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Not to beat a dead horse, I'm just more interested in what this group thinks, as opposed to run of the mill sports anchors and talking heads. What does Golden State have to do to not only get back in their groove, but how can they stop OKC at this point, who seems to have discovered a 'death lineup' of their own ? Is Steph still hurt ? This series is proving what I know I for one have long thought, and that is that Westbrook is a far superior all-around player to Steph. Steph is a far superior shooter, but lacks alot of what Westbrook has. Draymond's been exposed. This series has given the Warriors matchup problems that they hadn't encountered all year. Thoughts ?

Roberson has more than doubled his per game scoring and steals -- nearly doubled his rebounds, assists, and blocks -- from the regular season to this series. Should he revert to form, OKC gives up 5.7 pts, 2.9 reb, .6 ast, 1 stl, half a block. That all accounts for just about the Thunder MOV in the series.

Of course, this may be the series in which he became a star. If so, the Dubs have to come up with something equivalent.
Bogut, Ezeli, Speights, and Varajao total 19 pts, 11 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.5 blk per game, playing just 38 total mpg.
They're shooting .588 TS% as a group, .046 above the team total.

"Are the ______ done?" is a cliche question that the talking heads usually ask. Another one is "Do the ________ have a chance to beat the _________?" These are silly questions. No team is ever done until they are eliminated, and every team always has a chance to beat the other in a game or series. Even the 76ers would have a chance to beat the Warriors in a seven game series. Although probability of the 76ers beating the warriors in a seven game series would be extremely close to zero, it would not be equal to zero. The more series the 76ers were given against the Warriors, the greater the probability that they would eventually win one. As the quantity of series between the 76ers and Warriors approaches infinity, the probability that the 76ers would win at least one series would approach 100%.

Better questions to ask are "What is the probability that the ________ will come back and win the series?" and "What is the probability that the ________ will beat the __________?"

The entire idea behind asking 'are they done?', is intentional, as any one of us have probably heard it phrased this way 30× since their Gm 4 beatdown. Unlike you, I don't have this constant burning desire to prove I'm the smartest guy in the room, so I'm not looking for the actual Win probabilities. Plenty of sites have those numbers at my disposal. I'm 32, I've witnessed incredible comebacks in all four major American sports arenas, it's obvious "it ain't over 'til it's over.", I was more interested into what these fine gentleman had to offer, as the answers would come in the form we here at apbrmetrics enjoy and adore. Numbers. What aren't GS doing that they were all year and what they had working vs. OKC earlier in the year, why isn't it working now? What clicked for OKC. Do they think they'll revert back to earlier season form if the series tightens up a bit ? That's what I'm looking for. Not someone trying to tell me how I should be posing a question in the first place. It's insulting. I conveyed a thought, Mike G, as always gave me his in-depth insight and seemed to understand me fine without me trying to impress him, or Crow, or J.E., or DSmok1 or anyone else with my knowledge of win expectancy/probability jargon.

The main thing the Warriors need to do is make more shots. I haven't looked at where on court in detail. But anywhere would help and it will probably take several places and people. I'd attack Westbrook pretty often including on switches even though he is trying and doing pretty well to attempt to tire him more. Draymond Green either has to hit more or pass better.

Another factor change needed is less fouling. Maybe back off everybody but Durant (and perhaps Ibaka) and make the Thunder beat you from long-range (or mid-range). Better D would be nice but the shot defense hasn't been bad, just not super. Not forcing enough turnovers recently either though. Attack the ball when Durant has it especially when Westbrook is off. Despite the call to back off, I'd probably pressure Russ full court til he got to top of key to tire a bit, run clock and maybe get ball out of his hands some.

Haven't studied lineup vs. lineup detail but pretty sure Kerr needs to make more changes. Probably too late. Most coaches don't change fast enough. Not believing much in the differences between average regular season results and specific playoff results. Mistakes can be made believing in small samples too much or too little. Many losing teams make one mistake or the other, though it is possible to read it right and still just get beat anyways despite the read.

http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/20 ... -warriors/
It's a rundown of the 9 times in NBA history that a team has come back from 1-3.

2015 NBA Playoffs: Houston Rockets over Los Angeles Clippers (Western Conference Semifinals)

Finally, there's the most recent example. If the Warriors do come back, it would be the first time in NBA history that there've been 3-1 comebacks two years in a row. A year removed from this comeback, it seems all the more improbable..

Is that logically true? Does a 3-game comeback last year make it less likely this year?


edit: The Dubs 4 best eFG%, all .100+ better than the team -- Ezeli, Bogut, Barnes, and Rush -- have taken <14% of the shots, while playing >19% of the minutes.

BasketDork wrote: I conveyed a thought, Mike G, as always gave me his in-depth insight and seemed to understand me fine without me trying to impress him, or Crow, or J.E., or DSmok1 or anyone else with my knowledge of win expectancy/probability jargon.

Win probability for the Warriors at this point: 0.178
Before the start of the series: 0.785

Anyhow, remember how the Rockets lost the two road games against the Clippers by 25 and 33 respectively and were down 1-3 after 4 games? They also looked "done" ...

Mike G wrote:Is that logically true? Does a 3-game comeback last year make it less likely this year?

Obviously not. That sounds like a typical gambler's fallacy.

Also, the Warriors started the series with having HCA. Not many teams which were down 1-3 and lost had that luxury.

This OKC team had the best total rebound differential of any team since 1984 at least, +8.4 Reb/G
http://bkref.com/tiny/BVYhB

They led the league in ORb% by a wide margin, at 31.1. Not sure how this stacks up against league avg (23.8), but by cutting into opponent DReb, they are also way ahead of anyone else in DReb differential -- despite being only an average DRb% team (76.0)

Here are OKC playoff opponents' RS Rb%, how much better or worse than average, and OKC expected and actual series Rb%Looks like vs the Mavs they did better than expected on OReb; against the Spurs they overachieved on DReb; vs the Dubs, well down on OReb but better on the D end.

Honestly, I do not get a good picture of what's actually happened. Here it is in straight total rebounds: Season avg (and opponent), per game advantage, expected matchup advantage, and actual rebounds/differential.Consistent overachievement on the boards, especially against SA (+2.5). And that's relative to an all-time great RS advantage.

Mike G wrote: edit: The Dubs 4 best eFG%, all .100+ better than the team -- Ezeli, Bogut, Barnes, and Rush -- have taken <14% of the shots, while playing >19% of the minutes.

Bogut and Speights combine for 29 points and 16 rebounds tonight. Bogut went 15 & 14, Speights had 14 pts in 8 minutes More contributions from role players took pressure off their big 3.

Their 4 centers combined to play 45.5 minutes -- just 2.5 min. w no C on the floor.
OKC ran centerless for 10+ minutes.

b-r.com has upgraded their odds of winning from 1/4 to 1/3 after game 5.
This presumably is based on SRS from the RS.

EDIT: Their 1000 simulations now has GS beating OKC 323 times. Earlier, they got 334.
The square root of .323 is .568, so without any HCA, the Dubs are likely to win either of the remaining 2; but not both.

Whatever else, it's a small sample. 1 in 3 isn't great, but it's also not a crazy long shot.

b-r.com now says GS has 68% chance in game 7.
That means they were .475 for last night's game.

Warriors now at 100% to complete their comeback from 1-3.
Up 2-0 in the Finals, a .963 chance to be done soon.

It looks like 4 teams have come back from a 3-1 deficit in a series and also gone on to win the Finals.
1968 - Bos/Phl/LA
1979 - Was/SA/Sea
1981 - Bos/Phl/Hou
1995 - Hou/Phx/NY

So, it's been a while.

Roberson has more than doubled his per game scoring and steals -- nearly doubled his rebounds, assists, and blocks -- from the regular season to this series. Should he revert to form, OKC gives up 5.7 pts, 2.9 reb, .6 ast, 1 stl, half a block.

And:Other than Reb and Blk, he did revert, with a Thud.
The last 3 games were lost by 7, 9, and 8; so another trey+steal may not have won any given game. But in 3 episodes, who knows?