.5 1.4 2.06 .154
14 33 .606 21.0 15.3 2.4 2.5 .6 3.5 .6 1.63 .090
Danny Green
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
13 35 .645 15.5 4.8 .7 3.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 .76 .056
14 22 .793 29.8 4.5 1.9 6.1 3.5 2.3 .9 1.89 .068
Tony Parker
13 35 .464 16.7 2.2 6.8 1.0 1.0 2.4 .1 1.08 .079
14 35 .578 22.3 .3 6.1 1.8 1.0 2.8 .0 1.07 .062
Manu Ginobili
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
13 28 .547 16.3 3.0 5.4 4.1 .9 4.3 .0 .66 .039
14 29 .624 19.8 4.4 6.0 3.9 1.5 3.2 .3 1.19 .057
Boris Diaw
13 14 .600 9.6 6.0 3.5 2.8 .0 1.9 .4 .46 .013
14 35 .433 6.0 11.6 6.7 1.0 .8 1.6 .3 .91 .052
Tiago Splitter
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
13 15 .500 12.0 5.3 1.0 3.7 1.7 3.3 1.0 .27 .009
14 18 .718 19.3 9.7 4.3 3.5 1.0 3.1 1.0 1.43 .043
Patrick Mills
14 15 .680 25.4 4.6 3.8 1.7 1.2 .6 .0 1.60 .039
Matt Bonner
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
13 5 .500 9.2 7.2 .9 1.8 .9 .0 .0 .46 .004
14 5 .833 13.1 6.5 5.4 3.3 1.7 .0 .0 1.21 .010
Marco Belinelli
14 13 .594 14.3 3.4 1.4 1.3 .7 2.1 .0 .32 .007
Cory Joseph
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
13 6 .458 8.9 5.2 4.6 .0 1.5 4.1 .0 .39 .004
14 1 1.00 22.6 .0 .0 6.5 .0 .0 .0 .63 .001
Gary Neal
13 24 .550 13.7 3.9 1.2 2.0 .0 1.7 .0 .26 .013
Miami Heat : 2013 and 2014 Finals
LeBron James
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
13 43 .522 22.7 9.8 5.6 1.2 1.9 2.5 .7 2.34 .207
14 37 .688 33.0 9.4 3.6 2.2 2.5 4.9 .0 2.16 .134
Chris Bosh
13 34 .485 12.7 10.2 2.2 2.9 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.29 .090
14 36 .687 16.7 6.4 .8 2.6 .8 1.1 .3 .77 .046
Dwyane Wade
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
13 36 .496 20.5 4.3 4.5 1.4 2.0 2.5 1.3 1.51 .113
14 34 .516 16.5 5.7 3.3 3.0 2.2 4.4 .0 .71 .040
Ray Allen
13 27 .705 15.6 3.1 1.9 3.2 .2 1.9 .0 .47 .026
14 31 .620 13.2 3.7 2.0 3.4 2.0 1.2 .3 .56 .029
Rashard Lewis
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
14 27 .645 14.8 2.8 .4 2.8 .0 .4 .7 .36 .016
Chris Andersen
13 10 .688 12.2 7.6 .0 7.6 1.9 2.2 1.4 .51 .010
14 18 .406 4.5 13.6 .0 4.2 .5 1.6 .9 .33 .010
Udonis Haslem
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
13 9 .474 4.6 10.5 .0 8.7 .0 .7 .6 -.19 -.003
14 3 .333 3.0 9.9 .0 5.0 .0 .0 .0 -.07 .000
Shane Battier
13 12 .684 15.7 4.5 2.2 3.8 .4 .0 .8 .89 .023
14 6 .000 .0 2.0 1.5 4.5 .0 .0 .0 -.70 -.006
Norris Cole
yr mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480 eW/G
13 12 .326 5.3 2.2 4.8 3.7 1.6 2.4 .4 -.27 -.007
14 19 .389 4.6 3.0 3.7 3.2 .9 3.0 .0 -.28 -.009
Mario Chalmers
13 32 .503 12.8 3.4 2.4 3.0 .8 3.5 .0 .11 .007
14 25 .350 3.4 2.9 5.2 5.5 1.5 4.0 .4 -.25 -.010
Mike Miller
13 22 .841 10.1 4.8 1.4 4.1 1.0 .6 .5 .36 .016
Rashard Lewis has effectively replaced Mike Miller; Mills and Bellinelli have taken Neal and Joseph's minutes.
Parker has 1 rebound in 140 minutes this year.
Chris Anderson has zero assists in 143 minutes, over both Finals.
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2014 7:17 am
by Bobbofitos
Congratulations to the Spurs! Amazing and beautiful team basketball this season. Well deserved.
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2014 9:33 am
by J.E.
Yes. Congratulations to the Spurs, and their entire organization
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2014 10:38 am
by Mike G
I didn't understand all the talk on TV about how the Heat need to rebuild. Yeah, they could use some youth. But basically, DWade was terrible -- by his normal standards, by his usually excellent playoff standard, and relative to his previous 3 series.
Chalmers, same story. He had a history of playoff excellence, until now.
Bosh and Ray shot well but not very often. And Spoelstra seems to be fixated on moving guys in and out of the rotation. If things aren't working, why not bring in Haslem, Battier, Jones, or Beasley? Since when is fewer options supposed to be better?
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2014 10:40 am
by Mike G
Spurs 4, Heat 1
avg score 105.6 - 91.6
Pythagorean wins 4.34 - .66, eWins 3.42 - 1.58
Code: Select all
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.88 LeBron James Mia 38 .668 31.8 9.6 3.7 1.9 1.9 4.1 .4 2.22
.71 Kawhi Leonard SAS 33 .736 27.3 8.8 2.3 4.9 1.8 2.1 1.3 2.03
.56 Tim Duncan SAS 33 .592 20.2 13.9 2.4 2.7 .4 2.8 .9 1.63
.41 Manu Ginobili SAS 29 .643 22.1 4.5 5.8 3.9 1.2 3.0 .2 1.37
.34 Tony Parker SAS 35 .542 20.6 .5 5.3 1.9 .8 2.2 .0 .94
.32 Boris Diaw SAS 35 .419 5.7 11.0 6.6 1.0 .8 1.7 .2 .87
.31 Patrick Mills SAS 15 .729 30.6 3.9 3.8 2.2 .9 .5 .0 1.95
.30 Danny Green SAS 21 .676 21.3 4.5 2.3 5.0 3.6 2.2 .7 1.37
.27 Chris Bosh Mia 36 .619 14.8 6.6 1.0 2.4 .8 .9 .2 .72
.26 Tiago Splitter SAS 17 .721 18.2 9.0 4.6 3.8 1.3 2.7 1.3 1.51
eWins per36 rates tm mpg Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e480
.17 Dwyane Wade Mia 34 .494 14.9 5.2 2.8 3.0 1.7 4.3 .0 .48
.12 Ray Allen Mia 31 .551 11.0 4.4 2.1 3.2 1.8 2.0 .2 .36
.11 Rashard Lewis Mia 23 .652 15.0 3.3 .6 3.2 .0 .4 .7 .46
.07 Chris Andersen Mia 18 .382 3.5 13.4 .0 5.3 .8 1.3 1.1 .35
.06 Marco Belinelli SAS 12 .605 15.3 4.2 1.8 1.7 .6 1.8 .0 .52
.06 Matt Bonner SAS 5 .833 9.5 4.6 6.6 2.4 1.2 .0 .0 .99
-.00 Udonis Haslem Mia 5 .400 4.2 7.2 .0 5.7 .0 .0 1.4 -.01
-.02 Mario Chalmers Mia 23 .431 5.7 2.8 4.5 5.1 1.6 3.5 .3 -.10
-.04 Norris Cole Mia 17 .381 4.8 3.1 3.7 3.2 .8 2.7 .0 -.26
-.06 Shane Battier Mia 7 .000 .0 1.3 1.0 5.0 1.0 1.1 .0 -.84
shooting: SA .624 - .562 Mia
rebounds: SA 37.8 - 32.2 Mia
turnovers: SA 14.0 - 16.0 Mia
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2014 10:54 am
by Mike G
Congrats also to Kawhi Leonard for his Finals mvp award.
Going 33.4 mpg, that's less than any other winner besides Willis Reed (30.0) in 1970.
His 17.8 ppg are 5th lowest all time.
He was 2nd on the team in scoring, rebounds, and steals; led the Spurs in blocks.
His Finals TS% was .753. His raw FG% (.612) edges Shaq 2000 for highest ever.
With 11/19 from the arc, his eFG% of .724 is surely also the best ever.
Re: 2014 Finals -- Heat vs Spurs
Posted: Mon Jun 16, 2014 11:42 am
by J.E.
Mike G wrote:I didn't understand all the talk on TV about how the Heat need to rebuild.
But basically, DWade was terrible
Isn't this essentially your answer? Wade's 32, has had multiple knee injuries/surgeries in his career, only played 54 regular season games this season and his +/- performance this season fell off a cliff