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Fran Frascilla calls him the Brazilian Durant but "two years away from two years away". Dwayne Casey says he "loves" people who say the latter because they don't know ANYTHING about Basketball (not just Cabaclo, Basketball). He should know that the comment originated from a 10 yr NCAA head coach, but it is easier (and common) just to call anyone saying something against an insider's view ignorant. But then Casey talking on Caboclo's future says it is "going to be a marathon". Presumably not a 4 yr one but can you say marathon is ahead and still 2 yrs from 2 yrs folks don't know anything? How many times do you have to watch Cabboclo's 223 minute season in Brazilian league before you qualify to predict his potential and timetable? How much time did Casey and Fraschilla actually spend? Was it closer to 20 or 100 hours for Casey? If it was less than 20 hours...? For Fran, I'd guess it was closer to 5 than 20. Would 5 be enough? Was it a lot less? Would 5 be not that much different a qualification than 20? Did the Raptor total time exceed 200 hrs of study? An hour for every minute played? Enough to know and call everyone else ignorant or still a pretty thin information guess?

Crow wrote:Fran Frascilla calls him the Brazilian Durant but "two years away from two years away". Dwayne Casey says he "loves" people who say the latter because they don't know ANYTHING about Basketball (not just Cabaclo, Basketball). He should know that the comment originated from a 10 yr NCAA head coach, but it is easier (and common) just to call anyone saying something against an insider's view ignorant. But then Casey talking on Caboclo's future says it is "going to be a marathon". Presumably not a 4 yr one but can you say marathon is ahead and still 2 yrs from 2 yrs folks don't know anything? How many times do you have to watch Cabboclo's 223 minute season in Brazilian league before you qualify to predict his potential and timetable? How much time did Casey and Fraschilla actually spend? Was it closer to 20 or 100 hours for Casey? If it was less than 20 hours...? For Fran, I'd guess it was closer to 5 than 20. Would 5 be enough? Was it a lot less? Would 5 be not that much different a qualification than 20? Did the Raptor total time exceed 200 hrs of study? An hour for every minute played? Enough to know and call everyone else ignorant or still a pretty thin information guess?

It was a HUGE, HUGE reach with many actual good basketball PLAYERS still available. I'm guessing they saw some highlights, the gm or owner fell in love with how he LOOKED (super long) in those highlights - & some other gm duped them by making them think the kid was going to be drafted soon so they reached.

I don't mind the pick as a Raptors fan. I don't consider Bruno's floor to be as bad as others do. What are the odds an athletic wing with a 7'7 wingspan and what appears to be a workable 3, is worse than say... an 8th man? Compared to other players around that spot this risk doesn't seem so bad.

The question is whether Bruno actually has more upside than some players picked below him. I'm a little mixed based on information. I'm still a bigger believer in the talent of players like Bogdanovic and Adams personally. As usual with picks slapped with the boom or bust label around draft time, the odds are always higher than the media thinks that a Bruno will be neither a huge home run or a bust, but in the middle range of "solid but not great, worth about the 20th pick", as one of the many players in the NBA who are productive because of physical tools and limited beyond average because of skills

Given the title of this thread, I figured I'd throw in my 2 cents.

The pro-Bruno argument is presented pretty well here: http://patternofbasketball.blogspot.mx/ ... boclo.html

talkingpractice wrote:Given the title of this thread, I figured I'd throw in my 2 cents.

The pro-Bruno argument is presented pretty well here: http://patternofbasketball.blogspot.mx/ ... boclo.html

I don't disagree really with what you say about the kid - and the fact he seemed to make his free throws and some threes in his limited sample size in summer league (horrible A/TO ratio a real concern for now) bodes well for maybe being a solid shooter in time - BUT there's a good chance his overall game won't mature enough to be a + player before his contract with his drafting team expires.

I assume teams that draft players 1st round who have a TON to learn before they'll be actual NBA PLAYERS assume those guys will be making a REAL impact at the VERY latest by year 3 - or why would they bother?

I see Caboclo (I'll add Zach Lavine), and I just can't even imagine he'll be ready by year 3. If I liked a player THAT raw - I'd hope he fell to the 2nd round and I nab him, OR I'd keep tabs on him & try to get him as a free agent a few years later. Why lock up all that guaranteed $$ to "develop" a kid that could easily jump ship before his potential is even close to being actualized?

When was the last time a guy was drafted 1st round who WASN'T extremely productive at their age (at the top of their age group) in college/international ball who actually was worth the guaranteed $$? No name jumps to my head, that's for sure. Most guys that are near NBA stars by year 2/3 were pretty darn good players w/ respect to age before they were drafted.

Statman wrote:I don't disagree really with what you say about the kid.

Just to be clear, it was Jonathan Tjarks who wrote that article, not me.

Statman wrote:

talkingpractice wrote:When was the last time a guy was drafted 1st round who WASN'T extremely productive at their age (at the top of their age group) in college/international ball who actually was worth the guaranteed $$? No name jumps to my head, that's for sure. Most guys that are near NBA stars by year 2/3 were pretty darn good players w/ respect to age before they were drafted.

Batum is the first name that jumps to mind for me. I vaguely remember Hollinger's draft projection models being very low on him, though I'm not sure exactly what his stat line looked like overseas and how that compared to guys in his age range.

To me, the biggest risk with a guy like Caboclo is that even if he does break out, it probably happens towards the end of his rookie deal, and at that point you either lose them or have to resign them to a large deal.

repole wrote: Batum is the first name that jumps to mind for me. I vaguely remember Hollinger's draft projection models being very low on him, though I'm not sure exactly what his stat line looked like overseas and how that compared to guys in his age range.

To me, the biggest risk with a guy like Caboclo is that even if he does break out, it probably happens towards the end of his rookie deal, and at that point you either lose them or have to resign them to a large deal.

Being pretty new to these parts, I'm curious as to whether Batum is considered a highly valuable player. According to J.E.'s RAPM, Batum's 2014 season ranked him in the top-30 percentile, 2013 top-20 percentile, 2012 top-40 percentile. I suppose that's wavering on the cusp of "starter" level (gauged on top 150 players out of ~450 total each year). For his career, it looks like he's still registering slightly negative RAPM value. I see that he's rated much higher on SPM though, which may illustrate some disconnect.

Kinda interested because like repole says, if he does break out, he'll probably do so at the end of his rookie contract, forcing the Raptors to offer a large deal in order to retain him, like Portland and Batum. Batum's salary seems... high, for his current production. For instance, a guy like Kyle Lowry who grades highly on RAPM is getting a similar annual salary, though Lowry signed it recently and at a different age. Since Batum's 2012 signing and Lowry's 2014 signing, salary cap rose $5mm with more on the horizon, which makes Batum's contract seem even more substantial. Maybe that's due to the age difference and/or positionality, Batum 23 at time of signing and Lowry 28 at time of signing.

How many minutes will a playoff bound team give Caboclo next season? 500? 250?

Batum's a fascinatingly difficult case, especially because his quality of play may've stagnated or even diminished this past year.

His re-signing wasn't just Portland getting stars in their eyes over him; Minnesota tried to sign him and Portland had to match their offer so there was at least one other team that thought he was valuable.

At the time I thought it was a good signing by BOTH Minnesota and Portland. Batum to me is a player with early Rodman-esque defensive skills, who is the Blazers' best 1-on-1 defender to put on any player ranging from point guards to power forwards. When Tony Parker was shredding the Blazers' defense in the playoffs, what finally slowed him down (and got the Blazers their one win against the Spurs) was having Batum guard Parker right from the opening tip.

But Batum is not a 1-dimensional Rodman or Bruce Bowen; he's an excellent passer and playmaker, and a three-point threat, and an excellent finisher.

And he was getting better each season that he played in the NBA.

But.

His contributions to the offense this season were not as large nor as consistent as one would hope, looking at his career trajectory of continued improvement in the past. Even 2013 was in some ways a year of non-improvement offensively, although his assist percentage skyrocketed that year and he became a solid part of the Blazers offense. But although a solid offensive player, he's not someone like a Lillard or Aldridge that you build your offense around.

Some of that diminishment might be attributed to Lillard's and Aldridge's continued improvement (and Wes Matthews'), leaving less opportunity for Batum to contribute offensively. But still, I was expecting to see him become more of an offensive force this season, especially after his experience being a key player for a very good French national team.

And his defense? When I last looked, the public RAPM numbers rated him as a below average defender for 2014. So we've got a classic case of conflicting empirical evidence. Should I believe my lyin' eyes, or RAPM with its high standard errors? Or neither?

So I really don't know what to make of Batum. There is no question that he has the potential to be an all-star. At the beginning of this past season I thought he had a better than 50-50 chance of playing in at least one all-star game. Now, I'm not so sure. He's a good starting NBA player, and the Blazers are glad to have him, so I think RAPM is underrating him at least a little. But maybe the RAPM is largely correct that he's essentially just another starter, or better, depending on whether we buy the top 30th or top 20th percentile rating.

mtamada wrote:Batum's a fascinatingly difficult case, especially because his quality of play may've stagnated or even diminished this past year.

im wrong a ton and hence may be wrong here too, but I really disagree with this. both the boxscore and rapm parts of our model had him taking a huge step up this year, over a 3000 mp sample. we had him with a prior of -0.5 going into the season, and a 2014 value (based solely on play in 2014) of > +2.

mtamada wrote:Batum's a fascinatingly difficult case, especially because his quality of play may've stagnated or even diminished this past year.

His re-signing wasn't just Portland getting stars in their eyes over him; Minnesota tried to sign him and Portland had to match their offer so there was at least one other team that thought he was valuable.

At the time I thought it was a good signing by BOTH Minnesota and Portland. Batum to me is a player with early Rodman-esque defensive skills, who is the Blazers' best 1-on-1 defender to put on any player ranging from point guards to power forwards. When Tony Parker was shredding the Blazers' defense in the playoffs, what finally slowed him down (and got the Blazers their one win against the Spurs) was having Batum guard Parker right from the opening tip.

But Batum is not a 1-dimensional Rodman or Bruce Bowen; he's an excellent passer and playmaker, and a three-point threat, and an excellent finisher.

And he was getting better each season that he played in the NBA.

But.

His contributions to the offense this season were not as large nor as consistent as one would hope, looking at his career trajectory of continued improvement in the past. Even 2013 was in some ways a year of non-improvement offensively, although his assist percentage skyrocketed that year and he became a solid part of the Blazers offense. But although a solid offensive player, he's not someone like a Lillard or Aldridge that you build your offense around.

Some of that diminishment might be attributed to Lillard's and Aldridge's continued improvement (and Wes Matthews'), leaving less opportunity for Batum to contribute offensively. But still, I was expecting to see him become more of an offensive force this season, especially after his experience being a key player for a very good French national team.

And his defense? When I last looked, the public RAPM numbers rated him as a below average defender for 2014. So we've got a classic case of conflicting empirical evidence. Should I believe my lyin' eyes, or RAPM with its high standard errors? Or neither?

So I really don't know what to make of Batum. There is no question that he has the potential to be an all-star. At the beginning of this past season I thought he had a better than 50-50 chance of playing in at least one all-star game. Now, I'm not so sure. He's a good starting NBA player, and the Blazers are glad to have him, so I think RAPM is underrating him at least a little. But maybe the RAPM is largely correct that he's essentially just another starter, or better, depending on whether we buy the top 30th or top 20th percentile rating.

I think a lot of the value in Batum is his versatility, not in position, but in the types of lineups you can throw him in. He can rebound, he can pass, he can create off the dribble, he can score inside the arc, or space the floor. He's a guy where you don't have to worry about who else is on the floor with him because his skill set is so versatile that he can adapt to pretty much any situation. A few years ago he was asked to score more and was a 16-5-2 per 36 type guy, now he's asked to be more of an auxiliary piece and he's a 13-7-5 type guy. From a team building perspective, a guy who can adapt like that is really attractive.

I do wish I could get a better read on his defensive contributions, as his RAPM there is concerning. A Batum that's strong on that end of the court is a guy I could certainly see as the 3rd best player on a contender.

Crow wrote:How many minutes will a playoff bound team give Caboclo next season? 500? 250?

Raptors have already stated he'll be spending a lot of time in the D league. Whether he gets minutes there, who knows?

As a Raptor fan, I don't mind the pick. It's a total flier, but at #20 in the first round, there weren't a lot of sure things left anyway. The Raptors are now fairly deep (nearly 2 deep at each position) and so drafting a "solid" player with less potential was perhaps not as appealing. The Raptors were very high on Tyler Ennis, but once he was off the board, Bruno was their next pick.

And to the guy who said the GM maybe fell in love after watching highlights, Ujiri actually first saw him at Basketball without Borders, where he was the MVP. After that he made multiple scouting trips to Brazil (and flew Casey out there too). Leandro Barbosa played on the same team and was providing scouting info to his NBA contacts as well (including the Raptors).

I'm not saying this kid will turn out to be anything, but as much due diligence as one could expect in this situation seems to have been done.

Here is a take w/ more details on how the Raps "found & fell in love w/ Bruno":

http://www.si.com/nba/2014/08/01/bruno- ... asai-ujiri

and more details here: http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-bas ... o-got-here