APBRmetrics

ICYMI, I wrote something about gambling on the NBA.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/04/10/fre ... l-betting/

I'm confident that a group of APBRers could "beat" vegas.
The biggest impediment is how large of a sample size would be necessary. Considering this, the project would need to be bankrolled by someone with a substantial amount of money. Anyone in that position would have an easier time making money in other ways.

Out of curiosity, how does the Vegas pre-season win predictions compare to those in the 538 contest; namely 538 and PT-PM?

I don't think I've ever been called a "Famous Stathead" before.

I really enjoyed this article, Will.

ampersand5 wrote:I'm confident that a group of APBRers could "beat" vegas.
The biggest impediment is how large of a sample size would be necessary. Considering this, the project would need to be bankrolled by someone with a substantial amount of money. Anyone in that position would have an easier time making money in other ways.

Out of curiosity, how does the Vegas pre-season win predictions compare to those in the 538 contest; namely 538 and PT-PM?

90%+ of the people here probably won't end up profitable over a long period of time (when it comes to spreads, game totals, etc.)

if you're talking only about season win totals, then i can see that. but win totals are basically treated as props and don't allow any major action (max 1k per bet @ westgate in lv, dunno about pinnacle, cris, etc.)
syndicates and professional gamblers probably don't want to waste their time on that amount of money and they also might not want to tie up money for 6 months. my guess is that win totals end up easier to beat because of that.


nice article will.

sndesai1 wrote:

ampersand5 wrote:I'm confident that a group of APBRers could "beat" vegas.
The biggest impediment is how large of a sample size would be necessary. Considering this, the project would need to be bankrolled by someone with a substantial amount of money. Anyone in that position would have an easier time making money in other ways.

Out of curiosity, how does the Vegas pre-season win predictions compare to those in the 538 contest; namely 538 and PT-PM?

90%+ of the people here probably won't end up profitable over a long period of time (when it comes to spreads, game totals, etc.)

if you're talking only about season win totals, then i can see that. but win totals are basically treated as props and don't allow any major action (max 1k per bet @ westgate in lv, dunno about pinnacle, cris, etc.)
syndicates and professional gamblers probably don't want to waste their time on that amount of money and they also might not want to tie up money for 6 months. my guess is that win totals end up easier to beat because of that.


nice article will.

I only mentioned preseason predictions because thats something specific that APBR cares about. The majority of people on APBR don't care about being able to predict who is going to score more points in a quarter, or many of the other narrow areas where professional bettors can make their money.

If you think one person working in isolation could beat vegas but not the collective of APBR working together, I think you vastly underestimate the wisdom of crowds.

DSMok1 wrote:I don't think I've ever been called a "Famous Stathead" before.

You're on my Mount Rushmore of NBA statheads.

ampersand5 wrote:If you think one person working in isolation could beat vegas but not the collective of APBR working together, I think you vastly underestimate the wisdom of crowds.

I suspect that APBR folk have pretty similar methodology and biases and hence wouldn't fit wisdom of crowds requirements.

Isn't one of the biggest issues with making a sustainable living from gambling simply having the infrastructure to place big enough bets to make it worth it?

EvanZ wrote:Isn't one of the biggest issues with making a sustainable living from gambling simply having the infrastructure to place big enough bets to make it worth it?

There's also variance, finding enough betting opportunities with an edge, and discipline.

As for the wisdom of crowds, I'm pretty sure I'd get bored too easily to wager profitably.

EvanZ wrote:Isn't one of the biggest issues with making a sustainable living from gambling simply having the infrastructure to place big enough bets to make it worth it?

You can bet $10k a game on game spreads, on game day at a couple of major books pretty easily. If the spread moves, you can hit it again for $10k.

If that's not big enough for you, email me and we'll talk.