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2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:19 pm
by Mike G
http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.cgi
The above page gives a daily update on MVP Award probability based on factors leading to previous winners.
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prob. MVP tm W% VORP WS
.323 Durant GSW .870 2.1 5.0
.303 Harden Hou .682 2.4 4.6
.147 Westbrook OKC .636 3.2 3.6
.065 Curry GSW .870 1.7 4.0
.060 LeBron Cle .750 1.6 3.1
.039 Paul LAC .696 2.4 4.6
.020 Kawhi SAS .783 1.7 3.9
.014 Butler Chi .545 1.8 4.6
.011 Lowry Tor .682 1.6 3.4
.010 Love Cle .750 .8 3.0
Anthony Davis leads the league in Pts/G, Blk/G, and PER; but he plays for a non-contender.
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 12:17 pm
by Mike G
Sudden switcheroo.
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prob. MVP tm W% VORP WS eWin
.333 Harden Hou .708 2.6 4.9 4.8
.227 Durant GSW .833 2.2 5.1 4.7
.142 LeBron Cle .773 2.0 3.8 3.8
.103 Westbrook OKC .609 3.3 3.6 5.7
.065 Paul LAC .708 2.6 5.0 4.0
.045 Curry GSW .833 1.7 4.0 3.7
.028 Kawhi SAS .792 1.8 4.2 3.9
.022 Butler Chi .565 1.9 4.9 3.8
.018 Lowry Tor .696 1.9 3.8 3.4
.017 Love Cle .773 .9 3.5 3.2
eWins do not include last night's games.
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GmSc mvp? Pts Rb As
40.0 LeBron 44 9 10
29.5 Butler 31 7 5
28.9 Paul 20 5 20
27.0 Kawhi 30 6 3
21.9 Harden 18 9 16
17.9 Love 22 6 1
17.2 Durant 21 7 1
_8.9 Curry 17 8 3
LeBron's outburst last night is his first GmSc > 40 (in RS) since his return to Cle. It's #19 in his career; Harden has 8, Dirk 7, Steph and Paul 6, ..
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Fri Dec 16, 2016 4:22 pm
by Mike G
Harden pulls away, and DeRozan bumps Butler.
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prob. mvp tm W% PER WS VORP
.457 Harden Hou .731 27.8 5.4 2.8
.175 Durant GSW .852 27.5 5.3 2.2
.111 LeBron Cle .750 26.3 3.9 2.2
.074 Paul LAC .731 27.8 5.3 2.7
.050 Curry GSW .852 24.8 4.4 1.9
.044 Westbrook OKC .577 28.5 3.6 3.5
.035 Kawhi SAS .808 27.2 4.6 2.0
.022 Lowry Tor .720 22.7 4.2 2.0
.020 Love Cle .750 25.4 3.8 1.1
.013 DeRozan Tor .720 25.7 3.7 .8
---- Butler Chi .520 26.8 5.1 2.0
Not among the b-r.com top 20: Lowry's PER, Love and DeRozan's vorp.
Just 2 teams represent the East, with 2 players each.
Anthony Davis still leads the league in PER, Pts/G, and Blk/G. He's 3rd in DReb and 7th in DRtg. For the .333 NOP.
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:06 am
by shadow
I can see the logic in Harden being number one over Durant when you consider who their teammates are, but I don't quite understand why Harden is such a commanding favorite over Durant given that Durant has better numbers across the board except for assists and FTs. Perhaps it's also factoring in the lower expectations for Houston going into this season? (which they're on pace to drastically exceed at this point)
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:36 am
by Nathan
Houston's on pace to finish with 58 wins according to 538, 14.5 wins better than their preseason vegas line. Second place in that category, as of right now, is Toronto (projected 6.5 games better than their vegas line). That along with his statistical resume and head-to-head wins against GS and OKC recently makes Harden MVP so far in my eyes.
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:00 am
by shadow
Right. I have no qualms with him being the favorite or eventually winning it when you factor in those details. I'm more interested in what it is in the B-R formula that puts him at a 45% to 17% advantage over Durant, considering the stats they reference on that page show a pretty clear edge for Durant in all but 2 categories. My guess is their model is penalizing Durant's chances a bit for having another MVP caliber player in Curry on his team since voters tend to look more favorably on guys who are the sole star on their team (Rose over LBJ in 2010-11 for instance).
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Tue Dec 27, 2016 10:59 am
by Mike G
It's a bit more like a 'race'.
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prob mvp tm Win% PER WS VORP eW82
.377 Harden Hou .719 27.4 6.5 3.4 17.2
.213 Durant GSW .844 28.2 6.7 2.8 16.4
.128 Westbrook OKC .613 30.7 5.2 4.5 21.0
.120 LeBron Cle .767 26.6 4.8 2.8 15.6
.037 Curry GSW .844 23.9 5.2 2.3 12.6
.035 Kawhi SAS .806 27.3 5.6 2.4 14.1
.031 Paul LAC .667 27.1 5.7 2.8 13.5
.030 Lowry Tor .733 23.5 5.3 2.5 12.5
.017 Love Cle .767 25.1 4.3 1.2 12.1
.010 Giannis Mil .483 28.2 5.4 3.2 15.7
. A Davis NOP .364 28.8 4.9 2.0 16.4
. Cousins Sac .452 27.7 4.0 2.1 16.7
A couple non-contenders with nice numbers are thrown in.
Harden peeked above 50% for a day or so, then dropped to 35%. His team is now over .700, so maybe that helps.
Giannis is new to the list, bumping DeRozan. He's tied for 3rd in PER, 5th in WS/48, 3rd in VORP -- ahead of everyone in at least one of these.
The media seem to love to make it about a West star vs an East star. LeBron has taken up the Jordan hobby of crushing the MVP in the playoffs. Otherwise the west is dominant in superstars.
On Sunday, Chauncey Billups was certain this is Westbrook's party.
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:38 pm
by Mike G
... I don't quite understand why Harden is such a commanding favorite over Durant given that Durant has better numbers across the board except for assists and FTs...
I think mvp voting is historically about 2 things: Team success and per-game averages. Presume that's why these elements are shown at the b-r.com tracker page.
Harden now with roughly the same chance as everyone else combined.
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prob per game W% Pts Reb Ast Stl Blk TO
.483 Harden .735 27.8 7.9 11.8 1.4 .3 5.6
.197 Durant .853 25.9 8.9 4.8 1.1 1.6 2.3
.100 LeBron .774 25.4 7.9 8.6 1.4 .6 3.9
.077 Westbrook .606 31.3 10.5 10.6 1.3 .3 5.5
.038 Leonard .818 24.4 6.0 3.1 2.0 .5 2.0
.036 Curry .853 23.9 4.2 5.9 1.7 .1 2.7
.020 Paul .629 17.7 5.3 9.5 2.2 .2 2.3
.019 Lowry .688 22.2 4.8 7.3 1.5 .3 2.9
.018 Love .774 22.0 10.9 1.7 1.1 .5 2.0
.009 Giannis .484 23.4 8.9 5.9 2.0 1.8 3.0
Stl, Blk, and TO might be tiebreaker stats after the big 3. Among these, Harden leads in Ast, 2nd in Pts, middling in Reb -- which is amazing for a PG.
The Bucks are given an 88% chance of reaching the playoffs. The Anthony Davises are at 11%
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:52 pm
by Mike G
Code: Select all
.564 Harden
.157 Durant
.092 LeBron
.074 Westbrook
.030 Leonard
etc
What a 53-16-17 game will do. Never mind 8 TO.
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:01 pm
by Voyaging
What's interesting though is that Westbrook is still an overwhelming favorite in Vegas.
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Westbrook -200
Harden +300
James +500
Leonard +1000
Durant +1500
Kinda shocked by that. What do they know that we don't? It looks like basketball-reference's algorithm might just be way off.
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 8:58 pm
by shadow
The size of the market dictates the efficiency of the lines, since the larger markets with the highest maximum bets attract the most action from professional bettors and syndicates, whose large bets drive the lines towards the true odds (once you strip out the vig) and are enough to outweigh the larger number of smaller bets made by recreational gamblers. I'm not in Vegas and I can't find MVP odds on any of the usual offshore sites at the moment, so I don't know what the maximum bet is on the MVP winner, but I'm willing to guess it's around 1K at most places. When you compare that to what you can bet offshore at Pinnacle/CRIS on NBA spreads (25K) and totals (5K), obviously it becomes more difficult for professional money to overwhelm the public money like it does in larger markets. That's also assuming professionals even bother wagering on the MVP at all. Between the lower limits and being forced to tie up money for a long time on a bet that can be derailed by a fluke injury, it's not likely a market that attracts the sharpest professionals. In this case it wouldn't be unusual for Vegas or other sportsbooks to shade the lines towards who they perceive to be the public favorite, especially if they don't consider that player to be the true favorite, in order to increase their house edge. With max bets in the 1K range their exposure to large bets from sharps is limited, especially if they don't allow re-bets from the same person/account like they typically do on spreads/totals.
Another reason these type of bets aren't that attractive to professionals is the amount of vig being charged. For a typical NBA spread/total lined at -110/-110, the house edge is 4.55%. Based on the odds you posted, the house edge for the MVP wager is 19.14% according to the calculator at the link below. Vegas will increase the vig and usually lower the max wager on a proposition when they are less certain of their predictions and also to protect themselves from gamblers who have an information edge over them (i.e. someone hacks the league office and finds out who won the MVP vote before it's announced and wants to place a large wager on that player). An MVP vote that depends on the subjective assessment of a group of reporters isn't exactly the most predictable event most years. Obviously in some years it ends up being a runaway for one player as the season progresses, but the money pouring in on that player should push the odds to their true value and the lower max bets limits the overall exposure.
House edge calculator:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-b ... alculator/
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:09 pm
by Voyaging
shadow wrote:The size of the market dictates the efficiency of the lines, since the larger markets with the highest maximum bets attract the most action from professional bettors and syndicates, whose large bets drive the lines towards the true odds (once you strip out the vig) and are enough to outweigh the larger number of smaller bets made by recreational gamblers. I'm not in Vegas and I can't find MVP odds on any of the usual offshore sites at the moment, so I don't know what the maximum bet is on the MVP winner, but I'm willing to guess it's around 1K at most places. When you compare that to what you can bet offshore at Pinnacle/CRIS on NBA spreads (25K) and totals (5K), obviously it becomes more difficult for professional money to overwhelm the public money like it does in larger markets. That's also assuming professionals even bother wagering on the MVP at all. Between the lower limits and being forced to tie up money for a long time on a bet that can be derailed by a fluke injury, it's not likely a market that attracts the sharpest professionals. In this case it wouldn't be unusual for Vegas or other sportsbooks to shade the lines towards who they perceive to be the public favorite, especially if they don't consider that player to be the true favorite, in order to increase their house edge. With max bets in the 1K range their exposure to large bets from sharps is limited, especially if they don't allow re-bets from the same person/account like they typically do on spreads/totals.
You definitely understand better than I do, but it seems to me that the shading specifically on Harden is far too large. I've never seen that kind of shade. +300 on ~40-50% MVP odds is just absurd.
I'm much more leaning towards basketball-reference's algorithm being poor for this season than I am that Harden is the actual favorite despite being +300. But I guess we'll see how the voting (and season) goes.
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:32 pm
by shadow
Well the market for this bet has been open for quite a while now (probably even before the season started). Most, if not all, of the odds movement at sportsbooks on this wager has likely been driven by money wagered by public/recreational gamblers. That betting activity is what can end up shading the odds towards the public favorite (presumably Westbrook in this case), even if he shouldn't necessarily be the true favorite. Any shading done deliberately by the sportsbooks would have occurred when betting initially opened on this prop before any wagers were placed. I don't imagine there would be a lot of odds adjustments done by the sportsbooks without the influence of money being wagered unless a player suffered a long term injury, or a player just drastically outperforms his preseason expectations early on in the year. Harden opened +1600 in July, moved up to +1000 in October right before the season started and is +300 now based on the odds you posted. So he has either received a fair amount of wagers or sportsbooks are manually adjusting his odds based on his spectacular early season performance. There's no way to know exactly why the odds are moving unless you work for the sportsbook. Just curious, which site did you find those odds at?
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Mon Jan 02, 2017 7:53 pm
by Voyaging
shadow wrote:Well the market for this bet has been open for quite a while now (probably even before the season started). Most, if not all, of the odds movement at sportsbooks on this wager has likely been driven by money wagered by public/recreational gamblers. That betting activity is what can end up shading the odds towards the public favorite (presumably Westbrook in this case), even if he shouldn't necessarily be the true favorite. Any shading done deliberately by the sportsbooks would have occurred when betting initially opened on this prop before any wagers were placed. I don't imagine there would be a lot of odds adjustments done by the sportsbooks without the influence of money being wagered unless a player suffered a long term injury, or a player just drastically outperforms his preseason expectations early on in the year. Harden opened +1600 in July, moved up to +1000 in October right before the season started and is +300 now based on the odds you posted. So he has either received a fair amount of wagers or sportsbooks are manually adjusting his odds based on his spectacular early season performance. There's no way to know exactly why the odds are moving unless you work for the sportsbook. Just curious, which site did you find those odds at?
Sportsbook.ag
The shading is almost certainly mostly to do with his early season performance, which has b-r giving him an almost 50/50 chance to win MVP. I just can't see Vegas offering odds that are so overwhelmingly +EV for bettors.
Re: 2017 MVP tracker
Posted: Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:51 pm
by shadow
OK, if it was sportsbook.ag that makes a little more sense. They're a very shady book with a terrible reputation on SBR with a D- rating. Their review page is littered with articles about payment complaints. Their lines are usually shaded to the "square" side on most regular wagers which is typically the favorite and the over (i.e. if Warriors are -7 at Pinnacle, they'll be at least -7.5 at sportsbook.ag). They don't want any part of serious professional action. They just want squares who will bet the heavy -EV side of their shaded lines so they can take all of their money and have no intention of paying out even if you do win.
SBR review page -
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting ... sbook.com/