APBRmetrics

Posted: **Tue Jul 12, 2016 7:27 am**

Duncan is done. He ranks high in a bunch of career stats; higher when you add playoffs.
Total Rebounds:

rebounds   RS     PO      T      T3po
Wilt     23924   3913   27837   30878
Russell  21620   4104   25724   29608
Kareem   17440   2481   19921   21395
Duncan   15091   2859   17950   20650

Hayes    16279   1244   17523   16755
Moses    16212   1295   17507   16855
Malone   14968   2062   17030   18160

Malone refers to Karl, the Mailman.
Ranked by T = RS+PO
T3po is an alternate total that counts playoffs 3 times; RS is given just .80 credit. These factors allow a player with 10% of his total in playoffs to have the same as simple RS+PO

Since 1974 we know offensive and defensive rebounds:

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Def Reb    RS     PO      T      T3po
Duncan   11232   2081   13313   15229
Malone   11406   1560   12966   13805
Garnett  11453   1214   12667   12804
Parish   10117   1194   11311   11676
Moses    10452    843   11295   10891

Duncan's stupendous playoff numbers put him well ahead -- after Wilt, Russell, Kareem.

His first 9 seasons, he's listed as PF; after that he's mostly C. He's among only C's in blocks, since '74:

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Blocks    RS     PO     T    T3po
Hakeem   3830   472   4302   4480
Kareem   3189   476   3665   3979
Duncan   3020   568   3588   4120
Mutombo  3289   251   3540   3384
Eaton    3064   210   3274   3081

Robinson 2954   312   3266   3299
Ewing    2894   303   3197   3224
Shaq     2732   459   3191   3563

In PO, he totaled more blocks than Robinson and Mutombo.

Not known for prodigious scoring of late, he shows up at #14 all-time. With playoffs, he's 9th among the 14:

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Points   RS      PO      T      T3po
Kareem  38387   5762   44149   47996
Malone  36928   4761   41689   43825
Kobe    33643   5640   39283   43834
Jordan  32292   5987   38279   43795
Wilt    31419   3607   35026   35956

Shaq    28596   5250   33846   38627
Dirk    29491   3663   33154   34582
LeBron  26833   5572   32405   38182
Duncan  26496   5172   31668   36713
Hakeem  26946   3755   30701   32822

Hayes   27313   2194   29507   28432
Moses   27409   2077   29486   28158
Oscar   26710   1910   28620   27098
Wilkins 26668   1423   28091   25603

In Win Shares, his PO pushes him ahead of Stockton:

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Win Sh.   RS      PO      T      T3po
Kareem   273.4   35.6   309.0   325.5
Wilt     247.3   31.5   278.8   292.3
Malone   234.6   23.0   257.6   256.7
Jordan   214.0   39.8   253.8   290.6
Duncan   206.4   37.8   244.2   278.5

LeBron   192.5   41.6   234.1   278.8
Stockton 207.7   21.4   229.1   230.4
Dirk     198.8   23.1   221.9   228.3
Garnett  191.4   16.4   207.8   202.3

It's defensive WS that better define him :

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Def WS   RS      PO      T      T3po
Russell 133.6   21.8   155.4   172.3
Duncan  106.3   17.4   123.7   137.2
Wilt     93.9   15.8   109.7   122.5
Kareem   94.5   13.7   108.2   116.7
Hakeem   94.5   10.7   105.2   107.7
Malone   92.4   11.6   104.0   108.7
Garnett  91.5    9.3   100.8   101.1

And then VORP's take on it, since 1974.

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VORP      RS      PO     T      T3po
LeBron   108.6   26.8  135.4   167.3
Jordan   104.4   22.8  127.2   152.0
Malone   102.5   11.2  113.7   115.6
Duncan    89.3   18.6  107.9   127.2
Barkley   93.5   11.3  104.8   108.7

Garnett   94.0    8.8  102.8   101.6
Kareem    86.0   13.2   99.2   108.4
Magic     77.4   17.8   95.2   115.3
Bird      79.7   15.4   95.1   110.0
Hakeem    77.2   13.2   90.4   101.3

Robinson  80.9    8.8   89.7    91.1
Kidd      78.2   10.9   89.1    95.3
Shaq      74.0   15.0   89.0   104.2
Drexler   75.6   11.0   86.6    93.4
Kobe      72.1   14.0   86.1    99.6
Pippen    69.6   16.1   85.7   103.9

Posted: **Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:41 pm**

At the end of the RS, Duncan was virtually tied (at 2nd) with Russell in what I call equivalent rebounds -- adjusted to total rebounds of every team-season.
Then he got 48 in the PO.
Both trail Wilt by > 1500.

Posted: **Tue Jul 12, 2016 3:09 pm**

Any chance that we could see an update of your career statistical ratings?
It seems that it has been a couple of seasons since there has been an update. I would be interested to see what movement has happened since the last update, especially with Lebron, but also others.

Posted: **Tue Jul 12, 2016 9:23 pm**

Dang, I cannot seem to find an update on this forum, thru 2015.
I was late getting around to it, and I am waiting for the mood to strike this year. Or a rainy day.

Thru 2014 and 2015, the 1-4 player-careers were: Jordan, Kareem, Wilt, Duncan
LeBron moved from 7 to 5, passing Shaq and Malone.
Wade went from 22 to 20, passing Pettit and Pippen.
P Gasol and D Howard rose from 39 and 40, to 34 and 35; Chris Paul from 51 to 37. Several guys dropped 3 spots.

Durant dropped from 46 to 47 -- passed nobody, but passed by Paul. Ginobili and Parker each moved up one.
Westbrook from 72 to 63; Carmelo drops a spot.
Bosh from 89 to 83; Zach 111 to 94; Griffin from 159 to 96! Rondo 107 to 99.

Curry went from 298 to 121; Harden 265 to 142; M Gasol 238 to 158; Millsap 219 to 161; Aldridge 198 to 163.
Horford 276 to 192; Rose 267 to 217; Love 317 to 224.

Top debuts -- careers reaching 10,000 equiv. Pts+Reb+etc -- Wall 304, Cousins 305, Teague 388, Gortat 408, Lawson 414, DeAndre 445

I can email the 2015 spreadsheet to anyone who requests it and provides an email address.

Posted: **Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:25 am**

How did Duncan match up against his rivals? Did anyone seem to have his number, like Ostertag contained Shaq?
From this list of most minutes by a C or C-F or F-C from 1997-2016 --
http://bkref.com/tiny/BPYVB
-- Of 22 others who played at least 20,000 minutes in the interval, Duncan played 16 of them 1000 minutes or more, playoffs included.
All played in the West or met the Spurs in the Finals.

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G     Min     opp
62   2415   Shaquille O'Neal
54   2081   Erick Dampier
55   2034   Amar'e Stoudemire
49   1903   Rasheed Wallace
55   1849   Pau Gasol
44   1520   Marcus Camby
37   1384   Antonio McDyess
38   1273   Nene Hilario
36   1232   Tyson Chandler
34   1130   Samuel Dalembert
31   1118   Boris Diaw
34   1096   Al Jefferson
31   1072   Brad Miller
32   1026   Carlos Boozer
30   1021   Chris Bosh
28   1007   Ben Wallace

These are just the minutes Duncan played in the games these guys were present. Mano a mano minutes would be somewhat less.
Here are their per 36 minute rates in matchups; T is just a total (minus TO) of all stats w Pts/36 multiplied by TS%/.527

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per36      TSA    TS%    Pts    Reb   Ast  Stl   Blk    TO    T
Duncan    19.9   .548   21.8   10.9   2.5   .6   2.4   3.0   36.0
Shaq      20.2   .517   20.9   11.7   2.3   .7   2.0   2.4   34.8

Duncan    19.4   .561   21.8   10.2   2.9   .7   1.8   2.6   36.2
Dampier    8.6   .513    8.8    9.1   1.0   .4   1.9   2.0   18.9

Duncan    18.6   .573   21.3   12.5   3.3   .6   2.6   2.5   39.6
Amar'e    19.9   .562   22.4    9.3   1.1  1.1   1.6   2.5   34.4

Duncan    17.4   .508   17.7   11.4   2.6   .6   2.1   2.4   31.2
Rasheed   15.9   .488   15.6    6.9   1.7  1.1   1.7   1.4   24.4

per36      TSA    TS%    Pts    Reb   Ast  Stl   Blk    TO    T
Duncan    18.3   .531   19.4   11.8   3.3  1.1   2.1   2.3   35.6
P Gasol   16.1   .538   17.3    8.9   3.3   .7   1.8   2.3   30.0

Duncan    18.5   .548   20.3   11.1   3.4   .8   2.8   2.7   36.5
Camby     10.7   .460    9.8   12.6   1.6  1.1   2.8   1.9   24.8

Duncan    19.4   .518   20.1   11.2   2.4   .8   1.9   2.4   33.7
McDyess   16.0   .517   16.6   10.8   1.8  1.2   1.8   1.9   30.0

Duncan    18.2   .534   19.4   12.1   4.2   .7   2.8   2.4   37.1
Hilario   12.2   .542   13.3    7.1   2.0  1.3    .6   2.3   22.3

per36      TSA    TS%    Pts    Reb   Ast  Stl   Blk    TO    T
Duncan    16.0   .576   18.4   11.9   2.8   .7   2.3   2.3   35.5
Chandler   7.8   .649   10.1   10.6   1.1   .5   1.3   2.1   23.9

Duncan    17.7   .563   19.9   11.1   2.5   .5   2.1   2.4   35.2
Dalembert 10.0   .460    9.1   12.8    .5   .9   2.8   1.3   23.6

Duncan    21.1   .537   22.7   12.2   2.9   .6   2.5   2.7   38.6
Diaw      12.3   .519   12.8    5.8   4.5   .8    .7   2.4   22.0

Duncan    17.7   .550   19.4   12.5   3.3  1.1   2.9   2.4   37.6
Jefferson 18.5   .527   19.5    8.9   1.7   .9   1.3   1.4   31.0

per36      TSA    TS%    Pts    Reb   Ast  Stl   Blk    TO    T
Duncan    18.1   .565   20.5   11.1   3.3  1.2   2.3   2.3   37.5
B Miller  11.1   .479   10.7    8.1   3.9   .9    .9   1.9   21.6

Duncan    18.0   .549   19.7   11.5   2.6   .8   2.4   2.8   35.2
Boozer    16.8   .535   18.0   10.0   2.7  1.2    .7   2.6   30.3

Duncan    17.5   .569   19.9   11.9   2.4   .7   1.6   2.7   35.4
Bosh      15.3   .535   16.3    8.9   2.2  1.2    .9   1.4   28.3

Duncan    18.6   .513   19.1   12.2   2.7   .6   1.9   2.9   33.2
B Wallace  8.0   .481    7.7   10.2   1.7  1.9   2.2   1.2   21.8

Duncan    19.0   .527   20.0   10.7   3.2   .6   2.0   2.7   33.8
Ilgauskas 15.1   .487   14.7    9.9   1.3   .6   1.5   2.2   24.6

I threw Z in, since I had done the numbers. They met 24 times, 7-800 min.

Duncan was outscored by Amar'e and (barely) Al Jefferson.
He was outrebounded by Shaq, Camby, and Dalembert.
Bigger passers were Diaw and B Miller; Gasol and Boozer were equal.
Dalembert also got more blocks, and Ben. A few were close.

Posted: **Fri Jul 22, 2016 1:01 pm**

Duncan only missed the playoffs one time, in 2000 due to injury late in the RS.
He is the all-time leader in postseason minutes (9370); almost 1000 ahead of LeBron, for now. He's safely 1st in PO rebounds and blocks; 6th in points; 3rd in Win Shares and VORP (after LeBron and Jordan).

His career RS and PO rates look like this:

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TD   PER   TS%   ORb%  DRb%   Ast%  Stl%  Blk%   TO%   Usg%   WS/48  BPM
RS  24.2  .551   9.7   26.5   16.4  1.1   4.6   12.3   27.0   .209   5.5
PO  24.3  .548   9.9   25.1   16.0  1.0   4.5   11.8   27.0   .194   5.9

Very close at every point, even with increased competition in playoffs.
But this could be biased, if a disproportionate number of his playoff minutes came in his best or weakest years.
To check this, we look at year by year comparisons:

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.     Regular Season      Playoffs
year  PER  ws/48  BPM    Min   PER  ws/48  BPM
1998  22.6  .192  5.5    374  20.4  .155   3.9
1999  23.2  .213  4.9    733  25.1  .243   7.5
2000  24.8  .218  6.1          
2001  23.8  .200  5.4    526  25.4  .173   7.6
2002  27.0  .257  7.6    380  31.8  .247  10.4
2003  26.9  .248  7.4   1021  28.4  .279  11.6
2004  27.1  .249  7.3    405  24.1  .183   5.7
2005  27.0  .245  6.4    869  24.9  .191   4.1
2006  23.1  .187  4.6    493  30.4  .252   7.5
2007  26.1  .230  7.1    736  27.4  .214   7.2
2008  24.4  .201  4.7    666  21.9  .123   3.7
2009  24.4  .191  4.6    164  27.3  .171   4.7
2010  24.7  .215  5.6    373  19.7  .091   1.9
2011  21.9  .171  3.8    212  15.5  .053    .8
2012  22.5  .174  2.4    463  22.9  .184   4.5
2013  24.4  .191  4.1    735  21.3  .161   2.1
2014  21.3  .164  3.2    752  21.1  .204   4.4
2015  22.6  .207  5.5    250  24.2  .229   7.7
2016  16.9  .163  4.1    218  11.6  .083   1.0
                
tot.  24.2  .209  5.5   9370  24.1  .192   6.0

These 'total' playoff rates are from annual minutes-weighted differences from RS. Virtually identical to career PO rates, so no bias from minutes distribution.
In playoffs, his BPM is greater than in RS -- BPM accounts for level of competition.

That 2003 title run, when he led the Spurs in everything, is still the highest individual PO output in both WS and VORP.

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