APBRmetrics

After looking through a few of the stickied suggestion threads, I was wondering if anyone could suggest any work that has been done on player progression, whether it be by age or year in the league. Was more interested in seeing how players progressed efficiency wise towards the beginning of their careers in years leading up to their prime.

if you look at players who played in the league at the age of 30, starting in say 1985-86 and up and through 2014-15, and look at their annual pts/0ptposs (points scored per zero point team possession personally responsible for, a measure of offensive efficiency) by age, this is what you'd see:

age--pts/0ptposs--pts/40
22--------1.87-------17.7
23--------1.94-------17.7
24--------1.98-------17.9
25--------2.01-------17.8
26--------2.03-------17.8
27--------2.03-------17.7
28--------2.03-------17.1
29--------2.00-------16.7
30--------1.97-------16.1

this indicates that a player's prime years for offensive efficiency is the age range of 26-28, but for scoring the age range of 24-26...

the thread in short list worth reading group was mislabeled. Sorry.

Here is one aging curve thread viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8308&hilit=aging+curve

14 pages of posts you can wade thru search.php?keywords=aging+curve&terms=a ... mit=Search

or re-do to sort as threads or just search aging instead of aging curve.

I wrote this, looking at the affect of postseason experience and veterans on a players progression in his early years:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/0 ... n-the-nba/

Also a follow up looking at which coaches have been associated with the most player progression:

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/0 ... g-players/

I interpret the first article (carefully done) as indicating the impact of post season and vet teammates is small. Agree?

The second article ranks but does not reveal how much estimated difference separates top from middle and low for the impact of coaches and teams. The impacts are at the end are indicated to be small / not statistically significant and until told otherwise I am guessing not wildly different. Correct me if a different impression is warranted on that last point.

Crow wrote:I interpret the first article (carefully done) as indicating the impact of post season and vet teammates is small. Agree?

The second article ranks but does not reveal how much estimated difference separates top from middle and low for the impact of coaches and teams. The impacts are at the end are indicated to be small / not statistically significant and until told otherwise I am guessing not wildly different. Correct me if a different impression is warranted on that last point.

Yup you're pretty much spot on. The only thing I would add is that while there is a significant (although, as you pointed out, small) correlation between progression and making the post season, the impact of vet teammates is not significant (although that may be due to the fact it is hard to quantify).

And yeah the coaching/team impacts are small - some are significant at the .05 but after adjusting for multiple comparisons they are not anymore. I just included the rankings for fun, and because they did line up fairly well with intuition.