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New stat - NBA Passer Rating

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 2:04 pm
by humanhighlightreel
Hi all,

I was recently linked to this forum after posting a new stat on /r/nba, as another Reddit user thought you all might be interested. The stat is called NBA Passer Rating, and it aims to create a more accurate reflection of the quality of NBA players’ passes than AST%, Assist Ratio, Pure Point Rating, etc. The main objectives of the stat are to control for players who us a disproportionate number of their teams’ possessions, and to determine more precisely the relative value of an assist vs. a turnover.

Method

In order to control for role within an offense I decided to make a stat that measures value per 100 passes, rather than based on time or number of team possessions. This is because certain players will always have inflated AST figures based on the amount of times they get the ball over the course of a basketball game. A guy like Michael Carter-Williams was 13th in the league in APG this season because (at least in Philly) he was given the keys to the offense, but he ranks much lower per 100 passes because he is not a particularly effective distributor.

In order to more accurately determine the relative value of an assist or FT assist vs. turnover, I decided to measure the points generated or lost relative to the opportunity cost of an NBA. For example, the value of a players assists is equal to the points their assists generated, less the opportunity cost of those possessions. The value of a players passing turnovers is equal to negative the opportunity cost of the possession less the additional expected value of their opponents next possession.

Below I will provide a breakdown of my method.

Required Inputs (Individual):

- Passes (“PASS”) per game
- Assists (“AST”) per game
- Points (“PTS”) created by assist per game
- FT Assists (“FT AST”) per game
- Passing turnover (“PTOV”) per game

Required Inputs (League):

- Average ORTG per possession (“PPP”) or opportunity cost of a possession (1.056)
- Average FT% (75.6%)
- Δ EV of a possession following a turnover (0.288 ppp)

Calculations:

Step 1 – Determine AST, FT AST, PTOV per 100 passes by dividing APG, FT AST per game, PTOV per game by passes per game, and multiplying by 100. Step 1 is not actually necessary but helps explain the rationale.

Step 2 – Determine points created (lost) by AST, FT AST, PTOV per game as follows:
- PTS created (lost) by AST = Pts created by AST - opportunity cost of a possession x
- PTS created (lost) by FT AST = FT AST x (2 x average FT%) - (opportunity cost of a possession x AST)
- PTS created (lost) by PTOV = -PTOV x (opportunity cost of a possession + Δ EV of a possession following a turnover)

Step 3 – Determine each PTS created (lost) by AST, FT AST, PTOV per 100 passes by dividing each by PASS per game and multiplying by 100.

Step 4 – Determine NBA Passer Rating by summing PTS created (lost) by AST, FT AST, PTOV per 100 passes.

Example – Stephen Curry

Inputs:

- PASS per game = 56.1 (nba.com)
- AST per game = 7.8 (basketball-reference.com)
- PST created by AST per game = 18.2 (nba.com)
- FT AST per game = 0.7
- PTOV per game = 2.0

Step 1

AST/100 PASS = (AST per game / PASS per game)*100 = 7.8/56.1*100 = 13.9

FT AST / 100 PASS = (FT AST per game / PASS per game)*100 = 0.7/56.1*100 = 1.2

PTOV / 100 PASS = (PTOV per game / PASS per game)*100 = 2.0/56.1*100 = 3.6

Step 2

PTS created (lost) by AST = PTS created by AST - (PPP*AST per game) = 18.2 - (1.056*7.8) = 10.0

PTS created (lost) by FT AST = FT AST*(2*average FT AST) = 0.7*2*0.756 = 0.5

PTS created (lost) by PTOV = -PTOV x (PPP + Δ EV of a possession following a turnover) = -2.0*(1.056 + 0.288) = -2.7

Step 3

PTS created (lost) by AST / 100 PASS = 10.0 / 56.1 *100 = 17.8

PTS created (lost) by FT AST / 100 PASS = 0.5 / 56.1 * 100 = 0.9

PTS created (lost) by PTOV / 100 PASS = -2.7 / 56.1 * 100 = -4.9

Step 4

NBA Passer Rating = 17.8 + 0.9 - 4.9 = 13.8

Full List (min 500 pass)

Rank | Player | Position | Team | GP | PASS | Passer Rating
:----- | :----- | ----- | ----- | ----- | ----- | -----
1 | Ty Lawson | PG | DEN | 75 | 4568 | 18.09
2 | Chris Paul | PG | LAC | 82 | 5756 | 16.84
3 | James Harden | SG | HOU | 81 | 3758 | 15.75
4 | LeBron James | SF | CLE | 69 | 3623 | 14.96
5 | Tyreke Evans | SF | NOP | 79 | 4116 | 14.29
6 | Russell Westbrook | PG | OKC | 67 | 3759 | 14.25
7 | John Wall | PG | WAS | 79 | 5617 | 14.09
8 | Spencer Dinwiddie | PG | DET | 34 | 860 | 13.96
9 | Stephen Curry | PG | GSW | 80 | 4488 | 13.77
10 | Nate Robinson | PG | MUL | 42 | 832 | 13.65
11 | Jeff Teague | PG | ATL | 73 | 3979 | 13.5
12 | Brandon Jennings | PG | DET | 41 | 2210 | 13.44
13 | Ricky Rubio | PG | MIN | 22 | 1421 | 13.37
14 | Kyle Lowry | PG | TOR | 70 | 4004 | 12.98
15 | Jose Barea | PG | DAL | 77 | 2441 | 12.84
16 | Jrue Holiday | PG | NOP | 40 | 2164 | 12.74
17 | Eric Gordon | SG | NOP | 61 | 1763 | 12.59
18 | DeMar DeRozan | SG | TOR | 60 | 2010 | 12.54
19 | Elfrid Payton | PG | ORL | 82 | 4248 | 12.48
20 | Rajon Rondo | PG | MUL | 68 | 4386 | 12.35
21 | John Lucas | PG | DET | 21 | 546 | 12.35
22 | Reggie Jackson | PG | MUL | 77 | 3696 | 12.28
23 | Isaiah Thomas | PG | MUL | 67 | 2774 | 12.22
24 | Phil Pressey | PG | BOS | 50 | 1165 | 12.05
25 | Kendall Marshall | PG | MIL | 28 | 722 | 11.99
26 | Ish Smith | PG | MUL | 55 | 1590 | 11.93
27 | Kobe Bryant | SG | LAL | 35 | 1320 | 11.83
28 | Jameer Nelson | PG | MUL | 63 | 2369 | 11.83
29 | Deron Williams | PG | BRK | 68 | 3896 | 11.45
30 | O.J. Mayo | SG | MIL | 71 | 1484 | 11.44
31 | Monta Ellis | SG | DAL | 80 | 3168 | 11.42
32 | Klay Thompson | SG | GSW | 77 | 1810 | 11.31
33 | Dwyane Wade | SG | MIA | 62 | 2412 | 11.16
34 | Manu Ginobili | SG | SAS | 70 | 2254 | 11.14
35 | Joe Johnson | SG | BRK | 80 | 2896 | 11.1
36 | D.J. Augustin | PG | MUL | 82 | 3378 | 10.98
37 | Andre Miller | PG | MUL | 81 | 2552 | 10.97
38 | Lorenzo Brown | PG | MIN | 29 | 960 | 10.95
39 | Leandro Barbosa | SG | GSW | 66 | 1043 | 10.8
40 | Randy Foye | SG | DEN | 50 | 1025 | 10.8
41 | Dion Waiters | SG | MUL | 80 | 1624 | 10.78
42 | Blake Griffin | PF | LAC | 67 | 3792 | 10.68
43 | Dennis Schroder | PG | ATL | 77 | 3034 | 10.68
44 | Jamal Crawford | SG | LAC | 64 | 1510 | 10.66
45 | Darius Morris | PG | BRK | 38 | 502 | 10.65
46 | Shaun Livingston | PG | GSW | 78 | 2816 | 10.43
47 | Mo Williams | PG | MUL | 68 | 3760 | 10.35
48 | George Hill | PG | IND | 43 | 2335 | 10.33
49 | Steve Blake | PG | POR | 81 | 2689 | 10.32
50 | Kyrie Irving | PG | CLE | 75 | 4178 | 10.31
51 | Al Horford | C | ATL | 76 | 3207 | 10.24
52 | Lance Stephenson | SG | CHO | 61 | 2269 | 10.23
53 | Tony Parker | PG | SAS | 68 | 3699 | 10.22
54 | Shelvin Mack | PG | ATL | 55 | 1480 | 10.22
55 | Jarrett Jack | PG | BRK | 80 | 3536 | 10.09
56 | Ronnie Price | PG | LAL | 43 | 1724 | 10.07
57 | Michael Carter-Williams | PG | MUL | 66 | 4231 | 9.99
58 | Evan Turner | SG | BOS | 82 | 4018 | 9.99
59 | Kevin Durant | SF | OKC | 27 | 932 | 9.93
60 | Eric Bledsoe | PG | PHO | 81 | 4609 | 9.87
61 | Jeremy Lin | PG | LAL | 74 | 2967 | 9.78
62 | Jimmer Fredette | PG | NOP | 50 | 510 | 9.72
63 | Devin Harris | PG | DAL | 76 | 2652 | 9.68
64 | Andre Iguodala | SG | GSW | 77 | 2556 | 9.63
65 | Rodney Stuckey | PG | IND | 71 | 2300 | 9.62
66 | Jimmy Butler | SG | CHI | 65 | 2347 | 9.6
67 | Damian Lillard | PG | POR | 82 | 5092 | 9.53
68 | Matthew Dellavedova | SG | CLE | 67 | 2372 | 9.5
69 | Donald Sloan | PG | IND | 53 | 2258 | 9.44
70 | Goran Dragic | PG | MUL | 78 | 3955 | 9.29
71 | Josh Smith | PF | MUL | 83 | 2789 | 9.23
72 | Nicolas Batum | SF | POR | 71 | 3479 | 9.17
73 | Jordan Clarkson | PG | LAL | 59 | 2283 | 9.08
74 | Gordon Hayward | SF | UTA | 76 | 3526 | 9.08
75 | Evan Fournier | SG | ORL | 58 | 1409 | 9.07
76 | Darren Collison | PG | SAC | 45 | 2858 | 9.05
77 | Luke Ridnour | PG | ORL | 47 | 1137 | 8.91
78 | Austin Rivers | SG | MUL | 76 | 1862 | 8.87
79 | Victor Oladipo | PG | ORL | 72 | 3038 | 8.76
80 | Alexey Shved | SG | MUL | 42 | 1189 | 8.75
81 | Gerald Henderson | SG | CHO | 80 | 2264 | 8.68
82 | Joakim Noah | C | CHI | 67 | 3806 | 8.61
83 | Cory Joseph | PG | SAS | 79 | 2670 | 8.61
84 | Marcus Smart | PG | BOS | 67 | 2405 | 8.56
85 | James Johnson | SF | TOR | 70 | 1141 | 8.54
86 | Greivis Vasquez | PG | TOR | 82 | 3723 | 8.53
87 | Corey Brewer | SF | MUL | 80 | 1824 | 8.52
88 | Rudy Gay | SF | SAC | 68 | 2496 | 8.48
89 | Lou Williams | SG | TOR | 80 | 1912 | 8.45
90 | Kawhi Leonard | SF | SAS | 64 | 2074 | 8.36
91 | A.J. Price | PG | MUL | 26 | 588 | 8.29
92 | Tyler Ennis | PG | MUL | 33 | 733 | 8.26
93 | Norris Cole | PG | MUL | 75 | 3360 | 8.25
94 | Tony Wroten | SG | PHI | 30 | 1617 | 8.18
95 | Draymond Green | SF | GSW | 79 | 4076 | 8.1
96 | Kemba Walker | PG | CHO | 62 | 4247 | 8.07
97 | Marc Gasol | C | MEM | 81 | 3839 | 8.05
98 | Mario Chalmers | PG | MIA | 80 | 3896 | 8.02
99 | J.R. Smith | SG | MUL | 70 | 2226 | 8.02
100 | Joe Ingles | SF | UTA | 79 | 2212 | 8.01
101 | Mike Conley | PG | MEM | 70 | 4256 | 7.92
102 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | SG | MIL | 81 | 2851 | 7.9
103 | Trey Burke | PG | UTA | 76 | 4545 | 7.88
104 | Ryan Kelly | PF | LAL | 52 | 1227 | 7.86
105 | Brandon Knight | PG | MUL | 63 | 3251 | 7.86
106 | Wayne Ellington | SG | LAL | 65 | 1287 | 7.83
107 | Patrick Mills | PG | SAS | 51 | 1418 | 7.82
108 | Patrick Beverley | PG | HOU | 56 | 2856 | 7.77
109 | Jodie Meeks | SG | DET | 60 | 900 | 7.73
110 | Erick Green | PG | DEN | 43 | 576 | 7.7
111 | Ramon Sessions | PG | MUL | 64 | 2189 | 7.7
112 | Derrick Rose | PG | CHI | 51 | 2744 | 7.67
113 | Nick Calathes | SG | MEM | 58 | 1520 | 7.64
114 | Markel Brown | SG | BRK | 47 | 508 | 7.63
115 | Zaza Pachulia | C | MIL | 73 | 1913 | 7.63
116 | Boris Diaw | PF | SAS | 81 | 3443 | 7.61
117 | Iman Shumpert | SG | MUL | 62 | 1748 | 7.59
118 | Andrew Bogut | C | GSW | 67 | 2271 | 7.54
119 | Terrence Ross | SF | TOR | 82 | 1238 | 7.53
120 | Gary Neal | SG | MUL | 54 | 1237 | 7.47
121 | David West | PF | IND | 66 | 2990 | 7.45
122 | Aaron Brooks | PG | CHI | 82 | 3124 | 7.41
123 | Sebastian Telfair | PG | OKC | 16 | 592 | 7.41
124 | Anthony Davis | PF | NOP | 68 | 2407 | 7.35
125 | Thabo Sefolosha | SF | ATL | 52 | 1243 | 7.34
126 | Pablo Prigioni | PG | MUL | 67 | 2318 | 7.31
127 | Mike Scott | PF | ATL | 68 | 1333 | 7.3
128 | Ray McCallum | PG | SAC | 68 | 2550 | 7.28
129 | Gerald Green | SG | PHO | 74 | 1147 | 7.27
130 | Bradley Beal | SG | WAS | 63 | 2318 | 7.23
131 | DeMarcus Cousins | C | SAC | 59 | 2478 | 7.21
132 | C.J. Watson | PG | IND | 57 | 2628 | 7.21
133 | Larry Drew | PG | PHI | 12 | 518 | 7.21
134 | Jerryd Bayless | PG | MIL | 77 | 2680 | 7.16
135 | Kostas Papanikolaou | SF | HOU | 43 | 1023 | 7.15
136 | Al Jefferson | C | CHO | 65 | 1684 | 7.13
137 | Brian Roberts | PG | CHO | 72 | 2362 | 7.12
138 | Carmelo Anthony | SF | NYK | 40 | 1700 | 7.12
139 | Shane Larkin | PG | NYK | 76 | 3443 | 7.11
140 | Beno Udrih | PG | MEM | 79 | 2923 | 7.11
141 | Willie Green | SG | ORL | 52 | 894 | 7.07
142 | Wesley Matthews | SG | POR | 60 | 1896 | 7.03
143 | Solomon Hill | SF | IND | 82 | 2411 | 7.03
144 | J.J. Redick | SG | LAC | 78 | 1825 | 6.96
145 | Will Barton | SG | MUL | 58 | 1021 | 6.93
146 | Alan Anderson | SG | BRK | 74 | 1265 | 6.92
147 | Jason Terry | SG | HOU | 77 | 2218 | 6.88
148 | Arron Afflalo | SG | MUL | 78 | 1810 | 6.83
149 | Paul Millsap | PF | ATL | 73 | 3205 | 6.81
150 | Mike Dunleavy | SF | CHI | 63 | 1676 | 6.76
151 | Shabazz Napier | PG | MIA | 51 | 1856 | 6.76
152 | Tyler Johnson | SG | MIA | 32 | 733 | 6.75
153 | Paul Pierce | SF | WAS | 73 | 1562 | 6.74
154 | Rodney Hood | SG | UTA | 50 | 1235 | 6.73
155 | Tim Duncan | PF | SAS | 77 | 3334 | 6.69
156 | Andrew Wiggins | SG | MIN | 82 | 1886 | 6.68
157 | Khris Middleton | SF | MIL | 79 | 2291 | 6.64
158 | Kevin Martin | SG | MIN | 39 | 1026 | 6.64
159 | Kyle Anderson | SF | SAS | 33 | 508 | 6.63
160 | Chandler Parsons | SF | DAL | 66 | 2521 | 6.62
161 | Jared Sullinger | PF | BOS | 58 | 2291 | 6.62
162 | Kirk Hinrich | SG | CHI | 66 | 2072 | 6.61
163 | Jordan Farmar | PG | LAC | 36 | 918 | 6.61
164 | Trevor Ariza | SF | HOU | 82 | 3370 | 6.53
165 | David Lee | PF | GSW | 49 | 1495 | 6.5
166 | Zach LaVine | PG | MIN | 77 | 3249 | 6.48
167 | Justin Holiday | SG | GSW | 59 | 584 | 6.44
168 | Courtney Lee | SG | MEM | 77 | 2295 | 6.41
169 | Mike Miller | SF | CLE | 52 | 822 | 6.33
170 | Nikola Vucevic | C | ORL | 74 | 2523 | 6.32
171 | Spencer Hawes | PF | LAC | 73 | 1767 | 6.29
172 | Allen Crabbe | SG | POR | 51 | 607 | 6.26
174 | Tyler Zeller | C | BOS | 82 | 1886 | 6.22
174 | Jose Calderon | PG | NYK | 42 | 2545 | 6.22
175 | Gorgui Dieng | C | MIN | 73 | 2088 | 6.2
176 | Nik Stauskas | SG | SAC | 73 | 869 | 6.15
177 | Alec Burks | SG | UTA | 27 | 1301 | 6.15
178 | Danilo Gallinari | SF | DEN | 59 | 1280 | 6.14
179 | Jeremy Lamb | SG | OKC | 47 | 531 | 6.12
180 | Taj Gibson | PF | CHI | 62 | 1562 | 6.06
181 | Marco Belinelli | SG | SAS | 62 | 1507 | 6.05
182 | Quincy Pondexter | SF | MUL | 75 | 1463 | 6.01
183 | Isaiah Canaan | PG | MUL | 47 | 1683 | 6
184 | Tayshaun Prince | SF | MUL | 58 | 1636 | 5.98
185 | Langston Galloway | PG | NYK | 45 | 2466 | 5.95
186 | Robert Sacre | C | LAL | 67 | 1159 | 5.92
187 | James Ennis | SF | MIA | 62 | 794 | 5.91
188 | Patrick Patterson | PF | TOR | 81 | 2957 | 5.89
189 | C.J. McCollum | SG | POR | 62 | 936 | 5.86
190 | Markieff Morris | PF | PHO | 82 | 2829 | 5.85
191 | Wilson Chandler | SF | DEN | 78 | 2410 | 5.83
192 | Brandon Bass | PF | BOS | 82 | 2066 | 5.83
193 | Pau Gasol | PF | CHI | 78 | 3767 | 5.83
194 | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | SF | CHO | 55 | 1463 | 5.81
195 | Marcus Morris | PF | PHO | 81 | 2219 | 5.78
196 | Jared Dudley | SG | MIL | 72 | 2275 | 5.74
197 | Robin Lopez | C | POR | 59 | 1086 | 5.73
198 | Nene Hilario | PF | WAS | 67 | 1802 | 5.71
199 | Greg Monroe | PF | DET | 69 | 2450 | 5.7
200 | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | SG | DET | 82 | 1911 | 5.69
201 | Darrell Arthur | PF | DEN | 58 | 969 | 5.69
202 | Andre Roberson | SG | OKC | 67 | 1193 | 5.63
203 | Harrison Barnes | SF | GSW | 82 | 2255 | 5.63
204 | Nick Collison | PF | OKC | 66 | 1742 | 5.57
205 | Bojan Bogdanovic | SF | BRK | 78 | 1123 | 5.57
206 | Elijah Millsap | SG | UTA | 47 | 907 | 5.55
207 | Jonas Jerebko | PF | MUL | 75 | 1643 | 5.55
208 | Kyle Korver | SG | ATL | 75 | 2145 | 5.52
209 | Damjan Rudez | SF | IND | 68 | 877 | 5.51
210 | Nikola Pekovic | C | MIN | 31 | 530 | 5.51
211 | Lavoy Allen | PF | IND | 63 | 1399 | 5.49
212 | Jeff Green | SF | MUL | 78 | 2426 | 5.49
213 | Kent Bazemore | SG | ATL | 75 | 1388 | 5.47
214 | Dante Exum | PG | UTA | 82 | 3018 | 5.47
215 | Glen Davis | PF | LAC | 74 | 873 | 5.46
216 | Jason Smith | C | NYK | 82 | 2558 | 5.46
217 | Luol Deng | SF | MIA | 72 | 2138 | 5.43
218 | Wesley Johnson | SF | LAL | 76 | 1725 | 5.42
219 | Tim Hardaway | SG | NYK | 70 | 2233 | 5.34
220 | Dirk Nowitzki | PF | DAL | 77 | 2772 | 5.32
221 | Anthony Morrow | SG | OKC | 74 | 1066 | 5.31
222 | JaKarr Sampson | SF | PHI | 74 | 1191 | 5.3
223 | Tony Allen | SG | MEM | 63 | 1235 | 5.28
224 | Omri Casspi | SF | SAC | 67 | 1615 | 5.2
225 | Jae Crowder | SF | MUL | 82 | 1845 | 5.19
226 | LaMarcus Aldridge | PF | POR | 71 | 2670 | 5.18
227 | Al-Farouq Aminu | SF | DAL | 74 | 1376 | 5.12
228 | Tiago Splitter | C | SAS | 52 | 1336 | 5.11
229 | Kevin Garnett | PF | MUL | 47 | 1636 | 5.11
230 | Thaddeus Young | PF | MUL | 76 | 3549 | 5.1
231 | Zach Randolph | PF | MEM | 71 | 2535 | 5.09
232 | Dorell Wright | SF | POR | 48 | 653 | 5.04
233 | Chris Copeland | SF | IND | 50 | 745 | 4.98
234 | Nick Young | SG | LAL | 42 | 571 | 4.85
235 | Ed Davis | PF | LAL | 79 | 2149 | 4.77
236 | K.J. McDaniels | SG | MUL | 62 | 1023 | 4.74
237 | DeMarre Carroll | SF | ATL | 70 | 2513 | 4.74
238 | Terrence Jones | PF | HOU | 33 | 901 | 4.72
239 | Ben McLemore | SG | SAC | 82 | 2132 | 4.71
240 | Otto Porter | SF | WAS | 74 | 1103 | 4.71
241 | Jordan Hill | C | LAL | 70 | 2261 | 4.7
242 | Shawn Marion | SF | CLE | 57 | 1123 | 4.66
243 | Danny Green | SG | SAS | 81 | 2859 | 4.62
244 | Justin Hamilton | C | MUL | 41 | 791 | 4.62
245 | Travis Wear | SF | NYK | 51 | 831 | 4.6
246 | Jabari Parker | SF | MIL | 25 | 698 | 4.57
247 | Garrett Temple | SG | WAS | 52 | 728 | 4.57
248 | Chase Budinger | SF | MIN | 67 | 1179 | 4.55
249 | Carlos Boozer | PF | LAL | 71 | 2116 | 4.55
250 | Kyle Singler | SF | MUL | 80 | 1720 | 4.52
251 | James Jones | SF | CLE | 57 | 735 | 4.51
252 | Matt Barnes | SF | LAC | 76 | 1885 | 4.51
253 | Chris Bosh | C | MIA | 44 | 1844 | 4.48
254 | Richard Jefferson | SF | DAL | 74 | 1243 | 4.48
255 | Meyers Leonard | C | POR | 55 | 941 | 4.47
256 | Kevin Seraphin | C | WAS | 79 | 1430 | 4.47
257 | Vince Carter | SG | MEM | 66 | 1188 | 4.46
258 | Rasual Butler | SF | WAS | 75 | 1193 | 4.42
259 | Avery Bradley | SG | BOS | 77 | 1802 | 4.38
260 | Furkan Aldemir | PF | PHI | 41 | 746 | 4.38
261 | Nikola Mirotic | PF | CHI | 82 | 1968 | 4.35
262 | Hollis Thompson | SG | PHI | 71 | 1569 | 4.34
263 | Kevin Love | PF | CLE | 75 | 3495 | 4.31
264 | Nerlens Noel | PF | PHI | 75 | 2625 | 4.29
265 | Kelly Olynyk | C | BOS | 64 | 2214 | 4.28
266 | Ben Gordon | SG | ORL | 56 | 526 | 4.2
267 | Robert Covington | SF | PHI | 70 | 2093 | 4.19
268 | Mike Muscala | PF | ATL | 40 | 740 | 4.14
269 | Anthony Bennett | PF | MIN | 57 | 1397 | 4.11
270 | Marcus Thornton | SG | MUL | 48 | 571 | 4.11
271 | Donatas Motiejunas | PF | HOU | 71 | 2868 | 4.09
272 | Ersan Ilyasova | PF | MIL | 58 | 1415 | 4.08
273 | Amir Johnson | PF | TOR | 75 | 2520 | 4.04
274 | Matt Bonner | PF | SAS | 72 | 1231 | 4.01
275 | Luc Mbah a Moute | PF | PHI | 67 | 2740 | 3.98
276 | Jusuf Nurkic | C | DEN | 62 | 1234 | 3.98
277 | Roy Hibbert | C | IND | 76 | 1968 | 3.91
278 | Quincy Acy | PF | NYK | 68 | 1605 | 3.9
279 | Aaron Gordon | PF | ORL | 47 | 790 | 3.85
280 | Louis Amundson | PF | MUL | 53 | 1341 | 3.8
281 | Joel Freeland | C | POR | 48 | 542 | 3.79
282 | Tobias Harris | SF | ORL | 68 | 2434 | 3.77
283 | Jason Thompson | PF | SAC | 81 | 2195 | 3.76
284 | Hedo Turkoglu | SF | LAC | 62 | 750 | 3.76
285 | Tarik Black | C | MUL | 63 | 1310 | 3.75
286 | Tyler Hansbrough | PF | TOR | 74 | 851 | 3.73
287 | Alexis Ajinca | C | NOP | 68 | 938 | 3.65
288 | Mason Plumlee | C | BRK | 82 | 1829 | 3.63
289 | Perry Jones | SF | OKC | 43 | 546 | 3.61
290 | Mirza Teletovic | PF | BRK | 40 | 1200 | 3.56
291 | Marreese Speights | PF | GSW | 76 | 1391 | 3.54
292 | Luis Scola | PF | IND | 81 | 2624 | 3.5
293 | Caron Butler | SF | DET | 78 | 1927 | 3.49
294 | Archie Goodwin | SG | PHO | 41 | 730 | 3.48
295 | Tony Snell | SF | CHI | 72 | 1094 | 3.43
296 | P.J. Tucker | SF | PHO | 78 | 2504 | 3.43
297 | Lance Thomas | PF | MUL | 62 | 1531 | 3.38
298 | Steven Adams | C | OKC | 70 | 1813 | 3.36
299 | Brandan Wright | PF | MUL | 75 | 1365 | 3.36
300 | Derrick Williams | PF | SAC | 74 | 1258 | 3.34
301 | Marcin Gortat | C | WAS | 82 | 2977 | 3.33
302 | Kenneth Faried | PF | DEN | 75 | 2033 | 3.26
303 | Pero Antic | PF | ATL | 63 | 1191 | 3.24
304 | Bismack Biyombo | C | CHO | 64 | 717 | 3.24
305 | Henry Walker | SF | MIA | 24 | 816 | 3.23
306 | Jerami Grant | SF | PHI | 65 | 1729 | 3.21
307 | John Henson | C | MIL | 67 | 1065 | 3.19
308 | Andrea Bargnani | C | NYK | 29 | 908 | 3.17
309 | Kyle O'Quinn | PF | ORL | 51 | 1224 | 3.14
310 | Rudy Gobert | C | UTA | 82 | 3395 | 3.12
311 | Chris Kaman | C | POR | 74 | 1547 | 3.11
312 | Larry Sanders | C | MIL | 27 | 567 | 3.1
313 | Derrick Favors | PF | UTA | 74 | 3604 | 3.08
314 | Amar'e Stoudemire | PF | MUL | 59 | 1357 | 3.07
315 | Dwight Howard | C | HOU | 41 | 1447 | 3.07
316 | Ryan Anderson | PF | NOP | 61 | 1647 | 3.05
317 | Brandon Davies | PF | MUL | 27 | 632 | 3.04
318 | Drew Gooden | PF | WAS | 51 | 1132 | 3
319 | C.J. Miles | SG | IND | 70 | 1498 | 2.96
320 | Cole Aldrich | C | NYK | 61 | 1610 | 2.94
321 | Omer Asik | C | NOP | 76 | 2318 | 2.88
322 | Elton Brand | PF | ATL | 36 | 634 | 2.84
323 | Trevor Booker | PF | UTA | 79 | 2773 | 2.84
324 | Shawne Williams | SF | MUL | 63 | 1436 | 2.83
325 | Brook Lopez | C | BRK | 72 | 1577 | 2.83
326 | Dante Cunningham | PF | NOP | 66 | 1426 | 2.83
327 | Udonis Haslem | PF | MIA | 62 | 1308 | 2.8
328 | Chris Andersen | C | MIA | 60 | 1140 | 2.77
329 | Cory Jefferson | PF | BRK | 50 | 630 | 2.77
330 | Robbie Hummel | SF | MIN | 45 | 1067 | 2.69
331 | Anthony Tolliver | PF | MUL | 76 | 1801 | 2.66
332 | Aron Baynes | C | SAS | 70 | 1050 | 2.64
333 | Jon Leuer | PF | MEM | 63 | 1058 | 2.62
334 | Kendrick Perkins | C | MUL | 68 | 1380 | 2.61
335 | Danny Granger | SF | MIA | 30 | 510 | 2.6
336 | Cody Zeller | C | CHO | 62 | 2716 | 2.6
337 | Anderson Varejao | C | CLE | 26 | 764 | 2.56
338 | Joey Dorsey | PF | HOU | 69 | 904 | 2.54
339 | Timofey Mozgov | C | MUL | 81 | 2130 | 2.53
340 | Adreian Payne | PF | MUL | 32 | 960 | 2.52
341 | Marvin Williams | PF | CHO | 78 | 3760 | 2.52
342 | J.J. Hickson | C | DEN | 73 | 1445 | 2.43
343 | Michael Beasley | SF | MIA | 24 | 576 | 2.4
344 | Samuel Dalembert | C | NYK | 32 | 778 | 2.36
345 | Cleanthony Early | SF | NYK | 39 | 878 | 2.34
346 | Tyson Chandler | C | DAL | 75 | 2363 | 2.34
347 | Channing Frye | PF | ORL | 75 | 3030 | 2.27
348 | Thomas Robinson | PF | MUL | 54 | 1069 | 2.21
349 | Kris Humphries | PF | WAS | 64 | 1901 | 2.19
350 | Reggie Evans | PF | SAC | 47 | 874 | 2.16
351 | Mitch McGary | PF | OKC | 32 | 624 | 2.11
352 | Tristan Thompson | PF | CLE | 82 | 1993 | 2.1
353 | Andre Drummond | C | DET | 82 | 1788 | 2.07
354 | Carl Landry | PF | SAC | 70 | 1127 | 2.06
355 | Henry Sims | C | PHI | 73 | 2219 | 2.04
356 | Kosta Koufos | C | MEM | 81 | 1499 | 2.03
357 | Serge Ibaka | PF | OKC | 64 | 2682 | 2
358 | Andrew Nicholson | PF | ORL | 40 | 600 | 1.98
359 | Luke Babbitt | SF | NOP | 63 | 775 | 1.8
360 | Jonas Valanciunas | C | TOR | 80 | 2128 | 1.58
361 | Jason Maxiell | PF | CHO | 61 | 732 | 1.54
362 | Ian Mahinmi | C | IND | 61 | 1208 | 1.45
363 | Charlie Villanueva | PF | DAL | 64 | 838 | 1.37
364 | Enes Kanter | C | MUL | 75 | 3053 | 1.37
365 | Miles Plumlee | C | MUL | 73 | 1321 | 1.33
366 | Maurice Harkless | SF | ORL | 45 | 522 | 1.28
367 | DeAndre Jordan | C | LAC | 82 | 3206 | 1.26
368 | Festus Ezeli | C | GSW | 46 | 529 | 1.24
369 | Alex Len | C | PHO | 69 | 1663 | 0.97
370 | Hassan Whiteside | C | MIA | 48 | 1099 | -0.99
371 | Dewayne Dedmon | C | ORL | 59 | 637 | -1.5

Re: New stat - NBA Passer Rating

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 3:25 pm
by Barncore
Nice work.
Is "hockey assist" data available? It could be worth including that data in some way too.

Re: New stat - NBA Passer Rating

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 4:07 pm
by humanhighlightreel
Barncore wrote:Nice work.
Is "hockey assist" data available? It could be worth including that data in some way too.
It is, and my first iteration of the stat included it. However, I was finding a hard time determining an appropriate value for a hockey assist (relative to an assist or turnover). I chose to eliminate the data to make the stat more precise, but it was certainly a tradeoff.

Re: New stat - NBA Passer Rating

Posted: Mon May 25, 2015 5:07 pm
by Crow
Hey. Moving in right direction, mostly imo.

"the value of a players assists is equal to the points their assists generated, less the opportunity cost of those possessions." That is the value of the assisted plays over average expected but how much of the credit belongs to the passer vs the guy who got in position to score and did? That debate is important. Without sharing heavily with the scorer it makes PGs look like by far the most important players. Looking at expected value for that distance could provide some of the necessary information. Perhaps the specific additional value of being open, lightly or uncontested, should be split but probably the scorer deserves more of that value than the passer because he actually accomplished it while the passer recognized it (though he may have helped create it too thru his movement and leadership).

I'd like to see hockey assists included. What range of values did you consider? There probably isn't an exact right data driven answer from public databases but perhaps an average value could be found from Kirk Goldberry's expected value at every stage of a play dataset if he calculated it or would be willing to and share it. 1/3rd to 1/5th of the assist credit (after giving the scorer their fair credit for the greater than opportunity cost yield) seems like a decent starting point to me, if this data driven answer is not available.

Re: New stat - NBA Passer Rating

Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:06 am
by xkonk
I don't know that it would matter too much, but you do some mixing of per possession and per game. For example, in the first part of step 2 you have Pts created by assists equal to 18.2 (pts per game) - 1.056 (points per possession) * 7.8 (assists per game). Shouldn't that second part have some kind of pace correction, or some way to translate from per possession to per game?

Re: New stat - NBA Passer Rating

Posted: Wed May 27, 2015 12:15 am
by italia13calcio
Have you thought about using PPP on a team basis?

Re: New stat - NBA Passer Rating

Posted: Mon Jun 01, 2015 7:22 pm
by Crow
For top 10 - 20 most used lineups in league how does the cumulative total of this Passer Rating for the 5 men correlate to offensive efficiency?

What is the average rating by position and for all players?