APBRmetrics

Just wanted to get the seat warm. Mike submitted the 1st set of projections in mid October; we're 3 months ahead of schedule. I'm going to try to have my 1st pass done in a week or so, since I'm giddy for this sort of thing. This year I will also be submitting 2 different entries, the 1st using my prior method, the 2nd using a new aging curve + minutes projection. If anyone wants to submit super early entries, by all means, feel free.

Look forward to seeing, maybe discussing.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11334 ... -standings

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11334 ... -standings

Some thoughts for fun:

- Love CLE to finish 1st in the East in the regular season. Probably not best record in the league but 57-59 Ws should be do-able

- Fading the Bulls a little compared to expectations. One of my theories is to not overreact when a team keeps winning after a major mid-season trade the rest of the year. They can be motivated to play well without him, the opponent doesn't have enough time to adjust to the new team, etc. In other words, the Bulls not having Luol this year hurts them more for me than their immediate results last year showed. Still one of the best teams in the East but possibly a record within a few wins of last year

- I could see Atlanta being 2nd seed in the East instead. Very balanced in a Spurs like way. Strong spacing, bigs with skill up front, penetration at PG, the Thabo signing fills a need. Could have 13-14 Portland's record IMO

- Not a fan of the Hornets next season for their spacing problems

- This being the year the Clippers have best record in the league wouldn't surprise me. Hawes improvement over complete garbage they had as backup bigs last yr is a difference, Dudley should bounce back, Next Level Blake playing more minutes with a healthy Paul next season.

- Decided I still think Portland is going to be good despite hating the Kaman move. Although their shooting gives a "inflated BABIP" vibe to last season, I think the bottom line is Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge and Lopez are all good to elite players for their position and having a full lineup you can say that about is rare. Plus Lillard going from all-star to MVP convo guy in year 3 seems conceivable.

- Coming around on the Pelicans as well because the defense could be very strong. Offensively they have a ton of problems but Ryno and AD can get them by.

- Houston having a 7th-9th seed season would make sense as well. The problem isn't Ariza for Parsons, but that their bench now looks unplayable.

- Phoenix will come down to earth I think. Losing Frye hurts as does the rest of the league having a year to catch up to Horny Ball. Their talent level outside of the 3 PGs is really bad and that'll probably be their undoing. If the over/under for their seed was 10.5 I'd pick over.

Kaman does give Aldridge more security that he will basically always be able to play next to a vet 5; and since that is a priority for him, I accept the move.

- I could see Atlanta being 2nd seed in the East instead. Very balanced in a Spurs like way. Strong spacing, bigs with skill up front, penetration at PG, the Thabo signing fills a need. Could have 13-14 Portland's record IMO

I like their roster, but alot of it will depend on health. BWIN currently has them at 44.5

- Coming around on the Pelicans as well because the defense could be very strong. Offensively they have a ton of problems but Ryno and AD can get them by.

Evans and Gordon are two of the worst defenders in the league - the Pelicans allowed an abysmal 1.18 PPP when both were on the floor in 750 Minutes last season

- Phoenix will come down to earth I think. Losing Frye hurts as does the rest of the league having a year to catch up to Horny Ball. Their talent level outside of the 3 PGs is really bad and that'll probably be their undoing. If the over/under for their seed was 10.5 I'd pick over.

Rumors are they're trying to deal Bledsoe, so they might not even have those 3 PGs. I think If Bledsoe leaves all it would take is Dragic missing some games due to injuries for them to not crack 30. That's pretty much worst case scenario though. If the roster stays that that way and no major injuries happen I have a hard time seeing them win less games than MIN/UTA/LAL/SAC

Here are the win total O/Us from a week agoThese sum up to 1237. It seems since these got published the lines have moved and the following teams are now estimated to win more: CHA, OKC, DEN, POR, DAL, LAC, BRK, MIL, CLE, CHI, MIA
..and these are estimated to win less: ORL, NOP, WAS, TOR, DET, IND

Unfortunately I don't know how to convert changes in payout to change in O/U. Originally, with the Washington Wizards you'd win $0.85 for $1 when (correctly) picking either side of 50.5. Now you'd get $1.10 for (correctly) picking the over, $0.65 for picking the under. Obviously this means they're now expected to win less than 50.5, but how much I don't know

Looking at the original list, I think Memphis is a tad high at 50.5. They were at 46 PythWins last year and, aside from Gasol missing 20 games, had no injuries to key players. They did play better after the Courtney Lee trade, though, and Vince Carter should be an upgrade over Mike Miller. Probably really close to 50 but I'd have probably said ~48.5

Washington already got bumped down and I agree. 45 PWins last season. Pierce is probably an upgrade over Ariza when healthy but he's now 36. Nene missed 30 games last season but he's always missing a chunk of games, and he's currently playing at the WC which, I think, should lower his expected games played for next season

Denver had 35 PWins last season. McGee and Gallinari were out for all but 5 games. They also traded Fournier for Afflalo. Gallinari was good before his ACL injury but we can't tell how good he is now. RPM doesn't like McGee or Afflalo. I'd take the U

Charlotte had 40 PWins last season, lost McRoberts and Tolliver, signed Stephenson. I think 44.5 is a little too high

I think Indiana is too well coached and has too good of a frontcourt to just win 38. Maybe I'm underrating Stephenson..

Orlando had 26 PWins last year, lost Nelson and Afflalo, signed Frye. Like the Over

The T-Wolves will obviously have a tough time in the West, but I think 25 is a little too low. Haven't run the numbers but I think RPM would say something closer to ~33. Rubio/Pek/Young/Brewer have a good RPM, Martin/Budinger close to average.

My first reaction would be to take the under on the Magic, but I haven't looked at it hard.

Lakers under 33.5 is easily my favorite of those

Pre-preliminary estimates based on rosters appearing at Yahoo sports:Last year, the West averaged 45 wins and the East 37; so this looks as if yet more talent has shifted West.
The Sixers have a roster that played just 170 mpg last year -- another 72 mpg are needed from somewhere.

J.E. wrote:Here are the win total O/Us from a week ago

Code: Select all

╔══════════════╦══════╗
║     Team     ║ O/U  ║
╠══════════════╬══════╣
║ Cleveland    ║ 57.5 ║
║ San Antonio  ║ 57.5 ║
║ Oklahoma     ║ 56.5 ║
║ Chicago      ║ 55.5 ║
║ Clippers     ║ 55.5 ║
║ Memphis      ║ 50.5 ║
║ Washington   ║ 50.5 ║
║ Golden State ║ 49.5 ║
║ Dallas       ║ 48.5 ║
║ Houston      ║ 48.5 ║
║ Toronto      ║ 47.5 ║
║ Portland     ║ 46.5 ║
║ Atlanta      ║ 44.5 ║
║ Denver       ║ 44.5 ║
║ Charlotte    ║ 43.5 ║
║ Miami        ║ 43.5 ║
║ Phoenix      ║ 42.5 ║
║ New Orleans  ║ 41.5 ║
║ Brooklyn     ║ 39.5 ║
║ Indiana      ║ 38.5 ║
║ Detroit      ║ 36.5 ║
║ New York     ║ 36.5 ║
║ Lakers       ║ 33.5 ║
║ Boston       ║ 28.5 ║
║ Orlando      ║ 27.5 ║
║ Sacramento   ║ 26.5 ║
║ Minnesota    ║ 25.5 ║
║ Utah         ║ 22.5 ║
║ Milwaukee    ║ 20.5 ║
║ Philly       ║ 17.5 ║
╚══════════════╩══════╝

The standout bets to me are Philly U, Lakers U, Washington U, and Minnesota O. An extended injury to MCW would put this 76ers team at serious risk of taking their title back from the 11-12 Bobcats, and they already overperformed their PWins by 1.5 last year with a superior roster. The projections I've run (an RAPM variant and a WP variant) both have the Lakers at the bottom of the Western barrel and I'm not sure if even 2012-2013 Kobe would be able to pull this roster above 34 wins. Pierce may be an upgrade over Ariza, certainly by RAPM, but the combination of regression due to age and playing 7-10mpg less (and 7-10 more minutes of Porter/Rice) along with really minor bench upgrades makes me doubt Washington can jump 7 PWins. And Minnesota went 22-42 in 12-13 when Love was out, and that was a team without Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer, and Thaddeus Young - they should have more than enough to comfortably win 30+ games.

My projections both run the Magic in the mid-20s, but I suspect they are the most volatile team heading into next season. Acquiring shooters in Frye, Gordon, and Fournier makes me suspect Hennigan wants to test the waters for the first half of the season and if he sees a route to the playoffs (e.g. top 9 Eastern record), he could commit assets to a playoff run. Their record is already somewhat artificially deflated from playing Oladipo so many minutes at PG last season, so I think they could overperform even an optimistic projection. I guess there's really no statistical basis on which to predict that, but if there's a team that replicates the surprise of the Bobcats/Suns this season, the Magic have most evident basis to do that.

Does anyone know where these players are?
If they aren't appearing on a team's roster, does that just mean they haven't signed a contract yet?
Players and where they were last seen:

Maybe all of the 'missing' players listed above are going to the East. My predictions (preliminary!) indicate a 10-win advantage per team in the West; JE's list is at merely 4 -- half that of last season.
Hopefully I'm way off.

I count 94 players who have changed teams. They averaged 1350 minutes last year and .92 eWins/484 (avg = 1.00)
Moving from East to West are 21 players totaling 30,110 minutes and 54.9 eWins -- .88 eW/484
Going West to East are 29 players, with 35,939 min. and 64.4 eW -- .87 e484

Rookies seem to be balanced between E and W.

Mike G wrote:Does anyone know where these players are?
If they aren't appearing on a team's roster, does that just mean they haven't signed a contract yet?
Players and where they were last seen:

Code: Select all

Andray Blatche    Brk
Ramon Sessions    Mil
Evan Turner       Ind
Jordan Crawford   GSW
Shawn Marion      Dal
Ray Allen         Mia
Elton Brand       Atl
Michael Beasley   Mia
Omri Casspi       Hou
Dante Cunningham  Min
James Anderson    Phl
Jermaine O'Neal   GSW
Kent Bazemore     LAL
Andrew Bynum      Ind
C Douglas-Roberts Cha
E'Twaun Moore     Orl

Evan Turner - Boston
Marion - Cleveland
Bazemore - Atlanta
CDR - LA Clippers

I think the rest are free agents.