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Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Sun Jun 12, 2016 8:32 pm
by Crow
One could take RPM estimates from end of regular season and thru end of playoffs (JE says later dated releases include playoff activity), minutes weight the values and derive an inferred RPM estimate for just the playoff minutes. I understand there could be objections to the technique but in lieu of producing a playoffs only RPM estimate, it is one way to go. I might do later. Average errors would be high but it might identify cases worthy of further study by other means.
Or one could choose to not to contemplate the potential clue about playoff impact.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 9:42 pm
by Crow
Looking for inferred RPM by this method (everyone might not like it but I wanted to check a few):
LBJ regular season +7.3 RPM, inferred playoff RPM using data from a few days ago +12.1
(assuming all change in currently reported RPM is due to the playoff data, not re-evaluation of the regular season value. this method might make the playoff value move more than it should if the re-evaluation of regular season was considered "proper")
Draymond regular season +7.0 RPM, inferred playoff RPM +9.9
Harden and Isiah Thomas barely changed. Westbrook changed up dramatically but the small sample and the extraordinary raw on /off for him and Christon in playoffs causes me to not want to use this value. Kyrie up from about +2 in regular season to about +3. Jimmy Butler +7 in regular season, inferred at +1.2 for playoffs, with complicating issues or not.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 10:46 pm
by Mike G
Interesting. Do you have team RPM?
BPM in playoffs tend to be greater than zero on avg. I wonder how they compare to inferred RPM.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:47 pm
by Crow
I don't have that right now; but if I do more with the data, it is possible.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 4:13 pm
by DSMok1
Mike G wrote:Interesting. Do you have team RPM?
BPM in playoffs tend to be greater than zero on avg. I wonder how they compare to inferred RPM.
That is because BPM calculates team strength based on the regular season BPMs. So rather than all teams summing to 0, the regular season BPMs of the actual players who play in the playoffs are summed up to estimate each team's theoretical strength. That is then used to develop the playoff "efficiency differential" for each team, based on their actual point differential and their opponents' theoretical strength.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 5:22 am
by shadow
I used the statsnba package to create playoff matchup files and EvanZ's guide to generate playoff RAPM from those files.
This is vanilla RAPM with a zero prior and doesn't include anything fancy (off/def splits, up by X affect, etc.). The range of the ratings is obviously a bit smaller than what you'd normally see in regular season RAPM due to the limited sample size, which keeps everyone closer to 0.
Ratings can be found here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... ng/pubhtml
LeBron finishes #1. GSW with 4 of the top 7 players.
statsnba -
https://github.com/ethanluoyc/statsnba- ... r/statsnba
RAPM Guide -
http://nbviewer.jupyter.org/gist/EvanZ/ ... eb14f28d58
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 5:30 am
by Crow
Great.
Wall #143
Hayward #179
Butler #205
Conventional hype... plenty of misses.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 11:52 am
by JoshEngleman
Interesting to see Butler so low. Per Mike G's stats, Butler led the Bulls in eWins for the series.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:42 pm
by Mike G
Thanks for noticing. Yet Butler's on-off numbers were pretty weak in 4 of 6 games.
In some blowouts, Bulls mop-up players did well against their Celtics counterparts. Butler therefore looks bad by comparision.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 10CHI.html
http://www.basketball-reference.com/box ... 10CHI.html
When you don't account for garbage time, and it's a small sample besides, it may be that RAPM is just not very meaningful.
Butler led the Bulls in Pts, Reb, Ast, and Stl; 1st or 2nd in WS and VORP.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:05 pm
by shadow
Here's 16-17 RAPM for regular season and reg+playoffs:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... gw/pubhtml
Butler finished 10th in the regular season and 17th when including playoffs.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 2:38 pm
by Crow
Butler's raw plus minus was -7, third worst on team. It may be that his raw production (mostly offensive) was just not that "meaningful" when you add in shot defense and various impacts on teammates. Given the raw plus minus, the RAPM value seems quite plausible. It seems implausible that he was great and still the team plus minus with him on court was THAT pathetic. Theoretically possible but not compellingly plausible. Winshares / 48 and BPM had hin as barely above average player in playoffs... like RAPM and my inferred RPM.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 3:08 pm
by JoshEngleman
You're in Asheville. I notice your stuff by default.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:54 am
by Jinxed
Thanks Shadow. Do you plan on doing a prior informed version as well?
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:01 am
by shadow
I corrected an error in my code, Butler is now 12th and 18th in regular season and reg+playoffs respectively.
There were about 20 games the statsnba package couldn't process due to issues with the play by play. So until I figure out how to fix those issues I probably won't be posting any more ratings.
Re: Inferred playoff RPM?
Posted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 2:00 pm
by Mike G
Using Crow's suggestions -- RS RPM from knarsu table, RS+PS from espn -- here are biggest gainers in RPM due to their playoffs:
Code: Select all
RPM+ w playoffs tm min RPM
1.10 LeBron James Cle 744 8.42
.94 Kawhi Leonard SAS 429 7.08
.73 Draymond Green GSW 593 7.14
.72 Markieff Morris Was 373 1.86
.68 Boris Diaw Uta 203 -3.08
.66 Otto Porter Was 428 3.56
.64 Deron Williams Cle 262 -.22
.62 Kevin Love Cle 578 5.03
.57 Terry Rozier Bos 277 -1.06
.55 Taj Gibson OkC 118 .26
.55 George Hill Uta 281 3.75
So LeBron was at 7.32 at season's end; leapt to 8.42 with playoffs.
Boris dragged his up from -3.76
Biggest losers:
Code: Select all
RPM+ w playoffs tm min RPM
-.92 Kelly Oubre Was 184 -2.43
-.73 Patrick Patterson Tor 185 2.31
-.69 Al Horford Bos 610 1.82
-.66 Jerami Grant OkC 111 -4.71
-.64 Channing Frye Cle 154 1.04
-.63 Tyler Zeller Bos 78 -2.30
-.61 Avery Bradley Bos 645 -2.16
-.56 JJ Redick LAC 206 -.38
-.49 Andrew Harrison Mem 119 -1.58
-.48 Nikola Mirotic Chi 162 2.23
Median for 213 playoff participants is -.02
Inferred playoff RPM leaders, 99+ minutes:
Code: Select all
PO RPM inferred tm RS +PO
12.6 LeBron James Cle 7.3 8.4
12.5 Kawhi Leonard SAS 6.1 7.1
10.6 Russell Westbrook OkC 6.0 6.3
10.2 Draymond Green GSW 6.4 7.1
9.9 Blake Griffin LAC 3.5 3.8
9.5 Taj Gibson OkC -.3 .3
8.8 Stephen Curry GSW 7.1 7.4
8.1 Mike Conley Mem 4.1 4.5
7.6 Myles Turner Ind 2.4 2.7
7.6 Otto Porter Jr. Was 2.9 3.6
7.1 Kyle Lowry Tor 5.7 5.9
7.1 Kevin Love Cle 4.4 5.0
6.8 George Hill Uta 3.2 3.8
6.7 Chris Paul LAC 8.1 7.9
6.4 Markieff Morris Was 1.1 1.9
6.2 Kevin Durant GSW 5.6 5.7
5.9 Nene Hilario Hou 1.8 2.3
5.8 Steven Adams OkC 1.1 1.4
5.4 Joe Ingles Uta 2.1 2.6
4.9 James Harden Hou 4.8 4.8
And the worst with 99+ min.
Code: Select all
poRPM inferred tm RS +PO
-13.8 Jerami Grant OkC -4.1 -4.7
-10.5 Kelly Oubre Was -1.5 -2.4
-7.6 Andrew Harrison Mem -1.1 -1.6
-6.9 Bojan Bogdanovic Was -3.5 -3.9
-6.8 Noah Vonleh Por -2.7 -3.0
-6.4 JJ Redick LAC .2 -.4
-5.7 Paul Zipser Chi -3.2 -3.6
-5.1 Jaylen Brown Bos -3.1 -3.4
-4.8 Channing Frye Cle 1.7 1.0
-4.5 Dennis Schroder Atl -2.3 -2.5
A few more with 50-99 minutes:
Code: Select all
poRPM inferred tm RS +PO
-7.1 Matt Barnes GSW -1.1 -1.3
-6.6 Kevin Seraphin Ind -3.7 -4.0
-6.5 Tyler Zeller Bos -1.7 -2.3
-5.9 Isaiah Canaan Chi -3.8 -4.1
-5.8 Alex Abrines OkC -1.8 -2.1
These guys take the brunt of the star players' tendency to step up.