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Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:33 pm
by Mike G
All stats from:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/
With 8% of the season completed, projecting minutes to date over the rest of the season, rookies would end up with 56 eWins total:
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
9.4 Karl-A Towns Min 28 .514 21.4 11.6 1.8 4.9 .3 2.1 3.9 1.96
6.8 K Porzingis NYK 24 .483 18.3 12.4 1.1 6.1 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.66
6.1 Jahlil Okafor Phl 34 .549 21.3 6.0 1.3 3.4 .4 3.2 1.2 1.05
4.2 Nemanja Bjelica Min 29 .567 10.4 9.0 3.5 3.8 1.0 1.7 .5 .87
4.1 T.J. McConnell Phl 29 .516 6.8 5.9 8.3 2.5 2.1 3.1 .6 .83
3.6 W Cauley-Stein Sac 22 .671 11.4 9.4 .8 4.6 1.8 1.4 1.8 .97
2.7 Jerian Grant NYK 22 .485 10.9 4.0 6.2 3.9 1.5 2.2 .0 .72
2.5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 25 .471 12.2 4.4 3.6 2.4 1.7 2.2 .2 .61
2.1 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 31 .388 12.6 4.5 6.3 3.2 1.6 6.4 .8 .42
1.9 R H-Jefferson Brk 18 .481 6.5 9.3 2.1 2.9 2.4 1.6 .8 .62
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
1.6 Myles Turner Ind 18 .542 13.1 5.7 .3 4.3 .9 1.2 2.2 .61
1.4 Justise Winslow Mia 28 .510 10.1 6.0 1.7 3.2 .7 1.6 .2 .30
1.2 Montrezl Harrell Hou 11 .686 15.6 5.7 .4 3.7 .4 1.3 .8 .67
1.1 Frank Kaminsky Cha 10 .579 12.2 3.7 3.1 1.6 .5 .0 .0 .67
1.1 Richaun Holmes Phl 12 .568 11.3 5.8 1.1 3.5 .4 .9 1.7 .53
1.1 Raul Neto Uta 18 .409 10.1 3.0 3.6 2.0 1.7 2.0 .3 .35
0.8 Nikola Jokic Den 16 .500 11.5 7.6 .8 2.8 .4 2.4 .8 .36
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:50 pm
by Dr Positivity
This rookie class is superb
Winslow's defense to me is WTF? for a 19 year old rookie. 86.7 on court DRTG and has visibly dominated individual matchups like when Kawhi and Tony eat an opponent. Normally I would say drafting wings for defense alone is dangerous because many cannot physically dominate NBA like they do college, and then they just become 8th men who can't dribble or shoot well enough, but is he a defensive genius/freak?
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 12:02 am
by Mike G
It's looking like 29 eW in the East and 27 in the West. East Conf. always gets more rookie production, but this year it's close.
By position:
C 23.5 - Towns, Okafor, Cauley-Stein, Turner, Kaminsky, Jokic, Marjanovic
PF 14.8 - Porzingis, Bjelica, Harrell, Holmes, Mickey, Portis
PG 12.8 - McConnell, Grant, Russell, Mudiay, Neto
SF 4.0 - Hollis-Jefferson, Winslow, S Johnson
SG 0.9 - Booker,
Rookie minutes always increase as the season progresses, so these numbers will all rise.
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2015 2:23 pm
by Mike G
Karl-Anthony Towns has quite the skills package. Noticing his 7-8 FT shooting, I wondered how other 7-foot rookies have fared. Turns out, Towns is among the top (5) 7'+ rookies in a bunch of categories, in the 3-pt era.
Code: Select all
PER rookies DReb% Blk%
26.3 Robinson '90 28.8 Sabonis '96 10.6 Bol '86
24.7 Sabonis '96 28.5 Gobert '14 9.2 Eaton '83
22.9 Shaq '93 27.1 Shaq '93 8.4 Towns '16
21.9 Towns '16 27.0 Towns '16 7.9 Ostertag '96
21.1 Olajuwon '85 26.1 Nurkic '15 7.9 McIlvaine '95
TO% rookies Usg% WS/48
_7.8 S Hunter '02 27.1 Sampson '84 .241 Robinson '90
_9.7 Vucevic '12 27.0 Shaq '93 .233 Sabonis '96
10.2 Hibbert '09 26.6 Robinson '90 .198 Towns '16
10.4 Wennington '86 26.5 Ewing '86 .189 Ilgauskas '98
10.6 Towns '16 25.5 Sabonis '96 .176 Yao '03
. 23.8 Towns '16
DBPM rookies BPM FT%
6.4 Bol '86 6.5 Robinson '90 .889 Towns '16
5.5 Eaton '83 5.6 Sabonis '96 .841 Yi Jianlian '08
4.4 Towns '16 4.0 Towns '16 .824 Bargnani '07
3.8 Robinson '90 3.7 Shaq '93 .811 Olynyk '14
3.8 Bowie '85 3.6 Bowie '85 .811 Yao '03
. 3.4 Olajuwon '85
Towns is 16/18 on FT, but it's not a fluke. He hit over 80% in one college season.
Note that his BPM < DBPM, with OBPM = -0.4
Of the top 100 WS seasons by 7' rookies, he's 38th in TS% (.556) and 28th in Ast%
http://bkref.com/tiny/wXkuu
Low marks: 54th in OReb% (9.9), last in Stl% (1 so far). These ranks include seasons with <200 minutes.
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2015 9:37 pm
by Crow
Too early to conclude anything but Russell having a lot of difficulty at Staples, much better on road. Randle strongly the opposite.
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 4:09 pm
by Mike G
Just 6 rookies have had a debut season with PER>20, WS/48>.180, and BPM>3.5
... since 1978, in at least 200 minutes:
Code: Select all
player yr age PER WS/48 BPM xyz
Magic 1980 20 20.6 .180 5.5 3.09
Bird 1980 23 20.5 .182 5.3 3.07
Jordan 1985 21 25.8 .213 8.2 3.88
Robinson 1990 24 26.3 .241 6.5 3.89
Sabonis 1996 31 24.7 .233 5.6 3.65
Duncan 1998 21 22.6 .192 5.5 3.29
Towns 2016 20 22.1 .197 4.0 3.12
xyz = ((PER-5)*ws/48*(BPM+5)^(1/3)
Besides the old guys, DRob and Sabo, only Jordan was clearly better as a rookie.
Chris Paul '06 just misses, with WS/48 = .178
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 10:54 pm
by Dr Positivity
Rookies over 50 MP in VEDS per minute
Code: Select all
Nemanja Bjelica MIN 0.761
Frank Kaminsky CHA 0.659
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 0.652
Justin Anderson DAL 0.586
Willie Cauley-Stein SAC 0.567
Lamar Patterson ATL 0.541
Richaun Holmes PHI 0.494
Myles Turner IND 0.484
Kristaps Porzingis NYK 0.48
Montrezl Harrell HOU 0.463
Justise Winslow MIA 0.418
Nikola Jokic DEN 0.411
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson BKN 0.393
Jerian Grant NYK 0.374
Raul Neto UTA 0.335
Stanley Johnson DET 0.293
T.J. McConnell PHI 0.235
Jahlil Okafor PHI 0.231
Marcelo Huertas LAL 0.197
D'Angelo Russell LAL 0.194
Christian Wood PHI 0.164
Rashad Vaughn MIL 0.095
Emmanuel Mudiay DEN 0.082
Mario Hezonja ORL 0.063
Trey Lyles UTA -0.003
VEDS per game
Code: Select all
Nemanja Bjelica MIN 22.387
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.97
Willie Cauley-Stein SAC 12.019
Justise Winslow MIA 11.87
Kristaps Porzingis NYK 11.853
Josh Richardson MIA 8.556
Jerian Grant NYK 8.009
Jahlil Okafor PHI 7.801
Larry Nance Jr. LAL 7.745
Myles Turner IND 7.695
Richaun Holmes PHI 7.114
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson BKN 6.874
Lamar Patterson ATL 6.872
T.J. McConnell PHI 6.817
Nikola Jokic DEN 6.542
Stanley Johnson DET 6.243
Frank Kaminsky CHA 5.93
Jordan Mickey BOS 5.8
Raul Neto UTA 5.695
Devin Booker PHX 5.118
Montrezl Harrell HOU 5.049
D'Angelo Russell LAL 4.862
Bobby Portis CHI 4.808
R.J. Hunter BOS 4.714
Justin Anderson DAL 4.69
Emmanuel Mudiay DEN 2.521
Marcelo Huertas LAL 2.499
Kelly Oubre WAS 1.43
Boban Marjanovic SAS 1.269
Christian Wood PHI 1.267
Salah Mejri DAL 1.119
Tibor Pleiss UTA 1.078
Mario Hezonja ORL 0.952
Rashad Vaughn MIL 0.808
Sam Dekker HOU 0.744
Walter Tavares ATL 0.479
Trey Lyles UTA -0.026
Erick Green DEN -0.16
Pat Connaughton POR -0.229
Cameron Payne OKC -0.448
Luis Montero POR -0.625
Joseph Young IND -1.001
Norman Powell TOR -1.115
Terry Rozier BOS -3.667
Delon Wright TOR -4.172
Tyus Jones MIN -4.227
Bjelica's number is 21st in the whole NBA in VEDS per game, Towns is 47th. If Bjelica's 3pt is for real what a drool worthy FC going forward, with Towns as the future defender and interior scorer superstar and Bjelica as the perfect compliment opening up space for him. Winslow, Cauley-Stein and Porzingis have been asked to play a lot of minutes and overall done admirably. Mudiay has a lot of buzz right now but his numbers are at least the moment terrible, as a high usage player at 83 ORTG. His last 2 games have been his best though. Okafor is putting up the worst kind of 20ppg as it gets (inefficient, poor D and non floor spacing), with that and Noel and Stauskas having bad seasons and no Covington, the 76ers have no liferaft atm. Encouraging starts by three under the radar lower picks in Patterson, Holmes and Harrell
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2015 1:05 pm
by Mike G
At .133 of the season, some cross-metric comparisons. Ranked by minutes, rookies w >70 min.
Code: Select all
rookies '15-16 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e484 e82 ws82
Jahlil Okafor Phl 34 16.0 .008 -3.5 1.12 6.4 .5
Emmanuel Mudiay Den 31 8.3 -.108 -5.3 .72 3.7 -5.7
T.J. McConnell Phl 30 13.7 .057 -1.2 .69 3.5 2.9
Karl-Anthony Towns Min 29 20.9 .148 1.0 1.84 9.0 7.3
Kristaps Porzingis NYK 25 18.0 .126 -1.4 1.62 7.0 5.5
Nemanja Bjelica Min 27 11.8 .112 3.3 .81 3.7 5.2
Justise Winslow Mia 29 8.1 .066 -0.1 .34 1.6 3.2
D'Angelo Russell LAL 25 12.4 .011 -1.3 .78 3.3 .5
Jerian Grant NYK 21 10.9 .064 -2.7 .61 2.1 2.3
Stanley Johnson Det 20 8.6 .025 -2.6 .56 1.9 .9
rookies '15-16 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e484 e82 ws82
Willie Cauley-Stein Sac 20 16.2 .149 2.4 1.08 3.6 5.0
Rondae H-Jefferson Brk 19 13.2 .069 0.5 .79 2.6 2.3
Raul Neto Uta 17 7.0 .018 -2.8 .34 1.0 .5
Mario Hezonja Orl 15 5.0 -.035 -6.5 -.08 -.2 -.9
Nikola Jokic Den 14 18.0 .124 0.5 .96 2.0 2.6
Myles Turner Ind 16 13.8 .116 -2.7 .71 1.4 2.3
Larry Nance Jr. LAL 18 10.2 .057 -5.0 .30 .6 1.1
Frank Kaminsky Cha 12 11.2 .074 -1.1 .50 .9 1.3
Montrezl Harrell Hou 11 17.6 .130 -3.0 .75 1.3 2.2
Richaun Holmes Phl 14 15.3 .105 0.3 .64 1.0 1.6
rookies '15-16 tm mpg PER WS/48 BPM e484 e82 ws82
Marcelo Huertas LAL 13 11.5 .022 -3.3 .51 .7 .3
Lamar Patterson Atl 13 6.8 .061 -4.1 .03 .0 .7
Christian Wood Phl 10 19.7 .145 -1.9 1.14 1.5 1.9
Trey Lyles Uta 9 2.5 -.073 -7.9 .23 .3 -1.0
Justin Anderson Dal 7 13.8 .079 -2.2 .67 .8 .9
R.J. Hunter Bos 12 3.2 .018 -5.9 .01 .0 .2
all rookies NBA 12.0 .050 -2.2 .73 61.3 41.9
Okafor is either very good, or he's very, very bad.
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:31 pm
by Statman
Mike G wrote:
[/code]Okafor is either very good, or he's very, very bad.
Funny, going into last night, his HnI was 100, which is completely average.
He has 0 WAR (my WAR), but that's because Philly hasn't won a game yet.
Philly outscored by 149 w/ Okafor on the court, by far the worst in the NBA.
Of course, Wiggins & Lavine were by far the worst last season in overall minus, & fans tell me Wiggins is a small step away from being a superstar.
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Mon Nov 23, 2015 4:54 pm
by Mike G
At .163 of the season, rookies now project to 63 eWins on the season.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
9.5 Karl-Anthony Towns Min 29 .570 21.1 13.1 1.4 .9 2.9 3.0 1.91
7.5 Kristaps Porzingis NYK 26 .512 19.9 12.3 1.1 1.0 2.4 2.1 1.69
5.7 Jahlil Okafor Phl 33 .485 19.3 7.9 1.1 .3 3.3 1.8 1.01
4.1 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 30 .399 14.4 4.6 7.3 1.4 5.2 1.1 .80
3.6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 26 .480 14.1 5.6 3.9 1.3 2.4 .4 .81
3.5 Nikola Jokic Den 16 .573 15.4 10.6 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.0 1.35
3.3 T.J. McConnell Phl 29 .544 9.0 6.0 6.3 1.5 3.5 .5 .67
3.1 Wi Cauley-Stein Sac 19 .607 9.5 10.5 .5 1.5 1.6 2.0 .94
3.1 Nemanja Bjelica Min 27 .554 9.9 7.8 2.8 .7 1.2 .5 .75
3.1 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk 21 .511 8.5 9.9 2.4 2.7 2.3 .7 .85
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast Stl TO Blk e484
2.0 Jerian Grant NYK 20 .471 11.5 3.9 5.2 1.0 2.2 .0 .61
1.8 Stanley Johnson Det 20 .439 13.1 6.5 1.9 1.0 2.1 .0 .53
1.6 Frank Kaminsky Cha 13 .554 11.4 4.8 2.6 1.1 .6 1.3 .76
1.4 Justise Winslow Mia 28 .508 10.4 5.9 1.8 .8 2.3 .2 .30
1.3 Christian Wood Phl 9 .494 13.8 8.5 .7 1.3 .7 1.6 1.05
1.3 Myles Turner Ind 16 .570 14.7 5.9 .3 .8 1.6 1.9 .76
1.1 Raul Neto Uta 17 .421 9.5 2.6 5.3 2.2 2.6 .2 .38
0.9 Devin Booker Phx 10 .653 17.5 3.0 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.0 .72
0.9 Montrezl Harrell Hou 10 .658 13.5 5.6 .5 .8 2.0 1.3 .56
0.8 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .537 12.2 5.1 1.0 .3 1.0 2.0 .64
West now in front, 32-31.
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Sun Nov 29, 2015 12:40 pm
by Mike G
While it seems certain this year's crop of rookies is better than last year's, we can speculate on
how much better. Are they already doing more than current 2nd-year players?
Totals and averages for: last year's rookies thru the whole season, the same group this year; and current rookies.
Code: Select all
season yr Min mpg PER WS/48 WS BPM VORP
2014-15 1 51506 17.5 11.2 .045 48.6 -2.44 -5.71
2015-16 2 11096 18.5 13.3 .075 17.4 -1.41 1.64
2015-16 1 8083 16.1 12.1 .051 8.6 -2.13 -.26
Minutes and per-minute rates will certainly pick up during the season, for both classes.
mpg are minutes per appearance, i.e. (all Min)/(all G)
The season is just about 1/5 completed. I'd guess rookies get about twice as many total minutes in the final 1/5.
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2015 8:06 pm
by Mike G
At .224 of this season, rookies are on pace for 59 eWins. This is a bit of a slowdown in 2 weeks, and it seems to be in the West.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
8.28 Kris Porzingis NYK 28 .517 19.2 11.7 1.2 4.0 .9 2.3 2.6 1.74
8.24 Karl-A Towns Min 27 .549 19.5 12.1 1.1 3.7 1.0 2.7 2.9 1.77
6.0 Jahlil Okafor Phl 33 .483 19.3 8.3 1.3 3.2 .4 3.2 1.8 1.13
3.5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 28 .476 13.5 5.4 3.7 2.2 1.3 2.4 .3 .75
3.5 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 30 .379 13.3 4.2 6.6 2.7 1.3 4.7 .9 .68
3.4 Nikola Jokic Den 17 .582 16.0 9.6 1.4 3.6 1.5 2.1 1.0 1.26
3.4 T.J. McConnell Phl 27 .533 9.3 5.6 6.6 2.6 1.7 3.3 .5 .74
3.4 R H-Jefferson Brk 22 .527 8.8 10.0 2.0 3.5 2.4 1.9 .7 .89
2.6 Nemanja Bjelica Min 26 .571 10.0 7.6 2.7 4.4 .7 1.0 .6 .74
2.4 W Cauley-Stein Sac 19 .575 8.4 9.4 .5 4.4 1.2 1.3 2.0 .76
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
2.1 Stanley Johnson Det 21 .456 13.9 6.2 1.7 3.8 1.1 2.1 .2 .59
1.5 Jerian Grant NYK 18 .489 11.6 3.5 4.8 3.0 .8 2.4 .1 .50
1.4 Justise Winslow Mia 29 .504 9.5 6.2 2.0 3.3 .7 2.0 .2 .30
1.3 Raul Neto Uta 18 .407 8.9 2.7 5.3 3.6 2.2 2.1 .1 .43
1.3 Frank Kaminsky Cha 15 .521 11.0 4.4 1.9 2.5 .7 .7 1.0 .52
0.8 Myles Turner Ind 16 .570 13.9 5.5 .3 4.0 .8 1.5 1.8 .67
0.8 Christian Wood Phl 9 .494 12.9 7.8 .7 2.6 1.2 .6 1.5 .94
0.8 Devin Booker Phx 13 .651 14.3 2.8 1.1 3.5 1.0 1.3 .5 .46
0.7 Richaun Holmes Phl 14 .548 11.8 4.7 .7 3.8 .2 1.1 2.2 .54
0.6 Montrezl Harrell Hou 10 .675 12.7 5.4 .4 4.5 .6 1.8 1.1 .46
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Tue Dec 08, 2015 9:23 pm
by Mike G
At .254 of the season, rookies project to total ~58 eWins.
These top 2 look awfully similar in production.
Code: Select all
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
8.8 Karl-Anthony Towns Min 28 .571 20.2 11.9 1.3 4.0 .9 2.8 2.8 1.86
8.6 Kristaps Porzingis NYK 28 .543 20.3 11.1 1.2 4.0 .9 2.5 2.6 1.80
5.4 Jahlil Okafor Phl 33 .474 18.4 8.1 1.2 3.1 .3 3.2 1.7 1.08
3.4 Emmanuel Mudiay Den 30 .376 12.6 4.3 6.9 2.6 1.3 4.8 .9 .67
3.3 Nikola Jokic Den 17 .581 16.0 9.9 1.4 3.5 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.29
3.3 D'Angelo Russell LAL 27 .478 13.7 5.6 3.7 2.2 1.3 2.9 .2 .71
3.2 T.J. McConnell Phl 27 .512 9.0 5.8 6.4 2.5 1.7 3.2 .4 .71
2.9 R Hollis-Jefferson Brk 22 .516 8.4 9.8 1.9 3.5 2.3 1.8 .6 .81
2.4 Nemanja Bjelica Min 25 .587 10.0 7.8 2.6 4.3 .6 1.1 .5 .73
2.4 W Cauley-Stein Sac 19 .589 8.6 9.3 .6 4.5 1.1 1.3 2.2 .83
e82 per36 rates tm Min Eff% Sco Reb Ast PF Stl TO Blk e484
2.0 Stanley Johnson Det 22 .445 13.1 5.9 1.7 3.6 1.0 1.9 .2 .55
1.4 Raul Neto Uta 18 .445 10.0 3.0 5.0 3.7 2.1 2.4 .1 .47
1.3 Jerian Grant NYK 18 .483 11.1 3.6 4.8 3.0 .8 2.6 .1 .44
1.1 Frank Kaminsky Cha 16 .508 10.5 4.5 1.8 2.7 .6 .9 .7 .43
1.0 Devin Booker Phx 14 .641 14.3 2.9 1.6 3.2 1.0 1.3 .4 .52
0.8 Justise Winslow Mia 29 .476 8.3 6.0 1.8 3.5 .8 2.0 .2 .16
0.8 Myles Turner Ind 16 .570 13.4 5.5 .3 4.0 .8 1.5 1.8 .66
0.7 Christian Wood Phl 9 .494 12.7 7.8 .7 2.6 1.2 .6 1.5 .94
0.7 Boban Marjanovic SAS 5 .600 23.5 10.2 1.6 6.3 1.1 3.2 .5 1.66
0.7 Richaun Holmes Phl 15 .563 11.6 5.2 .6 4.3 .2 1.4 2.0 .49
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2015 3:04 am
by Statman
I actually just ran my WAR rankings - here's how my results so far compare to what you have, just for fun:
Code: Select all
+------+---------+-------------------------+-----+---------+------+--------+------+-----+------+
| Rank | eWinRnk | Player | Tm | WARpace | Rank | WAR/48 | Rank | HnI | Rank |
+------+---------+-------------------------+-----+---------+------+--------+------+-----+------+
| 1 | 2 | Kristaps Porzingis | NYK | 8.99 | 36 | 15.45 | 36 | 121 | 31 |
| 2 | 1 | Karl-Anthony Towns | MIN | 7.86 | 45 | 13.72 | 44 | 123 | 27 |
| 3 | 5 | Nikola Jokic | DEN | 3.07 | 140 | 9.72 | 86 | 105 | 89 |
| 4 | 9 | Nemanja Bjelica | MIN | 2.17 | 173 | 5.33 | 175 | 97 | 156 |
| 5 | 8 | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | BRK | 1.53 | 196 | 3.51 | 208 | 94 | 184 |
| 6 | 10 | Willie Cauley-Stein | SAC | 1.26 | 208 | 3.53 | 207 | 92 | 200 |
| 7 | 15 | Devin Booker | PHO | 1.18 | 216 | 4.96 | 183 | 96 | 165 |
| 8 | 16 | Justise Winslow | MIA | 1.10 | 217 | 1.84 | 237 | 84 | 248 |
| 9 | 6 | D'Angelo Russell | LAL | 1.08 | 220 | 1.89 | 235 | 89 | 221 |
| 10 | 14 | Frank Kaminsky | CHO | 0.81 | 231 | 2.61 | 225 | 87 | 231 |
| 11 | 19 | Boban Marjanovic | SAS | 0.77 | 237 | 14.82 | | 117 | |
| 12 | 7 | T.J. McConnell | PHI | 0.76 | 239 | 1.35 | 250 | 96 | 164 |
| 13 | 17 | Myles Turner | IND | 0.72 | 244 | 5.19 | | 93 | |
| 14 | 4 | Emmanuel Mudiay | DEN | 0.68 | 247 | 1.08 | 255 | 83 | 261 |
| 15 | 3 | Jahlil Okafor | PHI | 0.61 | 253 | 0.98 | 257 | 91 | 204 |
| 16 | 13 | Jerian Grant | NYK | 0.61 | 254 | 1.63 | 243 | 84 | 251 |
| 17 | 11 | Stanley Johnson | DET | 0.58 | 256 | 1.31 | 252 | 83 | 259 |
| 18 | | Jonathon Simmons | SAS | 0.43 | 268 | 4.36 | | 91 | |
| 19 | | Montrezl Harrell | HOU | 0.39 | 273 | 2.55 | 227 | 86 | 236 |
| 20 | | Marcelo Huertas | LAL | 0.34 | 274 | 2.74 | | 93 | |
| 21 | | Bobby Portis | CHI | 0.26 | 277 | 10.49 | | 102 | |
| 22 | 12 | Raul Neto | UTA | 0.19 | 282 | 0.53 | 262 | 81 | 264 |
| 23 | | Willie Reed | BRK | 0.15 | 291 | 6.74 | | 107 | |
| 24 | | Cliff Alexander | POR | 0.14 | 292 | 5.06 | | 96 | |
| 25 | 20 | Richaun Holmes | PHI | 0.14 | 293 | 0.83 | 259 | 90 | 219 |
| 26 | 18 | Christian Wood | PHI | 0.12 | 296 | 1.26 | | 95 | |
+------+---------+-------------------------+-----+---------+------+--------+------+-----+------+
The three metrics on the right are the three general ones I throw out there all the time. Wins Above Replacement over an 82 game schedule, WAR if the guy played EVERY available minute of the season at the current WAR rate (WAR/48, 8.2 would be league average), and Hoops Nerd Impact - a single number rating with 100 being league average.
The rankings are the right are NBA rankings - 430 players ranked in WAR, 317 in WAR/48 & HnI (dropping off players < than 142 minutes).
The Sixers are underrated overall in terms of WAR - since I convert current exact team win % over 82 games. They'll win more than 4 games. But, while eWins has Okafor as a strong #3 overall - my WAR currently has him second to TJ McConnell on his own team. In HnI (my per minute production rating not tied to team wins but team efficiencies) among >142 minute rookies - Okafor is 9th, TJ McConnell 5th.
In terms of the rank, looks like Okafor & Mudiay are the biggest outliers that eWins favors more - Booker & Winslow & Bjelica my WAR favors more. Marjanovic also, but his minutes are still pretty low.
One may think my ratings are big man heavy by the rankings above - but they are not in general, it's just how this group of players worked out.
It would make sense big men in general should be better out the gate - since college to NBA conversions see big efficiency issues on high usage guys their first year, with big improvements the following years (tied to how young they are obviously). 2pt usage & efficiency translates better than three or FT from college to pro, with smaller career curve peak than the latter two. Rebounding & shot blocks translate best 1st year, with no real career curve improvement per minute on average.
Now, while the big's (especially low usage ones) tend to have a smaller career peak peak from their rookie year - the better ones improve in playing time quite a bit, as they improve & their foul rate drops.
Re: Rookies 2015-16
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2015 12:36 pm
by Mike G
... looks like Okafor & Mudiay are the biggest outliers that eWins favors more ...
Okafor has hit just 38% of his shots since you said he was 'average' in your system. Mudiay has shot badly all year.
My interactive spreadsheet isn't giving a normal strong relationship between TS% and team wins, so these guys are getting the benefit of that in eWins. I suspect the Warriors' ridiculous shooting is messing with things, and most likely it evens out before long.
Even so, we see a couple of teams that really need what these guys bring.
Saying the Nuggets' guard corps is shaky would be an understatement. Their only other distributor, Jameer Nelson, has shot almost as badly as Mudiay (.427 v .376), while the rookie has just been more productive in Reb, Ast, Stl, and even scoring. Nelson hasn't historically been an ironman, and he's 33. He's been waived, traded for Nate Robinson ...
Okafor is the only Sixer with >14.5 FGA/100 (23.8) and >.440 FG%
He and Noel are their best rebounders. He and J Grant are their shotblockers -- Noel has abdicated.
McConnell and Pressey aren't the greatest PG. Okafor is unassisted on 61% of his FG. He might not help a great team, but this team is severely lacking.