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Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:44 am
by Crow
I don't know them well at this point. I might try to learn more. Do you have recommended articles to suggest? Want to share your take? I'd read other takes. Preferably before offering my own.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:25 pm
by Dr Positivity
The top of the Bucks lineup is fine, but they had too many bad players getting minutes last year. Mayo, Ennis, O'Bryant, Vaughn, Vasquez in addition to post injury Parker and MCW is a lot of weak links. If they can get some solid play out of players like Delly and Teletovic and get a better Parker, it could move them up. Giannis played like a star when moved to PG and is a darkhorse to finish top 5 in MVP next year in my opinion. Khris Middleton has a chance to be a top 5 SG as a defender and shooter. One of the most difficult players for me to rate in the league is Greg Monroe. He is the poster boy of the style of big man the league is moving away from, as a post playing C who doesn't defend. Bucks fans who watch him every game deride him and want to dump him. However he has a quality 1.5 BPM, .155 WS/48 last year and 1.9 BPM, .153 the year before. He is RPM is mediocre (31st among Cs) although the raw on/off is positive. I'd argue they should keep him next season and see if his positive WS and BPM can translate into positive value for their team. If they continue to bench him he could reinvent himself as a the PF/C version of a Jamal Crawford or Jason Terry and embrace being the 6th man with defensive weaknesses who puts up a lot of PPG off the bench. Worst case scenario is he picks up his player option and becomes an expiring contract, but even if that happens there may be a team with capspace willing to trade for 1 year of Monroe. Overall I think the Bucks have the talent to be a 40-45 W team with an outside chance of Giannis going nuts and getting them near 50
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:11 am
by rlee
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:25 pm
by Crow
Thanks. I will read both sets of material and probably react later.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:18 am
by rlee
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:30 pm
by Crow
Ok, after reading the supplied material, checking a few things and thinking about it for few minutes, here are my initial thoughts:
Start Delly, Giannis, Middleton, Teletovic, Monroe.
Parker is real young but he didn't get any better last season. He is a tweener who neither rebounds, shoots well or defends above average or even average for a starter. If he doesn't improve a lot in year 3, I'd trade him.
Probably have to trade Monroe but I'd work real hard to make it work in first part of season. They are not making playoffs while he is there without him being featured / optimized with shooters.
Giannis can be PG or positionless on offense but he is least harmful guarding SGs. Middleton does alright guarding SFs.
They have at least 6 major team flaws- 3pt shooting, defensive rebounding, turnovers, getting to line, opponent 3 pt shooting and pace. Their free agent acquisitions may help with 3pt shooting (if they can get the ball and shot from other players who probably don't want to give much up) and turnovers but they probably remain problems as do the other 4. This team is far from being fixed. Years and multiple trades away. And probably a new coach before they get to second round, someday.
Giannis-Middleton is probably the core of cores but last season they were just short of neutral on plus minus. The team 3pta differential was HUGE. They have tried to fix that but if it doesn't work... they'll have to keep trying or think the unthinkable and trade one of them. Your core of cores has to produce edge, usually a lot to do anything more than a first round exit. Short of neutral is not near enough.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:56 pm
by rlee
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:15 pm
by Crow
Thanks.
Bucks' lineup management will be critical. Can have principles (like always have one of Giannis and Middleton on court, one of Delly or Teletovic, only one of Monroe or Parker, etc.) or the team can let Kidd wing it.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Sun Aug 07, 2016 3:11 pm
by rlee
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Sun Aug 07, 2016 3:53 pm
by Crow
Monroe had close to a plus 2 RPM estimate in 2013-14, somewhat short of plus 3 in 2014-15 then just plus 0.7 last season. Maybe he is a plus 2 player. Maybe Kidd isn't as good a coach as Van Gundy. Maybe the Bucks player mix is too weird. One thing that probably should change is the starting lineup with MCW and Parker. It was about -7 per 100 possessions and Monroe's by far biggest minute lineup. His next 4 lineups were all much better. Will it change? If it doesn't what does that say about the coaching / management? Stubborn? Unswayed by moderate sample size? Will they be vindicated?
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:49 pm
by AcrossTheCourt
Crow=Seth confirmed.
I think most people here think they need to jettison Monroe, which won't be easy, and they should probably replace him with a mobile center. WCS? I don't think the Kings value him.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Thu Aug 11, 2016 10:29 pm
by Crow
Given our stated perspectives on RPM, it should be clear we are not the same.
If we agree on something about the Bucks, ok. Probably disagree on other Bucks questions or will in time.
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:06 pm
by Crow
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 2:27 pm
by rlee
Re: Expectations / advice for the Bucks
Posted: Sat Sep 03, 2016 11:47 pm
by Crow
Will probably listen to that podcast later and maybe comment.